Game Changer

NOTE 17.6.17: This article was confirmed and published 3.6.17. Withdrawn 6.6.17 when we became aware of new information and remained so until 17.6.17 when we republished with new information.

This story is now different from the original article published in good faith, however a lot of the gist of it remains true – except that the winning bidder of 2 Myvore, we believe, did not pay the deposit. The we believe has since been resold to the underbidder for a figure well short of the auction figure below, but still well above the reserve, also stated below. We are aware of a figure, but as it is no longer a public auction, we will not publish. Please note neither of these statements have been confirmed by the seller or agent, as all have gone to ground, so there is still some conjecture. If accurate that is a very good recovery effort by the agents and seller, still a strong result and still a strong vote of confidence in the market, despite the surrounding drama.

We are noticing a drop (not a stop) in competition from Overseas Asian Bidding. If this continues, then in the longer term that will affect the Top End, as this buyer segment has been the key driver since the FIRB changes of 2009. However for now the market “steering wheel, engine and gear levers” are being taking up by locals and expats.

Will be an interesting Spring 2017. Stay tuned.

Abercromby

This week the mainstream media again gave air to the impending doom of all Melbourne property, through coverage of Citibank’s international head’s visit to Australia. Whilst some were digesting that, there was a sale that only helped confirm the opposite of Citibank’s constantly reported negative comments, with regards to the Australian property market.

That sale was 2 Myvore Court, with Jock Langley and Tim Derham from ’s. It is a Melbourne Game Changer.

At James Market News there are no blankets (statements) and so the market we are talking about is good quality family homes in Inner Melbourne.

2 Myvore Court, Toorak
What should a home – a very, very good one, over 4 levels with all the bells and whistles in Toorak go for?

Well let us help you work through it.

The block is an average house block for Melbourne at 790 square metres and was purchased/settled two years ago at $4,450,000 – a knock down – that worked out then at $5,600 per sq metre. It was bought at a strong time in the market (2015), possibly when some people were telling all and sundry, that the market was overheated.

Myvore is a good street, but is it one of Melbourne’s or indeed Toorak’s best streets?

Maybe it is now – but last week it wasn’t in most people’s Top 5.

Game Changers
Every couple of years you witness Game Changers – some of the sales in mid 2009 showed us that FIRB amendments had opened the door for large numbers of overseas Asian people wanting to buy established homes in Melbourne. Pricing went from GFC improvers to “WOW! I don’t believe this” in a matter of a few auction weekends and has continued ever since, except for a lull in 2011, when the Aussie dollar rose sharply combined with Chinese regulatory tightening.

Since those sales in 2009, we have also seen Game Changers in Lambeth Avenue, , the Portsea clifftops, Urquhart Estate in , Box Hill and a few others. These Game Changers have influenced the way an area’s real estate is priced in one single transaction.

Another recent Game Changer was the 12 St Georges Road auction, which we covered here in Market News in November 2016. It was the pre-game changer to the Towers Road sale (it gave confidence in so many ways) and again to the current sale of 2 Myvore, the sale we are now talking about.

5 bidders, A grade street, about the same land size as 2 Myvore in 867 sq metres and only a couple a hundred metres away. At $9,020,000 with Warwick Anderson at the helm the new land values were over $10,400 per square metre.

12 St Georges Road, Nov 2016 – 5 bidders, A-grade street, about the same land size as 2 Myvore, on 867 sq metres and only a couple a hundred metres away. At $9,020,000 with at the helm the new land were over $10,400 per square metre.

Whilst 2 Myvore is not St Georges Road, it would be safe to say that 2015’s Myvore land, was now worth above $7,000,000 with the right buyers, after the St Georges and following sales.

This graph in last week’s James Market News supports that Toorak is currently tearing away from the pack, and possibly why Melbourne’s jewels of Hawthorn, and Albert/Middle Park may follow.

WLG172

Anyway, back to 2 Myvore Court, Toorak – the home was built by a builder who truly knows what he is doing and we have seen “Mr Chris Holland’s” previous form in Coppin Street, Hawthorn – a WOW home on similar land to Myvore and well marketed by for a big price.

33 Coppin - Click here for James Home Rating

33 Coppin Hawthorn (Scott Patterson) – Click here for James Home Rating – 847 sqm, $8.8 million, 2011 – WOW

Back to 2 Myvore Court, Toorak with Jock Langley and Tim Derham.

So on top of the land, what was 900 square metres of building valued at?

Was it $5,000 per square metre or $6,000 or more. To put this in perspective, an average home in the middle  is $2,000 to $3,000 per sqm build cost valuation.

So what happened?

Well let’s set the scene – it was an Abercromby’s private auction – they are sort of becoming the rage and sort of not – but this one was obviously a rage – or else you wouldn’t be reading this.

Anyway, there was an intimate group of 3/5 bidders/buyers and advisors gathered around Jock, Andrew, Tim and a few other Abercromby’s staff.

Bidding started at $12,800,000 on a live bid and it was quickly on the market at $13,800,000 – which was within the agent quote $13m – $14.3m. Yeah, I know – WOW – that is the biggest on the the market announcement I can remember! Anyway, it was only just warming up and strong bidding continued to ……………….

Drum roll please…….

$19.1 million - yep – $19.1 million – for a very good home on a normal Toorak block.

Congratulations to the buyer and commiserations to others. Expats and locals is where the interest came from, according to Jock and Tim.

$19.1 million – is one hell of a confidence stamp for Melbourne property – that’s over $24,000 per improved sqm. Great result for the builder/seller, great result for Abercromby’s reputation and a great result for Melbourne.

If the mainstream media and Citibank continues to go on and on negatively over the next few years/decades, then eventually they will be right.

However our best advice right now in 2017, is for them to get out more and drop the blanket statements; because right now, the headlines and press releases being produced are not what is actually happening in the Inner Melbourne family home market.

In the last few years, I have travelled to major cities in a dozen countries, on all continents bar Antarctica and to those that think Melbourne is not one of the great iconic cities of the world with an incredible culture, lifestyle and real estate; then I beg to differ.

Thanks for your thoughts Mr Citibank –  yes, you are welcome to make comments about Australia’s real estate, just be a little more accurate, consistent and polite please, when on our shores…

Footnote: Our data to support our comments on the anecdotal 2 Myvore and this opinion piece are the final results of our 100 Auction 3-Week Challenge, reported last week, plus time in the actual market and on the streets. Yes, the Inner Melbourne family home market will change and let’s report it openly when it does. At the moment this market is vibrant.

6 Royal Crescent Armadale, Gowan Stubbings, bought under the hammer for $5,100,000 with three bidders. Last sold two years ago for $4,100,000 - no change to building. 3 Bidders - young and Asian or Asian/Australian -multicultural. James Home Rating 621/1000 click here.

6 Royal Crescent Armadale, Gowan Stubbings, bought under the hammer for $5,100,000 with three bidders. Last sold two years ago for $4,100,000 – no change to building. 3 Bidders – young and Asian or Asian/Australian -multicultural. James Home Rating 621/1000 click here.

Inside James

At James Buyer Advocates we have bought 4 homes in the last 24 hours (3/6/17). An off market in Richmond (Luke Schickerling), an EOI in Red Hill (Wendy Tallon), before auction in Kew (Simon Curtain) and one under the hammer (Adam Docking). As we ease towards the mid-year break, you will start to see less and less new stock in the $4m to $8m range and less and less agents around, to sell it to you. Things will pick up again after the July hiatus, in early August – both on and off market. James Market News returns early August – our James Buyer Advocates office is open all through the Winter break on 9804-3133.

James


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