James Paynter in action at 66 Victoria Sandringham - sold under the hammer for $3,500,000 - 3 bidders.

Saturday May 20th Biggest Auctions:

• Canterbury, 35 Monomeath Ave, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White) passed in and bought afterwards, $4,200,000+, no bidders
  The weather was still and the crowd was strong at this auction – with about 100 people in attendance…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Sandringham, 66 Victoria St, James Paynter (Hodges), under the hammer, $3,500,000, 3 bidders
  An amazing Sandringham house in a popular street, and a decent sized crowd of around 50 had turned up to see what would happen at auction on Saturday…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Fitzroy North, 39 Alfred Crescent, Arch Staver (Nelson Alexander) under the hammer for $4,200,000, 3 bidders
• Caulfield North, 3 Airdrie Road, Darren Krongold (Gary Peer) at auction a tiddly bit under $3,000,000.
• Toorak, 2 Brookville Road, Heather Elder (Marshall White) at auction also a tiddly bit under $3,000,000.

• Kew, 61-63 Alfred St,  passed in, $5,300,000, 2 bidders
  “A landmark auction” were the words that auctioneer Richard James used to describe this auction…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Kew, 1 Selbourne Rd, passed in, $3,670,000, 2 bidders
  Landmark Kew property and this auction was well supported by a solid crowd of around 100 people….(See More in Auction Reports)
• Toorak, 29 Linlithgow, passed in, $3,500,000

35 Hampden Armadale - Over $9,000,000 (Jeremy Fox)

Friday 18th May: Some more $8M+ activity this week with 35 Hampden Armadale (Jeremy Fox) on the public market for a week and sold somewhere between $9,000,000 and $10,000,000. The Art Deco home with tennis court on over 1800 square metres had a James Rating of over 850/1000 for full reports see below and 129 Domain Road (a block of high end apartments) sold through Andrew Baines and Jock Langley for in excess of $8,000,000.

Top End apartments have seen a few sales this last fortnight or so with Peter Kudelka  selling Springfield avenue Toorak before auction for we believe in the mid $3m’s and Marcus Chiminello has sold two apartments at 103 Mathoura Road – including the penthouse for over $4,000,000 and ground floor number 2 for over $3,000,000. These sales represent per sqm rates according of $12,000 plus.

Canterbury 162 Mont Albert Road. Scott Patterson and Tim Picken. Bought Under the Hammer $4,166,000, 3 bidders

Saturday May 12th: Some solid results at the Top End this weekend with 4 from 4 above 4

• Toorak, 10 Rathmines St, Jeremy Fox (RT Edgar), after auction, above $4,300,000
  Auctioneer Jeremy Fox looked quite regal positioned in front of this imposing property flanked by his support team…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Canterbury, 162 Mont Albert Rd, Scott Patterson (Kay & Burton), under the hammer, $4,166,000, 3 bidders
  A medium size crowd gathered in the front garden of this home on the Golden Mile…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Balwyn, 6-8 Fitzgerald St, Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig),under the hammer, $4,025,000, 2 bidders
  The team at Jellis Craig had a reason to smile today, especially Alastair Craig with four of his auctions selling including this property…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Kew, 50 Fellows St, Tom Aylward (Jellis Craig), under the hammer, $4,000,000 plus, 2 bidders.

At $3m it was 50/50 on 8 sales expected to be around $3m and above

• Carlton North, 57 Wilson, Peter Stephens (Nelson Alexander) at auction over $3,500,000
• Richmond, 51 Richmond Terrace, James Tostevin, at auction over $3,000,000
• Armadale, 24 Denbigh Rd, John Morrisby (Jellis Craig), after auction for an amount in excess of $3,000,000,  4 bidders
  John Morrisby kindly provided us with the following information…(See More in Auction Reports)

And some of the pass-ins

• Toorak, 9 Landale Rd, passed in $3,000,000, no bidders
  Showing an affinity for round numbers, auctioneer Gowan Stubbings kicked things off with a vendor bid of $3,000,000…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Middle Park, 68 Park Rd, passed in $2,850,000, no bidders
  A crowd of 60, including a number of young children and dogs, stood widely dispersed in the tree lined street…(See More in Auction Report)
• Brighton, 5 Birdwood Ave, passed in $2,800,000, no bidders
  The sun shone brightly in the front yard of this Spanish Mission style home in Brighton’s Golden Mile…(See More in Auction Reports)

39-41 Mayfield Avenue Malvern over $7million

Saturday 5th May: Today there were two strong results today in the $3m+ segment – but if you dig a little deeper there was a decided lack of interest in a number of homes that passed-in aiming towards $3m.

Malvern, 39-43 Mayfield Ave, Gerald Delaney (Kay & Burton), under the hammer, $7,131,510, 3 bidders
It felt like an entourage of Kay & Burton agents in attendance here and it did take a bit to get going due to the wet weather…(See More in Auction Reports)

Camberwell, 35 Broadway, Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig), under the hammer, $3,425,000, 6 bidders
A much anticipated auction this one as the property was a rare offering – an original home with fantastic bones on excellent land size and prized north facing rear…(See More in Auction Reports)

Pass-Ins

Brighton, 10 Kent Ave, passed in, $3,300,000, 2 bidders
Nick Johnstone is re-auctioning this Golden Mile new build after an unsuccessful effort last year in front of a crowd of around 60…(See More in Auction Reports)

Armadale, 20 Royal Crescent, passed in, $2,500,000, no bidders
There is something about Wayne Gillespie designed spaces – they just work well in terms of proportion and functionality, and the extension at 20 Royal Crescent is no different…(See More in Auction Reports)

St Cloud - 61 Kensington South Yarra - the 5th sale at circa $10m in a month

Early May:Five sales around $10 million mark in recent weeks – but the momentum may be easing.
Before we cover the marginal negative change in market sentiment over the past couple of weeks at the Ultra Top End, we feel it’s important to highlight the 5th sale at around $10 million that took place recently and that confirmed both the Pre Easter market spike and the power of the Kay and Burton Mexican Wave. The latest, a property at 61 Kensington South Yarra, was sold by Andrew Baines (he will need a tax advisor this month!) for more than $13,000,000. The property had something of a chequered past in terms of being on again, off again, sold, then sort of sold, then not sold. As a large landholding so close to the CBD it had positives. But it also had negatives: being near the freeway (noise) and overlooking power lines (visuals). That is what made for an interesting deal – it was a battle of wide opinions. Nonetheless it sold.

That makes a total of five sales in recent weeks at around the $10 million mark. Four were from Kay and Burton and one was from Marshall White.

So, after almost nothing for six months (a Kenley and maybe a Linlithgow excepted), bang – five were gone in a fortnight or so. Obviously buyers and sellers felt better and the K&B agents clearly smelled that. They did their Mexican Wave job well and pre-warned a number of buyers through a whisper campaign of what may happen. And see what happened! As soon as the first domino fell, the agents shouted (quietly) from the roof tops “Told you so” – and that lit the fuse on four more circa $10 million sales.

At times like this, when skilled agents are involved, certain homes appear to be under an irresistible force and deals get done. There is nothing wrong with this. It’s brilliant marketing and it’s what needs to happen to get a number of deals over the line. It’s not all buyers either – sellers are in on the Mexican Wave as well. They hear the whispers, see the results, get told “I told you so” too, and their price dexterity improves as they see real, concrete opportunity floating by.

However now that the early pre-Easter selling season is over, it seems that momentum has been lost again and the buying crowd are refocused on another game.

In the last few weeks the gloss at the Top End has faded a bit. Buyers are not quite as excited about what’s on offer – understandably given there are not a lot of publicly listed new hotties out there. As well some sellers have unwisely misread the recent activity as a market price increase and as such, without thinking, have in many cases put their homes back into the too hard basket.

What do the agents think?

We asked them: ‘Has the market changed a bit in the last week or two?’

Marcus Chiminello, of Marshall White, says that the market has definitely lost some of its ‘ooommpph’ in the last fortnight. ‘But this in my opinion is due to the almost complete lack of new and exciting stock.’

Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton says that while the market is very healthy – his company made four sales totalling around $50m around Easter – he does acknowledge that in the last fortnight ‘we have seen a loss of the momentum and this in my opinion is due almost entirely to the lack of new good quality stock at market prices.’

The Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts can have  mixed results at the Top End.

The Reserve Bank gave us all a bit of a surprise with its recent rate cut of 50 basis points. But the impact of the rate cuts at the Top End will be mixed.

The diagram below shows the progress of two identical hypothetical negotiations that started before Easter. Back then the difference between what the sellers wanted and what buyers were prepared to offer was $600,000.

With the interest rate cuts, a couple of results could eventuate – especially at the Top End where often there is only one buyer.

On the one hand, a lower interest rate may give the buyer confidence to offer a higher price, as long as they are feeling secure in their job. At the same time, if the seller was say overseas and had an exposure to currency movements, the interest rate change may make the seller nervous. A large exchange fluctuation can alter the value of an offer more radically than any agent argy-bargy. So a seller at exchange risk may alter their price and help the deal and a buyer who is secure in their job may also help the deal in going a little stronger as he finds borrowing to be marginally cheaper. With just a $100,000 difference between offer and expectation there may well be a deal done.

Alternatively, the events of the last few weeks may have the opposite effect. The seller may have looked at some of the recent strong sales on the Top End market and have lifted their expectations even higher thus widening the gap. The buyer on the other hand may look at the interest rate cuts as an indicator of a struggling economy, and become more concerned about their future employment prospects, prompting him or her to reduce his original offer. Now the deal is even further apart, with a difference of $900,000 between offer and expectation.

The point of this hypothetical is to show how complex negotiations can be at this level, and how as a buyer you’ve got to navigate through a number of possible scenarios.

How do you get validation if you want to do more in the way of due diligence than take the selling agent’s word as gospel?

Personal Research – At the moment researching the high end without being in the know has a higher degree of difficulty than an Olympic half pike from the high tower – there seems tremendous secrecy surrounding every sale. With secrecy comes its close friend “uninformed speculation“. And when you throw into the mix limited numbers of sales, inexperienced buyers can bake a very different cake when it comes to value.

Valuers – This is fast becoming a profession under siege as margins are cut dramatically by banks. This means cost-cutting internally, which can lead to a lowering of standards. And once habits of careful fact checking are replaced by wham-bam phone calls to those who have vested interests in rubbery figures, all of a sudden we no longer have credible valuations. Which is not to say that there are not some excellent valuers out there for the Top End. But you need to question whether you should rely on those who have massive contracts with large developers, or who approach their valuations at 60 kilometres per hour with a Google maps mentality. Sure, they’ll fit in with what the selling agents tell you. And there won’t be any problems with the bank lending you the money. But if the figures you’re given are unreliable, you may have a big problem on your hands when it comes to resale.

Solution: Deal with the people who do the deals. Engage them to act on your behalf and ask them to justify and prove their selling or buying price thoughts. If the deal is big enough get verification though a reputable valuer – not one recommended by a selling agent, and not one who specialises in $400,000 Werribee homes – but a real one. Their fee is between $3,000 and $4,000. In this low transaction and therefore weak information market they can be more valuable than a building inspector.

So how do you negotiate in this market?

When validation is not possible and the market is unclear going forward, you really need to be on your game when making decisions – presuming that good decisions are your aim.

So as boring as it sounds, be clear on your goals and whether they fit this market. For instance, buying a home with a short term time horizon and wanting low risk are almost mutually exclusive concepts right now.

Longer term buying may well meet your emotional and financial goals.

Let’s skip the search strategies and some due diligence and get to pricing.

In this market its about price framing rather than price negotiation – by which I mean that haggling over $100,000 is really not the main game, it’s getting into the correct $1,000,000 segment in the first place that’s the most important.

A smidge of what we’ve looked at recently

61 Clendon Road, Toorak with Michael Gibson and Matt Davis. The quote price is $16m to $18m and it’s big land – around an acre  in the old language. The home is a beautiful one and for me the highlight is the library. It perhaps lacks a grand room, but that won’t  be an issue for the purchaser who will have plenty of scope to do what they want. The gardens are expansive and if you have the botanical  passion you will have the room to do something special. Full rating possible.

Off Market in Hawthorn with Jock Langley. The quote is $6m plus and it is a north facing rear, larger period home with tennis court.  The home itself needs a reconfiguration to bring its floor plan into the 21st Century and the garage placement needs some thought to take  full advantage of what’s on offer. Full rating for clients only.

61-63 Alfred St, Kew with Jin Shang from Jellis Craig. This 2300 sqm block with a large period home was sold at public auction in  May 2009 with strong bidding. I remember it well: half a dozen bidders got it to just under $5m. The overseas surge was just starting after the FIRB changes. Two years on and with no major changes to this “back to front” floor plan it will be interesting to see how the market now views this home. A big auction on May 19th. Full rating available.

And one by the beach – 43 Seacombe Grove Brighton with Barb Gregory of Marshall White. No quote is allowed under Executor’s  instructions, but circa $8m is what they may say if they were giving a quote. Interesting variables in this one are the quality of the view – it is strong - and how much extra this is worth. The ability to rebuild close to the front (STCA) and therefore take advantage of this incredible view is another plus. And finally there is a question as to what is the actual land size that prospective buyers will use in their calculations. This is far from a “normal” block. Brighton waterfront has been going at around $10,000 per sq metre for a few sales now, but $12 million wouldn’t seem right for this home given a lot of the block would be classified as driveway access. So is it in fact a 600 sqm  or 800 sqm or 1000 sqm block plus driveway? And is the market still at $10,000 per sqm for land as it was in recent sales at Mytton  and Shandford?

She was just passing through. BRIGHTON, 42 Bay St, Jonathan Dixon (JP Dixon), bought after auction for an undisclosed amount above $2,635,000, 2 bidders

The Reserve Bank‘s interest rate cuts can have mixed results at the Top End.

The Reserve Bank gave us all a bit of a surprise with its recent rate cut of 50 basis points. But the impact of the rate cuts at the Top End could be mixed.

The diagram below shows the progress of two identical hypothetical negotiations that started before Easter. Back then the difference between what the sellers wanted and what buyers were prepared to offer was $600,000.

With the interest rate cuts, a couple of results could eventuate – especially at the Top End where often there is only one buyer.

On the one hand, a lower interest rate may give the buyer confidence to offer a higher price, as long as they are feeling secure in their job. At the same time, if the seller was say overseas and had an exposure to currency movements, the interest rate change may make the seller nervous. A large exchange fluctuation can alter the value of an offer more radically than any agent argy-bargy. So a seller at exchange risk may alter their price and help the deal and a buyer who is secure in their job may also help the deal in going a little stronger as he finds borrowing to be marginally cheaper. With just a $100,000 difference between offer and expectation there may well be a deal done.

Alternatively, the events of the last few weeks may have the opposite effect. The seller may have looked at some of the recent strong sales on the Top End market and have lifted their expectations even higher thus widening the gap. The buyer on the other hand may look at the interest rate cuts as an indicator of a struggling economy, and become more concerned about their future employment prospects, prompting him or her to reduce his original offer. Now the deal is even further apart, with a difference of $900,000 between offer and expectation.

The point of this hypothetical is to show how complex negotiations can be at this level, and how as a buyer you’ve got to navigate through a number of possible scenarios.

How do you get validation if you want to do more in the way of due diligence than take the selling agent’s word as gospel?

Personal Research – At the moment researching the high end without being in the know has a higher degree of difficulty than an Olympic half pike from the high tower – there seems tremendous secrecy surrounding every sale. With secrecy comes its close friend “uninformed speculation“. And when you throw into the mix limited numbers of sales, inexperienced buyers can bake a very different cake when it comes to value.

Valuers – This is fast becoming a profession under siege as margins are cut dramatically by banks. This means cost-cutting internally, which can lead to a lowering of standards. And once habits of careful fact checking are replaced by wham-bam phone calls to those who have vested interests in rubbery figures, all of a sudden we no longer have credible valuations. Which is not to say that there are not some excellent valuers out there for the Top End. But you need to question whether you should rely on those who have massive contracts with large developers, or who approach their valuations at 60 kilometres per hour with a Google maps mentality. Sure, they’ll fit in with what the selling agents tell you. And there won’t be any problems with the bank lending you the money. But if the figures you’re given are unreliable, you may have a big problem on your hands when it comes to resale.

Solution: Deal with the people who do the deals. Engage them to act on your behalf and ask them to justify and prove their selling or buying price thoughts. If the deal is big enough get verification though a reputable valuer – not one recommended by a selling agent, and not one who specialises in $400,000 Werribee homes – but a real one. Their fee is between $3,000 and $4,000. In this low transaction and therefore weak information market they can be more valuable than a building inspector.

So how do you negotiate in this market?

When validation is not possible and the market is unclear going forward, you really need to be on your game when making decisions – presuming that good decisions are your aim.

So as boring as it sounds, be clear on your goals and whether they fit this market. For instance, buying a home with a short term time horizon and wanting low risk are almost mutually exclusive concepts right now.

Longer term buying may well meet your emotional and financial goals.

Let’s skip the search strategies and some due diligence and get to pricing.

In this market its about price framing rather than price negotiation – by which I mean that haggling over $100,000 is really not the main game, it’s getting into the correct $1,000,000 segment in the first place that’s the most important.

22 South Road Brighton - Mark Earle - Bought After - $3,255,000 - 3 bidders

Saturday April 21st: 22 South Road Brighton (Peter Hickey) Bought After $3,255,000
James Auction Report: Thought I would come to see the only $3m auction on offer today – that is if it is actually gets $3m+.  Auctioneer Mark Earle strides out in front of a crowd of around 60 and launches into a synopsis of the rules, some pearls on the market and his thoughts about how good this home is. Well down to business, let’s see if any bidders share his views on this 1700sqm rambling home with tennis court on South Road. A fair and reasonable start is called for, but none is forthcoming and so a vendor bid is made at $3,000,000. To be honest the crowd doesn’t seem to be excited about things – but in balance it’s unlikely to have anymore than one or two bidders – but it will sell eventually as tennis courts always do. After some patter and some fill a grumpy $3,000,000 is called out and is excepted and replaces the vendor bid. A second bidder tries to get out $3,020,000 but is beaten by a third bidder to $3,050,000 and two bids later we are at $3,100,000. A hesitation and another $25,000 comes from Bidder one to $3,125,000. Bidder Three is looking at Bidder Two who goes to $3,150,000 and after Bidder One says he is out Bidder Three comes in at $3,175,000. Strangely the on the market question is not asked. Mark is working the bidders well and extracts a smaller bid after his suggestion of $10,000 and then a $5,000 and it’s passed in at $3,190,000. Good auctioneering and it’s passed in – it will sell. It did.

35 Sussex St Brighton (Jason Gill) – a home in need of some serious work on good land (880 sqm) has been sold – short or initial expectations but nonetheless a solid number below $2,800,000.

13 Washington Toorak (Hugh Hardy) – a quiet off market of land only – 700 sqm selling for above $5,500 per sq metre.

March finished pretty strongly and, despite a big slowdown in terms of April auctions and new stock, the deals have kept coming. The mainstream media have been claiming a slowdown based on a few paltry sales last weekend, but they’ve been eating a bit too much chocky if they think that represents a true sample of what is happening out there right now at the Top End.  While price is still very iffy, interest isn’t.

May is the pointer for 2012 and we are looking at a number of off market homes and pre-market homes (for listing in May). Which means there will be enough on offer to see where that 2012 pointer goes. Our feelings are that prices are still stabilising and that activity is OK.

Last year we had three activity spikes – one around Easter, one in September and a small one for two weeks in December. Those spikes featured homes in and around $3m to $7m.

March 2012 was definitely a spike in terms of activity and April has continued in that vein; not so much in terms of numbers (due to the holidays) but in terms of substantial deals.

Worth noting are four recent sales at around the $10 million mark (3 over and 1 just under). What that says is that people are acting. We last saw this level of activity in August last year where $55 million worth of property sold across 11 sales. In some ways the 2012 Easter weekend was just as impressive with 3 and possibly a 4th ultra-quiet sale in South Yarra transacting for over $10 million and another one very close to it.

A quick rundown on some of the biggies:

• Level 39, Royal Domain Tower, 368 St Kilda Road, Melbourne
  Whole floor in excess of 50 squares. Sold by Andrew Baines of Kay and Burton – Over $8,000,000.
• 26 Albany Road Toorak
  Set on grounds totaling approximately 2,476sqm, a championship-size tennis court and indoor/outdoor pool. Sold by Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton. Over $10,000,000. On the market for over a year and offers back and forth saw this home sell in excess for we believe $11,000,000.
• 1 Millswyn St South Yarra
  On 2,152sqm approx in South Yarra – yes it’s part commercial but it’s a big piece of residential dirt. Sold by Michael Gibson and Matt Davis of Kay and Burton for over $10,000,000 we believe.
• 21- 23 Kooyoongkoot Road Hawthorn – Sold by Marcus Chiminello of Marshall White. Over $12,000,000
  Tennis court court and pool on 2,788 sqm – just down from another big parcel of land at 33 which sold for around $8,000,000 last month.
• 49 Irving Road Toorak – it’s been on the market longer than Richmond has been trying to win their latest premiership but it has finally been put away by Jeremy Fox for $5,000,000 on the knocker.
• 7 Maple Grove Toorak - slightly dated home with a tricky floor plan. Sold by Michael Armstrong for over $4,500,000
• 38 Havelock Road Hawthorn East – 1300+ sqm in size, had been on the market for some time with initial quotes in excess of $4 million. Sold by Glen Coutinho of Hocking Stuart for just above the mid $3 millions.
• And the Balwyn Formula is back in vogue (sort of), that is, small land, big new home and big price – with 3 such homes recently sold in the suburb: 57 Citview (Brett Philipp);  31 Elliott (John Bradbury) and 111 Winmalee (Jin Shang). All sold for between $2,800,000 and $3,200,000 with land sizes between 650 and 750 sq metres. Prices are down but activity is improving.
• 79 Beaconsfield Parade Albert Park – the sale was managed by Paul Western of Cayzer Real Estate.   On land of 409m2. Passed in at auction on the 3/03/12 and sold on 4/04/12 in the range of $3.2m to $3.5m

Down Bayside way things have been a bit quieter, but that is after a dozen or so $3m+ sales last month. One recent sale was 32 Dawson Avenue (newish home in the Golden Mile), sold by Chris Bevan for an undisclosed amount.

This month, like last month and next month, is shaping up as good solid activity months for buyers and sellers, a number of high end quality agents and the $3m+ market overall.

So if you want to buy there seems little reason to be totally negative, sensible on price and quality yes, but not totally negative. While the market may be down in terms of price from last year and activity is still nowhere near the stellar heights of 2010, there is definitely a heartbeat at this Top End level right now, and that is good news for sellers and buyers alike.

As a company we have been involved in seven deals over a million in April – with three purchased to date and four still pending. The three we purchased were: an Off Market around Gasworks Park in Albert Park (Kaine Lanyon); a pre auction sale in Richmond (Luke Schickerling) and a holiday home (private auction) at Fairhaven with Marty Maher from Great Ocean Properties. We should add that the three agents in these cases were professional to deal with and got solid prices for their vendors – two of the three had multiple bidding.

Finally it does look like the Kay and Burton Mexican Wave is back – although we are not sure that is good news for us buyers and hopefully it won’t last too long.

And to finish with some balance – there are still a number of homes out there that haven’t sold: Kooyongkoot Road, Central Park Road, Kooyong Road to name a few – they are really good homes but ……..

May is looking reasonable for new stock.

Life’s OK.

Melbourne's Million Dollar Plus Property Magazine

Winter 2012 seems to have come early in terms of lack of properties listed for auction. Even with  the holidays now over, there are still only a handful of auctions listed for the weekends left in April. In fact this is shaping up as one of the lowest mid year Auction months that I can remember for some time.

That doesn’t mean that there are no properties on the market at all. There are still plenty of off markets (unadvertised homes), pre markets (before they get to market); private sales with no advertising and stales (homes that were advertised a year ago and are now either off the net or on the very last page of the listings).

However, what this does mean is that if you are a buyer looking for an A-grade result in April 2012 you aren’t going to get the best deals by sitting back, thumbing through the glossies and turning up on a Saturday.

As a buyer it is important you understand what is going on, and you are not necessarily going to get that from the Sunday papers. With no public pointers such as meaningful $M+ clearance rates you are going to have to look deeper than the dailies for your market indicators.

For instance, I am still surprised at the number of market watchers who talk to me mid week in coffee shops or at Sunday sport who think that because they’ve heard the market is OK that prices must have been going up. In 90% of the 400 or so transactions we’ve looked at this year, the sale price has in fact been at or below vendor expectations of last year, not above. And while there has been a good spread of solid auctions they have rarely exceeded “trade” price expectations. The main reason the market was healthy pre-Easter was because vendors were meeting the market not because buyers were leaping to ridiculous heights to grab the gold.

On the other hand, when demand is still strong and stock is down as it is right now, prices tend to stay firm. Before Easter our demand indicator Bidderman, which shows an average number of bidders per auction, showed us that there is a healthy level of demand out there when the 3Ps are right – price, property and position. So there is still plenty of competition out there when the property comes up at the right price.

Hence, to use a sailing analogy, your search for a $M+ home in Bayside and the Inner East in the next few weeks may require you to change tack. As with sailing, you will need to look for the winds in different spots and possibly away from the crowds.

So, what can you do to maximize your chance of finding your dream home at a good price this month?

1)      Do your own research. You need to look past the highlighted sales results that skilled agents will present you. These may not be giving you the full picture. As an informed buyer you need to balance out this information with that from results not highlighted by the selling agent. As a buyer it is incumbent on you to do your own independent homework if  a good decision making process one of your home-buying goals.

2)      The Early bird who has clear and relevant goals catches the worm – it might seem a worn out saying, but it’s super relevant in this market. Yes, turning up is three quarters of life but you still need to perform. Your Winter home searching effort needs to include weekly Phone calls to agents, short sharp emails, letterboxing, excel spreadsheets. The good homes are not just going to fall into your lap as they did before Easter or in previous years. If you do, you may get some chances other don’t.

Get a rental. With very limited stock on offer, you’ll need an extra level of patience to avoid making a mistake. If your dream home is not there, it’s not there. In which case a six month rental strategy may be far better in the long term than a ‘quick draw McGraw’ 10 year buying strategy.

Prahran, 4 Grandview, Jeremy Fox, Under the hammer, $4,570,000. 3 bidders

Saturday March 31st: Solid finish to the month – partly as a result of vendors lowering their expectations as they feel the market may get worse before it gets better, partly due to some good stock and partly because buyers can’t really see anything of note on the market after Easter.

But to keep some perspective if you read our archived $3m+ reports of previous years you will see the same buoyant activity leading into Easter -  its after Easter that gets interesting.

Big Day at Auctions for the Top End

• Prahran, 4 Grandview, Jeremy Fox,  under the hammer $4,570,000, 3 bidders. This was a Super Saturday sizzler! Three determined bidders contested for this breathtaking property after auctioneer Jeremy Fox kicked things off with an opening vendor bid of $4,000,000. It was a little slow at first but the action heated up as the third bidder chimed in. He eventually secured the property for $4,570,000 and that sparked applause from the 130 onlookers.
  James Home Rating 865/1000 “I found it hard to find fault with this home – its WOW all over – the flow works brilliantly, locale for Prahran is in THE street and garaging, kitchen, laundry set up is efficient and classy – the north light is brought in nicely into living areas. The bedroom set up works and the reflection pools aren’t twee they are classy. Do I sound over the top on this? This home will fly and I mean fly unless the RT boys cook the quote or the vendor is dreaming. Best guide is 51 Murray St Prahran in May 2010 (See our rating and auction report, over $3,700,000) and the recent sale of similar land size without the same WOW by same company a couple of weeks ago at 22 Murray St (north of $3,400,000). Our suggested strategy to buy – dig deep on the day or go hard and early now!  ” Mal James

• Armadale, 3/50 Hampden, John Bongiorno, under the hammer, $3,360,000. 2 bidders.  Last sold for just over $2,500,000 in 2005.
• Toorak, 27 Selborne, Jeremy Fox, after auction,  $3,300,000, 1 bidder

Pass-Ins

• Toorak 49 Irving, Passed In on a vendor bid at $4,500,000
• Camberwell, 12a Royal, Passed In on a vendor bid at $4,100,000

February Top End Pass-Ins still really struggling a month later!

But it’s not all good news at this level if you don’t get the price right. A month ago we reported on ten auctions over $2.5 million. Two sold on the day and eight passed in. Since then only a further two have sold and both were below the pass-in price. Although the stat is on a small sample it says at this level 40% clearance rate after a month.

Friday March 30th: 2a Chelsea St Brighton with Sturt Hinton of Kay and Burton got away after an eternity on the market for an extremely healthy result of $3,600,000 (according to another agent).

Thursday March 29th: Expressions of Interest still working with Michael Armstrong moving 11 Moralla Road Kooyong – over $5million.

There has definitely been a resurgence in Bayside in the last few weeks at the top level and one new company that is giving the big boys a run for their money is Nick Johnstone of Nick Johnstone real estate – as you know we have a fair bit of time for him, as he actually gets off his back side and shows you homes, suggest alternatives, tells you asking prices (which a number of others for some stupid reason think should be a complete mystery) and follows you up. Good real estate at the Top End is not for rocket scientists – we know because we aren’t. Turning up with a sprinkling of facts and treating people with a certain level of decency is ¾ of the job. Anyway let’s look at Nic’s circa $3m sales this month alone in Brighton

• 1 Norwood – North facing land one back from the beach
• 20 Birdwood – James Home Rating of 714/1000
• 13 Halifax – ripper property see our James Home Rating 661/1000
• 19 St Ninians – heart of the Golden Mile see our James Home Rating 588/1000

And while on the subject of smaller boutique companies we have always liked the work of Paul Richards who sold 53 Barnard Kew for we believe over $6,000,000 earlier this month and we were amazed to see another company claiming the deal – anyway Bekdon Richards with Evan Lykourinos is a young company who also speaks reasonably accurately, gets out of bed early and pushes through some big deals quietly over the line.

And one for the big boys – Justin Long of Marshall White moved 8 Harvey St Malvern on Monday for we think over $4million – went through it late last year and thought it may take some time to shift – a credit to his persistence and if achieved anything over $4m in this market it would have been a good result for both parties.

Another one quietly gone in the Gascoigne (Kay and Burton) at circa $3m price level and the big one in Boroondara should emerge soon to give some small confidence at the Top of the Top End. Not trying to be tricky but we do respect privacy when asked.

Mortgagee Auction: 8 St Ninians Brighton, David Hart, Under the Hammer, $4,900,000, 3 bidders

Saturday 24th March: It is neck and neck for the strongest areas in the $3 million segment for March: so far Brighton has sold 7, Hawthorn, Kew and Canterbury also 7 and Toorak 6 for the month so far – daylight the rest.

• Brighton, 8 St Ninians, David Hart, $4,900,000, 3 bidders.
• East Melbourne, 125 Gipps St, the newly married Nathan Waterson should pay for the wedding with a private sale at slightly below $4,000,000. A great terrace home and a good result, but below initial ask and took a fair while for the vendors to come into line. Next door’s ask now seems even more courageous than when I first heard it. But I have had the taste of humble pie once or twice this month so will wait and see.
• Kew, 5 Tregarron Avenue, Sam Wilkinson – Expressions of Interest in the mid $3 millions. Now with Sam who has deservedly a good reputation at this level on these homes. Is he not the spitting image of young Brains on Thunderbirds!
• Hawthorn East a quiet one away for Nicholas Franzmann and hopalong Walter Dodich in the over $3m category. New home build – good result in the end.
• McKinnon, 41 Rose St – yep its not a misprint – McKinnon – Adam Joske and Phillip Kingston under the hammer at $70,000 short of $3,000,000. 3 bidders and a crowd of over 200.

Top  Pass Ins

• Brighton, 11 Alverna Grove,  passed in, $3,000,000, no bidders
  A big crowd turned out to have a look at this impressive 7 year old home overlooking parkland at the end of a dead end street….(See more in Auction Reports)
• Balwyn, 26 Metung, passed in, $3,000,000

The New Way to do Business at the Top End - An Abercrombys Private Auction - 11 Bates St Malvern East selling over $6 million – Jeff Gole and Tim Derham

Thursday 22nd March: The Abercromby Private Auction – possibly the new Expressions of Interest. Private Auctions are where a home is advertised usually for a mid week auction and only those who register interest are allowed to attend.

11 Bates St Malvern East was a great example of how it works. A number of pre arranged private inspections are organised during the course of an advertised auction campaign. A few days before the Private Auction (Thursday), all potential buyers register interest and are required to indicate a starting bid. In this case the written starting bid was $5.9 million (I’m not sure what that proves, but anyway).

They are by invitation only (and I saw some people being  turned away at the door). At 11 Bates three parties turned up. Two bid – well I think it was two – the spiel was given by Tim Derham and he declared that there were two pre recorded bids. One bidder asked to see them and she was duly shown the written bids. What surprised me was that she accepted them without asking Tim to point out who the actual written bid was from. But we move on. Anyway this feisty lady tried in all manner of ways to lower the bids (and good on her) until a $50,000 bid was accepted after Tim had cheekily asked for a $200,000 rise (well he tried hey!). The property was eventually passed in to the lady. A deal was done behind closed doors over the magic $6 million mark, post auction. Surprisingly despite the written bid, no-one else bid, including the writer of the bid. Mmmm!

Digressing slightly, this was in our opinion about the right money for this very rare and truly great home, given we figured it was worth $3m for the land and $3m for the home and the rest was going to be emotion. Read our James Home Rating if you wish.

But back to the Private Auction. Not only is it a civil way to conduct proceedings at the Top End but it also probably circumvents the new cooling off period laws – if an auction by invitation only still constitutes a public auction. That’s one for the legal boys.

This is the third of its type we’ve been to over $3m in recent times and all have worked (for the seller). As a buyer the normal rules apply as at a public auction – do your homework on value, have representation to protect your privacy and manage the bidding; and of course have a suitable post auction strategy to prevent the irresistible force of “Slapper” in full voice running you up the flag pole above fair and reasonable.

The more we see the Abercromby guys in action, the more impressed we are with how they do business at the Top End. Yes Tim Derham can hit you between the eyes when you least expect it and Jock can chew your ear off on why a home is worth such and such without necessarily dropping a fact into the conversation (he gets some very big deals over the line); but when you look at their line-up, which includes Rob Vickers Willis and Andrew Harlock, this Top End boutique agency is truly the hired gunslingers (with some morality) who are knocking the Top End around a bit right now. No we don’t get anything from them, but we at James like the way they are doing business right now with the Private Auctions (it’s innovative and its working) – has a relative degree of transparency about it (although you do need pre auction preparation and post auction pass-in skills if you are to give as good as you get – they are working for the vendor not you the buyer) and they are actually pleasant guys (not working for you but pleasant). Jeff Gole is a solid, ethical and experienced addition to the Abercromby family. Liking your work right now boys.

35 Stonnington Off Market - Over $6m

Off Market: 35 Stonnington Place Toorak also Jeff Gole and Tim Derham (they’ve had a good week these old blokes). Went through this off market home about a month ago. Pretty well the Toorak new build formula – big, thoughts of pretension, all the features but lacked a little soul when you lined it up against the calibre of 11 Bates St above. Was around the $6m mark the right money? I feel so and that represents a 25% rise on its last buy price during the GFC. Yes we may be in a market that may fall some more but we also may be in a market that has corrected and will begin to rise again. If you know for sure where we are in the cycle can you let us know please – we agents out here are waiting for that sign from God!

Tuesday 20th March: Another half dozen buys at the $3m+ level this week, with Bayside showing the most consistent activity

• 55 Sussex St Brighton (Jonathan Dixon) finally gets way after beginning its sale campaign with another agent in the stratosphere and selling at what now deemed to be market value.
• 27 Chelsea St (Danielle Martin of Barleys) organises the ink after a long but ultimately successful campaign on a solid block with a home that needed some work.
• 29 Seymour Avenue (Ian Jackson) forever the consummate professional brings two parties together, no not at the initial courageous $5m+ ask; but at the still pretty impressive mid $4 million mark. With land being bought in the early $2m’s a few years ago; holding costs and a pretty solid build ( lift, basement and other features) the buy, build and sell quick is not proving to be the absolute goldmine it once was – but nobody’s saying this was not an acceptable result – just tight.

Monday 19th March: Reprinted from The Weekly Review – “The market can be so fickle at the top end”

So you’ve heard there’s a bit of life at the Top of the Top End – that is the $3 million price bracket. Is it true? Well, yes and no.

After taking forever to get out of the blocks in 2012, the starting gun finally seems to have fired for the $3 million plus market. But the big question in this Olympic year is whether this is a false start or the beginning of some sustained running.

The thing is, that at this price level markets are very fickle and rise and fall quite dramatically within short periods of time. Its sub markets, such as land only or trophy homes or new builds, go up and down with even more elasticity, as demand for these is far more variable than for say a median priced inner suburban home.

Even so, the Top End can have some oomph even while operating a lower price level. It’s a bit like a footy team that is outside the top eight and then gets it act together to make a run at the eight, even if it may not be operating at the levels of the top four.

So where are we now in Mid March 2012 in the Bayside and Inner East Market above $3million?

The current market does have some oomph but it is nothing like the halcyon high turnover days of 2007 and 2010. While there is some good stock on offer, there is also plenty of rubbish. Also worth remembering is that we saw signs of life like this at around the same time in 2011, only to then see momentum die away after Easter. The market did come up for some air in September but then it sank again for the rest of 2011 (except for one or two notable exceptions).

Last year was a classic stalemate market – with many vendors barking orders down to their agents and many buyers looking up at the prize, offering a limp handshake and then walking away unsatisfied when it wasn’t taken up.

So far this year things seem a bit more lively. When pushed some buyers are putting in a second effort, helping to push some prices up. Sellers seem more prepared to meet the market rather than sticking stubbornly to their asking prices as they did last year. However, this does not add up to uniformly increasing prices. In fact a number of homes have transacted at lower prices than the previous peaks or when they last sold.

Let’s get specific

What has been selling?

• Hawthorn East, 2 Buley St, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), Sold after auction above $3,700,000, 2 bidders:
• Sandringham, 47-49 Victoria St (Julian Augustini) – Big parcel of land, on the market since late last year and sold in the mid $3 millions – a solid result.
• Camberwell, 19 Waterloo, (Rob Vickers-Willis, Greg Toogood) Bought under the hammer in front of a crowd of 80 people. Bidding opened at $2,700,000. On market at $3 million. 4 Bidders

What has been selling, but at lower than previous levels?

• Hawthorn, 33 Kooyongkoot Road (Tim Picken and Scott Patterson) – A huge block (2800sqm) in THE street on the crest of Scotch Hill. Sold for around the quote price of $8 million, lower than it sold for in the 2007 peak. This was a good sale just at lower levels.
• Malvern, 9 Woodmason St, (Jeremy Fox), Sold after auction, above $3,530,000, with 3 bidders. This was only bought a few years ago and we believe at a higher price. This was a good sale just at lower levels.
• Brighton, 47 Champion St (Ian Jackson) – Had been on the market (with another agent) for an eternity, considering its quality, with an asking price initially over $3.5m – Bought mid week for we believe just under $3m. This was a good sale just at lower levels.

What has not sold at auction?

• East Melbourne, 125 Gipps St – passed-in $3,850,000
• Williamstown, 27 The Strand – passed-in $3,000,000
• Toorak, 24 Heyington – passed-in $2,900,000

And there are plenty more of these out there, as you’ll notice if you do a search on homes over $2.5 million on any real estate portal. Last time we did that, up came 250 homes, which should tell you that despite a dozen or so buys/sells in the last week there are still many “wannabe” sellers out there who may not have got their pricing correct.

19 Waterloo Camberwell hits $3,045,000 in a Rob Vickers-Willis mid week auction

Thursday March 8th – Camberwell, 19 Waterloo, (Rob Vickers-Willis, Greg Toogood) Bought under the hammer in front of a crowd of 80 people. Bidding opened at $2,700,000. On market at $3,000,000. 4 Bidders (Architect Adam Auction Report)

James Home Rating 810/1000: 19 Waterloo is a very good property, and one that which should defy any  negative market conditions  as  it is a unique offering . We see this type of property only about six times a year and,  if vendor expectations are reasonable and the agent manages the campaign well, then a strong result generally comes about….. (see James Home Rating for full details)

Wednesday March 7th – Hawthorn, 33 Kooyongkoot Road (Tim Picken and Scott Patterson) – the big one on Scotch Hill – 2800sqm in THE street on the crest of the hill was bought today for we believe around the quote price of $8,000,000. This shows their is a market for sensibly priced Top End homes – meaning it had a lower quote than what it was last bought for in the 2007 peak. James Home Rating 752/1000 – see rating for full details.

64 Sutherland Road Armadale – (Jock Langley) – Inner city larger terrace home was bought in a private negotiation and 16 Monomeath Avenue Canterbury (Doug McLauchlan) which passed in on Saturday for $4,700,000 was cleaned up in post auction negotiations for an undisclosed amount – the quote was $5,000,000 plus.

Biggest Sale of 2012 so far 33 Kooyongkoot

Tuesday March 6th – Kay and Burton Trifecta

• Toorak, 46 Canberra Road, Michael Armstrong and Ross Savas – bought before auction around $4 million.
• Camberwell, 69 Broadway, Michael Armstrong and Ross Savas – was quoted between $6,000,000 and $7,000,000 and had been on the market since last year with another agent and we believe was sold in the last day or two for an undisclosed amount.
• Portsea, 3831 Point Nepean Road – Liz Jensen, Kay and Burton, $3,200,000 – bought before auction.

Hawthorn East, 2 Buley, Jason Scillio, Bought After, Over $3,700,000. 2 bidders

March 3rd: We had the first signs of life in the Inner East this weekend and it now seems the Bayside Top End may be dragging itself out of its Summer slumber. After last week’s Sandringham Top End action, we saw sales this week at:

• Brighton, 192 Church St (Ian Jackson) – On market for some time at over $4m – Bought mid week just shy of that
• Brighton, 47 Champion St (Ian Jackson) – On market (with another agent) for an eternity, considering its quality, with an asking initially over $3.5m – Bought mid week for just under $3m.

Biggest Auctions:

• Hawthorn East, 2 Buley St, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), after auction above $3,700,000, 2 bidders: Jason Scillio was our master of ceremonies here and he led the way strongly and professionally, politely refusing low increment bids and keeping the auction moving along smoothly and quickly…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Malvern, 9 Woodmason St, Jeremy Fox (RT Edgar), after auction, above $3,530,000, 3 bidders: Interested to see how this recently on the market and sold quality home goes at this indoor auction in front of crowd of around 40…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Toorak, 33 Evans Court, Gowan Stubbings, After Auction, around $3,400,000, 1 bidder: This beautifully presented property attracted a sizeable crowd on a gloomy day. An opening bid from the crowd of $3,260,000 was trumped by auctioneer Gowan Stubbings ..(see more in Auction Reports)
• Brighton, 3 Tennyson St, Leigh Hallamore (Buxton), under the hammer, $3,270,000, 3 bidders: Indoor auctions aren’t always that exciting, but this bucked the trend and was fast paced, entertaining and high energy all rolled in to one…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Brighton, 19 St Ninians Rd, Nick Johnstone (Nick Johnstone), after auction, $3,150,000, 1 bidder: The loud chatter of the crowd, with umbrellas in hand, who stood in a series of small huddles, made the weather seem much less dreary….(see more in Auction Reports)
• Fitzroy, 112 McKean St with Shayne Mooney of Nelson Alexander – just over $3million

Biggest Pass-Ins:

• Canterbury, 16 Monomeath Ave, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White), $4,700,000, no bidders: Outside, and under a substantial porch, a crowd of 80 gathered. Doug McLauchlan opened with a vendor bid of $4,500,000, adding another at $4,600,000…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Albert Park, 79 Beaconsfield Parade, Geoff Cayzer, $3,300,000
• Elwood, 8 Dickens St, Marshall Rushford (Hocking Stuart), $2,950,000,  2 bidders: This great old dame attracted a lot of curious bystanders – even (I was told) a former owner of this amazing old mansion, who had come along to see just how much it was worth in today’s market…..(see more in Auction Reports

However, there is still a lot of property at this price level on the market in Bayside and the Inner East that is simply sitting there doing nothing.

Overall the $3M+ market is seen by optimists as treading water and by realists as still edging backwards.

First, let’s think about what buying well means. If you think it means a guaranteed market outcome, forget it. We are not in a market of certainty. (In fact there’s never any absolute certainty about the property market.)

A better way of thinking about buying well is in terms of good financial and emotional outcomes for you.

In terms of financial outcomes, the best you can aim to do is to buy a home that has a real chance of outperforming the market.  An outperforming home will not drop by as much as the average if prices go down and will go up more than the average on the next upswing.

A good example is the $2 million homes in Hawthorn that have really powered through the negativity of recent times and continue to hold and even increase in value.

Emotionally speaking, buying a home well is about meeting your family’s changing needs as you go through the cycles of life. There is no such thing as the perfect one-size-fits-all, long-term perfect home – (although in our opinion a well-positioned single-fronted, double-storey Edwardian or Victorian comes very close). But you should aim to buy a home that has five year flexibility to meet your changing foreseen and unforeseen needs.

The good news is that the same home can deliver both good emotional and financial outcomes.

A  good buy is a home that you personally like (emotion outcome),  as well as one that has strong long term demand with a limited supply (financial outcome).

What does a home that will have both long term demand and a restriction of supply look like?

We like to use the Three Ps Characteristics – Price, Property and Position to be describe what we think such a home is.

The most important P for financial outcomes is Position. Position is about a property’s location in relation to the CBD, shops, rail and good schools. If you can walk to these amenities the demand will be higher  than if you have to drive. By logic the supply of these kinds of properties is restricted (they are making very few train stations or commercial centres). But position is not only area “big picture” – the minutiae and subtleties of one precinct over another is also an important consideration in emotional and financial outcomes of each family.

You might think there is great demand for new homes in outer areas and for high end apartments in the inner city. But in both cases there is no restriction of supply. They can always build more outer suburbs or Dockland apartments. That is why these homes have underperformed the market in the medium term.

The second P, Property, is both about land content and the floor plan. When buying well most of your money should be going into the dirt the property is built on rather than the bricks and mortar. Dirt goes up in value over time whereas buildings tend to lose value. Building in a fringe suburb is hard to stack up financially. If you’re buying land in the mid $1 millions to build on in Beaumaris, for instance, and expecting to sell it for mid $2 million to $3 million you are going to do your dough 9 times out of ten. The same applies to North Balwyn or Bentleigh East. Building new or major renovating can be emotionally satisfying but it can also seriously affect you land content to market value ratio – which is one of the more important ratios in long term financial outcomes. We like to see a ratio of at least 70% meaning the land is worth 70% of the market price (when completed).

The third P, Price, is important, because even in a great location it is possible to pay too much and so reduce your financial outcome. Be careful of false market prices created by marketing, skilled agents or unusual circumstances. Eg new developments, even within established suburbs, can often be false markets especially if what is on offer is well above the price of surrounding precinct types – at the very least it represents an elevated risk financially.  A “real” market price has a historical basis and is currently determined by a number of other informed bidders.

So following these Three Ps of demand and supply characteristics, buying well is about buying into a good suburb with good land content and a good floorplan that does not require  major work at a good price.

Want to know  where you’ll find a property to this formula? Well, in Melbourne you can’t go past property near good schools in Bayside and the Inner East, which is why the long term trends for those suburbs consistently exceeds  the Melbourne average (even if they go up and down in the short term).

As close as there is to such a thing, a good property in these areas will be the magic bullet that will allow you to buy well in this or any market.

• Hawthorn – 29 Kooyongkoot Road – asking $6m plus with Michael Armstrong of Kay and Burton. James Home Rating 842/1000
• Malvern East – 11 Bates Street – asking $6m plus with Jeff Gole and Tim Derham of Abercromby’s. James Home Rating 838/1000

If you have any interest in these properties we have far more detailed notes and pricing which is not up on our public Ratings site.

Click on picture go to rating

Click on picture go to rating

February 25th the day everything big passed-in

2 bidders to $3,900,000 at 2 Laurel Court Hawthorn East - but that still wasn’t enough!

Despite the rest of the market having some bounce it was very flat at the Top End with the Top 8 Sales all passing-in

• Hawthorn East – 2 Laurel Court – passed-in $3,900,000
• East Melbourne – 125 Gipps St – passed-in $3,850,000
• Williamstown – 27 The Strand – passed-in $3,000,000
• Toorak – 24 Heyington – passed-in $2,900,000
• Hawthorn – 54 Glen – passed-in $2,800,000
• Canterbury – 29 Hopetoun – passed-in $2,650,000
• Camberwell – 123 Wattle Valley – passed-in $2,650,000
• Malvern – 119 Stanhope – passed-in $2,600,000

A few biggies that were cleaned up this week (but at lower prices than initially offered):

• 3 Park St Brighton (Jason Gill) – Wrapped up this week at just under $3m after being on the market for a fair while.
• 47-49 Victoria St Sandringham (Julian Augustini) – Big parcel of land, on the market since late last year and sold in the mid $3ms.
• 324 Beaconsfield Parade St Kilda West (Shane Siemers) – Went to auction last year at over $5m and sold, we believe, in the sub $4m range this week.
• 51 Isabella Grove Hawthorn (Jeremy Fox) – been on the market a long time and sold at a second campaign for over $5,500,000. Initial ask was over $6m.

All smiles are David Wood and Michael Coen who get 2012's first $3m+ under the hammer property away. Albert Park, 148 Beaconsfield Parade and a strong 4 bidders

2011 was a year of falling prices with the exceptions of the months of May, September and December. Yes, we finished the year off OK – but it was more a case or arresting the fall rather than any lighting of price rockets.

Last year we saw large drops in market values of homes that started too high on price, with owners who then had to sell. This was particularly the case with properties that were of inferior quality and also those in poor positions. In many cases these drops were 20% and more off the Anzac Day 2010 high. A lot of that fall in value happened in the last quarter of 2011.

Demand being OK can be further supported by our Stale and Stalemate results.

As we went into Christmas we had four key $2m to $3m negotiations in Stalemate in that the Vendor was fixed at X and our buyer was fixed at Y. It was a stalemate as opposed to a momentum negotiation because the vendor felt no compulsion to lower their price and our buyer had no proof as to why they had to increase their bid.

10 weeks later, the results on those negotiations are:

1. Burke Road Malvern – Marshall White’s Maddie Kennedy got a surprising near $3m from another buyer. This was a really good home but in a difficult location and the auction only produced a vendor bid of $2.4m
2. Victoria St Brighton – Barb Gregory of Marshall White Brighton. Another buyer met the reserve of $3.5m. Not surprising – this was a good home and a fair price.
3. Moffat Brighton – Bought after some argy-bargy with Chris Bevan of JP Dixon. This was a brilliant design and build and had been on the market for over a year.
4. Camberwell -still in a stalemate negotiation and with other blocks nearby also unsold. It’s hard to tell when or even if something may happen on this.

Early 2012 Private Sales

• Brighton East, 181 Were St – Kate Strickland – Over $3m – Cutting edge home – Big price for East Brighton
• Brighton, 10 Victoria – Barb Gregory – Over $3.5m – Modern 7 yo family home near the water
• Brighton, 17 Huntingfield – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin – Over $3.3m – Big family home
• Brighton 2 Collins Brighton– Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin – Over $3m – Townhouse, one of a pair
• Brighton 26 Moffat Brighton – Chris Bevan – Cutting edge family home
• Balwyn, 15 Boston – Mark Rathgeber – $3,300,000 – Big family home
• Hawthorn, 58 Kooyongkoot – Scott Patterson – Over $3m – Family home
• Prahran, 22 Murray – Tim Wilson – Over $3m – Big land
• Kew, 65 Stevenson – Paul Richards – Bekdon Richards – $3,000,000 – Big period home

The auctions are back on again and the chatter about what is happening on the 2012 property market has started. By Labour Day the trickle of opinion on the state of the market will turn into a flood.

The big question for many of you right now may well be: should we buy the family home in Brighton or Hawthorn now – or should we wait till later in the year? You may be worrying about what’s happening to the economy, and wondering how it’s going to affect the property market.

But the fact is it’s still impossible to say what’s happening on those two fronts. And whether or not you decide to buy now or later in the year, first you need to work through your home-buying plan for 2012. To some people this is an amazingly difficult ask. But I can assure you that if you make a sensible plan and follow it, it’s a Black Caviar certainty you’ll buy a house that suits your needs, makes your family happier,  and lets you retire earlier.

Your plan should include both financial and emotional outcomes. Financial outcomes include whether you aim to minimise debt as soon as possible, and whether you want your home to help you build wealth. Emotional outcomes are about what kind of property will maximise your family’s happiness and well-being.

Your plan will of course be very different depending on what stage of life you are at, whether you’re a Single, Couple, have Young Children, or Older Children, are in Mid Life or Retirement.

So grab your iPad or a piece of paper and pencil and divide a page into three columns. At the top of Column 1 write ‘Position’; at the top of Column 2 write ‘Property’ and at 3 write ‘Price’.

This is where you answers will go –what about  the questions?

Start with the emotional outcomes. If you are a single or child-free couple you might be focusing on car-spaces, benchtops, or a groovy locale. But think in terms of a bigger picture. Imagine your life five years from now. Maybe you’ll meet somebody, leave somebody, get a job, lose a job, go to Nepal, discover the punt. The point is your price column shouldn’t tie you down to a life of endless mortgage payments; your property column should have room for a spouse or child or renter; and your position should go beyond the one funky suburb. Your best emotional outcomes are flexible ones.

If you have Young Children, your focus will be on how the house can accommodate you all happily as the family grows. So think hard when filling in the ‘Property’ column on how the floorplan can combine supervision with some separation. With Older Children your emotional focus is schooling and transport. So when you fill out the Position column, remember that where you live in relation to schools and public transport determines how much time you’ll spend driving the kids around in the car.

In the Mid Life stage, there’s a chance you’ll make a big dramatic life change – move to the country  or overseas. But when you look at Price be careful you don’t rule out the possibility you may want to come back to a home in the city. In the Retirement stage your emotional focus will move back to the Position column – to somewhere you can easily walk to a cafe, catch a train and see your doctor.

In terms of the financial outcomes in your life your answers will revolve around Growth (building wealth to give you choice later in life), Cash flow (allowing you to live for the now) and Risk (allowing you to sleep at night). All boring but necessary.

Once you have a PPP plan, looking at each home becomes much easier and quicker because you know what you want. You can assess each home against your plan rather than looking at each home and then trying to work out a plan to fit.

If your PPP Plan is functioning well then the question asked at the start: ‘Do I buy now or do I wait?’ can be answered relatively easily. It’s not so much about getting the timing right, but about the property itself: does it meet my PPPs plan and does it feel right? Yes? Well then, buy it! No? Wait and keep looking.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s $Million Plus property magazine

To help us get a sense of what happened this year in Melbourne’s Top End property market, on both sides of the fence, we asked some of the greats of Melbourne real estate – our Legends – to give us their perspectives. We also asked them to take a longer historical view on how this year compared with the recent past and on how it might impact on the market when it opens again next year.

Peter Batrouney – Jellis Craig – 0419 005 236

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand was not quite as strong as 2010. However for a prime property such as 47 Kinkora Rd Hawthorn it is a very strong market still.
Supply is holding and our own stats support that.
Prices are down by 10-15%

Where are we on the price cycle compared to 2007 peak, 2008 GFC or say 2010. And what do you think will happen to price early next year?
Next year I expect the market to open up briskly as it has always done in my 43 years of tracking it. February is statistically the most successful month in which to sell.

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
This has been a year of two markets.. The year stated strongly with supply and demand well balanced after a slow end to 2010. Most surplus stock from 2010 was mopped up early in the new year and prices were comparatively strong.

About mid year however, the news of Europe started to dominate, which initially lowered supply. But at the same time we saw sliding prices (meaning demand dropped even more).
One thing that has become apparent is the flight to quality. Main roads and other distractions have almost become unsalable in Port Philip, particularly in the $2 million plus range.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
In one sense, having a breather after the price spikes of 07 and 09 is not such a bad thing, as 20% growth per annum is unsustainable. The question is, is this a breather or a five year flat market?

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand was steady for the first half of the year across all price ranges. In the second half there was a noticeable drop off in demand above $2 million. Up to and around $1 million has remained steady. Supply contracted sharply mid year and rebounded strongly over October and November, noticeably easing prices. Overall the market faded toward the finish line with many properties failing to attract buyers at any price. Subsequently a significant number have been withdrawn from sale altogether. In closing, it is fair to say that prices across the board have dropped by 10 to 15% this year.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
The current price cycle mirrors the worst of 2008 and much like the early 90s buyers are remaining cautious and largely unresponsive to the downward movement in pricing that has occurred throughout 2011. The ongoing negative media coverage of the market has no doubt influenced many would be buyers to ‘sit on the fence’.

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
In 2011 we have seen a reserved correction in terms of pricing as a result of general uncertainty and fear as a result of world economies and media commentary across the many markets in which we operate.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
2012 in my opinion will represent great buying opportunities to those looking to enter the market or upgrade an existing property.

Alastair Craig – Jellis Craig – 0418 335 363

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand has been strong for the good quality period/modern homes in the A Grade streets
Supply is down approximately 10%
Pricing West of Burke Road is very stable. East of Burke Rd prices are down 10-15%
When the market gets a little tougher, buyers tend to stick close to Glenferrie/Cotham Rd (The school belt)
Pricing is approximately 10% down overall from the peak of the market – Easter 2010

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
2012- Hawthorn/Kew to remain steady. East of Burke Road has already fallen 15% and may thus remain stable.

Rob Vickers-Willis – Abercromby’s – 0412 210 066

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
With the economic uncertainty from Europe and the continual fluctuations of the share market in the USA we have seen confidence drop in the Australian economy and share market.
This, along with the negative media over a period of time, has caused the market to drop between 5-10 % this year. Many vendors with A-plus rated properties have not placed them on the market, which has compromised the quality of stock. B-grade real estate is bringing average prices so the quality of property is not on offer and therefore prices have fallen. This is a trend that will most likely continue through the first half of 2012.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
We are probably half way through the cycle and, depending on what happens to the European markets and the RBA (if they have the balls to drop rates by another 75 basis points by April 2012), we will then see the cycle slow or jump ahead. I expect property prices to vary 1-5% up or down or stay constant for the next 12 months.

Andrew Stuart – Hocking Stuart – 0418 329 960

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
2011 has been a tough year! And yet along with that it has brought opportunities!
Opportunities to ‘skill up’ your staff, particularly in the area of selling in tough conditions, keeping track of that elusive buyer, and still endeavouring to achieve respectable outcomes for your clients.
Clearance rates in Bayside have remained fairly steady throughout the year at around 50-60%.
In previous years approximately 30% of the properties we sold were to investors. This year probably that figure is closer to 10%! Given that, coupled with more people looking to rent rather than to buy, you can understand why rental properties are very hard to find and why weekly rent is going through the roof! Demand has slipped! Supply of saleable properties has declined with many vendors still clinging to prices of 2 years ago. Therefore fewer properties have been selling for cheaper prices.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
However, the good news is that I reckon we are at 6 o’clock. Things will improve from here. The question is: When?!!

John Bongiorno – Marshall White – 0418 328 056

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
It has been a challenging year, however properties well priced have continued to sell successfully in this market.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
In regard to prices compared to previous years, there are so many different market places within our markets – it is difficult to pinpoint movement, in some instances prices have held firm, in others there have been price adjustments compared to previous years.

I am optimistic about 2012 and I believe the adjustment to prices will see astute buyers take advantage of the market place that exists currently and create more activity than 2011.

Iain Carmichael – Bennison Mackinnon – 0418 850 988

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
It has become evident that buyer demand for most sectors of the residential market across Melbourne’s inner suburbs has receded from the highs of late 2010. Buyers have become more studied in their approach and are less inclined to negotiate on properties that are overpriced. Accordingly, people are taking longer to make buying decisions and family buyers are quite prepared to ‘walk away’ from properties that do not meet their needs. On the plus side, buyers are still prepared to pay fully for well located properties offering the right accommodation.
When prices fall in inner Melbourne, supply follows.  This time around is no exception to that rule and its not surprising that fewer people are choosing to sell right now. This very fact actually maintains buoyancy in the market.
A clear reduction in the level of ‘irrational exuberance’ in the market place has occurred for all sorts of reasons -  uncertainty, uneasiness and apprehension to name three.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
Who knows where we are on the Price Cycle? On the ‘economic clock’ we are probably at about ‘twenty past’. Prices will be flat at best in 2012. All the more reason to select the right agent who really understands how to maximise selling prices on behalf of vendors, rather than just making another a sale! On the other hand, real estate prices could well re-bound if the European economy falters and private investors move funds from equities. The money has to go somewhere!

Bert Stewart – Buxton – 0418 350 199

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand has been reasonably strong overall, especially at the bottom end of the market below the $1,500,000 range.
Supply is certainly down on the previous year because of the vendor’s uncertainty of what’s happening with the global financial situation, people tend to be conservative in times like these.
Prices have come off 10% to 20% in the top end of the market but have held better in the bottom end.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
Compared to the price cycle of the last 3 years I believe prices are below, but having said that for prestige properties with a wow factor in excellent locations and priced well, they are selling well.
Prediction of the market next year would be steady as she goes with the first batch of auctions in February and March a strong barometer of what will happen going forward.

Michael Gibson – Kay and Burton – 0418 530 392

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
2011 has been the year of continual market fluctuations which has made giving accurate advice extremely difficult. Since the start of May supply and demand have been lower however the properties that tick all the boxes have continued to sell well.
Prices have come off in varying degrees; 5% to 15% depending on the quality of the offering, with market conditions perhaps similar to that of 2008.  The auction clearance rates do not reflect the current underlying strength in the market.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
2012 will be determined by local interest rates and confidence levels of the world around us, and to that end let’s hope rates come down and confidence goes up!!

Phillip Kingston – Gary Peer – 0414 353 547

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Whilst there were many highlights, overall most agents/agencies will be glad to shut the doors on the 2011 real estate market.

Lower prices, a lower volume of transactions, less competition and longer ‘days on market’ will ensure most agents holiday locally this summer rather than venturing overseas (if they will holiday at all).  A reported closing of eight real estate agencies per month in 2011 meant only the strong, well organised companies survived.

The year started with a bang with good clearances and healthy buyer competition in February and March. This provided a misleading perception about the late 2010 market jitters, which was only temporary. The next three months (April, May, June) really set the tone for the year to come as selling prices were rapidly corrected upon buyers refusing to pay precedent prices. Conversely many vendors who had price expectations based on the prior ‘bull’ year weren’t willing to accept the new market conditions. Those who did were the ultimate winners as prices progressively declined through the year albeit at a very slow rate.

By mid-year the ‘new market’ had set in and transactions were occurring creating a new level of pricing that resulted in many vendors withdrawing from the market resulting in low offerings.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
I would like to think 2012 will be a ‘hot’ real estate year, but realistically I don’t think it will be. It will most likely be a balanced market between buyers and sellers prepared to transact at today’s prices. Good, unique, well-positioned properties will still be sought after and often will attract a premium prices as stock levels are not likely to be as high as they were in previous years.

Rodney Morley – TBM Woodards – 0418 321 222

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
As you know the weaker market we are experiencing is caused by a shift in the demand and supply cycle.  Demand has dropped whilst supply over the year has not dramatically fallen, resulting in fewer purchasers, with a greater choice.

In the last two months the gap has increased further in the buyers favour, i.e. demand down and supply up.  As a result of these market forces prices have softened.

The peak of the market was October 2009 – March 2010, I believe across the board in the area that I operate there has been a 10 – 15% reduction in prices from the peak.

Obviously, there are exceptions, especially when properties tick all the boxes. Few have exceeded the previous peak unless due to exceptional circumstances i.e. – adjoining property holders, unique properties etc.

Due to the rolling crisis in Europe, buyer’s confidence has been reduced.  In good times people confidently purchase prior to selling their own properties but with confidence levels lower, conservatism creeps in and buyers are reluctant to stretch the purchase price as they take a more conservative view of their trade in.  This is why we aren’t experiencing huge percentage increases over and above the reserve prices.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
As mentioned above, we are certainly below the 2010 peak.  My experience is that sentiment is more negative now than the 2008 GFC.  I believe prices in the New Year will be similar to what we are currently experiencing now (10-15% lower than the March 2010 peak) and expect them to remain at these levels in the forseeable future.

Of course if  GFC 2 occurs, as several commentators are predicting, combined with a lack of confidence in the current government, prices could further reduce into 2012.

It will be interesting to see the reaction to today’s second interest rate drop in 2 months.  However, past history has demonstrated the biggest gains in housing prices have been accompanied by considerably higher interest rates than we are currently experiencing.

Geoff Cayzer – Cayzers – 9699 5999

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand
The demand in the Inner City Bayside Area has diminished quite considerably over the last 12 months. The market has been supported by the movement of local people within the surrounding districts. There is strong sales evidence that indicates that buyers have endeavored to upgrade in the current market.

Supply
The supply of properties over the last 12 months has been similar to recent years. With the Melbourne auction conversion rate being in the mid 50% has seen a lot of properties being passed in and available for private sale. With the compression of new auctions and the backlog of private sales it has seen a wonderful cross section of quality properties from which the public can choose on the open market.

Price
With the slowing down of the sales conversion rate and the lack of confidence of buyers it has seen a definite discount across the board with regard to price. In some examples there has been a definite 5 – 10% reduction in the sale price when compared with last year. Whilst all vendors have been prepared to reduce their asking prices they will not accept silly offers as they still retain good equity in their property and are prepared to wait until the market improves.

Why?
With the compounding factors of the overseas economic climate uncertainty in the share market and lack of confidence of the buyers it has seen nervousness throughout the market. Potential buyers have still inspected properties and have shown interest but have been unprepared to make a formal commitment. Conversation with higher priced owners has indicated that they are hoping for an improvement in the market in 2012. That has yet to been seen!

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
We are of the opinion that with the rises and falls during the period 2007 – 2010 that the market throughout 2011 has been of a similar type. The major difference that we have noticed is that people selling during the GFC had to sell whereas the people under pressure in 2011 have elected to hang on until the market corrects accordingly. We see a slight improvement in 2012 but do not believe that the market will get the previous heights of prices achieved in previous years.

This Melbourne Auction scene was especially commissioned of Kym Hart and presented to Architect Adam for achieving a significant milestone with the company during the year. We love auctions!

Big auction, big crowd and big bidder numbers: 98-100 Mont Albert, Canterbury, Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig), under the hammer, $3,380,000, 6 bidders

End of Spring Market Summary

Bidderman: The stats over the last 3 weeks (below) highlight in our opinion exactly what has been happening to a large extent all year. Two weeks ago we reported 27 bidders on 5 homes and 14 bidders combined on the other 21 auctions. Last week it was the same story – 17 bidders on 4 homes auctioned and only 15 bidders combined on the other 21 homes that we reported on. This week we had 26 bidders on 7 homes and 24 bidders combined on the other 27 homes we reported on. If you are hot, you can be really hot and if you’re not then you need a panadol and a good agent.

Clearance Rates: Basically on auction day you have a 50/50 chance of selling – although demand for $3m+ properties has weakened in last fortnight.

Stales: (long term pass-ins) The market is acting on properties where prices have been adjusted, and continuing to pass over homes where the vendor remains committed to a price rather than a result. One month after Super Saturday a full third of the homes that went to auction still had not been sold. It is not true for agents to say they are all being cleaned up. They are not.

Expressions of Interest – are no different to auctions. At the Top End last month we nominated 8 homes to monitor as having Expressions of Interest closing dates either side of the Melbourne Cup. Of those eight, four (50%) have sold around the proposed closing time and the others remain on the market. The four that have sold were goodies and they got exceptional prices. The other four – well, they remain unattached to a buyer.

The Top 3 things buyers can do to take advantage of what is on offer before Christmas.

1)   Find: Off markets, stales, rebadgers and pass-ins. Many homes are being re-presented after failed campaigns early in the year. If they failed on price then, why pay it now? Off markets are back in season as many recent buyers would be keen to see a quiet sale before Christmas rather than wait till 2012 – there may be a bargain there. Stales – don’t give up. If it’s a home you like then revisit with a  written offer – even if the asking price is baloney. Rule One in this market: if you don’t ask, you don’t get. Man up and put the offer in!

2)  Assess Price: Use past sales carefully and change their meaning – sales of six months ago are now the ceiling prices, not the floor prices (as in previous years). The market is going backwards in price, not forwards (A graders excepted).

3)   Negotiate: As buyers if you want to negotiate to your advantage while still maintaining a reasonable level of risk in terms of buying versus missing out on the home, then you need to be able to apply the Fisherman’s Friend Wet Fish Slap on overpriced homes. You know the commercial – where she gives him an uppercut with a wet fish. If the price is baloney and you are not going to pay it, don’t walk away – you may be doing yourself and the seller a disservice, as you may in fact be the best buyer. Go and hit the seller with the Fisherman’s Friend Wet Fish Slap and then apply pain relief afterwards. This is exactly what our selling agent friends have been doing for years in post auction negotiations. They hit you hard with a big number, then they offer to relieve your pain (slightly). So if you have a sensible price, go and offer it – you may well be the seller’s best deal and if you walk away because of your timidity, then both you and the seller lose. If aFisherman’s Friend Wet Fish Slap is not your caper consider hiring a professional who can help you – it’s invigorating. And of course if it doesn’t have the desired effect – consider moving on.

Saturday 26th November Weekend Auction Results

Bought

• 98-100 Mont Albert Road Canterbury (Alastair Craig) – $3,380,000 – 6 bidders
• 25 Grange Road Kew (James Tostevin) – Around $3,000,000 – 1 bidder
• 24 Anderson Malvern East (Heather Elder) – Around $3,000,000 – 2 bidders

Passed-In

• 2 Collins St Brighton – $2,975,000 – 0 bidders
• 1022 Malvern Road Armadale – $2,800,000 – 0 bidders
• 21 Wattle Road Hawthorn – $3,050,000 – 0 bidders
• 68 Molesworth Kew – $4,600,000  – 0 bidders
• 20 McGregor Middle Park – $3,200,000 – 0 bidders

Friday 25th November – 58 Howitt Road, Caulfield North has been bought for a record Caulfield price according to the effervescent Ross Savas of Kay and Burton. The price;  well can say they were talking $6 million and the calibre of the home leads us to conclude they would have got that, so over is definitely not out of the question. This was a truly great home, our James Home Rating of 838/1000 is one of the highest we have scored this year. The market is obviously still recognising and paying for great quality.

Thursday 24th November – 25 Montalto Avenue Toorak ( Nicole Gleeson) – Basically land only for the area as the home requires a serious reno – passed-in last Saturday on a lone vendor bid of $3,450,000 was bought today for an undisclosed amount.

Wednesday 23rd November – 58 Glyndon Rd, Camberwell (Jock Langley) Private Auction  BOUGHT over $3,300,000: Attended this mid week private auction  just in case a bargain was to be had. No bargain, with a very healthy Tim Derham – Abercromby’s auction – 3 bidders and passed in for $3,300,000 and bit – deal was negotiated after wards in excess of that figure. Strong result – this is still outer Camberwell!
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Big home in the “almost ‘burbs” on 2100 sqm with tennis court – it’s all about the land. Set down for a private auction as opposed to a public one – (mmmmm, that’s an interesting twist) on November 23rd. What is the land per sqm at this size worth? How many other competitors do I really have in this market? Am I better to go before and if not successful how will I manage a Jock Langley pass-in?

Monday 21st November – 6-8 Myrtle St Brighton (Barb Gregory). This last weekend’s biggest auction – and another private one at that, was completed at a price over the quote of $6,000,000. So another solid Golden Mile sale with land in excess of 1600 sqm plus some solid improvements and another good result for Marshall White in Brighton. While private auctions are very secretive they seem to meet the vendors requirements for privacy and a buyers liking for transparency – perhaps a way of the future for some key homes.

Subdued mood: Toorak, 25 Montalto Ave, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), passed-in $3,450,000, no bidders

Saturday 19th November: At auction only two out of ten were reported as sold at the $3m+ level.

• 19 Florence St, Kew (Diana Healy) – Bought for over $3,600,000
• 2 Monomeath Pl, Canterbury ( Richard Earle) – Bought after for over $3,100,000

Pass-Ins at

• 47 York St, Kilda West – $3,800,000
• 24 Monaro Rd, Kooyong – $3,500,000
• 25 Montalto Ave, Toorak – $3,450,000
• 9 Berry St, East Melbourne – $3,200,000
• 11 Victor Ave, Kew – $3,000,000
• 2 Snooks Crt, Brighton – $3,000,000
• 26 Stawell St, Kew – $2,950,000
• 6-8 Myrtle St Brighton – undisclosed

Overall quite a weak day – although having been through many of those pass-ins I can say that a number were not the most exciting of offerings.

Friday 18th November: The Christmas Stock Flood has really gained some momentum in the last week with a large influx of homes coming onto the market right now – especially at the Top End (look at our stock graphs in Market News). This has to be good for buyers. Where in recent times our main role has been finding quality homes – the bulk or our work has moved to assessment and negotiation. Price is such a movable beast right now and it’s good, as a buyer, to have an open mind and strategies (within your acceptable risk v reward parameters) to take advantage of the lay of the land. Please that is not to say that all the goodies are being given away – far from it – but once a home falls into that certain category (eg stale, overpriced or a B grader) then significant discounts are possible – if the vendor wants to sell. Yes you need to know what to do, how to do it and when to do it – but professional advice can fill that knowledge gap for you. Two properties purchased in the last fortnight or so $700,000+ off the original asking price and that was a $3m home and $300,000+ off the original asking price and that was a $2,000,000 home. The market is operating normally – however now, more so than at any other time this year, it is a true buyers’ market – Great Choice and Negotiable Prices. Buy Well.

Wednesday 15th November: 4 Kiers Court Caulfield North (Phillip French)  one of the more distinctive homes I have seen this year is now reported as sold in excess of $3,000,000. Our James Home Rating was 684/1000 (see below) and what the owners did with a difficult block was in my opinion, amazing and the price was solid. Also a huge block at 181 Gipps St East Melbourne (Sarah Case) over 1000 sqm was bought undisclosed (over $5,000,000) and finally to complete the RT Edgar trifecta 29 Loch St, St Kilda West (Anthony Grimwade) almost 1000 sqm plus period home was bought for $3,800,000.

Tuesday 14th November: 3/61 Nepean Highway Aspendale (Rowan Thompson) which we reported as passed-in on the weekend, has now been bought for $3,150,000.

TOORAK 49 Mathoura Road, Justin Long, 4 Bidders, $5,220,000

Saturday 12th November: 3 biggies – 2 bought and 1 passed in.

47 Kinkora Rd, Hawthorn, Peter Batrouney (Jellis Craig); Under the hammer, $5,660,000, 4 bidders
Grace Park, north-facing rear, big land and beautiful period home. Some may say a drover’s dog could sell this on a sunny day, but that would be unfair on Peter Batrouney and Campbell Ward. This writer knows for sure we will get a first rate performance and in all likelihood a very solid result. About 120 have gathered in the back yard and we begin with a vendor bid of $5,000,000. Quickly in $50,000s between Bidder 1 and Bidder 2 we reach $5,300,000 and a half time break. Two more bidders join in and it’s on the market at $5,500,000. A few more bids and it’s all over at $5,660,000. A typical successful Peter Batrouney and Campbell Ward / Grace Park auction.

49 Mathoura Road Toorak, Justin Long: Under the hammer, $5,220,000, 5 bidders
Justin Long is a very experienced and capable auctioneer and he needed to be today as he was put under pressure by bidders constantly trying to reduce the bids he was calling for. He held firm time and time again, and in the end the vendors would have to think (whether they were happy with the price or not) that without Justin’s skill and endeavours, this property might not have been sold this weekend. Five bidders all with their own individual strategies locked horns for 45 minutes involving breaks and multiple “is it on the market?” questions. The opening bid was $4,000,000, the property declared on the market at $4,950,000 and eventually bought under the hammer for $5,220,000.

Biggest Pass In: 3/61 Nepean Hwy, Aspendale, Rowan Thompson (RT Edgar); Passed in $3,000,000, 1 bidder
The excitement was in the air and the house was buzzing with people enjoying the sunshine and the stunning panoramic view of the beach literally on the doorstep.  With only 500 beach front homes in Melbourne, explained auctioneer Rowan Thompson to the large crowd of 100, the “international standard resort style property” represented  a wonderful opportunity.  Mr Thompson opened proceedings with a vendor bid of $2,800,000 and sought $100,000 rises.  With Mr Thompson’s encouragement, a bidder from the crowd obliged with a bid of $2,900,000.  A vendor bid of $3,000,000 followed and despite Mr Thomson’s best efforts, there was no further bidding on the day and the property was passed in on the vendor bid.

Friday 11th November: This is a typical week at the Top End for me. I have been through the following homes, given them a James Home Ratings (not for public display), calculated buyer value and price ranges and noted a few negotiation strategy issues each home may present when attempting to maximise buyer outcomes:

PRICE: $3,000,000+ (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 7 Linacre Road, Hampton, (Jenny Dwyer)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Complex family home with water views (quality ones of Yacht Club), multiple living areas, 5 bedrooms on one level, dual staircases, basement and all on 635 sqm in one of Melbourne best inner seaside precincts. Price – that will be interesting as will the method of sale – both rare birds for this part of the world right now.

PRICE: $5,250,000 (Asking Price)
POSITION: 29 Seymour Grove, Brighton (Ian Jackson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: North-facing rear, brand-new build on a big block around 1,000 sqm. Upstairs is very good, perhaps a lift was needed at this price. It’s to a formula and one that always sells when buyer meets seller or vice versa on price – that meeting price – well that is the big question? I remember going to the land auction around the start of the GFC (early 2008) and it was bought quite well at $2,100 per sqm – bought quiet well, considering what other knockdowns in this street and Wolseley had gone for, a short time before this auction.

PRICE: $8,000,000 ish (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 18 Fitzroy St, Kilda (Michael Gibson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Has already received a lot of publicity due to its current owner and the facade photograph is wonderfully enticing. A home of pluses and minuses for different family types. One of the real pluses for some families would be the rooftop pool – spectacular is an understatement. Location is also smack bang in the middle of the action. Building was an advertising agency office in a previous life – although much of the work was already done when this last sold (twice in 2004 between $3,000,000 and $4,000,000) .

PRICE: $6,500,000 plus (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 21 Isabella Grove, Hawthorn (Scott Patterson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: It’s a trip back in time. The entrance really looks like a movie set from Charles Dickens (love the dome). One of the most powerful views for me was actually through the kitchen window of what would have been servant’s quarters – the form the steps take going back up across the road stick in my mind. The home itself is obviously one for specific tastes and you will have a few issues to get your head around if you are going to be the buyer – but that could be well worth the mental effort.

PRICE: Circle $10m to $12m (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 1 Harcourt St, Hawthorn East (James Tostevin)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Most “in the trade” would describe this as a big thumper and the agent quote estimate says you are going to need a big wallet to match. Valuing this would require an open mind and purchasing well, would require a firm base on goals and a flexible strategy to test on many levels. The house – well – it’s not about the house, there are bones to work with. No, in my opinion it is all about is the land and more to the point the shape of the land and where the home sits and what you want and can do within its limitations. So is the land worth the $sqm of  say no 49 Harcourt which had two bidders at auction and went for over $7,200,000 last year or is there a discount involved? Challenges for all parties if this is to be a deal.

PRICE: In the picture you can see next door which was also subject to a similar campaign recently at a similar asking price tag ($20,000,000 to $30,000,000). The price –  if it does indeed sell – will be a source of conjecture, supposition and innuendo for months to come just like Shakespeare Grove was last year and just like when this home was so famously bought and sold last time (a decade ag0).
POSITION: 1 Towers Rd, Toorak (Michael Gibson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Wow – if you can work out a way to get through this home you should. An art deco masterpiece with pool, tennis court, contemplative gardens all on a Toorak acre. The entrance and view from the kitchen are very powerful. At this price level, there are many more questions, but it always comes back to one final one, when the others have been answered – How can I buy this for the best possible price? Your answer may well be determined by the relationships you keep.

PRICE: Around $3million is Agent Jock’s quote
POSITION: 58 Glyndon Rd, Camberwell (Jock Langley)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Big home in the “almost ‘burbs” on 2100 sqm with tennis court – it’s all about the land. Set down for a private auction as opposed to a public one – (mmmmm, that’s an interesting twist) on November 23rd. What is the land per sqm at this size worth? How many other competitors do I really have in this market? Am I better to go before and if not successful how will I manage a Jock Langley pass-in?

PRICE: Around $4,500,000 (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 68 Molesworth St, Kew (Hamish Tostevin)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: This is a home of thought and quality – and with a price tag quoted over $4.5m if you are going to be the buyer you are going to have to put some thought and quality into how to go about this – such as, what is this home really worth? It is a very specific home – big in size, lifts, views, a lot of WOW. Attention to detail is obvious. But what about heating and cooling and sun with all that glass. Land value is not hard but home value – is this a $1.5m or a $2.5m build and will that matter? One of those buys where process is so very important if you want to buy well. A rare offering for the modern home buyer and worthy of serious consideration.

Grand Sale Land Sale in Kew - Tender Closing Today (Friday 11th November). It will be interesting to see what happens at 6-12 Madden Grove Kew on this mini-subdivision of 4 blocks around 600 sqm each. Mark Dayman and Antony Woodley taking in the offers and have expectations above $2,000 per square metre.

Thursday 10th November: Another three strongish Toorak buys in the last week.

• 16 Kenley Court Toorak (Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton) – Bought for over $12 million for nearly 2000 sqm of land a very substantial home. James Home Rating 779/1000. Excerpt from James Home Rating:

The big pluses for me are the court location, the look from the street and the gardens – tranquil, serene, sanctuary – all those words that are antonyms to stress. This is what the gardens are, and for me they are the major selling point to 16 Kenley. The home, well for most of us (i.e. those who can’t afford it) it’s a rare and magnificent home. However for buyers at this level I think they will find some issues with the floorplan – especially the position and connection between the kitchen and living area  and the front staircase so close to the front door. This seems an afterthought and does detract a little from the majesty of the entrance. Walking through the home I keep thinking of the gardens, the location and the land size more so than the building. However if you can afford 16 Kenley then you can afford to make the changes you want. And so, like almost offerings at this level in Toorak, it comes back to: when do you want to buy, what is available, what is the right exchange price and how best do you go about the process?

• 24-26 Balmerino Ave, Toorak (Justin Long of Marshall White and Hugh Hardy of Bennison Mackinnon) – 1850 sqm of land inc tennis court. Passed in at the Thursday afternoon auction for $7,000,000 and was bought immediately afterwards for an undisclosed amount. As I went through this home it felt mostly about the land and the sweeping views, however I suppose that is the way with almost all Toorak homes. The end result was $3,800 per sqm approx.
• 4 Lisbuoy Court Toorak (Nicole Gleeson and Michael Gibson) – Townhouse with some land, bought for over $4,000,000.

Greg Costello and Tim Wilson in full swing on the Brighton Golden Mile - continuing to sell at $10,000 per sqm. See report below

Week Ending November 5th: Has the action returned after the September excitement was followed by an early October siesta? We think yes – it is back. People do have cash and they are parting with it when they find the right home. In the last 10 days at least 9 homes over $4 million have been bought and sold.

Some Auction Results this weekend

• Biggest Sale: 2 Mytton Grove, Brighton, Greg Costello (RT Edgar); Under the hammer $6,050,000, 2 bidders
  Brighton Golden Mile Beachfront – these are four words that mean money. In recent times that has meant $8000 to $10,000 per sqm – at least at the northern end. A question our auctioneer Greg Costello asked in his opening spiel was “is this southern part of the Golden Mile more highly regarded than the northern part due to the activity on the beachfront?” Personally, as I run past here every day I think yes, but the auction result will tell us for sure. With the blue sea as our backdrop I’m expecting an exciting auction – irrespective of the market this stuff always sells. Greg Costello is conducting proceedings in front of a small crowd of 30. We start with an opening bid of $4,850,000 from Bidder one. $5,000,000 comes in from Bidder two strongly – solid bid. $5,100,000 from a third bidder – who as it turns out was with Bidder one – so we don’t count him – strange strategy that one. Anyway with a fair bit of action we move up to $5,600,000 in various amounts and then to $5,750,000. At all times Bidder two looks in control and is bidding very well and with some intimidation without being over the top. Normally Greg Costello is in excellent form but today was not his best day with bid retention and there are a number of confusing referrals back to his penciller for clarification. At $5,900,000 the “is it on the market?” question was asked, and after a quick referral, an affirmative answer is returned. There are two more decisive bids from Bidder two and its all his at $6,050,000. Loved the winning bidder’s style – aggressive and sensible and much better than his opponent and also many so called professionals that I have witnessed recently – well done sir – we have a job for you here if you care to apply. (Mal James)

• Other Brighton Golden Mile Results: 2 Mytton at $6,050,000 divided by 613 sqm = $9,869 per sqm or almost identical for previous absolute beachfront sqm rates over the past year (which have maintained themselves in the last year and increased on previous high water marks). 8 Moule Avenue (David Hart) is a classic Golden Mile address (but not absolute beachfront) and sold this weekend for $2,310,000 or $3,510 per metre. On first glance that is not expensive, but it is in fact not too far off previous Golden Mile sqm rates. A third Golden Mile property 15 Dudley St (Regina and Brian) sold for in excess of its pass-in figure at $4,400,000 which, again considering the house was nothing other than a nice facade, was a very, very solid result.
• Biggest Pass In: 58 Kooyongkoot Rd, Hawthorn, Scott Patterson (Kay & Burton); passed in, $3,400,000, no bidders
  Could you find a better setting for a Melbourne Spring auction? A tranquil backyard by the pool! In front of around 60 people, auctioneer Scott Patterson gave his usual professional best to attract some crowd bidding but this was to no avail. The property passed in after two vendor bids – $3,300,000 and $3,400,000 respectively – and remains for private sale. (Adam Woledge)
• Bidderbuzz Auction: 15 Chastleton Ave, Toorak, Warwick Anderson (RT Edgar); Under the hammer, $4,135,000, 4 bidders
  Spirited bidding after a slow start was a welcome sequence at the auction of this single level home in Toorak. A crowd of 80 neighbours chatted quietly throughout the action, eagerly anticipating the value to be determined by the market. After opening on a vendor bid of $3,400,000 and the declaration that the council had valued the property at $3,700,000, auctioneer Warwick Anderson tried to keep pace with the determined 4 bidders. After the second vendor referral, Warwick announced the property on the market at $3,800,000 but the strong bidding continued, with bidder number 4 securing the home at $4,135,000. (Gina Kantzas)

RT Edgar: Has had a pretty solid time with 8 properties selling over $2 million in less than a week, including an off market at 68 Walsh St believed to be around $4 million, not mentioned in above dispatches.