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Game Changer

Game Changer
NOTE 17.6.17: This article was confirmed and published 3.6.17. Withdrawn 6.6.17 when we became aware of new information and remained so until 17.6.17 when we republished with new information. This story is now different from the original article published in good faith, however a lot of the gist of it remains true – except that the winning bidder of [...]
July has been fairly busy away from the auctions!

July has been fairly busy away from the auctions!

Hello and welcome back to James Buyer Advocates Marketnews. A few auctions of note today on very small numbers as the market awakes from its traditional Winter auction slumber.  We have covered 19 in our reporting; Bidderman was 2.4 bidders per auction and the $M+ James Clearance rate was 74% – even though a small sample, we think it’s an [...]
简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。

简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。

这是个概括,一个超级星期六的概括。John Morrisby就 40 Britten, Glen Iris 达成了交易,成交价$2,415,000 有3位竞标者。 墨尔本近郊数据 竞标人数 2 拍卖水平 245 清盘率74 竞标人数 零竞标者 1位竞标者 2/3位竞标者 4位以上竞标者 2      19%       19%       46%           16% 我们今天主要着重于关注高端房产,因为它是金矿中的黄宝石。如果市场有变化的话, 你将最早在高端领域看到,因为目前的市场是一个受高端房产驱动的市场。从传统上来讲,高端领域房产价格最容易受到影响,因此能很好反映情况。 今天我们报导的38场拍卖中有33场是超过二百万澳元的,并且其中近乎一半超过三百万澳元。你可能认为以下一些评论也许比较中立——我们不是——我们报导我们所看到的.我们看到一些变化,但是我们知道今天是一个超级星期六,而且我们集中关注的是一个传统的最少竞标者参与的部分——墨尔本高端领域中的高端,市场仍然相对强劲。 James 市场总结 每年这个周末是对春季市场的一个测试;因此我们今天把拍卖记录员派到各种不同的拍卖现场,从而来确认或否决拍卖现场到底在发生什么,并且墨尔本近郊百万澳元以上房地产市场是怎样的。 简而言之,今天的市场有点牵强,它没有像过去那样消化吞食上市房产,没有像今年五月份那样。 然而总体来说,我们觉得市场仍然是强劲的,只是没有像五月份那样强。 在上周你可以感觉到媒体评论,麦考利(Macquarie)和Westpac对一些范围有影响—— B级和C级房产。 即使上周末的市场统计数据也表明竞标者人数是强的,平均在5位左右,清盘率在80%,所有这些都基于大量的房产。今天处于2位边界线,清盘率也是在边界线上,我们这里所说的边界线是指市场强和正常之间的边界,而不是指市场坚挺和虚弱之间的边界。 和我们交谈过的中介报告说买者对公开房屋展示的兴趣和买者急切性有所下降,这是同中春的市场,同几个月之前的五月份市场相比较而言的,至于中介,他们的意见我们还是尊重的,他们仍然觉得市场是有支撑力的,只是力量没有像冬季前的白热化市场那样强,这点我们同意。 我们是否认为本周市场同上一周市场一样强——不。当1位竞标者人数和2到3位竞标者人数的拍卖百分比保持不动,而井喷的竞标者人数却急剧下跌,并且零竞标者情况在增加。 我们是否认为本周的市场同五月的市场一样热——不,我们认为自早春以来,我们已经确认过数次了。 我们是否认为市场正在下跌——也许,但是我们认为我们最好押宝押在市场在趋于平稳。 从一些历史角度来看: 这是一个巨大的周末,下面是James过去五年超级星期六的标题。 2015:简言之,今天的超级星期六市场有点牵强:清盘率74%,竞标人数2.0 2014:今天对买者来说非常艰难(就像预期的那样):清盘率77%,竞标人数2.1 市场在2015年初的变化速度从高速到超音速。 2013:超级,超级星期六!清盘率73%,竞标人数2.3市场继续在上升。 2012:市场在变坏还是在变好?我们认为是在变好!清盘率71%,竞标人数1.8. 市场在当月转向,并在后六个月上升,事实上一直升到现在。 2011:超级星期六:有些变好,大多数变坏:清盘率43%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在后六个月下降。 2010:这个超级星期六发生了什么?清盘率55%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在之后六个月下降,这确实是2010后期,2011和2012早期的非常平均走势的 开始。   那么总的来讲,2015的超级星期六对我们来讲意味什么? 市场的闲聊正在对市场增长的速度产生抑制作用。 虽然同过去的几个周末相比,今天的数字是下降的,那很可能只是由于市场上房产数量太大的缘故以及我们片面的只针对高端房产进行报导.对我们来讲任何的市场转向,尚未定论,但是我们承认在上一周出现了一些松缓的气氛。 通过与三个在上升市场的超级星期六相比(2012年10月到现在)这个周末的结果仍在同样的数值范围之内.就竞标者人数和清盘率而言,今天的结果仍然是我们称之为强势的市场。   毫无疑问,在高端领域出现了更多的流拍,这在市场变化过程中是正常现象,是的,市场可能在变化。这在市场存量激增的情况下也是正常的,是的,很可能是市场提供量的关系。我们根据今天所看到的还不能排除其中任何一种情况.当墨尔本市场发生变化时,它存在两种节奏——A级的(好的PPP好的价格,房子和位置)继续闪耀,B级的显示出了混合的结果,而C级的(差的价格,房子和位置)简单来讲卖不掉。这种情况现在正在发生,因为有些卖家把他们的价格目标定得越来越高,而买家的目标已开始平稳,甚至下跌。   是否墨尔本近郊市场已经发生改变? 可能,我们的意见是上周市场在自信上确实受到了新的创伤,但如果说这将产生比自信心受到更严重的情况还是为时过早,因此,我们将等到11月份再来确认这周是否是: * 短暂的停顿 * 水平矫正 * 或是游戏改变 十一月份三个星期的竞标者人数连同清盘率无论如何将告诉我们答案。 大的拍卖 11 Hilda Crescent, Hawthorn (Sam Wilkinson, Kay & Burton), 成交, $6,030,000, 3位竞拍者 26 Thanet Street, Malvern (Justin Long, Marshall White), 成交, $5,105,000, 2位竞拍者 9 Scotsburn Street, Hawthorn (Antony Woodley, Marshall White), 成交, [...]
Some Chinese buyers have worked out agent quoting, but many local buyers appear to have not.

Some Chinese buyers have worked out agent quoting, but many local buyers appear to have not.

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 90% on the 30 auctions we covered. James Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement continues to be through the roof on big stock numbers at 2.9. Hello, did we write 90% on big auction numbers  and Bidderman nearly 3 – is this real? [...]
Record Midweek Bayside – Wow!

Record Midweek Bayside – Wow!

Record Midweek Bayside – Wow! If ever you were not that sure about the A-grade home market, just attend a WOW auction with a great agent (Kate Strickland). In Bayside last week (Thursday) new records were set for the suburb at 41 Binnie Street, Brighton East (it was a great home and we were unfortunately the under-bidder – [...]
Spring has Sprung & Top End Market is Lifting

Spring has Sprung & Top End Market is Lifting

  The first week of September was all about the Federal Election. Auction activity returned to full swing on September 14. There were four auctions in Melbourne over $3m. See details below. Week Ending September 14, 2013 Biggest Auctions: Toorak, 10 Yarradale Road, Tim Derham (Abercromby’s), under hammer, $4,840,000, 4 bidders 80 or so are comfortably gathered in the backyard [...]
Stonnington Weekly

Stonnington Weekly

With a massive 47 auctions this weekend, Stonnington had a healthy 70% clearance rate overall – although clearance rates were less robust in the $2 million plus segment, at just 50%. Of the 8 auctions we covered this weekend, 2 were bought before, 2 were ducks, 1 was a lone ranger,1 was a norm and 2 [...]
Stonnington Weekly

Stonnington Weekly

Stonnington Snapshot The positivity in the market has continued into March with over 2 bidders at 6 out of the 7 auctions we covered today. There is now consistent evidence of buyers showing their readiness to transact. I was talking with Rae Tomlinson from Marshall White during the week, and she agreed: “There is activity happening [...]
Stonnington Weekly

Stonnington Weekly

Last weekend was the first test of the market and Stonnington passed with almost an “A” grade (in the old school standards), with a healthy 78% clearance rate.  This weekend we went even better with a strong 85% clearance rate overall. Of the 8 auctions we covered,  2 were bought before, 2 had no bidders and [...]
The market feels OK for now and last year’s positiveness seems to have continued. But stay tuned, it’s early 2013 days.

The market feels OK for now and last year’s positiveness seems to have continued. But stay tuned, it’s early 2013 days.

East Melbourne, 120 Powlett, Arch Staver, Under the Hammer, $5,155,000 – 4 bidders There was a festive air along Powlett Street this morning as real estate punters strolled in and out of historic homes open for inspection in this proud and peaceful pocket of Melbourne. With a crowd of 150 gathering under magnificent trees on the [...]
Stonnington Weekly

Stonnington Weekly

This year seems to have started where it left off – with a sense of buyers wanting to transact. Stonnington Snapshot Last year we did almost a third of our business for the year in the last 6 weeks of the year. In fact, we worked on deals till Christmas. Of particular interest were a [...]
Season Opener: February 16 – a quiet start to the year, but there are a couple of big weeks around the corner

Season Opener: February 16 – a quiet start to the year, but there are a couple of big weeks around the corner

Hey, isn’t it good to be back in amongst it in 2013! So far the anecdotal evidence is indicating the market is starting with a bit of a bang. Enquiry is up, the number of buyers through most opens is up, agents’ mood is up (compared to this time last year) and some of the [...]
Overall a Good Finish to the Year 2012!

Overall a Good Finish to the Year 2012!

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for $M+ was 58% on the 31 auctions we attended. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 2 bidders per auction. Today was back to a little quieter in terms of clearance rates, but there were some very strong results in terms of bidder numbers. Overall [...]
Boroondara Weekly

Boroondara Weekly

After an OK beginning to the Spring market that matched the OK weather, results this weekend were not too bad.
Spring’s first big test – Pass is the mark.

Spring’s first big test – Pass is the mark.

At 6pm on Saturday, the James $M+ Clearance Rate was 65% across the 31 auctions we attended – a solid result. The Weekly Review Bidderman was also a very solid 1.8 bidders per auction. There was a fairly even spread of ducks, lone rangers, norms and volcanoes. This weekend was the Spring Market’s First Big Test, with [...]

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