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The lesson(s) of 2018

The lesson(s) of 2018
9 am \ Surrey Hills Day started with a visit to an off-market home in Surrey Hills. This home has been for sale for over a year. Why? Price. To be an A-grade property you need to have all three Ps – good Property (building), good Position (land) at a good Price (market). This home had two out of three. In [...]
Big picture bleak, closer examination brighter!

Big picture bleak, closer examination brighter!

Its 6pm Saturday, week one of our fourth and final 2018, 3-week 100 Auction, Inner Melbourne Family Home, Market Temperature Test. Try saying that a few times! The results above and supporting data below are self-explanatory. Yes? No? Maybe? Have you been to an auction, EOI or off-market lately – is it a bit hit and miss? Not really. In fact, we [...]
How to buy a Top End home well – it’s different!

How to buy a Top End home well – it’s different!

INTRODUCTION If I told you buying a home at the Top End is more about trust than money, would you believe me? Maybe, maybe not. Well this is a story about 3 homes involving strategy, dealmaking and truths at the Top of the Top End. Towers Road, Toorak (Marcus Chiminello) Bought 2016: James Home Rating 942/1000 Kooyongkoot Road, Hawthorn (Ross Savas / Jeremy [...]
In some sections, the market hiccuped a little today

In some sections, the market hiccuped a little today

At 6 pm the James Clearance Rate was 73% on the 30 auctions we covered. Bidderman dipped to 2 bidders per auction. With a lot of stock on offer, we interpret these stats as a hiccup, more so than a radical change – but nonetheless a change could be on – see our references to B and C graders [...]
你好2016!半岛,墨尔本的公开房屋展示和James的启动要比报纸的标题更为乐观

你好2016!半岛,墨尔本的公开房屋展示和James的启动要比报纸的标题更为乐观

你好2016!半岛,墨尔本的公开房屋展示和James的启动要比报纸的标题更为乐观。 Mal James 2016.1.31 欢迎回到James买方代理2016,我们James市场新闻今年开始的比计划稍早了一点,因为在一月份就是现在我们感受到了实实在在的市场关注。 坚实的起步 今年(2016)我们已经参与了大量的买卖业务,目前已有七处房屋正在谈判之中,还有一些其他客户正在积极地寻找。这对2015来说有重要意义–意味着很多在2015年晚春想抓机会离开市场的买家又回来了而且更多的买家已经开始寻找。 房地产记者似乎相当消极——是吗? 一些买家由于在去年底看了一些媒体的文章,以为2016年不会有一个强势的开端。而今年的新闻,根据标题总体上也是消极的(我很高兴有些人很确认,但我不这么认为)。现在他们当然可能是对的!是的,市场很可能继续松弛,但是也有些因素显示市场可能轻易地向反方向发展。 在2月20日和27日两个周末后,我们将可以感到市场是如何的端倪,因按传统会有一些拍卖,然而我们觉得只有到了五月份我们才能真正知道市场是起还是落。 二月份市场总是有点活力的,很多有心理准备或急切的买家和卖家快捷地交易,因为经过圣诞节六周的休假,他们有足够的时间考虑——这很可能造成一个市场复苏的假象。 而且2016年早到的复活节的情况也会扰乱墨尔本近郊市场三月份和四月份的市场总体走向的信息。 半岛和它怎样影响高端市场 这个星期Gina和我为我们一位在Stonnington想要卖房的客户同一些销售经纪们进行了谈话,三个经纪中有两位谈到他们在Portsea/Sorrento的分部在圣诞节假期期间已经看到了可观的市场活力,他们两方都认为这是三百万澳元以上的房产市场在2016年初可能走向的积极的向导。 股票市场和其他澳大利亚国内经济领域的兴趣可能开始要影响房地产市场了,但是市场是跌还是涨,我们将不得不等着瞧——可能要到五月份早些时候(是的,当股市下跌,房产可能会上升,尤其是好的质地的房产)。 我们市场是否这样——我们不知道 谁都不能保证预测一定准确——这就是我们为什么不对总体市场做短期的估计——看看去年发生了什么——哇! 2015年对市场来说是不可思议的一年,总体上,公平地说墨尔本近郊质量好的家庭住房上涨了15%—20%,Domain报道说墨尔本上涨了14%——看上去基本是对的。这是基于墨尔本2013年部分近郊房产和2014年房价大幅上涨后的。 但是我们能预先看到价格波动异常——Brighton被低估了 上周Domain报道海湾区房价上涨要大于东区——我们同意并认为这只是时间问题,让我们参阅一下我们关于Bayside土地价格的2015年3月21日的文章。 总体市场在松动? 是的,绝对有可能。在去年(2015)年底市场呈现一些松动迹象,但是大多数年份在春季晚些时候,市场都会显示同样的迹象,这是由于大量房产涌入市场的原因。话虽如此,毫无疑问市场在2015年11月份的胃口已经没有像在2015年5月份那样贪婪了。 当我们说:“松动“——是指价格上涨的势头出现松动——我们没有看到墨尔本近郊房价全面下跌的情况。 北京在收紧? 我们认为2015年晚些时候的松动,主要是由于中国对东区兴趣有所减弱,而这种减弱主要是由于中国内部的问题和更多人人知道的令人羞愧的FIRB欺诈案例。那是2015年晚期,那2016年我们是否还会看到有如2015年早些时候出现的不可思议的中国人购买狂热? 孟买和墨尔本 没有人能确认市场在短期内(1——5年)会走向哪里。 我所考虑的经我在圣诞节在巴塔哥尼亚和印度休假得到进一步确认,就是墨尔本市场从长期来看,来自当地和海外购买者的需求是很强劲的,这个基本面可能会持续几十年,上百年。 北京是重要的,但是看一下孟买(哇,是什么样的一个地方啊!)看一看一个正在崛起的印度——不,不是板球队——是上升的人口和财富。 从地理面积来看澳大利亚的平方公里数比印度多一倍还多(770万平方公里对比330万平方公里)而我们的人口还不到印度的1/50(2400万对比12.5亿)。 我们有一个国际的开放门户的政策,允许在墨尔本购买土地和房屋,孟买严重缺乏房屋和基础设施······ 我在印度时代报刊上读到了这些,Lakh是10万。 城市(孟买)需要210万所房屋,而每年大约有二十万的家庭有需求,而那些控制了孟买房地产开发的私人开发商每年仅仅只能提供25000所房屋(就房屋开发而言,主要是因为政府放弃了它的责任)。 我还在印度时报上读到,也可能在纽约时报,伦敦时报,先驱太阳报或时代报上; 由于供不应求,所以孟买的土地价格持续上涨。 当你在下个公开的房屋展示以后,在Hampton的Brown Cow,或在Hawthorn的Porgie and Mr.Jones或在Armadale的The Coin Laundry喝一杯咖啡,看一下周围,也许你会看到20个人在咖啡店里,而同样的情况,在印度,你会看到超过一千个人在同一处吮吸着拿铁咖啡,一千个人,那只是印度。 这就是我唯一确切知道的——墨尔本长远的土地价格,如果北京短暂的停顿,那么孟买或里约或雅加达就会及时占据空挡。澳大利亚政府的政策是增长,增长,增长。不是说它是正确的,只是陈述政策。 只要保持这个政策,墨尔本就会保持对世界的吸引力,而从长远看墨尔本的土地价格就会上涨。我们确实是世界上最好的城市之一(2015年我去过日本,秘鲁,阿根廷,智利,纽约,坦赞尼亚和越南)而海外的人(需求)也确实,确实希望来这里生活。 对不起,让我们回到墨尔本公开房屋展示上来看看发生了什么? 就在上个星期我们James房屋评估去了21家在东区,Stonnington和海湾区的房屋,这里要对来找我的买家说一声谢谢!回来感觉真好。 13 Stanley, Kew; 4 Barina, Glen Iris; 5 Lyndhurst, Hawthorn; 4 Downton, Kew; 11 Sir Garnet, Surrey Hills; 14 Locksley, Kew; 13 Yarra, Hawthorn; 32 Alexandra, Canterbury; 2 Alexandra, Canterbury;  15 Suffolk, Surrey Hills; 23 Faversham, Canterbury; 2a Harcourt, Hawthorn East; 78 Sackville, Kew; 25 Alfred, Kew; 99 Illawarra, Hawthorn; 4 Munro, Ashburton; 16 Wellington, Brighton; [...]
G’day 2016!  The Peninsula, Melbourne OFI’s and James has started more positively than the newspaper headlines.

G’day 2016! The Peninsula, Melbourne OFI’s and James has started more positively than the newspaper headlines.

Welcome back to James Buyers Agents and Advocates 2016. We have started James Market News a little earlier than planned because we are experiencing solid market interest right here and now in January. SOLID START We have already been involved in substantial buys and sells this year (2016) and currently have seven homes in negotiation; with a [...]
The Market Begins the Big May Run – Hold On!

The Market Begins the Big May Run – Hold On!

Inner Melbourne Values $3M Round Up (Start of May and Some Around Easter Sales of Interest) As we kick into May and look back on April you can see the TOP END is still very healthy – sure some are not selling and some are being withdrawn but its not only Saturday Auctions that are getting [...]
Second Super Saturday in seven days and the upper auction market burps

Second Super Saturday in seven days and the upper auction market burps

At 6.00 pm Saturday the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 56% on the 45  auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement, was at 1.7. Market Summary On the face of it that was a big drop from last weekend’s “red zone” numbers. We agree – but it should be noted that our [...]
The 6 Auction “Majors”

The 6 Auction “Majors”

Published in the Weekly Review It attracts more anticipation than a Grand Final, and a bigger array of stars than the Cup Carnival. And the results are more telling than the Bathurst 500: that’s what Super Saturday, October 27th represents to the largest array of buyers and sellers on offer this year. This coming weekend was always [...]
Boroondara Weekly

Boroondara Weekly

On Saturday I attended four auctions in Boroondara and all four sold – yet only one of these was under the hammer. In a word, the market is very ‘mixed’ right now and with the Grand Final only five weeks away, pickings remain slim. This week I attended the Jellis Craig 2012 Client Seminar (thanks to [...]
Get Organised for the next Super Saturday – October 23rd

Get Organised for the next Super Saturday – October 23rd

The big news this week for homebuyers was not Gary Ablett or the GF Replay; it was the major stock inflows that took place on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday when agents began their marketing campaigns for the next Super Saturday - October 23rd. Check out the size of the Weekly Review this week. While one weekend does not make a summer, we now seem to have finally started the Spring surge. Prior to the Grand Final(s) stock was particularly low and prices were definitely beginning to firm on the back of this.
Boroondara had a strong week. No market turn obvious today.

Boroondara had a strong week. No market turn obvious today.

Strong day in Boroondara today for good properties, with many homes selling under the hammer and selling strongly. However not all auction results have been reported.   Scheduled Reported Ashburton 1 1 Balwyn 8 6 Balwyn North 7 6 Camberwell 7 7 Canterbury 1 1 Glen Iris 4 4 Hawthorn 4 4 Hawthorn East 9 4 Kew 14 7 Kew East 3 3   58 43 Some of the auctions that we attended – 8 Moorhouse Street Camberwell (Heather Elder, Marshall White). Sold for $1,997,000 – 4 bidders 14 Lyndhurst Crescent Hawthorn (Peter Batrouney, [...]
Bidderman Big in Boroondara

Bidderman Big in Boroondara

Although the sun was not really out, the bidders certainly were, with most properties over $1m selling in Boroondara today. Bidderman was strong at many auctions and there was no shortage of them. Talking to Richard Winneke from Jellis Craig this afternoon, the market, he believes, has gone up at least 10% since the end of [...]
Solid to Strong Weekend across Kew to Camberwell

Solid to Strong Weekend across Kew to Camberwell

19 Sales and Pass-Ins of interest over a million in Boroondara (not including Glen Iris) this week with 17 being sold. We were interested in land values in Kew, Balwyn and Ashburton and an old favourite finally sold in the Reid Estate. 50 Fellows St Kew – Peter and Trish Dixon of [...]
Paul Keane – Jellis Craig Boroondara

Paul Keane – Jellis Craig Boroondara

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Paul is a big-end-of-town agent getting multi-million-dollar deals in Hawthorn, Kew, Glen Iris and Canterbury on a fairly regular basis. We don’t always see eye to eye and have had some real scraps but, nonetheless, the respect is there for what he achieves for his selling clients. Paul does [...]

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