Prahran, 4 Grandview, Jeremy Fox, Under the hammer, $4,570,000. 3 bidders

Saturday March 31st: Solid finish to the month – partly as a result of vendors lowering their expectations as they feel the market may get worse before it gets better, partly due to some good stock and partly because buyers can’t really see anything of note on the market after Easter.

But to keep some perspective if you read our archived $3m+ reports of previous years you will see the same buoyant activity leading into Easter -  its after Easter that gets interesting.

Big Day at Auctions for the Top End

• Prahran, 4 Grandview, Jeremy Fox,  under the hammer $4,570,000, 3 bidders. This was a Super Saturday sizzler! Three determined bidders contested for this breathtaking property after auctioneer Jeremy Fox kicked things off with an opening vendor bid of $4,000,000. It was a little slow at first but the action heated up as the third bidder chimed in. He eventually secured the property for $4,570,000 and that sparked applause from the 130 onlookers.
  James Home Rating 865/1000 “I found it hard to find fault with this home – its WOW all over – the flow works brilliantly, locale for Prahran is in THE street and garaging, kitchen, laundry set up is efficient and classy – the north light is brought in nicely into living areas. The bedroom set up works and the reflection pools aren’t twee they are classy. Do I sound over the top on this? This home will fly and I mean fly unless the RT boys cook the quote or the vendor is dreaming. Best guide is 51 Murray St Prahran in May 2010 (See our rating and auction report, over $3,700,000) and the recent sale of similar land size without the same WOW by same company a couple of weeks ago at 22 Murray St (north of $3,400,000). Our suggested strategy to buy – dig deep on the day or go hard and early now!  ” Mal James

• Armadale, 3/50 Hampden, John Bongiorno, under the hammer, $3,360,000. 2 bidders.  Last sold for just over $2,500,000 in 2005.
• Toorak, 27 Selborne, Jeremy Fox, after auction,  $3,300,000, 1 bidder

Pass-Ins

• Toorak 49 Irving, Passed In on a vendor bid at $4,500,000
• Camberwell, 12a Royal, Passed In on a vendor bid at $4,100,000

February Top End Pass-Ins still really struggling a month later!

But it’s not all good news at this level if you don’t get the price right. A month ago we reported on ten auctions over $2.5 million. Two sold on the day and eight passed in. Since then only a further two have sold and both were below the pass-in price. Although the stat is on a small sample it says at this level 40% clearance rate after a month.

Friday March 30th: 2a Chelsea St Brighton with Sturt Hinton of Kay and Burton got away after an eternity on the market for an extremely healthy result of $3,600,000 (according to another agent).

Thursday March 29th: Expressions of Interest still working with Michael Armstrong moving 11 Moralla Road Kooyong – over $5million.

There has definitely been a resurgence in Bayside in the last few weeks at the top level and one new company that is giving the big boys a run for their money is Nick Johnstone of Nick Johnstone real estate – as you know we have a fair bit of time for him, as he actually gets off his back side and shows you homes, suggest alternatives, tells you asking prices (which a number of others for some stupid reason think should be a complete mystery) and follows you up. Good real estate at the Top End is not for rocket scientists – we know because we aren’t. Turning up with a sprinkling of facts and treating people with a certain level of decency is ¾ of the job. Anyway let’s look at Nic’s circa $3m sales this month alone in Brighton

• 1 Norwood – North facing land one back from the beach
• 20 Birdwood – James Home Rating of 714/1000
• 13 Halifax – ripper property see our James Home Rating 661/1000
• 19 St Ninians – heart of the Golden Mile see our James Home Rating 588/1000

And while on the subject of smaller boutique companies we have always liked the work of Paul Richards who sold 53 Barnard Kew for we believe over $6,000,000 earlier this month and we were amazed to see another company claiming the deal – anyway Bekdon Richards with Evan Lykourinos is a young company who also speaks reasonably accurately, gets out of bed early and pushes through some big deals quietly over the line.

And one for the big boys – Justin Long of Marshall White moved 8 Harvey St Malvern on Monday for we think over $4million – went through it late last year and thought it may take some time to shift – a credit to his persistence and if achieved anything over $4m in this market it would have been a good result for both parties.

Another one quietly gone in the Gascoigne (Kay and Burton) at circa $3m price level and the big one in Boroondara should emerge soon to give some small confidence at the Top of the Top End. Not trying to be tricky but we do respect privacy when asked.

Mortgagee Auction: 8 St Ninians Brighton, David Hart, Under the Hammer, $4,900,000, 3 bidders

Saturday 24th March: It is neck and neck for the strongest areas in the $3 million segment for March: so far Brighton has sold 7, Hawthorn, Kew and Canterbury also 7 and Toorak 6 for the month so far – daylight the rest.

• Brighton, 8 St Ninians, David Hart, $4,900,000, 3 bidders.
• East Melbourne, 125 Gipps St, the newly married Nathan Waterson should pay for the wedding with a private sale at slightly below $4,000,000. A great terrace home and a good result, but below initial ask and took a fair while for the vendors to come into line. Next door’s ask now seems even more courageous than when I first heard it. But I have had the taste of humble pie once or twice this month so will wait and see.
• Kew, 5 Tregarron Avenue, Sam Wilkinson – Expressions of Interest in the mid $3 millions. Now with Sam who has deservedly a good reputation at this level on these homes. Is he not the spitting image of young Brains on Thunderbirds!
• Hawthorn East a quiet one away for Nicholas Franzmann and hopalong Walter Dodich in the over $3m category. New home build – good result in the end.
• McKinnon, 41 Rose St – yep its not a misprint – McKinnon – Adam Joske and Phillip Kingston under the hammer at $70,000 short of $3,000,000. 3 bidders and a crowd of over 200.

Top  Pass Ins

• Brighton, 11 Alverna Grove,  passed in, $3,000,000, no bidders
  A big crowd turned out to have a look at this impressive 7 year old home overlooking parkland at the end of a dead end street….(See more in Auction Reports)
• Balwyn, 26 Metung, passed in, $3,000,000

The New Way to do Business at the Top End - An Abercrombys Private Auction - 11 Bates St Malvern East selling over $6 million – Jeff Gole and Tim Derham

Thursday 22nd March: The Abercromby Private Auction – possibly the new Expressions of Interest. Private Auctions are where a home is advertised usually for a mid week auction and only those who register interest are allowed to attend.

11 Bates St Malvern East was a great example of how it works. A number of pre arranged private inspections are organised during the course of an advertised auction campaign. A few days before the Private Auction (Thursday), all potential buyers register interest and are required to indicate a starting bid. In this case the written starting bid was $5.9 million (I’m not sure what that proves, but anyway).

They are by invitation only (and I saw some people being  turned away at the door). At 11 Bates three parties turned up. Two bid – well I think it was two – the spiel was given by Tim Derham and he declared that there were two pre recorded bids. One bidder asked to see them and she was duly shown the written bids. What surprised me was that she accepted them without asking Tim to point out who the actual written bid was from. But we move on. Anyway this feisty lady tried in all manner of ways to lower the bids (and good on her) until a $50,000 bid was accepted after Tim had cheekily asked for a $200,000 rise (well he tried hey!). The property was eventually passed in to the lady. A deal was done behind closed doors over the magic $6 million mark, post auction. Surprisingly despite the written bid, no-one else bid, including the writer of the bid. Mmmm!

Digressing slightly, this was in our opinion about the right money for this very rare and truly great home, given we figured it was worth $3m for the land and $3m for the home and the rest was going to be emotion. Read our James Home Rating if you wish.

But back to the Private Auction. Not only is it a civil way to conduct proceedings at the Top End but it also probably circumvents the new cooling off period laws – if an auction by invitation only still constitutes a public auction. That’s one for the legal boys.

This is the third of its type we’ve been to over $3m in recent times and all have worked (for the seller). As a buyer the normal rules apply as at a public auction – do your homework on value, have representation to protect your privacy and manage the bidding; and of course have a suitable post auction strategy to prevent the irresistible force of “Slapper” in full voice running you up the flag pole above fair and reasonable.

The more we see the Abercromby guys in action, the more impressed we are with how they do business at the Top End. Yes Tim Derham can hit you between the eyes when you least expect it and Jock can chew your ear off on why a home is worth such and such without necessarily dropping a fact into the conversation (he gets some very big deals over the line); but when you look at their line-up, which includes Rob Vickers Willis and Andrew Harlock, this Top End boutique agency is truly the hired gunslingers (with some morality) who are knocking the Top End around a bit right now. No we don’t get anything from them, but we at James like the way they are doing business right now with the Private Auctions (it’s innovative and its working) – has a relative degree of transparency about it (although you do need pre auction preparation and post auction pass-in skills if you are to give as good as you get – they are working for the vendor not you the buyer) and they are actually pleasant guys (not working for you but pleasant). Jeff Gole is a solid, ethical and experienced addition to the Abercromby family. Liking your work right now boys.

35 Stonnington Off Market - Over $6m

Off Market: 35 Stonnington Place Toorak also Jeff Gole and Tim Derham (they’ve had a good week these old blokes). Went through this off market home about a month ago. Pretty well the Toorak new build formula – big, thoughts of pretension, all the features but lacked a little soul when you lined it up against the calibre of 11 Bates St above. Was around the $6m mark the right money? I feel so and that represents a 25% rise on its last buy price during the GFC. Yes we may be in a market that may fall some more but we also may be in a market that has corrected and will begin to rise again. If you know for sure where we are in the cycle can you let us know please – we agents out here are waiting for that sign from God!

Tuesday 20th March: Another half dozen buys at the $3m+ level this week, with Bayside showing the most consistent activity

• 55 Sussex St Brighton (Jonathan Dixon) finally gets way after beginning its sale campaign with another agent in the stratosphere and selling at what now deemed to be market value.
• 27 Chelsea St (Danielle Martin of Barleys) organises the ink after a long but ultimately successful campaign on a solid block with a home that needed some work.
• 29 Seymour Avenue (Ian Jackson) forever the consummate professional brings two parties together, no not at the initial courageous $5m+ ask; but at the still pretty impressive mid $4 million mark. With land being bought in the early $2m’s a few years ago; holding costs and a pretty solid build ( lift, basement and other features) the buy, build and sell quick is not proving to be the absolute goldmine it once was – but nobody’s saying this was not an acceptable result – just tight.

Monday 19th March: Reprinted from The Weekly Review – “The market can be so fickle at the top end”

So you’ve heard there’s a bit of life at the Top of the Top End – that is the $3 million price bracket. Is it true? Well, yes and no.

After taking forever to get out of the blocks in 2012, the starting gun finally seems to have fired for the $3 million plus market. But the big question in this Olympic year is whether this is a false start or the beginning of some sustained running.

The thing is, that at this price level markets are very fickle and rise and fall quite dramatically within short periods of time. Its sub markets, such as land only or trophy homes or new builds, go up and down with even more elasticity, as demand for these is far more variable than for say a median priced inner suburban home.

Even so, the Top End can have some oomph even while operating a lower price level. It’s a bit like a footy team that is outside the top eight and then gets it act together to make a run at the eight, even if it may not be operating at the levels of the top four.

So where are we now in Mid March 2012 in the Bayside and Inner East Market above $3million?

The current market does have some oomph but it is nothing like the halcyon high turnover days of 2007 and 2010. While there is some good stock on offer, there is also plenty of rubbish. Also worth remembering is that we saw signs of life like this at around the same time in 2011, only to then see momentum die away after Easter. The market did come up for some air in September but then it sank again for the rest of 2011 (except for one or two notable exceptions).

Last year was a classic stalemate market – with many vendors barking orders down to their agents and many buyers looking up at the prize, offering a limp handshake and then walking away unsatisfied when it wasn’t taken up.

So far this year things seem a bit more lively. When pushed some buyers are putting in a second effort, helping to push some prices up. Sellers seem more prepared to meet the market rather than sticking stubbornly to their asking prices as they did last year. However, this does not add up to uniformly increasing prices. In fact a number of homes have transacted at lower prices than the previous peaks or when they last sold.

Let’s get specific

What has been selling?

• Hawthorn East, 2 Buley St, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), Sold after auction above $3,700,000, 2 bidders:
• Sandringham, 47-49 Victoria St (Julian Augustini) – Big parcel of land, on the market since late last year and sold in the mid $3 millions – a solid result.
• Camberwell, 19 Waterloo, (Rob Vickers-Willis, Greg Toogood) Bought under the hammer in front of a crowd of 80 people. Bidding opened at $2,700,000. On market at $3 million. 4 Bidders

What has been selling, but at lower than previous levels?

• Hawthorn, 33 Kooyongkoot Road (Tim Picken and Scott Patterson) – A huge block (2800sqm) in THE street on the crest of Scotch Hill. Sold for around the quote price of $8 million, lower than it sold for in the 2007 peak. This was a good sale just at lower levels.
• Malvern, 9 Woodmason St, (Jeremy Fox), Sold after auction, above $3,530,000, with 3 bidders. This was only bought a few years ago and we believe at a higher price. This was a good sale just at lower levels.
• Brighton, 47 Champion St (Ian Jackson) – Had been on the market (with another agent) for an eternity, considering its quality, with an asking price initially over $3.5m – Bought mid week for we believe just under $3m. This was a good sale just at lower levels.

What has not sold at auction?

• East Melbourne, 125 Gipps St – passed-in $3,850,000
• Williamstown, 27 The Strand – passed-in $3,000,000
• Toorak, 24 Heyington – passed-in $2,900,000

And there are plenty more of these out there, as you’ll notice if you do a search on homes over $2.5 million on any real estate portal. Last time we did that, up came 250 homes, which should tell you that despite a dozen or so buys/sells in the last week there are still many “wannabe” sellers out there who may not have got their pricing correct.

19 Waterloo Camberwell hits $3,045,000 in a Rob Vickers-Willis mid week auction

Thursday March 8th – Camberwell, 19 Waterloo, (Rob Vickers-Willis, Greg Toogood) Bought under the hammer in front of a crowd of 80 people. Bidding opened at $2,700,000. On market at $3,000,000. 4 Bidders (Architect Adam Auction Report)

James Home Rating 810/1000: 19 Waterloo is a very good property, and one that which should defy any  negative market conditions  as  it is a unique offering . We see this type of property only about six times a year and,  if vendor expectations are reasonable and the agent manages the campaign well, then a strong result generally comes about….. (see James Home Rating for full details)

Wednesday March 7th – Hawthorn, 33 Kooyongkoot Road (Tim Picken and Scott Patterson) – the big one on Scotch Hill – 2800sqm in THE street on the crest of the hill was bought today for we believe around the quote price of $8,000,000. This shows their is a market for sensibly priced Top End homes – meaning it had a lower quote than what it was last bought for in the 2007 peak. James Home Rating 752/1000 – see rating for full details.

64 Sutherland Road Armadale – (Jock Langley) – Inner city larger terrace home was bought in a private negotiation and 16 Monomeath Avenue Canterbury (Doug McLauchlan) which passed in on Saturday for $4,700,000 was cleaned up in post auction negotiations for an undisclosed amount – the quote was $5,000,000 plus.

Biggest Sale of 2012 so far 33 Kooyongkoot

Tuesday March 6th – Kay and Burton Trifecta

• Toorak, 46 Canberra Road, Michael Armstrong and Ross Savas – bought before auction around $4 million.
• Camberwell, 69 Broadway, Michael Armstrong and Ross Savas – was quoted between $6,000,000 and $7,000,000 and had been on the market since last year with another agent and we believe was sold in the last day or two for an undisclosed amount.
• Portsea, 3831 Point Nepean Road – Liz Jensen, Kay and Burton, $3,200,000 – bought before auction.

Hawthorn East, 2 Buley, Jason Scillio, Bought After, Over $3,700,000. 2 bidders

March 3rd: We had the first signs of life in the Inner East this weekend and it now seems the Bayside Top End may be dragging itself out of its Summer slumber. After last week’s Sandringham Top End action, we saw sales this week at:

• Brighton, 192 Church St (Ian Jackson) – On market for some time at over $4m – Bought mid week just shy of that
• Brighton, 47 Champion St (Ian Jackson) – On market (with another agent) for an eternity, considering its quality, with an asking initially over $3.5m – Bought mid week for just under $3m.

Biggest Auctions:

• Hawthorn East, 2 Buley St, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), after auction above $3,700,000, 2 bidders: Jason Scillio was our master of ceremonies here and he led the way strongly and professionally, politely refusing low increment bids and keeping the auction moving along smoothly and quickly…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Malvern, 9 Woodmason St, Jeremy Fox (RT Edgar), after auction, above $3,530,000, 3 bidders: Interested to see how this recently on the market and sold quality home goes at this indoor auction in front of crowd of around 40…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Toorak, 33 Evans Court, Gowan Stubbings, After Auction, around $3,400,000, 1 bidder: This beautifully presented property attracted a sizeable crowd on a gloomy day. An opening bid from the crowd of $3,260,000 was trumped by auctioneer Gowan Stubbings ..(see more in Auction Reports)
• Brighton, 3 Tennyson St, Leigh Hallamore (Buxton), under the hammer, $3,270,000, 3 bidders: Indoor auctions aren’t always that exciting, but this bucked the trend and was fast paced, entertaining and high energy all rolled in to one…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Brighton, 19 St Ninians Rd, Nick Johnstone (Nick Johnstone), after auction, $3,150,000, 1 bidder: The loud chatter of the crowd, with umbrellas in hand, who stood in a series of small huddles, made the weather seem much less dreary….(see more in Auction Reports)
• Fitzroy, 112 McKean St with Shayne Mooney of Nelson Alexander – just over $3million

Biggest Pass-Ins:

• Canterbury, 16 Monomeath Ave, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White), $4,700,000, no bidders: Outside, and under a substantial porch, a crowd of 80 gathered. Doug McLauchlan opened with a vendor bid of $4,500,000, adding another at $4,600,000…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Albert Park, 79 Beaconsfield Parade, Geoff Cayzer, $3,300,000
• Elwood, 8 Dickens St, Marshall Rushford (Hocking Stuart), $2,950,000,  2 bidders: This great old dame attracted a lot of curious bystanders – even (I was told) a former owner of this amazing old mansion, who had come along to see just how much it was worth in today’s market…..(see more in Auction Reports

However, there is still a lot of property at this price level on the market in Bayside and the Inner East that is simply sitting there doing nothing.

Overall the $3M+ market is seen by optimists as treading water and by realists as still edging backwards.

25 Campbell Road Balwyn - Peter Mitchell - Under the hammer - $3,000,000 - 5 bidders

Week 4 September 24th: Overall market interest is down this week, best evidenced by the fact we had 30% less Marketnews readers on the Monday of  this week than the past two month average (alternatively we may be just getting boring). While some new AFL coaches bobbed up, so have some interesting homes and it may be worth your while to revisit your contacts to see what new offerings are on the horizon. The internet portals are showing more homes in the Upper End than they have for a while and this is due to the agents planning an extended campaign to manage arrange the Grand Final while still trying to get the home done and dusted prior to the Melbourne Cup. So this week may have been more interesting than you thought but soon it will be back to “quiet and low new stock” as far as listings go until the second week of November post Melbourne Cup (hopefully).

Biggest Sale: 2 Albert St, Brighton, Leigh Hallamore (Buxton); after auction, in excess of $3,100,000, 3 bidders
With a relatively big crowd of 60 lining both sides of Albert St, there was a feeling in the air that this auction would be an exciting one. And, although he had to open on a vendor bid of $2,500,000 to kick-start proceedings, auctioneer Leigh Hallamore soon had a tightly contested battle between three parties on his hands. Bidding was strong and constant with bidder 3 eventually earning the right to negotiate after the property was passed in at $3,120,000. Bought after for an undisclosed amount. (Jen Milligan)

Biggest Pass In: 324 Beaconsfield Pde, St Kilda West, Andrew Stuart (Hocking Stuart); Passed in, $5,000,000, no bidders
Auction Andrew Stuart took great pleasure in explaining to the crowd how the under-ground car lift and turning circle worked – with a  practical demonstration. Demonstrations over, Andrew asked for a bid somewhere near the lower end of the quoted range. No one offered a bid and  a vendor bid of $5,000,000 was made – still no interest and half time was called. Half time was short and sweet. The property was reoffered again and surprise, surprise – no bids and the property was passed in at $5,000,000. It has been a long time since a property on Beaonsfield Parade has sold under the hammer. Sales are being transacted its just taking some time for vendor and buyer to reach that all important middle ground. (Guy Angwin)

Bidderbuzz Auction: 25 Campbell Rd, Balwyn, Antony Woodley (Marhsall White); under the hammer, $3,000,000, 5 bidders
Antony Woodley took the helm and fielded bids from 5 parties before the hammer fell at $3,000,000; after being on the market around $2,700,000. Around 70 people attended this auction. Full report in Market News (Adam Woledge)

Some clean ups from previous auctions and another few off markets and quiet results for the month.

• 34 Tormey St Balwyn North – James Tostevin – after auction for around $3,000,000
• Brighton 12 North Road – Jonathan Dixon – off market – over $5,000,000
• Toorak 67 Lansell Road – Andrew Harlock – after auction – over $3,500,000
• Toorak 1 Sargood – Lachlan and Paul Castran – Expressions of Interest – new home – undisclosed
• Balwyn 49 Metung St – John Bradbury – Expressions of Interest – new home – undisclosed
• Kew 26 Dean St – James and Hamish Tostevin – Expressions of Interest – new home – over $4,000,000

Not everything sells at the top - 111 Walsh South Yarra - Passed-In $3,250,000

Week 3 September 17th: Good quality Top End (around $3m and above) continues to change hands in strong numbers.

• 40 Balwyn Canterbury Peter Dixon over $3,000,000
• 37 Fairview Hawthorn Jeff Gole just under $3,000,000
• 3 Gardiner Hawthorn Hamish and James Tostevin – 5 bidders $3,850,000
• 41 Drummond Carlton James Keenan – $3,160,000
• There were $3m pass-ins at 111 Walsh South Yarra and 2-4 Sandown in Brighton.

During the week these $3M+ were bought

• 48 Hampden Road Armadale Andrew Baines over $6,500,000
• 45 Martin Brighton Ian Jackson just under $4,000,000
• 42 Matlock Canterbury Sam Wilkinson just over $3,000,000
• 198 The Esplanade Stewart Lopez – were quoting in excess of $6,000,000 – undisclosed

This September, to date, we are aware of 26+ sales in the is $3m and above price range – see our $3Million Plus report. If you look at our $3Million Plus market report for last year, September 2010, we got to 46 boughts by months end – http://marketnews.com.au/2010/09/two-9-million-homes-bought-on-monday/ and that was pretty much a solid activity time in the market. The Top End has some ooomph just now.

Michael Gibson and Justin Follett of Kay and Burton were both a bit chipper when I spoke to them this weekend and assured me that while the market may seem a little boring until the end of the school holidays, there are some good homes coming on after that. Hopefully post Melbourne Cup as well. Michael added that vendor moods have improved with the Top End good news of recent times. We hope he is right as that will mean more choice for buyers.

78 Blessington St Kilda - John Bongiorno - 6 bidders - Under the Hammer for $3,400,000

Week Two September 10: With the third week in a row of significant competition on A grade Top End homes there is little doubt we are now firmly in the midst of  an activity spike due to significant stock shortages of “ready to move in family period and new homes” in the $2m to $6m range.

On top of what we saw 2 weeks ago (11 sales at $55m with an average of 2 bidders each) and last week (7 from 8 bought over $3m) we saw solid results this weekend at:

1. Kew 20 Barry – Peter Batrouney 3 bidders, under the hammer, $3,850,000
2. St Kilda 78 Blessington – John Bongiorno $3,400,000, 6 bidders.
3. Armadale 46 Stuart – Andrew Hayne 2 bidders, after auction, over $3,300,000
4. Malvern East 58 Kerferd – John Bongiorno, 1 bidder after auction, $3,075,000
5. Malvern East – Little Como – 50 Finch – Gowan Stubbings – Expressions of Interest – It was a long battle but there is a sold sticker on the board.
6. Toorak 8 Ultimo – Justin Long – After Auction – 3 bidders – $2,900,000

Whilst the market is giving a big tick to those it likes (well priced A graders); it is marking very harshly those that is doesn’t and they are best summarized as B or C graders – homes that have issues. Some examples below

1. Toorak 32 Canberra – its old and tired – big land though.
2. Kew 2 -4 Heather – No backyard, no garage and no real interest.
3. Malvern East 4-6 Finch – 0 bidders – a big reno required and only a few metres from Dandenong Road

And then there is 22 Surrey Road Toorak – Auction was due today – converted to Expressions of Interest at the last minute. What does this mean?

Yes our focus in Marketnews seems to be all at the top of Top End ($3M+). Right now that is where the real action is. There has been an unequivocal mood change that does not seem to have been shared by the market at the lower dollar values.

Buyers are now having to answer some very real questions.

What is the real price? – Eg What is the highest other bidder prepared to pay, if indeed there is one? As a buyer am I trying to buy an A grader or a C grader – am I $300,000 below the other bidder or $300,000 above nobody!

What should my new strategy be in trying to purchase a Top End home? Extract from an MW St Kilda auction report “This market now plays to MW’s great little system and strength – shake the buyers up, show ‘em their competition, work out who is the strongest, then pass it into them and mentally torture them in post auction dealings by referring to those outside. It’s very hard to argue with it’s effectiveness, for if you don’t play the game, on a good home in this market, then there is a high chance somebody else will. This market is now spiking in the direction that will enhance MW’s reputation amongst sellers but …  um how do I say un-enhance their reputation amongst buyers.” This applies to not only Marshall White, but Jellis Craig, Kay and Burton, RT Edgar, Benmac and many of the Bayside agents. The main question for buyers is not it’s legitimacy (the sellers absolutely want this); its how do I best manage it and achieve my main goal within my buyer risk profile.

How will you manage a negotiation situation under extreme pressure – then is not the time to work out a plan. After the event is not a time to say I could have done it a lot better. The market has changed at this level, and may well change again, as a buyer have you moved with the times?

Strong Crowd at South Melbourne 210 Nelson Road - Anthony Grimwade - Under the hammer - 3 bidders

Week One September 3: My week this week. A good week with another $3M+ purchase for a satisfied client – which makes a good string of activity in the last month for our company. Overall a solid start to Spring after a less than exciting Winter (well I enjoyed Scotland with my son anyway). A magic moment for me was the home at 8 Torrington Place in Canterbury (Michael Armstrong of Kay and Burton). We will have a rating up in the next few days – but in a nutshell it’s a very brave new build home. Its Olde English for a start, which already loses most of you; but it is built to such a standard that when its attracts a suitor to its sweet offerings they will be entranced and will move to a mindset of I have to have this. The French Provincial being built next door will attract more; but this home will attract a greater intensity of interest. The price – well its asking $5million and for me the end result will be give or take a million and the sold sticker will be slapped on in an almost impossible to guess timeframe. That will depend on when the specific bee walks into this very specific honey pot. A lovely, well thought out, beautifully crafted home – go and check it out – its open mid week and weekends or google for our rating by weeks end. Please we are happy to be more specific on perhaps how best to buy it; if indeed it’s of interest to you.

My other magic moment was the 29 Rose St Armadale Auction: I really love watching Heather and Rae (Marshall White) at work – they are masters at their craft also – just like the developers of 8 Torrington. The two of them had positioned buyers on this home (last sold for around $2,500,000 in mid 2008) to get involved in the biggest shootout I have personally witnessed at an auction this year. And they lined up one of the best sheriffs to take all-comers on – Growling Jack (John Bongiorno) and boy did he fire up – to use the vernacular he stuck it right up ‘em and corralled 9 bidders into the final $3,030,000 result. It was very powerful to watch and while not reflective of the overall market right now, it did provide a pointer to the current lack of stock at the $3m+ level and a beacon for those that feel the only way forward is without hope. Sure we are all a bit nervous, but things are simply not as bad as The Age daily headlines make you think they are – well not right now in the $3m+ segment anyway.

Again the standout $ segment – granted on very low numbers ( 6 from 8 ) Yes there were some big pass-ins like 67 Lansell Road Toorak ($3,200,000 vb) but it has some challenges. Also passed-in 2 Iona Toorak ($5,000,000 vb) – postscript: was bought over the weekend.  However the ones that were bought this week showed, in the main, multiple interest.

• Toorak 2 Iona – Jeremy Fox – bought after auction $5,080,000
• Armadale 29 Rose  – see report below 9 bidders $3,030,000
• Malvern East 7 Bates – Heather Elder and Rae Tomlinson – 3 bidders – bought after for $3,500,000+
• Hawthorn 34 Coppin Grove Jack Bongiorno – 3 bidders – under the hammer – $4,110,000
• South Melbourne 210 Nelson – Anthony Grimwade – 3 bidders – under the hammer – $4,215,000
• Toorak 19 Sargood – Jeremy Fox – 2 bidders – bought after – $4,700,000.
• Balwyn 12 Creswick – William Chen – Bought Before – Undisclosed – around $3,000,000 . This was after a failed auction earlier in the year.
• Canterbury 52 Mont Albert – Karen Gornalle – Private Sale – over $3,800,000.
• Hawthorn East 5 Constance – John Chartres – After Auction – just under $3,000,000. 2 bidders.

What is happening this spring after the winter holidays? Hey Mark, c'mon mate! Cheer up -You did sell 27 Rathmines Road Hawthorn East under the hammer with 2 bidders.

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for $M+ was 48% on the 25 auctions we attended. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 1.3 bidders per auction.

This is our last Marketnews summary and auction reporting until Saturday July 30^th. We normally take a fortnight break at this time of the year due to the Winter school holidays, but we have extended it to three weeks due to minimal action in the $M+ Inner East and Bayside market.

Accordingly we have produced our bumper half-year insight on what has happened year to date and what we envisage may happen between now and Santa coming down the chimney.

What has happened on the markets so far this year?

February 19. With clearance rates at 63%, we were thinking this was looking like a healthy balanced market. The $1 million+ was actually looking hottish. But there was little activity on the $3 million+ market, and an increasing number of duck auctions  with no bidders. Overall stock quality wasn’t great and that has been the story all year really.

March 26. Clearance rates dropped to 58%, the first indication that we were moving into a buyer’s market – possibly until Easter and possibly until Spring we suggested. Well, we were right there. The other big issue that portended the future market was the lack of take-up of passed-in auctions from the previous two weekends – just 3 out of 26 had sold over the next couple of weeks.

May 21 saw a surprising lift in the market, with a clearance rate of 84% on the 37 auctions we attended. We certainly didn’t see it coming, but the big difference was the high quality of stock on offer. And buyers snapped it up. As we said though, one swallow doesn’t make a summer. And it didn’t.

June 4. This was the weekend we recognised that this down market was different to last year’s. Last year prices may have been down but there was still lots of activity with buyers and sellers agreeing either at auction or sometime after on a price that was possibly lower. This year the market has been characterised by numerous pass-ins and lots of stales (long term unsolds).

June 18. The wheels of supply really seemed to be grinding to a halt. Clearance rates were 38% but the biggest problems were lack of quality and sellers holding out for unrealistic prices – rather than lack of demand.

June 25. Last weekend saw an uptick in the clearance rate of 58% as an increasing number of sellers dropped their heads back down from the clouds. But, as we saw, it was back down to 48% as we head into the thick of winter.

Consistent Themes of the 2011 Market so far

1. This is a buyers’ market – and basically has been since April last year, 2010.
2. There has been a major contraction of turnover in the $M+ market this year to last year. The A+ sellers have withdrawn and so have the “we also need to buy” sellers. They have become nervous that if they sell now, there will be no good homes to buy.
3. Effectively the market has wound down to a much lower transaction level than last year, initially led by sellers asking prices higher than market, thus reducing turnover. Then as the year has gone on, prospective sellers with A+ homes decided the current market is not for them, reducing turnover further.
4. The underlying market demand is stronger than the stats headlines show. Almost every time we have good stock weekends our demand indicator Bidderman increased (see chart below). Look at the weekends 26 February, 9 April, 21 May and 25 June.
5. Stock overall has been a lot poorer in quality from the beginning of 2011 compared to last year.
6. The key characteristic of price this year has been the stubbornness of both buyers and sellers with regards to movement.
7. Prices continue to improve on selective high quality, well priced homes (yes, it’s true). But this is a very small segment in the market. For many, prices have flat-lined and for lower quality homes the market price has fallen. Overall the market is off by as much as 10% from the last peak in April 2010.
8. Above-market prices are rarely being achieved. So when sellers pass their property in then more often than not they are having to drop their price, wait a long time and go through pain to sell. And even then there is a high chance they won’t sell. In 2011 there is a real risk in sellers going for a big number and not getting any number at all.
9. Stales (long term unsolds) have been building all year. There are hundreds of homes out there that remain unsold and have the potential to negatively affect the market going forward.
10. Selling agents have correctly predicted stock shortages, price corrections and the market gap between good well priced stock and inferior overpriced stock. The market has in fact been predictable if you know how to read the signs.

Buyer Demand weaker, but still there when Quality to be had

 Average numbers of bidders per auction, as shown by our Bidderman indicator above, rarely went above 2 this year. But when stock was of high quality, the bidders were out in force. Clearance rates (below) further supported the argument that there is underlying demand when we have good stock and/or well priced weekends.

On most, but not all, good stock weekends where the sellers have let the market set the prices there has been solid activity. However these figures support the fact, very strongly, that we are in buyers market not a balanced one.

What will happen in Spring?

After a mediocre early Winter market, the question on the minds of buyers and sellers alike is will the market fire back up in Spring?

We asked some quality selling agents to give their predictions.

A number of agents are predicting that we’re likely to have stock shortages again this Spring. Why is that? According to Kay and Burton director Ross Savas, it’s because vendors are perceiving that the market is under pressure, so they are holding off placing their homes on the market till conditions improve.

Is this just false spin to get sellers to act? We don’t think so. Richard Winneke of Jellis Craig for instance reports that most agents are admitting to a 25% volume reduction of high end stock being transacted between this year and last. Balwyn and Kew are down around 20% in overall transactions (not just the high end).

In Bayside Jason Gill paints a similar picture of diminishing turnover but uses a different measurement: “In Brighton in July 2009, 2010 and 2011 we have seen stock on the market go from to 92 to 125 to 150 meaning older overpriced stock is simply not selling.”  What this means, he adds, “is that the stock that comes on in Spring will need to be of good quality and be priced correctly, rather than more of the same, if it is to excite the market.”

As during the GFC, the market has primarily ground to a halt on lack of action and lack of confidence. As with the GFC it will need a kick start of some note (eg Australian Dollar dropping bringing expats and overseas buyers back) to entice WOW and discretionary  sellers back into the market place, thus lifting turnover.

This is where patience presents a conundrum for buyers: if many of us pass on buying in early spring then the late spring surge may not happen at all. And come Christmas time we will still be in a buyers’ market but we won’t have bought. The question is then: how long are you prepared to wait?

For a full wrap of opinions on the Early and late Spring Markets read our Buyer Article section throughout July in Melbourne’s Premier $M+ Home Magazine – The Weekly Review.

So what does this all mean to you the buyer

Smart Buying RIGHT NOW involves:

1. New strategies: You need new bidding strategies at auction. Putting your hand up until you run out can work in a hot sellers’  market, but in a buyer’s market it just means that you are burning cash.
2. Realising that not all sales are at auction:  There are an increasing number of homes sold off-market, prior to auction, as expressions of interest and so-on. You need to have a strategy to keep ahead of what’s out there. And then you need to know how to wheel and deal in these methods of sale – not just to pay the right price but to actually get it, if you want it.
3. Knowing that in this kind of market, you as a buyer may need a new modus operandi. In a hot sellers’ market most buyers are reactive, while in a buyers’ market the best buyers are often proactive. Good homes are still selling well -so when a home is sought after, you may still have to compete as strongly as 2009.
4. Understanding what the Real Value is:  Most genuine buyers are getting the best service they have ever received from selling agents in terms of being told what is out there. How much for all these opportunities? Is 10% on the auction quote or 10% off the sale price the right start point? Well maybe, but there may also be daylight between you and the next buyer.
5. Recognising that Patience is Needed. Patience is the forgotten buyer skill. We are not talking about procrastination, but the ability to wait until you have found the right home that meets your family needs. Just because you can buy now and it’s ‘cheap’, doesn’t necessarily make it your family’s best fit.

IVANHOE EAST, 12 Ravenswood Ave: Going, going gone! Rod Watson (Jellis Craig), under the hammer, $1,059,000, 2 bidders

Biggest Sale: Balwyn, 30 Walsh St, Steven Abbott (Jellis Craig); Under the hammer, $1,992,500, 5 bidders
“An entertaining auction, in a fine setting. Auctioneer Steven Abbott looked for an opening bid but none were forthcoming. Mr Abbott then offered a vendor bid of $1,750,000 to get things underway. The auction did not take too long to get started and there was solid bidding between four parties. The property was on the market at the $1,915,000 mark, and bidding looked almost over at  $1,950,000, when a new bidder came into play. The property was eventually bought under the hammer for $1,992,500.   A good result for vendor and agent alike – this property had been around for some time and although the floor plan itself had some concerns, the Reid Estate positioning underpinned value and ultimately buyer interest here.” (Adam Woledge)

Biggest Pass In: Kew, 34 Macartney Ave, Walter Dodich (Marshall White); Passed in, $3,925,000, 1 bidder
“A sense of deja-vu here at Macartney Avenue: about 3 months ago, auctioneer Walter Dodich auctioned No.21 and today it was No.34′s turn. Both properties fine, modern new homes with all the bells and whistles, built by the same builder. In front of a good crowd of around 120 people, a vendor bid of $3,900,000 was placed and just when you thought this was going to be quick auction, a crowd bid of $3,925,000 was offered. There was no further bidding and the property was passed in at this figure.” (Adam Woledge)

Bidderbuzz Auction: 7 Heathfield Rd, Brighton East, Nick Renna (Hocking Stuart); Under the hammer, $1,625,000, 4 bidders
“Another great Nick Renna auction with fierce bidding, big crowds and a great sale price. A genuine bid kicked off proceedings at $1,000,000 and, while low, it was accepted by Mr Renna before he offered a vendor bid of $1,280,000 (which was closer to the quoted price). Two bidders entered the fray and the price quickly rose to $1,405,000 where it was declared on the market. Bidding continued strongly when, out of the blue a third, strong bidder entered into the competition. The price continued to rise and Mr Renna fielded bids from all three parties before bringing the hammer down at $1,625,000. A great, entertaining auction and a strong result for the Hocking Stuart team and vendor alike.” (Jen Milligan)

We only buy homes

KEW, 34 Macartney Ave: A big crowd of 120 people turned out to watch Walter Dodich (Marshall White) in action. Passed in, $3,925,000, 1 bidder

The big talk on the property market is auction clearance rates: the fact they are well below last year (true) and that they are perhaps even lower than what agents are claiming (maybe).

Last year auction clearance rates across Melbourne were regularly in the 70s percentage-wise. This year they are in the 50s – so it is fair to conclude that this year fewer buyers and sellers agree on price and therefore the market is regarded as weaker than 2010.

But while some journalists and publications are arguing that the ‘true’ clearance rate may in fact be lower because agents do not report every unsold auction, some agents  are arguing that the emphasis on a Melbourne-wide clearance rate is also misleading.

Jack Bongiorno from Marshall White, for instance, argues that while papers like The Age are reporting clearance rates in the 50s, his company has seen clearance rates in the 70s throughout May and June . Andrew James of Hocking Stuart Armadale agrees, saying his office is also seeing clearance rates in the 70s all year.

So The Age is saying one thing and agents another. Well there’s nothing new there.

Who is right and who is wrong – and does it really matter?

Well,  they are both right. And as for whether it really matters, the answer is yes – and no. Is that a splinter I can feel in my bottom from sitting on the fence? Well no, in fact this goes to the crux of what clearance rates can and cannot tell buyers.

According to Andrew McCann of BenMac, clearance rates measure across a very broad number of suburbs, price bands and demographics. “The reality is,” he says, “that some parts of the market will always perform better than others so it is not unrealistic to think that while some areas are soft, others are strong. A good case in point is that our firm sold 11 from 12 Auctions last weekend, while the market returned 56%.”

Scott Patterson of Kay and Burton supports this: “The clearance rate in The Age of 59% is a general rate for the whole of Melbourne and does not reflect what is going on in certain areas.”  Hawthorn for instance has had a clearance rate of 80% for the year so far, which seems a different picture from the outskirts of Melbourne.”

This makes it important for buyers to take Melbourne-wide clearance rates with a grain of salt.

Brad Pearce of Miles in Ivanhoe says that as a buyer you need to be area-specific on clearance rates to ensure you are in line with your market. “Buyers can become too confident with the lower Melbourne wide clearance rates and miss opportunities to buy in their area, where in fact properties are still selling well.”

Hawthorn and Kew, for instance, are currently shining with clearance rates in the 70s and 80s, according to Richard Winneke of Jellis Craig. But next door, Camberwell, Canterbury and Balwyn North have had clearance rates in the 50s so far this year, he points out.

Clearance Rates are wonderful things for analysts and journalists, says Steve Abbott of Jellis Craig, “but they are only part of the story for buyers and sellers.” Kay & Burton’s Michael Gibson reminds us too that clearance rates only represent a few hours within the selling week.

And according to BenMac’s Iain Carmichael: “Some weeks we have shockers and the next it’s a dream, so clearance rates are area specific, very cyclical and not always predictable.”

As a buyer, along with clearance rates, you also need to look at stats on areas, on specific agencies, on different types of homes, price ranges, stock level indicators, Bidderman (number of bidders per auction) and a variety of other measures.

Indeed, while $M+ Melbourne may be down on turnover this year, of the last 10 homes we as buyer agents went after in the last two weeks of May, all were sold quickly (and not all to us). So to our mind,  the late May 2011 “good home” index (describing the kinds of home we go after) had a clearance rate of 100%

The buyer message in terms of Melbourne-wide clearance rates is to understand what they represent and to not limit your research to the changing weekly auction headline number when determining your individual buying strategy.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus Magazine

CANTERBURY, 12 Parlington St: Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig) stands centre stage, in front of an audience of around 55. Bought under the hammer, $2,015,000, 2 bidders. (Watch our auction video)

Key Points:

• Bigger crowd numbers out there today.
• I attended 5 auctions  and there were  3 bidders at 4 of these. Partly prices have altered (for the better) and partly due to better stock on the market today. There will be even better offerings next weekend – May 28.
• Buyer advocates out in some force.
• Some bidding for themselves seemed very timid – one bidder was like a mouse and unsurprisingly missed out buying the property.
• James Tostevin, Marshall White Hawthorn “The market is fickle and hard to get a read on at the moment. My team involved in 6 today and 4 sold”
• Geoff Hall, Noel Jones Camberwell “Sold 4 from 4 today – multiple bidders at most of those – 46 Auburn Parade quoted at $1.05-$1.15m – no bids at auction but four parties approached after the auction and property sold at reserve price.  Market is looking a bit subdued this winter, good time to take a holiday”
• Balwyn 13 Campbell - James Tostevin – Bought for $3,200,000 – see our report
• Hawthorn 28 Fordholm – Desiree Wakim of Marshall White – A smidgen under $3,000,000.

“No way mate - this market is fighting back– taking no prisoners today (April 9th).” John Bongiorno. Malvern 54 Stanhope. Bought $3,170,000. 3 bidders.

Week Ending 30th April: Back from a week or two off, this market now, has a fairly clear run till Christmas, with a only brief breaks for a couple of holiday weekends.

Over the next four to six weeks we should see more choice and some reasonable activity (although not expected anywhere near the levels of last year), as the May market is a traditional agent preferred selling time. Why? Well there is a good stretch of time until Queens Birthday weekend to run an uninterrupted campaign. Stock Quality is the unknown.

Come July things will be relatively quiet as there is a general sellers’ feeling (rightly or wrongly) that good homes do not look their best at this time of the year and accordingly a number of high end selling agents take winter holidays in Europe and therefore do not program campaigns to be run in their absence.

In the post Easter week or so there have been ten or more high end sales including the representative  half dozen below

• 15 St Ninians in Brighton for between $8m and $9m – perhaps not a lot more than what is was sold for less than 2 years ago (need to look up sale time to be absolutely sure of date) – Justin Follett of Kay and Burton
• 255 New Brighton for between $5.5m and $6m – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin of Buxton
• 50 Hotham St East Melbourne which had been on the market for at least 6 months for $7million – Paul Richards of Hocking Stuart – on the market for a fair bit of last year and also a failed auction. Nonetheless a reasonable price – not everything the sellers wanted – but more than had been offered at times in the past by buyers. A good result for both parties.
• 150 Clarendon East Melbourne – the Salta apartments saw Anton Wongtrakun deliver another big sale at $5,200,000 for Unit No 4
• Out to the paddocks of Lower Plenty with a Marketnews favourite Rocco Montanaro of Morrison Kleemand who achieved close to $3m on an Expressions of Interest Campaign for a good home on 7 acres at 75 Cleveland.
• And we round up our selection of high end Easter Sales with a $6M+ sale at Mount Eliza 15 Freemans Road – Michelle Skoglund of Aqua

In summary over Easter the market at this level has not been dead, but definitely subdued – there is increasingly a dampening mood in terms of both buyer and seller confidence. Time will tell if this is a short or longer term phenomenon. Price will play a important part going forward as we seemingly move into more uncertain market conditions – i.e. ones that are not as clear as they have been in the past 2 years since we awoke from the GFC. Overall the market now and in fact all of 2011 has not been strong at the $3m+ level – but there are still enough transactions (especially in Bayside) of sufficient value to avoid holding a wake just yet.

With winter approaching and a fair amount of stock available we think it is a buyers’ market and the future is best described as – “uncertain times”.

Finishing on a positive note our James Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (rentals are improving) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Finishing on a positive note our Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (improving rentals as well) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Week Ending 16th April:The $3m action this week was away from auctions.

The drought in the Balwyn Formula – big price, small land, new home – was broken again with Maurice Di Marzio getting 59 Hosken Street, Balwyn North away in the high $3 millions. That’s the third in a week on the back of the two biggies reported last weekend.

Canterbury, 11 Chaucer Close, with Boroondara doyen Peter Mitchell of Marshall White, got the same sort of high $3 millions price.

Hawthorn, Harcourt St, was a hot place to be this week with Nick Ptak getting 79a away for just under $3.4 million (we think) and one of the results of recent times. Peter Vigano of Jellis Craig  got $3.625 million for 42 (we did not see that price coming)

Speaking of good results, Marcus Chiminello got a price in the high $3 millions for 2/264 Walsh St, South Yarra. It’s not our job to talk agents up but in a slow apartment market Marcus has got a number of solid results.

St Kilda West, 10 Loch St, with John Holdsworth sold for $3,650,000.

Andrew McMillan from Benmac got 367 Beaconsfield St, Kilda West away in the $4m to $5m range after a very lengthy campaign (probably due to previous asking prices).

At Auction today 68 Hopetoun Rd,  Toorak with Jellis Craig’s Steve Abbott, sold afterwards for $3.05 million. That was up a few hundred thousand dollars on the last time it sold around a year ago.

Week Ending 9th April: The strongest week this year for the $3m+ Top End market:

South Yarra 43 Marne St: Nicole Gleeson of Kay and Burton: Well over the $12,000,000 quote range making Domain Precinct land values at $8,000 per sqm for the bigger blocks.

Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett also of Kay and Burton: North of $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home that needs some reworking and a tennis court.

While still in Hawthorn Mr Nice Guy and Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (Modern in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both a little down on ambitious asks but nonetheless solid prices for what they were.

But wait there’s more and was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula- new build, small block, overpriced. Well on a technicality were are still credible as it’s neighbouring Kew; but with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million’ish, the death of this market maybe a little exaggerated. However please it is only two sales, but they were biggies.

The news doesn’t stop for sellers there with period home successes at 50 Wattle Valley Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) selling under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000; 54 Stanhope Malvern with Rae Tomlinson also under the hammer for $3,170,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Bayside has recorded a few strong sales as well with 29 Bay Street Brighton (Bert Stewart of Buxton) selling post auction over $3,550,000 and the final result put north facing (no view) Golden Mile land over $3,200 per sq metre. That is a steady as she goes price similar to last year Golden mile (no view) buys. And another $3m+ sale with a strange twist (all non bidders asked to leave) at 40 Drake Brighton (Ian Jackson).

While on land sales 1073 Malvern Road Toorak (Justin Long) passed in at $3,225,000 and a reserve was offered – not taken up – two new bidders appeared and a second auction took place resulting in a sale well over the pass in figure.

Why all this activity? Pass-ins are still languishing in large numbers without much interest. However its all about quality and new stock and buyer confidence. All three things happened this week -

1. buyers felt better in themselves (confidence);
2. buyers felt this week had some real quality offerings (quality)
3. and buyers couldn’t see a lot of stock coming one (limited new stock)

Post Easter is no Buyer lay down misere after today’s results.

Like many auctions this weekend, a lot of standing around, not doing much. MALVERN EAST, 9 Lewes Drive: Passed-in at $2,500,000 with two bidders. Anthony Grimwade (RT Edgar)

At 6pm on Saturday the James Clearance rate for $M+ was 57% on the 30 auctions we attended. That was well down on last week’s cameo of excitement, but understandable giving the quality change between this week and last week at the Top End.

Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 1.5 bidders per auction. However the quality of the offerings was one of the lowest this year.

While there were a few volcanoes (4 or more bidders), what was more interesting was that 1 in 3 homes were ducks meaning they didn’t get a bid a all. We think that was a confirmation of the market reaction to this weekend’s lack of Top End quality.

In fact, only 1 in 5 of $M+ homes monitored this weekend sold under the hammer.  The rest sold before or soon after – or didn’t sell at all. That’s an Under the Hammer Clearance Rate of 20%.

What that means is that in this current market buyers need a lot more than just a ‘hand up in the air and hope’ strategy to buy homes well.

Market Summary:

There were plenty of auctions at the lower levels, e.g. at or around a million dollars, but many lacked any WOW factor.

A number of the key selling agents were off this weekend on holidays and, as with many buyers, they seem to have turned their attention to pursuits other than buying and selling.

It was hard to find a property over $2 million up for auction. The only $3 million plus auction we saw in Toorak was at 68 Hopetoun Road with Steve Abbott of Jellis Craig – an art deco that seems to get sold every 12 months (see report below).

The REIV median prices came out this week and rightly confirmed what the market has been saying for some time: Prices are weaker.

This year to date has been a positive one for buyers with reduced competition, more choice and lower prices. On the flip side the buying opportunities are only such if you take them (a Steve Abbott auction line).

Next week, there are almost no auctions and not too much the week after.

Post Easter, as we said last week, may or may not be a different story. But our feeling is that quality choice will dry up and the big issue will become finding a rose amongst the thorns, the pass-ins and the stales. If those roses are hard to find then prices for them will firm as new quality drops with discretionary vendors adopting a wait and see strategy.

What Sold Well – Volcanoes with 4 or more bidders

• Albert Park, 62 Barrett St – Peter Simmons – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,575,000
• Hawthorn, 23 Falmouth St – Hamish Tostevin – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,330,000
• Hawthorn, 11 College St – Richard Earle – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,409,000
• Kew, 36 Maitland Ave – David Oster – Land site – $1,345,000
• Toorak, 80 Grange Rd – Rodney Morley – Nicely renovated Period Town Residence – $1,500,000

$3M+ market: Overall, the high end at $3 million+ appears as weak as it has been for 12 months. Although  a shortage of new quality stock post Easter has put some zing back into the market as some buyers are forced to act.  Growing kids, divorce, lifestyle, whatever cannot wait for everyone indefinitely. Go to our $3m+ report to see most of the last weeks’ 10+ sales.

Michael Armstrong, Kay & Burton, South Yarra: “I think we can expect a fairly normal market post Easter.  Market conditions are settled and stock levels looking forward to May/June are lighter than what we’ve experienced in the past couple of months.  Vendors have had to adjust their expectations in recent times and buyers with long term views have realised that the past few weeks have presented them with good opportunities. The better quality offerings will continue to attract competition and alternatively  buyers will continue to deal harshly with those vendors (and agents) who price properties incorrectly.”

ST KILDA, 2 Marine Pde: On a bit of a rollercoaster day, it was apt to have the Scenic Railway at Luna Park as the backdrop of this Claudio Perruzza (Biggin Scott) auction. Passed in, $1,850,000, no bidders

Biggest Sale we covered: 68 Hopetoun Rd, Toorak, Steve Abbott (Jellis Craig); after auction, $3,050,000, 3 bidders
“This art deco property with Heritage One (HO1) overlay was looking for a committed buyer to make it a home. A vendor bid of $2,800,000 got the proceedings underway and the first bidder entered the race with a bid of $2,850,000. A second vendor bid of $2,900,000 signalled that the bidding was still some way off from the desired sale price. Auctioneer Steven Abbott wouldn’t entertain an increment of $5,000, demanding at least $10,000 to stay in the race. Despite keen bidding, this property was passed in at $3,020,000 but this was just the start of the negotiations. Bought after for $3,050,000.” (Debbie McTaggart)

Biggest Pass In we covered: 12 Dudley Pde, Canterbury, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White); passed in $2,000,000, no bidders
“Doug McLauchlan took centre stage in the very big, leafy backyard of this great property and looked ready for action. Assisted by his Marshall White team, Mr McLauchlan explained that the circa 1923 home had been in the same family for a massive 72 years. But even the sentimentalists amongst us in the crowd weren’t ready to put their hands in the air and bid. Mr McLauchlan opened and closed on a vendor bid of $2,000,000.” (Jen Milligan)

Auction Video: Architect Adam heads to sunny Hawthorn this week to witness a ripper auction at 23 Falmouth St, a Marshall White property with auctioneer Hamish Tostevin.  Click on the live action.

Big Issue and Weekend Reflections: Coming back after the Easter holidays.

Two Weeks Off: Marketnews will be on holiday for two weeks with our next Marketnews on the 7th of May. A number of agents are talking up the 21st and 28th of May as possible Super Saturdays (as buyers let’s hope so). For James Buyer Advocates it will be business as usual.

We Only Buy Homes and have a safe Easter break:

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KEW, 19 Stirling St: The crowd was there but the bidders weren't. Richard Earle (Jellis Craig), passed in $1,700,000, no bidders

To be frank I wasn’t that excited about running around to auctions today (which is very unusual for me). We videoed the 23 Falmouth St, Hawthorn auction with one of my favourite agents Hamish Tostevin and 4 bidders. But after that I cleaned up my paperwork and looked forward to a week off.

Although this has been the best buyers’ market for over two years with choice and falling prices, one thing that as buyers we should consider over the Easter break is the amount of stock that was bought at auction and privately in May and June of last year. Early winter last year there was a concerted agent mopping up campaign of stales and pass-ins. I remember looking at some stats on actual sales at that time and thinking “impressive, more than I thought”. If that happens this year and new stock tightens then, as with last year, late winter and early spring will not be as good a time to buy as you think. Anyway, despite many agents implying they are 24/7, I’m not. I’m away for a week and then I’ll be back on board full bore immediately after Easter. Have a good break with your family. Life’s short. Take care, Adam.

Week Ending 16th April:The $3m action this week was away from auctions.

The drought in the Balwyn Formula – big price, small land, new home – was broken again with Maurice Di Marzio getting 59 Hosken Street, Balwyn North away in the high $3 millions. That’s the third in a week on the back of the two biggies reported last weekend.

Canterbury, 11 Chaucer Close, with Boroondara doyen – Peter Mitchell of Marshall White got the same sort of high $3 millions price.

Hawthorn, Harcourt St, was a hot place to be this week with Nick Ptak getting 79a away for just under $3.4 million (we think) and one of the results of recent times. Peter Vigano of Jellis Craig  got $3.625 million for 42 (we did not see that price coming)

Richard Winneke, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn: “We expect a busy May. Buyers will notice a lot more property coming onto the market. In the meantime, over the next two  weeks, there will be very little to choose from except passed in properties from March and February. “

“Oh Yeah Sure Buddy - you are joking, aren't you?” Sold for an undisclosed amount, $500,000 over reserve. 4 bidders. Ivanhoe East 32 Warncliffe. David Oster.

At 6pm on Saturday the James Clearance rate for $M+ was 71% on the 34 auctions we attended. WOW – 71%, a big change from last month.

Bidderman, our demand indicator of bidders per auction, was at 1.8. So on our biggest $M+ auction weekend so far this year, when you would expect buyers to thin out and Bidderman to drop, it actually went up on the trend of the last few weeks.

It may be just one day but it was strong out there this weekend. For the first time since late February our advocates reported feeling feeling genuine price pressures whilst bidding.

Market Summary: The big question is whether this is a statistical blip or whether we are a seeing the trend return towards a balanced market. If so, why?

1. Buyers feel a little better than they did last month and confidence came back into the market as a result. Our enquiry rates are certainly up.
2. The overall quality of homes on offer was up on previous weeks and they were plentiful in number. We saw lots of 700+ James Home Rating (quality) homes go to auction this weekend.
3. Last week as buyers looked into the future they saw that the cupboard of  post Easter offerings was bare – and so they adjusted their game plan accordingly.

Whether this is a blip or a trend change will largely be determined by what discretionary sellers do in May. If they are encouraged by this weekend’s results to put their properties onto the market, then prices may stay softer than last year. If those sellers stay out and demand continues as is, then the overhang of stales will begin to be mopped up and the good buying conditions of the last months (price and choice) will dissipate.

This weekend, again, we saw the overall power of the Melbourne market and the power of demand and supply. There is an underlying strength in Melbourne homebuying (based in immigration and lack of homes), that has slackened off in recent times as buyers become more circumspect with concerns about overseas events, jobs, and who knows what exactly. As well there has been plenty of choice. BUT as soon as there is a hint of a quality stock shortage the market responds, particularly with regards to well-located quality family homes, on land and of a period flavour. And it responds strongly.

More insights

• It wasn’t just the consistent $1m to $1.5m range holding up its end in isolation, this was also the strongest single week this year for $3m+ buys.
• It was the second strongest clearance rate of the year, despite an almost Super Saturday (140 $M+ Auctions – Inner East and Bayside)
• We saw consistent bidding across the board, with over 75% of monitored auctions having at least one bidder.
• The big question going forward after our Easter market break is whether nervous sellers will re-enter the market on one week’s good showing.
• Prices are generally down on this time last year (there are exceptions), so good homes are attractive right now. And while new choice may become limited,  some existing choice (overhang) still remains.
• Top End rentals are getting considerably more rent than expected as supply in relation to demand is tightening. This observation from two agents needs more examination at a later date. We’re interested in how widespread this may be, why it is happening and what effects it may have on the buying market. (Are borderline investors perhaps re-entering the Top End?).

Wild and Wooly - the weather that is, not Rob Vickers-Willis. Toorak 3 Denham. Passed In $2,010,000. 2 bidders.

The $3m+ Market’s strongest 2011 week so far (some examples):

South Yarra 43 Marne St: Nicole Gleeson of Kay and Burton: Bought well over the $12,000,000 quote range, putting Domain Precinct land values at $8,000 per sqm for the bigger blocks.

Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett also of Kay and Burton: Over $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home with tennis court that needs some floor plan reworking.

While still in Hawthorn, Mr Nice Guy and the Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (modern home in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period home in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both prices were a little down on ambitious asks but they were nonetheless solid prices for what they were.

Kew – Was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula – i.e. new build, small block and overpriced? Well technically we are still credible, because these were in neighbouring Kew: with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million-ish, the death of this market may be a little exaggerated. It was only two sales, but they were biggies.

Malvern and Canterbury -  50 Wattle Valley, Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) sold under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000; 54 Stanhope Malvern with Rae Tomlinson also under the hammer for $3,170,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Bayside has recorded a few $3M+ sales as well, with 29 Bay Street, Brighton (Bert Stewart of Buxton) selling post auction over $3,550,000. The final result put north-facing Golden Mile land (no view) at more than $3,200 per sq metre. That is a “steady as she goes price” similar to last year’s Golden mile (no view) buys. Another $3m+ sale with a strange twist (all non bidders asked to leave auction) was at 40 Drake Brighton (Ian Jackson of Kay and Burton).

Toorak While on land sales, 1073 Malvern Road (Justin Long) passed in at $3,225,000 and a reserve was offered which was not taken up by the pass-in bidder. Two new bidders appeared and a second auction took place resulting in a sale well over the pass-in figure.

For full details each week of what is happening in the Top End $M+ market see our regular $3-Million-Plus Market Reports.

Round the Grounds – Price this year v last year and a word on Post Easter stock levels.

Malvern John Bongiorno, Marshall White: “Price is a little softer on certain homes but on high quality homes they are still rocking, granted buyers are more discerning. Stock levels are not as strong as last year. Rentals at the top end are exploding in the middle and top end market. Big news is rents have increased, possibly making investments more attractive at the higher end. There is such a shortage of homes to rent.”

Caulfield Rodney Morley, Woodards: “I think the negativity means less stock is coming on in May and Winter. Everybody wants records that are not coming at the moment. The market is definitely softer than this time last year in price. Buyers (then) were buying anything. Right now, buyers do not feel that urgency. No question that the market is softer.”

Brighton Bert Stewart, Buxton: “I think the market is around 10% down on some top end homes. Stock levels and therefore buyer choice after Easter are not looking good.”

Camberwell Geoff Hall, Noel Jones: ”Prices are down around 10% on this time last year, with some exceptions for quality homes, and stock post Easter is just not coming on like it did last year.”

Hawthorn Richard Winneke, Jellis Craig: “Big drop in new buyer enquiry this week. Probably due to the holiday factor but it was a noticeable drop. Rentals are definitely getting more than I expected price-wise and this may stimulate investment into Top End homes. East of Burke Road (Camberwell and Canterbury) has not performed as well as Hawthorn and Kew this year to date. I think prices are still relatively solid around that early million dollar mark but softer higher up.”

Carlton Tom Roberts, Nelson Alexander:  ”Stock levels Post Easter are tightening with only the sellers that need to sell going to market. Good homes still going exceptionally well but those results are in amongst the not so good going not quiet so well as last year. Prices are down a smidgen.”

Playing for Keeps here. Big 150 plus crowd. 29 McKinnon, Carlton. 3 bidders. Bought for a whopping $1,417,000 (462 sqm). We thought it was justified, but it was still big. Nick Renna, Peter Sinclair and Melissa Ryan of Hocking Stuart

Biggest Sale we covered: 21 Macartney Ave, Kew; Walter Dodich (Marshall White): After auction, undisclosed around $4,000,000
“Being in the coveted Sackville area this auction attracted a large crowd of about 100. The crowd were well spread out and even blocked the road in front of the property as they heard auctioneer Walter Dodich open proceedings. The auction began in Mr Dodich’s own words with a ‘traditional’ vendor bid at $3,700,000 as no one was willing to start things off. However this was the trigger that allowed two bidders to start the battle off for the property. Initially there were meant to be three bidders however the third bidder couldn’t get his bid in as he always cut off by the other two. When he finally got one in there was applause from the crowd and a cry of joy from the bidder. As the auction went on, the climax built and the crowd held their breath as the price rose and rose yet there was still no indication from Mr Dodich about whether the property was on the market or not. At $4,000,000 Mr Dodich passed the property in and after lengthy negotiations the property was bought after for an undisclosed amount.” (Josh Bong)

Biggest Pass in we covered: 72 Kerferd St, Malvern East, John Bongiorno (Marshall White); Passed in, $2,800,000, no bidders
“With 300 people having viewed this property and 100 or so crowded into the garden of this Gascoigne Estate home, auctioneer John Bongiorno was confident of a sale. But it was not to be with a vendor bid of $2,800,000 the only one of the day and the property passed in. However, with one interested party heading inside, it may not be long before this stunning property is sporting a ‘sold’ sign.” (Debbie McTaggart)

The Big Issue: Architect Adam and Klarity Kris discuss whether they believe buying conditions will be as good post-Easter as they are now.

Auction Video: This week Jen Milligan, our Market News Co-ordinator, fills in for our advocates who were busy with other auction commitments. 15 Epping St, Malvern East, a BenMac auction with Iain Carmichael. Click on the live action auction video.

Buyer Masterclass: Conditions are great for homebuyers – so where are they?

We Only Buy Homes

New Subscriber System: Over the next few weeks we will  introduce a free subscription model giving you greater access to our council-specific wraps, which include auction results, news, opinion and analysis on a micro level. This subscription model helps us improve your browsing experience as clients or general subscribers by delivering more relevant content to you on the site and in your email newsletter. Sign up by clicking Subscribe at the top right of the website. If you experience any problems as we are testing and implementing this new improved system please let us know at enquiry@james.net.au

CAMBERWELL, 8 Stanhope Grove: James Tostevin (Marshall White) is a picture of concentration. Bought under the hammer, $2,400,000, two bidders

We mainly focus on the better quality homes, however 10 from 10 was still a surprise. This stat varies dramatically from our overall monitored auctions stat of just over 50% – similar to last week.

It was a Super Saturday in Boroondara with over 50 auctions at $M+ and over 30 sales reported as being above a million dollars.

So what was bought and what wasn’t

Bought

• Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett Kay and Burton: North of $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home that needs some reworking and a tennis court – Expressions of Interest Campaign.
• While still in Hawthorn Mr Nice Guy and Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (Modern in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both a little down on ambitious asks but nonetheless solid prices for what they were. Both Private Sales.
• But wait there’s more and was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula- new build, small block, overpriced. Well on a technicality were are still credible as it’s neighbouring Kew; but with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million’ish, the death of this market maybe a little exaggerated. However please it is only two sales, but they were biggies. Both at auction.
• The news doesn’t stop for sellers there with period home successes at 50 Wattle Valley Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) selling under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Passed-In – the difficult ones

• 16 Glenroy Hawthorn Passed in $3,000,000 on a vendor bid. – Difficult for see how to reno easily?
• 16 Burton Hawthorn Passed in $3,150,000 on a vendor bid. – Price versus land content?
• 256 Riversdale Hawthorn $2,020,000 – Difficult position?
• 44 Harcourt Hawthorn East $2,000,000 – Family home but no real backyard?
• Plenty of homes passed in just below a million in that $900,000 range – $million is still a real mental barrier for many buyers?

Agent Q & A : How does current pricing compare with the same time last year?

Tim Heavyside, Fletchers, Canterbury: “Property prices were slightly higher back then than now.”

CANTERBURY, 35 Wattle Valley Rd: A big crowd of 80 turned out to watch James Tostevin in action. Unfortunately, there wasn't much action to watch. Passed in $2,300,000, no bidders

Key Points:

• Is the dream run over for agents in Boroondara or is Post Easter going to be a very different story? Just like the market itself, there has been tremendous change within the business of real estate in Boroondara in recent times. Both the May and Winter markets could be very different to past years – it will all be determined by stock levels – the size of the overhang, how it’s mopped up and whether or not we will see nervous vendors putting their quality stock up for sale post Easter. Not writing the old girl for any length of time, not by any stretch, she has got up off the floor quickly before. For buyers, now may simply be a window and not a trend.
• Canterbury 13 Rubens: Jeremy Desmier Fletchers and Tom Ryan, Sold before Auction: Over $3,000,000.
• Even if its got something to offer, if the market says it’s a bit different and not perfect then it’s not selling at auction;  evidenced by 35 Wattle Valley Road Canterbury and 6 Wharton St Surrey Hills.
• Price check 2 Kaarumba Balwyn (Michael Nolan of Noel Jones) – just out past Narrak Road, a big but difficult, irregular block of 1200+ sqm sold for just over $1100 psqm.

Chloe Quinn, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn: “We are experiencing mixed auction results at the moment. Some auctions are performing as expected and we are seeing competitive bidding, others are passing in and either selling on the day or in the week post auction. Houses that are appealing and are in sort after locations are always going to experience competitive bidding (regardless of the market conditions). There are some good opportunities for buyers looking either side of one million dollars, as there are a number of properties for sale. Due to this, price guides and results are more predictable.”

Glen Coutinho, Hocking Stuart, Camberwell/Hawthorn: “I do not believe it’s a buyers market, I think that the market is evenly balanced. The best advice I can advise is that real estate is a long term investment and there is no doubt that property prices will be higher in the next 18 months, then they are now. So they are better off too buy their property and get settled; as there are no signs of a falling market coming.”

New Subscriber System: Over the next few weeks we will  introduce a free subscription model giving you greater access to our council-specific wraps, which include auction results, news, opinion and analysis on a micro level. This subscription model helps us improve your browsing experience as clients or general subscribers by delivering more relevant content to you on the site and in your email newsletter. Sign up by clicking Subscribe at the top right of the website. If you experience any problems as we are testing and implementing this new improved system please let us know at enquiry@james.net.au

See it's not all bad news! ST KILDA, 30 Crimea St: A happy couple embracing. John Carter (Hocking Stuart), under the hammer $1,450,000. 4 bidders.

At 6pm on Saturday the James Clearance Rate for the 35 $M+ auctions we covered was an almost icy 51%. Bidderman, our demand indicator showing average numbers of bidders per auction, remained at a market-cooling 1.4 bidders per auction. We seem now to be firmly in the grip of a Winter chill.

Market Summary:

March 2011 has seen a $M+ auction clearance rate averaging in the high 50s.

As the market continues in its cooler mode, an overhang of unsold homes continues to build. Two-thirds of homes passed-in are still for sale. Add to this the Expressions of Interest campaigns ending in no result and there seems little doubt we are in a softer, cooler, lower market than a month ago – especially at the high end.

Last week we produced a special report on the fate of $M+ properties that had passed in at auction this year and found that only 3 of the 26 $M+ pass-ins we monitored had since been bought a fortnight later. Seven days on from that report only a further two of those pass-ins have been reported as bought. Some of these properties went to auction 3 weeks ago. Of the 13 properties that we monitored last week as having passed-in, four have since been bought.

It seems it’s a tough gig right now for sellers whose property passes in at a price over the market.

Buyers – this is opportunity! You may think it will get worse (or better depending on your point of view). But what is likely is that after Easter sellers simply won’t put their homes on the market, creating a shortage of stock choice resulting in firming prices. We are not economists but the bad news does not seem to be anything other than transient to us right now – especially when the media are carrying credible news stories on housing shortages (supply) and increasing internal and external immigration (demand)

The $1 million to $1.5 million market is different to the rest and is still rocking along. The best description we feel is not ‘cool’, but ‘balanced’ –  leaning in fact slightly to ‘warm’ for this dollar segment. This is the ‘hottest’ market at present and still has a reasonable depth of bidders. Prices are not shrinking as much in this price range.

The one thing that differs in this market segment from this time last year is the number of volcanoes (runaway 4+ bidder auctions). Today we saw 3 volcanoes from 19 auctions on properties between $1m and $2m we covered. This time last year (March 27^th 2010) there were  9 volcanoes from 14 such auctions. That is a volcano rate of 16% today compared with 64% this time last year in that $1m to $2m range. So, even the early $1m+ market has slowed.

Back to to the Overhang or Hangover:  If you accept we are in a Buyers’ market until Easter, then the question for those who haven’t gone into mental lockdown is:

What is happening to price?

That depends on the quality of homes you are looking at. If you just took your information from the results on sales of Red Hot Homes, you could interpret we are in an improving market. These top quality homes seem to be going even better than last year, as we show in the diagram below. (Although it is important to remember that these homes are understandably the focus of the selling agents – given they are marketers).

It is possible to read positive agent news, see some red hot results and look at selected median price changes and see a different story to what is happening to a lot of the market since the Labour Day weekend.

But for many homes where the vendors have circled $3 million as their hoped for price tag, the end result has been below rather than above $3 million.

In a slowing market with dropping prices as well as a fall in turnover (actual deals done), when the median price falls it does so in smaller doses than does the TOP of the TOP END market, because the TOP END tends to fall to the middle while the bulk of the lower end sales tend to hold up the median price. The reverse is not true when a rising price market comes with big turnover increases, because this tends to exaggerate the increases. This is not to say median prices are not useful – they are.

We are not saying the market is bad – we are saying it is good, in fact very good. You as buyers have opportunities to buy well – either by buying at a lower price or by securing a better home than you could have afforded this time last year, maybe even this time six weeks ago.

To buy better you need to be able to

1. Act not freeze.
2. Calculate correct market price ranges in this new market, i.e. when researching past prices it shouldn’t be an automatic plus 15% on last year.
3. Remain flexible if your targeted home is high quality. The market may view it as a red hot and these are still going well and selling occasionally for better prices than a year ago.
4. Adopt strategies to lower the price, or if that is too difficult for you then look for the buys that present opportunities to sell at a lower price without you asking. An alternative is to get a professional who can assist you in price strategies or take advantage of the opportunity to buy a better quality home than you thought possible.

Lower prices and choice can’t be a bad thing for buyers – even if only temporary.

If now is good news for buyers, how will the post Easter market be?

The important issue is stock supply, and to give us an idea of how this is going here are some thoughts  gleaned from our ‘Round the Grounds agent opinion about upcoming stock levels:

• There is not a lot of new stock on offer in Port Phillip due to Grand Prix interruptions. With Easter approaching it is lean times for new offerings.

• Stock in Stonnington is now starting to dry up as Easter interrupts the market. With the vibe dropping since Labour Day we may well see limited stock in the discretionary upper end market coming on post Easter.  19 Huntingfield Toorak (Justin Long) was a classic example of a limited offering that captured the market’s attention. Even allowing for building value at $2,000,000 (and that is generous) that meant that land value with a north orientation was  around $5,000 per sq metre – not exactly a giveaway price, and certainly higher than 2010.

• Peter Kennett, Hocking Stuart, Brighton, believes the window of opportunities and fair choice in Bayside won’t last long. “Currently the best opportunities for buyers are at the top end.  There are great negotiation opportunities at the top end. (But) school holidays and winter coming means less stock available for buyers… “

• In Boroondara there has been tremendous change within the business of real estate. The May and Winter markets will all be determined by stock levels – the size of the overhang, how it’s mopped up and whether or not we will see nervous vendors putting their quality stock up for sale post Easter. For buyers, now may simply be a window and not a trend.

Runaway of the Year to date:
208 Drummond Street Carlton: James Keenan of Nelson Alexander: Terrace home, quality and around 255sqm.  This was quoted and on the market at around $1.5million and two bidders fought it out until, wait for it, around $2.5 million (undisclosed final price). WOW!

$3M+ Market:
STOP PRESS: March, while not huge in numbers, did finish the month with three solid mid-week $3M+ buys – including four bidders at $7 million or better at two auctions.

• Toorak Ottawa Avenue : Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar – quiet sale off market in the mid $8 millions
• Toorak 19 Huntingfield: Justin Long and Peter Bennison of Marshall White – mid-week auction, 3 bidders and on the market at $6,700,000. Bought under the hammer for $7,060,000.
• Canterbury 13 Rubens: Jeremy Desmier Fletchers and Tom Ryan, Sold before Auction: Over $3,000,000.

A sea of umbrellas and a solid result for Justin Long (Marshall White) SOUTH YARRA, 66 Hawksburn: Under the hammer, $2,440,000, 5 bidders

Biggest Sale: $7,060,000: Toorak 19 Huntingfield: Justin Long and Peter Bennison of Marshall White – Mid week auction, 3 bidders and on the market at $6,700,000. Bought under the hammer for $7,060,000. James Connell said afterwards that this market was not all bad news and he added Huntingfield proved that.

Bidderbuzz Auction: 66 Hawksburn Rd, South Yarra, Justin Long (Marshall White); under the hammer, $2,440,000, 5 bidders
“Despite the abysmal weather, a crowd of no less than 90 people attended this South Yarra auction. Auctioneer Justin Long did his best to entice an opening bid from the crowd, but to no avail, and instead decided to make a vendor bid of $1,800,000 to break the silence. Mr Long did not have to wait long for his first legitimate bid from the crowd, which came within moments of his vendor bid. Four other bids soon joined in the mix pushing the price past $2,000,000, then $2,100,000, and finally slowing at $2,400,000. Sensing the conclusion of the auction, Mr Long cannily attempted to extract one or two last bids from the interested parties. The home was eventually bought under hammer for $2,440,000 and applause were heard for the winning party.” (Daniel Ehrenreich)

Biggest Pass In we covered: 79a Harcourt St, Hawthorn East, Mark Dayman (Marshall White); passed in $3,300,000; no bidders
“No shoes were allowed in this property, which happens from time to time. What I wasn’t prepared for were the sixty pairs of shoes that made it difficult to access the front door! The attending crowd of over 130 surely gave auctioneer Mark Dayman some confidence that there might be a genuine buyer amongst the group.  With a succinct preamble it was now up to the crowd to play their part, however the silence led to a vendor bid of $3,300,000 . Still nothing and half time was called. After the quickest half time I have ever experienced, Mr Dayman didn’t mess around and the property was passed in.  Negotiations were commenced with interested parties.” (Guy Angwin)

New Subscriber System: Over the next few weeks we will  introduce a free subscription model giving you greater access to our council-specific wraps, which include auction results, news, opinion and analysis on a micro level. This subscription model helps us improve your browsing experience as clients or general subscribers by delivering more relevant content to you on the site and in your email newsletter. Sign up by clicking Subscribe at the top right of the website. If you experience any problems as we are testing and implementing this new improved system please let us know at enquiry@james.net.au

Auction Video: Klarity Kris reports from leafy Malvern on the Jeremy Fox (RT Edgar) auction at 4 Beamsley. Click on the live action.

Buyer Masterclass: What should you look for when buying a home when there are kids in the picture? Klarity Kris discusses this scenario in this week’s Buyer Masterclass.

We Only Buy Homes

Do you know where all the bidders have gone? Sorry Nathan no! GLEN IRIS, 1/292 Tooronga Rd passes for $975,000 in front of a small crowd.

STOP PRESS: March, while not huge in numbers, did finish the month with 3 solid mid week $3M+ buys – including 4 bidders at $7 million or better at 2 of them.

• Toorak Ottawa Avenue : Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar – quiet sale off market in the mid $8m’s
• Toorak 19 Huntingfield: Justin Long and Peter Bennison of Marshall White – mid week auction, 3 bidders and on the market at $6,700,000. Bought under the hammer for $7,060,000. James Connell said afterwards that this market was not all bad news and Huntingfield supported that.
• Canterbury 13 Rubens: Jeremy Desmier Fletchers and Tom Ryan, Sold before Auction: Over $3,200,000
• South Yarra – The Caroline Coachhouse – they were looking for $3m ish for a very long time (eg in the years) and now Mike Gibson – Kay and Burton has got it away.

South Yarra 17 Acland St: Gerald Delany. Fairly typical of the market for the slightly overpriced or slightly less than perfect. Passed-In with no bidders and now for sale at POA.

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Week Ending 26th March: The Market at this level was fairly quiet this week with the good sales, price wise but not too many of them.

• Templestowe, 9 Edwin: On the market since October of last year with Jeremy Tyrell of Fletchers. Has been bought for in excess of $4,700,000
• Richmond 37 Docker: Ken Griffith of Jellis Craig. Bought at auction, $3,300,000 – $3,500,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson Grove: Michael Lui of Marshall White. Bought after auction $3,600,000 – $3,800,000
• Toorak 17 Lansell: Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys. On the market since December of last year and selling for circle mid $3′s

Armadale 1026 Malvern Road: The recipe was there for a good auction - quality period home on big land - however the market is a different beast from some time ago at this price level and a quiet auction took place with Jack Bongiorno in charge. Opened on a bid of $3,400,000, passed in to that bidder and was bought after for an undisclosed amount. Crowd of 40.

Week Ending 19th March:

Off Markets, Forthcoming Auctions and Expressions of Interest are increasing as market stock levels begin to rise dramatically. However some big sales including a $13,000,000+ in Toorak and a $7,000,000+ in Brighton along with a few other $3m+ buys indicate the market hadn’t completely gone to sleep .

James Tostevin: “Overall a good day. The $3m+ market is hard to read and we are not getting huge numbers of bidders at many auctions;  so there is a case to say the results may be looking healthier than the market actually is – but from a purely stats points of view (clearance rates) today was a good day.”

In Boroondara:

• Balwyn 34-36 Linckens:  (Toby Parker of Hocking Stuart) – a $3m+ auction slotted in for auction this weekend has been bought before.The quote was over $3.7m and if, as we believe, it was bought for close to $4 million then it was a strong sale.
• Kew 41 Victor Avenue: (James Tostevin) – Two strong bidders and sold under the hammer for $4,100,000.
• Canterbury 17a Alexander Avenue: Passed In $3,200,000. No bidders
• Kew 22 Stawell: Passed In $3,000,000. 0 bidders.

In Stonnington:

• 19 Kingston St, Malvern East, Iain Carmichael (BenMac); After auction in excess of $4,600,000
  “Auctioneer Iain Carmichael was in charge of proceedings for this picture perfect home.  A large crowd of over 80 packed in to the beautiful mature gardens surrounding the house, as the sun shone to show this property at its very best.  The initial vendor bid of $4,250,000 didn’t seem over the top given the location of this park-adjacent idyll.  Despite the auctioneer being confident of a sale, no further bids were forthcoming and, after referral to the vendor, the property was passed in. (Debbie McTaggart)
  Footnote: Nobody bid at auction at $4,250,000 but 2 bidders emerged post auction and fought it out afterwards to a price well in excess of the reserve and well in excess of $4,600,000. Go figure.
• Armadale 1026 Malvern: James Redfern of Marshall White: Passed in $3,400,000 and bought afterwards. 1 bidder.

In Bayside:

• Brighton 29 St Ninians: As always, auctioneer Jonathan Dixon opened proceedings right on time and the preliminaries were soon completed. This property has a supreme and uninterrupted view of the Bay from the City to Royal Brighton Yacht Club and the potential for future development was clearly explained by Mr Dixon. Nevertheless, no bids were forthcoming and the property was passed in on a vendor bid of $7,300,000.
• Brighton 18A Martin: Passed In for $3,300,000. 1 bidder.

Labour Day Weekend March 12th: As expected minimal activity over the weekend; well no auctions that is – a heap of new stock was listed to go onto an already over supplied market.

Brighton 2 Shandford: Bought Post Auction for over $7 million or in around $10,000 per sq metre - meaning Melbourne absolute waterfront is amongst the most sought after land in the world. Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin from Buxton.

On a buying note, the Golden Mile in Brighton is still alive and well with Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin from Buxton getting 2 Shandford away post auction for an undisclosed amount over $7 million and in fact over Shandford’s other $7 million sale of a few weeks ago. This home had some positives and will possibly be retained but with two blocks totaling around 1400 sqm going for nearly $15,000,000 this shows that Melbourne absolute waterfront has some of the most sought after beach front in the world on a dollar per sq metre basis.

Another quieter one in the Golden Mile just before the long weekend – 11 Kent Avenue (Stan Fisher of Biggin and Scott) – was reported as bought again for an undisclosed amount having been sold only last year for a tick over $4 million. The rest of Melbourne may be a little quiet, but Golden Mile Brighton is relatively hot for land sales (compared to previous years).

In the heart of the Bagel Belt at 85 Lumeah Road Caulfield North (Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton) a large block of land (around 1800 sqm) with a tired home on it was sold for an undisclosed amount for over $4 million, under the hammer, having been on the market at $3.5 million – 3 bidders. That makes it number two along with Langdon Road at or over $4m in the last fortnight in Caulfield.

In Stonnington 20 St Georges has been bought for an undisclosed amount. The property had been quietly on the market for some time before a more public campaign this year. The asking price estimate was $12,000,000 to $15,000,000 and it is believed to have been sold in the middle. Andrew Tolson of TBM was the selling agent. We went through it a few times on behalf of different clients and found it to be a home of some class with good light and a nice flowing floor plan – slight negatives were a less than full-sized tennis court and some overlooking at the rear (although it was not significant and, if you lost the tennis court, planting could remedy that). Being St Georges it commanded a premium – although to date its “little brother” down the road at No 10 hasn’t sold at an already passed Expressions of Interest deadline. However, considering the home’s characteristics, it would be hats off to the agents if it got near their $10,000,000 ask, even if it is St Georges.

Also went through 14 Bruce St Toorak late last month –  it has been bought for a reasonable margin over $3,000,000. Again showing the power of good architects and in particular Wayne Gillespie. Difficult block and orientation and a market place that has competition for supply, so this was a good result for an Expressions of Interest campaign and the man that sells a number of these very quietly – Marcus Chiminello.

‘Hoping for $3m in a different market but didn’t quite get there’ stories: In Port Phillip, 7 Pilley Street in St Kilda East, which was originally marketed at an ambitious around $3 million, has been bought for around $2.6 million - Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar. All things considered, this was still a very good result for the area. In Malvern, 5 Gaynor Court with Rob Vickers-Willis got to $2.73 million and a three storey terrace home in Carlton with Anthony Gattuso of AG Property got around the same amount. All solid results.

Overall still a lot of properties on the market at this $3m+ price level that have completed normal auction and Expression of Interest with no result.

Malvern 66 Claremont: Iain Carmichael: Bought for $3,700,000: 3 bidders: At this point, someone yelled "is it on the market?" and the BenMac team hastily retreated inside to speak to the vendor. Upon his return, Mr Carmichael said yes indeed it was on the market and it was here that the bidding really took off. After the price hit $3,625,000, one of the bidders went bang - $3,700,000 - and knocked everyone else out of the competition. A great finish to a great auction

Week Ending 5th March: All the bigger deals were basically in one spot, Stonnington.

Actual Boughts in Stonnington:

• Malvern 19 Hamilton – Justin Long – At Auction – $4,357,000
• Malvern 66 Claremont – Iain Carmichael – At Auction – $3,700,000
• Toorak 9 Ross – Justin Long – Auction – over $3,600,000
• Toorak – 3 Teringa – Andrew(s) McCann and Macmillan of Benmac – post last weeks auction – over $3,500,000 – nearly $5000 per sqm for rear south facing land
• Toorak – 611 Toorak Road – Expressions of Interest – Greg Herman of RT Edgar – $3,500,000
• Toorak – 231 Kooyong Road – James Redfern – Post last Saturday’s auction – over $3,500,000
• Malvern East – 127 Finch St – Rob Vickers-Willis – $3,300,000

Bayside: A Key land Indicator

• 11 William St Brighton with Rod Richardson of Hocking Stuart – $3,100,000 for 1383 sqm of land = $2,241 per sqm for land in central Brighton. Solid and expected result. 5 bidders.

Boroondara: Action at the Top End almost non-existent

• Stock Surge – Large amounts of $M+ stock are hitting the market for pre-Easter campaigns
• 61 Bellett Camberwell has been on the market since July of last year and was sold by Sam Wilkinson of Kay and Burton mid week for $3,100,000.
• The Balwyn formula of big block, new home, big price tag seems to have come to a grinding halt – very few high end new sales. Opportunity?
• Off markets are on the increase.

Port Phillip: The overpriced are as cold as ice in Port Phillip right now. No bites, no action – as evidenced by the pass-ins of yesterday and the first two weeks of this market.

• I went to a Beaconsfield auction yesterday – the offering slightly less than perfect but still a great spot – however the start was a $4million vendor bid and then a $4,250,000 vendor bid. I may have to eat humble pie when the result comes in but for me the four sales on this strip over $4m last year seemed different offerings.
• 49 Howe Crescent, which was advertised in an Expressions of Interest campaign for later this month, sold last week well over its $5m+ guideline for more than $6m (we believe). A very rare large land size at 915 sqm with a double fronted Victorian on it shows the pulling power of large land so close to the CBD in the St Vincent Garden precinct (or just off it). Michael Coen of Hocking Stuart was the dealmaker on this one. Good job.

What are you talking about? - course the market's OK! St Kilda East 239 Alma Road: Phillip Kingston: Bought for $1,500,000: 3 bidders (Photo Kate Agnoleto)

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate on the 31 auctions we covered was 58%.

Bidderman, our demand indicator of average bidders per auction, had a small rise to 1.6 bidders per auction, in part due to four volcanoes (strong auctions) including one 7 bidder auction in 28 Barrington St Kew.

These figures indicate that the market has now cooled – not frozen or falling apart, just cooled. That means we have moved into a buyers’ market, perhaps until Easter and possibly until Spring.

Well-priced homes are still selling. And there have been some surprising above-expectation results, such as 28 Barrington Kew (Glen Coutinho) which sold for $2,230,000 and, last week,Victor Road Kew (James Tostevin) at $4.1 million. But if the market doesn’t agree with initial pricing then it’s a slow, torturous journey to get a result. See our special Pass-Ins and Stales Report below.

This week we also look at the returns of serve on The Economist’s article as the ‘Experts’ hit back against the “Overpriced” headlines of last week.

This Weekend’s Market Summary:

This weekend in most places, except Boroondara, there was limited $M+ stock on offer at auction. The individual council clearance rates we report on in our market wraps could be distorted due to a) lack of auctions and b) lack of overall quality in those auctions. But this is not to imply a lack of stock in general – there are high levels of $M+ stock available across the board and Boroondara in particular is almost awash with homes on the market.

Looking specifically for a moment at Boroondara (Kew, Hawthorn, Canterbury and Camberwell), while this market may be a little out of kilter with the rest of Melbourne in terms of auction numbers, in the past few years it is a market that has shown the strongest resilience against negativity. It was affected by the GST for the shortest time, and has had the biggest price increases since. This weekend too it seemed to have a little oomph and we expect the clearance rate for Boorondara $M+ homes to be in the high 50s to low 60s.

But it does have a fight on its hands right now, with the main demand drivers (overseas buyers) reducing greatly in activity and supply to the market continuing to arrive week after week. Which means that buyers who can look beyond the headlines will find opportunities, and with the right strategies you should be in a position to push back a little against the seemingly never ending sellers’ market.

The next few weeks will be better in terms of auction quality in the top of the Top End in Boroondara. As long as those properties sell and the clearance rates stay stable, and if new stock reduces post Easter, we could move back to a balanced market. But if stock continues to come on in big numbers then the market will almost certainly remain cool with a significant change in demand sentiment.

Most of the $M+ homes on offer that sold this weekend were in the early $1 million range.

Bayside, Port Phillip, Stonnington have been quiet, with only a handful of sales in the post auction wash up from March 19th  and likewise at auction this weekend. In Port Phillip this is understandable as the Grand Prix completely extinguishes the market for almost a month. Why auction numbers are down in Brighton, Toorak and Malvern is not completely obvious – well not to us anyway. April 9th is shaping up as a Super Saturday of some sorts with almost 120 auctions in Boroondara and Stonnington combined. $M+ auctions in Bayside are still light on at the top of the Top End with mainly $1 million to $2 million homes on offer for the next few weeks leading into Easter. Most of the top of the Top End in Bayside is not going to auction.

Agent thoughts: Has the market changed since before the Labour Day weekend?
Chris Barrett, Marshall White, Hawthorn:“There have been a lot of people in the media talking about a negative change in the market since Labour day weekend, I however have found this to be unsubstantiated. As long as vendors prices are realistic and the property is presented well vendors can expect solid interest in their home.”
John Clarkson, Hocking Stuart, Brighton:“Good properties near local attractions and amenities, schools, shopping and the beach are still attracting a high level of enquiry.  Since Labour Day weekend the message is clear: If you are realistically priced you have a very good chance of selling . If you are above market perception, enquiry is reduced to a trickle.”  * For John’s full comments please see the Bayside weekly wrap.

James Special Report: Pass-Ins and Stales – The Autumn overhang build up.

We went back and re-examined all the auctions we reported on this year in 2011 and we revisited all the pass-ins, using still advertised on the net to determine their still for sale status. Please note that the table below is only connected with PASS-INS, not the homes we reported as bought before, at or just after auction on the day.

The table does make for interesting reading on the fate of a home that the market does not consider to be priced correctly at auction.

The table below shows Adjusted Clearance Rates comparing”On the Day” Clearance Rates with “On the Day plus Bought since”. Back in February 19 and 26 Pass-ins were taken up fairly quickly. However the most interesting stat is the lack of take up on Passed-in homes over the last two weeks of auctions: only 3 in 26.

• 1 of the 13 unsolds from the March 5th pass-ins and
• 2 of the 13 from the March 19th pass-ins.

This we feel confirms the view that the $M+ market started the year as balanced, but around Labour Day took a cooling direction.

What's happening Nick? Bentleigh 7 Eddys: Bought $1,312,500: 3 bidders. (Photo: David James)

James Big Issue: Agents claiming there are 100% Clearance rates in this market are just as misleading as saying the market is in freefall – both are far from the truth. Klarity Kris and Architect Adam cover it in the James Big Issue Video. Here is a summary of what they say.

• Still some surprising results. Two in particular, both in Boroondara, that stand out are Victor Avenue in Kew with James Tostevin – which sold for a hard to believe $4,100,000. Nic Franzman, Mark Dayman and Nic Ptak also from Marshall White’s result at 22 Stawell St Kew for $3,300,000. That was also a most surprising result
• We are hearing from agents 100% clearance rates – mainly due to agents feeling they need to respond to the Negativity of The Economist’s article and the Earthquakes, which for the moment have contributed to dampening demand.
• An interesting stat is that only 3 of the 26 homes we reported as passed in after auction in the last two weeks of auctions have since sold.
• We could say that 3 from 26 is reflective of the market strength – a far cry from the 100% Clearance Rate stats, BUT 3 from 26 while true, is also misrepresenting the market just as is reporting 100% clearance rates
• The market was in a balanced state pre Labour Day and as expected it is now going into a cooling phase until Easter due to increased stock levels and drop in demand intensity.

The message for buyers

• You have choice in the $3m+ range but there are still a few surprisingly strong results
• You will still have to compete relatively strongly if the home is good and well priced in that $1m to $1.5m range
• And the middle range say circle $2m to $2.5m is a bit of moving beast – the trend is not crystal clear to us at this stage.

Click on the JAMES BIG ISSUE video with Architect Adam and Klarity Kris in the middle of the home page

Media Monitor: Are Melbourne homes overpriced?

The case for being overpriced arose from The Economist’s article – which we reported on last week.  And now this week the case against those seemingly extreme overpriced by 56% headlines.

Rob Brooker head of economics from the NAB

1. Current events such as floods and Japan are affecting Melbourne short term, but long term our fundamentals are very strong.
2. Not suggesting prices are going to increase rapidly as affordability is hard pressed right now but we do have a shortage of housing stock.

His comments can be found in the excellent Kay and Burton report – sure it’s a selling tool but we listen to the expert commentary each time it’s on It’s well produced, they have credible experts and it’s relevant to our high end Melbourne market. Check it out, at least the expert comment stuff. The home fluff afterwards is up to you: http://www.kayburton.com.au/kayburtonreport

Paul Bloxham – HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, and a former RBA economist savages The Economist’s article stating “it’s too naive to be useful”. His main points in the Business Spectator are

1. We have an undersupply in inner city areas (totally agree with this comment)
2. Our stock is very high quality and has improved considerably over the last 20 years contributing to the increases in price paid (totally agree with this comment)
3. Very strong and improving economy (beyond our level of expertise but sounds good)

For the full article http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Australian-property-prices-housing-bubble-pd20110317-F24WP?OpenDocument&src=sph This was supplied by Al Craig of Jellis Craig – thank you.

‘Round the Grounds Headlines:
Boroondara- Some solid results but the trend is down under weight of stock numbers.
Bayside- Little movement on a lot of the recent Auction pass-ins
Stonnington- Small numbers of $M+ auctions today – although plenty of Top End non auction stock available
Port Phillip-With the Grand Prix – only 4 key $M+ auctions – 3 sold
More detailed analysis on our Weekly Local Council Market Wraps

Biggest Sales we can report:

• Templestowe, 9 Edwin: On the market since October of last year with Jeremy Tyrell of Fletchers. Has been bought for in excess of $4,700,000
• Richmond 37 Docker: Ken Griffith of Jellis Craig. Bought at auction, $3,300,000 – $3,500,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson Grove: Michael Lui of Marshall White. Bought after auction $3,600,000 – $3,800,000
• Toorak 17 Lansell, Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys. On the market since December of last year

Biggest Sale we covered after auction: 44 Mary St Hawthorn, Antony Woodley of Marshall White. Above $2,700,000 (Undisclosed): Bought after auction, 1 bidder

Biggest Sale we covered under the hammer: 28 Barrington Ave, Kew, Glen Coutinho (Hocking Stuart), Under the hammer $2,230,000, 7 bidders (WOW)
“This Kew property did attract a crowd of 80 people, with quite a few potential buyers in the mix. The auctioneer, Glen Countinho, had to field bids from a whopping seven different bidders! Despite the light rain, the flow of the auction was quite amazing and reached the final amount of $2,230,000 before the hammer came down.” (Sonia Matmati)

Biggest Pass In: 68 Studley Park Rd, Kew, Passed in, $3,700,000
“A very pretty setting for an auction. Standing on an elevated embankment, auctioneer Richard Earle literally oversaw proceedings. He began by highlighting the virtues of this property with energy and detail. No bids came forth, however, so it was passed in for $3,700,000.”

Auction Video: This week i’ts down to Brighton with Klarity Kris at 22 Oakwood Ave, a Hocking Stuart auction with Peter Kennett. Click on the live action.

Please Note: we always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be videoed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

Buyer Master Class: Klarity Kris discusses what’s necessary when buying a home when there are kids in the picture. Is it double storey single fronted or single storey double fronted!

Copyright: Mouldy Bread Picture from ChemistryWorldBlog.

We Only Buy Homes

Hawthorn 35 Mason: Scott Patterson and Michael Armstrong: Bought for over $3,100,000: 4 bidders

Some interesting results to finish off the month:

• 6 Teringa Place Toorak with Andrew Macmillan and Andrew McCann of Benmac was bought Sunday for an undisclosed amount over $3,500,000. House was quite serviceable but it would have also been considered as a bulldozer job placing land just under $5000 per sq metre
• 

  49 Howe Crescent South Melbourne - bought in excess of $6,000,000. Expressions of Interest - Michael Coen Hocking Stuart

  And a very quick and smart result at 49 Howe Crescent South Melbourne with Michael Coen of Hocking Stuart – due to be sold through an Expressions of Interest Campaign completing 21st March it was snapped up within a few days of advertising on the 25th of February. The result was a strong one and is undisclosed but the  quoting was over $5,000,000 and we believe in sold for in excess of $6,000,000 to give you some perspective. We do a fair bit of work in the is Expression of Interest area and this again proves that those who wait until the stated deadline do not put themselves in the best position to buy.

• 

  290 Beach Beaumaris - Len Sharp Chisholm and Gamon - Full asking price of $2,950,000 after a previously failed selling campaign.

  Private Sale at 290 Beach Road Black Rock with Len Sharp of Chisholm and Gamon for full asking price of $2,950,000. This again supports our comments that 1) Bayside and 2) New and 3) $3m (almost) price tag are a combination that is getting some runs on the board in the late Summer of 2011.

• Caulfield 20 Langdon Road – Rochelle Butt and Rodney Morley of TBM got away 1500 sqm of land plus home in Caulfield North for an amount believed to be in excess of $4,000,000. Showing that Caulfield’s prices can be Canterbury prices when the right package is sought after.

Week Ending February 26th: If last week was the season opener for the $1m+ auction market, then  this  week  was the beginning of the $3m+ auction market and the main  focus for this weekend’s report. We don’t have all this weekend’s numbers in yet, so it’s hard to call, but it seems that this upper  market cleared at 44% of the properties under the hammer. We at  James accept a slightly lower auction clearance rate on the day in this segment as indicating balanced, warm or even hot  markets, because the air is generally thinner at this level due to the lower number of bidders available at this price point, and because the pre and post auction argy-bargy is  generally greater. Today there were quite a few $3m+ homes on offer. We  think this market segment is underwhelming at present – however if it is the right price, the right property and the right position it is still being well  received and taken up.

A few of the biggies that were bought

• Armadale 23 Wattletree Road – Justin Long – 3 bidders – $3,300,000
• Hawthorn 46 Illawarra – Mark Dayman – Bought Before – $4,250,000
• Brighton 33 Middle Crescent – Jason Swift – 3 bidders – $4,300,000
• Malvern East 8 Westgarth – Andrew Macmillan – 2 bidders – Post Auction Buy a smidge under $3,000,000
• Hawthorn 45 Mason – Scott Patterson – 4 bidders – Under  the Hammer over $3,100,000
• Malvern East 118 Finch – Bought for $3,150,000
• Kew 4 Madden – Peter Batrouney – Bought After – 1 bidder – $3,050,000
• East Melbourne – John Bongiorno – 3 bidders – $3,000,000

Some of the biggies that missed the mark

• Balwyn North 15 Stephens  – 2 bidders – Passed In for $3,650,000
• Balwyn North 59 Hosken – Passed In for $4,050,000
• Toorak 44 Verdant – Passed In for $3,750,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson – Passed In for $3,600,000
• Toorak 231 Kooyong – Passed In for $3,500,000
• Malvern East 50 Finch  - 1 Bidder – Passed In $4,100,000

St Kilda West 49 Mary: Passed In $4,000,000 - 0 Bidders: Andrew Stuart was not in the mood for mucking around – he had an uphill battle and he knew it. An opening vendor bid of $4,000,000 immediately hushed the vibrant crowd of 120 and that was it. Game over – a half time break for show but the gate was shut. A duck for this auction. Photos by Phoebe James

Week Ending February 19th: This market is either poor or, what is more reasonable to assume, still on holidays. Mike Gibson of Kay and Burton says that most high end sellers, as advised, are waiting. Hence the quality currently on the market is average. He expects good stock at this level to come on post Labour Day and before Easter.

To support our claims that the $3m+ market hasn’t really got going yet, look at this weekend’s Pass–Ins of $3m+ properties  –

St Kilda West – Mary St – $4,000,000 –  0 Bidders
James Auction Report: See Report Above

Camberwell – Canterbury Road – $3,801,000 – 1 Bidder
James Auction Report: An air of expectation at another James Tostevin Boroondara tennis court auction. He has almost singlehandedly made them his own over the last 2 years or thereabouts. His focus has been 20000 sq ft tennis court at $6m plus. A huge crowd, around 200 with kids trampolining, people milling and cars driving by. Everybody seems to know at least one person to give a wink or a nod to. Carnival atmosphere. Then the business started – well this time it didn’t. One auctioneer bid at $3,800,000 and then surprisingly one crowd bid for $1,000 more. Small Argument – settled with pass-in to the bidder on his $1,000 bid. Inside to do battle and last check they were still banging heads. We await the result.

"You are all very naughty schoolkids and I'm going to keep you back here somebody bids." Well no, James Tostevin didn't say that but he may have been thinking this on Saturday. Camberwell 31 Canterbury: Passed In $3,801,000: 1 bidder:

Balwyn – 12 Creswick – $3,425,000 – 3 Bidders
James Auction Report: A genuine bid of $2,000,000 opened proceedings. Auctioneer Maurice Di Marzio politely accepted the bid, suggesting it was closer to land value than a sale price, before offering a vendor bid of $3,200,000. More than 150 people watched Mr Di Marzio field bids from another two bidders before passing the property in at $3,425,000. Both interested parties headed inside after the auction for further discussions.

Albert Park – 139 Beaconsfield – $3,250,000 — 0 Bidders
James Auction Report: Auctioneer David Wood from Hocking Stuart was seriously up against the elements today as he tried to make himself heard against the traffic noise and the wind coming off Port Phillip Bay. The preamble was short and to the point, before he asked for bids. No one was prepared to open the bidding and he immediately entered a vendor bid of $3,250,000. Still no response, so half time was called. After the think music was up, the question was asked again and still no bids. The property was passed in on the vendor bid.

Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton successful at 29 Scott Grove Glen Iris

Kooyong – 711 Toorak – $3,190,000

In fact the only auction sale over $3,000,000 we covered was 29 Scott Grove Glen Iris (Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton) for $3,032,000 – 3 Bidders.
James Auction Report: A triangular battle developed right from the word go, and auctioneer Gowan Stubbings orchestrated the bidding superbly to maintain momentum throughout. Only when the $3,000,000 mark was eclipsed, did one of the bidders drop out. $32,000 later and the property was secured. Good naturedly, the two bidders shook hands to acknowledge the end of the contest. A riveting event.

However a few strong private and off-market sales show this market is not completely morbid. There is still some pulse. There were three very solid such sales in Bayside this week:

Brighton Golden Mile: Scene of 2 big sales over $10,000 per sq metre in February 2011

Shandford Avenue – Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon – $7.3m for 600sqm approx – which translates to $10,000 sqm for Golden Mile beachfront

Chatsworth Avenue – Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton – $11m+ for 1100 sqm approx – again, $10,000 sqm for Golden Mile beachfront

Kerferd Road – Andrew Stuart of Hocking Stuart – $4.9m off market – 440 sqm approx

Continuing with February Sales:

While we have seen no sales over $3m reported in Boroondara and only the long suffering and difficult to see what you can do with it 13 Como Sth Yarra finally sold (Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar) we have seen a reasonable amount of mopping up action in Brighton – a sort of summer clean out.

New and old Brightonians like to buy New in Brighton

1 Inner Crescent Brighton with Justin Follett of Kay and Burton for an undisclosed amount – proved difficult to move and while it was an impressive residence it must have been price that proved the sticking point. Having said that line it up against a number of apartments and I thought the final result was fair value.

This type of offering sold well over Summer

2 William St Brighton – cnr St Andrews –scene of the all the helicopter noise in recent weeks saw a similar offering to 1 Inner Crescent also sell –reportedly through Kay and Burton.

2a Mulgoa also with Kay and Burton and a similar offering got a lot of it’s 50% better price basically because of its golden mile location.

Another good result  in the Golden Mile this time for the dynamic duo Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin saw another of the Glyndon apartments (no 4) bought for $3,200,000 which continues to emphasize the demand for “retiree” offerings and it shows the selling appeal for Friedrich designs.

The Buxton duo again  – 1/188 The Esplanade with waterfront views but unlike the Golden Mile also some traffic noise – bought for $3,500,000.

And finally also Buxton in Brighton – David Hart got away a very popular 62 Dendy when we  went through it (but for us main road, south facing , tight block) for a smidge under $2,950,000. And increase of just over 28% from the depths of the GFC,  2 years ago.

KEW, 4 Madden Grove: Peter Batrouney and his Jellis Craig team head outside to face the music after the half time break. Bought Afterwards for an undisclosed amount,1 bidder.

Key Points

• Big Numbers at almost all auctions – a crowd of 300 reported at 15 Stephens St Balwyn North
• Agents are concerned about the market – definitely not upbeat as a whole
• Lots of new stock on the market this week – Pre Easter has the potential to be a whole new market to this early season one
• The Balwyn/Nth Balwyn formula – new home on small block for over $3m – may be in trouble with two more homes, Hosken and Stephen, failing to sell. Creswick from last week is still available. Is it lack of buyers or the prices have just gone past market reality? We feel it’s the latter.

The first of the $3m sales for Boroondara are starting to happen:

• Hawthorn 46 Illawarra – Mark Dayman – Bought Before – $4,250,000
• Hawthorn 45 Mason – Scott Patterson – 4 bidders – Under  the Hammer over $3,100,000
• Kew 4 Madden – Peter Batrouney – Bought After – 1 bidder – $3,050,000
• Plus on Tuesday there was a sold sticker at 31 Canterbury Camberwell – James Tostevin for last Saturdays passed in auction – over $4,000,000