Well, here we are in early August – and anything that has been written about the market in the last few months has been to fill some space. Because nothing has been happening. Nothing good and nothing bad – just plain ‘ol nothing.

There’s a saying in our business that the really good agents should take the J months off: January, June and July. That certainly happened this year: most good agents have spent a fair proportion of the last eight weeks re-connecting with family, friends or their inner self. Yes, we do have all of the above, (well most of us do).

Sure, there’s been plenty of talk about tough times from the punters and press; plenty of conjecture about where prices are going from anyone who knows anything,  and from plenty who know absolutely nothing about high end Melbourne real estate. Like that other great weekend game there have been some personnel changes – and the odd betting, sorry ‘quoting’, scandal and a few boys who didn’t pass the dope test.

All in all we seemed primed for an interesting four months between Footy Finals and Santa time.

This next four months is traditionally two markets:  the early Spring market – which runs from just before Elimination Final day to Grand Final – and the late spring market which starts the week after Grand Final and runs at a frenetic pace until the Melbourne Cup break and then for another month before winding down into Christmas.

We’re likely to see some ‘Super Saturdays’ at the end of August, on preliminary final day and the weekend before the Cup. And then, depending on the early Spring market, perhaps also the last week in November and the first fortnight of December.

The almost guaranteed Super Saturday will be the last week before the Melbourne Cup – although with the Grand Final running a week later this year sellers will need to start their four week campaign on that holiest of days, the Grand Final, to get in before the horses leap from the stalls at Flemington.

So what should home hunters be looking for? A good start is to look at the thickness of their Weekly Review over the next few weeks. Seriously. If the Review is like a phone book prior to Grand Final, then we’ll have some choice and prices may not run away on the good quality homes. But if it is as thin as a dry cleaning brochure, buyers are going to have to compete hard on the limited quality stock presented.

Which is what has been happening since May. There has been so little on offer that is quality. Which means any quality, well-priced home has attracted considerably more interest than you’d expect reading the gloom and doom headlines. That’s because this market is not a weak market caused by lack of demand – any weakness or negativity is due to a severe quality contraction of supply of well priced quality homes.

Our company went to 28 auctions the weekend before last and a third had 3 bidders or more – with three $1 million plus auctions attracting 5, 7 and 9 bidders That included a 5 bidder auction at 3 Irymple Ave, Glen Iris (Iain Carmichael and $3,000,000 Bought); a 7 bidder at 42 Guildford Rd, Surrey Hills (Antony Woodley and $1,381,000 Bought) and a 9 bidder, at 28 Montclair Ave, Brighton (Peter Kennett and $1,820,000 Bought).

So it’s all about the sellers. The late spring market post Grand Final will be in part determined by the headlines in marketnews.com.au and the newspapers over the next two months. If August and September is all negative headlines and low clearance rates and talk of falling prices then anyone who doesn’t have to sell will again be reluctant to market their homes – and that will again  impact on buyers.

So what are buyers hoping for in this new home hunting season? Choice. Firstly they want some thick property mags in August or September; they want to see some positive headlines in the papers in the lead up to Grand Final; and then they want more thick magazines between Grand Final and Melbourne Cup. If that happens the world should be a wonderful place for Melbourne homebuyers. If not well ….. let’s wait and see.

Published each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s million-plus property magazine.

Last week we covered the Early Spring Market

There’s no guarantee we’ll see a lift in the housing market as we go into Spring this year. On the supply side, there’s a build-up of long term unsold properties (stales) and a compounding shortage of exciting, well priced new stock. On the demand side, buyers have had a particularly hard time of late – not so much in finding homes, but in finding homes of quality; however when those homes are found they sell well, proving there is a solid level of underlying demand.

Buyers do want to buy and they’ve been out there in good numbers most weekends. Our demand indicator Bidderman, has shown an average of two bidders an auction some weekends. But they have proven to be stubborn on homes that are not market priced.

There are actually two Spring markets: early Spring (September and October) and late Spring (November). They’re intimately connected. According to Sam Gamon of Chisholm and Gamon, what happens in late spring is always greatly influenced by the early Spring results. It’s all about confidence says his Elwood auction partner, Torsten Kasper. “A few weeks of good results in early spring may lay the platform for an increased level of homes for mid to late spring.”

On the other hand, David Hart of Buxton Brighton says there’s a strong pattern favouring a late spring recovery – at least in Bayside. “Human nature being what it is, many people wait until they are almost out of time to put their property on the market. And there are those who purchase October onwards, who need to sell their own property prior to Christmas. I expect this year will be no different.”

So what about price?

Despite the continued negativity from overseas, Buxton’s Mark Earle can’t envisage any significant changes in housing prices. “Fundamentally there is a shortage of houses in Melbourne with population growth. And Melbourne has been widely recognised as the best performing city in the country in terms of stability over recent years.” Cycles seem to be getting shorter, he points out – “take the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent boom market of 2009” – and things can change quickly.

According to Benmac’s Iain Carmichael, given the low stock levels, prices are likely to hold. “Agents will have far less trouble achieving full results for good family homes in the $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 range. Vendors at the very top end have a tendency to feel that their property is somehow guaranteed to appreciate in the face of a steadying market. Curious really!”

Kay and Burton director Ross Savas also believes that prices will be steady. “The fundamentals of our economy are still very good and we have amazing employment levels in our country. So as long as nothing occurs out of left field I believe prices will hold in Victoria.”

So when do you buy and sell?

Peter Kennett of Hocking Stuart, says his advice to sellers is to get in early rather than late. “Late spring is when supply usually increases with more motivated sellers as they have most likely bought!!” As for buyers, David Hart, of Buxton Brighton, believes that the later in the year before Christmas, the more motivated sellers are to lock in a result. “Although you should never pass up the opportunity to purchase the right property on the assumption that if you wait, you might get an early Christmas present!”

With the mix of school holidays, horse racing weekends and the shift in the Grand Final from the last week in September to the first week in October, there are effectively only 16 Saturdays that will give a vendor the traditional four Saturday auction program,  points out Richard Winneke, of Jellis Craig. “And of these no doubt some will be more popular than others – creating super Saturdays on dates like 27th August , 24th September and 3rd December.”

For bargain hunters, late spring may be a better market than early due to vendors having to sell and time running out. However you do take the risk that what you may not be there by late Spring.

This is where patience presents a conundrum for buyers: if many of us pass on buying in early spring then the late spring surge may not happen at all. And come Christmas time we will still be in a buyers’ market but we won’t have bought. The question is then: how long are you prepared to wait?

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Plus property magazine

A few smiles were found on Saturday and here was one of them. David Hart (Buxton) with friend at 48 Regent St, Brighton East. Passed in $1,275,000, 1 bidder

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for $M+ properties in Melbourne was 55% on the 29 auctions we attended. We covered around half the $M+ auctions this weekend. May is looking very lean for auctions and today was almost a non event auction wise

The Weekly Review Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 1.2 bidders per auction. Considering the low numbers on offer at auction this was not a good sign for sellers going forward.

The Perils of Emotional Bidding
The big auction issue for me this weekend was how bidders were bidding. I went to three auctions with a total of  nine bidders and saw some very surprising and costly bidding.

One example was the auction at 48 Emo Road, Malvern East. This is a lovely little single fronted in one of my favourite family and investment areas, the Ardrie Park precinct in Malvern East. Middle of the road quality, not bad for those just starting out in the home ownership stakes – plenty of space inside and outside and good flow. Good feel.

Anyway the auction is about to start and a nice healthy crowd of around 100 has gathered to hear the pearls from a not-so-old stager who rarely auctions these days – Peter Bennison.

Peter calls for an opening bid, to which one very enthusiastic bidder responds with a strong and emotional bid of $950,000. With repeated calls for further $10,000 rises unsuccessful, Peter takes a strategic half time break. On returning, he unsurprisingly declares that the property will be passed-in to the lone bidder if no further bidding. After a second bidder pipes in offering that elusive $10,000 rise, the original bidder responds emotionally and strongly with a crowd hushing $1,000,000. Perhaps the bidder should have asked the “Is it on the market?” question – because this was well above the original quote of $890,000 to $950,000.

What it also means is that the auction will now be completed behind closed doors with some argy bargy instead of cleanly in the street and under the hammer, which a good question could have allowed. The final result of $1,150,000 is decided inside a few minutes later. Wow! I know the buyer saved the fee of getting professional help and normally I am against such flexible post auction reserves but really if a  buyer wants to pay then they should be allowed to – it’s a free country. For the very experienced Mr Bennison this bidder was a gift, and he knew exactly how to work this  situation to the benefit of his client, the vendor (low quality agents may not have recognized the opportunity presented).

There are a couple of things that come from this as lessons to first home buyers and DIYers:

1) As a bidder, by all means look strong to ward off other nervous buyers. But it doesn’t help to look emotional – an experienced agent will pick up on that and it will cost you money

2) In this market you have to test every step of the way. Ask questions. There was nothing wrong with the opening bid but the winning bidder’s second bid could and in fact should have been presented in a very different way. Because it wasn’t, the post auction problems snowballed from this one decision.

3) In this market, on a $890,000 to $950,000 quote, and with no proven competition above $960,000 why would you be rushing up the pole to an incredible $1,150,000? If you have to pay it then at least take a few hours of testing to get there.

There’s no doubt that it’s a good home and I certainly would have recommended buying it. And maybe the result would have been no different if a professional was managing the buying side. But I think a number of safety procedures could have been implemented prior to agreeing to that amount.

There were further interesting results along these lines at the auctions at 13 Maskell St Brighton (Peter Kennett) and 7 McClaughlin Sandringham (Mark Earle). Please see today’s auction reports for more details.

Now back to the market – Future Stock:

Auctions – May is going to be very quiet compared to May 2010, when we witnessed well in excess of 1000 $M+ sales across Melbourne. Melbourne’s Inner East and Bayside represent a majority of  Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus sales, and predicted auction numbers in these areas for the four weeks in May are as follows: this past weekend 45, next week 43, and the last two weeks in May, 105 and 106. Even though there were five Saturdays in May 2010, there would need to be an incredible number of private sales this year to get the final numbers of solds anywhere near last year, and that is not likely to happen with the current market mood.

Off Markets – According to agents there is a strong trend towards private and off-market sales. Nick Johnstone, of JP Dixon (Brighton) says: “We are seeing a definite swing towards private and off market sales which shows a transitional phase in the market.” 

Other agent comments:

David Oster, Jellis Craig (Ivanhoe): “The 28^th May will be a Strong Saturday. It is the last clear Saturday before School holidays.”

Richard Winneke, Jellis Craig (Hawthorn): “May 21, May 28 & June 4 are 3 bigger Saturdays and then many owners will hold off selling until August.”

Melbourne Wide April Wash Up :
Volume -  Has a lot changed in Million Dollar Melbourne between April 2010 and April 2011? Well, yes and no. April 2010 had around the same number of REIV reported $1m+ sales (there may be a 10% variance with the chance of late reported April 2011 sales to bring the April 2010 and April 2011 numbers closer together) but on a count of over 500 buy/sells, not much has changed in terms of volume.

However, even though the last market turned in April 2010, May 2010 was a boom month with well over 1000 REIV reported $m+ sales throughout greater Melbourne. Therefore May 2011 will be watched to see if it can get anywhere near those sorts of numbers, however we don’t think that will happen. We are still seeing a $M+ home bought every ninety (90) minutes somewhere in Melbourne and that was with Easter taking up a fair bit of the month.

Let’s look at a couple of suburbs which we randomly selected to give a spread of Greater Melbourne $M+ reported sales for the month of April 2011 compared to April 2010.

Price – In our opinion, backed up by REIV Median price results, we feel prices are definitely flat or falling and have been for the most part of this year and a lot of last year. When we say flat or falling we don’t mean plummeting – we mean a drop by as much as 10% over the last 12 months. However we are still seeing plenty of instances of the old property truism: If it is well located and has some WOW and the right price to attract multiple bidders then it is still possible for the ultimate buyer to be paying more than you would have expected last year.

Winter is upon us and buyers and sellers alike appear in a less enthusiastic mood than even a few weeks ago. Even so, we have bought more $1M+ homes this year to date than this time last year at the same time.  And why wouldn’t you buy now, unless you know something we don’t? Price and choices have been considerably better than last year.

$3M+ Market Report:
Back from a week or two off, this market now, has a fairly clear run till Christmas, with a only brief breaks for a couple of holiday weekends.

A couple of strong results today:

• Elwood 18 Normanby (Paul Sutherland) – Bought for $3,375,000, 4 bidders – see our video auction
• Camberwell 26 Alma (Alastair Craig) – Bought After – $Over $3,000,000 at asking – no bidders – there is that strange bidding thing again

Over the next four to six weeks we should see more choice and some reasonable activity (although not expected anywhere near the levels of last year), as the May market is a traditional agent preferred selling time. Why? Well there is a good stretch of time until Queens Birthday weekend to run an uninterrupted campaign. Stock Quality is the unknown.

Come July things will be relatively quiet as there is a general sellers’ feeling (rightly or wrongly) that good homes do not look their best at this time of the year and accordingly a number of high end selling agents take winter holidays in Europe and therefore do not program campaigns to be run in their absence.

In the post Easter week or so there have been ten or more high end sales including the representative  half dozen below

• 15 St Ninians in Brighton for between $8m and $9m – perhaps not a lot more than what is was sold for less than 2 years ago (need to look up sale time to be absolutely sure of date) – Justin Follett of Kay and Burton
• 255 New Brighton for between $5.5m and $6m – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin of Buxton
• 50 Hotham St East Melbourne which had been on the market for at least 6 months for $7million – Paul Richards of Hocking Stuart – on the market for a fair bit of last year and also a failed auction. Nonetheless a reasonable price – not everything the sellers wanted – but more than had been offered at times in the past by buyers. A good result for both parties.
• 150 Clarendon East Melbourne – the Salta apartments saw Anton Wongtrakun deliver another big sale at $5,200,000 for Unit No 4
• Out to the paddocks of Lower Plenty with a Marketnews favourite Rocco Montanaro of Morrison Kleemand who achieved close to $3m on an Expressions of Interest Campaign for a good home on 7 acres at 75 Cleveland.
• And we round up our selection of high end Easter Sales with a $6M+ sale at Mount Eliza 15 Freemans Road – Michelle Skoglund of Aqua

In summary over Easter the market at this level has not been dead, but definitely subdued – there is increasingly a dampening mood in terms of both buyer and seller confidence. Time will tell if this is a short or longer term phenomenon. Price will play a important part going forward as we seemingly move into more uncertain market conditions – i.e. ones that are not as clear as they have been in the past 2 years since we awoke from the GFC. Overall the market now and in fact all of 2011 has not been strong at the $3m+ level – but there are still enough transactions (especially in Bayside) of sufficient value to avoid holding a wake just yet.

With winter approaching and a fair amount of stock available we think it is a buyers’ market and the future is best described as – “uncertain times”.

Finishing on a positive note our James Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (rentals are improving) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

The Big Issue: Klarity Kris and Architect Adam discuss the big issue of the week – does this market, with prices currently dropping, have elevated risks for buyers ? See what the two have to say by clicking on the live action.

Auction Video: This week Cafe Guy heads to Elwood on what was a big auction day for the Port Phillip area. Watch  the auction video of  18 Normandy Rd (Sutherland Farrelly) by clicking on the live action.

Buyer Masterclass: Double-fronter or two storey, single-fronted cottage? Architect Adam explores this dilemma in this week’s Buyer Masterclass. It’s a great article check it out!

We Only Buy Homes and Happy Mothers Day Mum and in fact to all Mums – we love you all!

“No way mate - this market is fighting back– taking no prisoners today (April 9th).” John Bongiorno. Malvern 54 Stanhope. Bought $3,170,000. 3 bidders.

Week Ending 30th April: Back from a week or two off, this market now, has a fairly clear run till Christmas, with a only brief breaks for a couple of holiday weekends.

Over the next four to six weeks we should see more choice and some reasonable activity (although not expected anywhere near the levels of last year), as the May market is a traditional agent preferred selling time. Why? Well there is a good stretch of time until Queens Birthday weekend to run an uninterrupted campaign. Stock Quality is the unknown.

Come July things will be relatively quiet as there is a general sellers’ feeling (rightly or wrongly) that good homes do not look their best at this time of the year and accordingly a number of high end selling agents take winter holidays in Europe and therefore do not program campaigns to be run in their absence.

In the post Easter week or so there have been ten or more high end sales including the representative  half dozen below

• 15 St Ninians in Brighton for between $8m and $9m – perhaps not a lot more than what is was sold for less than 2 years ago (need to look up sale time to be absolutely sure of date) – Justin Follett of Kay and Burton
• 255 New Brighton for between $5.5m and $6m – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin of Buxton
• 50 Hotham St East Melbourne which had been on the market for at least 6 months for $7million – Paul Richards of Hocking Stuart – on the market for a fair bit of last year and also a failed auction. Nonetheless a reasonable price – not everything the sellers wanted – but more than had been offered at times in the past by buyers. A good result for both parties.
• 150 Clarendon East Melbourne – the Salta apartments saw Anton Wongtrakun deliver another big sale at $5,200,000 for Unit No 4
• Out to the paddocks of Lower Plenty with a Marketnews favourite Rocco Montanaro of Morrison Kleemand who achieved close to $3m on an Expressions of Interest Campaign for a good home on 7 acres at 75 Cleveland.
• And we round up our selection of high end Easter Sales with a $6M+ sale at Mount Eliza 15 Freemans Road – Michelle Skoglund of Aqua

In summary over Easter the market at this level has not been dead, but definitely subdued – there is increasingly a dampening mood in terms of both buyer and seller confidence. Time will tell if this is a short or longer term phenomenon. Price will play a important part going forward as we seemingly move into more uncertain market conditions – i.e. ones that are not as clear as they have been in the past 2 years since we awoke from the GFC. Overall the market now and in fact all of 2011 has not been strong at the $3m+ level – but there are still enough transactions (especially in Bayside) of sufficient value to avoid holding a wake just yet.

With winter approaching and a fair amount of stock available we think it is a buyers’ market and the future is best described as – “uncertain times”.

Finishing on a positive note our James Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (rentals are improving) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Finishing on a positive note our Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (improving rentals as well) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Week Ending 16th April:The $3m action this week was away from auctions.

The drought in the Balwyn Formula – big price, small land, new home – was broken again with Maurice Di Marzio getting 59 Hosken Street, Balwyn North away in the high $3 millions. That’s the third in a week on the back of the two biggies reported last weekend.

Canterbury, 11 Chaucer Close, with Boroondara doyen Peter Mitchell of Marshall White, got the same sort of high $3 millions price.

Hawthorn, Harcourt St, was a hot place to be this week with Nick Ptak getting 79a away for just under $3.4 million (we think) and one of the results of recent times. Peter Vigano of Jellis Craig  got $3.625 million for 42 (we did not see that price coming)

Speaking of good results, Marcus Chiminello got a price in the high $3 millions for 2/264 Walsh St, South Yarra. It’s not our job to talk agents up but in a slow apartment market Marcus has got a number of solid results.

St Kilda West, 10 Loch St, with John Holdsworth sold for $3,650,000.

Andrew McMillan from Benmac got 367 Beaconsfield St, Kilda West away in the $4m to $5m range after a very lengthy campaign (probably due to previous asking prices).

At Auction today 68 Hopetoun Rd,  Toorak with Jellis Craig’s Steve Abbott, sold afterwards for $3.05 million. That was up a few hundred thousand dollars on the last time it sold around a year ago.

Week Ending 9th April: The strongest week this year for the $3m+ Top End market:

South Yarra 43 Marne St: Nicole Gleeson of Kay and Burton: Well over the $12,000,000 quote range making Domain Precinct land values at $8,000 per sqm for the bigger blocks.

Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett also of Kay and Burton: North of $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home that needs some reworking and a tennis court.

While still in Hawthorn Mr Nice Guy and Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (Modern in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both a little down on ambitious asks but nonetheless solid prices for what they were.

But wait there’s more and was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula- new build, small block, overpriced. Well on a technicality were are still credible as it’s neighbouring Kew; but with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million’ish, the death of this market maybe a little exaggerated. However please it is only two sales, but they were biggies.

The news doesn’t stop for sellers there with period home successes at 50 Wattle Valley Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) selling under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000; 54 Stanhope Malvern with Rae Tomlinson also under the hammer for $3,170,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Bayside has recorded a few strong sales as well with 29 Bay Street Brighton (Bert Stewart of Buxton) selling post auction over $3,550,000 and the final result put north facing (no view) Golden Mile land over $3,200 per sq metre. That is a steady as she goes price similar to last year Golden mile (no view) buys. And another $3m+ sale with a strange twist (all non bidders asked to leave) at 40 Drake Brighton (Ian Jackson).

While on land sales 1073 Malvern Road Toorak (Justin Long) passed in at $3,225,000 and a reserve was offered – not taken up – two new bidders appeared and a second auction took place resulting in a sale well over the pass in figure.

Why all this activity? Pass-ins are still languishing in large numbers without much interest. However its all about quality and new stock and buyer confidence. All three things happened this week -

1. buyers felt better in themselves (confidence);
2. buyers felt this week had some real quality offerings (quality)
3. and buyers couldn’t see a lot of stock coming one (limited new stock)

Post Easter is no Buyer lay down misere after today’s results.

BRIGHTON EAST, 6 Northern Ave: Leigh Hallamore (Buxton) gets the ball rolling and finds two bidders in the crowd. Bought under the hammer for $1,290,000

Quiet day for us all this weekend at the million dollar level. Has been a great year for buyers so far, long may it continue. Have a safe and happy Easter and enjoy the time with your family – Kristen.

John Clarkson, Hocking Stuart, Brighton: “Certainly buyers will not feel as dominant post Easter due to stock levels decreasing to a normal level. There has been a fair bit of choice in the first quarter for the market post Christmas. That rush or backlog has disappeared as a result of being sold or withdrawn from the market. There will be a fair balance post Easter. For all the dooms-dayers who are waiting for the market to fall in a hole, they will be disappointed. Bayside sellers can have confidence that as long as schools, Church St shopping, transport and the beach don’t disappear, there will always be demand. For local buyers waiting for a good time to buy competition will continue to come from the leafy suburbs of Albert Park, Middle Park and Elwood. The infrastructure, amenities and family lifestyle will continue to keep demand at a very healthy level for Bayside. Whilst I don’t see a huge spike in prices if buyers see a property that is 7 out of 10, they should consider it very closely. If they are waiting for the market to implode they may regret sitting on their hands!”

BENTLEIGH, 7 Eddys Grove: Nick Renna (Hocking Stuart) searches for bidders and he didn't need to look far. Bought under the hammer $1,312,00, 3 bidders.

Key Point:

The Top End outside Inner East and Bayside is mainly in that $1.5m to $2.2m range and the action this month has been relatively thin on the ground with many agents reporting a lot of homes for sale but with little movement generally.

Agent Q & A: Has the market changed since before Labour Day weekend?
Aaron Silluzio, Barry Plant, Rosanna:“Since the Labour Day weekend there has been a few shudders in the residential market. This has obviously been driven by a serious decline in consumer confidence which has stemmed from the aftermath of the Christchurch Earthquake, directly after the Labour Day weekend the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and of course the Libyan situation which has also caused a flow on effect to oil and ultimately petrol prices. This break in consumer confidence has been a real shame as we personally felt that post Christmas the market had gathered a nice head of steam and was moving forward in the right direction. Having stated this, the stock market is starting to move in the right direction which indicates that consumers are willing to act and hopefully we can start to see a similar result in the property market in the not too distant future.
David Oster, Jellis Craig, Ivanhoe:“I believe the market has seen an increase in stock levels and I’m finding that we are back to being agents.  We are finding more post negotiations, pitting our skill level against a buyer, however we still have 100% success rate for 2011.”

Some of what we have seen in March outside our main $M+ areas is contained below

PRAHRAN, 68 Wrights Terrace: Like many of today’s auctions, this one had good numbers in attendance, but unfortunately no sale for Justin Long (Marshall White), passed in $1,610,000, 1 bidder

Key Points: It’s all about the bigger deals this week:

• Malvern 19 Hamilton – Justin Long – At Auction – $4,357,000
• Malvern 66 Claremont – Iain Carmichael – At Auction – $3,700,000
• Toorak 9 Ross – Justin Long – Auction – over $3,600,000
• Toorak – 3 Teringa – Andrew(s) McCann and Macmillan of Benmac – post last weeks auction – over $3,500,000 – nearly $5000 per sqm for rear south facing land
• Toorak – 611 Toorak Road – Expressions of Interest – Greg Herman of RT Edgar – $3,500,000
• Toorak – 231 Kooyong Road – James Redfern – Post last Saturday’s auction – over $3,500,000
• Malvern East – 127 Finch St – Rob Vickers-Willis – $3,300,000

Agent Q & A

How are stock levels and what will they be like leading up to Easter?

Mark Wridgway, RT Edgar, Toorak: “Stock levels over the next 6-7 weeks leading up to Easter are likely to be above normal. This year Anzac Day falls the Tuesday after Easter Monday which leaves only 3 days of that last week, which happens to immediately follow the school holidays. I can imagine that some people will essentially extend the school holidays to almost 3 weeks. Most vendors will want to see that period through before launching a new campaign, so the option is to get your property onto the market in time for a  9^th April auction date or wait until 21^st May.”

Justin Long, Marshall White, Armadale: “ The 3 weekends leading up to the Labour Day weekend were heavily booked even before Christmas hit us, as those who had purchased in late 2010 made plans to complete their real estate transactions at the earliest opportunity. Those not forced into February action seem to have been delayed until the first few rounds of auctions were played out and, the results having been reasonably encouraging, those that have waited are now finally making their decisions. The long weekend has adversely affected stock levels for March and the first weekend in April as many vendors chose not to have that weekend in their programs but as a result, the 9^th April seems to loom as the BIG weekend before Easter. In summary: expect a late (but strong) pre-Easter run.”

ELSTERNWICK, 12 Brentani Ave: Bill Stavrakis (Biggin & Scott) brings home a solid result in Elsternwick. Under the hammer, $1,485,000, 2 bidders

Agent Q & A:“Do you feel there is currently a big difference in the results of sales of lower end ($1m) properties as opposed to those of higher end ($2m+) homes? Yes or no, and why?”
Bill Stavrakis, Biggin & Scott, Elsternwick:”I believe that the properties on the market between $1,000,000 plus to $2,000,000 plus are in higher demand than before the Christmas break of 2010. Buyers are cautious, but at the same time are prepared to transact if the property and price are right. In relation to the sub million dollar market, the first home buyers and investors are clogging the market with their inability to commit to property purchases. Where this will lead that segment of the market remains to be seen.”

East Melbourne: John Bongiorno reported two very solid sales on behalf of the MCC: 18 Jolimont (sold for $3m – on market $2.3m – 3 bidders and unit 1 @ 2 Jolimont bought for $1.745m – on market 1.3m and 6 bidders.

MALVERN, 26 Cressy St: Andrew McCann (BenMac) watches as Iain Carmichael takes the helm. Passed in $1,560,000, no bidders

Key Points:

• You can only buy what’s on offer, and a 61% clearance rate in last year’s Stonnington terms was a solid start
• The market was only tested in the lower echelons of price and seems unlikely to really be tested at $3m+ for some time as there appears to be minimal action in this price range
• The biggest sale was at 29 Scott Grove, Glen Iris, Gowan Stubbings (Kay & Burton), $3,032,000, 3 bidders

Agent Q & A: How have you found non-auction sales so far this year?
James Connell, Marshall White, Armadale:“So far this year, there has been a good underlying market. We’ve found there is quality stock around and it seems buyers (and sellers) have a little more confidence this side of Christmas, compared to the latter part of last year.”
Peter Bennison, Marshall White, Armadale:“Private sales have been very strong this year.”
John Bongiorno, Marshall White, Armadale:“In fact, we’ve just recorded the greatest number of daily hits on our website.”
Simon Dale, BenMac, Armadale:“Private sales have been strong so far as have auctions. We sold six from six at auction last weekend.”

CAMBERWELL, 7 Bellett St: A mighty crowd of 120 turned out to watch Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig) in action. Passed in, no bidders

Key Points:

• Stonnington outperformed Boroondara in terms of clearance rate
• The top end is not moving with any conviction, and no sales over $3m have been reported to us this year
• Two big weeks ahead will give a greater indication as to the health of Hawthorn and surrounds. Our thoughts with the numbers at OFI’s  and the quality coming up is that this area should be moving through the gears before Labour Day weekend. However, stay tuned as, while it may have just been cobwebs and the agents are reporting differently, what we witnessed today was still a bit sluggish for this usually ever-reliable market (granted quality was iffy)

Agent Q & A:How have you found non-auction sales so far this year?”
Scott Patterson, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn:“It appears that the Boroondara market has picked up where it left off late last year.  We found the market rallied in late December which meant that several properties were sold privately very close to Christmas resulting in less for buyers to choose from in Jan/Feb.  Additionally, we have noticed strong numbers of potential buyers attending open for inspections and they certainly appear to be gravitating towards the properties being auctioned.  Of the private sales we have made so far this yea, most have been to new buyers fresh to the marketplace in 2011.  Last week Jellis Craig sold 80% of its auctions and we expect to do the same this week-end.  Volume is increasing in the next few weeks which will give a better indicator as to the health of the market.  We anticipate auction clearance rates of 60-70% in the next few months which would provide balanced market conditions.”
Tim Heavyside, Fletchers, Camberwell:“Overall, I have found non-auction sales to be solid for the start of the year.  Seasonally, this is a terrific time to sell a property via a ‘private sale’ before the autumn weight of listings flood the market before Easter (late April).  Astute vendors can either realise a passed-in auction (from late last year) or place their home as a fresh listing to tempt the new stream of buyers entering this late summer season and the start to the calendar year.”

The sun was out and so were the spectators - but the bidders were nowhere to be seen. Andrew Stuart (Hocking Stuart) at 280 Beaconsfield Pde, Middle Park. Passed in $4,400,000, crowd of around 80, no bidders

Key Points:

• A big day auction-wise in Port Phillip with more than 20 $m+ properties up for grabs.
• We reported on seven – four of those were bought under the hammer and one shortly after auction.
• The biggest sale was at 107 Richardson St, Albert Park (Oliver Bruce, BenMac) which sold under the hammer for $2,322,000, with 5 bidders.
• The biggest pass in was at 280 Beaconsfield Pde, Middle Park (Andrew Stuart, Hocking Stuart), $4,400,000, no bidders.

Agent Q & A: If you were a buyer, how would you buy a house over the next two months, during the Christmas break?
Sam Gamon, Chisholm & Gamon, Elwood: “If I were a buyer wanting to buy over the Christmas period, I would make myself known to the local estate agents in the areas I want to focus on so I’m front of their mind should any new listings become available. Potentially, there might be more low-key Private Sales available as it’s unlikely we’ll see many auctions until Feb 12 & 19. Some vendors would prefer to sell in January rather than wait until February so it’s important to stay in touch with your agent and for them to keep in contact with you. It’s a two-way street and communication is the key. Start pounding the pavement. Of course, the internet is still paramount when searching for the right property so register for ‘alerts’ and keep an eye out daily. After all, that old saying about the ‘early bird’ still rings true.”

Balwyn 12 Knutsford, The old boy's in a good mood - it must be selling. Tim Derham and the effervescent Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys. Bought under the hammer for $3,520,000. 4 bidders.

Today’s Highlights:

• Balwyn 32 Stephens, Maurice Di Marzio, Bought under the hammer for $3,800,000 – 4 bidders
• Balwyn 12 Knutsford, Tim Derham, Bought under the hammer for $3,520,000 – 4 bidders
• Kew 1 Stawell, Gowan Stubbings, undisclosed Bought after – 2 bidders
• Kew 3-5 Rimington, Scott Patterson, Bought After above $3,650,000 -  2 bidders

Off Market

• Hawthorn 26 Fordholm, Michael Armstrong, Over $5,000,000

Not so Highlights:

• Canterbury 34 Maling, passed in $4,600,000

Agent Q & A: If you were a buyer, how would you buy a house over the next two months, during the Christmas break?
Mark Dayman, Marshall White, Hawthorn: “We acknowledge that the property numbers in The Age and the local paper are reducing each week leading up to Christmas. Subsequently  a number of buyers that have sold first or recently come in from overseas/interstate are still actively looking preferring to buy now and to be settled prior to schools returning in early 2011. Buyers should register their details with an agent or agency they know will be working through the Christmas New Year break. Already most agencies have forward bookings now for February-March and willing vendors receptive to negotiating prior to auction and effecting a sale with the highest possible price shortest possible time frame least amount of stress. Bear in mind that owing to the Spring volume a few good properties have slipped through the cracks and these opportunities should again be pursued.”

Feeling the heat: John Clarkson (Hocking Stuart) at 12 Maroona Rd, Brighton. Bought after for $1,580,000, 1 bidder, crowd of 45

Key Points:

• We covered 8 auctions in Bayside – not one was bought under the hammer but half sold after auction.
• The biggest sale was recorded at 4/23 St Ninians, Brighton (Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton), which was bought for $4,825,000.
• The biggest pass in was at 29 Sussex, Brighton (Greg Costello, RT Edgar), $3,350,000, no bidders

Agent Q & A: If you were a buyer, how would you buy a house over the next two months, during the Christmas break?
Errol Driver, Hodges, Beaumaris:“Assuming we are buying a residential property in the suburbs (not holiday area along the coast) my impression is that there continues to be a growing list of houses for sale, including a fairly high number of passed in auctions. KNOWLEDGE is the key to the subject! Study the recent price trends in the suburbs you are interested in – put the effort into visiting all the open homes offering the requirements you have & follow auction sales results so you can make an informed decision on the amount you are prepared to offer.Forget asking prices & if you have sold & are cashed up understand your money now has REAL purchasing power that wasn’t there early this year. All sellers have different circumstances which won’t be apparent if selling through a good agent, however be prepared to make the offer at YOUR price, in writing and with no conditions and you could be surprised! Perhaps not bargain basement, but a number of very good buys may exist over the break. Good luck & Season’s Greetings!”

Picture of concentration: Tim Fletcher (Fletchers) at 2 Barnsbury Rd, Balwyn. Bought after auction $2,585,000, 1 bidder

Key Points:

• Crowds smaller and less bidders with a clearance rate at 62% – lowish for Boroondara, however there were around 50 auctions over $1 million.
• Hottest market is for the $1,200,000 to $1,600,000 double fronted timber home in need of some work with a market price tag on it.
• Scott Patterson MD of Jellis Craig: Clearance Rate expected around the mid 60% level, but that is normal for this time of the year. The Asian community is complaining about the high Aussie dollar and their market is tracking down. Well credentialed and well-priced homes are going, but those vendors priced a little bit too high are simply not selling. A high ask strategy is nowhere near as successful now as it was this time last year or even earlier this year.

Highlights:

• Kew, 50 Charles, Paul Keane of Jellis Craig – going nowhere for some time then some interest, then – bang: a boardroom auction and a result well north of $4,200,000 was achieved on the night.
• Hawthorn 41 Wattle Road – good home on the market for some time. Bought for well over $5,000,000 also through Paul Keane Jellis Craig
• Balwyn 6 Ropley Laurence Murphy of Hocking Stuart – brand new French provincial believed to be over $3,000,000. The Aussie dollar may be hurting but the market still has a passion for these sorts of homes.

$3m+ not so highlights:

• Hawthorn 5 Yarra: Passed In $4,500,000: Zero Bidders
• Canterbury 35 Logan: Passed In for $2,860,000: Zero bidders

Agent Q & A: In terms of real estate, what has happened this year and what do you expect to happen next year?
Scott Patterson, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn:“2010 started very strongly with healthy demand in February and March.  Sellers realised that this might be their last chance to capitalise on a rising market so they flooded the market in May and June.  Increased volume had an adverse affect on auction clearance rates and we started to see a softening in the market by about June.  School holidays interrupted July and then we had the Federal Election in August which was unresolved for several weeks – again adding to the uncertainty.  Clearance rates dropped back to around 70% compared to 85% in 2009.  September/October saw two football grand finals play out, which meant the predictions of a late Spring were correct.  An interest rate rise on Cup Day and the threat of further increases has dampened enthusiasm and we now see clearance rates hovering around 60% compared to 80% for the corresponding period last year.  On a positive note, properties in quality locations are still attracting strong interest – however it is fair to say that we are noticing less desperation amongst buyers.  Vendors now need to revise their expectations if they are serious about selling this side of Christmas, otherwise the market will go to sleep from December 24 – January 18.  Next year will be ‘steady as she goes’ in my opinion.  We are predicting slow growth rather than the dramatic price increases we have seen in previous years.  A lot will depend on interest rate rises next year as a series of rises tends to affect buyer confidence.”

Grinners are winners: Sam Paynter (Hodges) sells 10 Menzies Ave, Brighton after auction for $2,600,000, 1 bidder

Highlights:

• Hampton’s Golden Triangle continues to perform very strongly with 3 Lorraine Hampton (Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon) over $3,000,000; 23 The Avenue Hampton (David Hart of Buxton) $2,350,000 and fringe there but actually Brighton Beach – 10 Menzies Brighton (Sam Paynter of Hodges) $2,600,000. These, the three buys at this level we reported a few weeks ago plus others says that this is the or close to the hottest “estate” in $M Melbourne right here and now.
• Clearance Rates steady at 1 selling out of 2, or 50%
• Sandringham continues to underperform the area with little action
• 11 sales reported over $1 million in Brighton and Brighton East in the last week – mostly small

Agent Q & A: In terms of real estate, what has happened this year and what do you expect to happen next year?
Scott Hamilton, Buxton, Sandringham:”This year started with a bang. Buyers were bidding furiously at auctions and prices were increasing steadily. Most Bayside properties were selling well ahead of their reserves. Late May to early June buyers started to back off a little bit after a few rate increases in a row. Most good agents recognised this but a number of vendors were still riding the wave from earlier in the year. It is quite evident now that some normality has returned to the market and no matter what an agent or vendor may think, buyers are deciding where they believe the value of a property ought to be. Good agents can direct a buyer’s thinking to a degree and negotiate as hard as we like, but without competition many vendors are failing to meet the market. I would like to think that if interest rates remain as they are, the new selling season will see buyers competing hard at auctions again. People will always want bigger or smaller homes, they will always want to improve their position or their financial situation and they often make the decision to change their circumstances at Christmas. I’m sure we will begin the new year with a bang.”

Price Check:

• Brighton East 11 Clive with Craig Williamson of Buxton.  Bought for $1,350,000 or $1450 per sq metre for land in the Hawthorn Road Tram Terminus area.
• Brighton 52 Carpenter with John Clarkson of Hocking Stuart. Bought for $1,360,000 or $2,810 per sq metre of land in central Brighton. This time last year we had a number of land sales in Central Brighton in Carpenter St and you can see the big holes of development next to the old police station. We reported land, also a corner site, as going for $2437 per sq metre