Roll Up, Roll Up and see if today is a horror movie or not? 40 Fordham Camberwell: David Gillham: Bought After $1,650,000+. 1 bidder

Yes it was a bit of a dog of a day for the market this weekend, but it was not an absolute shocker.  And really, what else could you have expected!

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for $M+ was 52% on the 25 auctions we attended. We have seen worse.

The Weekly Review Bidderman, our demand indicator, was down at just 0.8 bidders per auction. The last time we saw that kind of number was back in 2008 – but hey did you expect a plethora of volcano auctions? Actually, there was not one volcano (4+ bidders) auction in the 25 we covered on Saturday.

We all knew buyers were not going to brave this weekend and who can blame them? This was confirmed by the fact that only 3 of the 25 auctions we covered sold under the hammer – that’s 12% or 1 in 8. Which again re-emphasises that if you do feel inclined to buy a home right now, you need to understand the processes and strategies involved in buying a home outside the auction hammer process.

The Market This Weekend

Who are the unluckiest sellers this year? I think we would all agree those who had their home on the market at 10.30 this Saturday morning. This weekend was always going to be a time of concern for the market, no matter which way you mentally packaged Friday’s stock market news.

And yes, there was some blood on the Colosseum floor. But before you move into a catatonic state about the health (or lack thereof) of Melbourne’s $M+ home market, let’s put this weekend into context.

Firstly, even without the doom and gloom we would have been most surprised to see a strong clearance rate this weekend. The choice of homes on offer was average at best, while good stock is hard to find.

Secondly, buyers, and there do seem to be a few around if you go by last week’s results, are now beginning to see some early Spring stock and some of that is more appealing than what was on offer this weekend.

Thirdly, after every ‘catastrophe’ there is a knee-jerk reaction where people, including buyers, simply find the air a little harder to breathe and things a little harder to do – especially make decisions and take even calculated sensible risks. But we do seem to all get back on the horse at some stage.

Fourthly, as we said last week, right now is pretty much a nothing market – and again this weekend, nothing much happened. But nothing much has happened for several months.

So we’re not apologising or talking it up or down – we’re just saying this weekend’s market was always going to be tough after yesterday’s financial news – and tough it was.

What will next week bring and the week after – who knows?

One thing we don’t know (for sure) is anything involving a short term time line. We can’t say if we are in for a GFC Mark II, something worse than a GFC or no real damage at all in the next six months.

On the flipside, yes it’s true that long term we have good job prospects, solid immigration and a healthy economy etc BUT……

….BUT, as buyers we all want to buy well and at the best time. We would have preferred to have bought a home at November 2008 prices instead of November 2007 prices or July 2011 prices instead of July 2010 prices. However taking that argument down another line, as buyers we would have preferred to buy homes in 2008 at market price rather than 2009 or 2010 at market price.

And you could feel that price was top of mind with almost every bidder or non-bidder this weekend. Is this the right time to buy? Can we get it cheaper? How cheap can we get it?

This almost overpowering mindfog was evident at almost all auctions this weekend and explains why the hammer rate was so poor, at 1 in 8.

So is it OK to buy now? Is this a window of opportunity or the start of the slippery slope?

It’s human nature as buyers to be wanting to get a great deal at any time. We as buyers want to make the best decisions on our needs and maximise our individual long-term emotional and financial outcomes for our family – just as sellers do. But there is wanting and there is making it happen.

Going forward, what will happen is that:

1. Some buyers will panic - We are all a bit circumspect and nervous, but if we become a panicked buyer we are a danger to our family.  The best way to avoid panic is to be clear on what it is that you, as the breadwinner or decision maker, are trying to achieve. What do you want for your family? A home with 4 bedrooms, a good backyard near schools and with a good floorplan in Boroondara or Bayside. Good – well stick to it. The condition of the Greek economy shouldn’t make you now think you want a 2 bedroom home in Epping with no backyard because that is somehow less risky than Hampton or Glen Iris.
2. Some buyers will not learn from history – Think what happened during and post the GFC, during the 90s drop, and during the 70s –  if you are as old as me. If you understand what is happening now you may be able to take advantage of it – even in little ways. It all adds up.
3. Some buyers will act – You can only take advantage of an opportunity if you act. Those that appear to be the wisest of men who pass on everything in life are not that. You can’t look after your family on inaction. Your spouse can’t sleep in your concern and your kids can’t play in your risk avoidance strategies.

Good things to think about when you realise you still need to do something:

Take your time as most sensible buyers have this year. If you see something you like then look at its characteristics: are they what you want and are they any good? If not move on – prices seem unlikely to be going north in a hurry.

Elevate your risk taking in negotiations and go harder on price. Especially if it’s been passed-in for longer than a few days. Providing you don’t have to have it at any cost, push a little harder. It’s not immoral to try for a good deal.

Aim higher – especially if you are above $2m. If you can stomach a bit more debt, then now may be the perfect time to look for something a bit better than what you could have afforded last year.

Marry a doctor or a somebody with equally good cash-flow because over the next few months some bargains may appear and cash flow kings will be able to take advantage of the debt bunnies.

We admit we have a complete bias towards property, so maybe our thoughts are not quite balanced. But maybe that’s why we feel some comfort right now. If the kitchen in stocks is a bit too hot maybe nervous investors could come over and try the relatively stable inner Melbourne housing market. Sure, it’s a bit rough around the edges, but it is solid inside.

The rest of this year is an opportunity for us all – and for some that opportunity will be a time for action, for others a time for reflection and for a few a time for panic.

Each of us is different. Good luck

$3M+ Market
We’ve had a few comments that we haven’t put up a $3M+ market report since May. That’s  been for a good reason – it would have been an almost blank sheet. However there have been some sputters of life from deep within and this could be a sign that the top-end engine is starting to turnover again. From our own company’s point of view we are now involved in 3 dealings after having been bereft of activity for most of winter at this level. Other recent notable sales at this level are:

• A sale in Boroondara this last month at just over $6M – completely off market
• 24 Boxshall St, Brighton (Sam Paynter of Hodges), which has been on the market for a long time and has finally changed hands just under $3M
• 4 Sussex St, Brighton (Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin) sold for a hard to believe $3,775,000. We attended that auction and the result was … well brilliant.
• and while down in Bayside, 2 Tennyson St, Brighton with Jonathan Dixon, after passing in at auction a month or so ago, has just sold for around that pass-in figure and well over $3,000,000
• 12a Harrison Crescent, Hawthorn, which had a rating too low to put up on our site, was sold by Sam Wilkinson of Kay and Burton for over $3,000,000
• Along with 3 Irymple Ave, Glen Iris (Iain Carmichael); 5 Story St, Parkville (Tom Roberts) and 80 South Road, Brighton (Barb Gregory) in the last week, the Top End over $3M is trying to work its way back into some form.

With a couple of big homes due to go to auction next weekend – amongst them 49 Sackville St Kew (James Tostevin); 7 Foote St Brighton (Phillip French of RT Edgar) and 83 Walsh St South Yarra (Peter Bennison and Justin Long) – we will begin to see if there is some air at the higher altitudes as we limp into the footy finals, traditionally a key indicator for activity in the early and late Spring markets at the $3M+ level.

Not everybody was stressed about life. 8 Blackfriars Toorak: Justin Long: Passed In $3,000,000. 0 bidders

Biggest Sale: 80 South Road Brighton: 1 bidder: Bought Afterwards $3,000,000.
On the market just a couple of years ago, this classic, well built modern home was back on the block for auction today. The main road would be an issue but other than that, it is hard to fault. They wanted and got a big ticket last time, and they are wanting towards $3m again. So I’m wondering firstly if it will sell and secondly if there will have been any appreciable price movement since last time. Jack Bongiorno is our master of ceremonies auctioning for the newly created Brighton MW team with Barb Gregory and Kate Strickland. Hebegins in front of a solid crowd of almost 90 and all packed into the front yard. Proceedings are started with a $2,700,000 vendor bid and bidder one joins in at $2,750,000. Half-time break comes and goes and there is no further bidding and so it’s passed in. $3,000,000 Bought after – good result. Just shy of a 10% increase in 2 years. (Mal James)

• 1/23 Washington St, Toorak: Hugh Hardy of Benmac: 2 bidders: Bought for $2,870,000
• 18 Knutsford, Balwyn: Richard Earle; 0 bidders: Bought After $2,730,000

Biggest Pass In: 8 Blackfriars Close, Toorak: Justin Long of Marshall White: Passed in $3,000,000: 0 bidders
Auctioneer Justin Long had a commanding presence as he addressed the group of 45 in attendance.  In his preamble, Mr Long spoke passionately, describing it as a “wonderful, wonderful property” and explained its history.  Mr Long opened with a vendor bid of $3,000,000 and requested $50,000 rises.  Despite his best efforts to entice bidding, all those in attendance stood as spectators and the property was passed in at $3,000,000. (Kate Agnoleto)

Bidderbuzz Auction: 35 Nelson Road, Camberwell: Michael Hingston of Jellis Craig: Bought $1,665,000: 3 bidders.
This was always going to be an interesting auction, and I was looking forward to it. The property is quite a good one – north facing rear, on good land size within close proximity to Camberwell Junction. Fortunately the rained stayed away and Michael Hingston (backed up by Steven Abbott) did a good job directing traffic in front of around 70 people – and you could sense there were a buzz here. Opening on a vendor bid of $1,350,000 it did not take too long for the crowd to get involved and two bidders fought things out in $10,000 increments to see the property on the market at $1,460,000 – a good reserve I thought. Bidder 3 entered the fray and all of sudden this auction was off and running. At $1,600,000 the auction seemed like it was coming to end yet two bidders (one on the phone, that often looked out of the running a number of times and in the end finally ran out of patience and/or money – how often do we see that?) went tit-for-tat and the auction finished at $1,665,000. Good result for the vendor here and a professionally run campaign by Michael Hingston. (Adam Woledge)

Buyer Masterclass: What to look for to see if you are going to have choice. Also reprinted  in Melbourne’s Million Dollar magazine The Weekly Review.

We only buy (good) homes

Yes they still sell homes at $3,000,000. 80 South Road Brighton: Jack Bongiorno, Maddie Kennedy and Barb Gregory: Bought After $3,000,000. 1 bidder

HAMPTON, 56 Linacre Rd: Come on! Just one more! Mark Earle (Buxton) does his best to squeeze every last bid from the crowd. Bought under the hammer for $1,650,000, 2 bidders

Key Points:

• Clearance Rate for quality homes was stronger than our stats show today
• If you went to auction in Brighton, Brighton East or Hampton today you had a good chance of selling with clearance rates 81% (13 from 16). Further down the bay like Sandringham and Beaumaris really struggled.
• Hampton 7 Raynes Park Road with Stephen Wigley Hodges recorded a strong $2m plus result and a volcano (4 or more bidders) – a bit of a rarity for that neck of the woods – $2,204,000.
• Land Price Check with 29 Bay Street Brighton (Bert Stewart of Buxton) selling post auction over $3,550,000 and the final result put north facing (no view) Golden Mile land at over $3,200 per sq metre. That is a steady as she goes price similar to last year Golden mile (no view) buys. 7a Dawson with Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon confirmed this price by selling 762 sqm of irregular land for $2,500,000 at auction – almost identical psqm prices.
• And another $3m+ sale with a strange twist (all non bidders asked to leave) at 40 Drake Brighton (Ian Jackson).

Agent Q & A : How does current pricing compare with the same time last year?

Robin Parker, RT Edgar, Brighton: “The hot topic at the moment amongst many in the market is “what are prices doing”? Well, the short answer is it’s steady. Certainly the less attractive , or the inferior positioned properties, are finding it tough. However if you weigh up the prices of  desirable homes in desirable suburbs in desirable streets,compared to this time last year, then you start to realise it’s  “steady as she goes”. So if it feels right, if the times right, then go for it.”

Scott Hamilton, Buxton, Brighton: “Pretty similar.”

What are you talking about? - course the market's OK! St Kilda East 239 Alma Road: Phillip Kingston: Bought for $1,500,000: 3 bidders (Photo Kate Agnoleto)

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate on the 31 auctions we covered was 58%.

Bidderman, our demand indicator of average bidders per auction, had a small rise to 1.6 bidders per auction, in part due to four volcanoes (strong auctions) including one 7 bidder auction in 28 Barrington St Kew.

These figures indicate that the market has now cooled – not frozen or falling apart, just cooled. That means we have moved into a buyers’ market, perhaps until Easter and possibly until Spring.

Well-priced homes are still selling. And there have been some surprising above-expectation results, such as 28 Barrington Kew (Glen Coutinho) which sold for $2,230,000 and, last week,Victor Road Kew (James Tostevin) at $4.1 million. But if the market doesn’t agree with initial pricing then it’s a slow, torturous journey to get a result. See our special Pass-Ins and Stales Report below.

This week we also look at the returns of serve on The Economist’s article as the ‘Experts’ hit back against the “Overpriced” headlines of last week.

This Weekend’s Market Summary:

This weekend in most places, except Boroondara, there was limited $M+ stock on offer at auction. The individual council clearance rates we report on in our market wraps could be distorted due to a) lack of auctions and b) lack of overall quality in those auctions. But this is not to imply a lack of stock in general – there are high levels of $M+ stock available across the board and Boroondara in particular is almost awash with homes on the market.

Looking specifically for a moment at Boroondara (Kew, Hawthorn, Canterbury and Camberwell), while this market may be a little out of kilter with the rest of Melbourne in terms of auction numbers, in the past few years it is a market that has shown the strongest resilience against negativity. It was affected by the GST for the shortest time, and has had the biggest price increases since. This weekend too it seemed to have a little oomph and we expect the clearance rate for Boorondara $M+ homes to be in the high 50s to low 60s.

But it does have a fight on its hands right now, with the main demand drivers (overseas buyers) reducing greatly in activity and supply to the market continuing to arrive week after week. Which means that buyers who can look beyond the headlines will find opportunities, and with the right strategies you should be in a position to push back a little against the seemingly never ending sellers’ market.

The next few weeks will be better in terms of auction quality in the top of the Top End in Boroondara. As long as those properties sell and the clearance rates stay stable, and if new stock reduces post Easter, we could move back to a balanced market. But if stock continues to come on in big numbers then the market will almost certainly remain cool with a significant change in demand sentiment.

Most of the $M+ homes on offer that sold this weekend were in the early $1 million range.

Bayside, Port Phillip, Stonnington have been quiet, with only a handful of sales in the post auction wash up from March 19th  and likewise at auction this weekend. In Port Phillip this is understandable as the Grand Prix completely extinguishes the market for almost a month. Why auction numbers are down in Brighton, Toorak and Malvern is not completely obvious – well not to us anyway. April 9th is shaping up as a Super Saturday of some sorts with almost 120 auctions in Boroondara and Stonnington combined. $M+ auctions in Bayside are still light on at the top of the Top End with mainly $1 million to $2 million homes on offer for the next few weeks leading into Easter. Most of the top of the Top End in Bayside is not going to auction.

Agent thoughts: Has the market changed since before the Labour Day weekend?
Chris Barrett, Marshall White, Hawthorn:“There have been a lot of people in the media talking about a negative change in the market since Labour day weekend, I however have found this to be unsubstantiated. As long as vendors prices are realistic and the property is presented well vendors can expect solid interest in their home.”
John Clarkson, Hocking Stuart, Brighton:“Good properties near local attractions and amenities, schools, shopping and the beach are still attracting a high level of enquiry.  Since Labour Day weekend the message is clear: If you are realistically priced you have a very good chance of selling . If you are above market perception, enquiry is reduced to a trickle.”  * For John’s full comments please see the Bayside weekly wrap.

James Special Report: Pass-Ins and Stales – The Autumn overhang build up.

We went back and re-examined all the auctions we reported on this year in 2011 and we revisited all the pass-ins, using still advertised on the net to determine their still for sale status. Please note that the table below is only connected with PASS-INS, not the homes we reported as bought before, at or just after auction on the day.

The table does make for interesting reading on the fate of a home that the market does not consider to be priced correctly at auction.

The table below shows Adjusted Clearance Rates comparing”On the Day” Clearance Rates with “On the Day plus Bought since”. Back in February 19 and 26 Pass-ins were taken up fairly quickly. However the most interesting stat is the lack of take up on Passed-in homes over the last two weeks of auctions: only 3 in 26.

• 1 of the 13 unsolds from the March 5th pass-ins and
• 2 of the 13 from the March 19th pass-ins.

This we feel confirms the view that the $M+ market started the year as balanced, but around Labour Day took a cooling direction.

What's happening Nick? Bentleigh 7 Eddys: Bought $1,312,500: 3 bidders. (Photo: David James)

James Big Issue: Agents claiming there are 100% Clearance rates in this market are just as misleading as saying the market is in freefall – both are far from the truth. Klarity Kris and Architect Adam cover it in the James Big Issue Video. Here is a summary of what they say.

• Still some surprising results. Two in particular, both in Boroondara, that stand out are Victor Avenue in Kew with James Tostevin – which sold for a hard to believe $4,100,000. Nic Franzman, Mark Dayman and Nic Ptak also from Marshall White’s result at 22 Stawell St Kew for $3,300,000. That was also a most surprising result
• We are hearing from agents 100% clearance rates – mainly due to agents feeling they need to respond to the Negativity of The Economist’s article and the Earthquakes, which for the moment have contributed to dampening demand.
• An interesting stat is that only 3 of the 26 homes we reported as passed in after auction in the last two weeks of auctions have since sold.
• We could say that 3 from 26 is reflective of the market strength – a far cry from the 100% Clearance Rate stats, BUT 3 from 26 while true, is also misrepresenting the market just as is reporting 100% clearance rates
• The market was in a balanced state pre Labour Day and as expected it is now going into a cooling phase until Easter due to increased stock levels and drop in demand intensity.

The message for buyers

• You have choice in the $3m+ range but there are still a few surprisingly strong results
• You will still have to compete relatively strongly if the home is good and well priced in that $1m to $1.5m range
• And the middle range say circle $2m to $2.5m is a bit of moving beast – the trend is not crystal clear to us at this stage.

Click on the JAMES BIG ISSUE video with Architect Adam and Klarity Kris in the middle of the home page

Media Monitor: Are Melbourne homes overpriced?

The case for being overpriced arose from The Economist’s article – which we reported on last week.  And now this week the case against those seemingly extreme overpriced by 56% headlines.

Rob Brooker head of economics from the NAB

1. Current events such as floods and Japan are affecting Melbourne short term, but long term our fundamentals are very strong.
2. Not suggesting prices are going to increase rapidly as affordability is hard pressed right now but we do have a shortage of housing stock.

His comments can be found in the excellent Kay and Burton report – sure it’s a selling tool but we listen to the expert commentary each time it’s on It’s well produced, they have credible experts and it’s relevant to our high end Melbourne market. Check it out, at least the expert comment stuff. The home fluff afterwards is up to you: http://www.kayburton.com.au/kayburtonreport

Paul Bloxham – HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, and a former RBA economist savages The Economist’s article stating “it’s too naive to be useful”. His main points in the Business Spectator are

1. We have an undersupply in inner city areas (totally agree with this comment)
2. Our stock is very high quality and has improved considerably over the last 20 years contributing to the increases in price paid (totally agree with this comment)
3. Very strong and improving economy (beyond our level of expertise but sounds good)

For the full article http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Australian-property-prices-housing-bubble-pd20110317-F24WP?OpenDocument&src=sph This was supplied by Al Craig of Jellis Craig – thank you.

‘Round the Grounds Headlines:
Boroondara- Some solid results but the trend is down under weight of stock numbers.
Bayside- Little movement on a lot of the recent Auction pass-ins
Stonnington- Small numbers of $M+ auctions today – although plenty of Top End non auction stock available
Port Phillip-With the Grand Prix – only 4 key $M+ auctions – 3 sold
More detailed analysis on our Weekly Local Council Market Wraps

Biggest Sales we can report:

• Templestowe, 9 Edwin: On the market since October of last year with Jeremy Tyrell of Fletchers. Has been bought for in excess of $4,700,000
• Richmond 37 Docker: Ken Griffith of Jellis Craig. Bought at auction, $3,300,000 – $3,500,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson Grove: Michael Lui of Marshall White. Bought after auction $3,600,000 – $3,800,000
• Toorak 17 Lansell, Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys. On the market since December of last year

Biggest Sale we covered after auction: 44 Mary St Hawthorn, Antony Woodley of Marshall White. Above $2,700,000 (Undisclosed): Bought after auction, 1 bidder

Biggest Sale we covered under the hammer: 28 Barrington Ave, Kew, Glen Coutinho (Hocking Stuart), Under the hammer $2,230,000, 7 bidders (WOW)
“This Kew property did attract a crowd of 80 people, with quite a few potential buyers in the mix. The auctioneer, Glen Countinho, had to field bids from a whopping seven different bidders! Despite the light rain, the flow of the auction was quite amazing and reached the final amount of $2,230,000 before the hammer came down.” (Sonia Matmati)

Biggest Pass In: 68 Studley Park Rd, Kew, Passed in, $3,700,000
“A very pretty setting for an auction. Standing on an elevated embankment, auctioneer Richard Earle literally oversaw proceedings. He began by highlighting the virtues of this property with energy and detail. No bids came forth, however, so it was passed in for $3,700,000.”

Auction Video: This week i’ts down to Brighton with Klarity Kris at 22 Oakwood Ave, a Hocking Stuart auction with Peter Kennett. Click on the live action.

Please Note: we always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be videoed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

Buyer Master Class: Klarity Kris discusses what’s necessary when buying a home when there are kids in the picture. Is it double storey single fronted or single storey double fronted!

Copyright: Mouldy Bread Picture from ChemistryWorldBlog.

We Only Buy Homes

If you're looking for something that doesn’t need a thing done to it, you could have done a lot worse than the house at 109 Willis St, Hampton, which sold recently for $1.88 million

The inner suburbs of Bayside, such as Elwood, Albert Park and Port Melbourne, are great places to live when you are footloose and child-free. But what if you’ve got plans to have kids down the track?

Being able to walk to the local Turtle cafe in Elwood and take a short tram ride on No 79 through Richmond to St Kilda may be worth the sacrifice of a tiny backyard, or having to walk up three flights of stairs, or parking out in a busy street. But when you’ve got a tiny baby or toddlers to think about, that inner urban environment mightn’t seem quite so charming. And once those littlies turn into teenagers, your main desire might be to put as much room between them and you as you can.

Does that mean you have to move right out to the ‘burbs though? After all, you’ve established a life in your suburb, you’ve probably got friends there and maybe family nearby, as well as shops and other facilities you’re familiar with. And those inner suburbs are always going to be in demand, so a house there may well be a good investment.

Inner-city family living depends how much you’ve got to spend and what you’re prepared to trade off. Family homes on a decent-sized block come at a premium in places like Richardson St, Middle Park, Chomley St, Prahran and Addison St, Elwood precincts. So if you want to stay close in, you may need to make a compromise between land size or quality: between a house on a family-sized block that needs work to get to a liveable standard, or a better quality house on a smaller block.

Each option has its drawbacks – living through a renovation can be stressful, especially when children are in the picture; and what might seem cosy when the kids are small could become unbearably cramped when they grow into teenagers. Relocating is another option, but that can be expensive and unsettling too.

Then there’s the question of whether you’d be better off with double storey single-fronter or a single storey double-fronter. For young children, a single-level double-fronted probably works best – but once you’ve got hormonal teenagers, you might crave the bedroom separation of a double-storey home.

Even if it seems years ahead, you might also want to be thinking about schools. Living near your children’s schools has the benefit not just of reducing their travelling time to school, it also means they are going to be nearer their friends and after-school activities. As a parent, especially if you’re both working, the last thing you want to be doing is forever taxi-ing your kids halfway across the city. This is one of the reasons why suburbs like Brighton and Malvern and Camberwell are popular family suburbs – generous land sizes, pleasant quiet streets, good public transport and close to schools.

So let’s say you’ve got $2 million to spend and you want a family home – what are your options?

112 Ruskin Street ELWOOD | James Home Rating (718/1000)

If you definitely wanted to stay somewhere like Elwood, for under $2 million you’d be looking at a place like one we rated recently on James Home Ratings. 112 Ruskin Street was in a great position on one of Elwood’s premier canal streets, and on a good sized block for the area at 507sq metres. It came in at $1.75 million. The house needed a bit of tarting up, but after that it could work okay for a few years with a small family. If you wanted to expand, you’d probably need to go upstairs, unless you’re prepared to lose a lot of that backyard. But that could work well for dealing with the teenage years.

Then again if you were prepared to leave the buzz and lights of the inner city behind, say to Brighton or Hampton, you could see that $2 million go a lot further.

39 Regent Street BRIGHTON EAST | James Home Rating (749/1000)

Take a house like that at 39 Regent Street, Brighton East which sold for just on $2 million late last year. On a north-facing block of 900 square metres, and set on one of Brighton East’s premier streets, one house down from the park, this was a well-laid out family home with a huge backyard and pool. All the living areas looked out over the backyard, great for when you’ve got littlies, but the layout of the house – with the bedrooms up the front – means it will also be handy for when the kids get older and you need some separation. This place will work for some years, and, if you decide to do the big renovation, you’ve got a lot of space to work with.

If you’re looking for something that doesn’t need a thing done to it, you could have done a lot worse than the house at 109 Willis St, Hampton, which sold recently for $1.88 million.

109 Willis Street HAMPTON | James Home Rating (780/1000)

This was a beautifully renovated, family size period home, close to the action of Hampton Street, schools and transport. The backyard wasn’t huge, but the house was fantastic for kids – from littlies through to teenagers – with four big bedrooms, a good separate kids wing upstairs, complete with rumpus room.

So under $2 million does give you plenty of choices. Whether you stay in closer to town, or move out a suburb or two, the important thing is to understand the trade-offs, and what they may cost you and your family over the long term – in terms of money, time and happiness. Go in with your eyes open and you’ll make decisions you’re less likely to regret.

51 Murray Street, PRAHRAN: This original double-fronted Victorian home has been well renovated and extended to the rear and well suits modern living. Bought under the hammer at auction on 19th June 2010 for $3.74M with 4 bidders.

More than a hundred and twenty years since they were built, Victorian-style homes continue to rate highly among homebuyers in Melbourne. Why is that?

Let’s take the example of the double-fronted Victorian at 11 Primrose Street, Prahran, scheduled to go to auction on March 19. It has a lovely symmetrical facade and good building bones – a wide central hallway leading to a large open plan living area at the rear. The ceilings are high and, because of this, the house sits prominently up from the street.

And though it is beautifully renovated to the rear of the house, with a lovely light spacious living area opening onto the back garden, the renovation work cannot be seen from the front.

It is this ability to adapt Victorian-style houses to a modern lifestyle without compromising their original facade and character that makes them keep and grow their value so well, where many other home styles do not. It’s not just about complying with heritage requirements: a Victorian facade gives a house its all-important emotional appeal to buyers, and underpins its capital growth. The best and most sought-after streets in Melbourne are often the ones with original homes in uniform character.

One of the key features about Victorian homes is that they traditionally have big formal rooms at the front, with all the service areas, such as kitchen and laundry, at the back, well away from the living and entertaining areas. What that means today is that you can easily demolish the back of the home and put on a new living area. If the ceiling heights are retained throughout the renovation, the rear new spaces can often be very light and bright. And because only the front portion of the house is retained, updating the house for energy efficiency is relatively easy.

That flexibility translates into big dollars. Take 51 Murray Street, Prahran, a beautiful Victorian with a stunning ultra-modern two-storey rear renovation that would have cost several hundred thousand dollars. But this is the kind of house worth spending that kind of money on. James Home Ratings scored it at a whopping 926 out of 1000.

43 Motherwell Street, SOUTH YARRA

Going to auction last year, the property, which had been quoted at $2.9 million plus, sold for $3.74 million after furious bidding between four bidders, which is twice the Bidderman^TM we currently see in the $million plus auction market.

Unrenovated Victorians are just as highly sought after. A Victorian at 43 Motherwell Street, South Yarra that went to auction late last year had a beautiful ornate facade, but needed some serious work. On auction day, seven bidders battled it out to push the original quote price of $1.3 million to $1.86 million.

Compare that to houses of a more recent era, from the 1930s onwards. Even though this was a time where houses were beginning to incorporate mod cons such as electric kitchens and internal laundries, their layout doesn’t work that well for our modern lifestyle. We like to have living and entertaining areas opening onto the back garden – but, until the 1980s, houses tended to be designed with living areas and kitchens towards the front or middle of the house, which makes it difficult and expensive to make structural changes.

11 Olive Street, HAMPTON

The property at 13 Olive Street, Hampton is a good example. Built in the 1950s, the house is an average size but the block of land is generous. Like many homes of this era, the house has a tricky floorplan. It lacks a wide central hallway, and the flow through the house is indirect and a little confusing. The bedrooms are relatively small and ceiling heights are low – around 2.7m, compared to 3.3m for the Primrose Street house.

Added to this is the fact that the facade is basic and has no real redeeming features, which means there is little or no emotional attachment from a buyer’s perspective. That lack of an attractive facade also means that houses in streets from this era are often part of an ever-changing streetscape – there is generally a lot of building activity happening or about to happen, bringing the noise and annoyance of a constant construction site and the potential risks down the track in terms of privacy.

The house might be cheaper to buy in the first place but, unlike the classic Victorian in a street of other similarly gracious facades, it is unlikely to keep and grow its value over the years.

Will we see last year's crowd numbers return for the opening of the 2011 auction season this weekend? Find out at marketnews.com.au on February 19th at 6pm.

Welcome to Million Dollar Melbourne in 2011

With the Auction Season Opener hitting us between the eyes on February 19, we know that the big question for buyers, sellers and agents is: What is going to happen in 2011?

The feeling in late 2010 was that the market was cooling and we shared that view on price – but we did not share that view on activity. The December market finished quite strongly activity wise.

What’s been happening so far in 2011?

During the last week in Jan, I personally went to 10 homes over $1million in Boroondara (Kew, Hawthorn, Balwyn, Canterbury etc). I was a little surprised at the solid numbers of people inspecting at all opens.

This past weekend (the first full one in February) I focused on Bayside, mainly Brighton, and it was very quiet, very different – with very few people.  The exceptions were 62 Dendy St (David Hart) – a new home on a busy street; a big home at 33 Middle Crescent (Campbell Cooney) and a great little home at 26 Moffat  (David Wilson). Why this last one hasn’t flown out the door yet I don’t know – we gave it a rating over 800. The other seven opens were poorly attended.

Flooding may have been one reason for the reduced activity in Bayside – this was only a few hours after that incredible rain. There were a number of cancelled opens due to inundation (a word we are hearing all too often at the moment) of garages.

Even so there is still plenty happening at Bayside’s Top End. 33 Chatsworth Brighton with 1300 sqm of absolute beachfront has just sold (with Stewart Lopez and Ian Jackson of Kay and Burton) for an undisclosed sum (we reckon around $12 million). And another property on the Golden Mile beachfront at Shandford Ave, with about 600 sqm, reportedly sold for north of $7 million with Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon. So  Bayside Top End is not exactly dead yet.

Next week we have a full book of inspections at quality homes on and off market in Stonnington. Look out for our reports.

So back to the season opener on February 19. This will be the first real public test of the auction market. What sort of stock numbers are out there at the moment?

Last year we used 100 auctions as the definition of a big Saturday. We had four of them in a row at the end of the year, after a very slow start to Spring caused by the election and then the election result uncertainty.

This February 19 sees 74 auctions scheduled – a solid start without setting the world on fire. It is February 26 that provides us with our first real 2011 benchmark with over 120 homes under the hammer. We think that weekend will be the first of about a dozen benchmark auction days we will have through 2011..

So what are the results we are looking at and what will they mean?

Bidderman, our bidders per auction indicator, is an important guide of demand. With Bidderman dropping to around 1 late last year we saw prices drop. A similar number on the first Super Saturday will not be a good sign for sellers especially because there is good stock quality on both auction days (hence no excuses), so a low Bidderman will indicate a genuine lack of interest. If that were to continue we would definitely see a drop in prices. Of course it will be a different result if Bidderman averages more than 2 bidders per auction.

The other important measure is clearance rates. These strengthened towards the end of last year –  not because buyers went berserk but because sellers were forced to meet the diminished market conditions. We had a “strongish” late market because of seller flexibility.

What will the clearance rate numbers mean? If the clearance rates at for these two auction Saturdays are in the 50% range we would consider the market to be soft, marking the beginning of a buyers’ market. If clearance rates are between 60 and 70% for both weekends then it’s fairly balanced. If the clearance rate is around or more than70% then the market noise would be strong and, depending on stock levels going forward, prices may move upwards.

CAV slackens off on Conflict Of Interest issue

One item of news that has snuck under the radar is Consumer Affairs slackening off of the old Section 55 of the Estate Agents Act. This set out a rigorous process in cases where agents want to buy vendors’ homes that are being handled by their own agency, for instance where a Hocking Stuart agent is buying a Hocking Stuart advertised property. Consumer Affairs has severely diluted the strength of the legislation by saying it no longer requires an independent valuation and that an unqualified representative can sign off like a lawyer or an accountant.

This dilution is dangerous and is being driven by either ignorance or laziness on the part of CAV. Selling agents are not asking for it; in fact many ethical agents abhor CAV actions in this matter. We all need checks and balances.

The Consumer watchdog has abrogated its responsibilities, leaving vulnerable old ladies and others to be taken for a ride.

We don’t think agents should be allowed to buy a property handled by the agency they work for at all – there is just too much conflict of interest. But if the law and CAV allows this to continue there MUST be rigorous checks and balances in place to protect the vulnerable.

Imagine if the police weakened their stance on fraud because they wanted to streamline their paperwork. This is not good enough CAV.

On a lighter note, over this year 2011 we will be bringing you even more information, more sold results, more stats, and more detailed analysis.

We will also be back to the job we love most – buying great properties for our clients. After one week back, we’ve already made our first client home purchase for a property in Thomas St Hampton. After six weeks away with the kids  - we need to get our sanity back. So bring on those auctions.

Buy Well.

THE LEOPARD: Auctioneer Jason Scillio watching, thinking, testing, watching. 1 Stawell Kew bought afterwards for an undisclosed amount. 2 bidders.

At 6pm on Saturday the final James $M+ Clearance rate for the year on the 35 auctions we covered was 69%. You may be interested to remember that back in our first Marketnews report for 2010 it was 83%. Those figures point to the year that was.

Bidderman, our demand indicator, was a strong 2.1 bidders per auction – which only confirms what those in the market know: we have had a bounce and that while the hot market has continued to cool, it has not lost all its warmth on the good homes. Our first market news in February 2010 had Bidderman at 3.0.

This Weekend’s Market:
This weekend the market continued its bounce which began two weeks ago. Bidders were there to meet those sellers who chose to meet the market. They were even prepared to fight a little harder than they were in October. Maybe it’s the need for buyers to be in a home by Christmas or maybe it’s the need for sellers to have money in the bank at Santa time – or probably a bit of both, which is normal for this time of the year. The market was in a bit of trouble a few weeks ago following Super Saturday and something had to give. And something has: sellers have given. Which is why the market has bounced in the last fortnight and is looking healthier. Sellers are now pricing their homes to meet the market. They are listening to their selling agents and they are getting the job done. In return buyers are responding, especially when a good home is placed on the market at a reasonable price. Yes, that reasonable price is 5% below September’s reasonable price and maybe 10% below April’s. But it’s still about the same as this time last year and that is how the market works. It goes up and it goes down and it does that every week on every type of property in every type of market. It’s just the median price stats and some media commentators which encourage the uninitiated to think property is a slow moving beast. It’s not. Footnote: over the long term the property market goes up more than it goes down.

Meet the market – what does that mean?
While our focus is homes over $1 million, many of our purchases are over $2 and $3 million. We also have an investment division – headed up by Valuer David McMillan. This weekend we witnessed a great example of a product that met the market and one that didn’t. They were a kilometre apart and finished around the same price – circa $850,000. Both had competent agents managing their campaigns, both have 2 bedrooms.

• Home 1: 1/45 Thanet Street Malvern with Tim Bennison, had 7 bidders and sold for $880,750.
• Home 2: 102 Sutherland Road Armadale, had no bidders and passed in on a lone vendor bid at $850,000.

The market embraced one home and completely rejected the other.

What to do now?
With basically one weekend of auctions left and two weeks of private sales and off-markets, you basically have around ten more sleeps to find what you want – or sit back, relax and wait till just after Australia Day 2011 for a burst of new stock (hopefully).

Try and make good decisions not emotional ones. If you have to rent then so be it, it’s better to rent than buy badly. But good decisions also involve reading the market and it has stepped up a bit so we do not recommend being too cute on price. Sure, don’t overpay, but don’t be too cute either.

We have bought eight homes in the past eight days – five of them outside the auction hammer. Highlights include the purchase of Munro St Armadale post auction, Kyarra Street Sandringham off-market, and Avenue Road Camberwell before auction. As well we have had solid new enquiry. So internally and externally we are seeing market indicators that point to a bounce. As we at Marketnews leave you for the year we think the market could well be in a healthier and more sustainable shape than it was when we first reported to you in 2010, just 10 short months ago. Let’s hope that is good news for 2011.

Auction in a Garden: Tim Derham, a rose amongst the thorns, passes in to the third bidder for $2,970,000, 4 Mathoura Toorak.

$3m+ market

While the highlights point to a number of successes in the $3m+ market there have also been a number of pass-ins. Which suggests that this market too is cooling or cooled and now seems balanced and healthy and this week has a bit of pep again.

This Weekend’s Highlights:

• Brighton 4/23 St Ninians, Stewart Lopez  Bought at auction for $4,825,000
• Balwyn 32 Stephens, Maurice Di Marzio, Bought under the hammer for $3,800,000 – 4 bidders
• Armadale 17 Denbigh, Justin Long, Bought under the hammer for $3,890,000 – 4 bidders
• Balwyn 12 Knutsford, Tim Derham, Bought under the hammer for $3,520,000 – 4 bidders
• Kew 1 Stawell, Gowan Stubbings, undisclosed Bought after – 2 bidders
• Kew 3-5 Rimington, Scott Patterson, Bought After above $3,650,000 -  2 bidders
• Malvern 376 Glenferrie, Iain Carmichael of Benmac passed in $4,300,000 and bought after $4,415,000 – 0 bidders

Off Market

• Hawthorn 26 Fordholm, Michael Armstrong, Over $5,000,000

Not so Highlights:

• Canterbury 34 Maling, passed in $4,600,000
• Brighton 29 Sussex (this seems to be for sale each year), passed in for $3,350,000 – 0 bidders
• Middle Park 280 Beaconsfield, passed in $4,400,000 – 0 bidders
• Toorak 83 Clendon, passed in – 0 bidders

*For more $3m+ results please go to our weekly updated $3m+ section

Bidderbuzz Auction: 43 Motherwell St, South Yarra, Joseph Allan (Chisholm & Gamon); Bought under the hammer, $1,860,000, 7 bidders
“As I rocked up you could feel a number of people had come to play – and play they did under Joseph Allan’s direction. On the market at $1,400,000. 7 bidders, all with a variety of techniques and wallet sizes provided some sparkling entertainment until there was only one left at $1,860,000. This home needed some serious work. Sorry – did I hear somebody say the market was gone?” (Mal James)

Biggest Sale: 17 Denbigh Rd, Armadale, Justin Long (Marshall White); Bought under the hammer, $3,890,000, 4 bidders
“On a magnificent day in Melbourne, auctioneer Justin Long left it to the energetic crowd for a starting bid. Within a few seconds an opening bid was made from a gentleman in the crowd for $3,300,000, which was quickly followed by a bid $25,000 higher. With four separate parties vying for the Armadale home, the price flew past $3,500,000, then $3,600,000, then $3,700,000, and finally slowed at $3,850,000. Mr. Long extracted the maximum from the bidding parties, managing to squeeze out a final bid of $3,890,000 from one very interested gentleman, and the property was sold at that price. All in all, a very well conducted auction with 80 or so people in attendance, and all participating parties walking away very satisfied.” (Daniel Ehrenreich)

Biggest Pass In:280 Beaconsfield Pde, Middle Park, Andrew Stuart (Hocking Stuart); $4,400,000; no bidders
“A large crowd of 80 sought refuge from the hot sun under the shade of the trees scattered on the nature strip.  In his preamble, auctioneer Andrew Stuart spoke enthusiastically about the property, the ‘outstanding lifestyle’ and it being in ‘Melbourne’s greatest location’.  Mr Stuart looked to the group for an opening bid, but all remained silent, so he opened with a vendor bid of $4,400,000.  Despite Mr Stuart’s best efforts there was no bidding on the day and the property was passed in at $4,400,000.” (Kate Agnoleto)

Market News TV
This week’s video auctions are at 25 Bateman St, Hampton with James Paynter (Hodges) and 19 Ferrars Place, South Melbourne with David Wood (Hocking Stuart). This week Gina, whom many of you would know as she co-ordinates all our new clients, and Jen, our Market News Co-ordinator, step in for Klarity Kris and Adam the Architect – click on the live action this Sunday.

*Please note: We always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be filmed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

June 2010: Our favourite Pic for 2010: Susan McGlashan (right) of Bennison Mackinnon leads some very happy buyers inside for the sign up of 2/9 Shipley South Yarra. Bought under the hammer $2,195,000. 2 bidders. Strong.

Summary of 2010

Early 2010 started where 2009 left off, with sellers successfully getting buyers to accept their courageous asking prices, and buyers only too happy to hop on board the train, no matter the price.

Why was that?  After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis many buyers had feared further falls. Instead, by the end of 2009 the market had recovered what it lost in the GFC – and then some. And it seems buyers who missed out in 2009 were putting their hands up at auction with a sense of urgency and even panic, determined to get on the train this year.

For sellers this meant champagne and truffles, a situation that continued until Anzac Day when the market turned sharply downwards. It seems that both buyers and sellers realised that while the property market was booming, the economy – and especially the world economy – wasn’t. The Greek economy was in collapse, the Dow Jones went into a slide, and here interest rates started rising. Sellers decided it was time to rush their home onto the market to make hay while the sun still shone. But buyers were already taking a more guarded approach and were no longer prepared to pay big prices.

Properties were increasingly being passed in, adding to an already substantial overhang of stale unsolds. Where previously the market had been feeding on buyer panic, now it began to slip down on buyer apathy. The market increases of November 2009 to April 2010 were wiped off within a fortnight or so, cutting prices by around 10%.

April 2010: Strange. Very strange. Yes Glen we can see you, but check out the guy to the right. I'm not sure if he was there for marketing or to revive injured buyers. Maybe he will be mandatory at all auctions soon. Camberwell: 52 Athelstan Road: Glen Coutinho. Passed In.

A chilly winter saw a shortage of good quality homes, with only those selling who had to. And even when a good home arrived on the market, it had to compete with a growing overhang of stales (unsolds) that had been building up since May.  But people still need to buy homes, and the shortage now fueled buyer demand, which led to a bounce in early spring. It was surprising  because there were distractions – the August federal election and subsequent postulations and the footy and Collingwood’s replay victory (got it in) The first days of Spring brought out the instinctual buyers who need to move nests as the sun warms their hearts.  The sun also loosened their wallets, creating a small fillip on quality stock. But it only lasted the month.

And it wasn’t strong enough to absorb the surge of 200+ $ million plus properties going to market on October 23rd’s Super Saturday. In the weeks following, rather than risk passing-in their property to the unsolds list where they might wait weeks for a buyer, vendors initially tried to hold their prices. However, after a few weeks of denial and a Melbourne Cup interest rate jolt they finally began to revise their prices downwards. By end November clearance rates were back at a healthy, if unspectacular 65%.

And so we end 2010 almost where we started in terms of price, but vastly different in terms of what we expect for the start of next season. The heat of last summer is over, but it is still warm in parts. (Inner city quality homes are particularly still in high demand). Overall it’s a more healthy balanced market. For now. Stay tuned for next year.

2010 Awards
Most of our year-end efforts have gone into our 2010 yearbook due out before Christmas (downloadable from this site). Our legend section and their pearls of wisdom are contained within this 2010 marketnews yearbook. The two inductees into the Marketnews Legends Hall of Fame are Alastair Craig and Rodney Morley. However as this is our last 2010 marketnews it is customary to put up our 2010 awards. Consider them like Mike Sheahan’s footy awards – a bit of fun.

Auctioneers: we chose who we chose because we saw these auctioneers consistently quote sensibly (well 6 of 7 anyway), give buyers and sellers a fair go at auction, provide great entertainment and handle the sticky situations well. Other three hat auctioneers were Marshall White’s John Bongiorno, Andrew Hayne and Justin Long, Kay and Burton’s “Hollywoods” Jason Scillio and Gowan Stubbings, RT Edgar’s Jeremy Fox and Abercromby’s Tim Derham, all of whom we really enjoyed watching under pressure, who are brilliant at their job, but had a number of quote malfunctions – a Stonnington malaise for much of the year. Jeremy Desmier and Tim Heavyside are ones to watch and if Fletchers could be less conservative in their high-end auction quotes they would be right up there. Phillip Kingston mainly works the day we like to take off but when we see him we like what we see. We think Mark Earle and Craig Williamson of Buxton, Glen Coutinho, Peter Kennett, Andrew Stuart, Andrew James and Nick Renna of Hocking Stuart, Rodney Morley of TBM, David Oster, Damien Davis, Peter Batrouney and Richard Earle of Jellis Craig, Lachie Fraser-Smith of Benmac and Tom McCarthy of Biggin and Scott all put in two/three hat performances during the year.

Agents: These are the standouts for us – agents who are particularly strong in their market segment. Off market we think Marcus Chiminello from Marshall White is the one to watch.

Young agents: we dropped this segment because they are getting older.

Agency: Jellis Craig was a unanimous choice. Their comparable sales system, their attitude to buyers and general respect for all parties meant for us in 2010 they were our agency of the year.

Each year it’s a different format and each year we offend everybody we leave out – so please try not to take it too seriously.

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Thank yous
I would like to thank my fellow co-workers Adam the Architect, Klarity Kris, Value Dave, Cafe Guy and earlier in the year Ralph and Stephen and our market news co-ordinators Jen, Julia, Sim and Peter. A big thank you to our editors Karin and Melinda, organizer Gina and Michael our MD. You’re a champ Michael.  Thank you to our behind the scenes people in Peter, Dan, Julie, Jason and Naomi and our Board; Peter, Adam, David and Chrisso. Thank you to Phil for your insights as well.

I also would like to thank all the selling agents who despite being on the “other side” allow access to almost all results and auctions, assist with quotes and smooth over ruffled buyer and seller feathers which occasionally happen. There are a few agents who are extra helpful friends of Marketnews and our advocacy business. In no particular order Mike Gibson of Kay and Burton; Rob Vickers-Willis of Abercrombys; Mark “Lama” Dayman, James Tostevin and John Bongiorno of Marshall White; Iain Carmichael, Kaine Lanyon and Elliot Gill of Benmac; David Oster, the Richard(s) James, Winneke and Earle of Jellis Craig; Tom Roberts of Nelson Alexander; Ladies in Red – Jenny Dwyer and Barb Gregory and Andrew Stuart of Hocking Stuart and Geoff Cayzer – thank you. Thank you to the agents at Marshall White who let us join some of their open training sessions – it is most appreciated. There are others and I apologise for leaving you out. Three agents who have helped us a great deal and whom we would like to single out are G-E-R-A-L-D Delany of Kay and Burton, James Connell of Marshall White and Scott “Pretty Boy” Patterson of Jellis Craig. An extra big thank you.

Thanks to our trusty reporters and photographers who come rain, hail or shine are out there in their jackets – ducking and weaving, listening and recording. Thank you to Amy, Daniel, David, Doug, Sue, Kate, Tom, Linda, Nikki, Dustin and Joshua – see you all for a great lunch in a week or so and well done.

We also wish our competitors at Morrell and Koren seasons greetings – enjoyed the battle.

Thanks to our readers and the people who come up at opens and auctions and say G’day.

Finally a big thank you to all our clients who have supported us during the year.

Have a safe and happy Christmas holidays period.

Until next year then (our office closes on December 17th and re-opens Monday January 17th)

Tim Wilson and Jeremy Fox get ready to do battle at 2 Bromley Toorak, but in the end there were not in the trenches and they stood there as generals and watched 3 bidders slug it out to $5,600,000 - $800,000 over reserve.

Week Ending November 27th:

The high end ($3m+) which like the proverbial brides nightie (not sure if I can say that) is up and down at the drop of a hat. A fortnight ago it was up and last week it was down – this week it was up and in a big way – below are some of the results.

Highlights:

• Toorak 2 Bromley with Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar for 5,600,000 – 3 bidders (see report)
• Hampton 3 Lorraine for over $3,000,000 with Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon (Expression of Interest)
• Armadale Adelaide (Off Market)
• Hawthorn 41 Wattle Road – good home on the market for some time bought for well over $5,000,000 through Paul Keane Jellis Craig
• South Yarra 2/155 Domain Road Marcus Chiminello of Marshall White bought for in excess of $7,500,000 or $20,000 per square metre  (Off Market)
• Toorak 88 Mathoura Road for $6,500,000 bought before – also Marcus Chiminello
• Armadale 12 Munro with Tim Derham, passed in at auction last weekend at $3,000,000 and has been bought afterwards.

$3m+ not so highlights:

• Brighton 12a Manor: Passed In $3,800,000: Zero Bidders
• Hawthorn 5 Yarra: Passed In $4,500,000: Zero Bidders
• South Yarra 16 William: Passed In $4,200,000: Zero Bidders
• Canterbury 35 Logan: Passed In for $2,860,000: Zero bidders

South Melbourne 9 Anderson: An exciting auction which had a buzz from the crowd, trams, birds and sounds of people playing sport down the street at the Melbourne Sports And Aquatic Centre. Geoff Cayzer was auctioneer and, although soft spoken, he was very entertaining with his humour and pre-auction speech. This lightened the atmosphere and allowed two bidders to fight it out after Mr Cayzer's opening bid of $2,850,000. The battle wasn't long though as after some 5 bids the hammer was brought down and the property sold for $3,250,000, which brought cheers and jubilation from the winning bidder's party. A great, fun and entertaining auction to watch.

Week Ending November 20th:

This market seems clear as mud in terms of short term directional pointers. Some good ones sold, some good ones didn’t and all on a turnover down on this time last year and down on September of this year. But the market hasn’t stopped completely in its tracks eg 50 Charles Kew with Paul Keane of Jellis Craig – going nowhere for some time then some interest, then bang a boardroom auction and well north of $4,200,000 was achieved on the night. On the quiet side, a second off market north of $13,000,000 in recent times – actually it was over $15million and in establishment Toorak – Mike Gibson from Kay and Burton the selling agent.

$3M+ Highlights

• Malvern 116 Stanhope: Paul Keane of Jellis Craig. Bought for just under $3,500,000
• South Melbourne 9 Anderson: Geoff Cayzer. Bought under the hammer for $3,250,000: 2 bidders
• Ivanhoe 9 Nyorie: David Oster of Jellis Craig. Bought after auction for $3,100,000: 2 bidders

$3M+ not so Highlights:

• East Melbourne 105 George: Passed In on a vendor bid for $4,500,000
• Malvern 1 Wilks: Passed In on a vendor bid for $3,000,000
• Armadale 12 Munro: Passed In on a vendor bid for $3,000,000

Great Expectations but in the end it was more like Bleak House as 50 Hotham Melbourne East failed to sell under the hammer. Passed In for $7,000,000. Glen Coutinho of Hocking Stuart

Week Ending November 13th:

………But this new state of affairs does not apply so much to the $3m+ market which was a little less shiny today after shining like a beacon 7 days ago. In fact there were a number of significant pass-ins at this level this weekend.

So in a nutshell: last week’s doom and gloom on low quality stock and a negative feel mid-week at open-for-inspections was followed by a bit of a bounce-back this weekend – with more homes selling than expected. But that’s not to say it’s a strong sellers market by any stretch of the imagination. At present the market is, in our opinion, between cool and warm, depending on the quality of the stock. We await with interest next week’s instalment as to where our late Spring market is heading.

Highlights

• 32 Linlithgow, Toorak (Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar) was the biggest sale of the day (see report below)
• 4 Snowden, Canterbury (James Tostevin and Duane Wolowiec of Marshall White), Bought after at an undisclosed price of more than $3,000,000.
• 35 Cole St Brighton (Ian Jackson of Kay and Burton), Bought at auction for a shade over $3,500,000 – after not selling at an Expressions of Interest campaign earlier in the year

Lowlights

• The weather
• Biggest Pass-In was at 50 Hotham East Melbourne, a great home with an 800+ James Rating. It failed to attract any bidding near the reserve and was passed in at $7,000,000
• $3M+ pass-ins at 188 The Esplanade Brighton, 3 Buley Hawthorn East, 18 Heyington and 12 Merriwee Toorak

Camberwell 18 Currajong: 3 bidders, 3 advocates and one great auction: Maurice Di Marzio: Bought under the hammer for $3,375,000

Week Ending November 6th:

What a difference a month and some increased stock levels make. If you have a look at our $3m section in October and compare it to our September report you will see a big difference in activity, especially when you consider the market had a clean run in October with no election and limited footy interruptions, and had five

Click on video to see $3m auctions live

auction Saturdays. This market is as fickle as the horse race we love to watch. In Winter this market was down, in September it definitely perked up and now the $3m+ and off-markets would appear to be edging downwards again. But again the statistics are hiding the full story: there were in fact a few sales over this level we have been asked not to report on, and we ourselves have purchased four off-markets over $1million in the last month, in Brighton, Clifton Hill, Hawthorn and Caulfield. Plus look at this weekend’s $3m+ results! The fact is, there is still plenty of activity – just not as public as in September. There are good homes available for sale off market if you know where to look.

• Elwood 45 Dickens: Jason Scillio: Under Hammer: $3,535,000:  3 bidders
  A large crowd gathered in the front garden of this magnificent property to hear Jason Scillio provide a well prepared preamble prior to inviting bids from a large crowd on this beautiful afternoon. After the usual hesitation, strong bidding emerged from three buyers and it was on the market at $3,450,000. The house was soon bought with a strong bid $3,535,000. (David James)

• Carlton North 810 Drummond:  Tom Roberts:  Under Hammer  $3,450,000:  3 bidders
  What a home. This is the best example of the saying ‘don’t judge a book by its cover’.  It is an ugly duckling from the street, but when you walk through the door you’re hit with one of the most stunning living area renovations I have seen in Inner Melbourne. The auction itself started with a pretend bid at $2,000,000 that was immediately countered by auctioneer Tom Roberts with a vendor bid at $3,000,000 and she took off from there. Three bidders and on the market at $3,300,000 before settling at $3,450,000 in front of a crowd of 125.

• Toorak 6 Benson: Gowan Stubbings: Bought around $3,000,000: 3 bidders
  A great auction to watch. Auctioneer Gowan Stubbings led the way, offering a vendor bid of $2,400,000 after a member of the crowd offered an initial bid of $2,350,000. With three bidders overall, it became a battle between two very confident, strong parties, both determined to fight it out to the very end. One bidder offered increments of $10,000 and even $100,000, while the other settled on $1000 increments each time. Ultimately, the $1000 bidder won, walking away with the property for an undisclosed amount close to $3,000,000. A very entertaining auction with a crowd of around 60. (Jen Milligan)

• Some solid results outside Saturday’s auction:
  Toorak 63 St Georges: Andrew Baines of Kay and Burton: Expression of Interest for just under $8 million. Went through this home and tennis court.It had a good feel and, just as the ad says, an exclusive street address. At around $4,000 per sqm it was a win for the buyer and seller.
  Two blocks of flats sold at mid week auctions: South Yarra 28 Tivoli ($4,825,000)  Philippe Batters: 46 Ulupna; Ormond ($3,700,000) Andrew Chisholm.
  Brighton 11 Kent Campbell Cooney was bought post auction for $4,100,000, which put south-facing, non beachfront land on the Golden Mile at $3,800 per sqm

• It was gratifying to see the number of professional advocates acting for buying clients this weekend. The Bidderbuzz auction at Currajong auction had three advocates, and there was one each on Benson, Drummond, Elwood. While the advocate didn’t win the chocolates for their clients every time, at least it shows more $1m, $2m, and $3m+ buyers are making informed decisions.

Brighton, 8 Windermere: A lot of people turned up to do nothing. Passed In on a vendor bid.

Key Points:

• We monitored six auctions across Bayside, with only one selling under the hammer.
• A massive six bidders at 34 Regent St, Brighton East – but no bidders at any of the other auctions we attended.
• Off Market at 19 Victoria, Brighton was bought quietly during the week through Julian Augustini of Hodges for just under $3,000,000
• Counterpoint was again the low stock quality on offer this weekend
  

BidderBuzz Auction of the Day: Brighton East, 39 Regent St, Stewart Lopez, Kay & Burton, Bought Under the Hammer, undisclosed, 6 bidders
“It was cold and the crowd was small – but the action was hot. Six bidders jumped in for this classy block of land and auctioneer Stewart Lopez was rubbing his hands as much in anticipation of the final result as to keep warm. There were still five bidders above $1,800,000 so the final number was market. Well done to the buyer – a good block with a classy shell. Five more bidders still looking for another in Brighton East.” (Kristen Hatt)

Private sales above $3m

• 7 Maysbury Ave, Brighton, David Wilson, JP Dixon, undisclosed

Agent Q & A:

What advice would you give a buyer wanting to purchase a property between now and Melbourne Cup Weekend?
David Hart, Buxton, Brighton:“From a stock point of view in Brighton, buyers will probably have their largest selection of property over the next few weekends. The weekend of the 23rd/24th October in particular, will be a huge auction weekend. I would advise buyers to have a good go at what is out there now, as long as the property suits most of their requirements. The majority of vendors selling now are doing so for genuine reasons, and we don’t expect the traditional late surge of property coming on post Melbourne Cup.”
Sam Paynter, Hodges, Brighton:”The Spring rush from Grand Final to Melbourne Cup is a great time to be in the market. It’s currently a good commercial environment where vendors in general are being pragmatic about price and want to meet the market and sell. With higher volumes of property available it always pays to attend as many auctions as possible for properties that are in your range. Be ready to get involved! Do your home work, have a limit and bid! If you buy a house the hard work will have paid off! Don’t lose heart if the price goes too high! If the property passes in and the price is in your range be prepared to negotiate.”
Robin Parker, RT Edgar, Brighton:”Buying a home to live in, as opposed to an investment, is a huge decision. The endless searching and often the disappointment can shatter even the hardest of characters. Often you will meet buyers  who say ‘’we have just started looking, so we want to look a bit longer before we buy’’…However, “Time and Tide waits for no Man.” [or Woman] If it feels right, do it.”

Land Value
A couple of land value sites in North Brighton – Male and Asling Streets – failed to attract attention at auction. Unlike the Regent, Brighton East sale which puts quality wide and north facing land around $2,000 per square metre

Some of our buyer prayers have been answered

Market: Even with significantly reduced auction numbers this weekend (owing to a more important event which finally delivered a result that proved there was justice in the world), we still saw a pretty healthy market result for sellers – with a 74% Clearance Rate on the 55 $Million+ auctions we monitored. Of those 55 auctions, 9 results were not reported. But even that is not unreasonable under the circumstances of the GF Replay.

There seems little doubt that the market is on the rise. The big interest now is how the market will absorb the stock surge that will culminate in Spring/Summer’s first Super Saturday on October 23rd.

And it really is Super Saturday - with a massive 81 $M+ auctions booked for Boroondara alone, and around 200 $M+ auctions booked in our key focus $M+ areas – Bayside and Inner East. Check out the size of the Weekly Review this week (it’s as big as a phone book). By comparison this weekend saw only one quarter of that number of auctions. So if you were at an auction this weekend, those four bidders you competed against may well be spread across four homes in a couple of weeks. Well that’s the “buyer-hope” theory anyway.

This Week’s Highlights:

• Two land sales showing vastly differing land values
  a) Land at 101 River Avenue Plenty (39,500 sqm), which can be subdivided, was auctioned  by Rob Stefanovski of LJ Hooker Greensborough and  bought for $3,830,000 or $96 per sq metre
  b) A large land parcel (1,813 sqm) at 3-5 Heath St Sandringham sold after a failed auction by Bill Jowett of Buxton for $2,800,000 or $1,544 per sq metre
• The major stock inflows that took place on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday when agents began their marketing campaigns for the next Super Saturday – October 23rd.
• The continued improvement of the $3M+ market – two examples below
  a) Off market in Black St Brighton (Peter Bourbaud and Barb Gregory) – bought for around $4 million
  b) 27 Moorhouse Armadale with Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton – bought after an Expression of Interest campaign for more than $5 million
• The Pies Forward Line pressure (whoops, sorry – I got distracted)

Auction Snapshot from this weekend: 133 Rathmines Fairfield: Michael Fry and Grant Leonard of Nelson Alexander. Bought under the hammer for $1,116,000. 5 bidders.
There was a buzz about this well located timber period home, which had had its quote lifted to $930,000 during the campaign. It was a surprising development given Grant’s comment that the property failed to attract any interest in the high $800s a few months ago with a quiet sale campaign. It was on the market with the first bid at $900,000. Second bid $950,000. Third bid $970,000. Fourth bid-  bang $1,000,000. Three more bidders joined in before the action stopped at $1,116,000. It was a well run auction campaign. I always enjoy a Michael Fry auction. He has a sophisticated grace about him incongruent with the fact that he is yanking the dollars from buyers’ pockets. Enjoyable to watch unless you’re an underbidder – which unfortunately this time we were.

Bumper Market Insight: We have an information packed Market Insight this week; even though there are no Market Wraps, Bidderman, reports or videos.  The footy replay threw this auction weekend into a bit of chaos, with a few auctions even changing days. But it was a very low stock weekend anyway, so no major damage. All $M results are at the end of this Market Insight. But the big news now is the next three weekends that will lead full bore into the Melbourne Cup Long Weekend.

Stock Levels and Price Assessment:
The big question the market will be asking now is: What will happen to prices on October 23rd? With this big stock influx, how is the price game of snakes and ladders going to pan out? Are we going to see the slippery snake and big price slide of May 2010 or will the market just take this in its stride, as it did this time last year, with prices climbing further up the ladder? Time will tell. Importantly as buyers you need to get yourself organised – and don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.

With this apparent largess of choice, perhaps you don’t need brilliant home-seeking skills right at this moment. But you will need first class assessment procedures (e.g. sorting the goodies from the baddies in terms of capital growth prospects, and working out which one is best from a “happy wife = happy life” point of view). You will also need good negotiation strategies – because while you may have more choice, you will also have competition. Remember, our bidders per auction indicator Bidderman was strong on lower numbers in September, especially on good homes. On the flipside, some sellers expectations may be disappointed, so planning good negotiation strategies will improve your chances of grabbing a bargain when it presents.

Have a look at our Forward Auction Booking graphs below to get an idea of what is ahead of you: (click on a graph to enlarge)

There are also some exciting trophy homes on offer through private sale and off market – especially in the $3m+ segment.

Have a look at the New Stock Graph at the top of Market Insight – which compares the last week in September to the last week in June, (private sale and auction weekly new stock numbers are combined).

Special Report on the $3m Market

The $3m+ is back, after the self induced May hiccup that led to a very quiet winter.

There have been over 50 buys in the month of September at this level, with buyers coming from all quarters. Let’s pick one of the segments – around $4million. We have bought 3 homes at this specific level in the last few weeks. All were classic period homes with land of over 1000 square metres. Two were bought post auction (eg after a pass-in) and one was off market (Black St Brighton). However, the interesting thing were the buyer profiles. One buyer was a change of life family, one was a growing family that needed more space, and one was an expat family returning from overseas. This is a fairly accurate representation of the range of people we look for homes for. Of the last case – expats returning from overseas -Brighton high end agent Peter Bourbaud believes “this group will push the market along for the next few years, after a couple of very quiet years from the expat community”. We concur. Last year we conducted very little in business terms last year for expats. However in 2010 there has been a distinct pick up in action from expats returning home.

The James September $3m+ Report with all reported $3m+ boughts and solds can be viewed from the Home Page (next to Market Insight and below Buyer Masterclass) or click here

If you are new to the $3m market you may find the charts below (using 2007 to 2010 Valuer General, REIV and our own James Databases) of some value, as they help to show how the overall $3m+ market works. Note particularly that:

• The two powerhouse $3m+ suburbs are Brighton and Toorak (see 2009 results graphed below). However these two suburbs behave quiet differently from each other (see median graph). More on that another time.
• More $3m+ is bought later in the year than early. (2009 graphed below)
• There are some real name streets around and there are some falsies (where if you pay top dollar you will stand out like a beacon)
• Less than a quarter (25%) of $3m+ homes sell under the hammer at auction (click on September Graph below)
• A lot more activity is off market (not advertised) at this $3m+ level than any other price point, e.g. sub $3m.

Click on any of the graphs below to bring them up to full size

Agent Comments on the current $3m+ market

• “Prior to the school holiday period there was some renewed strength in $3m+ market due to things stabilising after the election and to the shortage of good quality homes. With the spring market in full swing it will be very interesting to see what happens with the increase of volume. But if the enquiry rates are anything to go by, October will be a strong month of sales.” Andrew Hayne of Marshall White Malvern
• “The $3 million plus market is strong, and we are expecting a big finish to spring in this market for good family homes.” Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon Brighton
  
• “There seems to have been a resurgence of buyer enquiry for the upper end properties recently.  It will be interesting to see if this follows through once we see increased stock levels after the school holidays and round 2 of the Grand Final.” Julian Augustini of Hodges Brighton
• Andrew Baynes from Kay and Burton South Yarra “Last Monday was the busiest auction sign up day for me in 10 years.”

Media Monitor: Domain – The Age 2/10/10. Headlined: “Hands up if you don’t have a clue” by Josh Jennings. Basically a solid article – but Josh, how many homes has Dr Damien Eldridge, Economics Lecturer from La Trobe University, bought using his quoted bidding advice this year? Would it have been 5 or 10 or 50? Going by his auction comments we were unclear as to whether you were holding him out as an expert – or simply providing supporting evidence to your headline.

We are not all brickbats here for the mainstream press. Congratulations to Chris Vedelago from The Age who this year has been consistently reporting the market as it really is and who actually seems to get out of the ivory tower (that so many property reporters are stuck in) and goes to auctions and talks to agents. We mightn’t always agree with you Chris, but we respect your work. Keep it up and keep getting out into the market.

Market News TV: On Tuesday of this week we ask the question: Is the ACCC or CAV the right watchdog for the real estate industry? Check out our Agent Opinion Videos.

Buyer Masterclass: We conclude our Negotiation Masterclass series with an article on Backward Bidding. From next week until Christmas we will be looking at “Pricing and Values” in Million Dollar Melbourne

Reported Results:

"Yeah this is going to turn out OK." And it did - just a casual $800,000 over reserve for David Oster of Jellis Craig of Ivanhoe. Bought for $4,300,000. 2 bidders from the opening bid of $3,300,000.

August has seen a bit more noise in the $3m+ market and deals are seemingly back on the agenda at this price level.

Jon Friedrich-designed apartment 9 Glyndon Brighton with an 812/1000 James Home Rating sold for mid $3millions this week after a long time on the market wanting a bit more. Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton

In Ivanhoe two bidders fought it out for over a million dollars to get to the $4,300,000 result, as the above picture states  - a full $800,000 over a fair and reasonable reserve. I went through the home prior to auction and I have to say it was a unique offering with an incredible “Gone with the Wind” feel and sweeping views of much of Melbourne.

Moving southwards we get to:

896 Glenferrie Road, Hawthorn which has been on the market for an eternity, but has finally been sold this month for just under $5m through Phillip French of RT Edgar. Still with Phillip French, he reported a private sale of an apartment at 1/42 Grange Road, Toorak for in excess of $5,000,000.

Earlier this month we reported the auctions on two properties  in Moorakyne Ave, Malvern – Number 11 (Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton) and Number 4 (Justin Long of Marshall White), which sold for $4,000,000 and $3,000,000 respectively. Both had multiple bidding.

While we’re in Stonnington let’s look at a couple of sales through Marshall White’s Peter Bennison, Andrew Hayne and Justin Long.

• 6 Cross Street Malvern which was on the market longer than it takes an Independent to extract a deal for  just under $4,000,000.
• Huntingtower Road Armadale over $8,000,000
• An off market in Malvern East Gasgoine around $4,000,000

3 Wellington St Brighton with Kay and Burton - Passed in June 5th see our Auction Report - James Home Rating 702/1000. Sold this week for a bit under $4m.

Nathan Waterston of Bennison Mackinnon sold a lovely terrace home in 12 Jolimont, East Melbourne for just north of $3,000,000. His compatriot Andrew McCann got 31 Finch Malvern East away at auction for $3,360,000. As reported last week it needed a $million reno – so it was a solid price. There were multiple bidders at the auction.

We reported on 23 Chaucer, Canterbury a fortnight ago with James Tostevin of Marshall White – 3 bidders and sold just under $4,000,000. On the same day Steve Burke of Jellis Craig moved at auction 5 Callintina for $3,330,000.

But the news has been in Brighton in the last week or so.

1) John Knox House – 71 North Road. It had been on the market for a long time but it still wasn’t exactly given away – Sturt Hinton of Kay and Burton.

2&3) The Golden Mile was hot this week with two apartments at 3/9 Glyndon selling for over $3m, and 23 St Ninians, which had an initial asking price of near $5m, selling. Both were with Kay and Burton.

23 St Ninians apartment sold by Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton for an undisclosed amount. They were asking around $5 million at the time I went through. I thought it lacked some floor plan imagination - but it had a view. James Home Rating 649/1000.

4) Also on the Golden Mile and also with Kay and Burton – Ian Jackson sold 6 Seacombe north of $4.5 million.

5&6) 3 Wellington now joins 19 Wellington as having sold recently. Both have been on the market all through the winter doldrums. It was sold by Stewart Lopez and Sturt Hinton of Kay and Burton for close to $4 million.

7&8) Gordon St, Hampton, used the unpopular Expressions of Interest method of sale to achieve a result of around $3.4million through Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon mid week. David Hart of Buxton got another away in the street (23) on Saturday, post auction, after it had been passed in at $2,725,000.

Throw in the reported $7.5million for 3 Avalon, Armadale – Ross Savas of Kay and Burton, Wattletree Road Glen Iris over $3.4million with Marshall White’s Heather Elder and Rae Tomlinson aka “Bonny and Clyde” and a few others – and it’s clear the Top End is not completely dead and buried.

But we do need to keep some perspective – we are a long way off Autumn’s deluge where back in May we saw 50 homes reported as having sold for over $3,000,000.

6 Seacombe Grove Brighton - sold for over $4.5m - Ian Jackson of Kay and Burton. Top 10 Melbourne Street and a James Home Rating of 733/1000.

Why is this happening?

Because buyers are there.

Why now?

The best guess is that buyers never left, but we needed some vendor price adjustments and they are now being made. If this is the case it may simply be a statistical coincidence as opposed to a market change – but it also may bring on some more quality stock, which may or may not give the market a more sustained lift. September is going to be quiet due to Election interference , so October will be the telling month to see if this market is trending back or remaining flat.

We only buy homes

It was game, set and match at 23 Chaucer Crescent today. Holding proceedings from the tennis court in front of a crowd of 100 people, James Tostevin accepted an opening bid of $3,500,000 and the game was on. Three bidders took the price steadily to $3,800,000 before Mr Tostevin referred to his vendor. Not yet on the market, the bidding continued until it reached $3,850,000. The property was passed in, but bought after for an undisclosed amount. Great atmosphere with three bidders over $3,800,000 - a strong result.

A Grey Day across Bayside for most sellers and 12 Margarita Street Hampton was no different. 0 bidders

Key Points:

• Only two good auction sales today with 8 bidders between them:
  18 Central Avenue Black Rock – Errol Driver of Hodges – $1,147,000
  48 Mills St Hampton – Stephen Tickell of Hocking Stuart – $1,560,000
• The other 8 auctions had 5 bidders in total
• Couple of $3,000,000 pass-ins in Bayside – possibly reflective of the large stock overhang at this level in the area.
• Clearance Rates suggests Bayside is the weakest $M+ market at present.

Activity well down on a month ago

Agent Comments - This week we asked if the election was affecting the market

John Clarkson, Hocking Stuart: “Put some buyers into a holding pattern at the top end, more so than the lower end which has a negligible effect; (it’s affected) sellers, which is strange because most people are around election weekend.”

Barb Gregory, Hocking Stuart: “Not discussed; Not enough relevant policy relating to the market; Others, yes but this is a non event; Sellers aren’t changing their mind (and) we have only had one auction booked on this date that has been changed; Buyer levels are there for the season – cautious but not relating to election, due more to the May downturn. It’s also a long, grey, cold winter (and this) affects people’s persona; Personality election, not policy.”

Mark Earle, Buxton: “No talk of the election because buyers have settled, numbed to publicity; Balanced market, less bidders per auction unless overpriced; On the day it will be quiet and some sellers are waiting as listings have dropped a bit; Prices have balanced out.”

Bill Jowett, Buxton: “Seeing it as a positive as people are going to be here; Most are happy to have their property up for auction on election day, but many are preferring a pm open time; Buyers had a hiccup but the wheel has turned;  What’s changed is their numbers; Spring seems to be normal certainly not below.”

Clearance Rates and Monitor Table

Buying Activity - Considerable drop since the dizzy heights of May. Graph shows weekly sales over a $million in Bayside

Land Values

18 Central Avenue, Black Rock with Michael Cooney of Hodges sold for 1,147,500  which equates to $1830 per sq metre

82 Thomas Street, Hampton with Jenny Dwyer of Hocking Stuart hadn’t sold as of time of publishing.  Main road discount would apply.

Family Homes – Resale
12 Margarita St Hampton with Peter Alpar of Hodges was auctioned today. It last sold three years ago for $1,600,000 in early 2007
James Auction Report: James Paynter worked hard to get the small crowd motivated, but without success. Two couples appeared genuinely interested in this fine family home and in this prime location so the property should soon sell. Passed in on a vendor bid of $1,775,000.

Apartments
Good insight from Gerry Gordon of Hocking Stuart (Peter you need to buy Gerry a new tie) “Sweet spot in apartments is when size matches price point. Many apartment buyers are attracted to a price. Price point people are being attracted to Bayside. Healthy apartment market below a million. Getting 5% return“

We Only Buy Homes

Brighton 14 Edmanson: The miserable weather made for a challenging auction. Surrounded by an umbrella-laden crowd of 25, David Hart of Buxton forged ahead with determination. The auction commenced with a vendor bid of $950,000 and with no bidders on the day, the property was passed in by Mr Hart at this same figure.

Bayside this week had a clearance rate of 7 from the 11 monitored properties this week – or 63%. This was up on the 40% to 50% of the last few weeks in May, but it was on a smaller turnover.

Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 1.3 bidders per auction – which is still lowish if we are in an improving market.

Having said,  turnover is now getting back to levels each week where we can gauge meaningful levels.

For instance: the 4th week in May 2010 produced 23 reported private, post auction and auction sales in Bayside. This the 4^th week in July we are looking at 14 reported sales – or about 60% of the corresponding week in May. However, overall we are well done on month to date comparable sales; this is seasonally normal and expected.

Agent Comments:

Stephen Tickell of Hocking Stuart: Prices only drop when vendors say so – i.e. when they accept the reduced prices – and that was happening in May. The market made the adjustment and now we are back to, well Mal where we always are every week, supply and demand. Supply is the main guider of the market of the market at present and there is not a lot for buyers in the $1million range in Sandringham and Hampton.

Julian Augustini of Hodges: There are two markets at the moment in Bayside. Median Bayside around $1 million going well. Double Median such as $3.5 million in Brighton and say $2.5 million in Hampton is struggling a little due to minimal demand for what is on offer and there is a reasonable depth of offering. Price is the key here.

Sturt Hinton of Kay and Burton: Good clearing of stock level. It’s been a good two months with quiet sales both private and off market ranging between $2 million and $6.5 million. We are seeing quieter stock numbers coming on now.

Of the 14 reported $M+ sales for the week the highlight was:

23 Murphy St Brighton – James Home Rating 767 out of 1000
James Home Rating: Great street and this property is appealing from the outside. Excellent land content here and a west facing rear is great for afternoon light. Some may have question marks about the floor plan – while the main bedroom suite is very good the separation to other bedrooms is not ideal and the kitchen and stair placement could be better. The cellar is one of the best I have seen and another big plus is a self contained unit at the rear. A good all round family home.

James Auction Report: In cold, drizzly conditions Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon worked hard to bring the bidders out from under their umbrellas. The result was rapid-fire bidding, culminating in a sale price of $3,350,000 in less than 15 minutes. 2 bidders.

James Post Auction Analysis: Strong but not completely unexpected result.

All other reported sales were in the $1m to $2m range.

Land sales

17 Hornby Beaumaris (towards the Black Rock area) with Peter Hickey of Buxton was at $1450 per sq metre for a larger block of land over 900 sq metres.

27 Plantation Ave Brighton East – certainly in Brighton East’s top five streets, again with Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon. 640 sq metres of land achieved $1,326,000 (see our auction report) or just over $2000 per sq metre.

And finishing off with a couple of smart little single level townhouses for the downsizers:

16 Lynch St Brighton (Sabrina Merrick of Hodges) $1,370,000 at auction (see report) for 452 sqm of land or just over $3000 per square metre

The little gem of the week was 16 Collins St Brighton (Chris Carrington of Buxton) – a single level townhouse in need of a reno in central Brighton. It surprisingly sold beforehand for $1,450,000. That was a rare opportunity and well done to whoever bought it.

This coming week we are monitoring 19 auctions.

We only buy homes

23 Murphy St Brighton: Solid result though Nick Johnstone of $3,350,000. See report above. 2 bidders

What is it with redheads? They're running the country - and now they're taking over the auctions. We counted six in this photo in amongst auctioneer Phillip Kingston from Gary Peer. 7A Nightingale St Kilda East. Bought After $1,200,000. 1 bidder.

At 6pm Saturday the James Clearance Rate on the 22 $M+ Auctions we covered was 59%.

Our Demand Indicator Bidderman was 2.2.  Hmmm – an interesting increase but it was off a very low turnover.

Today’s Highlights

1)      Bidders were present at 18 of the 22 auctions we covered –  and at three auctions there were 6+bidders

• 23 Sunburst Avenue Balwyn North (Doug McLauchlan of Marshall White)
• 12 Lennox St Hawthorn (Russell Turner of Christopher Russell)
• 7 Monomeath Avenue Toorak (Justin Long of Marshall White)

2)      The Pies are top of the ladder – and the election is on

We couldn’t find many $M+ auctions worth covering and only one of the auctions we covered went over $2m this weekend. So with the small numbers – just coming out of  the winter hiatus – it was like a first back training run before we get into the winter season proper over the next few weeks.

Agent Quotes

Scott Patterson of Jellis Craig: “Sold 12 from 16 today throughout the company. Opens and auctions were well attended…those who wish to sell in next month or two could enjoy quite solid results due to lack of supply, because demand seems reasonable… August 28 is looming as big weekend, particularly as it is now the week after the election…only thing is that Hawthorn vs Collingwood might affect crowd numbers etc…’

Hamish Tostevin of Marshall White: ”Opens were steady without being over-run with buyers. Certainly a lack of property at the moment in terms of supply. Should be a solid spring, particularly when the election is out of the way.”

Now, where were we before we were so rudely interrupted (by the school holidays)?

It has been a month since we last reported, and we have seen more Top End activity at Tullamarine than in any other suburb. Was it sales? No. It was our selling agent brethren jetting off to Europe to recharge their batteries. This poor humble buyer agent can only give you a travelogue on the Dubbo Zoo so I won’t bore you with tales of kids and a 12-hour car drive or the fact it ain’t a patch on the Werribee Zoo.

The world is a different place since our last report: back then Kevin ’07 was in charge, Masterchef was still a competition to find the best amateur chef in Australia, not the luckiest cook as it is now, and our $M+ market had prices cooling quicker than a Melbourne winter, after a blistering start to the year (although there were still an incredibly high number of buys).

A month ago we reported that the early 2010 gains had evaporated in the five auction weeks of May due to the sheer number of listings. May’s record supply finally stopped what had, since March 2009, been a rising market, driven initially by international buyer demand and then solid local demand.

So what is happening in our Winter Market (June to August) right now?

To be frank we don’t know for sure yet. But here are some of our thoughts.

1. Prices Now
2. Stock Quality Now
3. Method of Sale Now
4. Risk v Reward Now

Prices Now
Selling agents love to use the ‘p’ word plateau (rather than the four letter ‘f’ word)  to reflect on, or deflect away, thoughts of a declining price market. Right now, we actually agree with the ‘p’ word – especially if you accept that prices fell significantly in May and June. (By the way, the ‘f’ word that selling agents don’t like to use is fall.)

Some reasons prices may be plateuaing are:

• Seasonally reduced action (winter)
• An election on the horizon –  so some buyers and would-be sellers will pause to wait for the result.
• We had a big price fall in May and  for most of us market watchers the way forward is still unclear. Will we see more price drops or …. who knows? Like many, we are waiting for a sign.

Demand in Relation to Price

• This weekend Bidderman was at 2.2 – but, please note, this is based on very low auction volumes and therefore statistical distortions are possible.
• As a buying company,  we have had commitments from a significant number of new clients over the past few weeks.
• We feel it’s better to reflect overall demand as more cautious rather than dropping – however another month or two may tell us a different story.
• Right now, buyers still do have the rare luxury of having their cake and eating it too – if they choose to. Prices have fallen in May/June, and in July we are in a market of reasonable choice. Hooray for buyers!

Private Sale Clearance Rate – the number of Proven Sales is only 11 from 50 – or 22% – over the past six weeks.

Six weeks ago we randomly selected a basket of 50 higher end Private Sale and Expression of Interest properties, right across our $M+ Melbourne market. We did this with the aim of  checking  what was bought 6 weeks later (roughly the same time as a “go to whoa” auction campaign), and to therefore calculate the clearance rates  to see how Private Sales and Expressions of Interest were really going.

We thought this snapshot would provide the best reflection of private sale market activity and confirm or question comments by some selling agents that: “Oh yes, auctions were not as good as March, but we are selling a heap via private sale”. The results proved that while in May agents were selling a heap, it wasn’t so much the case in late June to early July. However,  it could have just been that many agents were away.

• We have made an effort to contact those that were withdrawn without a sale price, and we may have missed a few sales – but overall the non-auction homes are NOT running out the door any faster than the auctions. In fact you could make a strong argument that, as an effective method of sale, auctions are still outperforming private sales in many cases – despite the declining clearance rates, given that only 1 in 4 private sale properties have been bought in 6 weeks.
• These figures must surely help smart buyers put together an offering strategy. It’s certainly prompted us here at James Buyer Advocates to change how we buy in the last two months.

Today’s final word on price – are you a glass half empty of half full person?

If you feel the double-dip recession is fast approaching and the world as we knew it is about to end, then, by all means, don’t buy – and in fact sell (and please give us a ring if you have a good home to sell).

If you feel Julia (Gillard) won’t be changing the legitimate immigration numbers any time soon (demand) and Justin (Madden) won’t be able to release large numbers of housing blocks in Inner Melbourne because they are not there (supply), you may wish to ignore the doomsayers and take advantage of this current price breather combined with good stock offering. The GFC lasted less than a year  (for us) and in July 2010 Melbourne $M+ home prices are still 20 to 30 per cent above 2008 GFC home prices. Remember the 2008 ‘bulls**t’ rumour of the year, which said the NAB and other banks were about to foreclose on 200 homes in Toorak alone – it never happened. Yes we are biased and make a living by encouraging buyers to buy – but the facts are still very positive for buyers.

Stock Quality Going Forward
Spring quality and auction numbers are the variables we don’t have a clear handle on as yet. Right here and now in July, we have a market with excellent stock numbers for buyers – if you know where to look and you actually act correctly (please see the following paragraph on methods of sale). We also think the quality is good. Going forward, quality stock levels are not clear to us, because traditionally when quality sellers see a declining market they are loathe to put their home on the market on a speculative basis (in that, if they don’t have to sell, they won’t). This obviously leads to less stock on the market, which may affect price but, more importantly, it affects choice. Good buying decisions are more likely when, along with good advice, you, the buyer, have good choice.  You have that now.

Method of Sale
As we said, there is choice now if you know where to look, whom to ask and how to deal. Look at the above private sale table – there are some good homes there. We keep overhang lists (stales and unsolds) and there are also a number of off-markets and quiet pre-releases available. Granted, some of the vendors are still in their price cocoons but  quality sellers who have adjusted their price expectations may have homes worth considering. The off-market (unadvertised properties) may well be the market of choice for a number of buyers and sellers in the next few months.  But, please note buyers, you will have to sharpen your negotiation strategies to take advantage of all that is on offer.

Risk v Reward
To digress – Risk v Reward is where Masterchef’s Adam and Claire had it all over Jono. While Jono was going for the big dish on every occasion – and you have to admire him for that – he wasn’t playing the game to the best of his abilities. Adam is the quiet master at the Masterchef game. He sees a situation and says: “Yeah, I want to try and make a dish that will impress the judges and maybe get me a shot at immunity – the reward – but I don’t want to push the boundaries that far that I risk getting in the elimination round if I fail.” Good Home Buying and Negotiation is absolutely the same as this. Why is that? Because in the first instance the strategy should be to get yourself into a strong position and not risk all for the pot of gold. Once you are in that strong position, then you can make a run for the prize. Another analogy is acclimatising at base camp before you make the assault on the Everest summit. This is Risk v Reward.

A full James Buyer Opinion on Risk v Reward in today’s Market will be published here on Tuesday – so look out for it this week. At the moment you will find our biggest ever ‘clicked on’ James Buyer Opinion article – The Learning Fee - right next to this article.

It’s good to be back

We Only Buy Homes

Mal

Balwyn North 23 Sunburst. Big Crowd for Doug McLauchlan of Marshall White - 125 in fact. Seven bidders. Bought under the hammer for $1,567,000.

As we are now firmly into a new market, we thought it time to have a stab at one of the most perplexing concepts confronting inexperienced buyers in high-end real estate  - the “Learning Fee”.

The “Learning” Fee is the amount you as a Do-It-Yourself buyer can end up paying extra for the home you buy, simply because buying a house is not something you do every day. We all pay some form of learning fee every time we buy – for the inexperienced it is an ‘unknown unknown’,  for the more experienced it is just a question of amount.

As buyer agents at James Buyer Advocates, each of us in the office have paid significant learning fees buying property in our personal lives. Let me tell you how many mistakes I made in my personal property life early on. But I’m 50 and have banged my head against the wall enough times for the message to sink in. And now each time I buy personally and professionally, my learning fees are lower.

Learning fees come in a number of shapes and sizes. Here are just some examples we have come across. (To keep the maths simple we’re using $2million scenarios)

1. Wrong Home DIY Learning Fee: You buy a home, and after a year or two it just doesn’t feel right. With the “happy wife-happy life” jingle firmly in your mind you sell and buy again. Your financial Learning Fee, assuming you bought and sold well in the first place, is: $110,000 in stamp duties $60,000 in agent selling and reselling fees $20,000 in removal costs and another $20,000 in incidentals such as legals, repainting etc. That’s around $210,000 in Learning Fees.
2. Capital Growth Gap DIY Learning Fee: This is where you buy a home with poor capital growth characteristics, and it grows at the rate of say 5% while everything around you grows at 8%. A 3% difference mightn’t seem like much short term. But over the average seven years of home ownership, your decision will add up to a Learning Fee of $493,557. ($3,173,748 – $2,680,191).
3. Missed Opportunity DIY Learning Fee: This is the Learning Fee you discover you’ve paid when you compare yourself with Mr and Mrs Jones who always seem to be on holidays, sending their kids to great schools and not working much. That’s because they were prepared to pay an extra $100,000 a few years ago after  beating off stiff competition from six other bidders for a really good period home with good land content. Since then their home has been outperforming the rest of the property market at 11% a year. Meanwhile the less than average property you settled for (see Capital Growth Gap – above) has been growing at just 5%.  Even accounting for the initial extra $100,000 the Jones’s spent “overpaying” for their great home, your Learning Fee for buying your ordinary home is around $1,000,000; over seven years that’s around $200,000 per annum for EACH of those 7 years, before tax.
4. Renovation DIY Learning Fee: Here we have the case of “the Switzers” who paid $1,700,000 for a home that was in need of a $300,000 reno. As with many renos, not everything went to plan and their renovation ended up costing them $610,000. But they got what they really wanted. Well sort of – the home isn’t as close to the shops and they couldn’t afford the pool or the special Masterchef oven. In fact the Switzers now acknowledge they would have been just as happy to have paid the $2million in the first place and avoid the drama of the renovation, and be within walking distance of Hampton Street’s “Brown Cow” – and have a smaller mortgage. DIY Learning Fee: around $300,000 and then some.
5. The Investment DIY Learning Fee: Here we have Jason and Kylie, a couple of 25 year old hot bods who charge off to one of those investment property seminars which promise you’ll make a million dollars in six months, but instead our bright young things end up knee-deep in cash-flow tables, bank documents and (whoops!) a signed investment home contract that results in their off-the-plan, out of town, so-called whiz bang investment property growing at a miserable 1.3% per annum over the next ten years. It’s not only preventing them building any wealth, but worse, it’s stopped them buying the dream home they wanted to live in, which they could have afforded except the banks won’t back them now they have this off-the-plan out-of-town millstone around their neck restricting their borrowing abilities. Their Learning Fee ends up being their whole life – keeping them in a McMansion in Pakenham when they really wanted to be in a period home in Hawthorn.
6. The Emotional DIY Learning Fee: A real life Eastern suburbs example here where a potential client wanted to put a bid in on a home, with a “take it or leave it” demand. We suggested opening up negotiations with an offer a few hundred thousand dollars lower, telling them that “sometimes it’s not how much you offer but how you present it”. No, they said, “that’s our offer and they can take it or leave it”. Unsurprisingly their offer, and their ultimatum, wasn’t accepted.  Annoyed and fragile, these people walked down the road to another agent and paid $400,000 more for a home that we had passed on 6 months ago when it sold at auction. The home requires a major rebuild – in the millions – that will leave very little rear yard. It may be the right home for these people, who knows, as we never really got to know them, but it’s a very real possibility that a very large learning fee has been paid.
7. The DIY Valuation Learning Fee: If you are told its worth $2.2 and you think it’s worth that but it is in fact worth a lot less…..
8. The DIY Negotiation Learning Fee: If you are told to pay $2.2m and you don’t know how to correctly offer $1.9m …………

Of course another Learning Fee can be the fee you pay to a buyer agent to help you buy. In the past financial year we have bought around 80 homes in that $1m to $5m bracket.

An argument against paying a buyer agent learning fee is that at an auction, under the hammer and on the market it’s the person with the most money who wins, and buyer agent fees are just additional imposts.  This at times is a legitimate concept (especially with inexperienced and incompetent buyer agents).  But in this market, seven out of eight deals are Expressions of  Interest or Pass-Ins or Private Sales or Pre Auction Offers or boardroom dealings …(where there are no rules) not under the hammer public auctions.

A substantial argument for paying a Learning Fee to a buyer agent is that it can significantly reduce your overall Learning Fee on this a most important financial decision, which you may make only once a decade. Alternatively a buyer agent fee can be regarded as an insurance against paying the kind of hefty Learning Fees we saw in the above cases.

A result of paying a Learning Fee to a competent buyer agent could be savings off your mortgage, better capital growth, more money in your personal life and –  the hard to measure  but no less important – better emotional outcomes.

In life we all pay – the question is how much.

Not enough pressure at an auction for you? Then why not add a Channel 7 film crew and a new TV series and it's raining and indoors in a small space and you've got Marcus Peters breathing down your neck. Mate I was scared just watching. One very brave bidder and passed in at $850,000. St Kilda - 23 Mitchell.

SUPPLY OVERHANG BUILDS
First some stats. Last Saturday’s (May 29) Auction results showed strong evidence of “auction overhang” in Port Phillip where the clearance rate was 32% clearance rate on the 22 auctions we monitored.

Seven days later the reported clearance rate had lifted from 32% to 45%, with only three of the pass-ins and unreporteds reported as having been bought. On this evidence, it seems a stretch to say that in Port Phillip Million-Dollar-Plus homes are being bought soon after auction. There is overhang elsewhere in $Million Melbourne but not as much as Port Phillip. Which suggests the chance of bargains here.

What Supply Overhang means to you, the buyer
1.  More choice, given that new stock has to compete not only with other new stock, but with old stock which hasn’t sold yet.
2.  Better pricing on all homes as there is real competition for the first time in a long while – providing of course you understand the negotiating game and know how to play it.

We genuinely believe that there is an air of bargain hunting around at the moment and if you are a little brave or a little flexible on the purchase then perhaps you may consider being a bit more aggressive on the offer. Perhaps you also may consider talking to a buyer agent to show you your real alternatives.

Stock Levels Going Forward – Unlike Boroondara stock does seem to be drying up a bit. Forward auction bookings for Port Phillip are decreasing compared to May. So a quick rebalance is possible.

Apartments
This $M+ market is still continuing to show some signs of life with 3 more reported sales in

• 576-578 St Kilda Road Melbourne at $2,200,000 with Biggin and Scott
• 48 Nelson St St Kilda for $1,300,000 with David Cutler of Century 21
• 3908/7 Riverside Quay Southbank (Eureka)  for $1,200,000 with Georgina Dakdouk of Dingles

A report from Michael Szulc of Cayzers
We had 7 auctions scheduled for today, of which we have sold 5.  1 before auction, 1 under the hammer, 3 passed in and sold shortly after.

The new trend appears  for buyers to be holding back until the last moment and not declare their interest until they have to. It is only when it appears the property will be taken away from them that they show their hand. Whilst buyers are thin on the ground just at the moment, they are still there and it is case of the agent knowing how to deal with the situation……….patience and experience is proving very important at the moment.

Buy Opportunity

Port Phillip – 11 monitored – 6 bought – 54% clearance rate (last week 32%)

Port Melbourne 65 Bridge; Gerald Betts of RT Edgar. 1 bidder and passed into them for $1,810,000