To help us get a sense of what happened this year in Melbourne’s Top End property market, on both sides of the fence, we asked some of the greats of Melbourne real estate – our Legends – to give us their perspectives. We also asked them to take a longer historical view on how this year compared with the recent past and on how it might impact on the market when it opens again next year.

Peter Batrouney – Jellis Craig – 0419 005 236

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand was not quite as strong as 2010. However for a prime property such as 47 Kinkora Rd Hawthorn it is a very strong market still.
Supply is holding and our own stats support that.
Prices are down by 10-15%

Where are we on the price cycle compared to 2007 peak, 2008 GFC or say 2010. And what do you think will happen to price early next year?
Next year I expect the market to open up briskly as it has always done in my 43 years of tracking it. February is statistically the most successful month in which to sell.

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
This has been a year of two markets.. The year stated strongly with supply and demand well balanced after a slow end to 2010. Most surplus stock from 2010 was mopped up early in the new year and prices were comparatively strong.

About mid year however, the news of Europe started to dominate, which initially lowered supply. But at the same time we saw sliding prices (meaning demand dropped even more).
One thing that has become apparent is the flight to quality. Main roads and other distractions have almost become unsalable in Port Philip, particularly in the $2 million plus range.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
In one sense, having a breather after the price spikes of 07 and 09 is not such a bad thing, as 20% growth per annum is unsustainable. The question is, is this a breather or a five year flat market?

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand was steady for the first half of the year across all price ranges. In the second half there was a noticeable drop off in demand above $2 million. Up to and around $1 million has remained steady. Supply contracted sharply mid year and rebounded strongly over October and November, noticeably easing prices. Overall the market faded toward the finish line with many properties failing to attract buyers at any price. Subsequently a significant number have been withdrawn from sale altogether. In closing, it is fair to say that prices across the board have dropped by 10 to 15% this year.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
The current price cycle mirrors the worst of 2008 and much like the early 90s buyers are remaining cautious and largely unresponsive to the downward movement in pricing that has occurred throughout 2011. The ongoing negative media coverage of the market has no doubt influenced many would be buyers to ‘sit on the fence’.

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
In 2011 we have seen a reserved correction in terms of pricing as a result of general uncertainty and fear as a result of world economies and media commentary across the many markets in which we operate.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
2012 in my opinion will represent great buying opportunities to those looking to enter the market or upgrade an existing property.

Alastair Craig – Jellis Craig – 0418 335 363

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand has been strong for the good quality period/modern homes in the A Grade streets
Supply is down approximately 10%
Pricing West of Burke Road is very stable. East of Burke Rd prices are down 10-15%
When the market gets a little tougher, buyers tend to stick close to Glenferrie/Cotham Rd (The school belt)
Pricing is approximately 10% down overall from the peak of the market – Easter 2010

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
2012- Hawthorn/Kew to remain steady. East of Burke Road has already fallen 15% and may thus remain stable.

Rob Vickers-Willis – Abercromby’s – 0412 210 066

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
With the economic uncertainty from Europe and the continual fluctuations of the share market in the USA we have seen confidence drop in the Australian economy and share market.
This, along with the negative media over a period of time, has caused the market to drop between 5-10 % this year. Many vendors with A-plus rated properties have not placed them on the market, which has compromised the quality of stock. B-grade real estate is bringing average prices so the quality of property is not on offer and therefore prices have fallen. This is a trend that will most likely continue through the first half of 2012.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
We are probably half way through the cycle and, depending on what happens to the European markets and the RBA (if they have the balls to drop rates by another 75 basis points by April 2012), we will then see the cycle slow or jump ahead. I expect property prices to vary 1-5% up or down or stay constant for the next 12 months.

Andrew Stuart – Hocking Stuart – 0418 329 960

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
2011 has been a tough year! And yet along with that it has brought opportunities!
Opportunities to ‘skill up’ your staff, particularly in the area of selling in tough conditions, keeping track of that elusive buyer, and still endeavouring to achieve respectable outcomes for your clients.
Clearance rates in Bayside have remained fairly steady throughout the year at around 50-60%.
In previous years approximately 30% of the properties we sold were to investors. This year probably that figure is closer to 10%! Given that, coupled with more people looking to rent rather than to buy, you can understand why rental properties are very hard to find and why weekly rent is going through the roof! Demand has slipped! Supply of saleable properties has declined with many vendors still clinging to prices of 2 years ago. Therefore fewer properties have been selling for cheaper prices.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
However, the good news is that I reckon we are at 6 o’clock. Things will improve from here. The question is: When?!!

John Bongiorno – Marshall White – 0418 328 056

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
It has been a challenging year, however properties well priced have continued to sell successfully in this market.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
In regard to prices compared to previous years, there are so many different market places within our markets – it is difficult to pinpoint movement, in some instances prices have held firm, in others there have been price adjustments compared to previous years.

I am optimistic about 2012 and I believe the adjustment to prices will see astute buyers take advantage of the market place that exists currently and create more activity than 2011.

Iain Carmichael – Bennison Mackinnon – 0418 850 988

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
It has become evident that buyer demand for most sectors of the residential market across Melbourne’s inner suburbs has receded from the highs of late 2010. Buyers have become more studied in their approach and are less inclined to negotiate on properties that are overpriced. Accordingly, people are taking longer to make buying decisions and family buyers are quite prepared to ‘walk away’ from properties that do not meet their needs. On the plus side, buyers are still prepared to pay fully for well located properties offering the right accommodation.
When prices fall in inner Melbourne, supply follows.  This time around is no exception to that rule and its not surprising that fewer people are choosing to sell right now. This very fact actually maintains buoyancy in the market.
A clear reduction in the level of ‘irrational exuberance’ in the market place has occurred for all sorts of reasons -  uncertainty, uneasiness and apprehension to name three.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
Who knows where we are on the Price Cycle? On the ‘economic clock’ we are probably at about ‘twenty past’. Prices will be flat at best in 2012. All the more reason to select the right agent who really understands how to maximise selling prices on behalf of vendors, rather than just making another a sale! On the other hand, real estate prices could well re-bound if the European economy falters and private investors move funds from equities. The money has to go somewhere!

Bert Stewart – Buxton – 0418 350 199

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand has been reasonably strong overall, especially at the bottom end of the market below the $1,500,000 range.
Supply is certainly down on the previous year because of the vendor’s uncertainty of what’s happening with the global financial situation, people tend to be conservative in times like these.
Prices have come off 10% to 20% in the top end of the market but have held better in the bottom end.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
Compared to the price cycle of the last 3 years I believe prices are below, but having said that for prestige properties with a wow factor in excellent locations and priced well, they are selling well.
Prediction of the market next year would be steady as she goes with the first batch of auctions in February and March a strong barometer of what will happen going forward.

Michael Gibson – Kay and Burton – 0418 530 392

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
2011 has been the year of continual market fluctuations which has made giving accurate advice extremely difficult. Since the start of May supply and demand have been lower however the properties that tick all the boxes have continued to sell well.
Prices have come off in varying degrees; 5% to 15% depending on the quality of the offering, with market conditions perhaps similar to that of 2008.  The auction clearance rates do not reflect the current underlying strength in the market.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
2012 will be determined by local interest rates and confidence levels of the world around us, and to that end let’s hope rates come down and confidence goes up!!

Phillip Kingston – Gary Peer – 0414 353 547

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Whilst there were many highlights, overall most agents/agencies will be glad to shut the doors on the 2011 real estate market.

Lower prices, a lower volume of transactions, less competition and longer ‘days on market’ will ensure most agents holiday locally this summer rather than venturing overseas (if they will holiday at all).  A reported closing of eight real estate agencies per month in 2011 meant only the strong, well organised companies survived.

The year started with a bang with good clearances and healthy buyer competition in February and March. This provided a misleading perception about the late 2010 market jitters, which was only temporary. The next three months (April, May, June) really set the tone for the year to come as selling prices were rapidly corrected upon buyers refusing to pay precedent prices. Conversely many vendors who had price expectations based on the prior ‘bull’ year weren’t willing to accept the new market conditions. Those who did were the ultimate winners as prices progressively declined through the year albeit at a very slow rate.

By mid-year the ‘new market’ had set in and transactions were occurring creating a new level of pricing that resulted in many vendors withdrawing from the market resulting in low offerings.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
I would like to think 2012 will be a ‘hot’ real estate year, but realistically I don’t think it will be. It will most likely be a balanced market between buyers and sellers prepared to transact at today’s prices. Good, unique, well-positioned properties will still be sought after and often will attract a premium prices as stock levels are not likely to be as high as they were in previous years.

Rodney Morley – TBM Woodards – 0418 321 222

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
As you know the weaker market we are experiencing is caused by a shift in the demand and supply cycle.  Demand has dropped whilst supply over the year has not dramatically fallen, resulting in fewer purchasers, with a greater choice.

In the last two months the gap has increased further in the buyers favour, i.e. demand down and supply up.  As a result of these market forces prices have softened.

The peak of the market was October 2009 – March 2010, I believe across the board in the area that I operate there has been a 10 – 15% reduction in prices from the peak.

Obviously, there are exceptions, especially when properties tick all the boxes. Few have exceeded the previous peak unless due to exceptional circumstances i.e. – adjoining property holders, unique properties etc.

Due to the rolling crisis in Europe, buyer’s confidence has been reduced.  In good times people confidently purchase prior to selling their own properties but with confidence levels lower, conservatism creeps in and buyers are reluctant to stretch the purchase price as they take a more conservative view of their trade in.  This is why we aren’t experiencing huge percentage increases over and above the reserve prices.

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
As mentioned above, we are certainly below the 2010 peak.  My experience is that sentiment is more negative now than the 2008 GFC.  I believe prices in the New Year will be similar to what we are currently experiencing now (10-15% lower than the March 2010 peak) and expect them to remain at these levels in the forseeable future.

Of course if  GFC 2 occurs, as several commentators are predicting, combined with a lack of confidence in the current government, prices could further reduce into 2012.

It will be interesting to see the reaction to today’s second interest rate drop in 2 months.  However, past history has demonstrated the biggest gains in housing prices have been accompanied by considerably higher interest rates than we are currently experiencing.

Geoff Cayzer – Cayzers – 9699 5999

What happened this year in your area of expertise?
Demand
The demand in the Inner City Bayside Area has diminished quite considerably over the last 12 months. The market has been supported by the movement of local people within the surrounding districts. There is strong sales evidence that indicates that buyers have endeavored to upgrade in the current market.

Supply
The supply of properties over the last 12 months has been similar to recent years. With the Melbourne auction conversion rate being in the mid 50% has seen a lot of properties being passed in and available for private sale. With the compression of new auctions and the backlog of private sales it has seen a wonderful cross section of quality properties from which the public can choose on the open market.

Price
With the slowing down of the sales conversion rate and the lack of confidence of buyers it has seen a definite discount across the board with regard to price. In some examples there has been a definite 5 – 10% reduction in the sale price when compared with last year. Whilst all vendors have been prepared to reduce their asking prices they will not accept silly offers as they still retain good equity in their property and are prepared to wait until the market improves.

Why?
With the compounding factors of the overseas economic climate uncertainty in the share market and lack of confidence of the buyers it has seen nervousness throughout the market. Potential buyers have still inspected properties and have shown interest but have been unprepared to make a formal commitment. Conversation with higher priced owners has indicated that they are hoping for an improvement in the market in 2012. That has yet to been seen!

Where are we on the price cycle and what do you think will happen to price early next year?
We are of the opinion that with the rises and falls during the period 2007 – 2010 that the market throughout 2011 has been of a similar type. The major difference that we have noticed is that people selling during the GFC had to sell whereas the people under pressure in 2011 have elected to hang on until the market corrects accordingly. We see a slight improvement in 2012 but do not believe that the market will get the previous heights of prices achieved in previous years.

This Melbourne Auction scene was especially commissioned of Kym Hart and presented to Architect Adam for achieving a significant milestone with the company during the year. We love auctions!

The Block was great entertainment – but for me it was also the best reality TV show in a decade because it showed the harsh reality of what happens when you break all the rules in the property investment book.

I took the opportunity to go through each property a few weeks before the auctions and assessed them according to our James Home Ratings criteria. What stood out most, apart from the fact that it was a hugely popular show that captured everyone’s imagination, was how many rules were broken. Breaking those rules has led almost inevitably to the end result, where only one of the properties sold under the hammer at auction. Sorry guys, but this was always going to a disaster in the making. For us though as viewers, it was an invaluable lesson in how not to make money through property.

So what did we learn from the show apart from the fact that Josh is getting married to Jenna?

Rule No 1: You make your money when you buy

If you’re buying property as an investment and you’re hoping to make a profit on the resale, what really matters is not the selling price but how much you pay for the original property. Okay we understand that Channel 9 was more interested in the show’s ratings than the profit they’d make on reselling the properties. But the price they paid for the initial properties was way too much. Sure it was a big block, and it had four houses on it, but at an average of around $900,000 per site, plus stamp duties of around $50,000 each, plus holding costs of 6% (another $50,000+ each), plus the selling agent fees…Well each home was priced at well over a million dollars before the first contestant even showed up and the first nail was hammered.

Rule No 2: Buy the best position you can

This for me was the real killer – the position was a shocker. Yes the properties were close to all amenities but anything in Richmond is close to all amenities. Have you been down that street at night? It’s scary. Stand in the street or look on Google streetview and do a 360 degree turn – what do you see? Industrial sites, multi storey car parks.  And who knows what is going there in the future? What if it’s a panel beater shop and you end up with the smell of paint thinners in the morning? There’s a vacant block of land to the west of No 37 that has recently changed hands for just over a $1million: who knows what will go in there?

Rule No 3: Consider your target market – before you start!

The properties themselves had some real positives in terms of the land. The north orientation will bring light and winter warmth into those back living areas. So sure, that’s a tick. They all had good street appeal (tick) and the block widths were above average for the area, meaning the homes could give that feeling of space which is very important in a home (tick). However they all had another huge negative: on top of the scary street there was no car-parking. Which means that your future buyers or renters are going to have park their car at night somewhere in the street. So that is going to knock single women, young married couples, and older couples out of your target market. In fact, just about anybody except students and local lads would have concerns about living here.

Rule No 4:  Don’t overcapitalize.

If you are about to spend $1million or so even before one sod of earth is turned or one nail is hammered AND you want to make a profit, you need to know whether you’re likely to recoup the costs of your renovation – and hopefully more. Otherwise you’re going to end up overcapitalising. How can you work that out? Well, look around you. What sales evidence was there in The Block area for $1.5million homes? Zippo. We can tell you this because coincidentally on the same day of the Block auction we bought a property at auction for a client in Richmond only a few hundred metres away. It was on bigger land,  it had car parking and good period features – and we got it for just over $1.2million. So if $1.5million is the minimum amount you need to make serious money, but there is little or no sales evidence of properties selling for that amount in the area – DON’T BUY.

Rule No 5: Amateurs don’t make money on renos – they make money because they are lucky that the market happens to be in an upwards phase.

Whenever someone tells me they made money on a renovation, I think, well, no you didn’t, you made money by buying the right home in the first place. They would have made the same, and maybe even more, by doing nothing. It’s the market that makes you money. If the market is not in your favour, most amateur renovators lose money and the Block confirmed this. The bloke at 35 Cameron St Richmond (the vacant block) made more money than all the renovators combined by doing little.

Rule No 6: Don’t think short term with property unless you like excessive risk

The Block also highlighted the risks of short term flipping. Besides the fundamental error in the initial choice, the market was also unkind to the contestants. Which again highlights the short term risks in property. To buy this year, tart up and flip next year is a strategy fraught with danger and can cost you a packet. Each of these homes lost at least $200,000 if you factor in all costs – and they probably lost a lot more.

Rule No 7: Choose local selling agents, who are experienced at your price range – and choose the best not the cheapest.

The four auctioneers chosen to sell The Block properties are all very good at their job. But it was interesting to note that the only home that sold under the hammer was sold by a local agent, Russell Cambridge. He is a good operator, as is his partner Sam Davenport, who got the buyers there. Glen Coutinho is a really good auctioneer but his patch is Hawthorn, which may be close but it is quite a different market to Richmond. Ruth Roberts is a top female auctioneer from whom we bought a property less than a fortnight ago – but she is well known in Carnegie, and that’s a long way from Richmond. And again, while Clayton Smith is a strong local agent, he was always up against it having to market the weakest home in terms of floorplan. There can’t be that many people wanting to buy in Cameron St and he was always going to get the leftovers. Tough gig. (By the way: well done to Jellis Craig and Biggin and Scott for their very generous donations to charity.)

Rule No 8: Good Buyer Agents are of value.

Apart from Frank Valentic who is a smart operator with Advantage, the buyers agents who showed up to The Block auctions were just embarrassing. Our apologies – this is not how normal quality buyer agents represent the clients and just shows that when you put a camera in front of an idiot, they are still an idiot. Notice how you didn’t see quality buyer agents like Morrell and Koren there trying to buy rubbish or making a fool of themselves – they simply didn’t recommend The Block homes to their clients.

Rule No 9:  Substance v Puffery

In homebuying, digital TVs, paint colours, furniture etc come and go. If you view our online ratings you will notice that we give a total of 1 point out of 1000 for stuff like cabling and shower screens etc. The other 999 points are for land, position and floorplan. And if you’ve learnt one thing off The Block then hopefully it’s that it is the price, property, and positional fundamentals that really count.

Unfortunately on all those three counts the contestants were doomed even before they started.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review, Melbourne’s million plus property magazine.

This article first appeared on Property Observer, Australia’s top site for property investment news and advice.

The projected priciest offering of the four Richmond houses on The Block is 37 Cameron Street, renovated by the hometown couple Jenna and Josh, according to James Buyer Advocates. All four properties go to auction this weekend.

37 Cameron Street (Jenna & Josh)

The buyers’ agency deemed 41 Cameron Street a close second – the one renovated by sisters Katrina and Amie, who chose Hocking Stuart’s Glen Coutinho to sell the house.

The key attribute of the likely top seller is its double-fronted façade. Ruth Roberts of Woodards is quoting the three-bedroom residence at $900,000 to $990,000. Jenna and Josh won the right to choose which of the four houses they wished to renovate.

41 Cameron Street (Katrina & Amie)

The ratings difference between the two was 615 out of 1000 and 595 out of 1000 under the James Buyers Advocates rankings system.

Biggin & Scott sales director Russell Cambridge has marketed the listing for Polly and Waz’s house at 39 Cameron Street, which has a 535 rating.

The lowest ranking of 502 was given to 43 Cameron Street, where Clayton Smith of Jellis Craig represents the contestants Tania and Rod.

39 Cameron Street (Polly & Waz)

“As a bit of fun we rated all The Block properties,” James Buyer Advocates principal Mal James says.

“While all contestants had done some great things, we are not sure we would put any on our shopping list.

“The internals may excite but the externals of no car parking, industrial street and commercial neighbours do not,” James says.

43 Cameron Street (Rod & Tania)

James Home Ratings examines pieces of information about a home and matches them against established buying criteria.

A rating below 550 means the property “has issues.” Between 550 and 650 is at the low end of average. Between 650 and 700 is at the high end of average. Between 700 and 800 is well above average. Between 800 and 850 is the best of its type, and above 850 is a rare gem.

“Nobody can predict with complete certainty the behaviour of each individual buyer or seller in a property exchange – however, it is possible to predict with a high level of certainty how large groups of human beings will react to a home.

“That is, there are a body of facts or truths when systematically analysed that show the operation of general laws with regards to home exchange,” James suggests.

The winner of The Block will be determined by the sale price above its undisclosed reserve, which means all four contestant couples have a chance no matter what rankings buyers agents give their renovated houses.

Channel Nine – THE BLOCK Auction Postscript
Congratulations to Channel Nine and The Block producers and selling agents for keeping it real. They could have made the whole auction night a charade but they didn’t – this is how Melbourne Auctions are right now for B and C grade properties – they are a very difficult sell and that was evidenced with 3 from 4 passing in.

We loved what the contestants did inside, but there was no way we could have bought any of them for investors or OYO’ers with the major negative issues they had outside the wonderful renovations – poor street, industrial neighbors, no car parking. These were mortal blows to the contestants before they even started – position is so important.

Well done to all who participated – it was true reality TV. Our ratings are still up for the Cameron St Richmond properties if you want to Google them. Also, well done to Biggin & Scott and Jellis Craig for their substantial donations to worthy charities.

Roll Up, Roll Up and see if today is a horror movie or not? 40 Fordham Camberwell: David Gillham: Bought After $1,650,000+. 1 bidder

Yes it was a bit of a dog of a day for the market this weekend, but it was not an absolute shocker.  And really, what else could you have expected!

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for $M+ was 52% on the 25 auctions we attended. We have seen worse.

The Weekly Review Bidderman, our demand indicator, was down at just 0.8 bidders per auction. The last time we saw that kind of number was back in 2008 – but hey did you expect a plethora of volcano auctions? Actually, there was not one volcano (4+ bidders) auction in the 25 we covered on Saturday.

We all knew buyers were not going to brave this weekend and who can blame them? This was confirmed by the fact that only 3 of the 25 auctions we covered sold under the hammer – that’s 12% or 1 in 8. Which again re-emphasises that if you do feel inclined to buy a home right now, you need to understand the processes and strategies involved in buying a home outside the auction hammer process.

The Market This Weekend

Who are the unluckiest sellers this year? I think we would all agree those who had their home on the market at 10.30 this Saturday morning. This weekend was always going to be a time of concern for the market, no matter which way you mentally packaged Friday’s stock market news.

And yes, there was some blood on the Colosseum floor. But before you move into a catatonic state about the health (or lack thereof) of Melbourne’s $M+ home market, let’s put this weekend into context.

Firstly, even without the doom and gloom we would have been most surprised to see a strong clearance rate this weekend. The choice of homes on offer was average at best, while good stock is hard to find.

Secondly, buyers, and there do seem to be a few around if you go by last week’s results, are now beginning to see some early Spring stock and some of that is more appealing than what was on offer this weekend.

Thirdly, after every ‘catastrophe’ there is a knee-jerk reaction where people, including buyers, simply find the air a little harder to breathe and things a little harder to do – especially make decisions and take even calculated sensible risks. But we do seem to all get back on the horse at some stage.

Fourthly, as we said last week, right now is pretty much a nothing market – and again this weekend, nothing much happened. But nothing much has happened for several months.

So we’re not apologising or talking it up or down – we’re just saying this weekend’s market was always going to be tough after yesterday’s financial news – and tough it was.

What will next week bring and the week after – who knows?

One thing we don’t know (for sure) is anything involving a short term time line. We can’t say if we are in for a GFC Mark II, something worse than a GFC or no real damage at all in the next six months.

On the flipside, yes it’s true that long term we have good job prospects, solid immigration and a healthy economy etc BUT……

….BUT, as buyers we all want to buy well and at the best time. We would have preferred to have bought a home at November 2008 prices instead of November 2007 prices or July 2011 prices instead of July 2010 prices. However taking that argument down another line, as buyers we would have preferred to buy homes in 2008 at market price rather than 2009 or 2010 at market price.

And you could feel that price was top of mind with almost every bidder or non-bidder this weekend. Is this the right time to buy? Can we get it cheaper? How cheap can we get it?

This almost overpowering mindfog was evident at almost all auctions this weekend and explains why the hammer rate was so poor, at 1 in 8.

So is it OK to buy now? Is this a window of opportunity or the start of the slippery slope?

It’s human nature as buyers to be wanting to get a great deal at any time. We as buyers want to make the best decisions on our needs and maximise our individual long-term emotional and financial outcomes for our family – just as sellers do. But there is wanting and there is making it happen.

Going forward, what will happen is that:

1. Some buyers will panic - We are all a bit circumspect and nervous, but if we become a panicked buyer we are a danger to our family.  The best way to avoid panic is to be clear on what it is that you, as the breadwinner or decision maker, are trying to achieve. What do you want for your family? A home with 4 bedrooms, a good backyard near schools and with a good floorplan in Boroondara or Bayside. Good – well stick to it. The condition of the Greek economy shouldn’t make you now think you want a 2 bedroom home in Epping with no backyard because that is somehow less risky than Hampton or Glen Iris.
2. Some buyers will not learn from history – Think what happened during and post the GFC, during the 90s drop, and during the 70s –  if you are as old as me. If you understand what is happening now you may be able to take advantage of it – even in little ways. It all adds up.
3. Some buyers will act – You can only take advantage of an opportunity if you act. Those that appear to be the wisest of men who pass on everything in life are not that. You can’t look after your family on inaction. Your spouse can’t sleep in your concern and your kids can’t play in your risk avoidance strategies.

Good things to think about when you realise you still need to do something:

Take your time as most sensible buyers have this year. If you see something you like then look at its characteristics: are they what you want and are they any good? If not move on – prices seem unlikely to be going north in a hurry.

Elevate your risk taking in negotiations and go harder on price. Especially if it’s been passed-in for longer than a few days. Providing you don’t have to have it at any cost, push a little harder. It’s not immoral to try for a good deal.

Aim higher – especially if you are above $2m. If you can stomach a bit more debt, then now may be the perfect time to look for something a bit better than what you could have afforded last year.

Marry a doctor or a somebody with equally good cash-flow because over the next few months some bargains may appear and cash flow kings will be able to take advantage of the debt bunnies.

We admit we have a complete bias towards property, so maybe our thoughts are not quite balanced. But maybe that’s why we feel some comfort right now. If the kitchen in stocks is a bit too hot maybe nervous investors could come over and try the relatively stable inner Melbourne housing market. Sure, it’s a bit rough around the edges, but it is solid inside.

The rest of this year is an opportunity for us all – and for some that opportunity will be a time for action, for others a time for reflection and for a few a time for panic.

Each of us is different. Good luck

$3M+ Market
We’ve had a few comments that we haven’t put up a $3M+ market report since May. That’s  been for a good reason – it would have been an almost blank sheet. However there have been some sputters of life from deep within and this could be a sign that the top-end engine is starting to turnover again. From our own company’s point of view we are now involved in 3 dealings after having been bereft of activity for most of winter at this level. Other recent notable sales at this level are:

• A sale in Boroondara this last month at just over $6M – completely off market
• 24 Boxshall St, Brighton (Sam Paynter of Hodges), which has been on the market for a long time and has finally changed hands just under $3M
• 4 Sussex St, Brighton (Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin) sold for a hard to believe $3,775,000. We attended that auction and the result was … well brilliant.
• and while down in Bayside, 2 Tennyson St, Brighton with Jonathan Dixon, after passing in at auction a month or so ago, has just sold for around that pass-in figure and well over $3,000,000
• 12a Harrison Crescent, Hawthorn, which had a rating too low to put up on our site, was sold by Sam Wilkinson of Kay and Burton for over $3,000,000
• Along with 3 Irymple Ave, Glen Iris (Iain Carmichael); 5 Story St, Parkville (Tom Roberts) and 80 South Road, Brighton (Barb Gregory) in the last week, the Top End over $3M is trying to work its way back into some form.

With a couple of big homes due to go to auction next weekend – amongst them 49 Sackville St Kew (James Tostevin); 7 Foote St Brighton (Phillip French of RT Edgar) and 83 Walsh St South Yarra (Peter Bennison and Justin Long) – we will begin to see if there is some air at the higher altitudes as we limp into the footy finals, traditionally a key indicator for activity in the early and late Spring markets at the $3M+ level.

Not everybody was stressed about life. 8 Blackfriars Toorak: Justin Long: Passed In $3,000,000. 0 bidders

Biggest Sale: 80 South Road Brighton: 1 bidder: Bought Afterwards $3,000,000.
On the market just a couple of years ago, this classic, well built modern home was back on the block for auction today. The main road would be an issue but other than that, it is hard to fault. They wanted and got a big ticket last time, and they are wanting towards $3m again. So I’m wondering firstly if it will sell and secondly if there will have been any appreciable price movement since last time. Jack Bongiorno is our master of ceremonies auctioning for the newly created Brighton MW team with Barb Gregory and Kate Strickland. Hebegins in front of a solid crowd of almost 90 and all packed into the front yard. Proceedings are started with a $2,700,000 vendor bid and bidder one joins in at $2,750,000. Half-time break comes and goes and there is no further bidding and so it’s passed in. $3,000,000 Bought after – good result. Just shy of a 10% increase in 2 years. (Mal James)

• 1/23 Washington St, Toorak: Hugh Hardy of Benmac: 2 bidders: Bought for $2,870,000
• 18 Knutsford, Balwyn: Richard Earle; 0 bidders: Bought After $2,730,000

Biggest Pass In: 8 Blackfriars Close, Toorak: Justin Long of Marshall White: Passed in $3,000,000: 0 bidders
Auctioneer Justin Long had a commanding presence as he addressed the group of 45 in attendance.  In his preamble, Mr Long spoke passionately, describing it as a “wonderful, wonderful property” and explained its history.  Mr Long opened with a vendor bid of $3,000,000 and requested $50,000 rises.  Despite his best efforts to entice bidding, all those in attendance stood as spectators and the property was passed in at $3,000,000. (Kate Agnoleto)

Bidderbuzz Auction: 35 Nelson Road, Camberwell: Michael Hingston of Jellis Craig: Bought $1,665,000: 3 bidders.
This was always going to be an interesting auction, and I was looking forward to it. The property is quite a good one – north facing rear, on good land size within close proximity to Camberwell Junction. Fortunately the rained stayed away and Michael Hingston (backed up by Steven Abbott) did a good job directing traffic in front of around 70 people – and you could sense there were a buzz here. Opening on a vendor bid of $1,350,000 it did not take too long for the crowd to get involved and two bidders fought things out in $10,000 increments to see the property on the market at $1,460,000 – a good reserve I thought. Bidder 3 entered the fray and all of sudden this auction was off and running. At $1,600,000 the auction seemed like it was coming to end yet two bidders (one on the phone, that often looked out of the running a number of times and in the end finally ran out of patience and/or money – how often do we see that?) went tit-for-tat and the auction finished at $1,665,000. Good result for the vendor here and a professionally run campaign by Michael Hingston. (Adam Woledge)

Buyer Masterclass: What to look for to see if you are going to have choice. Also reprinted  in Melbourne’s Million Dollar magazine The Weekly Review.

We only buy (good) homes

Yes they still sell homes at $3,000,000. 80 South Road Brighton: Jack Bongiorno, Maddie Kennedy and Barb Gregory: Bought After $3,000,000. 1 bidder

Last week we covered the Early Spring Market

There’s no guarantee we’ll see a lift in the housing market as we go into Spring this year. On the supply side, there’s a build-up of long term unsold properties (stales) and a compounding shortage of exciting, well priced new stock. On the demand side, buyers have had a particularly hard time of late – not so much in finding homes, but in finding homes of quality; however when those homes are found they sell well, proving there is a solid level of underlying demand.

Buyers do want to buy and they’ve been out there in good numbers most weekends. Our demand indicator Bidderman, has shown an average of two bidders an auction some weekends. But they have proven to be stubborn on homes that are not market priced.

There are actually two Spring markets: early Spring (September and October) and late Spring (November). They’re intimately connected. According to Sam Gamon of Chisholm and Gamon, what happens in late spring is always greatly influenced by the early Spring results. It’s all about confidence says his Elwood auction partner, Torsten Kasper. “A few weeks of good results in early spring may lay the platform for an increased level of homes for mid to late spring.”

On the other hand, David Hart of Buxton Brighton says there’s a strong pattern favouring a late spring recovery – at least in Bayside. “Human nature being what it is, many people wait until they are almost out of time to put their property on the market. And there are those who purchase October onwards, who need to sell their own property prior to Christmas. I expect this year will be no different.”

So what about price?

Despite the continued negativity from overseas, Buxton’s Mark Earle can’t envisage any significant changes in housing prices. “Fundamentally there is a shortage of houses in Melbourne with population growth. And Melbourne has been widely recognised as the best performing city in the country in terms of stability over recent years.” Cycles seem to be getting shorter, he points out – “take the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent boom market of 2009” – and things can change quickly.

According to Benmac’s Iain Carmichael, given the low stock levels, prices are likely to hold. “Agents will have far less trouble achieving full results for good family homes in the $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 range. Vendors at the very top end have a tendency to feel that their property is somehow guaranteed to appreciate in the face of a steadying market. Curious really!”

Kay and Burton director Ross Savas also believes that prices will be steady. “The fundamentals of our economy are still very good and we have amazing employment levels in our country. So as long as nothing occurs out of left field I believe prices will hold in Victoria.”

So when do you buy and sell?

Peter Kennett of Hocking Stuart, says his advice to sellers is to get in early rather than late. “Late spring is when supply usually increases with more motivated sellers as they have most likely bought!!” As for buyers, David Hart, of Buxton Brighton, believes that the later in the year before Christmas, the more motivated sellers are to lock in a result. “Although you should never pass up the opportunity to purchase the right property on the assumption that if you wait, you might get an early Christmas present!”

With the mix of school holidays, horse racing weekends and the shift in the Grand Final from the last week in September to the first week in October, there are effectively only 16 Saturdays that will give a vendor the traditional four Saturday auction program,  points out Richard Winneke, of Jellis Craig. “And of these no doubt some will be more popular than others – creating super Saturdays on dates like 27th August , 24th September and 3rd December.”

For bargain hunters, late spring may be a better market than early due to vendors having to sell and time running out. However you do take the risk that what you may not be there by late Spring.

This is where patience presents a conundrum for buyers: if many of us pass on buying in early spring then the late spring surge may not happen at all. And come Christmas time we will still be in a buyers’ market but we won’t have bought. The question is then: how long are you prepared to wait?

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Plus property magazine

In the first of 2 part major report this week on The Big Spring Predictions we cover the Early Spring Market

Home market predictions are like footy predictions in many ways – a bit of fun, not to be taken too seriously and to be treated on the basis of past results.

Sometimes we agents get it right and sometimes we don’t. So why do we do it? We do it for the same reasons that footy fills up just as many pages at the end of the week as it does at the start – because buyers, sellers and market watchers like to read our opinions and insights and they do so in just as great a numbers as those who watch a blockbuster footy game every auction Saturday.

With Spring only a short time away, the musings, the theories and the rumours are surfacing again. Hence we called all the big guns into a Roman Toga type gathering to ask them what will happen in both the early and late Spring markets in the run up till Santa comes.

“Love is in the Air and there is no home more beautiful than one being auctioned on the perfect sun-drenched Spring day with the fence painted, the light streaming in and the garden looking stunning” says Marshall White’s Justin Long – with some poetry and just a little bias.

Historically though, over the last decades Melbourne buyers and sellers have agreed with this statement.  John Clarkson of Hocking Stuart says the market swells by as much as 200% even 300% in terms of activity in Spring months when compared to the winter ones.

However, while every agent assumes the supply of stock is sure to increase on what we have now, there is also a thinking that this increase will be less this year than what we’ve seen on average over the past 10 years. There is universal agreement at the moment that we will not see stock levels approaching what we saw last year. 2010 was a big year at the beginning, in the middle and at the end in terms of activity. So far 2011 has not been – and it will not be.

Why is Spring looking to have new stock shortages? According to Kay and Burton director Ross Savas, it’s because vendors are perceiving that the market is under pressure, so they are holding off placing their homes on the market till conditions improve.

Benmac’s Iain Carmichael agrees: “Unlike last year there are few opportunistic sellers thinking, ‘Wow, our home is now worth a mint – let’s go!’. So the only driving forces are the traditional sellers such as upscalers, downsizers, and job relocators.”

Is this just false spin to get sellers to act? We don’t think so. Richard Winneke of Jellis Craig for instance reports that most agents are admitting to a 25% volume reduction of high end stock being transacted between this year and last. Balwyn and Kew are down around 20% in overall transactions (not just the high end).

In Bayside Jason Gill paints a similar picture of diminishing turnover but uses a different measurement: “In Brighton in July 2009, 2010 and 2011 we have seen stock on the market go from to 92 to 125 to 150 meaning older overpriced stock is simply not selling.”  What this means, he adds, “is that the stock that comes on in Spring will need to be of good quality and be priced correctly, rather than more of the same, if it is to excite the market.”

In our opinion, with the type of market contraction (turnover more so than price) we have had in 2011 we are going to need some excitement to kick start the market in the way that it took the Chinese community in 2009 to lead us from the GFC.

Sellers want prices and while buyers do as well, they also want good quality at the upper end levels. More of the same will only compound the problems of this market for both buyers and sellers.

For vendors who are prepared to swim against the tide, there could be rewards, says Steve Burke of Jellis Craig says, and sure we know he’s biased but he’s right on this occasion. “Forget about when the roses bloom in the garden, it is all about the demand and supply equation. As we are currently in a market place of perceived negative conditions I believe that there will be a real shortage of stock at the start of Spring. This will definitely favor the brave vendors who will be able to capture a market place where there is little competition.”

Next we look at Stales, Price and The Late Spring Market.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Plus property magazine

The big talk on the property market is auction clearance rates: the fact they are well below last year (true) and that they are perhaps even lower than what agents are claiming (maybe).

Last year auction clearance rates across Melbourne were regularly in the 70s percentage-wise. This year they are in the 50s – so it is fair to conclude that this year fewer buyers and sellers agree on price and therefore the market is regarded as weaker than 2010.

But while some journalists and publications are arguing that the ‘true’ clearance rate may in fact be lower because agents do not report every unsold auction, some agents  are arguing that the emphasis on a Melbourne-wide clearance rate is also misleading.

Jack Bongiorno from Marshall White, for instance, argues that while papers like The Age are reporting clearance rates in the 50s, his company has seen clearance rates in the 70s throughout May and June . Andrew James of Hocking Stuart Armadale agrees, saying his office is also seeing clearance rates in the 70s all year.

So The Age is saying one thing and agents another. Well there’s nothing new there.

Who is right and who is wrong – and does it really matter?

Well,  they are both right. And as for whether it really matters, the answer is yes – and no. Is that a splinter I can feel in my bottom from sitting on the fence? Well no, in fact this goes to the crux of what clearance rates can and cannot tell buyers.

According to Andrew McCann of BenMac, clearance rates measure across a very broad number of suburbs, price bands and demographics. “The reality is,” he says, “that some parts of the market will always perform better than others so it is not unrealistic to think that while some areas are soft, others are strong. A good case in point is that our firm sold 11 from 12 Auctions last weekend, while the market returned 56%.”

Scott Patterson of Kay and Burton supports this: “The clearance rate in The Age of 59% is a general rate for the whole of Melbourne and does not reflect what is going on in certain areas.”  Hawthorn for instance has had a clearance rate of 80% for the year so far, which seems a different picture from the outskirts of Melbourne.”

This makes it important for buyers to take Melbourne-wide clearance rates with a grain of salt.

Brad Pearce of Miles in Ivanhoe says that as a buyer you need to be area-specific on clearance rates to ensure you are in line with your market. “Buyers can become too confident with the lower Melbourne wide clearance rates and miss opportunities to buy in their area, where in fact properties are still selling well.”

Hawthorn and Kew, for instance, are currently shining with clearance rates in the 70s and 80s, according to Richard Winneke of Jellis Craig. But next door, Camberwell, Canterbury and Balwyn North have had clearance rates in the 50s so far this year, he points out.

Clearance Rates are wonderful things for analysts and journalists, says Steve Abbott of Jellis Craig, “but they are only part of the story for buyers and sellers.” Kay & Burton’s Michael Gibson reminds us too that clearance rates only represent a few hours within the selling week.

And according to BenMac’s Iain Carmichael: “Some weeks we have shockers and the next it’s a dream, so clearance rates are area specific, very cyclical and not always predictable.”

As a buyer, along with clearance rates, you also need to look at stats on areas, on specific agencies, on different types of homes, price ranges, stock level indicators, Bidderman (number of bidders per auction) and a variety of other measures.

Indeed, while $M+ Melbourne may be down on turnover this year, of the last 10 homes we as buyer agents went after in the last two weeks of May, all were sold quickly (and not all to us). So to our mind,  the late May 2011 “good home” index (describing the kinds of home we go after) had a clearance rate of 100%

The buyer message in terms of Melbourne-wide clearance rates is to understand what they represent and to not limit your research to the changing weekly auction headline number when determining your individual buying strategy.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus Magazine

MALVERN EAST, 34 Emo Rd: The crowds were out in force again. Here, nearly 200 people crowded the street to watch Richard James (Jellis Craig) in action. Passed in, $1,925,000, 1 bidder

James Private Client Briefings contain far greater and more client specific detail than what you see below and are available for full service James Search and Negotiate clients throughout Melbourne.

For a private, confidential and no obligation discussion on what is really happening in your street, precinct and suburb from a buyer’s perspective contact Gina on (+613) 9804 3133 or 0457 835 255 from James Buyer Advocates.

These meetings can be phone, skype (overseas clients) and one on one including relevant sales results, off markets, agent negotiation trends, real market values on specific homes and practical strategies that are working for buyers at auction, private sale, off market or expressions of interest.

A sample of testimonials from satisfied clients http://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/testimonials.php

CANTERBURY, 12 Parlington St: Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig) stands centre stage, in front of an audience of around 55. Bought under the hammer, $2,015,000, 2 bidders. (Watch our auction video)

Key Points:

• Bigger crowd numbers out there today.
• I attended 5 auctions  and there were  3 bidders at 4 of these. Partly prices have altered (for the better) and partly due to better stock on the market today. There will be even better offerings next weekend – May 28.
• Buyer advocates out in some force.
• Some bidding for themselves seemed very timid – one bidder was like a mouse and unsurprisingly missed out buying the property.
• James Tostevin, Marshall White Hawthorn “The market is fickle and hard to get a read on at the moment. My team involved in 6 today and 4 sold”
• Geoff Hall, Noel Jones Camberwell “Sold 4 from 4 today – multiple bidders at most of those – 46 Auburn Parade quoted at $1.05-$1.15m – no bids at auction but four parties approached after the auction and property sold at reserve price.  Market is looking a bit subdued this winter, good time to take a holiday”
• Balwyn 13 Campbell - James Tostevin – Bought for $3,200,000 – see our report
• Hawthorn 28 Fordholm – Desiree Wakim of Marshall White – A smidgen under $3,000,000.

HAWTHORN EAST, 56 St Helens Rd: Stop right there, and they did. Peter Batrouney (Jellis Craig) passes the property in for $1,520,000, no bidders. But sells after auction for $1,620,000

Are we in for some Super Saturdays at the end of this month?

Glen Coutinho, Hocking Stuart (Hawthorn): “Yes, some super Saturdays are coming. The Easter break had a lot of homes starting late, the first campaign date start was the end of April. So the end of May auction weeks will be big.”

MALVERN, 33 Wheatland Rd: Steven Abbott (Jellis Craig), finds a lone bidder in the small crowd of 20, but passes in the property for $1,050,000.

Are we in for some Super Saturdays at the end of this month?

Justin Long, Marshall White (Armadale): “There are traditionally 4 or 5 very solid auction weekends in May, but with Easter falling so late in the piece, the first 2 weekends have not found favour with vendors. As a result, the 21^st and in particular the 28^th May are shaping up as very solid weekends. Watch out though: I have a feeling the 18^th and 25^th of June will also be big as we lead up to a winter, school holiday driven hiatus.”

A few smiles were found on Saturday and here was one of them. David Hart (Buxton) with friend at 48 Regent St, Brighton East. Passed in $1,275,000, 1 bidder

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for $M+ properties in Melbourne was 55% on the 29 auctions we attended. We covered around half the $M+ auctions this weekend. May is looking very lean for auctions and today was almost a non event auction wise

The Weekly Review Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 1.2 bidders per auction. Considering the low numbers on offer at auction this was not a good sign for sellers going forward.

The Perils of Emotional Bidding
The big auction issue for me this weekend was how bidders were bidding. I went to three auctions with a total of  nine bidders and saw some very surprising and costly bidding.

One example was the auction at 48 Emo Road, Malvern East. This is a lovely little single fronted in one of my favourite family and investment areas, the Ardrie Park precinct in Malvern East. Middle of the road quality, not bad for those just starting out in the home ownership stakes – plenty of space inside and outside and good flow. Good feel.

Anyway the auction is about to start and a nice healthy crowd of around 100 has gathered to hear the pearls from a not-so-old stager who rarely auctions these days – Peter Bennison.

Peter calls for an opening bid, to which one very enthusiastic bidder responds with a strong and emotional bid of $950,000. With repeated calls for further $10,000 rises unsuccessful, Peter takes a strategic half time break. On returning, he unsurprisingly declares that the property will be passed-in to the lone bidder if no further bidding. After a second bidder pipes in offering that elusive $10,000 rise, the original bidder responds emotionally and strongly with a crowd hushing $1,000,000. Perhaps the bidder should have asked the “Is it on the market?” question – because this was well above the original quote of $890,000 to $950,000.

What it also means is that the auction will now be completed behind closed doors with some argy bargy instead of cleanly in the street and under the hammer, which a good question could have allowed. The final result of $1,150,000 is decided inside a few minutes later. Wow! I know the buyer saved the fee of getting professional help and normally I am against such flexible post auction reserves but really if a  buyer wants to pay then they should be allowed to – it’s a free country. For the very experienced Mr Bennison this bidder was a gift, and he knew exactly how to work this  situation to the benefit of his client, the vendor (low quality agents may not have recognized the opportunity presented).

There are a couple of things that come from this as lessons to first home buyers and DIYers:

1) As a bidder, by all means look strong to ward off other nervous buyers. But it doesn’t help to look emotional – an experienced agent will pick up on that and it will cost you money

2) In this market you have to test every step of the way. Ask questions. There was nothing wrong with the opening bid but the winning bidder’s second bid could and in fact should have been presented in a very different way. Because it wasn’t, the post auction problems snowballed from this one decision.

3) In this market, on a $890,000 to $950,000 quote, and with no proven competition above $960,000 why would you be rushing up the pole to an incredible $1,150,000? If you have to pay it then at least take a few hours of testing to get there.

There’s no doubt that it’s a good home and I certainly would have recommended buying it. And maybe the result would have been no different if a professional was managing the buying side. But I think a number of safety procedures could have been implemented prior to agreeing to that amount.

There were further interesting results along these lines at the auctions at 13 Maskell St Brighton (Peter Kennett) and 7 McClaughlin Sandringham (Mark Earle). Please see today’s auction reports for more details.

Now back to the market – Future Stock:

Auctions – May is going to be very quiet compared to May 2010, when we witnessed well in excess of 1000 $M+ sales across Melbourne. Melbourne’s Inner East and Bayside represent a majority of  Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus sales, and predicted auction numbers in these areas for the four weeks in May are as follows: this past weekend 45, next week 43, and the last two weeks in May, 105 and 106. Even though there were five Saturdays in May 2010, there would need to be an incredible number of private sales this year to get the final numbers of solds anywhere near last year, and that is not likely to happen with the current market mood.

Off Markets – According to agents there is a strong trend towards private and off-market sales. Nick Johnstone, of JP Dixon (Brighton) says: “We are seeing a definite swing towards private and off market sales which shows a transitional phase in the market.” 

Other agent comments:

David Oster, Jellis Craig (Ivanhoe): “The 28^th May will be a Strong Saturday. It is the last clear Saturday before School holidays.”

Richard Winneke, Jellis Craig (Hawthorn): “May 21, May 28 & June 4 are 3 bigger Saturdays and then many owners will hold off selling until August.”

Melbourne Wide April Wash Up :
Volume -  Has a lot changed in Million Dollar Melbourne between April 2010 and April 2011? Well, yes and no. April 2010 had around the same number of REIV reported $1m+ sales (there may be a 10% variance with the chance of late reported April 2011 sales to bring the April 2010 and April 2011 numbers closer together) but on a count of over 500 buy/sells, not much has changed in terms of volume.

However, even though the last market turned in April 2010, May 2010 was a boom month with well over 1000 REIV reported $m+ sales throughout greater Melbourne. Therefore May 2011 will be watched to see if it can get anywhere near those sorts of numbers, however we don’t think that will happen. We are still seeing a $M+ home bought every ninety (90) minutes somewhere in Melbourne and that was with Easter taking up a fair bit of the month.

Let’s look at a couple of suburbs which we randomly selected to give a spread of Greater Melbourne $M+ reported sales for the month of April 2011 compared to April 2010.

Price – In our opinion, backed up by REIV Median price results, we feel prices are definitely flat or falling and have been for the most part of this year and a lot of last year. When we say flat or falling we don’t mean plummeting – we mean a drop by as much as 10% over the last 12 months. However we are still seeing plenty of instances of the old property truism: If it is well located and has some WOW and the right price to attract multiple bidders then it is still possible for the ultimate buyer to be paying more than you would have expected last year.

Winter is upon us and buyers and sellers alike appear in a less enthusiastic mood than even a few weeks ago. Even so, we have bought more $1M+ homes this year to date than this time last year at the same time.  And why wouldn’t you buy now, unless you know something we don’t? Price and choices have been considerably better than last year.

$3M+ Market Report:
Back from a week or two off, this market now, has a fairly clear run till Christmas, with a only brief breaks for a couple of holiday weekends.

A couple of strong results today:

• Elwood 18 Normanby (Paul Sutherland) – Bought for $3,375,000, 4 bidders – see our video auction
• Camberwell 26 Alma (Alastair Craig) – Bought After – $Over $3,000,000 at asking – no bidders – there is that strange bidding thing again

Over the next four to six weeks we should see more choice and some reasonable activity (although not expected anywhere near the levels of last year), as the May market is a traditional agent preferred selling time. Why? Well there is a good stretch of time until Queens Birthday weekend to run an uninterrupted campaign. Stock Quality is the unknown.

Come July things will be relatively quiet as there is a general sellers’ feeling (rightly or wrongly) that good homes do not look their best at this time of the year and accordingly a number of high end selling agents take winter holidays in Europe and therefore do not program campaigns to be run in their absence.

In the post Easter week or so there have been ten or more high end sales including the representative  half dozen below

• 15 St Ninians in Brighton for between $8m and $9m – perhaps not a lot more than what is was sold for less than 2 years ago (need to look up sale time to be absolutely sure of date) – Justin Follett of Kay and Burton
• 255 New Brighton for between $5.5m and $6m – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin of Buxton
• 50 Hotham St East Melbourne which had been on the market for at least 6 months for $7million – Paul Richards of Hocking Stuart – on the market for a fair bit of last year and also a failed auction. Nonetheless a reasonable price – not everything the sellers wanted – but more than had been offered at times in the past by buyers. A good result for both parties.
• 150 Clarendon East Melbourne – the Salta apartments saw Anton Wongtrakun deliver another big sale at $5,200,000 for Unit No 4
• Out to the paddocks of Lower Plenty with a Marketnews favourite Rocco Montanaro of Morrison Kleemand who achieved close to $3m on an Expressions of Interest Campaign for a good home on 7 acres at 75 Cleveland.
• And we round up our selection of high end Easter Sales with a $6M+ sale at Mount Eliza 15 Freemans Road – Michelle Skoglund of Aqua

In summary over Easter the market at this level has not been dead, but definitely subdued – there is increasingly a dampening mood in terms of both buyer and seller confidence. Time will tell if this is a short or longer term phenomenon. Price will play a important part going forward as we seemingly move into more uncertain market conditions – i.e. ones that are not as clear as they have been in the past 2 years since we awoke from the GFC. Overall the market now and in fact all of 2011 has not been strong at the $3m+ level – but there are still enough transactions (especially in Bayside) of sufficient value to avoid holding a wake just yet.

With winter approaching and a fair amount of stock available we think it is a buyers’ market and the future is best described as – “uncertain times”.

Finishing on a positive note our James Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (rentals are improving) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

The Big Issue: Klarity Kris and Architect Adam discuss the big issue of the week – does this market, with prices currently dropping, have elevated risks for buyers ? See what the two have to say by clicking on the live action.

Auction Video: This week Cafe Guy heads to Elwood on what was a big auction day for the Port Phillip area. Watch  the auction video of  18 Normandy Rd (Sutherland Farrelly) by clicking on the live action.

Buyer Masterclass: Double-fronter or two storey, single-fronted cottage? Architect Adam explores this dilemma in this week’s Buyer Masterclass. It’s a great article check it out!

We Only Buy Homes and Happy Mothers Day Mum and in fact to all Mums – we love you all!

“No way mate - this market is fighting back– taking no prisoners today (April 9th).” John Bongiorno. Malvern 54 Stanhope. Bought $3,170,000. 3 bidders.

Week Ending 30th April: Back from a week or two off, this market now, has a fairly clear run till Christmas, with a only brief breaks for a couple of holiday weekends.

Over the next four to six weeks we should see more choice and some reasonable activity (although not expected anywhere near the levels of last year), as the May market is a traditional agent preferred selling time. Why? Well there is a good stretch of time until Queens Birthday weekend to run an uninterrupted campaign. Stock Quality is the unknown.

Come July things will be relatively quiet as there is a general sellers’ feeling (rightly or wrongly) that good homes do not look their best at this time of the year and accordingly a number of high end selling agents take winter holidays in Europe and therefore do not program campaigns to be run in their absence.

In the post Easter week or so there have been ten or more high end sales including the representative  half dozen below

• 15 St Ninians in Brighton for between $8m and $9m – perhaps not a lot more than what is was sold for less than 2 years ago (need to look up sale time to be absolutely sure of date) – Justin Follett of Kay and Burton
• 255 New Brighton for between $5.5m and $6m – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin of Buxton
• 50 Hotham St East Melbourne which had been on the market for at least 6 months for $7million – Paul Richards of Hocking Stuart – on the market for a fair bit of last year and also a failed auction. Nonetheless a reasonable price – not everything the sellers wanted – but more than had been offered at times in the past by buyers. A good result for both parties.
• 150 Clarendon East Melbourne – the Salta apartments saw Anton Wongtrakun deliver another big sale at $5,200,000 for Unit No 4
• Out to the paddocks of Lower Plenty with a Marketnews favourite Rocco Montanaro of Morrison Kleemand who achieved close to $3m on an Expressions of Interest Campaign for a good home on 7 acres at 75 Cleveland.
• And we round up our selection of high end Easter Sales with a $6M+ sale at Mount Eliza 15 Freemans Road – Michelle Skoglund of Aqua

In summary over Easter the market at this level has not been dead, but definitely subdued – there is increasingly a dampening mood in terms of both buyer and seller confidence. Time will tell if this is a short or longer term phenomenon. Price will play a important part going forward as we seemingly move into more uncertain market conditions – i.e. ones that are not as clear as they have been in the past 2 years since we awoke from the GFC. Overall the market now and in fact all of 2011 has not been strong at the $3m+ level – but there are still enough transactions (especially in Bayside) of sufficient value to avoid holding a wake just yet.

With winter approaching and a fair amount of stock available we think it is a buyers’ market and the future is best described as – “uncertain times”.

Finishing on a positive note our James Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (rentals are improving) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Finishing on a positive note our Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (improving rentals as well) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Week Ending 16th April:The $3m action this week was away from auctions.

The drought in the Balwyn Formula – big price, small land, new home – was broken again with Maurice Di Marzio getting 59 Hosken Street, Balwyn North away in the high $3 millions. That’s the third in a week on the back of the two biggies reported last weekend.

Canterbury, 11 Chaucer Close, with Boroondara doyen Peter Mitchell of Marshall White, got the same sort of high $3 millions price.

Hawthorn, Harcourt St, was a hot place to be this week with Nick Ptak getting 79a away for just under $3.4 million (we think) and one of the results of recent times. Peter Vigano of Jellis Craig  got $3.625 million for 42 (we did not see that price coming)

Speaking of good results, Marcus Chiminello got a price in the high $3 millions for 2/264 Walsh St, South Yarra. It’s not our job to talk agents up but in a slow apartment market Marcus has got a number of solid results.

St Kilda West, 10 Loch St, with John Holdsworth sold for $3,650,000.

Andrew McMillan from Benmac got 367 Beaconsfield St, Kilda West away in the $4m to $5m range after a very lengthy campaign (probably due to previous asking prices).

At Auction today 68 Hopetoun Rd,  Toorak with Jellis Craig’s Steve Abbott, sold afterwards for $3.05 million. That was up a few hundred thousand dollars on the last time it sold around a year ago.

Week Ending 9th April: The strongest week this year for the $3m+ Top End market:

South Yarra 43 Marne St: Nicole Gleeson of Kay and Burton: Well over the $12,000,000 quote range making Domain Precinct land values at $8,000 per sqm for the bigger blocks.

Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett also of Kay and Burton: North of $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home that needs some reworking and a tennis court.

While still in Hawthorn Mr Nice Guy and Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (Modern in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both a little down on ambitious asks but nonetheless solid prices for what they were.

But wait there’s more and was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula- new build, small block, overpriced. Well on a technicality were are still credible as it’s neighbouring Kew; but with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million’ish, the death of this market maybe a little exaggerated. However please it is only two sales, but they were biggies.

The news doesn’t stop for sellers there with period home successes at 50 Wattle Valley Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) selling under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000; 54 Stanhope Malvern with Rae Tomlinson also under the hammer for $3,170,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Bayside has recorded a few strong sales as well with 29 Bay Street Brighton (Bert Stewart of Buxton) selling post auction over $3,550,000 and the final result put north facing (no view) Golden Mile land over $3,200 per sq metre. That is a steady as she goes price similar to last year Golden mile (no view) buys. And another $3m+ sale with a strange twist (all non bidders asked to leave) at 40 Drake Brighton (Ian Jackson).

While on land sales 1073 Malvern Road Toorak (Justin Long) passed in at $3,225,000 and a reserve was offered – not taken up – two new bidders appeared and a second auction took place resulting in a sale well over the pass in figure.

Why all this activity? Pass-ins are still languishing in large numbers without much interest. However its all about quality and new stock and buyer confidence. All three things happened this week -

1. buyers felt better in themselves (confidence);
2. buyers felt this week had some real quality offerings (quality)
3. and buyers couldn’t see a lot of stock coming one (limited new stock)

Post Easter is no Buyer lay down misere after today’s results.

Like many auctions this weekend, a lot of standing around, not doing much. MALVERN EAST, 9 Lewes Drive: Passed-in at $2,500,000 with two bidders. Anthony Grimwade (RT Edgar)

At 6pm on Saturday the James Clearance rate for $M+ was 57% on the 30 auctions we attended. That was well down on last week’s cameo of excitement, but understandable giving the quality change between this week and last week at the Top End.

Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 1.5 bidders per auction. However the quality of the offerings was one of the lowest this year.

While there were a few volcanoes (4 or more bidders), what was more interesting was that 1 in 3 homes were ducks meaning they didn’t get a bid a all. We think that was a confirmation of the market reaction to this weekend’s lack of Top End quality.

In fact, only 1 in 5 of $M+ homes monitored this weekend sold under the hammer.  The rest sold before or soon after – or didn’t sell at all. That’s an Under the Hammer Clearance Rate of 20%.

What that means is that in this current market buyers need a lot more than just a ‘hand up in the air and hope’ strategy to buy homes well.

Market Summary:

There were plenty of auctions at the lower levels, e.g. at or around a million dollars, but many lacked any WOW factor.

A number of the key selling agents were off this weekend on holidays and, as with many buyers, they seem to have turned their attention to pursuits other than buying and selling.

It was hard to find a property over $2 million up for auction. The only $3 million plus auction we saw in Toorak was at 68 Hopetoun Road with Steve Abbott of Jellis Craig – an art deco that seems to get sold every 12 months (see report below).

The REIV median prices came out this week and rightly confirmed what the market has been saying for some time: Prices are weaker.

This year to date has been a positive one for buyers with reduced competition, more choice and lower prices. On the flip side the buying opportunities are only such if you take them (a Steve Abbott auction line).

Next week, there are almost no auctions and not too much the week after.

Post Easter, as we said last week, may or may not be a different story. But our feeling is that quality choice will dry up and the big issue will become finding a rose amongst the thorns, the pass-ins and the stales. If those roses are hard to find then prices for them will firm as new quality drops with discretionary vendors adopting a wait and see strategy.

What Sold Well – Volcanoes with 4 or more bidders

• Albert Park, 62 Barrett St – Peter Simmons – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,575,000
• Hawthorn, 23 Falmouth St – Hamish Tostevin – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,330,000
• Hawthorn, 11 College St – Richard Earle – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,409,000
• Kew, 36 Maitland Ave – David Oster – Land site – $1,345,000
• Toorak, 80 Grange Rd – Rodney Morley – Nicely renovated Period Town Residence – $1,500,000

$3M+ market: Overall, the high end at $3 million+ appears as weak as it has been for 12 months. Although  a shortage of new quality stock post Easter has put some zing back into the market as some buyers are forced to act.  Growing kids, divorce, lifestyle, whatever cannot wait for everyone indefinitely. Go to our $3m+ report to see most of the last weeks’ 10+ sales.

Michael Armstrong, Kay & Burton, South Yarra: “I think we can expect a fairly normal market post Easter.  Market conditions are settled and stock levels looking forward to May/June are lighter than what we’ve experienced in the past couple of months.  Vendors have had to adjust their expectations in recent times and buyers with long term views have realised that the past few weeks have presented them with good opportunities. The better quality offerings will continue to attract competition and alternatively  buyers will continue to deal harshly with those vendors (and agents) who price properties incorrectly.”

ST KILDA, 2 Marine Pde: On a bit of a rollercoaster day, it was apt to have the Scenic Railway at Luna Park as the backdrop of this Claudio Perruzza (Biggin Scott) auction. Passed in, $1,850,000, no bidders

Biggest Sale we covered: 68 Hopetoun Rd, Toorak, Steve Abbott (Jellis Craig); after auction, $3,050,000, 3 bidders
“This art deco property with Heritage One (HO1) overlay was looking for a committed buyer to make it a home. A vendor bid of $2,800,000 got the proceedings underway and the first bidder entered the race with a bid of $2,850,000. A second vendor bid of $2,900,000 signalled that the bidding was still some way off from the desired sale price. Auctioneer Steven Abbott wouldn’t entertain an increment of $5,000, demanding at least $10,000 to stay in the race. Despite keen bidding, this property was passed in at $3,020,000 but this was just the start of the negotiations. Bought after for $3,050,000.” (Debbie McTaggart)

Biggest Pass In we covered: 12 Dudley Pde, Canterbury, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White); passed in $2,000,000, no bidders
“Doug McLauchlan took centre stage in the very big, leafy backyard of this great property and looked ready for action. Assisted by his Marshall White team, Mr McLauchlan explained that the circa 1923 home had been in the same family for a massive 72 years. But even the sentimentalists amongst us in the crowd weren’t ready to put their hands in the air and bid. Mr McLauchlan opened and closed on a vendor bid of $2,000,000.” (Jen Milligan)

Auction Video: Architect Adam heads to sunny Hawthorn this week to witness a ripper auction at 23 Falmouth St, a Marshall White property with auctioneer Hamish Tostevin.  Click on the live action.

Big Issue and Weekend Reflections: Coming back after the Easter holidays.

Two Weeks Off: Marketnews will be on holiday for two weeks with our next Marketnews on the 7th of May. A number of agents are talking up the 21st and 28th of May as possible Super Saturdays (as buyers let’s hope so). For James Buyer Advocates it will be business as usual.

We Only Buy Homes and have a safe Easter break:

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KEW, 19 Stirling St: The crowd was there but the bidders weren't. Richard Earle (Jellis Craig), passed in $1,700,000, no bidders

To be frank I wasn’t that excited about running around to auctions today (which is very unusual for me). We videoed the 23 Falmouth St, Hawthorn auction with one of my favourite agents Hamish Tostevin and 4 bidders. But after that I cleaned up my paperwork and looked forward to a week off.

Although this has been the best buyers’ market for over two years with choice and falling prices, one thing that as buyers we should consider over the Easter break is the amount of stock that was bought at auction and privately in May and June of last year. Early winter last year there was a concerted agent mopping up campaign of stales and pass-ins. I remember looking at some stats on actual sales at that time and thinking “impressive, more than I thought”. If that happens this year and new stock tightens then, as with last year, late winter and early spring will not be as good a time to buy as you think. Anyway, despite many agents implying they are 24/7, I’m not. I’m away for a week and then I’ll be back on board full bore immediately after Easter. Have a good break with your family. Life’s short. Take care, Adam.

Week Ending 16th April:The $3m action this week was away from auctions.

The drought in the Balwyn Formula – big price, small land, new home – was broken again with Maurice Di Marzio getting 59 Hosken Street, Balwyn North away in the high $3 millions. That’s the third in a week on the back of the two biggies reported last weekend.

Canterbury, 11 Chaucer Close, with Boroondara doyen – Peter Mitchell of Marshall White got the same sort of high $3 millions price.

Hawthorn, Harcourt St, was a hot place to be this week with Nick Ptak getting 79a away for just under $3.4 million (we think) and one of the results of recent times. Peter Vigano of Jellis Craig  got $3.625 million for 42 (we did not see that price coming)

Richard Winneke, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn: “We expect a busy May. Buyers will notice a lot more property coming onto the market. In the meantime, over the next two  weeks, there will be very little to choose from except passed in properties from March and February. “

“Oh Yeah Sure Buddy - you are joking, aren't you?” Sold for an undisclosed amount, $500,000 over reserve. 4 bidders. Ivanhoe East 32 Warncliffe. David Oster.

At 6pm on Saturday the James Clearance rate for $M+ was 71% on the 34 auctions we attended. WOW – 71%, a big change from last month.

Bidderman, our demand indicator of bidders per auction, was at 1.8. So on our biggest $M+ auction weekend so far this year, when you would expect buyers to thin out and Bidderman to drop, it actually went up on the trend of the last few weeks.

It may be just one day but it was strong out there this weekend. For the first time since late February our advocates reported feeling feeling genuine price pressures whilst bidding.

Market Summary: The big question is whether this is a statistical blip or whether we are a seeing the trend return towards a balanced market. If so, why?

1. Buyers feel a little better than they did last month and confidence came back into the market as a result. Our enquiry rates are certainly up.
2. The overall quality of homes on offer was up on previous weeks and they were plentiful in number. We saw lots of 700+ James Home Rating (quality) homes go to auction this weekend.
3. Last week as buyers looked into the future they saw that the cupboard of  post Easter offerings was bare – and so they adjusted their game plan accordingly.

Whether this is a blip or a trend change will largely be determined by what discretionary sellers do in May. If they are encouraged by this weekend’s results to put their properties onto the market, then prices may stay softer than last year. If those sellers stay out and demand continues as is, then the overhang of stales will begin to be mopped up and the good buying conditions of the last months (price and choice) will dissipate.

This weekend, again, we saw the overall power of the Melbourne market and the power of demand and supply. There is an underlying strength in Melbourne homebuying (based in immigration and lack of homes), that has slackened off in recent times as buyers become more circumspect with concerns about overseas events, jobs, and who knows what exactly. As well there has been plenty of choice. BUT as soon as there is a hint of a quality stock shortage the market responds, particularly with regards to well-located quality family homes, on land and of a period flavour. And it responds strongly.

More insights

• It wasn’t just the consistent $1m to $1.5m range holding up its end in isolation, this was also the strongest single week this year for $3m+ buys.
• It was the second strongest clearance rate of the year, despite an almost Super Saturday (140 $M+ Auctions – Inner East and Bayside)
• We saw consistent bidding across the board, with over 75% of monitored auctions having at least one bidder.
• The big question going forward after our Easter market break is whether nervous sellers will re-enter the market on one week’s good showing.
• Prices are generally down on this time last year (there are exceptions), so good homes are attractive right now. And while new choice may become limited,  some existing choice (overhang) still remains.
• Top End rentals are getting considerably more rent than expected as supply in relation to demand is tightening. This observation from two agents needs more examination at a later date. We’re interested in how widespread this may be, why it is happening and what effects it may have on the buying market. (Are borderline investors perhaps re-entering the Top End?).

Wild and Wooly - the weather that is, not Rob Vickers-Willis. Toorak 3 Denham. Passed In $2,010,000. 2 bidders.

The $3m+ Market’s strongest 2011 week so far (some examples):

South Yarra 43 Marne St: Nicole Gleeson of Kay and Burton: Bought well over the $12,000,000 quote range, putting Domain Precinct land values at $8,000 per sqm for the bigger blocks.

Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett also of Kay and Burton: Over $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home with tennis court that needs some floor plan reworking.

While still in Hawthorn, Mr Nice Guy and the Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (modern home in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period home in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both prices were a little down on ambitious asks but they were nonetheless solid prices for what they were.

Kew – Was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula – i.e. new build, small block and overpriced? Well technically we are still credible, because these were in neighbouring Kew: with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million-ish, the death of this market may be a little exaggerated. It was only two sales, but they were biggies.

Malvern and Canterbury -  50 Wattle Valley, Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) sold under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000; 54 Stanhope Malvern with Rae Tomlinson also under the hammer for $3,170,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Bayside has recorded a few $3M+ sales as well, with 29 Bay Street, Brighton (Bert Stewart of Buxton) selling post auction over $3,550,000. The final result put north-facing Golden Mile land (no view) at more than $3,200 per sq metre. That is a “steady as she goes price” similar to last year’s Golden mile (no view) buys. Another $3m+ sale with a strange twist (all non bidders asked to leave auction) was at 40 Drake Brighton (Ian Jackson of Kay and Burton).

Toorak While on land sales, 1073 Malvern Road (Justin Long) passed in at $3,225,000 and a reserve was offered which was not taken up by the pass-in bidder. Two new bidders appeared and a second auction took place resulting in a sale well over the pass-in figure.

For full details each week of what is happening in the Top End $M+ market see our regular $3-Million-Plus Market Reports.

Round the Grounds – Price this year v last year and a word on Post Easter stock levels.

Malvern John Bongiorno, Marshall White: “Price is a little softer on certain homes but on high quality homes they are still rocking, granted buyers are more discerning. Stock levels are not as strong as last year. Rentals at the top end are exploding in the middle and top end market. Big news is rents have increased, possibly making investments more attractive at the higher end. There is such a shortage of homes to rent.”

Caulfield Rodney Morley, Woodards: “I think the negativity means less stock is coming on in May and Winter. Everybody wants records that are not coming at the moment. The market is definitely softer than this time last year in price. Buyers (then) were buying anything. Right now, buyers do not feel that urgency. No question that the market is softer.”

Brighton Bert Stewart, Buxton: “I think the market is around 10% down on some top end homes. Stock levels and therefore buyer choice after Easter are not looking good.”

Camberwell Geoff Hall, Noel Jones: ”Prices are down around 10% on this time last year, with some exceptions for quality homes, and stock post Easter is just not coming on like it did last year.”

Hawthorn Richard Winneke, Jellis Craig: “Big drop in new buyer enquiry this week. Probably due to the holiday factor but it was a noticeable drop. Rentals are definitely getting more than I expected price-wise and this may stimulate investment into Top End homes. East of Burke Road (Camberwell and Canterbury) has not performed as well as Hawthorn and Kew this year to date. I think prices are still relatively solid around that early million dollar mark but softer higher up.”

Carlton Tom Roberts, Nelson Alexander:  ”Stock levels Post Easter are tightening with only the sellers that need to sell going to market. Good homes still going exceptionally well but those results are in amongst the not so good going not quiet so well as last year. Prices are down a smidgen.”

Playing for Keeps here. Big 150 plus crowd. 29 McKinnon, Carlton. 3 bidders. Bought for a whopping $1,417,000 (462 sqm). We thought it was justified, but it was still big. Nick Renna, Peter Sinclair and Melissa Ryan of Hocking Stuart

Biggest Sale we covered: 21 Macartney Ave, Kew; Walter Dodich (Marshall White): After auction, undisclosed around $4,000,000
“Being in the coveted Sackville area this auction attracted a large crowd of about 100. The crowd were well spread out and even blocked the road in front of the property as they heard auctioneer Walter Dodich open proceedings. The auction began in Mr Dodich’s own words with a ‘traditional’ vendor bid at $3,700,000 as no one was willing to start things off. However this was the trigger that allowed two bidders to start the battle off for the property. Initially there were meant to be three bidders however the third bidder couldn’t get his bid in as he always cut off by the other two. When he finally got one in there was applause from the crowd and a cry of joy from the bidder. As the auction went on, the climax built and the crowd held their breath as the price rose and rose yet there was still no indication from Mr Dodich about whether the property was on the market or not. At $4,000,000 Mr Dodich passed the property in and after lengthy negotiations the property was bought after for an undisclosed amount.” (Josh Bong)

Biggest Pass in we covered: 72 Kerferd St, Malvern East, John Bongiorno (Marshall White); Passed in, $2,800,000, no bidders
“With 300 people having viewed this property and 100 or so crowded into the garden of this Gascoigne Estate home, auctioneer John Bongiorno was confident of a sale. But it was not to be with a vendor bid of $2,800,000 the only one of the day and the property passed in. However, with one interested party heading inside, it may not be long before this stunning property is sporting a ‘sold’ sign.” (Debbie McTaggart)

The Big Issue: Architect Adam and Klarity Kris discuss whether they believe buying conditions will be as good post-Easter as they are now.

Auction Video: This week Jen Milligan, our Market News Co-ordinator, fills in for our advocates who were busy with other auction commitments. 15 Epping St, Malvern East, a BenMac auction with Iain Carmichael. Click on the live action auction video.

Buyer Masterclass: Conditions are great for homebuyers – so where are they?

We Only Buy Homes

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