CAMBERWELL, 8 Stanhope Grove: James Tostevin (Marshall White) is a picture of concentration. Bought under the hammer, $2,400,000, two bidders

We mainly focus on the better quality homes, however 10 from 10 was still a surprise. This stat varies dramatically from our overall monitored auctions stat of just over 50% – similar to last week.

It was a Super Saturday in Boroondara with over 50 auctions at $M+ and over 30 sales reported as being above a million dollars.

So what was bought and what wasn’t

Bought

• Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett Kay and Burton: North of $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home that needs some reworking and a tennis court – Expressions of Interest Campaign.
• While still in Hawthorn Mr Nice Guy and Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (Modern in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both a little down on ambitious asks but nonetheless solid prices for what they were. Both Private Sales.
• But wait there’s more and was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula- new build, small block, overpriced. Well on a technicality were are still credible as it’s neighbouring Kew; but with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million’ish, the death of this market maybe a little exaggerated. However please it is only two sales, but they were biggies. Both at auction.
• The news doesn’t stop for sellers there with period home successes at 50 Wattle Valley Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) selling under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Passed-In – the difficult ones

• 16 Glenroy Hawthorn Passed in $3,000,000 on a vendor bid. – Difficult for see how to reno easily?
• 16 Burton Hawthorn Passed in $3,150,000 on a vendor bid. – Price versus land content?
• 256 Riversdale Hawthorn $2,020,000 – Difficult position?
• 44 Harcourt Hawthorn East $2,000,000 – Family home but no real backyard?
• Plenty of homes passed in just below a million in that $900,000 range – $million is still a real mental barrier for many buyers?

Agent Q & A : How does current pricing compare with the same time last year?

Tim Heavyside, Fletchers, Canterbury: “Property prices were slightly higher back then than now.”

CANTERBURY, 35 Wattle Valley Rd: A big crowd of 80 turned out to watch James Tostevin in action. Unfortunately, there wasn't much action to watch. Passed in $2,300,000, no bidders

Key Points:

• Is the dream run over for agents in Boroondara or is Post Easter going to be a very different story? Just like the market itself, there has been tremendous change within the business of real estate in Boroondara in recent times. Both the May and Winter markets could be very different to past years – it will all be determined by stock levels – the size of the overhang, how it’s mopped up and whether or not we will see nervous vendors putting their quality stock up for sale post Easter. Not writing the old girl for any length of time, not by any stretch, she has got up off the floor quickly before. For buyers, now may simply be a window and not a trend.
• Canterbury 13 Rubens: Jeremy Desmier Fletchers and Tom Ryan, Sold before Auction: Over $3,000,000.
• Even if its got something to offer, if the market says it’s a bit different and not perfect then it’s not selling at auction;  evidenced by 35 Wattle Valley Road Canterbury and 6 Wharton St Surrey Hills.
• Price check 2 Kaarumba Balwyn (Michael Nolan of Noel Jones) – just out past Narrak Road, a big but difficult, irregular block of 1200+ sqm sold for just over $1100 psqm.

Chloe Quinn, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn: “We are experiencing mixed auction results at the moment. Some auctions are performing as expected and we are seeing competitive bidding, others are passing in and either selling on the day or in the week post auction. Houses that are appealing and are in sort after locations are always going to experience competitive bidding (regardless of the market conditions). There are some good opportunities for buyers looking either side of one million dollars, as there are a number of properties for sale. Due to this, price guides and results are more predictable.”

Glen Coutinho, Hocking Stuart, Camberwell/Hawthorn: “I do not believe it’s a buyers market, I think that the market is evenly balanced. The best advice I can advise is that real estate is a long term investment and there is no doubt that property prices will be higher in the next 18 months, then they are now. So they are better off too buy their property and get settled; as there are no signs of a falling market coming.”

New Subscriber System: Over the next few weeks we will  introduce a free subscription model giving you greater access to our council-specific wraps, which include auction results, news, opinion and analysis on a micro level. This subscription model helps us improve your browsing experience as clients or general subscribers by delivering more relevant content to you on the site and in your email newsletter. Sign up by clicking Subscribe at the top right of the website. If you experience any problems as we are testing and implementing this new improved system please let us know at enquiry@james.net.au

STOP PRESS: March, while not huge in numbers, did finish the month with 3 solid mid week $3M+ buys – including 4 bidders at $7 million or better at 2 of them.

• Toorak Ottawa Avenue : Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar – quiet sale off market in the mid $8m’s
• Toorak 19 Huntingfield: Justin Long and Peter Bennison of Marshall White – mid week auction, 3 bidders and on the market at $6,700,000. Bought under the hammer for $7,060,000. James Connell said afterwards that this market was not all bad news and Huntingfield supported that.
• Canterbury 13 Rubens: Jeremy Desmier Fletchers and Tom Ryan, Sold before Auction: Over $3,200,000
• South Yarra – The Caroline Coachhouse – they were looking for $3m ish for a very long time (eg in the years) and now Mike Gibson – Kay and Burton has got it away.

South Yarra 17 Acland St: Gerald Delany. Fairly typical of the market for the slightly overpriced or slightly less than perfect. Passed-In with no bidders and now for sale at POA.

New Subscriber System: Over the next few weeks we will  introduce a free subscription model giving you greater access to our council-specific wraps, which include auction results, news, opinion and analysis on a micro level. This subscription model helps us improve your browsing experience as clients or general subscribers by delivering more relevant content to you on the site and in your email newsletter. Sign up by clicking Subscribe at the top right of the website. If you experience any problems as we are testing and implementing this new improved system please let us know at enquiry@james.net.au

Week Ending 26th March: The Market at this level was fairly quiet this week with the good sales, price wise but not too many of them.

• Templestowe, 9 Edwin: On the market since October of last year with Jeremy Tyrell of Fletchers. Has been bought for in excess of $4,700,000
• Richmond 37 Docker: Ken Griffith of Jellis Craig. Bought at auction, $3,300,000 – $3,500,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson Grove: Michael Lui of Marshall White. Bought after auction $3,600,000 – $3,800,000
• Toorak 17 Lansell: Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys. On the market since December of last year and selling for circle mid $3′s

Armadale 1026 Malvern Road: The recipe was there for a good auction - quality period home on big land - however the market is a different beast from some time ago at this price level and a quiet auction took place with Jack Bongiorno in charge. Opened on a bid of $3,400,000, passed in to that bidder and was bought after for an undisclosed amount. Crowd of 40.

Week Ending 19th March:

Off Markets, Forthcoming Auctions and Expressions of Interest are increasing as market stock levels begin to rise dramatically. However some big sales including a $13,000,000+ in Toorak and a $7,000,000+ in Brighton along with a few other $3m+ buys indicate the market hadn’t completely gone to sleep .

James Tostevin: “Overall a good day. The $3m+ market is hard to read and we are not getting huge numbers of bidders at many auctions;  so there is a case to say the results may be looking healthier than the market actually is – but from a purely stats points of view (clearance rates) today was a good day.”

In Boroondara:

• Balwyn 34-36 Linckens:  (Toby Parker of Hocking Stuart) – a $3m+ auction slotted in for auction this weekend has been bought before.The quote was over $3.7m and if, as we believe, it was bought for close to $4 million then it was a strong sale.
• Kew 41 Victor Avenue: (James Tostevin) – Two strong bidders and sold under the hammer for $4,100,000.
• Canterbury 17a Alexander Avenue: Passed In $3,200,000. No bidders
• Kew 22 Stawell: Passed In $3,000,000. 0 bidders.

In Stonnington:

• 19 Kingston St, Malvern East, Iain Carmichael (BenMac); After auction in excess of $4,600,000
  “Auctioneer Iain Carmichael was in charge of proceedings for this picture perfect home.  A large crowd of over 80 packed in to the beautiful mature gardens surrounding the house, as the sun shone to show this property at its very best.  The initial vendor bid of $4,250,000 didn’t seem over the top given the location of this park-adjacent idyll.  Despite the auctioneer being confident of a sale, no further bids were forthcoming and, after referral to the vendor, the property was passed in. (Debbie McTaggart)
  Footnote: Nobody bid at auction at $4,250,000 but 2 bidders emerged post auction and fought it out afterwards to a price well in excess of the reserve and well in excess of $4,600,000. Go figure.
• Armadale 1026 Malvern: James Redfern of Marshall White: Passed in $3,400,000 and bought afterwards. 1 bidder.

In Bayside:

• Brighton 29 St Ninians: As always, auctioneer Jonathan Dixon opened proceedings right on time and the preliminaries were soon completed. This property has a supreme and uninterrupted view of the Bay from the City to Royal Brighton Yacht Club and the potential for future development was clearly explained by Mr Dixon. Nevertheless, no bids were forthcoming and the property was passed in on a vendor bid of $7,300,000.
• Brighton 18A Martin: Passed In for $3,300,000. 1 bidder.

Labour Day Weekend March 12th: As expected minimal activity over the weekend; well no auctions that is – a heap of new stock was listed to go onto an already over supplied market.

Brighton 2 Shandford: Bought Post Auction for over $7 million or in around $10,000 per sq metre - meaning Melbourne absolute waterfront is amongst the most sought after land in the world. Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin from Buxton.

On a buying note, the Golden Mile in Brighton is still alive and well with Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin from Buxton getting 2 Shandford away post auction for an undisclosed amount over $7 million and in fact over Shandford’s other $7 million sale of a few weeks ago. This home had some positives and will possibly be retained but with two blocks totaling around 1400 sqm going for nearly $15,000,000 this shows that Melbourne absolute waterfront has some of the most sought after beach front in the world on a dollar per sq metre basis.

Another quieter one in the Golden Mile just before the long weekend – 11 Kent Avenue (Stan Fisher of Biggin and Scott) – was reported as bought again for an undisclosed amount having been sold only last year for a tick over $4 million. The rest of Melbourne may be a little quiet, but Golden Mile Brighton is relatively hot for land sales (compared to previous years).

In the heart of the Bagel Belt at 85 Lumeah Road Caulfield North (Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton) a large block of land (around 1800 sqm) with a tired home on it was sold for an undisclosed amount for over $4 million, under the hammer, having been on the market at $3.5 million – 3 bidders. That makes it number two along with Langdon Road at or over $4m in the last fortnight in Caulfield.

In Stonnington 20 St Georges has been bought for an undisclosed amount. The property had been quietly on the market for some time before a more public campaign this year. The asking price estimate was $12,000,000 to $15,000,000 and it is believed to have been sold in the middle. Andrew Tolson of TBM was the selling agent. We went through it a few times on behalf of different clients and found it to be a home of some class with good light and a nice flowing floor plan – slight negatives were a less than full-sized tennis court and some overlooking at the rear (although it was not significant and, if you lost the tennis court, planting could remedy that). Being St Georges it commanded a premium – although to date its “little brother” down the road at No 10 hasn’t sold at an already passed Expressions of Interest deadline. However, considering the home’s characteristics, it would be hats off to the agents if it got near their $10,000,000 ask, even if it is St Georges.

Also went through 14 Bruce St Toorak late last month –  it has been bought for a reasonable margin over $3,000,000. Again showing the power of good architects and in particular Wayne Gillespie. Difficult block and orientation and a market place that has competition for supply, so this was a good result for an Expressions of Interest campaign and the man that sells a number of these very quietly – Marcus Chiminello.

‘Hoping for $3m in a different market but didn’t quite get there’ stories: In Port Phillip, 7 Pilley Street in St Kilda East, which was originally marketed at an ambitious around $3 million, has been bought for around $2.6 million - Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar. All things considered, this was still a very good result for the area. In Malvern, 5 Gaynor Court with Rob Vickers-Willis got to $2.73 million and a three storey terrace home in Carlton with Anthony Gattuso of AG Property got around the same amount. All solid results.

Overall still a lot of properties on the market at this $3m+ price level that have completed normal auction and Expression of Interest with no result.

Malvern 66 Claremont: Iain Carmichael: Bought for $3,700,000: 3 bidders: At this point, someone yelled "is it on the market?" and the BenMac team hastily retreated inside to speak to the vendor. Upon his return, Mr Carmichael said yes indeed it was on the market and it was here that the bidding really took off. After the price hit $3,625,000, one of the bidders went bang - $3,700,000 - and knocked everyone else out of the competition. A great finish to a great auction

Week Ending 5th March: All the bigger deals were basically in one spot, Stonnington.

Actual Boughts in Stonnington:

• Malvern 19 Hamilton – Justin Long – At Auction – $4,357,000
• Malvern 66 Claremont – Iain Carmichael – At Auction – $3,700,000
• Toorak 9 Ross – Justin Long – Auction – over $3,600,000
• Toorak – 3 Teringa – Andrew(s) McCann and Macmillan of Benmac – post last weeks auction – over $3,500,000 – nearly $5000 per sqm for rear south facing land
• Toorak – 611 Toorak Road – Expressions of Interest – Greg Herman of RT Edgar – $3,500,000
• Toorak – 231 Kooyong Road – James Redfern – Post last Saturday’s auction – over $3,500,000
• Malvern East – 127 Finch St – Rob Vickers-Willis – $3,300,000

Bayside: A Key land Indicator

• 11 William St Brighton with Rod Richardson of Hocking Stuart – $3,100,000 for 1383 sqm of land = $2,241 per sqm for land in central Brighton. Solid and expected result. 5 bidders.

Boroondara: Action at the Top End almost non-existent

• Stock Surge – Large amounts of $M+ stock are hitting the market for pre-Easter campaigns
• 61 Bellett Camberwell has been on the market since July of last year and was sold by Sam Wilkinson of Kay and Burton mid week for $3,100,000.
• The Balwyn formula of big block, new home, big price tag seems to have come to a grinding halt – very few high end new sales. Opportunity?
• Off markets are on the increase.

Port Phillip: The overpriced are as cold as ice in Port Phillip right now. No bites, no action – as evidenced by the pass-ins of yesterday and the first two weeks of this market.

• I went to a Beaconsfield auction yesterday – the offering slightly less than perfect but still a great spot – however the start was a $4million vendor bid and then a $4,250,000 vendor bid. I may have to eat humble pie when the result comes in but for me the four sales on this strip over $4m last year seemed different offerings.
• 49 Howe Crescent, which was advertised in an Expressions of Interest campaign for later this month, sold last week well over its $5m+ guideline for more than $6m (we believe). A very rare large land size at 915 sqm with a double fronted Victorian on it shows the pulling power of large land so close to the CBD in the St Vincent Garden precinct (or just off it). Michael Coen of Hocking Stuart was the dealmaker on this one. Good job.

What are you talking about? - course the market's OK! St Kilda East 239 Alma Road: Phillip Kingston: Bought for $1,500,000: 3 bidders (Photo Kate Agnoleto)

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate on the 31 auctions we covered was 58%.

Bidderman, our demand indicator of average bidders per auction, had a small rise to 1.6 bidders per auction, in part due to four volcanoes (strong auctions) including one 7 bidder auction in 28 Barrington St Kew.

These figures indicate that the market has now cooled – not frozen or falling apart, just cooled. That means we have moved into a buyers’ market, perhaps until Easter and possibly until Spring.

Well-priced homes are still selling. And there have been some surprising above-expectation results, such as 28 Barrington Kew (Glen Coutinho) which sold for $2,230,000 and, last week,Victor Road Kew (James Tostevin) at $4.1 million. But if the market doesn’t agree with initial pricing then it’s a slow, torturous journey to get a result. See our special Pass-Ins and Stales Report below.

This week we also look at the returns of serve on The Economist’s article as the ‘Experts’ hit back against the “Overpriced” headlines of last week.

This Weekend’s Market Summary:

This weekend in most places, except Boroondara, there was limited $M+ stock on offer at auction. The individual council clearance rates we report on in our market wraps could be distorted due to a) lack of auctions and b) lack of overall quality in those auctions. But this is not to imply a lack of stock in general – there are high levels of $M+ stock available across the board and Boroondara in particular is almost awash with homes on the market.

Looking specifically for a moment at Boroondara (Kew, Hawthorn, Canterbury and Camberwell), while this market may be a little out of kilter with the rest of Melbourne in terms of auction numbers, in the past few years it is a market that has shown the strongest resilience against negativity. It was affected by the GST for the shortest time, and has had the biggest price increases since. This weekend too it seemed to have a little oomph and we expect the clearance rate for Boorondara $M+ homes to be in the high 50s to low 60s.

But it does have a fight on its hands right now, with the main demand drivers (overseas buyers) reducing greatly in activity and supply to the market continuing to arrive week after week. Which means that buyers who can look beyond the headlines will find opportunities, and with the right strategies you should be in a position to push back a little against the seemingly never ending sellers’ market.

The next few weeks will be better in terms of auction quality in the top of the Top End in Boroondara. As long as those properties sell and the clearance rates stay stable, and if new stock reduces post Easter, we could move back to a balanced market. But if stock continues to come on in big numbers then the market will almost certainly remain cool with a significant change in demand sentiment.

Most of the $M+ homes on offer that sold this weekend were in the early $1 million range.

Bayside, Port Phillip, Stonnington have been quiet, with only a handful of sales in the post auction wash up from March 19th  and likewise at auction this weekend. In Port Phillip this is understandable as the Grand Prix completely extinguishes the market for almost a month. Why auction numbers are down in Brighton, Toorak and Malvern is not completely obvious – well not to us anyway. April 9th is shaping up as a Super Saturday of some sorts with almost 120 auctions in Boroondara and Stonnington combined. $M+ auctions in Bayside are still light on at the top of the Top End with mainly $1 million to $2 million homes on offer for the next few weeks leading into Easter. Most of the top of the Top End in Bayside is not going to auction.

Agent thoughts: Has the market changed since before the Labour Day weekend?
Chris Barrett, Marshall White, Hawthorn:“There have been a lot of people in the media talking about a negative change in the market since Labour day weekend, I however have found this to be unsubstantiated. As long as vendors prices are realistic and the property is presented well vendors can expect solid interest in their home.”
John Clarkson, Hocking Stuart, Brighton:“Good properties near local attractions and amenities, schools, shopping and the beach are still attracting a high level of enquiry.  Since Labour Day weekend the message is clear: If you are realistically priced you have a very good chance of selling . If you are above market perception, enquiry is reduced to a trickle.”  * For John’s full comments please see the Bayside weekly wrap.

James Special Report: Pass-Ins and Stales – The Autumn overhang build up.

We went back and re-examined all the auctions we reported on this year in 2011 and we revisited all the pass-ins, using still advertised on the net to determine their still for sale status. Please note that the table below is only connected with PASS-INS, not the homes we reported as bought before, at or just after auction on the day.

The table does make for interesting reading on the fate of a home that the market does not consider to be priced correctly at auction.

The table below shows Adjusted Clearance Rates comparing”On the Day” Clearance Rates with “On the Day plus Bought since”. Back in February 19 and 26 Pass-ins were taken up fairly quickly. However the most interesting stat is the lack of take up on Passed-in homes over the last two weeks of auctions: only 3 in 26.

• 1 of the 13 unsolds from the March 5th pass-ins and
• 2 of the 13 from the March 19th pass-ins.

This we feel confirms the view that the $M+ market started the year as balanced, but around Labour Day took a cooling direction.

What's happening Nick? Bentleigh 7 Eddys: Bought $1,312,500: 3 bidders. (Photo: David James)

James Big Issue: Agents claiming there are 100% Clearance rates in this market are just as misleading as saying the market is in freefall – both are far from the truth. Klarity Kris and Architect Adam cover it in the James Big Issue Video. Here is a summary of what they say.

• Still some surprising results. Two in particular, both in Boroondara, that stand out are Victor Avenue in Kew with James Tostevin – which sold for a hard to believe $4,100,000. Nic Franzman, Mark Dayman and Nic Ptak also from Marshall White’s result at 22 Stawell St Kew for $3,300,000. That was also a most surprising result
• We are hearing from agents 100% clearance rates – mainly due to agents feeling they need to respond to the Negativity of The Economist’s article and the Earthquakes, which for the moment have contributed to dampening demand.
• An interesting stat is that only 3 of the 26 homes we reported as passed in after auction in the last two weeks of auctions have since sold.
• We could say that 3 from 26 is reflective of the market strength – a far cry from the 100% Clearance Rate stats, BUT 3 from 26 while true, is also misrepresenting the market just as is reporting 100% clearance rates
• The market was in a balanced state pre Labour Day and as expected it is now going into a cooling phase until Easter due to increased stock levels and drop in demand intensity.

The message for buyers

• You have choice in the $3m+ range but there are still a few surprisingly strong results
• You will still have to compete relatively strongly if the home is good and well priced in that $1m to $1.5m range
• And the middle range say circle $2m to $2.5m is a bit of moving beast – the trend is not crystal clear to us at this stage.

Click on the JAMES BIG ISSUE video with Architect Adam and Klarity Kris in the middle of the home page

Media Monitor: Are Melbourne homes overpriced?

The case for being overpriced arose from The Economist’s article – which we reported on last week.  And now this week the case against those seemingly extreme overpriced by 56% headlines.

Rob Brooker head of economics from the NAB

1. Current events such as floods and Japan are affecting Melbourne short term, but long term our fundamentals are very strong.
2. Not suggesting prices are going to increase rapidly as affordability is hard pressed right now but we do have a shortage of housing stock.

His comments can be found in the excellent Kay and Burton report – sure it’s a selling tool but we listen to the expert commentary each time it’s on It’s well produced, they have credible experts and it’s relevant to our high end Melbourne market. Check it out, at least the expert comment stuff. The home fluff afterwards is up to you: http://www.kayburton.com.au/kayburtonreport

Paul Bloxham – HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, and a former RBA economist savages The Economist’s article stating “it’s too naive to be useful”. His main points in the Business Spectator are

1. We have an undersupply in inner city areas (totally agree with this comment)
2. Our stock is very high quality and has improved considerably over the last 20 years contributing to the increases in price paid (totally agree with this comment)
3. Very strong and improving economy (beyond our level of expertise but sounds good)

For the full article http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Australian-property-prices-housing-bubble-pd20110317-F24WP?OpenDocument&src=sph This was supplied by Al Craig of Jellis Craig – thank you.

‘Round the Grounds Headlines:
Boroondara- Some solid results but the trend is down under weight of stock numbers.
Bayside- Little movement on a lot of the recent Auction pass-ins
Stonnington- Small numbers of $M+ auctions today – although plenty of Top End non auction stock available
Port Phillip-With the Grand Prix – only 4 key $M+ auctions – 3 sold
More detailed analysis on our Weekly Local Council Market Wraps

Biggest Sales we can report:

• Templestowe, 9 Edwin: On the market since October of last year with Jeremy Tyrell of Fletchers. Has been bought for in excess of $4,700,000
• Richmond 37 Docker: Ken Griffith of Jellis Craig. Bought at auction, $3,300,000 – $3,500,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson Grove: Michael Lui of Marshall White. Bought after auction $3,600,000 – $3,800,000
• Toorak 17 Lansell, Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys. On the market since December of last year

Biggest Sale we covered after auction: 44 Mary St Hawthorn, Antony Woodley of Marshall White. Above $2,700,000 (Undisclosed): Bought after auction, 1 bidder

Biggest Sale we covered under the hammer: 28 Barrington Ave, Kew, Glen Coutinho (Hocking Stuart), Under the hammer $2,230,000, 7 bidders (WOW)
“This Kew property did attract a crowd of 80 people, with quite a few potential buyers in the mix. The auctioneer, Glen Countinho, had to field bids from a whopping seven different bidders! Despite the light rain, the flow of the auction was quite amazing and reached the final amount of $2,230,000 before the hammer came down.” (Sonia Matmati)

Biggest Pass In: 68 Studley Park Rd, Kew, Passed in, $3,700,000
“A very pretty setting for an auction. Standing on an elevated embankment, auctioneer Richard Earle literally oversaw proceedings. He began by highlighting the virtues of this property with energy and detail. No bids came forth, however, so it was passed in for $3,700,000.”

Auction Video: This week i’ts down to Brighton with Klarity Kris at 22 Oakwood Ave, a Hocking Stuart auction with Peter Kennett. Click on the live action.

Please Note: we always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be videoed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

Buyer Master Class: Klarity Kris discusses what’s necessary when buying a home when there are kids in the picture. Is it double storey single fronted or single storey double fronted!

Copyright: Mouldy Bread Picture from ChemistryWorldBlog.

We Only Buy Homes

BENTLEIGH, 7 Eddys Grove: Nick Renna (Hocking Stuart) searches for bidders and he didn't need to look far. Bought under the hammer $1,312,00, 3 bidders.

Key Point:

The Top End outside Inner East and Bayside is mainly in that $1.5m to $2.2m range and the action this month has been relatively thin on the ground with many agents reporting a lot of homes for sale but with little movement generally.

Agent Q & A: Has the market changed since before Labour Day weekend?
Aaron Silluzio, Barry Plant, Rosanna:“Since the Labour Day weekend there has been a few shudders in the residential market. This has obviously been driven by a serious decline in consumer confidence which has stemmed from the aftermath of the Christchurch Earthquake, directly after the Labour Day weekend the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and of course the Libyan situation which has also caused a flow on effect to oil and ultimately petrol prices. This break in consumer confidence has been a real shame as we personally felt that post Christmas the market had gathered a nice head of steam and was moving forward in the right direction. Having stated this, the stock market is starting to move in the right direction which indicates that consumers are willing to act and hopefully we can start to see a similar result in the property market in the not too distant future.
David Oster, Jellis Craig, Ivanhoe:“I believe the market has seen an increase in stock levels and I’m finding that we are back to being agents.  We are finding more post negotiations, pitting our skill level against a buyer, however we still have 100% success rate for 2011.”

Some of what we have seen in March outside our main $M+ areas is contained below

A bit of strain, but got there in the end! CAMBERWELL, 1 Mayfield Ave: Richard Earle (Jellis Craig) fields bids from 3 bidders to take the sale price to $1,425,000 in front of a crowd of 60.

At 6pm on Saturday, the James $M+ Clearance Rate on the 32 auctions we covered was 59%. With two weeks in a row at this level, this is a market coming out of ‘balanced’ and leaning towards “cool’. Bidderman, our demand indicator of average bidders per auction, has continued to decline to 1.3 bidders per auction, also indicating a market that’s dropped below ‘balanced’. If bidder numbers stay at this level, or fall even further between now and Easter, prices are likely to fall or an increasing number of properties will not be sold.

Where is the Market At?
Is this new pre-Easter market going to be different from 2011’s three week season opener? We feel yes! Even though stock quality was not as strong as the last two auction weeks pre Labour Day, in our opinion, this weekend was a fairly significant down market. Crowd numbers were down, Bidderman was down, clearance rates were similar to the last couple of weeks, but stock is continuing to flood into the $m+ market. There were 90 new seller listings in the $m+ price range on Thursday for Boroondara, Stonnington, Bayside and Port Phillip. Those new listings come on top of the already significant stock numbers that came on to the market prior to the Labour Day break.

Couple this with the fact that a number of buyers are looking for the inaction (not panic) button – to find an excuse not to act. At the moment we’ve got a few – the Japan Earthquake, The Economist article (see below), the stockmarket. This is leading to inaction, or at the very least conservative action, which is dampening demand right across the board in Top End Melbourne.

What we’re seeing at the moment is a developing cloud of negative emotion. It’s not the level of negativity we saw during the GFC but more like last May 2010 when the market was spooked by a combination of rising interest rates, the collapse in the Greek economy, and a stockmarket scare. This year, we’ve got a new set of scare factors – and coming on top of a flood of stock, that is creating a bit of fragility in the buyer psyche .

Price: With supply significantly up this month and demand down (not just per auction, but overall) we now have the same recipe that we had in May last year, which resulted in a number of significant seller discounts on expectations or unsold properties.

This is not bad per se – remember, the market is a living, breathing collection of numerous buyer and seller opinions. And overall buyer and seller opinions are not as balanced now as a few weeks ago and nowhere near as strong and united as this time last year. To keep some warmth in the pre Easter market, sellers are going to have to discount their inflated expectations or there will be large numbers of unsolds and ultimately a less active market. Of course demand could change – but it’s hard to see where the ‘up’ news will come from in the short term, unless pricing meets the market, or we are hit by a wave of world optimism.

For sellers this means three choices – hold out for an above market price and hope to get lucky (a strategy that can still work occasionally); adjust to meet the market (as many sellers did both in May and late Spring of last year) or remain the holder of a nice home priced above what the market is prepared to pay.

For the ‘glass half full buyers’, this means opportunity in terms of choice and good prices – almost identical to late 2010 where the market was not weak in terms of activity, just in terms of price. Of course the ’glass half empty’ buyers will read this current situation as bad news, rather than one of many long term ups and downs representing a great opportunity to buy a better home or pay a lower price.

James MarketNews Big Issue: Click on the Big Issue Video to see Klarity Kris and Architect Adam discuss the negativity that is here in the market right now. Also in our article in this week’s The Weekly Review - Melbourne’s Million Dollar Property Magazine – we cover the ‘fallout’ on The Economist‘s article that Australian house prices are overvalued by 56%. Our take is that, even if this were true – and that is debatable – if you buy well with a view to the long term you’ll be able to ride any ups and downs in the market.

Brighton East 77 Comer: Nothing much happening: Passed In $2,200,000. 0 bids.

$3M+ Markets: See our updated March report
Off Markets, Forthcoming Auctions and Expressions of Interest are increasing as market stock levels begin to rise significantly. However some big sales including a $13,000,000+ in Toorak and a $7,000,000+ in Brighton along with a few other $3m+ buys means the market hasn’t completely gone to sleep over the Labour Day weekend.

‘Round the Grounds Headlines
Boroondara -  Stock Levels continuing to increase, however 32 properties over a million bought.
Bayside – Big drop in Clearance Rates into the low 40s, though on low quality.
Port Phillip – Very solid, with 13 from 17 being bought or 76% Clearance.
Stonnington – At 64% the fickle Stonnington is holding its own at auction – however a number of big ones are not getting sold through other methods of sale.
Rest of Melbourne – A lot of stock in the high end of each market and the enquiry on these is generally reported as low.
More Detailed Analysis in our Weekly Local Council Market Wraps

Biggest Sale: 19 Kingston St, Malvern East, Iain Carmichael (BenMac); After auction in excess of $4,600,000
“Auctioneer Iain Carmichael was in charge of proceedings for this picture perfect home.  A large crowd of over 80 packed in to the beautiful mature gardens surrounding the house, as the sun shone to show this property at its very best.  The initial vendor bid of $4,250,000 didn’t seem over the top given the location of this park-adjacent idyll.  Despite the auctioneer being confident of a sale, no further bids were forthcoming and, after referral to the vendor, the property was passed in. (Debbie McTaggart)

Footnote: No-one bid at auction at $4,250,000 but 2 bidders emerged post auction and fought it out afterwards to a price well in excess of the reserve and well in excess of $4,600,000. Go figure!

Biggest Pass In: 29 St Ninians Rd, Brighton, Jonathan Dixon (JP Dixon); Passed in $7,300,000, no bidders
“As always, auctioneer Jonathan Dixon opened proceedings right on time and the preliminaries were soon completed.  This property has a supreme and uninterrupted view of the bay from the city to Royal Brighton Yacht Club and the potential for future development was clearly explained by Mr Dixon. Nevertheless, no bids were forthcoming and the property was passed in on a vendor bid of $7,300,000.” (David James)

Auction Video: This week we head to 36 Uvadale Grove, Kew – a Jellis Craig Auction with Alastair Craig. Click on the live action.  Please Note: we always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be videoed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

Buyer Masterclass: This week we are looking at who is a buyer’s worst enemy – and no it’s not the selling agent.

Scott Patterson: We don’t normally comment on personalities but this week Scott Patterson surprisingly announced he is moving from Jellis Craig to Kay and Burton. We at Marketnews enjoy a good working relationship with Scott – basically because he and the Jameses Tostevin and Connell, along with Gerald Delany, pioneered agency directors communicating honestly to Marketnews as to how the overall market actually is – even when it’s not so good. We wish him well and we look forward to the fight Jellis Craig’s new “public face” will bring to Marshall White in Boroondara – “bring back the biffo JC” we say. Apologies for this indulgence.

We Only Buy Homes

CAMBERWELL, 8 Kingsley St: Scott Patterson (Jellis Craig) was all smiles. Bought under the hammer, $2,375,000, 3 bidders

Key Points:

• Clearance Rates are definitely not as good as we are used to in Boroondara but they are still healthy in the mid 60′s and nearly 40 homes over a million were bought this week
• Stock Surge – Large amounts of $M+ stock are hitting the market for pre Easter campaigns
• 61 Bellett Camberwell has been on the market since July of last year and was sold by Sam Wilkinson of Kay and Burton mid week for $3,100,000.
• The Balwyn formula of big block, new home, big price tag seems to have come to a grinding halt – very few high end new sales. Opportunity?
• Off markets are on the increase.

Agent Q & A

How are stock levels and what will they be like leading up to Easter?

Glen Coutinho, Hocking Stuart, Kew: “There will be a surge in stock levels with a lot of homes being booked for auction just prior to Easter which is traditionally the end of a selling season and a new group starting after the break for winter.”

Duane Wolowiec, Marshall White, Hawthorn: “With limited weekends in April due to school holidays and Easter, there are a number of vendors working overtime to have their properties ready for sale with the view to auction either on the 2^nd or 9^th of April. Some vendors may feel a little rushed to meet the deadline and may opt for a longer lead up time and expose their property as a forthcoming auction.”

More big crowds this week, such as this one at 27 Auburn Pde, Hawthorn East, which stopped traffic! Under the hammer, $1,360,000, Peter Batrouney (Jellis Craig), 4 bidders

At 6pm on Saturday the James $M+ Clearance Rate on the 32 auctions we covered dipped to 59%. For the second week in a row there were around 150 new $M+ listings in our main coverage area of Bayside and the Inner East. Buyers have firmly said to sellers – “if it ain’t priced right we ain’t bidding, because we can see plenty of other homes coming on”. This attitude was particularly evidenced by the ‘duck’ rate (auctions with no bids and no sale afterwards) which was almost 1 in 3 this weekend  – well up on last weekend.

However there were exceptions – such as in Stonnington at the top of the Top End where there was almost no stopping the market and it made its strongest statement of the year so far.

Where is the Market At?

Last week there were indications the early $million+ market could be warming up a bit. But a second strong week of listings has taken some heat out of the market.

The strongest “take notice of me” stat was this weekend’s Bidderman dropping back to 1.5 from a more healthy 2 last week. What that tells us is that buyers are seeing stock choices going forward and the urgency has dimmed on some homes.  If Bidderman continues like this to Easter, prices are unlikely to rise.

This weekend we did see price pressure on quality homes, with quite strong bidding at a number of auctions (including several $3m+ auctions) and five ‘volcanoes’ of 4+ bidders per auction.

What we’re saying is that this first market period, up to Labour Day, has started healthy and balanced. But the second market (up to Easter) is no longer a shoo-in positive for would be sellers.

For buyers, this two week stock surge presents an opportunity for good prices on some good homes that the market may miss – at least until Easter. But things can change quickly – while May last year saw oodles of stock coming onto the market, that may not happen again this year. Given we’ve got such a late Easter in 2011, we may already be seeing the stock surge we saw in May last year, which could mean we don’t get strong stock levels this May.

Crowd Numbers: Again we had big crowds at many auctions, indicating a strong level of interest in results. This weekend we reported one in three auctions with 80 or more people in attendance. All others had good numbers watching.

Our $M+ Supply Indicators:

New Stock: This has been the second huge week in a row for listings with around 150 $M+ homes newly listed for sale in the Inner East and Bayside areas that we cover. There were around 200 $M+ listings across Greater Melbourne.

Actual Numbers Sold: There are solid numbers of $M+ homes changing hands, which is in part why we are not yet buying into any  cries of  a “weak market”.
Agent Market Comments:
Gerald Delaney (Kay & Burton): “I can’t see anything wrong with the market at the moment. We have seen good interest on good properties. I definitely think the market is a healthy one.”
Justin Long (Marshall White): “I feel the market has a bit of upward pressure at the moment. The well priced properties are going beyond expectations and the overpriced or not so good can be very hard work.”

James Marketnews Big Issue:
A few Expressions of Interest and Forthcoming auctions are coming back – a possible sign the pre-Easter auction market is viewed as oversupplied. Watch the discussion on Market News TV.

‘Round the Grounds Snapshots
Boroondara -  Stock Surge in Boroondara – Clearance Rates are definitely not as good as we are used to, but nearly 40 homes at $M+ were bought this week
Bayside – Bayside still shining the brightest – more stock coming on pre Easter will re-test its underlying 2011 strength
Port Phillip – So-so weekend, but stock wasn’t that exciting. Wow on Howe – Big $6m+ sale.
Stonnington – Where the big action was this weekend.
Rest of Melbourne – Just not a lot of $m+ auction action happening so we held over this week’s report
More Detailed Analysis in our Weekly Local Council Market Wraps

$3M+ Markets:
New Homes: Definitely weaker than last year particularly in the Balwyn and North Balwyn heartland.
Period Homes: Solid interest continues
More News and Specific Results can be found in $3-Million-Plus Market articles on the home page

MALVERN, 66 Claremont Ave: Iain Carmichael (BenMac) led a cracker auction - on the market at $3,300,000 and selling under the hammer $3,700,000, 3 bidders

Biggest Sale: 19 Hamilton Rd, Malvern, Justin Long (Marshall White): Under the hammer $4,357,000
The auction opened on a bid of $3,820,000, was on the market at $4,250,000 and bought under the hammer for $4,357,000. There were two bidders and a crowd of around 150. A solid result for this 1930s reproduction home on 668sqm of land.

Biggest Pass-In: 279 Beaconsfield Parade, Middle Park, Gerald Betts (RT Edgar): passed in $4,250,000
“Auctioneer Gerald Betts opened with a vendor bid of $4,000,000 and closed with a vendor bid of $4,250,000 in front of 40 seemingly uninterested observers.” (Mal James)

Bidderbuzz Auction: 11 William St, Brighton, Rod Richardson (Hocking Stuart): Under the hammer $3,100,000, 5 bidders
“The epic 45 minute auction of 11 William Street had a mix of elements to entertain those spectators watching on – intensity, drama and tension with a few awkward silences thrown in.  In the end it was a battle of the property developers for this generous block of land, in the heart of bayside Brighton.  Auctioneer Rod Richardson showed composure in the face of heckling and the patience of a saint during this long auction, working tirelessly to achieve a solid result for the vendor from the opening bid of $2,710,000 to the winning end at $3,100,000.  All in all, it was an entertaining auction to witness!” (Nikki Hills)

Auction Video: This week Architect Adam heads to Hawthorn to witness James Tostevin and the Marshall White team auction 66 Manningtree Road. Click on the live action.

Please Note: we always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be videoed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

Buyer Masterclass: A change of pace with Architect Adam telling us why we love Victorian homes – with plenty of facts and figures.

No Marketnews next week with Labour Day Long Weekend.

We Only Buy Homes

KEW, 4 Madden Grove: Peter Batrouney and his Jellis Craig team head outside to face the music after the half time break. Bought Afterwards for an undisclosed amount,1 bidder.

Key Points

• Big Numbers at almost all auctions – a crowd of 300 reported at 15 Stephens St Balwyn North
• Agents are concerned about the market – definitely not upbeat as a whole
• Lots of new stock on the market this week – Pre Easter has the potential to be a whole new market to this early season one
• The Balwyn/Nth Balwyn formula – new home on small block for over $3m – may be in trouble with two more homes, Hosken and Stephen, failing to sell. Creswick from last week is still available. Is it lack of buyers or the prices have just gone past market reality? We feel it’s the latter.

The first of the $3m sales for Boroondara are starting to happen:

• Hawthorn 46 Illawarra – Mark Dayman – Bought Before – $4,250,000
• Hawthorn 45 Mason – Scott Patterson – 4 bidders – Under  the Hammer over $3,100,000
• Kew 4 Madden – Peter Batrouney – Bought After – 1 bidder – $3,050,000
• Plus on Tuesday there was a sold sticker at 31 Canterbury Camberwell – James Tostevin for last Saturdays passed in auction – over $4,000,000

BALWYN NORTH, 15 Stephens St: Big, big crowd of around 300 people enjoyed the sunshine and watched Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White) in action. Passed in $3,650,000, 2 bidders

At 6.00pm Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for the 31 Million Dollar Plus Auctions we covered was 74%.  The signs are there that the market has started with a hint of warmth about it. Bidderman was at 2, the $M+ Clearance Rate was 74% and this weekend’s Hammer rate was almost one in two. That’s a market moving past warm and into “hotting up” from a stats point of view. But the stock quality overall was high and you would expect to see an elevated clearance rate this weekend. However a lot of new stock has come on this week and the market may be in for a sustained period of potential Super Saturdays in March and April. This will really test whether the warmth we saw this weekend was an underlying hotting up or some temporary New Year afterglow. Overall our read on the current early opening $M+ market: Nicely Balanced.

New Stock:
With 202 new million dollar plus homes listed this week, March and April (the pre-Easter market) is looking like it will have a few potential Super Saturdays. And as we know, large numbers cool anything but the hottest of hot markets. So overall we are still calling the early 2011 market as we did last week: healthy, nicely balanced and starting as well as you could reasonably expect.

Bidderman:
Indicating the average bidders per auction, was at 2. Although that is up on last week statistically, to us it basically says steady as she goes. Last week had lower quality homes on offer (than average across the board), while this week was above average. Bidderman at 2 says “healthy market”. Please note though that if this were to be maintained in the pre-Easter market there would be upwards pressure on price. But with increasing stock levels coming on, significant upwards price pressure in this pre-Easter time seems less than likely. Did we say this early market seems balanced?

Crowds:
All agents have reported significant increases in human traffic through their OFIs (Open for Inspections) and on Saturday we reported six auctions with over 100 people in attendance. All auctions had good numbers watching.

Hammer Rate:
Almost one in two sold under the hammer – that is strong. Well done to vendors and buyers alike – this is what auctions are all about: selling and buying.

Ducks on the Pond:
Very few no-bidder auctions this weekend and they were mainly in that $3m+ segment.

Round the Grounds – $Million+ Snapshot from our Market Reports

Bayside – Overall Clearance Rate solid for Brighton – 77%

Stonnington – Nearly everything sold in Malvern and Malvern East, but what happened in South Yarra?

Boroondara – Big crowds but there is an underlying agent nervousness in Boroondara

Port Phillip – Lacklustre on what we saw – but still at 60% Clearance Rate

Rest of Melbourne – The fringe $1 million plus market is small but active

$3m+ properties:
If last week was the season opener for the $1m+ auction market, then this week was the beginning of the $3m+ auction market and the main focus for this weekend’s report. We don’t have all this weekend’s numbers in yet, so it’s hard to call, but it seems that this upper market cleared at 44% of the properties under the hammer. We at James accept a slightly lower auction clearance rate on the day in this segment as indicating balanced, warm or even hot markets, because the air is generally thinner at this level due to the lower number of bidders available at this price point, and the pre and post auction argy-bargy is generally greater. Today there were quite a few $3m+ homes on offer. We think this market segment is underwhelming at present – however with the right price, the right property, and the right position, it is still being well received and taken up.

A few of the biggies that were bought

• Armadale 23 Wattletree Road – Justin Long – 3 bidders – $3,300,000
• Hawthorn 46 Illawarra – Mark Dayman – Bought Before – $4,250,000
• Brighton 33 Middle Crescent – Jason Swift – 3 bidders – $4,300,000
• Malvern East 8 Westgarth – Andrew Macmillan – 2 bidders – Post Auction Buy a smidge under $3,000,000
• Hawthorn 45 Mason – Scott Patterson – 4 bidders – Under  the Hammer over $3,100,000
• Malvern East 118 Finch – Bought for $3,150,000
• Kew 4 Madden – Peter Batrouney – Bought After – 1 bidder
• East Melbourne – John Bongiorno – 3 bidders – $3,000,000

Some of the biggies that missed the mark

• Balwyn North 15 Stephens  – 2 bidders – Passed In for $3,650,000
• Balwyn North 59 Hosken – Passed In for $4,050,000
• Toorak 44 Verdant – Passed In for $3,750,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson – Passed In for $3,600,000
• Toorak 231 Kooyong – Passed In for $3,500,000
• Malvern East 50 Finch  - 1 Bidder – Passed In $4,100,000

More analysis on Bayside’s summer market can be found in our February $3m+ market report. New and old Brightonians like to buy New in Brighton- see the trend!

Are sellers missing out on Bidders and ultimately better prices because of Sargeants Conveyancing?
A number of  potential bidder’s lawyers will not allow their clients to bid on homes with unmodified Sargeants contracts. Yes this company provides cheap contracts but with completely unacceptable additional Special Condition clauses which buyers cannot agree to. Sargeants is putting not only potential buyers but their vendors into difficult positions. Sargeants are stripping away buyers’ already very limited basic property rights – but that is not good for the sellers either when buyers don’t bid. We do not bid on homes that have unmodified Sargeants contracts – not because we are on some moral crusade (hey we are buyer agents) but because our clients’ solicitors won’t let us. Sellers, our clients money is good money, this weekend we bought 4 from 4 at auction over a million dollars – maybe we didn’t bid on yours because you had an unmodified Sargeants contract.

"Rebel With a Cause" Jason Swift in Action at 33 Middle Crescent Brighton - see below

Biggest Sale: 33 Middle Crescent, Brighton, Jason Swift (Hodges); Bought under the hammer, $4,300,000, 3 bidders
“Hey start me where you like – somebody bounce my ball” cried out the cockney accent of Jason Swift. I loved this auction; it was entertaining , bold and good ‘ol fashion fun. Jason Swift gave us piles of corn, humour, clichés and he gave the auction something else – character and the more important – momentum . At first you might think, hmmm bit strange – bloody Pom doing an auction – but mate he’s as Aussie as Jack Thompson and I loved the way he auctioned this home. The crowd was spread out – the vendor wanted a big but not ridiculous number and with good work pre-auction and a classy performance on the day, Hodges got what their client wanted. Well done Jason; I’m not sure how many people know just how good that was – bringing a crowd with you at this level is what only a few can do well. That was definitely a 2 hat performance. Opened at $3,000,000; on market at $4,200,000 concluding under the hammer at $4,300,000. Great theatre and a great way to finish the day.”

Biggest Pass In: 50 Finch St, Malvern East, John Bongiorno (Marshall White); Passed in $4,100,000, 1 bidder
“What a turnout for this auction! It looked like the whole neighbourhood had turned up, with a crowd of 200 watching auctioneer John Bongiorno in action. However, despite the buzz and the anticipation from the crowd, you could really tell that most of them were there just to sightsee as when the time came for an opening bid all was quiet. An opening vendor bid of $4,000,000 never really got things going, while a late bid from one member of the crowd was all the action that was seen and with that the property was passed in. A lot of people stayed though, either to catch up with each other or to see whether the lone bidder was successful in post-auction negotiations.”

Bidderbuzz Auction: 35 Mason St, Hawthorn, Scott Patterson (Jellis Craig); under the hammer, in excess of $3,100,000. 4 bidders
“A big crowd of around 125 gathered for this Jellis Craig/Kay and Burton auction with Scott Patterson and Michael Armstrong managing proceedings. You could feel there were a lot of bidders ready to go and after a perfectly timed intro form Scott Patterson we were away with a $2,750,000 opening bid. On the market at $3,100,000 and bought under the hammer for an undisclosed price in excess of that. A strong auction and numerous other disappointed bidders didn’t get a look in. This is a good home and so the market is saying good properties will be well supported.”

What the key agents said about the current market:
Geoff Hall, Noel Jones, Camberwell: “Motivated vendors are good right now – we are listing well but buyers seem a little thin on the ground. We think right now there is one buyer for every home and on some homes when we find that buyer we are trying our hardest to put it away. I think last week the market started in balance.”

Tim Heavyside of Fletchers: “Most homes are selling on the day or shortly afterwards – a number are not flying – but they are selling. A lot of stock is about to hit the market in April, after sellers became a bit nervous about entering the market late last year and held their sale up. Now a number of them have decided to sell and consequently we are seeing a stock build up.”

Campbell Cooney of Hodges: “Things firmed up in the market just before Xmas with some difficult homes having price adjustments and selling.  Since January we have had double our normal numbers through OFIs, for instance a normal home where we were having 7 or 8 groups through in November is now having 15 groups through at each inspection.

Both Scott Patterson of Jellis Craig and John Bongiorno of Marshall White reported 70% approx. clearance rates on largish auction stock numbers. Both agree the market is certainly not hot – but it’s not weak either, except possibly at the higher end.

Auction Video: This week we head to sunny Brighton, where we watch Nick Johnstone in action at 2 Maher St. Click on the live action. Apologies – we are in the middle of creating a three video connection each week: Big Issue – Auction Video – Sunday Reflections. There may be some technical difficulties while we put this new automated system in over the next week.

Please Note: we always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be videoed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

Buyer Masterclass: We thought a bit of poetry was in order and while we couldn’t contact Banjo we got his relative Cal Bung to pen us some words.

We Only Buy Homes

CAMBERWELL, 7 Bellett St: A mighty crowd of 120 turned out to watch Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig) in action. Passed in, no bidders

Key Points:

• Stonnington outperformed Boroondara in terms of clearance rate
• The top end is not moving with any conviction, and no sales over $3m have been reported to us this year
• Two big weeks ahead will give a greater indication as to the health of Hawthorn and surrounds. Our thoughts with the numbers at OFI’s  and the quality coming up is that this area should be moving through the gears before Labour Day weekend. However, stay tuned as, while it may have just been cobwebs and the agents are reporting differently, what we witnessed today was still a bit sluggish for this usually ever-reliable market (granted quality was iffy)

Agent Q & A:How have you found non-auction sales so far this year?”
Scott Patterson, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn:“It appears that the Boroondara market has picked up where it left off late last year.  We found the market rallied in late December which meant that several properties were sold privately very close to Christmas resulting in less for buyers to choose from in Jan/Feb.  Additionally, we have noticed strong numbers of potential buyers attending open for inspections and they certainly appear to be gravitating towards the properties being auctioned.  Of the private sales we have made so far this yea, most have been to new buyers fresh to the marketplace in 2011.  Last week Jellis Craig sold 80% of its auctions and we expect to do the same this week-end.  Volume is increasing in the next few weeks which will give a better indicator as to the health of the market.  We anticipate auction clearance rates of 60-70% in the next few months which would provide balanced market conditions.”
Tim Heavyside, Fletchers, Camberwell:“Overall, I have found non-auction sales to be solid for the start of the year.  Seasonally, this is a terrific time to sell a property via a ‘private sale’ before the autumn weight of listings flood the market before Easter (late April).  Astute vendors can either realise a passed-in auction (from late last year) or place their home as a fresh listing to tempt the new stream of buyers entering this late summer season and the start to the calendar year.”

NORTHCOTE, 8 Jessie St: Peter Egan (Nelson Alexander) fields bids from 2 bidders in front of a crowd of 60. Bought under the hammer $1,300,000

Agent Q & A: How have you found non-auction sales so far this year?
David Oster, Jellis Craig, Ivanhoe:“I’ve found non- auction sales still a little grey. Not as much transparency or buyer  comments such as “why hasn’t it gone to auction?”or “when did it pass in?” Whereas at auctions, we have found that they may have only one buyer or may have a strong post auction negotiation. The start of 2011 has been strong with reasonably small stock levels but with (high) demand, i.e. 22 Beauview parade Ivanhoe sold for $1.2m, reserve $1.1m (last week).”
Luke Sacco, Nelson Alexander, Carlton:”We have pretty much sold all our surplus properties from December, however buyers are still cautious as they are waiting to see what condition the market is in for the start of 2011. So it will be interesting to see what results we get today and next week as they will determine what buyers are going to do.”
Peter Egan, Nelson Alexander, Northcote: “We generally sell our houses through auctions however having said that we have sold all our pass-ins from December and are looking forward to seeing the results we get today and next week as they will set the direction the market will take.”

BENTLEIGH, 2 Evelyn St: Ian Whiteside (Hocking Stuart) brings down the hammer at $1,137,000 in front of a crowd of around 80 people. 3 bidders

Around the Grounds
2 Evelyn St, Bentleigh, Ian Whiteside (Hocking Stuart); Bought under the hammer, $1,137,000, 3 bidders
“A large crowd of 80+ people listened attentively to Ian Whiteside’s preamble as he described the merits of this potential development site. Three bidders soon got things going but one dropped out as the price rose quickly. The remaining two fought it out in very small increments until it became obvious that one bidder was very determined to acquire the property. The sale price was $1,137,000, a good result.”

Picture of concentration: Tim Fletcher (Fletchers) at 2 Barnsbury Rd, Balwyn. Bought after auction $2,585,000, 1 bidder

Key Points:

• Crowds smaller and less bidders with a clearance rate at 62% – lowish for Boroondara, however there were around 50 auctions over $1 million.
• Hottest market is for the $1,200,000 to $1,600,000 double fronted timber home in need of some work with a market price tag on it.
• Scott Patterson MD of Jellis Craig: Clearance Rate expected around the mid 60% level, but that is normal for this time of the year. The Asian community is complaining about the high Aussie dollar and their market is tracking down. Well credentialed and well-priced homes are going, but those vendors priced a little bit too high are simply not selling. A high ask strategy is nowhere near as successful now as it was this time last year or even earlier this year.

Highlights:

• Kew, 50 Charles, Paul Keane of Jellis Craig – going nowhere for some time then some interest, then – bang: a boardroom auction and a result well north of $4,200,000 was achieved on the night.
• Hawthorn 41 Wattle Road – good home on the market for some time. Bought for well over $5,000,000 also through Paul Keane Jellis Craig
• Balwyn 6 Ropley Laurence Murphy of Hocking Stuart – brand new French provincial believed to be over $3,000,000. The Aussie dollar may be hurting but the market still has a passion for these sorts of homes.

$3m+ not so highlights:

• Hawthorn 5 Yarra: Passed In $4,500,000: Zero Bidders
• Canterbury 35 Logan: Passed In for $2,860,000: Zero bidders

Agent Q & A: In terms of real estate, what has happened this year and what do you expect to happen next year?
Scott Patterson, Jellis Craig, Hawthorn:“2010 started very strongly with healthy demand in February and March.  Sellers realised that this might be their last chance to capitalise on a rising market so they flooded the market in May and June.  Increased volume had an adverse affect on auction clearance rates and we started to see a softening in the market by about June.  School holidays interrupted July and then we had the Federal Election in August which was unresolved for several weeks – again adding to the uncertainty.  Clearance rates dropped back to around 70% compared to 85% in 2009.  September/October saw two football grand finals play out, which meant the predictions of a late Spring were correct.  An interest rate rise on Cup Day and the threat of further increases has dampened enthusiasm and we now see clearance rates hovering around 60% compared to 80% for the corresponding period last year.  On a positive note, properties in quality locations are still attracting strong interest – however it is fair to say that we are noticing less desperation amongst buyers.  Vendors now need to revise their expectations if they are serious about selling this side of Christmas, otherwise the market will go to sleep from December 24 – January 18.  Next year will be ‘steady as she goes’ in my opinion.  We are predicting slow growth rather than the dramatic price increases we have seen in previous years.  A lot will depend on interest rate rises next year as a series of rises tends to affect buyer confidence.”

Tim Wilson and Jeremy Fox get ready to do battle at 2 Bromley Toorak, but in the end there were not in the trenches and they stood there as generals and watched 3 bidders slug it out to $5,600,000 - $800,000 over reserve.

Week Ending November 27th:

The high end ($3m+) which like the proverbial brides nightie (not sure if I can say that) is up and down at the drop of a hat. A fortnight ago it was up and last week it was down – this week it was up and in a big way – below are some of the results.

Highlights:

• Toorak 2 Bromley with Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar for 5,600,000 – 3 bidders (see report)
• Hampton 3 Lorraine for over $3,000,000 with Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon (Expression of Interest)
• Armadale Adelaide (Off Market)
• Hawthorn 41 Wattle Road – good home on the market for some time bought for well over $5,000,000 through Paul Keane Jellis Craig
• South Yarra 2/155 Domain Road Marcus Chiminello of Marshall White bought for in excess of $7,500,000 or $20,000 per square metre  (Off Market)
• Toorak 88 Mathoura Road for $6,500,000 bought before – also Marcus Chiminello
• Armadale 12 Munro with Tim Derham, passed in at auction last weekend at $3,000,000 and has been bought afterwards.

$3m+ not so highlights:

• Brighton 12a Manor: Passed In $3,800,000: Zero Bidders
• Hawthorn 5 Yarra: Passed In $4,500,000: Zero Bidders
• South Yarra 16 William: Passed In $4,200,000: Zero Bidders
• Canterbury 35 Logan: Passed In for $2,860,000: Zero bidders

South Melbourne 9 Anderson: An exciting auction which had a buzz from the crowd, trams, birds and sounds of people playing sport down the street at the Melbourne Sports And Aquatic Centre. Geoff Cayzer was auctioneer and, although soft spoken, he was very entertaining with his humour and pre-auction speech. This lightened the atmosphere and allowed two bidders to fight it out after Mr Cayzer's opening bid of $2,850,000. The battle wasn't long though as after some 5 bids the hammer was brought down and the property sold for $3,250,000, which brought cheers and jubilation from the winning bidder's party. A great, fun and entertaining auction to watch.

Week Ending November 20th:

This market seems clear as mud in terms of short term directional pointers. Some good ones sold, some good ones didn’t and all on a turnover down on this time last year and down on September of this year. But the market hasn’t stopped completely in its tracks eg 50 Charles Kew with Paul Keane of Jellis Craig – going nowhere for some time then some interest, then bang a boardroom auction and well north of $4,200,000 was achieved on the night. On the quiet side, a second off market north of $13,000,000 in recent times – actually it was over $15million and in establishment Toorak – Mike Gibson from Kay and Burton the selling agent.

$3M+ Highlights

• Malvern 116 Stanhope: Paul Keane of Jellis Craig. Bought for just under $3,500,000
• South Melbourne 9 Anderson: Geoff Cayzer. Bought under the hammer for $3,250,000: 2 bidders
• Ivanhoe 9 Nyorie: David Oster of Jellis Craig. Bought after auction for $3,100,000: 2 bidders

$3M+ not so Highlights:

• East Melbourne 105 George: Passed In on a vendor bid for $4,500,000
• Malvern 1 Wilks: Passed In on a vendor bid for $3,000,000
• Armadale 12 Munro: Passed In on a vendor bid for $3,000,000

Great Expectations but in the end it was more like Bleak House as 50 Hotham Melbourne East failed to sell under the hammer. Passed In for $7,000,000. Glen Coutinho of Hocking Stuart

Week Ending November 13th:

………But this new state of affairs does not apply so much to the $3m+ market which was a little less shiny today after shining like a beacon 7 days ago. In fact there were a number of significant pass-ins at this level this weekend.

So in a nutshell: last week’s doom and gloom on low quality stock and a negative feel mid-week at open-for-inspections was followed by a bit of a bounce-back this weekend – with more homes selling than expected. But that’s not to say it’s a strong sellers market by any stretch of the imagination. At present the market is, in our opinion, between cool and warm, depending on the quality of the stock. We await with interest next week’s instalment as to where our late Spring market is heading.

Highlights

• 32 Linlithgow, Toorak (Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar) was the biggest sale of the day (see report below)
• 4 Snowden, Canterbury (James Tostevin and Duane Wolowiec of Marshall White), Bought after at an undisclosed price of more than $3,000,000.
• 35 Cole St Brighton (Ian Jackson of Kay and Burton), Bought at auction for a shade over $3,500,000 – after not selling at an Expressions of Interest campaign earlier in the year

Lowlights

• The weather
• Biggest Pass-In was at 50 Hotham East Melbourne, a great home with an 800+ James Rating. It failed to attract any bidding near the reserve and was passed in at $7,000,000
• $3M+ pass-ins at 188 The Esplanade Brighton, 3 Buley Hawthorn East, 18 Heyington and 12 Merriwee Toorak

Camberwell 18 Currajong: 3 bidders, 3 advocates and one great auction: Maurice Di Marzio: Bought under the hammer for $3,375,000

Week Ending November 6th:

What a difference a month and some increased stock levels make. If you have a look at our $3m section in October and compare it to our September report you will see a big difference in activity, especially when you consider the market had a clean run in October with no election and limited footy interruptions, and had five

Click on video to see $3m auctions live

auction Saturdays. This market is as fickle as the horse race we love to watch. In Winter this market was down, in September it definitely perked up and now the $3m+ and off-markets would appear to be edging downwards again. But again the statistics are hiding the full story: there were in fact a few sales over this level we have been asked not to report on, and we ourselves have purchased four off-markets over $1million in the last month, in Brighton, Clifton Hill, Hawthorn and Caulfield. Plus look at this weekend’s $3m+ results! The fact is, there is still plenty of activity – just not as public as in September. There are good homes available for sale off market if you know where to look.

• Elwood 45 Dickens: Jason Scillio: Under Hammer: $3,535,000:  3 bidders
  A large crowd gathered in the front garden of this magnificent property to hear Jason Scillio provide a well prepared preamble prior to inviting bids from a large crowd on this beautiful afternoon. After the usual hesitation, strong bidding emerged from three buyers and it was on the market at $3,450,000. The house was soon bought with a strong bid $3,535,000. (David James)

• Carlton North 810 Drummond:  Tom Roberts:  Under Hammer  $3,450,000:  3 bidders
  What a home. This is the best example of the saying ‘don’t judge a book by its cover’.  It is an ugly duckling from the street, but when you walk through the door you’re hit with one of the most stunning living area renovations I have seen in Inner Melbourne. The auction itself started with a pretend bid at $2,000,000 that was immediately countered by auctioneer Tom Roberts with a vendor bid at $3,000,000 and she took off from there. Three bidders and on the market at $3,300,000 before settling at $3,450,000 in front of a crowd of 125.

• Toorak 6 Benson: Gowan Stubbings: Bought around $3,000,000: 3 bidders
  A great auction to watch. Auctioneer Gowan Stubbings led the way, offering a vendor bid of $2,400,000 after a member of the crowd offered an initial bid of $2,350,000. With three bidders overall, it became a battle between two very confident, strong parties, both determined to fight it out to the very end. One bidder offered increments of $10,000 and even $100,000, while the other settled on $1000 increments each time. Ultimately, the $1000 bidder won, walking away with the property for an undisclosed amount close to $3,000,000. A very entertaining auction with a crowd of around 60. (Jen Milligan)

• Some solid results outside Saturday’s auction:
  Toorak 63 St Georges: Andrew Baines of Kay and Burton: Expression of Interest for just under $8 million. Went through this home and tennis court.It had a good feel and, just as the ad says, an exclusive street address. At around $4,000 per sqm it was a win for the buyer and seller.
  Two blocks of flats sold at mid week auctions: South Yarra 28 Tivoli ($4,825,000)  Philippe Batters: 46 Ulupna; Ormond ($3,700,000) Andrew Chisholm.
  Brighton 11 Kent Campbell Cooney was bought post auction for $4,100,000, which put south-facing, non beachfront land on the Golden Mile at $3,800 per sqm

• It was gratifying to see the number of professional advocates acting for buying clients this weekend. The Bidderbuzz auction at Currajong auction had three advocates, and there was one each on Benson, Drummond, Elwood. While the advocate didn’t win the chocolates for their clients every time, at least it shows more $1m, $2m, and $3m+ buyers are making informed decisions.

Ivanhoe, 9 Nyorie Crt, David Oster (Jellis Craig); Bought after auction, $3,100,000, 2 bidders

Around the Grounds:
Parkville, 543 Royal Pde, Craig Shearn (Jellis Craig);
“The auction of this Royal Parade home had all the makings of an entertaining event, with a picturesque location, a lively crowd in attendance and just the right amount of sunshine in which those gathered could bask. Auctioneer Craig Shearn competed valiantly with the noise of the passing Saturday traffic as he commenced his preamble prior to the main event. However when Mr Shearn asked the 40+ onlookers for some audience participation there was distinct silence, prompting an opening vendor bid of $1,500,000. This, being the only bid of the auction, the property was passed in, leaving the crowd to slowly disperse.” (Nikki Hills)

Richmond, 177 Brighton St, Andrew Macmillan (BenMac);
“Andrew Macmillan of Bennison Mckinnon gave the neighbours of Brighton Street a lesson in history before the auction commenced at number 177. Unfortunately this failed to generate any action or interest from the crowd and the property passed in on a vendor bid of $1,050,000.” (David McMillan)

Ivanhoe, 9 Nyorie Crt, David Oster (Jellis Craig);
“All the stars were aligned here – the most magnificent day Melbourne could produce, approximately 4,000 square feet of land fronting the Yarra river and crowd of 120 people all in shock over this amazing property. Auctioneer David Oster starting proceedings with a vendor bid of $2,600,000 to get things started which it did and two bidders took the price to $2,950,000 before the the property was passed in. Bought after for $3,100,000.” (Guy Angwin)

Richmond, 177 Brighton St, Andrew Macmillan (BenMac); Passed in, $1,050,000, no bidders.

Camberwell, 37 Bringa Ave, James Tostevin (Marshall White); Bought under the hammer, $1,960,000, 5 bidders

Key Points:

• Clearance Rate this week on the almost 50 auctions over $1 million we monitored was 58%. Not the usual we would expect in this area, but a lot better than last week.
• Stock quality on offer was below average, so this weekend represented a bit of a bounceback. Only three properties priced at more than $2 million dollars sold.
• A total of 24 bidders across the auctions we attended – so buyers are still there
• Minimal activity mid week outside auctions

Trend Buyer Info Graphs: Are now to the right of this article

Off Market and $3m+:
Some activity in off markets but precious little sold that was priced over $3 million. 4 Snowden, Canterbury with Duane Woloweic and James Tostevin was the exception.

Biggest Sale: Camberwell,  3 Gilbert Pde, Scott Patterson (Jellis Craig); Under the hammer, $2,031,000, 2 bidders
“Scott Patterson was, as always, in good spiritis as he kicked off proceedings with a vendor bid of $1,750,000. Two bidders joined in the action and the property was quickly on the market at $1,980,000. Bought under the hammer for $2,031,000.” (Adam Woledge)

Biggest Pass In: Hawthorn East, 3 Buley St, Glen Coutinho ( Hocking Stuart); Passed in $3,500,000, 0 bidders
“As the weather was overcast, auctioneer Glen Coutinho decided to hold the auction inside so that he could keep the crowd warm and focused on making bids. There may not have been any lightning outside, but there sure was inside – as Mr Coutinho wrapped up the auction in a flash. After his introduction he put in a vendor bid of $3,500,000 and then passed it in when he saw there was no interest from the crowd.” (Joshua Bong)

Bidderbuzz Auction: Glen Iris, 17 Walerna Rd, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White); Under the Hammer, $1,640,000, 6 bidders
“The wet weather brought this auction indoors, but the rain did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm and excitement that followed. Auctioneer Doug McLauchlan led proceedings in the warm family room in front of a crowd of around 60 people. He didn’t have to wait long for an opening bid, which came from the crowd at $1,350,000. Soon there were two bidders, then three, four, five and six. Rapid-fire bidding between the first and last bidders saw the property on the market at $1,520,000 and the hammer came down shortly after at $1,640,000. A fantastic, entertaining auction that had it all – 6 bidders, fast bidding and a good, appreciative crowd.” (Jen Milligan)

Agent Q & A: How much value do you put on land? How much on the building? And finally, how much is to do with emotion?
Tim Fletcher, Fletchers, Canterbury: “The value of land is – and always will be – fundamental to the success of your investment. But where you buy is of utmost importance.  This is particularly evident now that the market is more realistic, as demand always wanes first in second and third choice areas – but continues to flourish, or at least remains stable, in suburbs closer to the city that provides excellent infrastructure.  In fact, many recent results show some units and apartments in great areas are selling for outstanding prices, reflecting that position is more important than land! There is a great misunderstanding about the value of improvements (buildings) in a very high land content area.  In many cases it is not a matter of how much they add to the land but how much they detract, so it is a misnomer to determine the value of a comparable lot and add a number for the improvements, even though the buildings may be sound and appropriate at the time of construction, in time they may come to undercapitalise the land. Emotions certainly play a major (though not easily defined) role in determining value.  Naturally, it depends on whose point of view you consider.  A vendor has more of an emotional investment in a property, although a builder would not.  Certainly if the property is an outstanding Victorian property that can be renovated, emotions will come into play for purchasers as well.”

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