James Paynter in action at 66 Victoria Sandringham - sold under the hammer for $3,500,000 - 3 bidders.

Saturday May 20th Biggest Auctions:

• Canterbury, 35 Monomeath Ave, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White) passed in and bought afterwards, $4,200,000+, no bidders
  The weather was still and the crowd was strong at this auction – with about 100 people in attendance…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Sandringham, 66 Victoria St, James Paynter (Hodges), under the hammer, $3,500,000, 3 bidders
  An amazing Sandringham house in a popular street, and a decent sized crowd of around 50 had turned up to see what would happen at auction on Saturday…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Fitzroy North, 39 Alfred Crescent, Arch Staver (Nelson Alexander) under the hammer for $4,200,000, 3 bidders
• Caulfield North, 3 Airdrie Road, Darren Krongold (Gary Peer) at auction a tiddly bit under $3,000,000.
• Toorak, 2 Brookville Road, Heather Elder (Marshall White) at auction also a tiddly bit under $3,000,000.

• Kew, 61-63 Alfred St,  passed in, $5,300,000, 2 bidders
  “A landmark auction” were the words that auctioneer Richard James used to describe this auction…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Kew, 1 Selbourne Rd, passed in, $3,670,000, 2 bidders
  Landmark Kew property and this auction was well supported by a solid crowd of around 100 people….(See More in Auction Reports)
• Toorak, 29 Linlithgow, passed in, $3,500,000

35 Hampden Armadale - Over $9,000,000 (Jeremy Fox)

Friday 18th May: Some more $8M+ activity this week with 35 Hampden Armadale (Jeremy Fox) on the public market for a week and sold somewhere between $9,000,000 and $10,000,000. The Art Deco home with tennis court on over 1800 square metres had a James Rating of over 850/1000 for full reports see below and 129 Domain Road (a block of high end apartments) sold through Andrew Baines and Jock Langley for in excess of $8,000,000.

Top End apartments have seen a few sales this last fortnight or so with Peter Kudelka  selling Springfield avenue Toorak before auction for we believe in the mid $3m’s and Marcus Chiminello has sold two apartments at 103 Mathoura Road – including the penthouse for over $4,000,000 and ground floor number 2 for over $3,000,000. These sales represent per sqm rates according of $12,000 plus.

Canterbury 162 Mont Albert Road. Scott Patterson and Tim Picken. Bought Under the Hammer $4,166,000, 3 bidders

Saturday May 12th: Some solid results at the Top End this weekend with 4 from 4 above 4

• Toorak, 10 Rathmines St, Jeremy Fox (RT Edgar), after auction, above $4,300,000
  Auctioneer Jeremy Fox looked quite regal positioned in front of this imposing property flanked by his support team…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Canterbury, 162 Mont Albert Rd, Scott Patterson (Kay & Burton), under the hammer, $4,166,000, 3 bidders
  A medium size crowd gathered in the front garden of this home on the Golden Mile…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Balwyn, 6-8 Fitzgerald St, Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig),under the hammer, $4,025,000, 2 bidders
  The team at Jellis Craig had a reason to smile today, especially Alastair Craig with four of his auctions selling including this property…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Kew, 50 Fellows St, Tom Aylward (Jellis Craig), under the hammer, $4,000,000 plus, 2 bidders.

At $3m it was 50/50 on 8 sales expected to be around $3m and above

• Carlton North, 57 Wilson, Peter Stephens (Nelson Alexander) at auction over $3,500,000
• Richmond, 51 Richmond Terrace, James Tostevin, at auction over $3,000,000
• Armadale, 24 Denbigh Rd, John Morrisby (Jellis Craig), after auction for an amount in excess of $3,000,000,  4 bidders
  John Morrisby kindly provided us with the following information…(See More in Auction Reports)

And some of the pass-ins

• Toorak, 9 Landale Rd, passed in $3,000,000, no bidders
  Showing an affinity for round numbers, auctioneer Gowan Stubbings kicked things off with a vendor bid of $3,000,000…(See More in Auction Reports)
• Middle Park, 68 Park Rd, passed in $2,850,000, no bidders
  A crowd of 60, including a number of young children and dogs, stood widely dispersed in the tree lined street…(See More in Auction Report)
• Brighton, 5 Birdwood Ave, passed in $2,800,000, no bidders
  The sun shone brightly in the front yard of this Spanish Mission style home in Brighton’s Golden Mile…(See More in Auction Reports)

39-41 Mayfield Avenue Malvern over $7million

Saturday 5th May: Today there were two strong results today in the $3m+ segment – but if you dig a little deeper there was a decided lack of interest in a number of homes that passed-in aiming towards $3m.

Malvern, 39-43 Mayfield Ave, Gerald Delaney (Kay & Burton), under the hammer, $7,131,510, 3 bidders
It felt like an entourage of Kay & Burton agents in attendance here and it did take a bit to get going due to the wet weather…(See More in Auction Reports)

Camberwell, 35 Broadway, Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig), under the hammer, $3,425,000, 6 bidders
A much anticipated auction this one as the property was a rare offering – an original home with fantastic bones on excellent land size and prized north facing rear…(See More in Auction Reports)

Pass-Ins

Brighton, 10 Kent Ave, passed in, $3,300,000, 2 bidders
Nick Johnstone is re-auctioning this Golden Mile new build after an unsuccessful effort last year in front of a crowd of around 60…(See More in Auction Reports)

Armadale, 20 Royal Crescent, passed in, $2,500,000, no bidders
There is something about Wayne Gillespie designed spaces – they just work well in terms of proportion and functionality, and the extension at 20 Royal Crescent is no different…(See More in Auction Reports)

St Cloud - 61 Kensington South Yarra - the 5th sale at circa $10m in a month

Early May:Five sales around $10 million mark in recent weeks – but the momentum may be easing.
Before we cover the marginal negative change in market sentiment over the past couple of weeks at the Ultra Top End, we feel it’s important to highlight the 5th sale at around $10 million that took place recently and that confirmed both the Pre Easter market spike and the power of the Kay and Burton Mexican Wave. The latest, a property at 61 Kensington South Yarra, was sold by Andrew Baines (he will need a tax advisor this month!) for more than $13,000,000. The property had something of a chequered past in terms of being on again, off again, sold, then sort of sold, then not sold. As a large landholding so close to the CBD it had positives. But it also had negatives: being near the freeway (noise) and overlooking power lines (visuals). That is what made for an interesting deal – it was a battle of wide opinions. Nonetheless it sold.

That makes a total of five sales in recent weeks at around the $10 million mark. Four were from Kay and Burton and one was from Marshall White.

So, after almost nothing for six months (a Kenley and maybe a Linlithgow excepted), bang – five were gone in a fortnight or so. Obviously buyers and sellers felt better and the K&B agents clearly smelled that. They did their Mexican Wave job well and pre-warned a number of buyers through a whisper campaign of what may happen. And see what happened! As soon as the first domino fell, the agents shouted (quietly) from the roof tops “Told you so” – and that lit the fuse on four more circa $10 million sales.

At times like this, when skilled agents are involved, certain homes appear to be under an irresistible force and deals get done. There is nothing wrong with this. It’s brilliant marketing and it’s what needs to happen to get a number of deals over the line. It’s not all buyers either – sellers are in on the Mexican Wave as well. They hear the whispers, see the results, get told “I told you so” too, and their price dexterity improves as they see real, concrete opportunity floating by.

However now that the early pre-Easter selling season is over, it seems that momentum has been lost again and the buying crowd are refocused on another game.

In the last few weeks the gloss at the Top End has faded a bit. Buyers are not quite as excited about what’s on offer – understandably given there are not a lot of publicly listed new hotties out there. As well some sellers have unwisely misread the recent activity as a market price increase and as such, without thinking, have in many cases put their homes back into the too hard basket.

What do the agents think?

We asked them: ‘Has the market changed a bit in the last week or two?’

Marcus Chiminello, of Marshall White, says that the market has definitely lost some of its ‘ooommpph’ in the last fortnight. ‘But this in my opinion is due to the almost complete lack of new and exciting stock.’

Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton says that while the market is very healthy – his company made four sales totalling around $50m around Easter – he does acknowledge that in the last fortnight ‘we have seen a loss of the momentum and this in my opinion is due almost entirely to the lack of new good quality stock at market prices.’

The Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts can have  mixed results at the Top End.

The Reserve Bank gave us all a bit of a surprise with its recent rate cut of 50 basis points. But the impact of the rate cuts at the Top End will be mixed.

The diagram below shows the progress of two identical hypothetical negotiations that started before Easter. Back then the difference between what the sellers wanted and what buyers were prepared to offer was $600,000.

With the interest rate cuts, a couple of results could eventuate – especially at the Top End where often there is only one buyer.

On the one hand, a lower interest rate may give the buyer confidence to offer a higher price, as long as they are feeling secure in their job. At the same time, if the seller was say overseas and had an exposure to currency movements, the interest rate change may make the seller nervous. A large exchange fluctuation can alter the value of an offer more radically than any agent argy-bargy. So a seller at exchange risk may alter their price and help the deal and a buyer who is secure in their job may also help the deal in going a little stronger as he finds borrowing to be marginally cheaper. With just a $100,000 difference between offer and expectation there may well be a deal done.

Alternatively, the events of the last few weeks may have the opposite effect. The seller may have looked at some of the recent strong sales on the Top End market and have lifted their expectations even higher thus widening the gap. The buyer on the other hand may look at the interest rate cuts as an indicator of a struggling economy, and become more concerned about their future employment prospects, prompting him or her to reduce his original offer. Now the deal is even further apart, with a difference of $900,000 between offer and expectation.

The point of this hypothetical is to show how complex negotiations can be at this level, and how as a buyer you’ve got to navigate through a number of possible scenarios.

How do you get validation if you want to do more in the way of due diligence than take the selling agent’s word as gospel?

Personal Research – At the moment researching the high end without being in the know has a higher degree of difficulty than an Olympic half pike from the high tower – there seems tremendous secrecy surrounding every sale. With secrecy comes its close friend “uninformed speculation“. And when you throw into the mix limited numbers of sales, inexperienced buyers can bake a very different cake when it comes to value.

Valuers – This is fast becoming a profession under siege as margins are cut dramatically by banks. This means cost-cutting internally, which can lead to a lowering of standards. And once habits of careful fact checking are replaced by wham-bam phone calls to those who have vested interests in rubbery figures, all of a sudden we no longer have credible valuations. Which is not to say that there are not some excellent valuers out there for the Top End. But you need to question whether you should rely on those who have massive contracts with large developers, or who approach their valuations at 60 kilometres per hour with a Google maps mentality. Sure, they’ll fit in with what the selling agents tell you. And there won’t be any problems with the bank lending you the money. But if the figures you’re given are unreliable, you may have a big problem on your hands when it comes to resale.

Solution: Deal with the people who do the deals. Engage them to act on your behalf and ask them to justify and prove their selling or buying price thoughts. If the deal is big enough get verification though a reputable valuer – not one recommended by a selling agent, and not one who specialises in $400,000 Werribee homes – but a real one. Their fee is between $3,000 and $4,000. In this low transaction and therefore weak information market they can be more valuable than a building inspector.

So how do you negotiate in this market?

When validation is not possible and the market is unclear going forward, you really need to be on your game when making decisions – presuming that good decisions are your aim.

So as boring as it sounds, be clear on your goals and whether they fit this market. For instance, buying a home with a short term time horizon and wanting low risk are almost mutually exclusive concepts right now.

Longer term buying may well meet your emotional and financial goals.

Let’s skip the search strategies and some due diligence and get to pricing.

In this market its about price framing rather than price negotiation – by which I mean that haggling over $100,000 is really not the main game, it’s getting into the correct $1,000,000 segment in the first place that’s the most important.

A smidge of what we’ve looked at recently

61 Clendon Road, Toorak with Michael Gibson and Matt Davis. The quote price is $16m to $18m and it’s big land – around an acre  in the old language. The home is a beautiful one and for me the highlight is the library. It perhaps lacks a grand room, but that won’t  be an issue for the purchaser who will have plenty of scope to do what they want. The gardens are expansive and if you have the botanical  passion you will have the room to do something special. Full rating possible.

Off Market in Hawthorn with Jock Langley. The quote is $6m plus and it is a north facing rear, larger period home with tennis court.  The home itself needs a reconfiguration to bring its floor plan into the 21st Century and the garage placement needs some thought to take  full advantage of what’s on offer. Full rating for clients only.

61-63 Alfred St, Kew with Jin Shang from Jellis Craig. This 2300 sqm block with a large period home was sold at public auction in  May 2009 with strong bidding. I remember it well: half a dozen bidders got it to just under $5m. The overseas surge was just starting after the FIRB changes. Two years on and with no major changes to this “back to front” floor plan it will be interesting to see how the market now views this home. A big auction on May 19th. Full rating available.

And one by the beach – 43 Seacombe Grove Brighton with Barb Gregory of Marshall White. No quote is allowed under Executor’s  instructions, but circa $8m is what they may say if they were giving a quote. Interesting variables in this one are the quality of the view – it is strong - and how much extra this is worth. The ability to rebuild close to the front (STCA) and therefore take advantage of this incredible view is another plus. And finally there is a question as to what is the actual land size that prospective buyers will use in their calculations. This is far from a “normal” block. Brighton waterfront has been going at around $10,000 per sq metre for a few sales now, but $12 million wouldn’t seem right for this home given a lot of the block would be classified as driveway access. So is it in fact a 600 sqm  or 800 sqm or 1000 sqm block plus driveway? And is the market still at $10,000 per sqm for land as it was in recent sales at Mytton  and Shandford?

22 South Road Brighton - Mark Earle - Bought After - $3,255,000 - 3 bidders

Saturday April 21st: 22 South Road Brighton (Peter Hickey) Bought After $3,255,000
James Auction Report: Thought I would come to see the only $3m auction on offer today – that is if it is actually gets $3m+.  Auctioneer Mark Earle strides out in front of a crowd of around 60 and launches into a synopsis of the rules, some pearls on the market and his thoughts about how good this home is. Well down to business, let’s see if any bidders share his views on this 1700sqm rambling home with tennis court on South Road. A fair and reasonable start is called for, but none is forthcoming and so a vendor bid is made at $3,000,000. To be honest the crowd doesn’t seem to be excited about things – but in balance it’s unlikely to have anymore than one or two bidders – but it will sell eventually as tennis courts always do. After some patter and some fill a grumpy $3,000,000 is called out and is excepted and replaces the vendor bid. A second bidder tries to get out $3,020,000 but is beaten by a third bidder to $3,050,000 and two bids later we are at $3,100,000. A hesitation and another $25,000 comes from Bidder one to $3,125,000. Bidder Three is looking at Bidder Two who goes to $3,150,000 and after Bidder One says he is out Bidder Three comes in at $3,175,000. Strangely the on the market question is not asked. Mark is working the bidders well and extracts a smaller bid after his suggestion of $10,000 and then a $5,000 and it’s passed in at $3,190,000. Good auctioneering and it’s passed in – it will sell. It did.

35 Sussex St Brighton (Jason Gill) – a home in need of some serious work on good land (880 sqm) has been sold – short or initial expectations but nonetheless a solid number below $2,800,000.

13 Washington Toorak (Hugh Hardy) – a quiet off market of land only – 700 sqm selling for above $5,500 per sq metre.

March finished pretty strongly and, despite a big slowdown in terms of April auctions and new stock, the deals have kept coming. The mainstream media have been claiming a slowdown based on a few paltry sales last weekend, but they’ve been eating a bit too much chocky if they think that represents a true sample of what is happening out there right now at the Top End.  While price is still very iffy, interest isn’t.

May is the pointer for 2012 and we are looking at a number of off market homes and pre-market homes (for listing in May). Which means there will be enough on offer to see where that 2012 pointer goes. Our feelings are that prices are still stabilising and that activity is OK.

Last year we had three activity spikes – one around Easter, one in September and a small one for two weeks in December. Those spikes featured homes in and around $3m to $7m.

March 2012 was definitely a spike in terms of activity and April has continued in that vein; not so much in terms of numbers (due to the holidays) but in terms of substantial deals.

Worth noting are four recent sales at around the $10 million mark (3 over and 1 just under). What that says is that people are acting. We last saw this level of activity in August last year where $55 million worth of property sold across 11 sales. In some ways the 2012 Easter weekend was just as impressive with 3 and possibly a 4th ultra-quiet sale in South Yarra transacting for over $10 million and another one very close to it.

A quick rundown on some of the biggies:

• Level 39, Royal Domain Tower, 368 St Kilda Road, Melbourne
  Whole floor in excess of 50 squares. Sold by Andrew Baines of Kay and Burton – Over $8,000,000.
• 26 Albany Road Toorak
  Set on grounds totaling approximately 2,476sqm, a championship-size tennis court and indoor/outdoor pool. Sold by Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton. Over $10,000,000. On the market for over a year and offers back and forth saw this home sell in excess for we believe $11,000,000.
• 1 Millswyn St South Yarra
  On 2,152sqm approx in South Yarra – yes it’s part commercial but it’s a big piece of residential dirt. Sold by Michael Gibson and Matt Davis of Kay and Burton for over $10,000,000 we believe.
• 21- 23 Kooyoongkoot Road Hawthorn – Sold by Marcus Chiminello of Marshall White. Over $12,000,000
  Tennis court court and pool on 2,788 sqm – just down from another big parcel of land at 33 which sold for around $8,000,000 last month.
• 49 Irving Road Toorak – it’s been on the market longer than Richmond has been trying to win their latest premiership but it has finally been put away by Jeremy Fox for $5,000,000 on the knocker.
• 7 Maple Grove Toorak - slightly dated home with a tricky floor plan. Sold by Michael Armstrong for over $4,500,000
• 38 Havelock Road Hawthorn East – 1300+ sqm in size, had been on the market for some time with initial quotes in excess of $4 million. Sold by Glen Coutinho of Hocking Stuart for just above the mid $3 millions.
• And the Balwyn Formula is back in vogue (sort of), that is, small land, big new home and big price – with 3 such homes recently sold in the suburb: 57 Citview (Brett Philipp);  31 Elliott (John Bradbury) and 111 Winmalee (Jin Shang). All sold for between $2,800,000 and $3,200,000 with land sizes between 650 and 750 sq metres. Prices are down but activity is improving.
• 79 Beaconsfield Parade Albert Park – the sale was managed by Paul Western of Cayzer Real Estate.   On land of 409m2. Passed in at auction on the 3/03/12 and sold on 4/04/12 in the range of $3.2m to $3.5m

Down Bayside way things have been a bit quieter, but that is after a dozen or so $3m+ sales last month. One recent sale was 32 Dawson Avenue (newish home in the Golden Mile), sold by Chris Bevan for an undisclosed amount.

This month, like last month and next month, is shaping up as good solid activity months for buyers and sellers, a number of high end quality agents and the $3m+ market overall.

So if you want to buy there seems little reason to be totally negative, sensible on price and quality yes, but not totally negative. While the market may be down in terms of price from last year and activity is still nowhere near the stellar heights of 2010, there is definitely a heartbeat at this Top End level right now, and that is good news for sellers and buyers alike.

As a company we have been involved in seven deals over a million in April – with three purchased to date and four still pending. The three we purchased were: an Off Market around Gasworks Park in Albert Park (Kaine Lanyon); a pre auction sale in Richmond (Luke Schickerling) and a holiday home (private auction) at Fairhaven with Marty Maher from Great Ocean Properties. We should add that the three agents in these cases were professional to deal with and got solid prices for their vendors – two of the three had multiple bidding.

Finally it does look like the Kay and Burton Mexican Wave is back – although we are not sure that is good news for us buyers and hopefully it won’t last too long.

And to finish with some balance – there are still a number of homes out there that haven’t sold: Kooyongkoot Road, Central Park Road, Kooyong Road to name a few – they are really good homes but ……..

May is looking reasonable for new stock.

Life’s OK.

Prahran, 4 Grandview, Jeremy Fox, Under the hammer, $4,570,000. 3 bidders

Saturday March 31st: Solid finish to the month – partly as a result of vendors lowering their expectations as they feel the market may get worse before it gets better, partly due to some good stock and partly because buyers can’t really see anything of note on the market after Easter.

But to keep some perspective if you read our archived $3m+ reports of previous years you will see the same buoyant activity leading into Easter -  its after Easter that gets interesting.

Big Day at Auctions for the Top End

• Prahran, 4 Grandview, Jeremy Fox,  under the hammer $4,570,000, 3 bidders. This was a Super Saturday sizzler! Three determined bidders contested for this breathtaking property after auctioneer Jeremy Fox kicked things off with an opening vendor bid of $4,000,000. It was a little slow at first but the action heated up as the third bidder chimed in. He eventually secured the property for $4,570,000 and that sparked applause from the 130 onlookers.
  James Home Rating 865/1000 “I found it hard to find fault with this home – its WOW all over – the flow works brilliantly, locale for Prahran is in THE street and garaging, kitchen, laundry set up is efficient and classy – the north light is brought in nicely into living areas. The bedroom set up works and the reflection pools aren’t twee they are classy. Do I sound over the top on this? This home will fly and I mean fly unless the RT boys cook the quote or the vendor is dreaming. Best guide is 51 Murray St Prahran in May 2010 (See our rating and auction report, over $3,700,000) and the recent sale of similar land size without the same WOW by same company a couple of weeks ago at 22 Murray St (north of $3,400,000). Our suggested strategy to buy – dig deep on the day or go hard and early now!  ” Mal James

• Armadale, 3/50 Hampden, John Bongiorno, under the hammer, $3,360,000. 2 bidders.  Last sold for just over $2,500,000 in 2005.
• Toorak, 27 Selborne, Jeremy Fox, after auction,  $3,300,000, 1 bidder

Pass-Ins

• Toorak 49 Irving, Passed In on a vendor bid at $4,500,000
• Camberwell, 12a Royal, Passed In on a vendor bid at $4,100,000

February Top End Pass-Ins still really struggling a month later!

But it’s not all good news at this level if you don’t get the price right. A month ago we reported on ten auctions over $2.5 million. Two sold on the day and eight passed in. Since then only a further two have sold and both were below the pass-in price. Although the stat is on a small sample it says at this level 40% clearance rate after a month.

Friday March 30th: 2a Chelsea St Brighton with Sturt Hinton of Kay and Burton got away after an eternity on the market for an extremely healthy result of $3,600,000 (according to another agent).

Thursday March 29th: Expressions of Interest still working with Michael Armstrong moving 11 Moralla Road Kooyong – over $5million.

There has definitely been a resurgence in Bayside in the last few weeks at the top level and one new company that is giving the big boys a run for their money is Nick Johnstone of Nick Johnstone real estate – as you know we have a fair bit of time for him, as he actually gets off his back side and shows you homes, suggest alternatives, tells you asking prices (which a number of others for some stupid reason think should be a complete mystery) and follows you up. Good real estate at the Top End is not for rocket scientists – we know because we aren’t. Turning up with a sprinkling of facts and treating people with a certain level of decency is ¾ of the job. Anyway let’s look at Nic’s circa $3m sales this month alone in Brighton

• 1 Norwood – North facing land one back from the beach
• 20 Birdwood – James Home Rating of 714/1000
• 13 Halifax – ripper property see our James Home Rating 661/1000
• 19 St Ninians – heart of the Golden Mile see our James Home Rating 588/1000

And while on the subject of smaller boutique companies we have always liked the work of Paul Richards who sold 53 Barnard Kew for we believe over $6,000,000 earlier this month and we were amazed to see another company claiming the deal – anyway Bekdon Richards with Evan Lykourinos is a young company who also speaks reasonably accurately, gets out of bed early and pushes through some big deals quietly over the line.

And one for the big boys – Justin Long of Marshall White moved 8 Harvey St Malvern on Monday for we think over $4million – went through it late last year and thought it may take some time to shift – a credit to his persistence and if achieved anything over $4m in this market it would have been a good result for both parties.

Another one quietly gone in the Gascoigne (Kay and Burton) at circa $3m price level and the big one in Boroondara should emerge soon to give some small confidence at the Top of the Top End. Not trying to be tricky but we do respect privacy when asked.

Mortgagee Auction: 8 St Ninians Brighton, David Hart, Under the Hammer, $4,900,000, 3 bidders

Saturday 24th March: It is neck and neck for the strongest areas in the $3 million segment for March: so far Brighton has sold 7, Hawthorn, Kew and Canterbury also 7 and Toorak 6 for the month so far – daylight the rest.

• Brighton, 8 St Ninians, David Hart, $4,900,000, 3 bidders.
• East Melbourne, 125 Gipps St, the newly married Nathan Waterson should pay for the wedding with a private sale at slightly below $4,000,000. A great terrace home and a good result, but below initial ask and took a fair while for the vendors to come into line. Next door’s ask now seems even more courageous than when I first heard it. But I have had the taste of humble pie once or twice this month so will wait and see.
• Kew, 5 Tregarron Avenue, Sam Wilkinson – Expressions of Interest in the mid $3 millions. Now with Sam who has deservedly a good reputation at this level on these homes. Is he not the spitting image of young Brains on Thunderbirds!
• Hawthorn East a quiet one away for Nicholas Franzmann and hopalong Walter Dodich in the over $3m category. New home build – good result in the end.
• McKinnon, 41 Rose St – yep its not a misprint – McKinnon – Adam Joske and Phillip Kingston under the hammer at $70,000 short of $3,000,000. 3 bidders and a crowd of over 200.

Top  Pass Ins

• Brighton, 11 Alverna Grove,  passed in, $3,000,000, no bidders
  A big crowd turned out to have a look at this impressive 7 year old home overlooking parkland at the end of a dead end street….(See more in Auction Reports)
• Balwyn, 26 Metung, passed in, $3,000,000

The New Way to do Business at the Top End - An Abercrombys Private Auction - 11 Bates St Malvern East selling over $6 million – Jeff Gole and Tim Derham

Thursday 22nd March: The Abercromby Private Auction – possibly the new Expressions of Interest. Private Auctions are where a home is advertised usually for a mid week auction and only those who register interest are allowed to attend.

11 Bates St Malvern East was a great example of how it works. A number of pre arranged private inspections are organised during the course of an advertised auction campaign. A few days before the Private Auction (Thursday), all potential buyers register interest and are required to indicate a starting bid. In this case the written starting bid was $5.9 million (I’m not sure what that proves, but anyway).

They are by invitation only (and I saw some people being  turned away at the door). At 11 Bates three parties turned up. Two bid – well I think it was two – the spiel was given by Tim Derham and he declared that there were two pre recorded bids. One bidder asked to see them and she was duly shown the written bids. What surprised me was that she accepted them without asking Tim to point out who the actual written bid was from. But we move on. Anyway this feisty lady tried in all manner of ways to lower the bids (and good on her) until a $50,000 bid was accepted after Tim had cheekily asked for a $200,000 rise (well he tried hey!). The property was eventually passed in to the lady. A deal was done behind closed doors over the magic $6 million mark, post auction. Surprisingly despite the written bid, no-one else bid, including the writer of the bid. Mmmm!

Digressing slightly, this was in our opinion about the right money for this very rare and truly great home, given we figured it was worth $3m for the land and $3m for the home and the rest was going to be emotion. Read our James Home Rating if you wish.

But back to the Private Auction. Not only is it a civil way to conduct proceedings at the Top End but it also probably circumvents the new cooling off period laws – if an auction by invitation only still constitutes a public auction. That’s one for the legal boys.

This is the third of its type we’ve been to over $3m in recent times and all have worked (for the seller). As a buyer the normal rules apply as at a public auction – do your homework on value, have representation to protect your privacy and manage the bidding; and of course have a suitable post auction strategy to prevent the irresistible force of “Slapper” in full voice running you up the flag pole above fair and reasonable.

The more we see the Abercromby guys in action, the more impressed we are with how they do business at the Top End. Yes Tim Derham can hit you between the eyes when you least expect it and Jock can chew your ear off on why a home is worth such and such without necessarily dropping a fact into the conversation (he gets some very big deals over the line); but when you look at their line-up, which includes Rob Vickers Willis and Andrew Harlock, this Top End boutique agency is truly the hired gunslingers (with some morality) who are knocking the Top End around a bit right now. No we don’t get anything from them, but we at James like the way they are doing business right now with the Private Auctions (it’s innovative and its working) – has a relative degree of transparency about it (although you do need pre auction preparation and post auction pass-in skills if you are to give as good as you get – they are working for the vendor not you the buyer) and they are actually pleasant guys (not working for you but pleasant). Jeff Gole is a solid, ethical and experienced addition to the Abercromby family. Liking your work right now boys.

35 Stonnington Off Market - Over $6m

Off Market: 35 Stonnington Place Toorak also Jeff Gole and Tim Derham (they’ve had a good week these old blokes). Went through this off market home about a month ago. Pretty well the Toorak new build formula – big, thoughts of pretension, all the features but lacked a little soul when you lined it up against the calibre of 11 Bates St above. Was around the $6m mark the right money? I feel so and that represents a 25% rise on its last buy price during the GFC. Yes we may be in a market that may fall some more but we also may be in a market that has corrected and will begin to rise again. If you know for sure where we are in the cycle can you let us know please – we agents out here are waiting for that sign from God!

Tuesday 20th March: Another half dozen buys at the $3m+ level this week, with Bayside showing the most consistent activity

• 55 Sussex St Brighton (Jonathan Dixon) finally gets way after beginning its sale campaign with another agent in the stratosphere and selling at what now deemed to be market value.
• 27 Chelsea St (Danielle Martin of Barleys) organises the ink after a long but ultimately successful campaign on a solid block with a home that needed some work.
• 29 Seymour Avenue (Ian Jackson) forever the consummate professional brings two parties together, no not at the initial courageous $5m+ ask; but at the still pretty impressive mid $4 million mark. With land being bought in the early $2m’s a few years ago; holding costs and a pretty solid build ( lift, basement and other features) the buy, build and sell quick is not proving to be the absolute goldmine it once was – but nobody’s saying this was not an acceptable result – just tight.

Monday 19th March: Reprinted from The Weekly Review – “The market can be so fickle at the top end”

So you’ve heard there’s a bit of life at the Top of the Top End – that is the $3 million price bracket. Is it true? Well, yes and no.

After taking forever to get out of the blocks in 2012, the starting gun finally seems to have fired for the $3 million plus market. But the big question in this Olympic year is whether this is a false start or the beginning of some sustained running.

The thing is, that at this price level markets are very fickle and rise and fall quite dramatically within short periods of time. Its sub markets, such as land only or trophy homes or new builds, go up and down with even more elasticity, as demand for these is far more variable than for say a median priced inner suburban home.

Even so, the Top End can have some oomph even while operating a lower price level. It’s a bit like a footy team that is outside the top eight and then gets it act together to make a run at the eight, even if it may not be operating at the levels of the top four.

So where are we now in Mid March 2012 in the Bayside and Inner East Market above $3million?

The current market does have some oomph but it is nothing like the halcyon high turnover days of 2007 and 2010. While there is some good stock on offer, there is also plenty of rubbish. Also worth remembering is that we saw signs of life like this at around the same time in 2011, only to then see momentum die away after Easter. The market did come up for some air in September but then it sank again for the rest of 2011 (except for one or two notable exceptions).

Last year was a classic stalemate market – with many vendors barking orders down to their agents and many buyers looking up at the prize, offering a limp handshake and then walking away unsatisfied when it wasn’t taken up.

So far this year things seem a bit more lively. When pushed some buyers are putting in a second effort, helping to push some prices up. Sellers seem more prepared to meet the market rather than sticking stubbornly to their asking prices as they did last year. However, this does not add up to uniformly increasing prices. In fact a number of homes have transacted at lower prices than the previous peaks or when they last sold.

Let’s get specific

What has been selling?

• Hawthorn East, 2 Buley St, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), Sold after auction above $3,700,000, 2 bidders:
• Sandringham, 47-49 Victoria St (Julian Augustini) – Big parcel of land, on the market since late last year and sold in the mid $3 millions – a solid result.
• Camberwell, 19 Waterloo, (Rob Vickers-Willis, Greg Toogood) Bought under the hammer in front of a crowd of 80 people. Bidding opened at $2,700,000. On market at $3 million. 4 Bidders

What has been selling, but at lower than previous levels?

• Hawthorn, 33 Kooyongkoot Road (Tim Picken and Scott Patterson) – A huge block (2800sqm) in THE street on the crest of Scotch Hill. Sold for around the quote price of $8 million, lower than it sold for in the 2007 peak. This was a good sale just at lower levels.
• Malvern, 9 Woodmason St, (Jeremy Fox), Sold after auction, above $3,530,000, with 3 bidders. This was only bought a few years ago and we believe at a higher price. This was a good sale just at lower levels.
• Brighton, 47 Champion St (Ian Jackson) – Had been on the market (with another agent) for an eternity, considering its quality, with an asking price initially over $3.5m – Bought mid week for we believe just under $3m. This was a good sale just at lower levels.

What has not sold at auction?

• East Melbourne, 125 Gipps St – passed-in $3,850,000
• Williamstown, 27 The Strand – passed-in $3,000,000
• Toorak, 24 Heyington – passed-in $2,900,000

And there are plenty more of these out there, as you’ll notice if you do a search on homes over $2.5 million on any real estate portal. Last time we did that, up came 250 homes, which should tell you that despite a dozen or so buys/sells in the last week there are still many “wannabe” sellers out there who may not have got their pricing correct.

19 Waterloo Camberwell hits $3,045,000 in a Rob Vickers-Willis mid week auction

Thursday March 8th – Camberwell, 19 Waterloo, (Rob Vickers-Willis, Greg Toogood) Bought under the hammer in front of a crowd of 80 people. Bidding opened at $2,700,000. On market at $3,000,000. 4 Bidders (Architect Adam Auction Report)

James Home Rating 810/1000: 19 Waterloo is a very good property, and one that which should defy any  negative market conditions  as  it is a unique offering . We see this type of property only about six times a year and,  if vendor expectations are reasonable and the agent manages the campaign well, then a strong result generally comes about….. (see James Home Rating for full details)

Wednesday March 7th – Hawthorn, 33 Kooyongkoot Road (Tim Picken and Scott Patterson) – the big one on Scotch Hill – 2800sqm in THE street on the crest of the hill was bought today for we believe around the quote price of $8,000,000. This shows their is a market for sensibly priced Top End homes – meaning it had a lower quote than what it was last bought for in the 2007 peak. James Home Rating 752/1000 – see rating for full details.

64 Sutherland Road Armadale – (Jock Langley) – Inner city larger terrace home was bought in a private negotiation and 16 Monomeath Avenue Canterbury (Doug McLauchlan) which passed in on Saturday for $4,700,000 was cleaned up in post auction negotiations for an undisclosed amount – the quote was $5,000,000 plus.

Biggest Sale of 2012 so far 33 Kooyongkoot

Tuesday March 6th – Kay and Burton Trifecta

• Toorak, 46 Canberra Road, Michael Armstrong and Ross Savas – bought before auction around $4 million.
• Camberwell, 69 Broadway, Michael Armstrong and Ross Savas – was quoted between $6,000,000 and $7,000,000 and had been on the market since last year with another agent and we believe was sold in the last day or two for an undisclosed amount.
• Portsea, 3831 Point Nepean Road – Liz Jensen, Kay and Burton, $3,200,000 – bought before auction.

Hawthorn East, 2 Buley, Jason Scillio, Bought After, Over $3,700,000. 2 bidders

March 3rd: We had the first signs of life in the Inner East this weekend and it now seems the Bayside Top End may be dragging itself out of its Summer slumber. After last week’s Sandringham Top End action, we saw sales this week at:

• Brighton, 192 Church St (Ian Jackson) – On market for some time at over $4m – Bought mid week just shy of that
• Brighton, 47 Champion St (Ian Jackson) – On market (with another agent) for an eternity, considering its quality, with an asking initially over $3.5m – Bought mid week for just under $3m.

Biggest Auctions:

• Hawthorn East, 2 Buley St, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), after auction above $3,700,000, 2 bidders: Jason Scillio was our master of ceremonies here and he led the way strongly and professionally, politely refusing low increment bids and keeping the auction moving along smoothly and quickly…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Malvern, 9 Woodmason St, Jeremy Fox (RT Edgar), after auction, above $3,530,000, 3 bidders: Interested to see how this recently on the market and sold quality home goes at this indoor auction in front of crowd of around 40…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Toorak, 33 Evans Court, Gowan Stubbings, After Auction, around $3,400,000, 1 bidder: This beautifully presented property attracted a sizeable crowd on a gloomy day. An opening bid from the crowd of $3,260,000 was trumped by auctioneer Gowan Stubbings ..(see more in Auction Reports)
• Brighton, 3 Tennyson St, Leigh Hallamore (Buxton), under the hammer, $3,270,000, 3 bidders: Indoor auctions aren’t always that exciting, but this bucked the trend and was fast paced, entertaining and high energy all rolled in to one…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Brighton, 19 St Ninians Rd, Nick Johnstone (Nick Johnstone), after auction, $3,150,000, 1 bidder: The loud chatter of the crowd, with umbrellas in hand, who stood in a series of small huddles, made the weather seem much less dreary….(see more in Auction Reports)
• Fitzroy, 112 McKean St with Shayne Mooney of Nelson Alexander – just over $3million

Biggest Pass-Ins:

• Canterbury, 16 Monomeath Ave, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White), $4,700,000, no bidders: Outside, and under a substantial porch, a crowd of 80 gathered. Doug McLauchlan opened with a vendor bid of $4,500,000, adding another at $4,600,000…(see more in Auction Reports)
• Albert Park, 79 Beaconsfield Parade, Geoff Cayzer, $3,300,000
• Elwood, 8 Dickens St, Marshall Rushford (Hocking Stuart), $2,950,000,  2 bidders: This great old dame attracted a lot of curious bystanders – even (I was told) a former owner of this amazing old mansion, who had come along to see just how much it was worth in today’s market…..(see more in Auction Reports

However, there is still a lot of property at this price level on the market in Bayside and the Inner East that is simply sitting there doing nothing.

Overall the $3M+ market is seen by optimists as treading water and by realists as still edging backwards.

As we come to the end of February most of the work we are involved in at this price level is off market or pre market – meaning not advertised or not yet advertised (and may not be). However two really good properties, currently beginning public selling campaigns (we have been through and rated), should provide a very good indication of where the market is at to the general public are:

• Hawthorn – 29 Kooyongkoot Road – asking $6m plus with Michael Armstrong of Kay and Burton. James Home Rating 842/1000
• Malvern East – 11 Bates Street – asking $6m plus with Jeff Gole and Tim Derham of Abercromby’s. James Home Rating 838/1000

If you have any interest in these properties we have far more detailed notes and pricing which is not up on our public Ratings site.

Click on picture go to rating

Click on picture go to rating

February 25th the day everything big passed-in

2 bidders to $3,900,000 at 2 Laurel Court Hawthorn East - but that still wasn’t enough!

Despite the rest of the market having some bounce it was very flat at the Top End with the Top 8 Sales all passing-in

• Hawthorn East – 2 Laurel Court – passed-in $3,900,000
• East Melbourne – 125 Gipps St – passed-in $3,850,000
• Williamstown – 27 The Strand – passed-in $3,000,000
• Toorak – 24 Heyington – passed-in $2,900,000
• Hawthorn – 54 Glen – passed-in $2,800,000
• Canterbury – 29 Hopetoun – passed-in $2,650,000
• Camberwell – 123 Wattle Valley – passed-in $2,650,000
• Malvern – 119 Stanhope – passed-in $2,600,000

A few biggies that were cleaned up this week (but at lower prices than initially offered):

• 3 Park St Brighton (Jason Gill) – Wrapped up this week at just under $3m after being on the market for a fair while.
• 47-49 Victoria St Sandringham (Julian Augustini) – Big parcel of land, on the market since late last year and sold in the mid $3ms.
• 324 Beaconsfield Parade St Kilda West (Shane Siemers) – Went to auction last year at over $5m and sold, we believe, in the sub $4m range this week.
• 51 Isabella Grove Hawthorn (Jeremy Fox) – been on the market a long time and sold at a second campaign for over $5,500,000. Initial ask was over $6m.

All smiles are David Wood and Michael Coen who get 2012's first $3m+ under the hammer property away. Albert Park, 148 Beaconsfield Parade and a strong 4 bidders

2011 was a year of falling prices with the exceptions of the months of May, September and December. Yes, we finished the year off OK – but it was more a case or arresting the fall rather than any lighting of price rockets.

Last year we saw large drops in market values of homes that started too high on price, with owners who then had to sell. This was particularly the case with properties that were of inferior quality and also those in poor positions. In many cases these drops were 20% and more off the Anzac Day 2010 high. A lot of that fall in value happened in the last quarter of 2011.

Demand being OK can be further supported by our Stale and Stalemate results.

As we went into Christmas we had four key $2m to $3m negotiations in Stalemate in that the Vendor was fixed at X and our buyer was fixed at Y. It was a stalemate as opposed to a momentum negotiation because the vendor felt no compulsion to lower their price and our buyer had no proof as to why they had to increase their bid.

10 weeks later, the results on those negotiations are:

1. Burke Road Malvern – Marshall White’s Maddie Kennedy got a surprising near $3m from another buyer. This was a really good home but in a difficult location and the auction only produced a vendor bid of $2.4m
2. Victoria St Brighton – Barb Gregory of Marshall White Brighton. Another buyer met the reserve of $3.5m. Not surprising – this was a good home and a fair price.
3. Moffat Brighton – Bought after some argy-bargy with Chris Bevan of JP Dixon. This was a brilliant design and build and had been on the market for over a year.
4. Camberwell -still in a stalemate negotiation and with other blocks nearby also unsold. It’s hard to tell when or even if something may happen on this.

Early 2012 Private Sales

• Brighton East, 181 Were St – Kate Strickland – Over $3m – Cutting edge home – Big price for East Brighton
• Brighton, 10 Victoria – Barb Gregory – Over $3.5m – Modern 7 yo family home near the water
• Brighton, 17 Huntingfield – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin – Over $3.3m – Big family home
• Brighton 2 Collins Brighton– Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin – Over $3m – Townhouse, one of a pair
• Brighton 26 Moffat Brighton – Chris Bevan – Cutting edge family home
• Balwyn, 15 Boston – Mark Rathgeber – $3,300,000 – Big family home
• Hawthorn, 58 Kooyongkoot – Scott Patterson – Over $3m – Family home
• Prahran, 22 Murray – Tim Wilson – Over $3m – Big land
• Kew, 65 Stevenson – Paul Richards – Bekdon Richards – $3,000,000 – Big period home

Roll Up, Roll Up and see if today is a horror movie or not? 40 Fordham Camberwell: David Gillham: Bought After $1,650,000+. 1 bidder

Yes it was a bit of a dog of a day for the market this weekend, but it was not an absolute shocker.  And really, what else could you have expected!

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for $M+ was 52% on the 25 auctions we attended. We have seen worse.

The Weekly Review Bidderman, our demand indicator, was down at just 0.8 bidders per auction. The last time we saw that kind of number was back in 2008 – but hey did you expect a plethora of volcano auctions? Actually, there was not one volcano (4+ bidders) auction in the 25 we covered on Saturday.

We all knew buyers were not going to brave this weekend and who can blame them? This was confirmed by the fact that only 3 of the 25 auctions we covered sold under the hammer – that’s 12% or 1 in 8. Which again re-emphasises that if you do feel inclined to buy a home right now, you need to understand the processes and strategies involved in buying a home outside the auction hammer process.

The Market This Weekend

Who are the unluckiest sellers this year? I think we would all agree those who had their home on the market at 10.30 this Saturday morning. This weekend was always going to be a time of concern for the market, no matter which way you mentally packaged Friday’s stock market news.

And yes, there was some blood on the Colosseum floor. But before you move into a catatonic state about the health (or lack thereof) of Melbourne’s $M+ home market, let’s put this weekend into context.

Firstly, even without the doom and gloom we would have been most surprised to see a strong clearance rate this weekend. The choice of homes on offer was average at best, while good stock is hard to find.

Secondly, buyers, and there do seem to be a few around if you go by last week’s results, are now beginning to see some early Spring stock and some of that is more appealing than what was on offer this weekend.

Thirdly, after every ‘catastrophe’ there is a knee-jerk reaction where people, including buyers, simply find the air a little harder to breathe and things a little harder to do – especially make decisions and take even calculated sensible risks. But we do seem to all get back on the horse at some stage.

Fourthly, as we said last week, right now is pretty much a nothing market – and again this weekend, nothing much happened. But nothing much has happened for several months.

So we’re not apologising or talking it up or down – we’re just saying this weekend’s market was always going to be tough after yesterday’s financial news – and tough it was.

What will next week bring and the week after – who knows?

One thing we don’t know (for sure) is anything involving a short term time line. We can’t say if we are in for a GFC Mark II, something worse than a GFC or no real damage at all in the next six months.

On the flipside, yes it’s true that long term we have good job prospects, solid immigration and a healthy economy etc BUT……

….BUT, as buyers we all want to buy well and at the best time. We would have preferred to have bought a home at November 2008 prices instead of November 2007 prices or July 2011 prices instead of July 2010 prices. However taking that argument down another line, as buyers we would have preferred to buy homes in 2008 at market price rather than 2009 or 2010 at market price.

And you could feel that price was top of mind with almost every bidder or non-bidder this weekend. Is this the right time to buy? Can we get it cheaper? How cheap can we get it?

This almost overpowering mindfog was evident at almost all auctions this weekend and explains why the hammer rate was so poor, at 1 in 8.

So is it OK to buy now? Is this a window of opportunity or the start of the slippery slope?

It’s human nature as buyers to be wanting to get a great deal at any time. We as buyers want to make the best decisions on our needs and maximise our individual long-term emotional and financial outcomes for our family – just as sellers do. But there is wanting and there is making it happen.

Going forward, what will happen is that:

1. Some buyers will panic - We are all a bit circumspect and nervous, but if we become a panicked buyer we are a danger to our family.  The best way to avoid panic is to be clear on what it is that you, as the breadwinner or decision maker, are trying to achieve. What do you want for your family? A home with 4 bedrooms, a good backyard near schools and with a good floorplan in Boroondara or Bayside. Good – well stick to it. The condition of the Greek economy shouldn’t make you now think you want a 2 bedroom home in Epping with no backyard because that is somehow less risky than Hampton or Glen Iris.
2. Some buyers will not learn from history – Think what happened during and post the GFC, during the 90s drop, and during the 70s –  if you are as old as me. If you understand what is happening now you may be able to take advantage of it – even in little ways. It all adds up.
3. Some buyers will act – You can only take advantage of an opportunity if you act. Those that appear to be the wisest of men who pass on everything in life are not that. You can’t look after your family on inaction. Your spouse can’t sleep in your concern and your kids can’t play in your risk avoidance strategies.

Good things to think about when you realise you still need to do something:

Take your time as most sensible buyers have this year. If you see something you like then look at its characteristics: are they what you want and are they any good? If not move on – prices seem unlikely to be going north in a hurry.

Elevate your risk taking in negotiations and go harder on price. Especially if it’s been passed-in for longer than a few days. Providing you don’t have to have it at any cost, push a little harder. It’s not immoral to try for a good deal.

Aim higher – especially if you are above $2m. If you can stomach a bit more debt, then now may be the perfect time to look for something a bit better than what you could have afforded last year.

Marry a doctor or a somebody with equally good cash-flow because over the next few months some bargains may appear and cash flow kings will be able to take advantage of the debt bunnies.

We admit we have a complete bias towards property, so maybe our thoughts are not quite balanced. But maybe that’s why we feel some comfort right now. If the kitchen in stocks is a bit too hot maybe nervous investors could come over and try the relatively stable inner Melbourne housing market. Sure, it’s a bit rough around the edges, but it is solid inside.

The rest of this year is an opportunity for us all – and for some that opportunity will be a time for action, for others a time for reflection and for a few a time for panic.

Each of us is different. Good luck

$3M+ Market
We’ve had a few comments that we haven’t put up a $3M+ market report since May. That’s  been for a good reason – it would have been an almost blank sheet. However there have been some sputters of life from deep within and this could be a sign that the top-end engine is starting to turnover again. From our own company’s point of view we are now involved in 3 dealings after having been bereft of activity for most of winter at this level. Other recent notable sales at this level are:

• A sale in Boroondara this last month at just over $6M – completely off market
• 24 Boxshall St, Brighton (Sam Paynter of Hodges), which has been on the market for a long time and has finally changed hands just under $3M
• 4 Sussex St, Brighton (Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin) sold for a hard to believe $3,775,000. We attended that auction and the result was … well brilliant.
• and while down in Bayside, 2 Tennyson St, Brighton with Jonathan Dixon, after passing in at auction a month or so ago, has just sold for around that pass-in figure and well over $3,000,000
• 12a Harrison Crescent, Hawthorn, which had a rating too low to put up on our site, was sold by Sam Wilkinson of Kay and Burton for over $3,000,000
• Along with 3 Irymple Ave, Glen Iris (Iain Carmichael); 5 Story St, Parkville (Tom Roberts) and 80 South Road, Brighton (Barb Gregory) in the last week, the Top End over $3M is trying to work its way back into some form.

With a couple of big homes due to go to auction next weekend – amongst them 49 Sackville St Kew (James Tostevin); 7 Foote St Brighton (Phillip French of RT Edgar) and 83 Walsh St South Yarra (Peter Bennison and Justin Long) – we will begin to see if there is some air at the higher altitudes as we limp into the footy finals, traditionally a key indicator for activity in the early and late Spring markets at the $3M+ level.

Not everybody was stressed about life. 8 Blackfriars Toorak: Justin Long: Passed In $3,000,000. 0 bidders

Biggest Sale: 80 South Road Brighton: 1 bidder: Bought Afterwards $3,000,000.
On the market just a couple of years ago, this classic, well built modern home was back on the block for auction today. The main road would be an issue but other than that, it is hard to fault. They wanted and got a big ticket last time, and they are wanting towards $3m again. So I’m wondering firstly if it will sell and secondly if there will have been any appreciable price movement since last time. Jack Bongiorno is our master of ceremonies auctioning for the newly created Brighton MW team with Barb Gregory and Kate Strickland. Hebegins in front of a solid crowd of almost 90 and all packed into the front yard. Proceedings are started with a $2,700,000 vendor bid and bidder one joins in at $2,750,000. Half-time break comes and goes and there is no further bidding and so it’s passed in. $3,000,000 Bought after – good result. Just shy of a 10% increase in 2 years. (Mal James)

• 1/23 Washington St, Toorak: Hugh Hardy of Benmac: 2 bidders: Bought for $2,870,000
• 18 Knutsford, Balwyn: Richard Earle; 0 bidders: Bought After $2,730,000

Biggest Pass In: 8 Blackfriars Close, Toorak: Justin Long of Marshall White: Passed in $3,000,000: 0 bidders
Auctioneer Justin Long had a commanding presence as he addressed the group of 45 in attendance.  In his preamble, Mr Long spoke passionately, describing it as a “wonderful, wonderful property” and explained its history.  Mr Long opened with a vendor bid of $3,000,000 and requested $50,000 rises.  Despite his best efforts to entice bidding, all those in attendance stood as spectators and the property was passed in at $3,000,000. (Kate Agnoleto)

Bidderbuzz Auction: 35 Nelson Road, Camberwell: Michael Hingston of Jellis Craig: Bought $1,665,000: 3 bidders.
This was always going to be an interesting auction, and I was looking forward to it. The property is quite a good one – north facing rear, on good land size within close proximity to Camberwell Junction. Fortunately the rained stayed away and Michael Hingston (backed up by Steven Abbott) did a good job directing traffic in front of around 70 people – and you could sense there were a buzz here. Opening on a vendor bid of $1,350,000 it did not take too long for the crowd to get involved and two bidders fought things out in $10,000 increments to see the property on the market at $1,460,000 – a good reserve I thought. Bidder 3 entered the fray and all of sudden this auction was off and running. At $1,600,000 the auction seemed like it was coming to end yet two bidders (one on the phone, that often looked out of the running a number of times and in the end finally ran out of patience and/or money – how often do we see that?) went tit-for-tat and the auction finished at $1,665,000. Good result for the vendor here and a professionally run campaign by Michael Hingston. (Adam Woledge)

Buyer Masterclass: What to look for to see if you are going to have choice. Also reprinted  in Melbourne’s Million Dollar magazine The Weekly Review.

We only buy (good) homes

Yes they still sell homes at $3,000,000. 80 South Road Brighton: Jack Bongiorno, Maddie Kennedy and Barb Gregory: Bought After $3,000,000. 1 bidder

In the first of 2 part major report this week on The Big Spring Predictions we cover the Early Spring Market

Home market predictions are like footy predictions in many ways – a bit of fun, not to be taken too seriously and to be treated on the basis of past results.

Sometimes we agents get it right and sometimes we don’t. So why do we do it? We do it for the same reasons that footy fills up just as many pages at the end of the week as it does at the start – because buyers, sellers and market watchers like to read our opinions and insights and they do so in just as great a numbers as those who watch a blockbuster footy game every auction Saturday.

With Spring only a short time away, the musings, the theories and the rumours are surfacing again. Hence we called all the big guns into a Roman Toga type gathering to ask them what will happen in both the early and late Spring markets in the run up till Santa comes.

“Love is in the Air and there is no home more beautiful than one being auctioned on the perfect sun-drenched Spring day with the fence painted, the light streaming in and the garden looking stunning” says Marshall White’s Justin Long – with some poetry and just a little bias.

Historically though, over the last decades Melbourne buyers and sellers have agreed with this statement.  John Clarkson of Hocking Stuart says the market swells by as much as 200% even 300% in terms of activity in Spring months when compared to the winter ones.

However, while every agent assumes the supply of stock is sure to increase on what we have now, there is also a thinking that this increase will be less this year than what we’ve seen on average over the past 10 years. There is universal agreement at the moment that we will not see stock levels approaching what we saw last year. 2010 was a big year at the beginning, in the middle and at the end in terms of activity. So far 2011 has not been – and it will not be.

Why is Spring looking to have new stock shortages? According to Kay and Burton director Ross Savas, it’s because vendors are perceiving that the market is under pressure, so they are holding off placing their homes on the market till conditions improve.

Benmac’s Iain Carmichael agrees: “Unlike last year there are few opportunistic sellers thinking, ‘Wow, our home is now worth a mint – let’s go!’. So the only driving forces are the traditional sellers such as upscalers, downsizers, and job relocators.”

Is this just false spin to get sellers to act? We don’t think so. Richard Winneke of Jellis Craig for instance reports that most agents are admitting to a 25% volume reduction of high end stock being transacted between this year and last. Balwyn and Kew are down around 20% in overall transactions (not just the high end).

In Bayside Jason Gill paints a similar picture of diminishing turnover but uses a different measurement: “In Brighton in July 2009, 2010 and 2011 we have seen stock on the market go from to 92 to 125 to 150 meaning older overpriced stock is simply not selling.”  What this means, he adds, “is that the stock that comes on in Spring will need to be of good quality and be priced correctly, rather than more of the same, if it is to excite the market.”

In our opinion, with the type of market contraction (turnover more so than price) we have had in 2011 we are going to need some excitement to kick start the market in the way that it took the Chinese community in 2009 to lead us from the GFC.

Sellers want prices and while buyers do as well, they also want good quality at the upper end levels. More of the same will only compound the problems of this market for both buyers and sellers.

For vendors who are prepared to swim against the tide, there could be rewards, says Steve Burke of Jellis Craig says, and sure we know he’s biased but he’s right on this occasion. “Forget about when the roses bloom in the garden, it is all about the demand and supply equation. As we are currently in a market place of perceived negative conditions I believe that there will be a real shortage of stock at the start of Spring. This will definitely favor the brave vendors who will be able to capture a market place where there is little competition.”

Next we look at Stales, Price and The Late Spring Market.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Plus property magazine

The big talk on the property market is auction clearance rates: the fact they are well below last year (true) and that they are perhaps even lower than what agents are claiming (maybe).

Last year auction clearance rates across Melbourne were regularly in the 70s percentage-wise. This year they are in the 50s – so it is fair to conclude that this year fewer buyers and sellers agree on price and therefore the market is regarded as weaker than 2010.

But while some journalists and publications are arguing that the ‘true’ clearance rate may in fact be lower because agents do not report every unsold auction, some agents  are arguing that the emphasis on a Melbourne-wide clearance rate is also misleading.

Jack Bongiorno from Marshall White, for instance, argues that while papers like The Age are reporting clearance rates in the 50s, his company has seen clearance rates in the 70s throughout May and June . Andrew James of Hocking Stuart Armadale agrees, saying his office is also seeing clearance rates in the 70s all year.

So The Age is saying one thing and agents another. Well there’s nothing new there.

Who is right and who is wrong – and does it really matter?

Well,  they are both right. And as for whether it really matters, the answer is yes – and no. Is that a splinter I can feel in my bottom from sitting on the fence? Well no, in fact this goes to the crux of what clearance rates can and cannot tell buyers.

According to Andrew McCann of BenMac, clearance rates measure across a very broad number of suburbs, price bands and demographics. “The reality is,” he says, “that some parts of the market will always perform better than others so it is not unrealistic to think that while some areas are soft, others are strong. A good case in point is that our firm sold 11 from 12 Auctions last weekend, while the market returned 56%.”

Scott Patterson of Kay and Burton supports this: “The clearance rate in The Age of 59% is a general rate for the whole of Melbourne and does not reflect what is going on in certain areas.”  Hawthorn for instance has had a clearance rate of 80% for the year so far, which seems a different picture from the outskirts of Melbourne.”

This makes it important for buyers to take Melbourne-wide clearance rates with a grain of salt.

Brad Pearce of Miles in Ivanhoe says that as a buyer you need to be area-specific on clearance rates to ensure you are in line with your market. “Buyers can become too confident with the lower Melbourne wide clearance rates and miss opportunities to buy in their area, where in fact properties are still selling well.”

Hawthorn and Kew, for instance, are currently shining with clearance rates in the 70s and 80s, according to Richard Winneke of Jellis Craig. But next door, Camberwell, Canterbury and Balwyn North have had clearance rates in the 50s so far this year, he points out.

Clearance Rates are wonderful things for analysts and journalists, says Steve Abbott of Jellis Craig, “but they are only part of the story for buyers and sellers.” Kay & Burton’s Michael Gibson reminds us too that clearance rates only represent a few hours within the selling week.

And according to BenMac’s Iain Carmichael: “Some weeks we have shockers and the next it’s a dream, so clearance rates are area specific, very cyclical and not always predictable.”

As a buyer, along with clearance rates, you also need to look at stats on areas, on specific agencies, on different types of homes, price ranges, stock level indicators, Bidderman (number of bidders per auction) and a variety of other measures.

Indeed, while $M+ Melbourne may be down on turnover this year, of the last 10 homes we as buyer agents went after in the last two weeks of May, all were sold quickly (and not all to us). So to our mind,  the late May 2011 “good home” index (describing the kinds of home we go after) had a clearance rate of 100%

The buyer message in terms of Melbourne-wide clearance rates is to understand what they represent and to not limit your research to the changing weekly auction headline number when determining your individual buying strategy.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus Magazine

ALBERT PARK, 94 Mills St: Jack's back! John Bongiorno (Marshall White), passed in $2,420,000, bought after for an undisclosed amount.

Elwood 20A Docker – Justin Follett - Sold before Auction – in fact in week one of the campaign. Quote $2,000,000 plus – bought for $2,500,000- interstate buyer.

Elwood 16 Wave – Chisholm and Gamon and Pride Real Estate. On the market since Christmas and sold this week. Good home, just had to get the price right. Actually even when its sold they still can’t get the price right with one agent claiming in writing it was bought for $2,150,000 and the other in writing it was bought for $2,300,000. Mmmmmm may be there were two buyers!

St Kilda East – 7 Godfrey – David Seeber of Buxton – Mal went through that looking at it as an investment home. Sold last year in May for just over $900,000. Didn’t rate well at all  – no parking, south facing rear, below par floor plan. Today it was bought at auction for just under a $1,050,000. Who says in property you need to have wisdom – give me luck any day over wisdom – and to be fair, give me good agent work as well on the resale.

Just because we’re in a buyers market, with some great opportunities to buy good properties well, don’t think that means you have the upper hand when it comes to bidding at auction.

Many first time buyers think an auction is a matter of turning up and “winging” it. But when you are bidding on a home, you are not just competing against other buyers. You are also bidding against the agent, whose job and expertise is to maximise the selling price for his client. You will often be up against a collective brains trust of three or four and the agents will probably know who you are, what you have already bid on and what you’re likely to do at the auction.

And lately we have been seeing all too many examples where buyers are making it especially easy for skilled agents to do their job.

Take this scenario we witnessed a couple of weekends ago, which highlighted what a skilled agent can do even in a buyers market when presented with an inexperienced and overenthusiastic buyer.

The house was a lovely little single-fronted at 48 Emo Road, Malvern East, in one of my favourite family and investment areas, the Ardrie Park precinct. Middle of the road quality, plenty of space inside and outside and good flow. Good feel.

The agent  was Peter Bennison of Marshall White, is a seasoned operator who showed his stripes and his skills to perfection on this particular day.

The house had been quoted at a very reasonable $890,000 to $950,000, so even Peter was a little shocked when a strong and emotional opening bid came in at $950,000. The rest of the 100-strong crowd seemed stunned into silence as Peter tried, with no avail, to elicit further rises of $10,000.

Repairing inside for a strategic half-time break to consult with the no doubt ecstatic vendor, Peter returned to tell the crowd that the property would be passed in to the highest bidder if there were no further bids. After a pause, a second bidder piped up with an extra $10,000. Back like a shot, eagerness written all over his face, the original bidder responded with a crowd-hushing $1,000,000.

No one else was prepared to go any higher than that one, so the bidder was taken inside to negotiate a final price with the vendor. A few minutes later a final result of $1,150,000 was declared.

How did that happen? Why didn’t the bidder ask outside whether the property was “on the market” (over the vendor’s reserve price)? If he had, the final negotiation would have happened out there on the pavement instead of inside. Would the price have gotten up to $1,150,000 anyway – who knows? At least it would have happened openly and transparently, which is what auctions are good for. But the bidder had made his enthusiasm so completely clear to the agent that the agent was able to play him like a violin.

I don’t want to be critical of the bidder. There are worse “sins” in home-buying than paying more than you need to for a good house. But this scenario does point to some things to keep in mind if you are bidding on a property yourself.

1) As a bidder, by all means look strong to ward off other nervous buyers. But it doesn’t help to look emotional – an experienced agent will pick up on that and it will cost you money

2) In this market you have to test every step of the way. Ask questions. There was nothing wrong with the opening bid but the winning bidder’s second bid should have been presented in a very different way. The post auction problems snowballed from this one decision.

3) In this market, when your bid is well above the quote already, and when there is no proven competition, why rush up the pole? If you have to pay more at least let it take a few hours of testing.

4) Considering getting professional help.

The result may have been no different if a professional was managing the buying side. But I think a number of safety procedures could have been implemented prior to agreeing to that amount.

It’s a great market to buy in but you still need to be careful.

Mal

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus Magazine

PRAHRAN, 80 Williams Rd: A true sign of a wet auction day - a pile of shoes at the front door! Andrew Macmillan (BenMac), passed in, $2,300,000, no bidders

Key Points:

What little action there is – is for the most part away from auctions (expected and traditional for this time of the year)

• Toorak 252 Walsh – Jeremy Fox – off market around $8,000,000
• Toorak 320A Walsh – Peter Kudelka – quiet sale just under $2,900,000
• Toorak Ross St  – Andrew Sahar also of Kay and Burton (maybe underrated, here is another strong result ) – over $5,000,000
• Armadale 47 Huntingtower  – solid result with Kevin O’Brien of Jellis Craig – see auction report below

BALWYN, 21 Kerry Pde: A smiling Hamish Tostevin (Marshall White) sells the property under the hammer, $1,670,000, 2 bidders and a big crowd of 80

Key Points:

• Canterbury 126 Mont Albert Road – Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar – bought for over $5,300,000
• Balwyn 1 Parkside Avenue - Alastair Craig of Jellis Craig – sold well at auction his weekend for over $3,000,000. I thought it was a solid result for what it was.
• Numbers out at opens and auctions seems normal.
• Clearance Rate this weekend OK, but on low numbers
• Two solid weekends of auctions ahead – but overall stock quality is not stellar

In terms of ongoing stock levels -

• Hamish Tostevin (Marshall White, Hawthorn) believes that stock levels coming in to June are similar to this time last year.
• Both Richard Winneke (Jellis Craig, Hawthorn ) and Maurice Di Marzio (Hocking Stuart, Balwyn) think things are down about thirty percent.
• Over the past three weeks I have seen quite a number of off-markets, some are over-priced and have serious adjoining development proposals upcoming, but others are good value, in the scheme of things.

Talking with Kevin O’Brien at Jellis Craig:  “The number of people coming in to Melbourne each week is steady and interest rates are low compared to the early 90s (when fixing in at 15% was a good move!)”

MALVERN, 33 Wheatland Rd: Steven Abbott (Jellis Craig), finds a lone bidder in the small crowd of 20, but passes in the property for $1,050,000.

Are we in for some Super Saturdays at the end of this month?

Justin Long, Marshall White (Armadale): “There are traditionally 4 or 5 very solid auction weekends in May, but with Easter falling so late in the piece, the first 2 weekends have not found favour with vendors. As a result, the 21^st and in particular the 28^th May are shaping up as very solid weekends. Watch out though: I have a feeling the 18^th and 25^th of June will also be big as we lead up to a winter, school holiday driven hiatus.”

“No way mate - this market is fighting back– taking no prisoners today (April 9th).” John Bongiorno. Malvern 54 Stanhope. Bought $3,170,000. 3 bidders.

Week Ending 30th April: Back from a week or two off, this market now, has a fairly clear run till Christmas, with a only brief breaks for a couple of holiday weekends.

Over the next four to six weeks we should see more choice and some reasonable activity (although not expected anywhere near the levels of last year), as the May market is a traditional agent preferred selling time. Why? Well there is a good stretch of time until Queens Birthday weekend to run an uninterrupted campaign. Stock Quality is the unknown.

Come July things will be relatively quiet as there is a general sellers’ feeling (rightly or wrongly) that good homes do not look their best at this time of the year and accordingly a number of high end selling agents take winter holidays in Europe and therefore do not program campaigns to be run in their absence.

In the post Easter week or so there have been ten or more high end sales including the representative  half dozen below

• 15 St Ninians in Brighton for between $8m and $9m – perhaps not a lot more than what is was sold for less than 2 years ago (need to look up sale time to be absolutely sure of date) – Justin Follett of Kay and Burton
• 255 New Brighton for between $5.5m and $6m – Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin of Buxton
• 50 Hotham St East Melbourne which had been on the market for at least 6 months for $7million – Paul Richards of Hocking Stuart – on the market for a fair bit of last year and also a failed auction. Nonetheless a reasonable price – not everything the sellers wanted – but more than had been offered at times in the past by buyers. A good result for both parties.
• 150 Clarendon East Melbourne – the Salta apartments saw Anton Wongtrakun deliver another big sale at $5,200,000 for Unit No 4
• Out to the paddocks of Lower Plenty with a Marketnews favourite Rocco Montanaro of Morrison Kleemand who achieved close to $3m on an Expressions of Interest Campaign for a good home on 7 acres at 75 Cleveland.
• And we round up our selection of high end Easter Sales with a $6M+ sale at Mount Eliza 15 Freemans Road – Michelle Skoglund of Aqua

In summary over Easter the market at this level has not been dead, but definitely subdued – there is increasingly a dampening mood in terms of both buyer and seller confidence. Time will tell if this is a short or longer term phenomenon. Price will play a important part going forward as we seemingly move into more uncertain market conditions – i.e. ones that are not as clear as they have been in the past 2 years since we awoke from the GFC. Overall the market now and in fact all of 2011 has not been strong at the $3m+ level – but there are still enough transactions (especially in Bayside) of sufficient value to avoid holding a wake just yet.

With winter approaching and a fair amount of stock available we think it is a buyers’ market and the future is best described as – “uncertain times”.

Finishing on a positive note our James Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (rentals are improving) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Finishing on a positive note our Investment Division has seen some solid interest with investors coming back into the market (improving rentals as well) and one current flavor of the times is blocks of flats. Some examples of what we are talking about.

Week Ending 16th April:The $3m action this week was away from auctions.

The drought in the Balwyn Formula – big price, small land, new home – was broken again with Maurice Di Marzio getting 59 Hosken Street, Balwyn North away in the high $3 millions. That’s the third in a week on the back of the two biggies reported last weekend.

Canterbury, 11 Chaucer Close, with Boroondara doyen Peter Mitchell of Marshall White, got the same sort of high $3 millions price.

Hawthorn, Harcourt St, was a hot place to be this week with Nick Ptak getting 79a away for just under $3.4 million (we think) and one of the results of recent times. Peter Vigano of Jellis Craig  got $3.625 million for 42 (we did not see that price coming)

Speaking of good results, Marcus Chiminello got a price in the high $3 millions for 2/264 Walsh St, South Yarra. It’s not our job to talk agents up but in a slow apartment market Marcus has got a number of solid results.

St Kilda West, 10 Loch St, with John Holdsworth sold for $3,650,000.

Andrew McMillan from Benmac got 367 Beaconsfield St, Kilda West away in the $4m to $5m range after a very lengthy campaign (probably due to previous asking prices).

At Auction today 68 Hopetoun Rd,  Toorak with Jellis Craig’s Steve Abbott, sold afterwards for $3.05 million. That was up a few hundred thousand dollars on the last time it sold around a year ago.

Week Ending 9th April: The strongest week this year for the $3m+ Top End market:

South Yarra 43 Marne St: Nicole Gleeson of Kay and Burton: Well over the $12,000,000 quote range making Domain Precinct land values at $8,000 per sqm for the bigger blocks.

Hawthorn 51 Berkeley St with Tim Blackett also of Kay and Burton: North of $7,000,000 on Scotch Hill for a good home that needs some reworking and a tennis court.

While still in Hawthorn Mr Nice Guy and Very Effective Tim Picken of Jellis Craig got away the quinella with 25 Mary St (Modern in Grace Park) being bought for a credible $4,300,000 and 1 Hilda (period in Grace Park) for $2,800,000. Both a little down on ambitious asks but nonetheless solid prices for what they were.

But wait there’s more and was it us who cried out the death of the Balwyn formula- new build, small block, overpriced. Well on a technicality were are still credible as it’s neighbouring Kew; but with 21 Macartney (Walter Dodich of Marshall White) and 5 Mawson (Peter Dixon of Jellis Craig) both selling at auction today for $4 million’ish, the death of this market maybe a little exaggerated. However please it is only two sales, but they were biggies.

The news doesn’t stop for sellers there with period home successes at 50 Wattle Valley Canterbury (Duane Wolowiec and James Tostevin) selling under the hammer for a strong $3,465,000; 54 Stanhope Malvern with Rae Tomlinson also under the hammer for $3,170,000 and 13 Rubens Grove Canterbury with Fletcher’s Jeremy Desmier bought before for over $3,000,000.

Bayside has recorded a few strong sales as well with 29 Bay Street Brighton (Bert Stewart of Buxton) selling post auction over $3,550,000 and the final result put north facing (no view) Golden Mile land over $3,200 per sq metre. That is a steady as she goes price similar to last year Golden mile (no view) buys. And another $3m+ sale with a strange twist (all non bidders asked to leave) at 40 Drake Brighton (Ian Jackson).

While on land sales 1073 Malvern Road Toorak (Justin Long) passed in at $3,225,000 and a reserve was offered – not taken up – two new bidders appeared and a second auction took place resulting in a sale well over the pass in figure.

Why all this activity? Pass-ins are still languishing in large numbers without much interest. However its all about quality and new stock and buyer confidence. All three things happened this week -

1. buyers felt better in themselves (confidence);
2. buyers felt this week had some real quality offerings (quality)
3. and buyers couldn’t see a lot of stock coming one (limited new stock)

Post Easter is no Buyer lay down misere after today’s results.

Like many auctions this weekend, a lot of standing around, not doing much. MALVERN EAST, 9 Lewes Drive: Passed-in at $2,500,000 with two bidders. Anthony Grimwade (RT Edgar)

At 6pm on Saturday the James Clearance rate for $M+ was 57% on the 30 auctions we attended. That was well down on last week’s cameo of excitement, but understandable giving the quality change between this week and last week at the Top End.

Bidderman, our demand indicator, was 1.5 bidders per auction. However the quality of the offerings was one of the lowest this year.

While there were a few volcanoes (4 or more bidders), what was more interesting was that 1 in 3 homes were ducks meaning they didn’t get a bid a all. We think that was a confirmation of the market reaction to this weekend’s lack of Top End quality.

In fact, only 1 in 5 of $M+ homes monitored this weekend sold under the hammer.  The rest sold before or soon after – or didn’t sell at all. That’s an Under the Hammer Clearance Rate of 20%.

What that means is that in this current market buyers need a lot more than just a ‘hand up in the air and hope’ strategy to buy homes well.

Market Summary:

There were plenty of auctions at the lower levels, e.g. at or around a million dollars, but many lacked any WOW factor.

A number of the key selling agents were off this weekend on holidays and, as with many buyers, they seem to have turned their attention to pursuits other than buying and selling.

It was hard to find a property over $2 million up for auction. The only $3 million plus auction we saw in Toorak was at 68 Hopetoun Road with Steve Abbott of Jellis Craig – an art deco that seems to get sold every 12 months (see report below).

The REIV median prices came out this week and rightly confirmed what the market has been saying for some time: Prices are weaker.

This year to date has been a positive one for buyers with reduced competition, more choice and lower prices. On the flip side the buying opportunities are only such if you take them (a Steve Abbott auction line).

Next week, there are almost no auctions and not too much the week after.

Post Easter, as we said last week, may or may not be a different story. But our feeling is that quality choice will dry up and the big issue will become finding a rose amongst the thorns, the pass-ins and the stales. If those roses are hard to find then prices for them will firm as new quality drops with discretionary vendors adopting a wait and see strategy.

What Sold Well – Volcanoes with 4 or more bidders

• Albert Park, 62 Barrett St – Peter Simmons – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,575,000
• Hawthorn, 23 Falmouth St – Hamish Tostevin – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,330,000
• Hawthorn, 11 College St – Richard Earle – Nicely renovated Period Home – $1,409,000
• Kew, 36 Maitland Ave – David Oster – Land site – $1,345,000
• Toorak, 80 Grange Rd – Rodney Morley – Nicely renovated Period Town Residence – $1,500,000

$3M+ market: Overall, the high end at $3 million+ appears as weak as it has been for 12 months. Although  a shortage of new quality stock post Easter has put some zing back into the market as some buyers are forced to act.  Growing kids, divorce, lifestyle, whatever cannot wait for everyone indefinitely. Go to our $3m+ report to see most of the last weeks’ 10+ sales.

Michael Armstrong, Kay & Burton, South Yarra: “I think we can expect a fairly normal market post Easter.  Market conditions are settled and stock levels looking forward to May/June are lighter than what we’ve experienced in the past couple of months.  Vendors have had to adjust their expectations in recent times and buyers with long term views have realised that the past few weeks have presented them with good opportunities. The better quality offerings will continue to attract competition and alternatively  buyers will continue to deal harshly with those vendors (and agents) who price properties incorrectly.”

ST KILDA, 2 Marine Pde: On a bit of a rollercoaster day, it was apt to have the Scenic Railway at Luna Park as the backdrop of this Claudio Perruzza (Biggin Scott) auction. Passed in, $1,850,000, no bidders

Biggest Sale we covered: 68 Hopetoun Rd, Toorak, Steve Abbott (Jellis Craig); after auction, $3,050,000, 3 bidders
“This art deco property with Heritage One (HO1) overlay was looking for a committed buyer to make it a home. A vendor bid of $2,800,000 got the proceedings underway and the first bidder entered the race with a bid of $2,850,000. A second vendor bid of $2,900,000 signalled that the bidding was still some way off from the desired sale price. Auctioneer Steven Abbott wouldn’t entertain an increment of $5,000, demanding at least $10,000 to stay in the race. Despite keen bidding, this property was passed in at $3,020,000 but this was just the start of the negotiations. Bought after for $3,050,000.” (Debbie McTaggart)

Biggest Pass In we covered: 12 Dudley Pde, Canterbury, Doug McLauchlan (Marshall White); passed in $2,000,000, no bidders
“Doug McLauchlan took centre stage in the very big, leafy backyard of this great property and looked ready for action. Assisted by his Marshall White team, Mr McLauchlan explained that the circa 1923 home had been in the same family for a massive 72 years. But even the sentimentalists amongst us in the crowd weren’t ready to put their hands in the air and bid. Mr McLauchlan opened and closed on a vendor bid of $2,000,000.” (Jen Milligan)

Auction Video: Architect Adam heads to sunny Hawthorn this week to witness a ripper auction at 23 Falmouth St, a Marshall White property with auctioneer Hamish Tostevin.  Click on the live action.

Big Issue and Weekend Reflections: Coming back after the Easter holidays.

Two Weeks Off: Marketnews will be on holiday for two weeks with our next Marketnews on the 7th of May. A number of agents are talking up the 21st and 28th of May as possible Super Saturdays (as buyers let’s hope so). For James Buyer Advocates it will be business as usual.

We Only Buy Homes and have a safe Easter break:

Job Advertisement:

ST KILDA, 2 Marine Pde: On what was a bit of a rollercoaster day auction-wise, it was apt that the backdrop of this Claudio Perruzza (Biggin Scott) auction was the Scenic Railway at Luna Park. Passed in $1,850,000, no bidders

St Kilda, 367 Beaconsfield, a ripper property, finally sold with Andrew Macmillan for about half the initial very ambitious asking price after a long time on the market, with a number of different campaigns and agents.

Albert Park, 62 Barrett St (Peter Simmons) a  three bedroom Victorian single fronted with parking, showed that if the quality is there and the price is right, $1,575,000, then the bidders will come. There were 4 bidders at this auction. See report below.

St Kilda West, 10 Loch St with John Holdsworth sold for $3,650,000 at Private Sale after auction.

Damian O’Sullivan, Marshall White, Albert Park: “Post Easter, both buyers and sellers should expect to see greater sales activity. This has historically been the case over the years when the market briefly pauses for Easter and school holidays. The weekend of April 30 and beyond will see greater auction volume as a direct result. Typically, this will be the case until winter really sets in, but prospective sellers should see winter as an opportune time to contemplate selling as fewer properties will be offered for sale.”

Lets hope that with the interruptions of the past month behind us, we will see a bit more stock coming onto the market, post Easter. Traditionally that tends not to happen until Spring. But we can always hope.

Have a safe Easter – Guy.

ELWOOD, 107 Mitford St: Small crowd and only a vendor bid at this Rob Watson (Century 21 Wilson) auction. Passed in, $1,300,000

MALVERN EAST, 15 Albert St: There was a bit of fence sitting at this Andrew Hayne (Marshall White) auction, and not a lot of action. Passed in $1,600,000, no bidders

With not much on offer this weekend, only one over $3m ( Steve Abbott – 68 Hopetoun Rd, Toorak) and minimum quality at the lower end, my thoughts turned to family, holidays and the Pies. Winter will be a time of continuing opportunity, but as buyers we will have to work hard to find them. And you will still need some bravery if you wish to take those opportunities. Overall, unless you are convinced that the world is going to fall apart, this is the best time to buy since GFC 2008 – providing it is the right home at the right price.

South Yarra, 2/264 Walsh St. A good high $3 million result from Marcus Chiminello. It’s not our job to talk agents up,  but in a slow apartment market Marcus has got a number of solid results in recent times.

Andrew Hayne, Marshall White, Armadale: “There will be a bit more stock post Easter, but May won’t be as busy as years gone by due to Easter being a bit later. The 3 weeks leading up to the June long weekend will be busy after the school holiday period, and then slow down again.”

Daniel Wheeler, Marshall White, Armadale: “What we will see beyond Easter will be fair prices being paid for properties, and a shrinking amount of property becoming available leading into the colder months. June is distracted with a long weekend, and yes, it’s school holidays time again – so we will have some interruptions. In the meantime, enjoy the quieter roads!”

Have a good holiday from all things real estate and see you back bright, refreshed and ready to buy after Easter. Drive safely – Mal.