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Deeper Examination Into Our Markets

Deeper Examination Into Our Markets
Spring Summary: To say the market is as strong as six months ago, or this time last year, would be a wrong call. As an across the board statement, it would be the wrong call, to state or assume the overall Inner Melbourne Family Home market is definitely on the way down, as there is still no [...]
The Market is not all about the Auction

The Market is not all about the Auction

Its 6.00pm Saturday and the James Clearance rate for $M+ Inner Melbourne was 74% on the 23 Auctions we covered today – solid. James Bidderman, that is bidders per auction, was 2.3 bidders per auction – also a solid number. Interesting to note the spread across the board, at the Top End, was fairly even between ducks/lone rangers, norms and [...]
News of my death may be greatly exaggerated

News of my death may be greatly exaggerated

The market is not as bullish, as urgent, or as downright insane as it was from February to May, even June of this year. Is this really a true statement? In many cases we are 20% above the start of the year. Is the market’s outward intensity less about dollars and bidding and more about that, we [...]
简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。

简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。

这是个概括,一个超级星期六的概括。John Morrisby就 40 Britten, Glen Iris 达成了交易,成交价$2,415,000 有3位竞标者。 墨尔本近郊数据 竞标人数 2 拍卖水平 245 清盘率74 竞标人数 零竞标者 1位竞标者 2/3位竞标者 4位以上竞标者 2      19%       19%       46%           16% 我们今天主要着重于关注高端房产,因为它是金矿中的黄宝石。如果市场有变化的话, 你将最早在高端领域看到,因为目前的市场是一个受高端房产驱动的市场。从传统上来讲,高端领域房产价格最容易受到影响,因此能很好反映情况。 今天我们报导的38场拍卖中有33场是超过二百万澳元的,并且其中近乎一半超过三百万澳元。你可能认为以下一些评论也许比较中立——我们不是——我们报导我们所看到的.我们看到一些变化,但是我们知道今天是一个超级星期六,而且我们集中关注的是一个传统的最少竞标者参与的部分——墨尔本高端领域中的高端,市场仍然相对强劲。 James 市场总结 每年这个周末是对春季市场的一个测试;因此我们今天把拍卖记录员派到各种不同的拍卖现场,从而来确认或否决拍卖现场到底在发生什么,并且墨尔本近郊百万澳元以上房地产市场是怎样的。 简而言之,今天的市场有点牵强,它没有像过去那样消化吞食上市房产,没有像今年五月份那样。 然而总体来说,我们觉得市场仍然是强劲的,只是没有像五月份那样强。 在上周你可以感觉到媒体评论,麦考利(Macquarie)和Westpac对一些范围有影响—— B级和C级房产。 即使上周末的市场统计数据也表明竞标者人数是强的,平均在5位左右,清盘率在80%,所有这些都基于大量的房产。今天处于2位边界线,清盘率也是在边界线上,我们这里所说的边界线是指市场强和正常之间的边界,而不是指市场坚挺和虚弱之间的边界。 和我们交谈过的中介报告说买者对公开房屋展示的兴趣和买者急切性有所下降,这是同中春的市场,同几个月之前的五月份市场相比较而言的,至于中介,他们的意见我们还是尊重的,他们仍然觉得市场是有支撑力的,只是力量没有像冬季前的白热化市场那样强,这点我们同意。 我们是否认为本周市场同上一周市场一样强——不。当1位竞标者人数和2到3位竞标者人数的拍卖百分比保持不动,而井喷的竞标者人数却急剧下跌,并且零竞标者情况在增加。 我们是否认为本周的市场同五月的市场一样热——不,我们认为自早春以来,我们已经确认过数次了。 我们是否认为市场正在下跌——也许,但是我们认为我们最好押宝押在市场在趋于平稳。 从一些历史角度来看: 这是一个巨大的周末,下面是James过去五年超级星期六的标题。 2015:简言之,今天的超级星期六市场有点牵强:清盘率74%,竞标人数2.0 2014:今天对买者来说非常艰难(就像预期的那样):清盘率77%,竞标人数2.1 市场在2015年初的变化速度从高速到超音速。 2013:超级,超级星期六!清盘率73%,竞标人数2.3市场继续在上升。 2012:市场在变坏还是在变好?我们认为是在变好!清盘率71%,竞标人数1.8. 市场在当月转向,并在后六个月上升,事实上一直升到现在。 2011:超级星期六:有些变好,大多数变坏:清盘率43%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在后六个月下降。 2010:这个超级星期六发生了什么?清盘率55%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在之后六个月下降,这确实是2010后期,2011和2012早期的非常平均走势的 开始。   那么总的来讲,2015的超级星期六对我们来讲意味什么? 市场的闲聊正在对市场增长的速度产生抑制作用。 虽然同过去的几个周末相比,今天的数字是下降的,那很可能只是由于市场上房产数量太大的缘故以及我们片面的只针对高端房产进行报导.对我们来讲任何的市场转向,尚未定论,但是我们承认在上一周出现了一些松缓的气氛。 通过与三个在上升市场的超级星期六相比(2012年10月到现在)这个周末的结果仍在同样的数值范围之内.就竞标者人数和清盘率而言,今天的结果仍然是我们称之为强势的市场。   毫无疑问,在高端领域出现了更多的流拍,这在市场变化过程中是正常现象,是的,市场可能在变化。这在市场存量激增的情况下也是正常的,是的,很可能是市场提供量的关系。我们根据今天所看到的还不能排除其中任何一种情况.当墨尔本市场发生变化时,它存在两种节奏——A级的(好的PPP好的价格,房子和位置)继续闪耀,B级的显示出了混合的结果,而C级的(差的价格,房子和位置)简单来讲卖不掉。这种情况现在正在发生,因为有些卖家把他们的价格目标定得越来越高,而买家的目标已开始平稳,甚至下跌。   是否墨尔本近郊市场已经发生改变? 可能,我们的意见是上周市场在自信上确实受到了新的创伤,但如果说这将产生比自信心受到更严重的情况还是为时过早,因此,我们将等到11月份再来确认这周是否是: * 短暂的停顿 * 水平矫正 * 或是游戏改变 十一月份三个星期的竞标者人数连同清盘率无论如何将告诉我们答案。 大的拍卖 11 Hilda Crescent, Hawthorn (Sam Wilkinson, Kay & Burton), 成交, $6,030,000, 3位竞拍者 26 Thanet Street, Malvern (Justin Long, Marshall White), 成交, $5,105,000, 2位竞拍者 9 Scotsburn Street, Hawthorn (Antony Woodley, Marshall White), 成交, [...]
The land was worth less with a nice home on it!

The land was worth less with a nice home on it!

James Market News Lite again. Talk of a quietening market, in a our opinion, is a little premature on what we saw today. Yes, clearance rates are down – but that is normal for this time of the year, as the real quality auction stock doesn’t come out in large numbers until either side of the [...]
Auction stock still low, but there’s a reasonable amount of ‘oomph’ out there in the market.

Auction stock still low, but there’s a reasonable amount of ‘oomph’ out there in the market.

At 6.00 pm on  Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 79% on the 29 auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement, was at 2.1. Another strong result. We are still on low auction stock, but there is still a reasonable amount of oomph in the [...]
Chinese Buyers continue to Underpin the Top End of the Market

Chinese Buyers continue to Underpin the Top End of the Market

Saturday, March 29: Market Summary 2014 is still motoring very strongly – the lull which we reported of the last few weeks seems to have been nothing more than the next tread (flatter spot) in the rising price staircase which begun in October 2012 and continues now. This weekend was another Super Saturday with over 150 Auctions in [...]
Back in the saddle, but a bit of a shocker at the Top End!

Back in the saddle, but a bit of a shocker at the Top End!

At 6.00 pm on Saturday the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 61% on the 38 auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement, was down to 1.3. An unusual day today, with everything down compared with recent weeks. $3M+ PLUS It was a bit of a shocker weekend for the [...]
Bayside Weekly

Bayside Weekly

The $3 million plus market has been alive and kicking this year. Seven properties have been sold in the last eight weeks at this level – almost one per week. 9 Dawson Avenue, Brighton, circa $4 million – Peter Kennett, Hocking Stuart 9 Linday Street, Brighton, high $2 millions – Kate & Rob Strickland, Marshall White 13 Bay [...]
This Market Is Building!

This Market Is Building!

At 6.00 pm on Saturday the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 74% on the 35 auctions we covered. The market had a solid number of offerings, so this represented a good cross-section of what quality homes are doing right now.  The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement, was 2.2, up from last [...]
Last hurrah before winter sets in for auctions after next week!

Last hurrah before winter sets in for auctions after next week!

At 6.00 pm on Saturday the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 76% on the 38 auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement, was 2.3, which is much stronger than it was this time last year (hovering 1.5). Wow Bidderman 2.3! In terms of bidder demand at auctions, the breakdown was: Ducks [...]
Market Spike or Stepping Stone to a new Peak?

Market Spike or Stepping Stone to a new Peak?

At 6.00 pm on Saturday the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 74% on the 38 auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement, was 1.8. In terms of bidder demand at auctions, the breakdown was: ◦Ducks (no bidder auctions) – 26% ◦Lone Rangers (1 bidder auctions) – 16% ◦Norms (2-3 bidder auctions) – 32% ◦Volcanoes [...]
This price segment is starting to rise

This price segment is starting to rise

Week Ending 18th May Off-Market Special This week, with the quality $M+ market continuing to move ahead strongly, we are looking at an increasingly large part of the market – the Off-market sector. Off-market transactions are transactions that take place without any advertising, without big glossies in The Age or without any internet presence. Consequently you won’t see [...]
Bayside Weekly

Bayside Weekly

Bay View Bayside saw a lower clearance rate of 55% this weekend, a bit of a disappointment after last weekend’s bounce up to 59% and contrasting with the strong results in areas like Boroondara and Stonnington. Brighton in particular saw a number of pass-ins with no bidders at all. These included 1a Wellington Street, which passed in [...]
Bayside Weekly

Bayside Weekly

Bay View There were over 20 auctions on in Bayside again this weekend. But even while other areas of Melbourne continued to see strong clearance rates (Boroondara 77% for February 23 and March 2; and Stonnington 78% and 85% respectively), Bayside clearance rates on March 2 were down considerably on the previous weekend. Only 44% of the [...]

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