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“Dummy Bidding” and the Current Market

“Dummy Bidding” and the Current Market
Contents 1. Hammer Watch – Quoting / Underquoting 2. Final Word on The Block and “Dummy Bidding” 3. Inside James – Bumper 5 Stories this week: Don’t buy it – better a missed opportunity than a mistake Build family wealth over individual wealth Handing back a fee to a client – and it hurt – hurt a lot. Pricing Heritage – pricing covenants [...]
And finally Telstra reported that a number of selling agents were returning calls to buyers…..

And finally Telstra reported that a number of selling agents were returning calls to buyers…..

It’s James Market News Lite on this special day, today. Today it was hard to believe what we saw, all over the Inner Melbourne auction scene. It was incredible. Overseas bidders from China were not actually putting offers in on homes, without FIRB approval and a number of negative gearing buyers who owned between 10 and 20 homes, had decided to [...]
Welcome to 2017 – Back on the hustings today

Welcome to 2017 – Back on the hustings today

Clockwise visits today – no substitute for foot leather, listening, looking and listening again. 1st Slide Clockwise from top left: Malvern East:$2.5m?  – little cutie – no, not the agent John Manton – the house. Good crowds at the OFI. Hawthorn: $4m? Off -Market or Pre-Market? – good family home. Crowds – Only one! Armadale: $4m? Nice one – listening [...]
How to buy a Top End home well – it’s different!

How to buy a Top End home well – it’s different!

INTRODUCTION If I told you buying a home at the Top End is more about trust than money, would you believe me? Maybe, maybe not. Well this is a story about 3 homes involving strategy, dealmaking and truths at the Top of the Top End. Towers Road, Toorak (Marcus Chiminello) Bought 2016: James Home Rating 942/1000 Kooyongkoot Road, Hawthorn (Ross Savas / Jeremy [...]
July has been fairly busy away from the auctions!

July has been fairly busy away from the auctions!

Hello and welcome back to James Buyer Advocates Marketnews. A few auctions of note today on very small numbers as the market awakes from its traditional Winter auction slumber.  We have covered 19 in our reporting; Bidderman was 2.4 bidders per auction and the $M+ James Clearance rate was 74% – even though a small sample, we think it’s an [...]
News of my death may be greatly exaggerated

News of my death may be greatly exaggerated

The market is not as bullish, as urgent, or as downright insane as it was from February to May, even June of this year. Is this really a true statement? In many cases we are 20% above the start of the year. Is the market’s outward intensity less about dollars and bidding and more about that, we [...]
简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。

简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。

这是个概括,一个超级星期六的概括。John Morrisby就 40 Britten, Glen Iris 达成了交易,成交价$2,415,000 有3位竞标者。 墨尔本近郊数据 竞标人数 2 拍卖水平 245 清盘率74 竞标人数 零竞标者 1位竞标者 2/3位竞标者 4位以上竞标者 2      19%       19%       46%           16% 我们今天主要着重于关注高端房产,因为它是金矿中的黄宝石。如果市场有变化的话, 你将最早在高端领域看到,因为目前的市场是一个受高端房产驱动的市场。从传统上来讲,高端领域房产价格最容易受到影响,因此能很好反映情况。 今天我们报导的38场拍卖中有33场是超过二百万澳元的,并且其中近乎一半超过三百万澳元。你可能认为以下一些评论也许比较中立——我们不是——我们报导我们所看到的.我们看到一些变化,但是我们知道今天是一个超级星期六,而且我们集中关注的是一个传统的最少竞标者参与的部分——墨尔本高端领域中的高端,市场仍然相对强劲。 James 市场总结 每年这个周末是对春季市场的一个测试;因此我们今天把拍卖记录员派到各种不同的拍卖现场,从而来确认或否决拍卖现场到底在发生什么,并且墨尔本近郊百万澳元以上房地产市场是怎样的。 简而言之,今天的市场有点牵强,它没有像过去那样消化吞食上市房产,没有像今年五月份那样。 然而总体来说,我们觉得市场仍然是强劲的,只是没有像五月份那样强。 在上周你可以感觉到媒体评论,麦考利(Macquarie)和Westpac对一些范围有影响—— B级和C级房产。 即使上周末的市场统计数据也表明竞标者人数是强的,平均在5位左右,清盘率在80%,所有这些都基于大量的房产。今天处于2位边界线,清盘率也是在边界线上,我们这里所说的边界线是指市场强和正常之间的边界,而不是指市场坚挺和虚弱之间的边界。 和我们交谈过的中介报告说买者对公开房屋展示的兴趣和买者急切性有所下降,这是同中春的市场,同几个月之前的五月份市场相比较而言的,至于中介,他们的意见我们还是尊重的,他们仍然觉得市场是有支撑力的,只是力量没有像冬季前的白热化市场那样强,这点我们同意。 我们是否认为本周市场同上一周市场一样强——不。当1位竞标者人数和2到3位竞标者人数的拍卖百分比保持不动,而井喷的竞标者人数却急剧下跌,并且零竞标者情况在增加。 我们是否认为本周的市场同五月的市场一样热——不,我们认为自早春以来,我们已经确认过数次了。 我们是否认为市场正在下跌——也许,但是我们认为我们最好押宝押在市场在趋于平稳。 从一些历史角度来看: 这是一个巨大的周末,下面是James过去五年超级星期六的标题。 2015:简言之,今天的超级星期六市场有点牵强:清盘率74%,竞标人数2.0 2014:今天对买者来说非常艰难(就像预期的那样):清盘率77%,竞标人数2.1 市场在2015年初的变化速度从高速到超音速。 2013:超级,超级星期六!清盘率73%,竞标人数2.3市场继续在上升。 2012:市场在变坏还是在变好?我们认为是在变好!清盘率71%,竞标人数1.8. 市场在当月转向,并在后六个月上升,事实上一直升到现在。 2011:超级星期六:有些变好,大多数变坏:清盘率43%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在后六个月下降。 2010:这个超级星期六发生了什么?清盘率55%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在之后六个月下降,这确实是2010后期,2011和2012早期的非常平均走势的 开始。   那么总的来讲,2015的超级星期六对我们来讲意味什么? 市场的闲聊正在对市场增长的速度产生抑制作用。 虽然同过去的几个周末相比,今天的数字是下降的,那很可能只是由于市场上房产数量太大的缘故以及我们片面的只针对高端房产进行报导.对我们来讲任何的市场转向,尚未定论,但是我们承认在上一周出现了一些松缓的气氛。 通过与三个在上升市场的超级星期六相比(2012年10月到现在)这个周末的结果仍在同样的数值范围之内.就竞标者人数和清盘率而言,今天的结果仍然是我们称之为强势的市场。   毫无疑问,在高端领域出现了更多的流拍,这在市场变化过程中是正常现象,是的,市场可能在变化。这在市场存量激增的情况下也是正常的,是的,很可能是市场提供量的关系。我们根据今天所看到的还不能排除其中任何一种情况.当墨尔本市场发生变化时,它存在两种节奏——A级的(好的PPP好的价格,房子和位置)继续闪耀,B级的显示出了混合的结果,而C级的(差的价格,房子和位置)简单来讲卖不掉。这种情况现在正在发生,因为有些卖家把他们的价格目标定得越来越高,而买家的目标已开始平稳,甚至下跌。   是否墨尔本近郊市场已经发生改变? 可能,我们的意见是上周市场在自信上确实受到了新的创伤,但如果说这将产生比自信心受到更严重的情况还是为时过早,因此,我们将等到11月份再来确认这周是否是: * 短暂的停顿 * 水平矫正 * 或是游戏改变 十一月份三个星期的竞标者人数连同清盘率无论如何将告诉我们答案。 大的拍卖 11 Hilda Crescent, Hawthorn (Sam Wilkinson, Kay & Burton), 成交, $6,030,000, 3位竞拍者 26 Thanet Street, Malvern (Justin Long, Marshall White), 成交, $5,105,000, 2位竞拍者 9 Scotsburn Street, Hawthorn (Antony Woodley, Marshall White), 成交, [...]
为年轻购房者的解决方案——冬季重要专题

为年轻购房者的解决方案——冬季重要专题

 6月20日星期六下午6:00——中期报告  * 新上市的新房数量正在逐步减少,因为大多数好的经纪人开始进入学校寒假的休息阶段,下周将是入春前的最后一次主要拍卖周。  在大量新的质量好的房子进入早春市场之前,任何市场变化的数据都没有什么意义。  到目前为止今年的总结很简单:就像我们在房地产业长期的从业者所看到的那样,房产市场等同或强于任何其它时段的市场。  在东区和海湾区,海外购房者是主要的推动力—他们呈爆发和持续的态势。  那些有大地块的房子以及没房子或房子可即推掉的大地块,价格在圣诞节期间上涨了10%,其中有些从二月份到现在又上涨了10%,是的,部分都涨了20%了。  这些“20%“上涨所产生的影响是巨大和深远的。我们看到越来越多原本接近百万房产的地区现在卖价都超过了百万,因为一些东区和海湾区的竞标失败者由于价格原因已经把他们的眼光转移出了他们原本希望的传统区域。由于受那些失败竞标者涌入的影响,那些对海外购买者没有吸引力的房产的价格也有了巨大的上涨,——也就是,那些当地没能力购买大地块房产的人被迫参与较小地块房屋的竞争。墨尔本近郊在价格,房产,位子这三点上,在2015年早期有了长远和深度的结构性变化,并且自1970以来达到了新的高度。自2009年FIRB法案(限制海外投资者)和FIRB法案修正案以来,海外购买和影响还在继续加速。墨尔本现在确确实实成了一个国际购买市场。  泡沫?嗯,吃不准是不是由于上述原因(移民)。当然,在某些阶段这种强度会有所减轻,但只有移民,税/养老金购买法,或利率有巨大变化的话,这种强度才会大幅度减轻,而这种情况短期内不太会出现。  我们临近冬至前的一个最后总结评语:游戏现在已经改变,如果我们每个人想在墨尔本(现今的国际市场)上购房,我们也必须做出改变。James买方代理已经做出改变——现在只有在房子卖出后你才能在公开的地方看到我们对房产的评估。你会发现在公开房屋展示场所看到我们黄褐色背心的身影有所减少,你会发现在拍卖现场看到我出席的次数有所减少,但其实我们买了比以往更多的房子。从2015年开始,游戏改变了,我们James买方代理已经改变以便能更好地满足我们客户的需要。你,受伤的竞标失败者难道不需要改变吗? James内部新闻 好消息之一:今天是Simone和Adam加入我们James以来第一次为客户参加买房竞标(卖房中介是Tom Ryan)。该客户在过去的18个月里已经失去了4次以上的机会。好消息是该业务是由卖方经纪人,Desiree Wakim无偿,也不为卖房而推荐的。Desiree之所以推荐是因为他认为Simone 关心而且能帮助客户,而Simone也确实做到了。感谢你,Desiree!
Young Homebuyers Issues & Solutions

Young Homebuyers Issues & Solutions

年轻购房者的问题和解决方案 Young Homebuyers Issues & Solutions James 市场总结 James Market Summary * 在惯例的七月冬季,墨尔本房产市场拍卖数量刮起了一股下降之风。看一下右方我们拍卖房产的图表—-很多人正开始暂停拍卖。 * 竞标者数量今天有所下降,然而房产质量本月有明显松动。 * 流拍较我们近期看到的要多,这是房产质量征兆的一部分,这同样也反应了卖主预期与市场博弈的情况。 * 在我们参加的27场拍卖中,81%的拍卖有2-6位竞标者,只要市场按这个力度走,这是个非常非常坚实的结果。 * 总的来讲,我们今天看到的,不多。市场的成交在心理上受到了媒体讨论的影响(这并不是抱怨——我们需要有这种讨论),虽然过一个周末长假,房产质量有所降低,但还是有了坚实的结果。 * 另外,欢迎回到James市场新闻(本周与下周将是大专题)。欢迎年轻的购房者在下两周分享我们的专题文章,然后在7月份学校假期期间市场新闻会暂停,James购房中介仍对客户开放。 The Inner Melbourne Market is beginning its wind down into the traditional July Winter break. Look at our forward auction stock graphs to the right – most are beginning to shut up shop. Bidderman was down today, however stock quality has also noticeably eased this [...]
Volcanoes are changing the landscape – as they do!

Volcanoes are changing the landscape – as they do!

James now Smartphone Optimised for easier reading – click horizontal bars top left hand corner of Iphone $1 million dollars more: So what do you do when across the road – same land size and same house sells late in 2014 for $1,900,000 – why you pay $1 million dollars more when Asian buyers duke it out to [...]
Some Chinese buyers have worked out agent quoting, but many local buyers appear to have not.

Some Chinese buyers have worked out agent quoting, but many local buyers appear to have not.

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 90% on the 30 auctions we covered. James Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement continues to be through the roof on big stock numbers at 2.9. Hello, did we write 90% on big auction numbers  and Bidderman nearly 3 – is this real? [...]
2014 is going out with a bang!

2014 is going out with a bang!

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, on a day where there were around 150 $1m+ scheduled auctions across Inner East and Bayside, the James Clearance Rate was 71% on the 38 auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement was at 2.2.  After a slight breather last week, it looks like the year [...]
The Top End of Town – November 2014

The Top End of Town – November 2014

Week Ending November 22 The Very Top End of Town in 2014 Strong, very strong. In fact ultra strong finish to the year and so much is happening behind the scenes – off market. To date this year we have bought more off markets than in any other year EVER. In the last month we have purchased 13 [...]
Slight breather today – nearly 50% of auctions with only 1 bidder

Slight breather today – nearly 50% of auctions with only 1 bidder

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 66% on the 32 auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement was at 1.9. Both Clearance Rates and Bidderman are down on the results we saw prior to the Melbourne Cup. Overall Summary of Melbourne’s Million Dollar-Plus Auctions: Ducks ($M+ [...]
It was bloody tough for buyers today (as expected)

It was bloody tough for buyers today (as expected)

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 77% on the 43 auctions we covered. The Weekly Review Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement was at 2.1. The crowds were MASSIVE. Very strong figures when you consider this was a Super, Super Saturday. For example, today was three and half times the [...]

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