What are you talking about? - course the market's OK! St Kilda East 239 Alma Road: Phillip Kingston: Bought for $1,500,000: 3 bidders (Photo Kate Agnoleto)

At 6pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate on the 31 auctions we covered was 58%.

Bidderman, our demand indicator of average bidders per auction, had a small rise to 1.6 bidders per auction, in part due to four volcanoes (strong auctions) including one 7 bidder auction in 28 Barrington St Kew.

These figures indicate that the market has now cooled – not frozen or falling apart, just cooled. That means we have moved into a buyers’ market, perhaps until Easter and possibly until Spring.

Well-priced homes are still selling. And there have been some surprising above-expectation results, such as 28 Barrington Kew (Glen Coutinho) which sold for $2,230,000 and, last week,Victor Road Kew (James Tostevin) at $4.1 million. But if the market doesn’t agree with initial pricing then it’s a slow, torturous journey to get a result. See our special Pass-Ins and Stales Report below.

This week we also look at the returns of serve on The Economist’s article as the ‘Experts’ hit back against the “Overpriced” headlines of last week.

This Weekend’s Market Summary:

This weekend in most places, except Boroondara, there was limited $M+ stock on offer at auction. The individual council clearance rates we report on in our market wraps could be distorted due to a) lack of auctions and b) lack of overall quality in those auctions. But this is not to imply a lack of stock in general – there are high levels of $M+ stock available across the board and Boroondara in particular is almost awash with homes on the market.

Looking specifically for a moment at Boroondara (Kew, Hawthorn, Canterbury and Camberwell), while this market may be a little out of kilter with the rest of Melbourne in terms of auction numbers, in the past few years it is a market that has shown the strongest resilience against negativity. It was affected by the GST for the shortest time, and has had the biggest price increases since. This weekend too it seemed to have a little oomph and we expect the clearance rate for Boorondara $M+ homes to be in the high 50s to low 60s.

But it does have a fight on its hands right now, with the main demand drivers (overseas buyers) reducing greatly in activity and supply to the market continuing to arrive week after week. Which means that buyers who can look beyond the headlines will find opportunities, and with the right strategies you should be in a position to push back a little against the seemingly never ending sellers’ market.

The next few weeks will be better in terms of auction quality in the top of the Top End in Boroondara. As long as those properties sell and the clearance rates stay stable, and if new stock reduces post Easter, we could move back to a balanced market. But if stock continues to come on in big numbers then the market will almost certainly remain cool with a significant change in demand sentiment.

Most of the $M+ homes on offer that sold this weekend were in the early $1 million range.

Bayside, Port Phillip, Stonnington have been quiet, with only a handful of sales in the post auction wash up from March 19th  and likewise at auction this weekend. In Port Phillip this is understandable as the Grand Prix completely extinguishes the market for almost a month. Why auction numbers are down in Brighton, Toorak and Malvern is not completely obvious – well not to us anyway. April 9th is shaping up as a Super Saturday of some sorts with almost 120 auctions in Boroondara and Stonnington combined. $M+ auctions in Bayside are still light on at the top of the Top End with mainly $1 million to $2 million homes on offer for the next few weeks leading into Easter. Most of the top of the Top End in Bayside is not going to auction.

Agent thoughts: Has the market changed since before the Labour Day weekend?
Chris Barrett, Marshall White, Hawthorn:“There have been a lot of people in the media talking about a negative change in the market since Labour day weekend, I however have found this to be unsubstantiated. As long as vendors prices are realistic and the property is presented well vendors can expect solid interest in their home.”
John Clarkson, Hocking Stuart, Brighton:“Good properties near local attractions and amenities, schools, shopping and the beach are still attracting a high level of enquiry.  Since Labour Day weekend the message is clear: If you are realistically priced you have a very good chance of selling . If you are above market perception, enquiry is reduced to a trickle.”  * For John’s full comments please see the Bayside weekly wrap.

James Special Report: Pass-Ins and Stales – The Autumn overhang build up.

We went back and re-examined all the auctions we reported on this year in 2011 and we revisited all the pass-ins, using still advertised on the net to determine their still for sale status. Please note that the table below is only connected with PASS-INS, not the homes we reported as bought before, at or just after auction on the day.

The table does make for interesting reading on the fate of a home that the market does not consider to be priced correctly at auction.

The table below shows Adjusted Clearance Rates comparing”On the Day” Clearance Rates with “On the Day plus Bought since”. Back in February 19 and 26 Pass-ins were taken up fairly quickly. However the most interesting stat is the lack of take up on Passed-in homes over the last two weeks of auctions: only 3 in 26.

• 1 of the 13 unsolds from the March 5th pass-ins and
• 2 of the 13 from the March 19th pass-ins.

This we feel confirms the view that the $M+ market started the year as balanced, but around Labour Day took a cooling direction.

What's happening Nick? Bentleigh 7 Eddys: Bought $1,312,500: 3 bidders. (Photo: David James)

James Big Issue: Agents claiming there are 100% Clearance rates in this market are just as misleading as saying the market is in freefall – both are far from the truth. Klarity Kris and Architect Adam cover it in the James Big Issue Video. Here is a summary of what they say.

• Still some surprising results. Two in particular, both in Boroondara, that stand out are Victor Avenue in Kew with James Tostevin – which sold for a hard to believe $4,100,000. Nic Franzman, Mark Dayman and Nic Ptak also from Marshall White’s result at 22 Stawell St Kew for $3,300,000. That was also a most surprising result
• We are hearing from agents 100% clearance rates – mainly due to agents feeling they need to respond to the Negativity of The Economist’s article and the Earthquakes, which for the moment have contributed to dampening demand.
• An interesting stat is that only 3 of the 26 homes we reported as passed in after auction in the last two weeks of auctions have since sold.
• We could say that 3 from 26 is reflective of the market strength – a far cry from the 100% Clearance Rate stats, BUT 3 from 26 while true, is also misrepresenting the market just as is reporting 100% clearance rates
• The market was in a balanced state pre Labour Day and as expected it is now going into a cooling phase until Easter due to increased stock levels and drop in demand intensity.

The message for buyers

• You have choice in the $3m+ range but there are still a few surprisingly strong results
• You will still have to compete relatively strongly if the home is good and well priced in that $1m to $1.5m range
• And the middle range say circle $2m to $2.5m is a bit of moving beast – the trend is not crystal clear to us at this stage.

Click on the JAMES BIG ISSUE video with Architect Adam and Klarity Kris in the middle of the home page

Media Monitor: Are Melbourne homes overpriced?

The case for being overpriced arose from The Economist’s article – which we reported on last week.  And now this week the case against those seemingly extreme overpriced by 56% headlines.

Rob Brooker head of economics from the NAB

1. Current events such as floods and Japan are affecting Melbourne short term, but long term our fundamentals are very strong.
2. Not suggesting prices are going to increase rapidly as affordability is hard pressed right now but we do have a shortage of housing stock.

His comments can be found in the excellent Kay and Burton report – sure it’s a selling tool but we listen to the expert commentary each time it’s on It’s well produced, they have credible experts and it’s relevant to our high end Melbourne market. Check it out, at least the expert comment stuff. The home fluff afterwards is up to you: http://www.kayburton.com.au/kayburtonreport

Paul Bloxham – HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, and a former RBA economist savages The Economist’s article stating “it’s too naive to be useful”. His main points in the Business Spectator are

1. We have an undersupply in inner city areas (totally agree with this comment)
2. Our stock is very high quality and has improved considerably over the last 20 years contributing to the increases in price paid (totally agree with this comment)
3. Very strong and improving economy (beyond our level of expertise but sounds good)

For the full article http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Australian-property-prices-housing-bubble-pd20110317-F24WP?OpenDocument&src=sph This was supplied by Al Craig of Jellis Craig – thank you.

‘Round the Grounds Headlines:
Boroondara- Some solid results but the trend is down under weight of stock numbers.
Bayside- Little movement on a lot of the recent Auction pass-ins
Stonnington- Small numbers of $M+ auctions today – although plenty of Top End non auction stock available
Port Phillip-With the Grand Prix – only 4 key $M+ auctions – 3 sold
More detailed analysis on our Weekly Local Council Market Wraps

Biggest Sales we can report:

• Templestowe, 9 Edwin: On the market since October of last year with Jeremy Tyrell of Fletchers. Has been bought for in excess of $4,700,000
• Richmond 37 Docker: Ken Griffith of Jellis Craig. Bought at auction, $3,300,000 – $3,500,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson Grove: Michael Lui of Marshall White. Bought after auction $3,600,000 – $3,800,000
• Toorak 17 Lansell, Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys. On the market since December of last year

Biggest Sale we covered after auction: 44 Mary St Hawthorn, Antony Woodley of Marshall White. Above $2,700,000 (Undisclosed): Bought after auction, 1 bidder

Biggest Sale we covered under the hammer: 28 Barrington Ave, Kew, Glen Coutinho (Hocking Stuart), Under the hammer $2,230,000, 7 bidders (WOW)
“This Kew property did attract a crowd of 80 people, with quite a few potential buyers in the mix. The auctioneer, Glen Countinho, had to field bids from a whopping seven different bidders! Despite the light rain, the flow of the auction was quite amazing and reached the final amount of $2,230,000 before the hammer came down.” (Sonia Matmati)

Biggest Pass In: 68 Studley Park Rd, Kew, Passed in, $3,700,000
“A very pretty setting for an auction. Standing on an elevated embankment, auctioneer Richard Earle literally oversaw proceedings. He began by highlighting the virtues of this property with energy and detail. No bids came forth, however, so it was passed in for $3,700,000.”

Auction Video: This week i’ts down to Brighton with Klarity Kris at 22 Oakwood Ave, a Hocking Stuart auction with Peter Kennett. Click on the live action.

Please Note: we always ask permission to film and we always show respect at each auction. We also never video at an auction we are bidding at. If you are at an auction and don’t wish to be videoed, there are designated no-video zones. See our co-workers or ask the auctioneer.

Buyer Master Class: Klarity Kris discusses what’s necessary when buying a home when there are kids in the picture. Is it double storey single fronted or single storey double fronted!

Copyright: Mouldy Bread Picture from ChemistryWorldBlog.

We Only Buy Homes

TOORAK, 37 Lansell Rd: Andrew Macmillan (BenMac) passes in for $2,800,000, no bidders, but thanks the crowd for their participation with a wink or two.

Key Points:

• Off Markets, Forthcoming Auctions and Expressions of Interest are increasing as market stock levels begin to rise dramatically.
• Nobody bid at the 19 Kingston St Malvern East auction (Iain Carmichael) at $4,250,000 but 2 bidders emerged post auction and fought it out afterwards to a price well in excess of the reserve and well in excess of $4,600,000. Go figure!
• Armadale 1026 Malvern: James Redfern of Marshall White: Passed in $3,400,000 and bought afterwards. 1 bidder.
• 20 St Georges Toorak which has been on the quietly on the market for some time before a more public campaign this year has been bought for an undisclosed amount. The asking price estimate was $12,000,000 to $15,000,000 and it is believed to have been sold in the middle. Andrew Tolson of TBM was the selling agent.
• “Little brother” down the road at No 10 St Georges hasn’t sold at an already passed Expressions of Interest deadline – however it would be hats off if the agents got near their $10,000,000 ask, even if it is St Georges, considering the homes characteristics.
• 14 Bruce St Toorak late last month – and it has been bought for a reasonable margin over $3,000,000. Good result for an Expressions of Interest campaign and the man that sells a number of these very quietly – Marcus Chiminello.
• Overall a number of properties on the market at the $3m+ price level that have completed Private Sale or Expression of Interest campaigns with no result.

Agent Q & A:“What is your take on the Economist’s article that Australian house prices are overvalued by 56%?”
Justin Long, Marshall White, Armadale:” While I do not have a view on every sector of the Australian market, as for Melbourne I think the observation is complete nonsense and that by and large house prices for Melbourne seem to me to be reflective of people’s excellent earning capacity whilst still allowing, especially in outer suburbs, the opportunity for low income earners to get a foothold.”

PRAHRAN, 68 Wrights Terrace: Like many of today’s auctions, this one had good numbers in attendance, but unfortunately no sale for Justin Long (Marshall White), passed in $1,610,000, 1 bidder

Key Points: It’s all about the bigger deals this week:

• Malvern 19 Hamilton – Justin Long – At Auction – $4,357,000
• Malvern 66 Claremont – Iain Carmichael – At Auction – $3,700,000
• Toorak 9 Ross – Justin Long – Auction – over $3,600,000
• Toorak – 3 Teringa – Andrew(s) McCann and Macmillan of Benmac – post last weeks auction – over $3,500,000 – nearly $5000 per sqm for rear south facing land
• Toorak – 611 Toorak Road – Expressions of Interest – Greg Herman of RT Edgar – $3,500,000
• Toorak – 231 Kooyong Road – James Redfern – Post last Saturday’s auction – over $3,500,000
• Malvern East – 127 Finch St – Rob Vickers-Willis – $3,300,000

Agent Q & A

How are stock levels and what will they be like leading up to Easter?

Mark Wridgway, RT Edgar, Toorak: “Stock levels over the next 6-7 weeks leading up to Easter are likely to be above normal. This year Anzac Day falls the Tuesday after Easter Monday which leaves only 3 days of that last week, which happens to immediately follow the school holidays. I can imagine that some people will essentially extend the school holidays to almost 3 weeks. Most vendors will want to see that period through before launching a new campaign, so the option is to get your property onto the market in time for a  9^th April auction date or wait until 21^st May.”

Justin Long, Marshall White, Armadale: “ The 3 weekends leading up to the Labour Day weekend were heavily booked even before Christmas hit us, as those who had purchased in late 2010 made plans to complete their real estate transactions at the earliest opportunity. Those not forced into February action seem to have been delayed until the first few rounds of auctions were played out and, the results having been reasonably encouraging, those that have waited are now finally making their decisions. The long weekend has adversely affected stock levels for March and the first weekend in April as many vendors chose not to have that weekend in their programs but as a result, the 9^th April seems to loom as the BIG weekend before Easter. In summary: expect a late (but strong) pre-Easter run.”

Hawthorn 35 Mason: Scott Patterson and Michael Armstrong: Bought for over $3,100,000: 4 bidders

Some interesting results to finish off the month:

• 6 Teringa Place Toorak with Andrew Macmillan and Andrew McCann of Benmac was bought Sunday for an undisclosed amount over $3,500,000. House was quite serviceable but it would have also been considered as a bulldozer job placing land just under $5000 per sq metre
• 

  49 Howe Crescent South Melbourne - bought in excess of $6,000,000. Expressions of Interest - Michael Coen Hocking Stuart

  And a very quick and smart result at 49 Howe Crescent South Melbourne with Michael Coen of Hocking Stuart – due to be sold through an Expressions of Interest Campaign completing 21st March it was snapped up within a few days of advertising on the 25th of February. The result was a strong one and is undisclosed but the  quoting was over $5,000,000 and we believe in sold for in excess of $6,000,000 to give you some perspective. We do a fair bit of work in the is Expression of Interest area and this again proves that those who wait until the stated deadline do not put themselves in the best position to buy.

• 

  290 Beach Beaumaris - Len Sharp Chisholm and Gamon - Full asking price of $2,950,000 after a previously failed selling campaign.

  Private Sale at 290 Beach Road Black Rock with Len Sharp of Chisholm and Gamon for full asking price of $2,950,000. This again supports our comments that 1) Bayside and 2) New and 3) $3m (almost) price tag are a combination that is getting some runs on the board in the late Summer of 2011.

• Caulfield 20 Langdon Road – Rochelle Butt and Rodney Morley of TBM got away 1500 sqm of land plus home in Caulfield North for an amount believed to be in excess of $4,000,000. Showing that Caulfield’s prices can be Canterbury prices when the right package is sought after.

Week Ending February 26th: If last week was the season opener for the $1m+ auction market, then  this  week  was the beginning of the $3m+ auction market and the main  focus for this weekend’s report. We don’t have all this weekend’s numbers in yet, so it’s hard to call, but it seems that this upper  market cleared at 44% of the properties under the hammer. We at  James accept a slightly lower auction clearance rate on the day in this segment as indicating balanced, warm or even hot  markets, because the air is generally thinner at this level due to the lower number of bidders available at this price point, and because the pre and post auction argy-bargy is  generally greater. Today there were quite a few $3m+ homes on offer. We  think this market segment is underwhelming at present – however if it is the right price, the right property and the right position it is still being well  received and taken up.

A few of the biggies that were bought

• Armadale 23 Wattletree Road – Justin Long – 3 bidders – $3,300,000
• Hawthorn 46 Illawarra – Mark Dayman – Bought Before – $4,250,000
• Brighton 33 Middle Crescent – Jason Swift – 3 bidders – $4,300,000
• Malvern East 8 Westgarth – Andrew Macmillan – 2 bidders – Post Auction Buy a smidge under $3,000,000
• Hawthorn 45 Mason – Scott Patterson – 4 bidders – Under  the Hammer over $3,100,000
• Malvern East 118 Finch – Bought for $3,150,000
• Kew 4 Madden – Peter Batrouney – Bought After – 1 bidder – $3,050,000
• East Melbourne – John Bongiorno – 3 bidders – $3,000,000

Some of the biggies that missed the mark

• Balwyn North 15 Stephens  – 2 bidders – Passed In for $3,650,000
• Balwyn North 59 Hosken – Passed In for $4,050,000
• Toorak 44 Verdant – Passed In for $3,750,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson – Passed In for $3,600,000
• Toorak 231 Kooyong – Passed In for $3,500,000
• Malvern East 50 Finch  - 1 Bidder – Passed In $4,100,000

St Kilda West 49 Mary: Passed In $4,000,000 - 0 Bidders: Andrew Stuart was not in the mood for mucking around – he had an uphill battle and he knew it. An opening vendor bid of $4,000,000 immediately hushed the vibrant crowd of 120 and that was it. Game over – a half time break for show but the gate was shut. A duck for this auction. Photos by Phoebe James

Week Ending February 19th: This market is either poor or, what is more reasonable to assume, still on holidays. Mike Gibson of Kay and Burton says that most high end sellers, as advised, are waiting. Hence the quality currently on the market is average. He expects good stock at this level to come on post Labour Day and before Easter.

To support our claims that the $3m+ market hasn’t really got going yet, look at this weekend’s Pass–Ins of $3m+ properties  –

St Kilda West – Mary St – $4,000,000 –  0 Bidders
James Auction Report: See Report Above

Camberwell – Canterbury Road – $3,801,000 – 1 Bidder
James Auction Report: An air of expectation at another James Tostevin Boroondara tennis court auction. He has almost singlehandedly made them his own over the last 2 years or thereabouts. His focus has been 20000 sq ft tennis court at $6m plus. A huge crowd, around 200 with kids trampolining, people milling and cars driving by. Everybody seems to know at least one person to give a wink or a nod to. Carnival atmosphere. Then the business started – well this time it didn’t. One auctioneer bid at $3,800,000 and then surprisingly one crowd bid for $1,000 more. Small Argument – settled with pass-in to the bidder on his $1,000 bid. Inside to do battle and last check they were still banging heads. We await the result.

"You are all very naughty schoolkids and I'm going to keep you back here somebody bids." Well no, James Tostevin didn't say that but he may have been thinking this on Saturday. Camberwell 31 Canterbury: Passed In $3,801,000: 1 bidder:

Balwyn – 12 Creswick – $3,425,000 – 3 Bidders
James Auction Report: A genuine bid of $2,000,000 opened proceedings. Auctioneer Maurice Di Marzio politely accepted the bid, suggesting it was closer to land value than a sale price, before offering a vendor bid of $3,200,000. More than 150 people watched Mr Di Marzio field bids from another two bidders before passing the property in at $3,425,000. Both interested parties headed inside after the auction for further discussions.

Albert Park – 139 Beaconsfield – $3,250,000 — 0 Bidders
James Auction Report: Auctioneer David Wood from Hocking Stuart was seriously up against the elements today as he tried to make himself heard against the traffic noise and the wind coming off Port Phillip Bay. The preamble was short and to the point, before he asked for bids. No one was prepared to open the bidding and he immediately entered a vendor bid of $3,250,000. Still no response, so half time was called. After the think music was up, the question was asked again and still no bids. The property was passed in on the vendor bid.

Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton successful at 29 Scott Grove Glen Iris

Kooyong – 711 Toorak – $3,190,000

In fact the only auction sale over $3,000,000 we covered was 29 Scott Grove Glen Iris (Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton) for $3,032,000 – 3 Bidders.
James Auction Report: A triangular battle developed right from the word go, and auctioneer Gowan Stubbings orchestrated the bidding superbly to maintain momentum throughout. Only when the $3,000,000 mark was eclipsed, did one of the bidders drop out. $32,000 later and the property was secured. Good naturedly, the two bidders shook hands to acknowledge the end of the contest. A riveting event.

However a few strong private and off-market sales show this market is not completely morbid. There is still some pulse. There were three very solid such sales in Bayside this week:

Brighton Golden Mile: Scene of 2 big sales over $10,000 per sq metre in February 2011

Shandford Avenue – Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon – $7.3m for 600sqm approx – which translates to $10,000 sqm for Golden Mile beachfront

Chatsworth Avenue – Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton – $11m+ for 1100 sqm approx – again, $10,000 sqm for Golden Mile beachfront

Kerferd Road – Andrew Stuart of Hocking Stuart – $4.9m off market – 440 sqm approx

Continuing with February Sales:

While we have seen no sales over $3m reported in Boroondara and only the long suffering and difficult to see what you can do with it 13 Como Sth Yarra finally sold (Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar) we have seen a reasonable amount of mopping up action in Brighton – a sort of summer clean out.

New and old Brightonians like to buy New in Brighton

1 Inner Crescent Brighton with Justin Follett of Kay and Burton for an undisclosed amount – proved difficult to move and while it was an impressive residence it must have been price that proved the sticking point. Having said that line it up against a number of apartments and I thought the final result was fair value.

This type of offering sold well over Summer

2 William St Brighton – cnr St Andrews –scene of the all the helicopter noise in recent weeks saw a similar offering to 1 Inner Crescent also sell –reportedly through Kay and Burton.

2a Mulgoa also with Kay and Burton and a similar offering got a lot of it’s 50% better price basically because of its golden mile location.

Another good result  in the Golden Mile this time for the dynamic duo Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin saw another of the Glyndon apartments (no 4) bought for $3,200,000 which continues to emphasize the demand for “retiree” offerings and it shows the selling appeal for Friedrich designs.

The Buxton duo again  – 1/188 The Esplanade with waterfront views but unlike the Golden Mile also some traffic noise – bought for $3,500,000.

And finally also Buxton in Brighton – David Hart got away a very popular 62 Dendy when we  went through it (but for us main road, south facing , tight block) for a smidge under $2,950,000. And increase of just over 28% from the depths of the GFC,  2 years ago.

TOORAK, 7 Toorak Ave; Kevin Bartholomeusz (Carroll McKeddie) basks in the glorious sunshine and a successful sale. Under the hammer, $2,763,000, 2 bidders

Agent Q & A:“Do you feel there is currently a big difference in the results of sales of lower end ($1m) properties as opposed to those of higher end ($2m+) homes? Yes or no, and why?”
Brad Fleming, JP Dixon, Toorak:”Across the board the demand for properties under $1 million is and always has been stronger because of affordability for both the home owner and investors, which achieve higher rental yields and less mortgage stress. As soon as the buyer can afford properties at $2m+, normally the demand is driven by purchasers with higher incomes wanting to buy a home which suits their personal requirements, especially with families, for example, who are thinking long term with family needs as the priority. This group becomes more focused around accommodation, location including schools and school zoning if required.  Personally, l have found both markets strong thus far, however the source of buyer does change depending on situation of the given real estate environment at the time of buying.”

Hawthorn 35 Mason: Scott Patterson and Michael Armstrong: Bought for over $3,100,000: 4 bidders

Week Ending February 26th: If last week was the season opener for the $1m+ auction market, then this week was the beginning of the $3m+ auction market and the main focus for this weekend’s report. We don’t have all this weekend’s numbers in yet, so it’s hard to call, but it seems that this upper market cleared at 44% of the properties under the hammer. We at James accept a slightly lower auction clearance rate on the day in this segment as indicating balanced, warm or even hot markets, because the air is generally thinner at this level due to the lower number of bidders available at this price point, and because the pre and post auction argy-bargy is generally greater. Today there were quite a few $3m+ homes on offer. We think this market segment is underwhelming at present – however if it is the right price, the right property and the right position it is still being well received and taken up.

A few of the biggies that were bought

• Armadale 23 Wattletree Road – Justin Long – 3 bidders – $3,300,000
• Hawthorn 46 Illawarra – Mark Dayman – Bought Before – $4,250,000
• Brighton 33 Middle Crescent – Jason Swift – 3 bidders – $4,300,000
• Malvern East 8 Westgarth – Andrew Macmillan – 2 bidders – Post Auction Buy a smidge under $3,000,000
• Hawthorn 45 Mason – Scott Patterson – 4 bidders – Under  the Hammer over $3,100,000
• Malvern East 118 Finch – Bought for $3,150,000
• Kew 4 Madden – Peter Batrouney – Bought After – 1 bidder – $3,050,000
• East Melbourne – John Bongiorno – 3 bidders – $3,000,000

Some of the biggies that missed the mark

• Balwyn North 15 Stephens  – 2 bidders – Passed In for $3,650,000
• Balwyn North 59 Hosken – Passed In for $4,050,000
• Toorak 44 Verdant – Passed In for $3,750,000
• Hawthorn 23 Lisson – Passed In for $3,600,000
• Toorak 231 Kooyong – Passed In for $3,500,000
• Malvern East 50 Finch  - 1 Bidder – Passed In $4,100,000

St Kilda West 49 Mary: Passed In $4,000,000 - 0 Bidders: Andrew Stuart was not in the mood for mucking around – he had an uphill battle and he knew it. An opening vendor bid of $4,000,000 immediately hushed the vibrant crowd of 120 and that was it. Game over – a half time break for show but the gate was shut. A duck for this auction. Photos by Phoebe James

Week Ending February 19th: This market is either poor or, what is more reasonable to assume, still on holidays. Mike Gibson of Kay and Burton says that most high end sellers, as advised, are waiting. Hence the quality currently on the market is average. He expects good stock at this level to come on post Labour Day and before Easter.

To support our claims that the $3m+ market hasn’t really got going yet, look at this weekend’s Pass–Ins of $3m+ properties  –

St Kilda West – Mary St – $4,000,000 –  0 Bidders
James Auction Report: See Report Above

Camberwell – Canterbury Road – $3,801,000 – 1 Bidder
James Auction Report: An air of expectation at another James Tostevin Boroondara tennis court auction. He has almost singlehandedly made them his own over the last 2 years or thereabouts. His focus has been 20000 sq ft tennis court at $6m plus. A huge crowd, around 200 with kids trampolining, people milling and cars driving by. Everybody seems to know at least one person to give a wink or a nod to. Carnival atmosphere. Then the business started – well this time it didn’t. One auctioneer bid at $3,800,000 and then surprisingly one crowd bid for $1,000 more. Small Argument – settled with pass-in to the bidder on his $1,000 bid. Inside to do battle and last check they were still banging heads. We await the result.

"You are all very naughty schoolkids and I'm going to keep you back here somebody bids." Well no, James Tostevin didn't say that but he may have been thinking this on Saturday. Camberwell 31 Canterbury: Passed In $3,801,000: 1 bidder:

Balwyn – 12 Creswick – $3,425,000 – 3 Bidders
James Auction Report: A genuine bid of $2,000,000 opened proceedings. Auctioneer Maurice Di Marzio politely accepted the bid, suggesting it was closer to land value than a sale price, before offering a vendor bid of $3,200,000. More than 150 people watched Mr Di Marzio field bids from another two bidders before passing the property in at $3,425,000. Both interested parties headed inside after the auction for further discussions.

Albert Park – 139 Beaconsfield – $3,250,000 — 0 Bidders
James Auction Report: Auctioneer David Wood from Hocking Stuart was seriously up against the elements today as he tried to make himself heard against the traffic noise and the wind coming off Port Phillip Bay. The preamble was short and to the point, before he asked for bids. No one was prepared to open the bidding and he immediately entered a vendor bid of $3,250,000. Still no response, so half time was called. After the think music was up, the question was asked again and still no bids. The property was passed in on the vendor bid.

Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton successful at 29 Scott Grove Glen Iris

Kooyong – 711 Toorak – $3,190,000

In fact the only auction sale over $3,000,000 we covered was 29 Scott Grove Glen Iris (Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton) for $3,032,000 – 3 Bidders.
James Auction Report: A triangular battle developed right from the word go, and auctioneer Gowan Stubbings orchestrated the bidding superbly to maintain momentum throughout. Only when the $3,000,000 mark was eclipsed, did one of the bidders drop out. $32,000 later and the property was secured. Good naturedly, the two bidders shook hands to acknowledge the end of the contest. A riveting event.

However a few strong private and off-market sales show this market is not completely morbid. There is still some pulse. There were three very solid such sales in Bayside this week:

Brighton Golden Mile: Scene of 2 big sales over $10,000 per sq metre in February 2011

Shandford Avenue – Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon – $7.3m for 600sqm approx – which translates to $10,000 sqm for Golden Mile beachfront

Chatsworth Avenue – Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton – $11m+ for 1100 sqm approx – again, $10,000 sqm for Golden Mile beachfront

Kerferd Road – Andrew Stuart of Hocking Stuart – $4.9m off market – 440 sqm approx

Continuing with February Sales:

While we have seen no sales over $3m reported in Boroondara and only the long suffering and difficult to see what you can do with it 13 Como Sth Yarra finally sold (Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar) we have seen a reasonable amount of mopping up action in Brighton – a sort of summer clean out.

New and old Brightonians like to buy New in Brighton

1 Inner Crescent Brighton with Justin Follett of Kay and Burton for an undisclosed amount – proved difficult to move and while it was an impressive residence it must have been price that proved the sticking point. Having said that line it up against a number of apartments and I thought the final result was fair value.

This type of offering sold well over Summer

2 William St Brighton – cnr St Andrews –scene of the all the helicopter noise in recent weeks saw a similar offering to 1 Inner Crescent also sell –reportedly through Kay and Burton.

2a Mulgoa also with Kay and Burton and a similar offering got a lot of it’s 50% better price basically because of its golden mile location.

Another good result  in the Golden Mile this time for the dynamic duo Regina Schmidt and Brian Devlin saw another of the Glyndon apartments (no 4) bought for $3,200,000 which continues to emphasize the demand for “retiree” offerings and it shows the selling appeal for Friedrich designs.

The Buxton duo again  – 1/188 The Esplanade with waterfront views but unlike the Golden Mile also some traffic noise – bought for $3,500,000.

And finally also Buxton in Brighton – David Hart got away a very popular 62 Dendy when we  went through it (but for us main road, south facing , tight block) for a smidge under $2,950,000. And increase of just over 28% from the depths of the GFC,  2 years ago.

Valuing land is difficult enough, but there are even more variables when it comes to getting a consistent opinion of the market value of an actual building.

We always counsel long term passive investors to buy purely on land value, or to buy proven populist homes like Victorians and Edwardians as opposed to new homes.  Why?

Buildings are very much like clothes: they are fashion statements and, as such, various styles go in and out of fashion. Many of us love period homes now, but in the 1960s the thinking was to modernise them and in the process a number of classic buildings were destroyed. Similarly, Art Deco was loved in the 1920s and 30s but now has a limited following  – a very passionate one who will pay strong prices, but limited nonetheless.

The value of a home depreciates just as a new car does the moment it is driven from the showroom.  If half your money is spent on the home (the other half on the land) and that home goes out of favour as many do (such as the recent fad to Georgian reproduction homes), then while the land component may be growing in value, the other half of your money is working in a negative direction growth-wise.

To demonstrate the various ways different people can regard the same building, here are the opinions of four famous agents on the value of a 25 square 1970s home, with an ensuite and double garage, on a nice block in Inner Melbourne.

Ms Artina Deco: $400,000. “I think this home will be bought by an overseas buyer who would consider this a good solid home.”

Sir Eddy Wardian: $300,000. “I think this home will be bought by a new home buyer and renovated to new. My estimate of its value when renovated is $700,000 and I think it will cost $400,000 to renovate – therefore it is worth $300,000.”

Mr Victor Rian: $200,000. “I think this home will be bought by an investor who will get a 3% rental return so I have based my calculation on that.”

Cal Bung: Zippo – $0. “I think this home will be bought by a developer who will bulldoze and put up units.”

As for me – my opinion of the market value of this home would depend on where it is located. If it was Balwyn I’d say $300,000 to $400,000, because that’s how overseas buyers from China and India have been assessing similar homes recently.

But if I was in Brighton or Toorak, I’d say between zero and $200,000 because it is more likely to be bulldozed and the site developed. Many great homes in Toorak have no value because they are bulldozed by a new owner with plenty of funds who want to make their own footprint.

While there are no set in stone rules in building value assessment – here are a few guidelines that we follow

1.       New homes we calculate at replacement value

2.       Near new homes we calculate at replacement value minus a cosmetic update cost

3.       Homes 20 to 50 years old depend on the suburb. A way of getting a handle on values on these buildings is to build a database of comparable (similar) sales, subtract what you consider to be land values, and build a range of how the market values homes.

4.       1940s to 1970s homes without architectural merit – zero. With merit – difficult!

5.       Pre 1940s period homes that need to be completely gutted – a token amount depending on size

6.       Pre 1940s period homes that need some work – completed value less estimated renovation value

7.       Pre 1940s period homes completely renovated – compare to others in area and if that is not easy we value at replacement cost as if it were a similar quality and sized new home.

Valuing homes and land and emotion is the pursuit of perfection by the imperfect – but the closer you get, the better your decisions and strategies can be.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus Magazine

Tim Wilson and Jeremy Fox get ready to do battle at 2 Bromley Toorak, but in the end there were not in the trenches and they stood there as generals and watched 3 bidders slug it out to $5,600,000 - $800,000 over reserve.

Week Ending November 27th:

The high end ($3m+) which like the proverbial brides nightie (not sure if I can say that) is up and down at the drop of a hat. A fortnight ago it was up and last week it was down – this week it was up and in a big way – below are some of the results.

Highlights:

• Toorak 2 Bromley with Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar for 5,600,000 – 3 bidders (see report)
• Hampton 3 Lorraine for over $3,000,000 with Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon (Expression of Interest)
• Armadale Adelaide (Off Market)
• Hawthorn 41 Wattle Road – good home on the market for some time bought for well over $5,000,000 through Paul Keane Jellis Craig
• South Yarra 2/155 Domain Road Marcus Chiminello of Marshall White bought for in excess of $7,500,000 or $20,000 per square metre  (Off Market)
• Toorak 88 Mathoura Road for $6,500,000 bought before – also Marcus Chiminello
• Armadale 12 Munro with Tim Derham, passed in at auction last weekend at $3,000,000 and has been bought afterwards.

$3m+ not so highlights:

• Brighton 12a Manor: Passed In $3,800,000: Zero Bidders
• Hawthorn 5 Yarra: Passed In $4,500,000: Zero Bidders
• South Yarra 16 William: Passed In $4,200,000: Zero Bidders
• Canterbury 35 Logan: Passed In for $2,860,000: Zero bidders

South Melbourne 9 Anderson: An exciting auction which had a buzz from the crowd, trams, birds and sounds of people playing sport down the street at the Melbourne Sports And Aquatic Centre. Geoff Cayzer was auctioneer and, although soft spoken, he was very entertaining with his humour and pre-auction speech. This lightened the atmosphere and allowed two bidders to fight it out after Mr Cayzer's opening bid of $2,850,000. The battle wasn't long though as after some 5 bids the hammer was brought down and the property sold for $3,250,000, which brought cheers and jubilation from the winning bidder's party. A great, fun and entertaining auction to watch.

Week Ending November 20th:

This market seems clear as mud in terms of short term directional pointers. Some good ones sold, some good ones didn’t and all on a turnover down on this time last year and down on September of this year. But the market hasn’t stopped completely in its tracks eg 50 Charles Kew with Paul Keane of Jellis Craig – going nowhere for some time then some interest, then bang a boardroom auction and well north of $4,200,000 was achieved on the night. On the quiet side, a second off market north of $13,000,000 in recent times – actually it was over $15million and in establishment Toorak – Mike Gibson from Kay and Burton the selling agent.

$3M+ Highlights

• Malvern 116 Stanhope: Paul Keane of Jellis Craig. Bought for just under $3,500,000
• South Melbourne 9 Anderson: Geoff Cayzer. Bought under the hammer for $3,250,000: 2 bidders
• Ivanhoe 9 Nyorie: David Oster of Jellis Craig. Bought after auction for $3,100,000: 2 bidders

$3M+ not so Highlights:

• East Melbourne 105 George: Passed In on a vendor bid for $4,500,000
• Malvern 1 Wilks: Passed In on a vendor bid for $3,000,000
• Armadale 12 Munro: Passed In on a vendor bid for $3,000,000

Great Expectations but in the end it was more like Bleak House as 50 Hotham Melbourne East failed to sell under the hammer. Passed In for $7,000,000. Glen Coutinho of Hocking Stuart

Week Ending November 13th:

………But this new state of affairs does not apply so much to the $3m+ market which was a little less shiny today after shining like a beacon 7 days ago. In fact there were a number of significant pass-ins at this level this weekend.

So in a nutshell: last week’s doom and gloom on low quality stock and a negative feel mid-week at open-for-inspections was followed by a bit of a bounce-back this weekend – with more homes selling than expected. But that’s not to say it’s a strong sellers market by any stretch of the imagination. At present the market is, in our opinion, between cool and warm, depending on the quality of the stock. We await with interest next week’s instalment as to where our late Spring market is heading.

Highlights

• 32 Linlithgow, Toorak (Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar) was the biggest sale of the day (see report below)
• 4 Snowden, Canterbury (James Tostevin and Duane Wolowiec of Marshall White), Bought after at an undisclosed price of more than $3,000,000.
• 35 Cole St Brighton (Ian Jackson of Kay and Burton), Bought at auction for a shade over $3,500,000 – after not selling at an Expressions of Interest campaign earlier in the year

Lowlights

• The weather
• Biggest Pass-In was at 50 Hotham East Melbourne, a great home with an 800+ James Rating. It failed to attract any bidding near the reserve and was passed in at $7,000,000
• $3M+ pass-ins at 188 The Esplanade Brighton, 3 Buley Hawthorn East, 18 Heyington and 12 Merriwee Toorak

Camberwell 18 Currajong: 3 bidders, 3 advocates and one great auction: Maurice Di Marzio: Bought under the hammer for $3,375,000

Week Ending November 6th:

What a difference a month and some increased stock levels make. If you have a look at our $3m section in October and compare it to our September report you will see a big difference in activity, especially when you consider the market had a clean run in October with no election and limited footy interruptions, and had five

Click on video to see $3m auctions live

auction Saturdays. This market is as fickle as the horse race we love to watch. In Winter this market was down, in September it definitely perked up and now the $3m+ and off-markets would appear to be edging downwards again. But again the statistics are hiding the full story: there were in fact a few sales over this level we have been asked not to report on, and we ourselves have purchased four off-markets over $1million in the last month, in Brighton, Clifton Hill, Hawthorn and Caulfield. Plus look at this weekend’s $3m+ results! The fact is, there is still plenty of activity – just not as public as in September. There are good homes available for sale off market if you know where to look.

• Elwood 45 Dickens: Jason Scillio: Under Hammer: $3,535,000:  3 bidders
  A large crowd gathered in the front garden of this magnificent property to hear Jason Scillio provide a well prepared preamble prior to inviting bids from a large crowd on this beautiful afternoon. After the usual hesitation, strong bidding emerged from three buyers and it was on the market at $3,450,000. The house was soon bought with a strong bid $3,535,000. (David James)

• Carlton North 810 Drummond:  Tom Roberts:  Under Hammer  $3,450,000:  3 bidders
  What a home. This is the best example of the saying ‘don’t judge a book by its cover’.  It is an ugly duckling from the street, but when you walk through the door you’re hit with one of the most stunning living area renovations I have seen in Inner Melbourne. The auction itself started with a pretend bid at $2,000,000 that was immediately countered by auctioneer Tom Roberts with a vendor bid at $3,000,000 and she took off from there. Three bidders and on the market at $3,300,000 before settling at $3,450,000 in front of a crowd of 125.

• Toorak 6 Benson: Gowan Stubbings: Bought around $3,000,000: 3 bidders
  A great auction to watch. Auctioneer Gowan Stubbings led the way, offering a vendor bid of $2,400,000 after a member of the crowd offered an initial bid of $2,350,000. With three bidders overall, it became a battle between two very confident, strong parties, both determined to fight it out to the very end. One bidder offered increments of $10,000 and even $100,000, while the other settled on $1000 increments each time. Ultimately, the $1000 bidder won, walking away with the property for an undisclosed amount close to $3,000,000. A very entertaining auction with a crowd of around 60. (Jen Milligan)

• Some solid results outside Saturday’s auction:
  Toorak 63 St Georges: Andrew Baines of Kay and Burton: Expression of Interest for just under $8 million. Went through this home and tennis court.It had a good feel and, just as the ad says, an exclusive street address. At around $4,000 per sqm it was a win for the buyer and seller.
  Two blocks of flats sold at mid week auctions: South Yarra 28 Tivoli ($4,825,000)  Philippe Batters: 46 Ulupna; Ormond ($3,700,000) Andrew Chisholm.
  Brighton 11 Kent Campbell Cooney was bought post auction for $4,100,000, which put south-facing, non beachfront land on the Golden Mile at $3,800 per sqm

• It was gratifying to see the number of professional advocates acting for buying clients this weekend. The Bidderbuzz auction at Currajong auction had three advocates, and there was one each on Benson, Drummond, Elwood. While the advocate didn’t win the chocolates for their clients every time, at least it shows more $1m, $2m, and $3m+ buyers are making informed decisions.

South Yarra: 7 Motherwell, Andrew Macmillan (BenMac) was the only Stonnington auction we attended on Super Saturday that actually sold. Bought after $2,050,000, one bidder

Key Points:

• 7 of the 9 Stonnington auctions we attended had no bidders at all, while the remaining two had only one bidder each and this was on a good quality stock day.
• While there were 18 buys over $1 million, remember that $1 million is entry level here.

Why is the Stonnington market so poor?

Our left-field and unscientific opinion is that this is the most mistrusted $M+ market in Melbourne, and that buyers have had enough of the deceit when it comes to how a property is represented in terms of price. Some serious malcontent between buyers and selling agents won’t be helping either. (We will except Benmac on these grounds, who do quote and play fairly.) Contrast this situation with that in Boroondara, where Jellis Craig under Scott Patterson, Richard James and Richard Earle have re-engaged with the buying public in a significant way, post GFC, with great results. So there may be a lesson here for Stonnington agents. We would advise Stonnington sellers to check out how many bids you have on the table under your current quoting regime.

Biggest Buy we covered: South Yarra, 7 Motherwell, Andrew MacMillan, BenMac, Bought After Auction, $2,050,000, 1 bidder

“The small crowd gathered and the neighbours peeked out of their flats to watch the auction at 7 Motherwell Street. Auctioneer Andrew Macmillan attempted to extract an opening bid by suggesting to the crowd that in order to keep warm they needed to raise their hands and put in a bid. However this failed to warm anyone up and he was forced to put in a vendor bid of $1,950,000. This was met by a positive response from one member of the crowd who put in a bid of $1,970,000. However this was all the action for the day, and the property was passed in to the lone bidder. The property was bought afterwards for $2,050,000.” (Joshua Bong)

Biggest Pass In: Toorak, 3 Kingsley, Jeremy Fox, RT Edgar, Passed In $4,000,000, no bidders
“There is no doubt that this is one of the quietest and most sought after courts in Toorak. However, as auctioneer Jeremy Fox found out, clearly not appealing enough to sell at auction on Saturday. Mr Fox was quick to make a vendor bid of $4,000,000 which failed to ignite any interest and the property was passed in. Afterwards, a neighbour offered a gin and tonic – they certainly are civilised in Toorak.” (Guy Angwin)

Agent Q & A:

What are stock levels like post Melbourne Cup Weekend?

Brad Fleming, JP Dixon, Toorak: “I believe stock levels have increased in the past few weeks. Buyer demand for quality properties outweighs the properties actually listed and currently advertised.  It is important as a buyer to understand that many of us agents have ‘quiet’ listings that have not yet been advertised for sale, therefore calling agents directly would be recommended.”

Brad Cooper, Jellis Craig, Glen Iris: “It’s definitely picking up at the moment.  Both the 27th November and 4th December are shaping up to be really big days.”

Jeremy Fox, RT Edgar, Toorak: ”What we expect up until Melbourne Cup is lots of sales, as this high level of stock we are now seeing is going to disappear very quickly. At the moment we only have one auction listed  in December, consequently anyone looking for a home will have to wait until Feb and March of next year for more stock to become available.”

Results:

This coming weekend is a “Super Saturday”, one where the market has  a larger than normal amount of stock on offer at auction. We call them majors, and for agents and market watchers they are like the Masters in golf or the Grand Final in footy.

Why do they occur? They happen because of Melbourne’s numerous public and school holidays, and because of our obsession with big sporting events like the Melbourne Cup and the Grand Final, which interrupt even the momentous occasion of home buying and selling.  Smart agents plan holidays around these times in order to stay married and in touch with kids. So miraculously, few auctions or opens seem to fall on holiday time.

Many high end homes are sold by auction, which by tradition takes four Saturdays to arrive at its crescendo. So avoiding holidays and sporting fixtures for a four week run is considered vital.

Another point is that human beings are herd animals. We like to sell homes in the New Year and in Spring and we are not keen on selling in Winter. As buyers we can only do our thing when the home stock is there to do it. So our buying activity follows the selling patterns.

At this time of the year, in order to have a clear four week auction campaign you need to start after Grand Final and finish before the Melbourne Cup.  Only one Saturday qualifies for that timing – the 23^rd of October. Hence the more than 1000 auctions across Melbourne and the more than 200 $M+ auctions in this magazine’s focus area – a Super Saturday.

In Spring there is often a Super Saturday just prior to the Grand Final, but the election uncertainty ruled that out this year. There will be one or two in late November/Early December, especially because of the likely late finish to the markets this year. That’s due to the nervous nellies who waited and waited and those who bought late and therefore could only sell late.

Next year we will get Super Saturdays in the last two weeks in February. The Australia Day weekend is the starting gun for the markets and four weeks later, like a quick romance, the babies begin arriving. The following Super Saturdays are determined by fitting in selling campaigns between Labour Day and Easter. And finally there are always one or two pre-winter Super Saturdays in May – depending on school holidays and Easter.

So why are they important? Well, they are a real battle where large numbers of gladiators (some without a bloody clue) do battle all across Melbourne. With 10 skirmishes in Glen Iris, 14 brawls in Toorak, one or two scuffles in Canterbury and a couple of rip roaring ding-dongers in Brighton the generals (agency owners) will get clear feedback on where the fighting is headed and what the strategies should be in the aftermath. With today’s communications most selling agents and some buying agents can get trend knowledge by midday from 10.30am results and can apply this to the afternoon auctions. That is why we go to so many auctions.

Mere mortals will get this knowledge a bit later. So by this time next week as you prepare to put your bets on, we all should have a pointer as to what will happen in the property market between Melbourne Cup and Christmas. Bring it on – we love these Super Saturdays. They let us all know what is really happening in the market.

Printed each week in The Weekly Review – Melbourne’s Million Dollar Plus Magazine

Good Karma: Karl Fitch (Noel Jones) at 19 Karma Ave, Malvern East. Bought under the hammer for $1,241,000 and a whopping 5 bidders

Key Points:

• Of the eight Stonnington auctions we attended, only two were bought under the hammer – 19 Karma Ave, Malvern East (Karl Fitch, Noel Jones), for $1,241,000, and 1 Nareeb Crt, Toorak, (Jeremy Fox, RT Edgar), for $2,710,000.
• Karma Ave had five bidders, but there were only five bidders in total across the remaining seven auctions we attended.
• Biggest sale of the day was 1 Nareeb Crt, Toorak (see details below)

Biggest sale, Toorak, 1 Nareeb Crt, Jeremy Fox, RT Edgar, Under the Hammer, $2,710,000, 2 bidders
“It had been raining all night and there wasn’t much hope that any auctions this weekend would be conducted outside. But, in what was probably an omen, as soon as Jeremy Fox commenced the auction at 1 Nareeb Court Toorak the clouds parted and the sun came out. Two bidders emerged to compete for this 60s home and after two breaks and some 18 bids, the property was for bought for $2,710,000.” (Guy Angwin)

BidderBuzz Auction of the Day: Malvern East, 19 Karma Ave, Karl Fitch, Noel Jones, Under the Hammer, $1,241,000, 5 bidders
“Often before auctions people come up to me and ask me what I am doing and as a result we begin a conversation. On this particular occasion, as it turned out, I had a conversation with a lady who was well connected with the home. Her father had built the home back in 1929/1930 as a family home for her (6 months old at time) and her mother to move in to. She was sad to see the home go but was philosophical about the need to move on. From that time on I had an empathy with the home and its outcome. And what an outcome it was – some 30 bids and five bidders who worked with the auctioneer, the lucky bidder purchasing the home for $1,241,000 to start their own history in this much loved home.” (Guy Angwin)

Biggest Off Market & Private Sales

• 98 Finch St, Malvern East, Nicole Gleeson, Kay & Burton, undisclosed – click here to see our $3m+ section for more details
• 20 Howitt St, South Yarra, Tim Wilson, RT Edgar, undisclosed- click here to see our our $3m+ section for more details

Agent Q & A

What advice would you give a buyer wanting to purchase a property between now and Melbourne Cup Weekend?
Justin Long, Marshall White, Armadale:“Enjoy the opportunity to select from a wider range of properties than has been available for some time. Be selective but if you find a home you really want, go for it. Don’t risk losing it for a couple of percent. The current “supply dream” will turn very quickly into a drought within the next 6 weeks and you may need to wait until next year to purchase.”
Brad Fleming, JP Dixon, Toorak:”Buyers who are wanting to purchase a property, between now and the Melbourne Cup, need to be ready to make a quick decision – especially with Private Treaty.  This is the time when an additional group of buyers travel to Melbourne with one purpose only: to buy a property for either investment, job relocation and university enrolments. And they leave only once have secured their property.  These buyers are well researched from the use of the internet, and they make appointments to inspect properties prior to arriving in Melbourne. So all they have to do is to choose a suitable property then buy immediately – with limited time being the greatest motivation.”
Mark Wridgway, RT Edgar, Toorak:”The same advice I would give any buyer: if the property suits your requirements (that is, if you can tick 7 out of 10 boxes) then you should buy it. Stock levels are at their highest now and heading towards Cup weekend, so maximum choice for the year is now. If you can’t tick 7 out of 10, then wait. Good Luck.”
Daniel Wheeler, Marshall White, Toorak:”If you’re looking to secure a property over the coming weeks, do so with confidence. Housing prices stem from consumer confidence and simple economics, and both factors are indicating that it’s time to act. With the current level of property available and the immediate lack of properties for sale beyond Melbourne Cup weekend (compared with previous Spring markets), the next two weeks are certainly an opportune time to buy.  Buyer sentiment is not the same as it was last month, or even earlier this year. That’s a good thing; you will see that properties prices will be ‘fair’. Why wait until stock levels drop? – as there will still be the same amount of buyers; just more competition.”

National Breast Cancer Awareness Month was celebrated at the auction of 12 Sunnyside Grove, Bentleigh (Andrew Chisholm, Buxton). Elmo was on hand to watch as the home was bought under the hammer for $1,165,000, 4 bidders

Key Points

• Ascot Vale, 13 Fisher – Ray White – With views over the Maribyrnong River, this was bought for $2,000,000. Land value $2,000+ per sq metre
• 8 buys over $1m in Caulfield and Elsternwick this week, including in the heart of the Bagel belt – 31 Aroona with Rochelle Butt of TBM at $2,511,000
• Templestowe, 70B Newmans – Robert Sordello – Bought Before for over $2,000,000
• Warrandyte, 31 Oakland – Spiro Drossos – Private Sale over $1,700,000

Agent Q & A

What advice would you give a buyer wanting to purchase a property between now and Melbourne Cup Weekend?
Bill Stavrakis, Biggin Scott, Elsternwick: “My advice to any genuine buyer would be to look at purchasing a property that suits their requirements, if the price is right. Procrastination might very well lead to buyers being ‘caught out’ through the lack of new listings coming onto the market post Melbourne Cup. Stock levels seem to be nowhere near the volume of last year and this may very well result in very few buying opportunities leading up to Christmas.”
David Oster, Jellis Craig, Ivanhoe: “I would suggest to a buyer that wanted to purchase between now and Melbourne Cup… to go for it. There are (higher) stock levels and the opportunity to enjoy a more balanced market.  If you are the highest bidder and it’s passed in to you, make sure that you enter into a reasonable negototiaion. Don’t outsmart yourself.  Be flexible.  And you aren’t paying or competing with the same market as 12 months ago. Enjoy it, as the market can swing again such as it did from 2008 to 2009..and it wasn’t in a buyer’s advantage.”
James Davis, Miles Real Estate, Ivanhoe: “With rates having stabilised, it’s a good time to solidify your position and take the next step on the property ladder and upscale. As the market keeps steamrolling on, now is the perfect time to buy property…today…if not yesterday!!”

Around the grounds
Moonee Ponds, 135 Park St, Brad Teal, Bought Under the Hammer, $1,230,000, 2 bidders
“A crowd of around 60 gathered to watch Brad Teal auction 135 Park Street, Moonee Ponds. A vendor bid of $1,050,000 opened the proceedings and things progressed slowly with the half time break, which occurred after one actual bid of $1,070,000. Then the sale was fought between two parties aggressively until a final result of $1,230,000. Solid result for the vendors.” (David McMillan)

I give up! Milo Rasinac (Nelson Alexander) at 15 Jacka St, Essendon. Passed In, $2,500,000, no bidders

Essendon, 15 Jacka St, Milo Rasinac, (Nelson Alexander), Passed In, $2,500,000, no bidders
“Just as the auction started the heavens opened up on 15 Jacka Street, Essendon and despite auctioneer Milo Rasinac’s best efforts no bidders emerged from the 100 strong crowd. The property was passed in on a vendor bid of $2,500,000.”(David McMillan)

Ivanhoe, 51 Robbins St, Rod Watson, (Jellis Craig), Passed In, $1,050,000, no bidders
“By the scheduled auction time at the Robbins Street auction, only a sparse crowd was evident, obviously having been frightened off by the torrential rains earlier in the day. Just as the sun was slow to come out, so were the spectators slow to gather. Yet assemble they eventually did, to witness a largely uneventful auction, despite the quality of the property up for offer. And, despite his best efforts, auctioneer Rod Watson was unable to elicit a response from the crowd to his numerous requests for an opening bid (unless a dog casually sauntering his way through the crowd can be taken as interest!?) and the home was subsequently passed in on a vendor bid of $1,050,000, leaving the surprised crowd silently stunned.” (Nikki Hills)

Templestowe 20 Edwin: Passed In $2,600,000: 1 bidder: Auctioneer Adrian Santini:

Templestowe, 20 Edwin: Adrian Santini of Barry Plant: Passed In for $2,600,000, 1 bidder:
They breed ‘em tough out Templestowe way. This was a knock down, drag it out affair and I was exhausted just watching it. Forty minutes – seven or more vendor bids and one genuine bid. Adrian Santini passed in this home at $2,600,000, having started it at $2,000,000 with a vendor bid. One bid from the crowd at $2,300,000. Next time I’m taking a cut lunch and if it’s that cold again – a sleeping bag as well. I’ll be honest I didn’t see why it took so long to achieve the result it did. A crowd of around 50. (Mal James)

Armadale 5 Glassford: Justin Long of Marshall White: 3 bidders and bought under the hammer for $2,350,000.

Key Points

• Fall in Clearance Rate today
• Stock offering not as good as October 23rd
• Very little new stock in this week owing to Melbourne Cup in 4 weeks
• A lot of off market on offer
• $3m+ homes have come on in big numbers compared to winter

Biggest sale

5 Glassford St, Armadale, Justin Long, Marshall White, Under the Hammer $2,350,000
“Good solid crowd full of anticipation waited for Justin Long to start proceedings on this sun filled day. And bang straight out of the blocks with a hopeful $2million bid. Bang again 2nd bidder and we were off. This auction was a funny one – not funny ha ha – funny strange – nobody followed Justin’s bidding suggestions but things flew along anyway – especially when a third bidder joined in. This sight was a natural amphitheatre and there was a clear echo of everybody bids and Justin’s comments – sort of like a sound system out of sync. Anyway things were just warming up when the half-time break was called and to the surprise of many it was announced on the market and to everybody’s further surprise it was bought under the hammer for the same amount. The surprise was because this was a Marshall White auction and they tend to pass-in everything – however please this was the right thing to do – 3 active bidders and so market price was paid. A good fair auction.” (Mal James)

BidderBuzz auction of the day

Toorak 1/693 Toorak Road: Rodney Morley, TBM Woodards: 4 Bidders: Bought under the hammer: $1,460,000

Rocket Rodney was his usual bursting with energy self. He really does know how to make an auction zing and keep a crowd entertained . The occasional, as he puts it, politically incorrect joke combined with a couple of subtle digs to get the recalcitrant bidders moving and we more often than not have the makings of one of life’s little moments of enjoyment. 1/693 Toorak was no different – opened up at $1,200,000 and then strong bidding until it was on the market around $1,360,000 and bought for $1,460,000. 4 bidders and a good buy. Rodney is what you want in an auctioneer – flamboyant, fun and fair. Check out Rodney’s auctions – they are often better than Foxtel. (Mal James)

Agent Q & A:

October 23 is Super Saturday – What can we expect?

Gerald Delany, Kay & Burton, Toorak: “October 23 will see a big supply of property on offer. The confidence in the market will see the supply absorbed and we expect to enjoy a strong market through the spring. The economic confidence we are experiencing continues to carry through to property.”

John Bongiorno, Marshall White, Armadale: “Stock levels are a bit like a roller coaster – the following couple of weeks after Super Saturday see stock levels fall again so hence I believe it will be business as usual on the 23^rd.”

James Redfern, Marshall White, Armadale: “At this stage, compared to this time last year, we are seeing less property coming onto the Spring market….therefore I would suggest we should see good quality property still very much ‘in demand’ with buyers looking for quality homes in good locations. We might see however a late November / December rush of stock coming onto the market.”

Iain Carmichael, BenMac, Armadale:“I believe clearances should be good next weekend irrespective of the large number of properties on the market, attendance’s at open for inspections have all been good. What we will see after next weekend is a clearer picture as to where the market actual is at this point of time. Melbourne is the auction capital of the world and what an exciting weekend it will be.”

Forward Auction Bookings

Clearance Rates

Results

Some of our buyer prayers have been answered

Market: Even with significantly reduced auction numbers this weekend (owing to a more important event which finally delivered a result that proved there was justice in the world), we still saw a pretty healthy market result for sellers – with a 74% Clearance Rate on the 55 $Million+ auctions we monitored. Of those 55 auctions, 9 results were not reported. But even that is not unreasonable under the circumstances of the GF Replay.

There seems little doubt that the market is on the rise. The big interest now is how the market will absorb the stock surge that will culminate in Spring/Summer’s first Super Saturday on October 23rd.

And it really is Super Saturday - with a massive 81 $M+ auctions booked for Boroondara alone, and around 200 $M+ auctions booked in our key focus $M+ areas – Bayside and Inner East. Check out the size of the Weekly Review this week (it’s as big as a phone book). By comparison this weekend saw only one quarter of that number of auctions. So if you were at an auction this weekend, those four bidders you competed against may well be spread across four homes in a couple of weeks. Well that’s the “buyer-hope” theory anyway.

This Week’s Highlights:

• Two land sales showing vastly differing land values
  a) Land at 101 River Avenue Plenty (39,500 sqm), which can be subdivided, was auctioned  by Rob Stefanovski of LJ Hooker Greensborough and  bought for $3,830,000 or $96 per sq metre
  b) A large land parcel (1,813 sqm) at 3-5 Heath St Sandringham sold after a failed auction by Bill Jowett of Buxton for $2,800,000 or $1,544 per sq metre
• The major stock inflows that took place on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday when agents began their marketing campaigns for the next Super Saturday – October 23rd.
• The continued improvement of the $3M+ market – two examples below
  a) Off market in Black St Brighton (Peter Bourbaud and Barb Gregory) – bought for around $4 million
  b) 27 Moorhouse Armadale with Gowan Stubbings of Kay and Burton – bought after an Expression of Interest campaign for more than $5 million
• The Pies Forward Line pressure (whoops, sorry – I got distracted)

Auction Snapshot from this weekend: 133 Rathmines Fairfield: Michael Fry and Grant Leonard of Nelson Alexander. Bought under the hammer for $1,116,000. 5 bidders.
There was a buzz about this well located timber period home, which had had its quote lifted to $930,000 during the campaign. It was a surprising development given Grant’s comment that the property failed to attract any interest in the high $800s a few months ago with a quiet sale campaign. It was on the market with the first bid at $900,000. Second bid $950,000. Third bid $970,000. Fourth bid-  bang $1,000,000. Three more bidders joined in before the action stopped at $1,116,000. It was a well run auction campaign. I always enjoy a Michael Fry auction. He has a sophisticated grace about him incongruent with the fact that he is yanking the dollars from buyers’ pockets. Enjoyable to watch unless you’re an underbidder – which unfortunately this time we were.

Bumper Market Insight: We have an information packed Market Insight this week; even though there are no Market Wraps, Bidderman, reports or videos.  The footy replay threw this auction weekend into a bit of chaos, with a few auctions even changing days. But it was a very low stock weekend anyway, so no major damage. All $M results are at the end of this Market Insight. But the big news now is the next three weekends that will lead full bore into the Melbourne Cup Long Weekend.

Stock Levels and Price Assessment:
The big question the market will be asking now is: What will happen to prices on October 23rd? With this big stock influx, how is the price game of snakes and ladders going to pan out? Are we going to see the slippery snake and big price slide of May 2010 or will the market just take this in its stride, as it did this time last year, with prices climbing further up the ladder? Time will tell. Importantly as buyers you need to get yourself organised – and don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.

With this apparent largess of choice, perhaps you don’t need brilliant home-seeking skills right at this moment. But you will need first class assessment procedures (e.g. sorting the goodies from the baddies in terms of capital growth prospects, and working out which one is best from a “happy wife = happy life” point of view). You will also need good negotiation strategies – because while you may have more choice, you will also have competition. Remember, our bidders per auction indicator Bidderman was strong on lower numbers in September, especially on good homes. On the flipside, some sellers expectations may be disappointed, so planning good negotiation strategies will improve your chances of grabbing a bargain when it presents.

Have a look at our Forward Auction Booking graphs below to get an idea of what is ahead of you: (click on a graph to enlarge)

There are also some exciting trophy homes on offer through private sale and off market – especially in the $3m+ segment.

Have a look at the New Stock Graph at the top of Market Insight – which compares the last week in September to the last week in June, (private sale and auction weekly new stock numbers are combined).

Special Report on the $3m Market

The $3m+ is back, after the self induced May hiccup that led to a very quiet winter.

There have been over 50 buys in the month of September at this level, with buyers coming from all quarters. Let’s pick one of the segments – around $4million. We have bought 3 homes at this specific level in the last few weeks. All were classic period homes with land of over 1000 square metres. Two were bought post auction (eg after a pass-in) and one was off market (Black St Brighton). However, the interesting thing were the buyer profiles. One buyer was a change of life family, one was a growing family that needed more space, and one was an expat family returning from overseas. This is a fairly accurate representation of the range of people we look for homes for. Of the last case – expats returning from overseas -Brighton high end agent Peter Bourbaud believes “this group will push the market along for the next few years, after a couple of very quiet years from the expat community”. We concur. Last year we conducted very little in business terms last year for expats. However in 2010 there has been a distinct pick up in action from expats returning home.

The James September $3m+ Report with all reported $3m+ boughts and solds can be viewed from the Home Page (next to Market Insight and below Buyer Masterclass) or click here

If you are new to the $3m market you may find the charts below (using 2007 to 2010 Valuer General, REIV and our own James Databases) of some value, as they help to show how the overall $3m+ market works. Note particularly that:

• The two powerhouse $3m+ suburbs are Brighton and Toorak (see 2009 results graphed below). However these two suburbs behave quiet differently from each other (see median graph). More on that another time.
• More $3m+ is bought later in the year than early. (2009 graphed below)
• There are some real name streets around and there are some falsies (where if you pay top dollar you will stand out like a beacon)
• Less than a quarter (25%) of $3m+ homes sell under the hammer at auction (click on September Graph below)
• A lot more activity is off market (not advertised) at this $3m+ level than any other price point, e.g. sub $3m.

Click on any of the graphs below to bring them up to full size

Agent Comments on the current $3m+ market

• “Prior to the school holiday period there was some renewed strength in $3m+ market due to things stabilising after the election and to the shortage of good quality homes. With the spring market in full swing it will be very interesting to see what happens with the increase of volume. But if the enquiry rates are anything to go by, October will be a strong month of sales.” Andrew Hayne of Marshall White Malvern
• “The $3 million plus market is strong, and we are expecting a big finish to spring in this market for good family homes.” Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon Brighton
  
• “There seems to have been a resurgence of buyer enquiry for the upper end properties recently.  It will be interesting to see if this follows through once we see increased stock levels after the school holidays and round 2 of the Grand Final.” Julian Augustini of Hodges Brighton
• Andrew Baynes from Kay and Burton South Yarra “Last Monday was the busiest auction sign up day for me in 10 years.”

Media Monitor: Domain – The Age 2/10/10. Headlined: “Hands up if you don’t have a clue” by Josh Jennings. Basically a solid article – but Josh, how many homes has Dr Damien Eldridge, Economics Lecturer from La Trobe University, bought using his quoted bidding advice this year? Would it have been 5 or 10 or 50? Going by his auction comments we were unclear as to whether you were holding him out as an expert – or simply providing supporting evidence to your headline.

We are not all brickbats here for the mainstream press. Congratulations to Chris Vedelago from The Age who this year has been consistently reporting the market as it really is and who actually seems to get out of the ivory tower (that so many property reporters are stuck in) and goes to auctions and talks to agents. We mightn’t always agree with you Chris, but we respect your work. Keep it up and keep getting out into the market.

Market News TV: On Tuesday of this week we ask the question: Is the ACCC or CAV the right watchdog for the real estate industry? Check out our Agent Opinion Videos.

Buyer Masterclass: We conclude our Negotiation Masterclass series with an article on Backward Bidding. From next week until Christmas we will be looking at “Pricing and Values” in Million Dollar Melbourne

Reported Results:

Big Crowds on Canterbury: 42 Wattle Valley. Bought After: Richard Winneke: Over $3,426,000: Photo courtesy Jellis Craig.

September Executive Summary:

Demand: Solid and increasing

• Reported Boughts: 46
• Bidderman: Substantial improvement in bidders per auction at the higher level. Random cross section of bidders. 1/3/2/1/3/1/3/2/2/3/3/3/2/1/0/0 for a month average of 1.875

Supply: New Stock Low

• Overhang from May however new stock is still light on at end of September and that which comes on at a reasaonble price is mostly being bought.

Price: Firming

• A number of stales (on market over 3 months) were purchased in Bayside reducing overhang – this will have an upwards effect on price if demand remains constant.
• Some new properties coming onto the market but new stock is still limited in Boroondara and Stonnington also encouraging price in an upwards direction.

Quote of the month: Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton ” In this improving Upper End market, sellers are getting back the control that they lost with the stock splurge in May”

Highlights
Over $9 million
Hawthorn 24 Coppin: Jock Langley: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. This basic house, on an acre on the river in Hawthorn’s river precinct, has been on the market for well over a year and had quotes at $15m then 12m and then…. A number of agents have worked on this. I went through this home last year and finally Jock Langley has got a sale through under $10m. It is a great block, its only fault until today was its price tag.
Brighton 292 New: Brian Devlin and Regina Schmidt: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. Up for sale for less than a month, this grand looking home was purchased today for around $9,000,000. A very impressive block just down from Brighton Grammar.
Over $7 million
Toorak 11 Cole: Ross Savas: Private Sale: Quote $8,000,000 plus reported as bought for above that figure
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/11-Cole-Court-TOORAK
Hawthorn East 49 Harcourt: James Tostevin: Bought After: Over $7,200,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8661/49-Harcourt-Street-HAWTHORN_EAST/
Brighton 6 Head: Jeremy Fox: Sold well after auction: Around $7,000,000
Full Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/6-Head-Street-BRIGHTON

Bidderbuzz Auction of the Month
24 Somers Malvern: Jeremy Fox: Under the hammer: $6,160,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report and Rating: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8705/24-Somers-Avenue-MALVERN/
The sunfilled courtyard was a perfect setting for the Somers Avenue auction, with the lovely weather attracting a generous crowd of interested parties and onlookers alike. Auctioneer Jeremy Fox asked the crowd for an opening bid, but was disappointed with silence. It wasn’t long before a confident bid of $5,000,000 soon had the ball rolling though. Two parties continued with strong bidding, as the crowd watched on with baited breath. It was at $5,650,000 when another bidder keenly entered the fray, enquiring if the house was in fact yet ‘on the market’. There was clear buzz of anticipation amongst the crowd, as Mr. Fox conferred with the vendors, and finally confirming in the positive. Bidding continued fast and furiously between bidders, whilst the crowd remained captivated. The final knock-out bid brought on a genuine look of relief to the successful bidder. A truly entertaining auction, as you could hear echoed amongst the departing onlookers. (Nikki Hills)

Late Entries (Not Included in Stats)
Brighton Black St: Peter Bourbaud and Barb Gregory: Off Market: James Home Rating 852/1000. Price Undisclosed
Toorak 5 Myrnong: Darren Krongold and Sally Zelman: Private Sale: Price Undisclosed
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/5-Myrnong-Crescent-TOORAK
Armadale 23 Moorhouse: Gowan Stubbings: Expressions of Interest: Price over $5,000,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/23-Moorhouse-Street-ARMADALE

Apartments:
East Melbourne 144 Jolimont Road: Marcus Chiminello: Penthouse $3,250,000
Melbourne 301/401 St Kilda Road: Marcus Chiminello: Lucient $3,100,000

Albert Park
Albert Park 62 Beaconsfield: Kaine Lanyon: Quote $3,500,000 to $3,750,000: James Home Rating 655/1000: At Auction: Over $3,300,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/62-Beaconsfield-Parade-ALBERT_PARK

Armadale
81 Rose: Tim Derham: Bought Over $3,300,000. A  terrace home that needed a fair bit of work but did have rear access and was north facing to rear. Solid result.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/81-Rose-Street-ARMADALE
21 Adelaide: John Bongiorno auctioned this “bulldozer or significant rebuild” home at 4.30pm today. Bought for $3,130,000 or just over $4,000 per sqm. Bidderman 3. Heather Elder and Rae Tomlinson
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/21-Adelaide-Street-ARMADALE
28 Seymour: Joanna Nairn: Quote $3,500,000 plus: James Rating 682/1000: Bought After Auction: Around $3,500,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/9007/28-Seymour-Avenue-ARMADALE/
1 Myamyn: Andrew Macmillan: Under the hammer: $3,215,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8670/1-Myamyn-Street-ARMADALE/
3 Avalon: Ross Savas: Bought: Reportedly over $7,000,000, but not confirmed:
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/3-Avalon-Road-ARMADALE

Balwyn
Balwyn 23 Bevan: Richard James & William Chen: Quote $3,300,000 to $3,600,000: James Home Rating 742/1000: Bought After Auction: Around $3,500,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8932/23-Bevan-Street-BALWYN/

Brighton
10 Campbell: Peter Kennett. Private Sale after a Pass-In Auction. In excess of pass-in $3,850,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/10-Campbell-Street-BRIGHTON
20 Bent: Justin Follett. Private Sale . Within asking price range $3,800,000 – $4,000,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/20-Bent-Street-BRIGHTON
7 St Ninians: Nick Johnstone. Private Sale. In excess of  $3,500,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/7-St_Ninians-Court-BRIGHTON
292 New: Brian Devlin and Regina Schmidt: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. Up for sale for less than a month, this grand looking home was purchased today for around $9,000,000. A very impressive block just down from Brighton Grammar.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/292-New-Street-BRIGHTON
22 Tennyson: Marcus Gollings. Private Sale. In excess of $5,000,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/22-Tennyson-Street-BRIGHTON
3/9 Glyndon: Stewart Lopez: Private Sale: Mid $3,000,000’s
James Rating: Click here http://www.james.net.au/rating/3/9-Glyndon-Avenue-BRIGHTON
6 Head: Jeremy Fox: bought well after auction: Around $7,000,000
Full Rating click here: http://www.james.net.au/rating/6-Head-Street-BRIGHTON
19 Wellington: Stewart Lopez and Sturt Hinton. Private Sale after Auction. Over $4,000,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/19-Wellington-Street-BRIGHTON
3 Wellington: Stewart Lopez and Sturt Hinton. Private Sale after Auction. Around $3,900,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/3-Wellington-Street-BRIGHTON
5/23 St Ninians: Stewart Lopez and Sturt Hinton. Private Sale under $5,000,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/5/23-St_Ninians-Road-BRIGHTON
6 Seacombe: Ian Jackson: Private Sale over $4,500,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/6-Seacombe-Grove-BRIGHTON

Camberwell
8 Canterbury: Peter Mitchell: bought after auction: Around $3,000,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/7926/8-Canterbury-Road-CAMBERWELL/

Canterbury
42 Wattle Valley: Richard Winneke: bought after, in excess of $3,426,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8807/42-Wattle_Valley-Road-CANTERBURY/
23 Chaucer: James Tostevin: bought after over $3,850,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8221/23-Chaucer-Crescent-CANTERBURY/

Elwood
31 Ormond: Marcus Gollings: Expressions of Interest: Bought over $4,000,000
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/31-Ormond-Esplanade-ELWOOD

Hawthorn
2 Berkeley: Rob Vickers-Willis: Bought at Auction: Bought over $3,000,000
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/2-Berkeley-Street-HAWTHORN
24 Coppin: Jock Langley: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. This basic house, on an acre on the river in Hawthorn’s river precinct, has been on the market for well over a year and had quotes at $15m then 12m and then…. A number of agents have worked on this. I went through this home last year and finally Jock Langley has got a sale through under $10m. It is a great block, its only fault until today was its price tag.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/24-Coppin-Grove-HAWTHORN
36 Chrystobel: Lisa Jarrett: Private Sale after auction: In excess of $3,500,000
James Auction Report: http://www.james.net.au/rating/36-Chrystobel-Crescent-HAWTHORN

Hawthorn East
49 Harcourt: James Tostevin: Bought After, over $7,200,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8661/49-Harcourt-Street-HAWTHORN_EAST/

Ivanhoe
59 Studley: David Oster: Under the hammer: $4,300,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8989/59-Studley-Road-IVANHOE/

Kew
63 Walpole: James Tostevin: Bought Before Auction: In excess of $3,000,000.

Malvern
24 Somers: Jeremy Fox: Under the hammer: $6,160,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8705/24-Somers-Avenue-MALVERN/
15 A Sorrett: Andrew Hayne: Week or so after Auction: Over $3,500,000
James Auction Report: http://www.james.net.au/rating/15a-Sorrett-Avenue-MALVERN
Elizabeth: Marcus Chiminello Off the plan $3,300,000
6 Bonview: John Bongiorno: Bought Afterwards in excess of $3,600,000: Bidderman 3
James Video Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/video/?vid=305
11 Moorakyne: Michael Gibson: Under the Hammer: $4,000,000: Bidderman: 3
James Rating and Auction Report: http://www.james.net.au/rating/11-Moorakyne-Avenue-MALVERN
17 Thanet: Mark Wridgway: Before Auction: Bought over $3,500,000.
James Home Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/17-Thanet-Street-MALVERN

Malvern East
31 Finch St: Andrew McCann: Under the Hammer: $3,360,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8376/31-Finch-Street-MALVERN_EAST/

South Yarra
38 Park: Warwick Anderson: Quote $3,500,000 plus: James Rating 725/1000: Bought After Auction: Above $3,000,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8476/38-Park-Place-SOUTH_YARRA/
19 Acland: Greg Herman: 4 bidders: Bought under the hammer: $3,600,000
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/6886/19-Acland-Street-SOUTH_YARRA/

St Kilda
Two Block of Flats:
4 Church: Claudio Perruzza: Bought at Auction $3,400,000
16 Charnwood: Adam Joske: Bought at Auction $6,060,000

Toorak
11 Cole: Ross Savas: Private Sale: Quote $8,000,000 plus reported as bought for above that figure
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/11-Cole-Court-TOORAK
2/23 Tintern: Ross Savas: Private Sale: Quote $5,000,000 plus reported as bought for above that figure
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/2/23-Tintern-Avenue-TOORAK
8 Macquarie: Jeremy Fox: Private Sale after auction. $6,400,000.
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/8-Macquarie-Road-TOORAK
4 Forrest Court: Peter Kudelka and James Scarff: Bought after auction $4,050,000: Bidderman 0
James Auction Report: Click here http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8829/4-Forrest-Court-TOORAK
1 Hopetoun: Justin Long: Bought after auction: Over $5,500,000: Bidderman 0
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8671/1-Hopetoun-Road-TOORAK/
803 Orrong: Warwick Anderson: Private Sale $4,500,000
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/803-Orrong-Road-TOORAK
1a Como: Greg Herman: Private Sale: Over $6,400,000

Please Note: The $3m+ market can be a very shadowy one at times with regards to what is bought, if indeed it was actually bought and what price (cash and/or otherwise) was paid. At all times the prices we outline are never truly confirmed until they can be viewed six to nine months later at the Government stamp duties office – however we don’t publish without feeling there is a high degree of truth. This is why as buyer agents when pricing homes we never make decisions on one buy alone and why true land and building values plus an overall knowledge of all buys is vital in calculating correct market value.  At this price level it is also a very private world and we respect that when trying to balance market transparency v individual privacy. We accept we don’t get it right every time but we do try. We never discuss buyer/seller personalities; we do not reveal intimate details to the wider press and we do not disclose full details publicly where the source has asked us not to. Our sources are not just the selling agent, but underbidders, our own advocates, REIV, our auction reporters and other agents not connected with the sale/buy. If you aware of an error or omission please email mal@james.net.au and we will adjust – you will be treated confidentially if you wish.

Malvern 24 Somers: Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar: Bought for $6,160,000 under the hammer: 3 bidders: Crowd of 90.

Special Report on the $3m market: The $3m+ is back, after its self induced May hiccup which lead to a very quiet winter.

There have been over 50 buys in the month of September at this level and the buyers are coming from all quarters. Lets pick one of the segments – around $4million. We have bought 3 homes at this specific level in the last few weeks: all were classic period homes on land sizes over 1000 square metres  – two were post auction (eg after a pass-in) and one was off market (Black St Brighton). However the interesting thing was the buyer profile. One was a change of life family; one had a growing family and needed space and one was an expat family returning from overseas. If you look at our client lists this is a fairly accurate representation of whom we are looking for. In the last case – expats returning from overseas – Brighton high end agent Peter Bourbaud thinks “this group will push the market along for the next few years, after a couple of very quiet years from the expat community”. We concur, we conducted very little in business terms last year for expats, however there has been a distinct pick up in action from expats returning home in 2010.

The James September $3m+ Report, with all reported $3M+ boughts and solds can be viewed from the home page (next to market insight and below Buyer Masterclass) or click here

If you are new to the $3m market you may find these charts below (using 2007 to 2010 VG, REIV and James Databases) of some value as they help to show how the overall $3m+ market works.

• The two powerhouse $3m+ suburbs are Brighton and Toorak (see 2009 results graphed below); however they behave quiet differently from each other (see median graph). But more on that another time.
• More $3M+ is bought later in the year than early. (2009 graphed below)
• There are some real name streets around and there are some falsies (where you pay top dollar and stand out like a beacon)
• Less than a quarter (25%) of $3m+ homes sell under the hammer at auction (click on September Graph below)
• A lot more activity is off market (not advertised) at this $3m+ level than any other price point eg sub $3m.

Please click on the any of the graphs below to bring them up to full size

Agent Comments on the $3m+ market

• “Prior to the school holiday period there was some renewed strength in $3m+ market due to stabilisation of things after the election and the shortage of good quality homes. With the spring market in full swing it will be very interesting to see what happens with the increase of volume, but if the enquiry rates are anything to go buy October will be a strong months of sales.” Andrew Hayne of Marshall White Malvern
• “The 3 mill plus market is strong, we are expecting a big finish to spring in the 3 plus market for good family homes.” Nick Johnstone of JP Dixon Brighton
  
• “There seems to have been a resurgence of buyer enquiry for the upper end properties recently.  It will be interesting to see if this follows through once we see increased stock levels after the school holidays and round 2 of the Grand Final.” Julian Augustini of Hodges Brighton
• Andrew Baynes from Kay and Burton South Yarra “Last Monday was my busiest auction sign up day for me in 10 years”

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