Monday 28th November – 57 Cole Brighton ( Peter Kennett of Hocking Stuart). A family home with some floor plan issues that has been on the market for sometime, has been bought after a few interested parties were gathered together in an Expressions of Interest Campaign and one person popped up over $3,000,000. We rated the home 757/1000 mainly on its position and land characteristics.

Big auction, big crowd and big bidder numbers: 98-100 Mont Albert, Canterbury, Alastair Craig (Jellis Craig), under the hammer, $3,380,000, 6 bidders

End of Spring Market Summary

Bidderman: The stats over the last 3 weeks (below) highlight in our opinion exactly what has been happening to a large extent all year. Two weeks ago we reported 27 bidders on 5 homes and 14 bidders combined on the other 21 auctions. Last week it was the same story – 17 bidders on 4 homes auctioned and only 15 bidders combined on the other 21 homes that we reported on. This week we had 26 bidders on 7 homes and 24 bidders combined on the other 27 homes we reported on. If you are hot, you can be really hot and if you’re not then you need a panadol and a good agent.

Clearance Rates: Basically on auction day you have a 50/50 chance of selling – although demand for $3m+ properties has weakened in last fortnight.

Stales: (long term pass-ins) The market is acting on properties where prices have been adjusted, and continuing to pass over homes where the vendor remains committed to a price rather than a result. One month after Super Saturday a full third of the homes that went to auction still had not been sold. It is not true for agents to say they are all being cleaned up. They are not.

Expressions of Interest – are no different to auctions. At the Top End last month we nominated 8 homes to monitor as having Expressions of Interest closing dates either side of the Melbourne Cup. Of those eight, four (50%) have sold around the proposed closing time and the others remain on the market. The four that have sold were goodies and they got exceptional prices. The other four – well, they remain unattached to a buyer.

The Top 3 things buyers can do to take advantage of what is on offer before Christmas.

1)   Find: Off markets, stales, rebadgers and pass-ins. Many homes are being re-presented after failed campaigns early in the year. If they failed on price then, why pay it now? Off markets are back in season as many recent buyers would be keen to see a quiet sale before Christmas rather than wait till 2012 – there may be a bargain there. Stales – don’t give up. If it’s a home you like then revisit with a  written offer – even if the asking price is baloney. Rule One in this market: if you don’t ask, you don’t get. Man up and put the offer in!

2)  Assess Price: Use past sales carefully and change their meaning – sales of six months ago are now the ceiling prices, not the floor prices (as in previous years). The market is going backwards in price, not forwards (A graders excepted).

3)   Negotiate: As buyers if you want to negotiate to your advantage while still maintaining a reasonable level of risk in terms of buying versus missing out on the home, then you need to be able to apply the Fisherman’s Friend Wet Fish Slap on overpriced homes. You know the commercial – where she gives him an uppercut with a wet fish. If the price is baloney and you are not going to pay it, don’t walk away – you may be doing yourself and the seller a disservice, as you may in fact be the best buyer. Go and hit the seller with the Fisherman’s Friend Wet Fish Slap and then apply pain relief afterwards. This is exactly what our selling agent friends have been doing for years in post auction negotiations. They hit you hard with a big number, then they offer to relieve your pain (slightly). So if you have a sensible price, go and offer it – you may well be the seller’s best deal and if you walk away because of your timidity, then both you and the seller lose. If aFisherman’s Friend Wet Fish Slap is not your caper consider hiring a professional who can help you – it’s invigorating. And of course if it doesn’t have the desired effect – consider moving on.

Saturday 26th November Weekend Auction Results

Bought

• 98-100 Mont Albert Road Canterbury (Alastair Craig) – $3,380,000 – 6 bidders
• 25 Grange Road Kew (James Tostevin) – Around $3,000,000 – 1 bidder
• 24 Anderson Malvern East (Heather Elder) – Around $3,000,000 – 2 bidders

Passed-In

• 2 Collins St Brighton – $2,975,000 – 0 bidders
• 1022 Malvern Road Armadale – $2,800,000 – 0 bidders
• 21 Wattle Road Hawthorn – $3,050,000 – 0 bidders
• 68 Molesworth Kew – $4,600,000  – 0 bidders
• 20 McGregor Middle Park – $3,200,000 – 0 bidders

Friday 25th November – 58 Howitt Road, Caulfield North has been bought for a record Caulfield price according to the effervescent Ross Savas of Kay and Burton. The price;  well can say they were talking $6 million and the calibre of the home leads us to conclude they would have got that, so over is definitely not out of the question. This was a truly great home, our James Home Rating of 838/1000 is one of the highest we have scored this year. The market is obviously still recognising and paying for great quality.

Thursday 24th November – 25 Montalto Avenue Toorak ( Nicole Gleeson) – Basically land only for the area as the home requires a serious reno – passed-in last Saturday on a lone vendor bid of $3,450,000 was bought today for an undisclosed amount.

Wednesday 23rd November – 58 Glyndon Rd, Camberwell (Jock Langley) Private Auction  BOUGHT over $3,300,000: Attended this mid week private auction  just in case a bargain was to be had. No bargain, with a very healthy Tim Derham – Abercromby’s auction – 3 bidders and passed in for $3,300,000 and bit – deal was negotiated after wards in excess of that figure. Strong result – this is still outer Camberwell!
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Big home in the “almost ‘burbs” on 2100 sqm with tennis court – it’s all about the land. Set down for a private auction as opposed to a public one – (mmmmm, that’s an interesting twist) on November 23rd. What is the land per sqm at this size worth? How many other competitors do I really have in this market? Am I better to go before and if not successful how will I manage a Jock Langley pass-in?

Monday 21st November – 6-8 Myrtle St Brighton (Barb Gregory). This last weekend’s biggest auction – and another private one at that, was completed at a price over the quote of $6,000,000. So another solid Golden Mile sale with land in excess of 1600 sqm plus some solid improvements and another good result for Marshall White in Brighton. While private auctions are very secretive they seem to meet the vendors requirements for privacy and a buyers liking for transparency – perhaps a way of the future for some key homes.

Subdued mood: Toorak, 25 Montalto Ave, Jason Scillio (Kay & Burton), passed-in $3,450,000, no bidders

Saturday 19th November: At auction only two out of ten were reported as sold at the $3m+ level.

• 19 Florence St, Kew (Diana Healy) – Bought for over $3,600,000
• 2 Monomeath Pl, Canterbury ( Richard Earle) – Bought after for over $3,100,000

Pass-Ins at

• 47 York St, Kilda West – $3,800,000
• 24 Monaro Rd, Kooyong – $3,500,000
• 25 Montalto Ave, Toorak – $3,450,000
• 9 Berry St, East Melbourne – $3,200,000
• 11 Victor Ave, Kew – $3,000,000
• 2 Snooks Crt, Brighton – $3,000,000
• 26 Stawell St, Kew – $2,950,000
• 6-8 Myrtle St Brighton – undisclosed

Overall quite a weak day – although having been through many of those pass-ins I can say that a number were not the most exciting of offerings.

Friday 18th November: The Christmas Stock Flood has really gained some momentum in the last week with a large influx of homes coming onto the market right now – especially at the Top End (look at our stock graphs in Market News). This has to be good for buyers. Where in recent times our main role has been finding quality homes – the bulk or our work has moved to assessment and negotiation. Price is such a movable beast right now and it’s good, as a buyer, to have an open mind and strategies (within your acceptable risk v reward parameters) to take advantage of the lay of the land. Please that is not to say that all the goodies are being given away – far from it – but once a home falls into that certain category (eg stale, overpriced or a B grader) then significant discounts are possible – if the vendor wants to sell. Yes you need to know what to do, how to do it and when to do it – but professional advice can fill that knowledge gap for you. Two properties purchased in the last fortnight or so $700,000+ off the original asking price and that was a $3m home and $300,000+ off the original asking price and that was a $2,000,000 home. The market is operating normally – however now, more so than at any other time this year, it is a true buyers’ market – Great Choice and Negotiable Prices. Buy Well.

Wednesday 15th November: 4 Kiers Court Caulfield North (Phillip French)  one of the more distinctive homes I have seen this year is now reported as sold in excess of $3,000,000. Our James Home Rating was 684/1000 (see below) and what the owners did with a difficult block was in my opinion, amazing and the price was solid. Also a huge block at 181 Gipps St East Melbourne (Sarah Case) over 1000 sqm was bought undisclosed (over $5,000,000) and finally to complete the RT Edgar trifecta 29 Loch St, St Kilda West (Anthony Grimwade) almost 1000 sqm plus period home was bought for $3,800,000.

Tuesday 14th November: 3/61 Nepean Highway Aspendale (Rowan Thompson) which we reported as passed-in on the weekend, has now been bought for $3,150,000.

TOORAK 49 Mathoura Road, Justin Long, 4 Bidders, $5,220,000

Saturday 12th November: 3 biggies – 2 bought and 1 passed in.

47 Kinkora Rd, Hawthorn, Peter Batrouney (Jellis Craig); Under the hammer, $5,660,000, 4 bidders
Grace Park, north-facing rear, big land and beautiful period home. Some may say a drover’s dog could sell this on a sunny day, but that would be unfair on Peter Batrouney and Campbell Ward. This writer knows for sure we will get a first rate performance and in all likelihood a very solid result. About 120 have gathered in the back yard and we begin with a vendor bid of $5,000,000. Quickly in $50,000s between Bidder 1 and Bidder 2 we reach $5,300,000 and a half time break. Two more bidders join in and it’s on the market at $5,500,000. A few more bids and it’s all over at $5,660,000. A typical successful Peter Batrouney and Campbell Ward / Grace Park auction.

49 Mathoura Road Toorak, Justin Long: Under the hammer, $5,220,000, 5 bidders
Justin Long is a very experienced and capable auctioneer and he needed to be today as he was put under pressure by bidders constantly trying to reduce the bids he was calling for. He held firm time and time again, and in the end the vendors would have to think (whether they were happy with the price or not) that without Justin’s skill and endeavours, this property might not have been sold this weekend. Five bidders all with their own individual strategies locked horns for 45 minutes involving breaks and multiple “is it on the market?” questions. The opening bid was $4,000,000, the property declared on the market at $4,950,000 and eventually bought under the hammer for $5,220,000.

Biggest Pass In: 3/61 Nepean Hwy, Aspendale, Rowan Thompson (RT Edgar); Passed in $3,000,000, 1 bidder
The excitement was in the air and the house was buzzing with people enjoying the sunshine and the stunning panoramic view of the beach literally on the doorstep.  With only 500 beach front homes in Melbourne, explained auctioneer Rowan Thompson to the large crowd of 100, the “international standard resort style property” represented  a wonderful opportunity.  Mr Thompson opened proceedings with a vendor bid of $2,800,000 and sought $100,000 rises.  With Mr Thompson’s encouragement, a bidder from the crowd obliged with a bid of $2,900,000.  A vendor bid of $3,000,000 followed and despite Mr Thomson’s best efforts, there was no further bidding on the day and the property was passed in on the vendor bid.

Friday 11th November: This is a typical week at the Top End for me. I have been through the following homes, given them a James Home Ratings (not for public display), calculated buyer value and price ranges and noted a few negotiation strategy issues each home may present when attempting to maximise buyer outcomes:

PRICE: $3,000,000+ (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 7 Linacre Road, Hampton, (Jenny Dwyer)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Complex family home with water views (quality ones of Yacht Club), multiple living areas, 5 bedrooms on one level, dual staircases, basement and all on 635 sqm in one of Melbourne best inner seaside precincts. Price – that will be interesting as will the method of sale – both rare birds for this part of the world right now.

PRICE: $5,250,000 (Asking Price)
POSITION: 29 Seymour Grove, Brighton (Ian Jackson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: North-facing rear, brand-new build on a big block around 1,000 sqm. Upstairs is very good, perhaps a lift was needed at this price. It’s to a formula and one that always sells when buyer meets seller or vice versa on price – that meeting price – well that is the big question? I remember going to the land auction around the start of the GFC (early 2008) and it was bought quite well at $2,100 per sqm – bought quiet well, considering what other knockdowns in this street and Wolseley had gone for, a short time before this auction.

PRICE: $8,000,000 ish (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 18 Fitzroy St, Kilda (Michael Gibson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Has already received a lot of publicity due to its current owner and the facade photograph is wonderfully enticing. A home of pluses and minuses for different family types. One of the real pluses for some families would be the rooftop pool – spectacular is an understatement. Location is also smack bang in the middle of the action. Building was an advertising agency office in a previous life – although much of the work was already done when this last sold (twice in 2004 between $3,000,000 and $4,000,000) .

PRICE: $6,500,000 plus (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 21 Isabella Grove, Hawthorn (Scott Patterson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: It’s a trip back in time. The entrance really looks like a movie set from Charles Dickens (love the dome). One of the most powerful views for me was actually through the kitchen window of what would have been servant’s quarters – the form the steps take going back up across the road stick in my mind. The home itself is obviously one for specific tastes and you will have a few issues to get your head around if you are going to be the buyer – but that could be well worth the mental effort.

PRICE: Circle $10m to $12m (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 1 Harcourt St, Hawthorn East (James Tostevin)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Most “in the trade” would describe this as a big thumper and the agent quote estimate says you are going to need a big wallet to match. Valuing this would require an open mind and purchasing well, would require a firm base on goals and a flexible strategy to test on many levels. The house – well – it’s not about the house, there are bones to work with. No, in my opinion it is all about is the land and more to the point the shape of the land and where the home sits and what you want and can do within its limitations. So is the land worth the $sqm of  say no 49 Harcourt which had two bidders at auction and went for over $7,200,000 last year or is there a discount involved? Challenges for all parties if this is to be a deal.

PRICE: In the picture you can see next door which was also subject to a similar campaign recently at a similar asking price tag ($20,000,000 to $30,000,000). The price –  if it does indeed sell – will be a source of conjecture, supposition and innuendo for months to come just like Shakespeare Grove was last year and just like when this home was so famously bought and sold last time (a decade ag0).
POSITION: 1 Towers Rd, Toorak (Michael Gibson)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Wow – if you can work out a way to get through this home you should. An art deco masterpiece with pool, tennis court, contemplative gardens all on a Toorak acre. The entrance and view from the kitchen are very powerful. At this price level, there are many more questions, but it always comes back to one final one, when the others have been answered – How can I buy this for the best possible price? Your answer may well be determined by the relationships you keep.

PRICE: Around $3million is Agent Jock’s quote
POSITION: 58 Glyndon Rd, Camberwell (Jock Langley)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: Big home in the “almost ‘burbs” on 2100 sqm with tennis court – it’s all about the land. Set down for a private auction as opposed to a public one – (mmmmm, that’s an interesting twist) on November 23rd. What is the land per sqm at this size worth? How many other competitors do I really have in this market? Am I better to go before and if not successful how will I manage a Jock Langley pass-in?

PRICE: Around $4,500,000 (Agent Quote)
POSITION: 68 Molesworth St, Kew (Hamish Tostevin)
PROPERTY: James Home Rating Excerpt: This is a home of thought and quality – and with a price tag quoted over $4.5m if you are going to be the buyer you are going to have to put some thought and quality into how to go about this – such as, what is this home really worth? It is a very specific home – big in size, lifts, views, a lot of WOW. Attention to detail is obvious. But what about heating and cooling and sun with all that glass. Land value is not hard but home value – is this a $1.5m or a $2.5m build and will that matter? One of those buys where process is so very important if you want to buy well. A rare offering for the modern home buyer and worthy of serious consideration.

Grand Sale Land Sale in Kew - Tender Closing Today (Friday 11th November). It will be interesting to see what happens at 6-12 Madden Grove Kew on this mini-subdivision of 4 blocks around 600 sqm each. Mark Dayman and Antony Woodley taking in the offers and have expectations above $2,000 per square metre.

Thursday 10th November: Another three strongish Toorak buys in the last week.

• 16 Kenley Court Toorak (Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton) – Bought for over $12 million for nearly 2000 sqm of land a very substantial home. James Home Rating 779/1000. Excerpt from James Home Rating:

The big pluses for me are the court location, the look from the street and the gardens – tranquil, serene, sanctuary – all those words that are antonyms to stress. This is what the gardens are, and for me they are the major selling point to 16 Kenley. The home, well for most of us (i.e. those who can’t afford it) it’s a rare and magnificent home. However for buyers at this level I think they will find some issues with the floorplan – especially the position and connection between the kitchen and living area  and the front staircase so close to the front door. This seems an afterthought and does detract a little from the majesty of the entrance. Walking through the home I keep thinking of the gardens, the location and the land size more so than the building. However if you can afford 16 Kenley then you can afford to make the changes you want. And so, like almost offerings at this level in Toorak, it comes back to: when do you want to buy, what is available, what is the right exchange price and how best do you go about the process?

• 24-26 Balmerino Ave, Toorak (Justin Long of Marshall White and Hugh Hardy of Bennison Mackinnon) – 1850 sqm of land inc tennis court. Passed in at the Thursday afternoon auction for $7,000,000 and was bought immediately afterwards for an undisclosed amount. As I went through this home it felt mostly about the land and the sweeping views, however I suppose that is the way with almost all Toorak homes. The end result was $3,800 per sqm approx.
• 4 Lisbuoy Court Toorak (Nicole Gleeson and Michael Gibson) – Townhouse with some land, bought for over $4,000,000.

Greg Costello and Tim Wilson in full swing on the Brighton Golden Mile - continuing to sell at $10,000 per sqm. See report below

Week Ending November 5th: Has the action returned after the September excitement was followed by an early October siesta? We think yes – it is back. People do have cash and they are parting with it when they find the right home. In the last 10 days at least 9 homes over $4 million have been bought and sold.

Some Auction Results this weekend

• Biggest Sale: 2 Mytton Grove, Brighton, Greg Costello (RT Edgar); Under the hammer $6,050,000, 2 bidders
  Brighton Golden Mile Beachfront – these are four words that mean money. In recent times that has meant $8000 to $10,000 per sqm – at least at the northern end. A question our auctioneer Greg Costello asked in his opening spiel was “is this southern part of the Golden Mile more highly regarded than the northern part due to the activity on the beachfront?” Personally, as I run past here every day I think yes, but the auction result will tell us for sure. With the blue sea as our backdrop I’m expecting an exciting auction – irrespective of the market this stuff always sells. Greg Costello is conducting proceedings in front of a small crowd of 30. We start with an opening bid of $4,850,000 from Bidder one. $5,000,000 comes in from Bidder two strongly – solid bid. $5,100,000 from a third bidder – who as it turns out was with Bidder one – so we don’t count him – strange strategy that one. Anyway with a fair bit of action we move up to $5,600,000 in various amounts and then to $5,750,000. At all times Bidder two looks in control and is bidding very well and with some intimidation without being over the top. Normally Greg Costello is in excellent form but today was not his best day with bid retention and there are a number of confusing referrals back to his penciller for clarification. At $5,900,000 the “is it on the market?” question was asked, and after a quick referral, an affirmative answer is returned. There are two more decisive bids from Bidder two and its all his at $6,050,000. Loved the winning bidder’s style – aggressive and sensible and much better than his opponent and also many so called professionals that I have witnessed recently – well done sir – we have a job for you here if you care to apply. (Mal James)

• Other Brighton Golden Mile Results: 2 Mytton at $6,050,000 divided by 613 sqm = $9,869 per sqm or almost identical for previous absolute beachfront sqm rates over the past year (which have maintained themselves in the last year and increased on previous high water marks). 8 Moule Avenue (David Hart) is a classic Golden Mile address (but not absolute beachfront) and sold this weekend for $2,310,000 or $3,510 per metre. On first glance that is not expensive, but it is in fact not too far off previous Golden Mile sqm rates. A third Golden Mile property 15 Dudley St (Regina and Brian) sold for in excess of its pass-in figure at $4,400,000 which, again considering the house was nothing other than a nice facade, was a very, very solid result.
• Biggest Pass In: 58 Kooyongkoot Rd, Hawthorn, Scott Patterson (Kay & Burton); passed in, $3,400,000, no bidders
  Could you find a better setting for a Melbourne Spring auction? A tranquil backyard by the pool! In front of around 60 people, auctioneer Scott Patterson gave his usual professional best to attract some crowd bidding but this was to no avail. The property passed in after two vendor bids – $3,300,000 and $3,400,000 respectively – and remains for private sale. (Adam Woledge)
• Bidderbuzz Auction: 15 Chastleton Ave, Toorak, Warwick Anderson (RT Edgar); Under the hammer, $4,135,000, 4 bidders
  Spirited bidding after a slow start was a welcome sequence at the auction of this single level home in Toorak. A crowd of 80 neighbours chatted quietly throughout the action, eagerly anticipating the value to be determined by the market. After opening on a vendor bid of $3,400,000 and the declaration that the council had valued the property at $3,700,000, auctioneer Warwick Anderson tried to keep pace with the determined 4 bidders. After the second vendor referral, Warwick announced the property on the market at $3,800,000 but the strong bidding continued, with bidder number 4 securing the home at $4,135,000. (Gina Kantzas)

RT Edgar: Has had a pretty solid time with 8 properties selling over $2 million in less than a week, including an off market at 68 Walsh St believed to be around $4 million, not mentioned in above dispatches.

SOUTH Yarra, 17 Acland St: The maestro, Gerald Delany (Kay & Burton) in action. Passed in, $3,250,000, no bidders.

Key Points:

• Toorak 17 Lansell with Lisa Jarrett of Abercrombys sold mid week after being on the market since late last year
• Toorak 16 Cole St with Nicole Gleeson of Kay and Burton sold mid week after being on the market since late last year

Agent Q & A: Has the market changed since before Labour Day weekend?
Lachlan Fraser-Smith, BenMac, Armadale:” The main change in the market since Labour Day is that the quality of buyers at open for inspections is very good, however the numbers of people through opens has slowed after a busier than anticipated start to the year. The reasons for this are: as the year settles down after a typical February spike in prices, people have found out at open for inspections and attending the early auctions what they wanted to know about prices and have assessed the market and either go to auction themselves or sit still and stay where they are. Numbers of properties on the market has increased as well but there are still some very active buyers out and about so they quality of buyers is certainly still there. We have been seeing some very strong results between $1 million and $2 million in Armadale and between $3 and $5 million in Malvern and Malvern East.  We will see a reduction in properties coming onto the market going into the traditional Easter, Anzac day and school holiday period. This will, I believe, underpin the market for the homes that come on post Easter in May.”
Iain Carmichael, BenMac, Armadale:“The Stonnington market in recent weeks has performed well given slightly diminished bidding activity at many auctions. Pleasing elements from a vendor’s point of view is that sales are being made and that clearance rates in Stonnington continue to exceed the Melbourne-wide figures by up to 10% each week end. The trend for buyers to hold off bidding is puzzling as the great majority of properties auctioned are still sold for solid prices at or immediately after auction.  Stock levels are reasonably full and the market will test both vendor expectations and buyer depth in the weeks leading up to Easter. It will be interesting to observe whether buyers will continue to run the gauntlet and back themselves into post-auction negotiations and, in some cases, private auctions or whether the true transparency of the auction system will give consumers sufficient comfort to bid with confidence and buy ‘under the hammer’ or become the highest bidder to gain an exclusive seat at the negotiating table.”
Andrew Hayne, Marshall White, Armadale:“No I don’t think things have changed too much. The market has been pretty price sensitive for a while now, so provided vendor’s expectations are in line with the market then there shouldn’t be any problems selling. I am a big believer in each property sets its own market so each one has to be treated on an individual basis rather than generalize about market conditions or sentiments.”

ARMADALE, 2 Avondale Rd: Warwick Anderson (RT Edgar), Passed in, $1,950,000 no bids.

Big Crowds on Canterbury: 42 Wattle Valley. Bought After: Richard Winneke: Over $3,426,000: Photo courtesy Jellis Craig.

September Executive Summary:

Demand: Solid and increasing

• Reported Boughts: 46
• Bidderman: Substantial improvement in bidders per auction at the higher level. Random cross section of bidders. 1/3/2/1/3/1/3/2/2/3/3/3/2/1/0/0 for a month average of 1.875

Supply: New Stock Low

• Overhang from May however new stock is still light on at end of September and that which comes on at a reasaonble price is mostly being bought.

Price: Firming

• A number of stales (on market over 3 months) were purchased in Bayside reducing overhang – this will have an upwards effect on price if demand remains constant.
• Some new properties coming onto the market but new stock is still limited in Boroondara and Stonnington also encouraging price in an upwards direction.

Quote of the month: Stewart Lopez of Kay and Burton ” In this improving Upper End market, sellers are getting back the control that they lost with the stock splurge in May”

Highlights
Over $9 million
Hawthorn 24 Coppin: Jock Langley: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. This basic house, on an acre on the river in Hawthorn’s river precinct, has been on the market for well over a year and had quotes at $15m then 12m and then…. A number of agents have worked on this. I went through this home last year and finally Jock Langley has got a sale through under $10m. It is a great block, its only fault until today was its price tag.
Brighton 292 New: Brian Devlin and Regina Schmidt: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. Up for sale for less than a month, this grand looking home was purchased today for around $9,000,000. A very impressive block just down from Brighton Grammar.
Over $7 million
Toorak 11 Cole: Ross Savas: Private Sale: Quote $8,000,000 plus reported as bought for above that figure
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/11-Cole-Court-TOORAK
Hawthorn East 49 Harcourt: James Tostevin: Bought After: Over $7,200,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8661/49-Harcourt-Street-HAWTHORN_EAST/
Brighton 6 Head: Jeremy Fox: Sold well after auction: Around $7,000,000
Full Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/6-Head-Street-BRIGHTON

Bidderbuzz Auction of the Month
24 Somers Malvern: Jeremy Fox: Under the hammer: $6,160,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report and Rating: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8705/24-Somers-Avenue-MALVERN/
The sunfilled courtyard was a perfect setting for the Somers Avenue auction, with the lovely weather attracting a generous crowd of interested parties and onlookers alike. Auctioneer Jeremy Fox asked the crowd for an opening bid, but was disappointed with silence. It wasn’t long before a confident bid of $5,000,000 soon had the ball rolling though. Two parties continued with strong bidding, as the crowd watched on with baited breath. It was at $5,650,000 when another bidder keenly entered the fray, enquiring if the house was in fact yet ‘on the market’. There was clear buzz of anticipation amongst the crowd, as Mr. Fox conferred with the vendors, and finally confirming in the positive. Bidding continued fast and furiously between bidders, whilst the crowd remained captivated. The final knock-out bid brought on a genuine look of relief to the successful bidder. A truly entertaining auction, as you could hear echoed amongst the departing onlookers. (Nikki Hills)

Late Entries (Not Included in Stats)
Brighton Black St: Peter Bourbaud and Barb Gregory: Off Market: James Home Rating 852/1000. Price Undisclosed
Toorak 5 Myrnong: Darren Krongold and Sally Zelman: Private Sale: Price Undisclosed
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/5-Myrnong-Crescent-TOORAK
Armadale 23 Moorhouse: Gowan Stubbings: Expressions of Interest: Price over $5,000,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/23-Moorhouse-Street-ARMADALE

Apartments:
East Melbourne 144 Jolimont Road: Marcus Chiminello: Penthouse $3,250,000
Melbourne 301/401 St Kilda Road: Marcus Chiminello: Lucient $3,100,000

Albert Park
Albert Park 62 Beaconsfield: Kaine Lanyon: Quote $3,500,000 to $3,750,000: James Home Rating 655/1000: At Auction: Over $3,300,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/62-Beaconsfield-Parade-ALBERT_PARK

Armadale
81 Rose: Tim Derham: Bought Over $3,300,000. A  terrace home that needed a fair bit of work but did have rear access and was north facing to rear. Solid result.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/81-Rose-Street-ARMADALE
21 Adelaide: John Bongiorno auctioned this “bulldozer or significant rebuild” home at 4.30pm today. Bought for $3,130,000 or just over $4,000 per sqm. Bidderman 3. Heather Elder and Rae Tomlinson
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/21-Adelaide-Street-ARMADALE
28 Seymour: Joanna Nairn: Quote $3,500,000 plus: James Rating 682/1000: Bought After Auction: Around $3,500,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/9007/28-Seymour-Avenue-ARMADALE/
1 Myamyn: Andrew Macmillan: Under the hammer: $3,215,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8670/1-Myamyn-Street-ARMADALE/
3 Avalon: Ross Savas: Bought: Reportedly over $7,000,000, but not confirmed:
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/3-Avalon-Road-ARMADALE

Balwyn
Balwyn 23 Bevan: Richard James & William Chen: Quote $3,300,000 to $3,600,000: James Home Rating 742/1000: Bought After Auction: Around $3,500,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8932/23-Bevan-Street-BALWYN/

Brighton
10 Campbell: Peter Kennett. Private Sale after a Pass-In Auction. In excess of pass-in $3,850,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/10-Campbell-Street-BRIGHTON
20 Bent: Justin Follett. Private Sale . Within asking price range $3,800,000 – $4,000,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/20-Bent-Street-BRIGHTON
7 St Ninians: Nick Johnstone. Private Sale. In excess of  $3,500,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/7-St_Ninians-Court-BRIGHTON
292 New: Brian Devlin and Regina Schmidt: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. Up for sale for less than a month, this grand looking home was purchased today for around $9,000,000. A very impressive block just down from Brighton Grammar.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/292-New-Street-BRIGHTON
22 Tennyson: Marcus Gollings. Private Sale. In excess of $5,000,000.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/22-Tennyson-Street-BRIGHTON
3/9 Glyndon: Stewart Lopez: Private Sale: Mid $3,000,000’s
James Rating: Click here http://www.james.net.au/rating/3/9-Glyndon-Avenue-BRIGHTON
6 Head: Jeremy Fox: bought well after auction: Around $7,000,000
Full Rating click here: http://www.james.net.au/rating/6-Head-Street-BRIGHTON
19 Wellington: Stewart Lopez and Sturt Hinton. Private Sale after Auction. Over $4,000,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/19-Wellington-Street-BRIGHTON
3 Wellington: Stewart Lopez and Sturt Hinton. Private Sale after Auction. Around $3,900,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/3-Wellington-Street-BRIGHTON
5/23 St Ninians: Stewart Lopez and Sturt Hinton. Private Sale under $5,000,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/5/23-St_Ninians-Road-BRIGHTON
6 Seacombe: Ian Jackson: Private Sale over $4,500,000
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/6-Seacombe-Grove-BRIGHTON

Camberwell
8 Canterbury: Peter Mitchell: bought after auction: Around $3,000,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/7926/8-Canterbury-Road-CAMBERWELL/

Canterbury
42 Wattle Valley: Richard Winneke: bought after, in excess of $3,426,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8807/42-Wattle_Valley-Road-CANTERBURY/
23 Chaucer: James Tostevin: bought after over $3,850,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8221/23-Chaucer-Crescent-CANTERBURY/

Elwood
31 Ormond: Marcus Gollings: Expressions of Interest: Bought over $4,000,000
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/31-Ormond-Esplanade-ELWOOD

Hawthorn
2 Berkeley: Rob Vickers-Willis: Bought at Auction: Bought over $3,000,000
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/2-Berkeley-Street-HAWTHORN
24 Coppin: Jock Langley: Around $9,000,000 Private Sale. This basic house, on an acre on the river in Hawthorn’s river precinct, has been on the market for well over a year and had quotes at $15m then 12m and then…. A number of agents have worked on this. I went through this home last year and finally Jock Langley has got a sale through under $10m. It is a great block, its only fault until today was its price tag.
James Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/24-Coppin-Grove-HAWTHORN
36 Chrystobel: Lisa Jarrett: Private Sale after auction: In excess of $3,500,000
James Auction Report: http://www.james.net.au/rating/36-Chrystobel-Crescent-HAWTHORN

Hawthorn East
49 Harcourt: James Tostevin: Bought After, over $7,200,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8661/49-Harcourt-Street-HAWTHORN_EAST/

Ivanhoe
59 Studley: David Oster: Under the hammer: $4,300,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8989/59-Studley-Road-IVANHOE/

Kew
63 Walpole: James Tostevin: Bought Before Auction: In excess of $3,000,000.

Malvern
24 Somers: Jeremy Fox: Under the hammer: $6,160,000: Bidderman 3
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8705/24-Somers-Avenue-MALVERN/
15 A Sorrett: Andrew Hayne: Week or so after Auction: Over $3,500,000
James Auction Report: http://www.james.net.au/rating/15a-Sorrett-Avenue-MALVERN
Elizabeth: Marcus Chiminello Off the plan $3,300,000
6 Bonview: John Bongiorno: Bought Afterwards in excess of $3,600,000: Bidderman 3
James Video Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/video/?vid=305
11 Moorakyne: Michael Gibson: Under the Hammer: $4,000,000: Bidderman: 3
James Rating and Auction Report: http://www.james.net.au/rating/11-Moorakyne-Avenue-MALVERN
17 Thanet: Mark Wridgway: Before Auction: Bought over $3,500,000.
James Home Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/17-Thanet-Street-MALVERN

Malvern East
31 Finch St: Andrew McCann: Under the Hammer: $3,360,000: Bidderman 2
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8376/31-Finch-Street-MALVERN_EAST/

South Yarra
38 Park: Warwick Anderson: Quote $3,500,000 plus: James Rating 725/1000: Bought After Auction: Above $3,000,000: Bidderman 1
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8476/38-Park-Place-SOUTH_YARRA/
19 Acland: Greg Herman: 4 bidders: Bought under the hammer: $3,600,000
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/6886/19-Acland-Street-SOUTH_YARRA/

St Kilda
Two Block of Flats:
4 Church: Claudio Perruzza: Bought at Auction $3,400,000
16 Charnwood: Adam Joske: Bought at Auction $6,060,000

Toorak
11 Cole: Ross Savas: Private Sale: Quote $8,000,000 plus reported as bought for above that figure
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/11-Cole-Court-TOORAK
2/23 Tintern: Ross Savas: Private Sale: Quote $5,000,000 plus reported as bought for above that figure
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/2/23-Tintern-Avenue-TOORAK
8 Macquarie: Jeremy Fox: Private Sale after auction. $6,400,000.
James Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/8-Macquarie-Road-TOORAK
4 Forrest Court: Peter Kudelka and James Scarff: Bought after auction $4,050,000: Bidderman 0
James Auction Report: Click here http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8829/4-Forrest-Court-TOORAK
1 Hopetoun: Justin Long: Bought after auction: Over $5,500,000: Bidderman 0
James Auction Report: http://www.marketnews.com.au/auction-reviews/8671/1-Hopetoun-Road-TOORAK/
803 Orrong: Warwick Anderson: Private Sale $4,500,000
Undisclosed Rating: http://www.james.net.au/rating/803-Orrong-Road-TOORAK
1a Como: Greg Herman: Private Sale: Over $6,400,000

Please Note: The $3m+ market can be a very shadowy one at times with regards to what is bought, if indeed it was actually bought and what price (cash and/or otherwise) was paid. At all times the prices we outline are never truly confirmed until they can be viewed six to nine months later at the Government stamp duties office – however we don’t publish without feeling there is a high degree of truth. This is why as buyer agents when pricing homes we never make decisions on one buy alone and why true land and building values plus an overall knowledge of all buys is vital in calculating correct market value.  At this price level it is also a very private world and we respect that when trying to balance market transparency v individual privacy. We accept we don’t get it right every time but we do try. We never discuss buyer/seller personalities; we do not reveal intimate details to the wider press and we do not disclose full details publicly where the source has asked us not to. Our sources are not just the selling agent, but underbidders, our own advocates, REIV, our auction reporters and other agents not connected with the sale/buy. If you aware of an error or omission please email mal@james.net.au and we will adjust – you will be treated confidentially if you wish.

John "The Boss" Morrisby (Marshall White) can sense a sale in the air. 11 Evandale Rd, Malvern, bought after for an undisclosed amount over $1,550,000. Two bidders.

Key Points:

• Only two from the nine we attended were bought under the hammer, however five from the nine were bought after auction
• Big improvement on Clearance Rates on reasonable number of monitored auctions (21 $M+)

$3m+ sales this week:

• 1 Myamyn Street, Armadale – Andrew Macmillan of Bennison Mackinnon ($3,215,000)
• 6 Bonview Road, Malvern - Peter Bennison of Marshall White (0ver $3,600,000)
• 1 Hopetoun Road, Toorak – Justin Long of Marshall White (over $5,500,000)
• 15a Sorrett Avenue, Malvern (Passed In from several weeks ago) – Andrew Hayne of Marshall White (over $3,200,000)
• 19 Acland Street, South Yarra – Warwick Anderson and Greg Herman of RT Edgar ($3,600,000)
• 1a Como Ave, South Yarra – Michael Ebeling and Jeremy Fox of RT Edgar (over 6,o00,000)

A funny thing happened at an auction:
1 Hopetoun Rd, Toorak, John Bongiorno, Marshall White, Bought after, undisclosed amount:
Those that were there for the Hopetoun Road auction and left quickly would say “Hey Jack – nice suit, reasonable spiel – dud auction”. Those that hung around would say, when they heard it was bought and at a price believed to be well in excess of the vendor bid, would go “Hey Jack – nice suit, impressive post-auction manner, great result”. John Bongiorno and Justin Long, Marshall White.” (Mal James)

Agent Question: How are you finding the market?

Peter Kudelka, Kay & Burton: “People are sitting on their hands. If I hear one more time `I’ll wait and see’, then I think I’ll go mad! What are people waiting for? (Editor note: this was said with Peter’s typical dry sense of humour but it was an honest reflection – we like those that don’t spin) Buyers are out there and will make an offer, but not with the sense of desperation as per earlier in the year, and they feel if they don’t get it, then there will be another because the market is not really advancing. It has plateaued. Upper end apartments are still slow, except under a million. Investment stock is selling well. Apartment buying goes in waves and it is always interesting to see when the next wave is. The election has given people an excuse not to make decisions.”

Bidderbuzz Auction of the Day:
19 Acland St, South Yarra, Warwick Anderson, RT Edgar, 4 bidders: “After a day of pass ins and relatively low attendances, it was nice to attend an auction with multiple bidders all looking to secure a fine property in a much sort after area. Four keen bidders kept auctioneer Warwick Anderson’s attention as they showed their interest early, bidding strongly and quickly looking for that knock-out blow. It came fifteen minutes later for a price of $3,600,000.” (Guy Angwin)

Clearance Rates & Monitor Table:

We Only Buy Homes

John "Jack" Bongiorno (Marshall White) braves the wind and the rain at 6 Bonview Rd, Malvern. 3 bidders, bought after for an undisclosed amount in excess of $3,600,000.

Which way are things going? South Yarra 32-34 Park St: David Colbran and Warwick Anderson of RT Edgar: Passed In: $3,903,000: Bought Afterwards: 4 bidders

It’s 6pm Saturday and the James million-dollar-plus Clearance Rate on the 41 auctions we attended today was 61%.

Bidderman is 1.7 and it seems to have found a momentary level of some strength on large numbers of auctions.

We monitored 174 $million sales across 56 Melbourne suburbs.

Overall Clearance rate is 60% for those 174 auctions and in line with our James clearance rates – confirming again our James Clearance rate is an accurate measure of $Million Melbourne.

Considering the large amount on offer today and two of the next three weeks, it was a solid result for the market, albeit on falling clearance rates.

Summary Clearance Rates

• Bayside – 26 monitored – 12 bought – 46% clearance rate
• Boroondara – 46 monitored – 32 bought – 70% clearance rate
• Glen Eira – 18 monitored – 10 bought – 55% clearance rate
• Inner Melbourne (Yarra) – 11 monitored – 8 bought – 73% clearance rate
• Northern Melbourne – 22 monitored – 13 bought – 59% clearance rate
• Port Phillip – 22 monitored – 7 bought – 32% clearance rate
• Stonnington – 26 monitored – 18 bought – 69% clearance rate

Highlights

• Only 5% were not reported which shows a high degree of accuracy for clearance rates
• Increasing numbers of undisclosed results – maybe privacy or less than stellar numbers
• It is Port Phillip’s turn to not fire under the auction system
• Stonnington was surprisingly strong with Park St South Yarra (Warwick Anderson of RT Edgar) going passed $3,900,000 on multiple bidding and 81 Clendon Road Toorak (Gerald Delany of Kay and Burton) selling post auction north of $7,350,000 and 64 Burke Road Malvern East (Iain Carmichael of Benmac) selling before for 3,320,000 or $1366 per sqm for main road land. We think a number of Toorak and South Yarra vendors have wised up to the mood change and as a result clearance rates are improving.

In some segments, the market has dropped an estimated 5% in the past three weeks; in other segments, not at all. Fringe positioned, poor quality and hard to sell properties we feel could be as much as 10% off what they may have achieved in a frenzied April auction. This is of course opinion and hard to substantiate; but it is what we believe.

But our blanket headline is not 5%-10% price drop; it is mood change for all markets and some markets are patchy and some homes have experienced a drop in price.

Before we are yelled down by the lobbyists, let’s be specific.

First, there are several markets going quite well (for sellers), thank you very much.

$4 million-plus market
Evidence is emerging that this market, which we felt was in trouble a fortnight ago, is not as patchy as it seemed to us – and actually has some strength. Our correction: A more accurate read from us would have been that the auction system itself is frosty at this price level but there is activity outside the auction system (private sale, off market and expressions of interest). Michael Gibson of Kay and Burton agrees this is an accurate statement. He implied his company wouldn’t be selling $6 million-plus homes in Canterbury, Hawthorn; Scotch Hill; Grace Park and Flinders in the last month (and today at 81 Clendon Road Toorak, post-auction after a vendor bid of $7.35 million) if the $4 million and above market was declining substantially.

Note: Back in the GFC days during one six-month period (late 2008 – early 2009) at this same $6 million-plus price level, there were only nine recorded home sales in total (two in Brighton, one in Balwyn; and six in Toorak) for all real estate agencies in all of Melbourne.

$1 million – $1.75 million market in inner Melbourne
While there is definitely less bidder depth than a month ago, buyers may notice little change in end results on good properties going forward as there was such great depth pre-Easter. In fact, we were at an auction in Clarendon St Armadale (Madeline Kennedy and Andrew Hayne of Marshall White) where a nice little Edwardian single-fronted was bought for just over $1.2 million, and its twin sold earlier this month for $50,000 less. The $1 million to $1.75 million market is not seeing widespread price drops; despite less bidders per auction.

Shall we stop building the drama? Where do we feel the market has dropped?

$2 million to $4 million market
Is where the possible gains in 2010 have evaporated for a number (but not all) homes. On some good $3 million homes, we feel that the market view could be $100,000 to $200,000 less than Anzac Day and on poorer homes the drop feels more dramatic.

On what basis do we make such a claim? What about such and such, which went for $150,000 over reserve?

Clearance rates seem weaker at this price level; although today 10 from the 16 we witnessed in the $2 million to $4 million mark sold and that’s 62%. We feel the easing has been mainly in this market, but we have no evidence to suggest anything more than light price drops on some good homes.

Look at three Hawthorn homes we have been involved in, in the $3 to $4 million market in May 2010.

All three of these homes we assessed at $3.3 million under strong competition. All three of these auctioned homes had supporting evidence and independent outside agent opinion matching our $3.3 million assessments.

Yet the results were different (around $3.1 million on two occasions and $3.46 million on the other occasion). This had nothing to do with the agent (despite what their opposition may say). It may, of course, be our poor assessment of two but, if you assume we have some level of competence (others may argue), then it does hopefully give an insight into what we think is happening in the $2 to $4 million market in May 2010.

INCONSISTENT RESULTS and MINOR PRICE DROPS FOR GOOD HOMES

What does this mean for buyers going forward?

Opportunity!

There are $2 million to $4 million sellers out there that have to sell as they have bought and do not have the luxury of holding multiple homes. Interest rates are rising and business, as evidenced by the stock market index, is not as rosy as April.

Even those sellers that do not press the panic button may still be of a mind that things may not improve in their selling horizon and will, if they are listening to their selling agent, be more inclined to deal on a sensible offer rather than wait till the uninformed or ridiculous one arrives (which, increasingly from Anzac Day, is not happening).

A home that in April you would have paid $2.5 million for could now available to you for $2.3 million if:

1)      You know where to look

2)      You look

3)      You have some luck

4)      You put your hand up and then in your pocket.

Some important riders on our $2 million to $4 million blanket statement:

1)      It still needs to be the right home for you.

2)      It still needs to be a good home. Low land content, poor floor plans and badly positioned homes can become better in price but they never become good land content (above average growth), good floor plans (without serious money) or better positioned homes.

3)      Not all homes are adhering to our price drop assertion.

Overall Market Summary

At this stage, we have no feeling that the market corrections are anything more than normal market corrections. Market corrections come from market imbalances and the $2 million to $4 million property market has, in our opinion, been out of balance in May. Other markets are experiencing less bidder depth but not the imbalance and it’s not showing as much on the scoreboard.

While in all markets demand per auction has been steadily falling as evidenced by our Bidderman graph below; that is not necessarily as sinister as it may seem if you look at the supply graphs chart we keep on new million-dollar-plus stock to the market (graph 2). Those charts confirm what agents have been claiming – record months of auctions etc. Look at the up-swing in new stock (and we keep both on-market and off-market data) from 30 to 60 days ago. Big increases!

To some extent, these large increases in stock are the obvious reason why demand per home (Bidderman) has fallen; however, what is different to March and more in line with a normal market, is that the May 2010 market has not been robust enough to absorb all of this stock increase, particularly in the $2 million to $4 million mark. We have seen some seller stress for the first time since mid 2009. In addition the rest of the market seems to be leveling which can’t be a bad thing for all sides of the market.

Note: The above graph (2), implying lower stock numbers coming in over the last few days, may simply be a data entry timing issue from us – the guaranteed accurate stock level indicators for us are the 30 days and over figures and these are unseasonally high.

Three-month market outlook

$1 million to $1.75 million buyers.
There needs to be a big reduction in buyer overhang and a greater mood change resulting in an increased number of pass-ins before many good homes will reduce in price.

We think the current mood change and bidder depth has resulted in a leveling of price. Poorly supported properties are dropping in price.

As another aside there are an increasing number of pre-auction and off-market opportunities even at this level. By example, we bought a ripper little off-market one in Elwood last week at this price level. Good home – we were surprised it was offered as an off market (and, please, we don’t mean that negatively for either party).

$2 million to $4 million buyers
This is the most exciting and unpredictable market at present. Buyers, you need to turn up and keep turning up, because the opportunities to buy good homes are here and may not remain for long as you may think. The longer term big picture still shows population and migration pressures conducive to price increases.

At this level we suggest you need:

• Patience because some good homes are still selling very well.
• To cover a wider number of possibilities. There are off-markets and fringe properties that you are not aware of that are selling.
• To do your due diligence in two ways. Emotionally, is it right for you, and, importantly, is it for sale at $2.85 million or do you have to pay $3.15 million (financially).
• Advice. We’re biased. But with opportunities comes a number of decisions and a “no” decision can be just as harmful as a bad “yes” decision. All good decisions are either lucky or informed ones and it takes a lot of work to be informed for all decisions. So are you lucky or do you want to be informed? Possibly consider engaging a competent and ethical buyer agent experienced at this level to assist you.

Of course the market could also worsen (for sellers) but to assume that this market will continue to deteriorate after the forced sellers have gone is not a given; it is a guess. Going forward a number of $3 million owners have discretion and rather than put their home on the market or be in a forced sale they can renovate or hibernate. This will mean reduced choice for buyers which can start an upward price cycle on low quality stock – a buyers lament.

$4 million-plus buyers:
The proof is in the pudding. Sales at this level are up, surprising all of us. So demand is there (for now) and, while this level of home never attracts the bidder depth of further down the food chain, it also has fewer forced sellers than say the sub-million market unless business hits the wall. We don’t have as clear a take on this market as we thought we had, so, we’re keeping our powder dry and no longer passing  judgment until there is some more water under the bridge (love those clichés).

Buy happy

Mal

The Big Guns failed to fire at auction but didn't miss their target on the reload; with a post auction result in excess of the $7,350,000 Vendor Bid Pass-In. No bidders: Kay and Burton's Heavy Duty Gerald Delany, Mike Gibson and Ross Savas presiding.

Glen Iris 18 Clyde: "The Boss" John Morrisby letting the 3 bidders know they are a bit short at $1,385,000. Passed In but sure to be dealt with soon if the vendor knows the new market.

Stonnington was surprisingly strong with Park St South Yarra (Warwick Anderson of RT Edgar) going well past $3,900,000 on multiple bidding; 81 Clendon Road Toorak (Gerald Delany of Kay and Burton) selling post auction north of $7,350,000 and 64 Burke Road Malvern East selling before for 3,320,000 or $1366 per sqm for main road land.

The clearance rate was back to almost 70% and our recent frosty forecast for the next month in Toorak and South Yarra now seems as reliable as a weatherman in Melbourne’s spring.

No, no, no Toorak is not on fire – it’s just not quite as cold as we thought. And while sounding like a Kay and Burton salesman, please tell me how you ignore a claimed 80 sales at around $250,000,000 for the month. Either Michael’s having me on or the market has some real hidden strength, notwithstanding at less frenzied prices (that’s agent code for slight dip).

Why the auction turnaround – price adjustments. The vendors of late May have proven they can read and don’t wish to experience the early May vendors pain; so they have swallowed the price pill to become sellers and avoid remaining owners.

The market, the agents and the jungle drums have worked. What happens now becomes a function of stock levels going forward as some demand (for now) has been proven to be there.

Other interesting sales and (almosts)

• At an auction in Clarendon St Armadale (Madeline Kennedy and Andrew Hayne of Marshall White) where a nice little Edwardian single-fronted was bought for just over $1.2 million, and its twin sold earlier this month for $50,000 less. Hard to argue against that fact although it is only one fact.
• 12 Chesterfield Malvern (Rob Vickers-Willis of Abercromby’s and RT Edgar’s Will Cooper) which has been on the market longer than it takes to get an apology from a selling agent seems to  have some post auction momentum and should sell north of $3 million or over $3000 per sqm and a free house (which we like James Rating 667/1000)

All in all a humbling week or so for this Top End predictor.

Stonnington Auctions – 26 monitored – 18 bought – 69% clearance rate

 Make Good Decisions

Toorak 81 Clendon Road: Listen to Gerald's gospel my sons, bid now or bid afterwards; either way the vendor is getting your money. Gerald Delany, Mike Gibson and Ross Savas - K&B's true believers. Bought afterwards for over $7,350,000.

The studying face of RT Edgar’s Richard Hornidge and the Svengali like hands of Warwick Anderson. South Yarra: 281 Williams: Passed In with 3 bidders for $3,680,000.

We were scheduled to cover 36 auctions in many suburbs this weekend and 5 properties were bought before auction. The number of pre-sales has been slowly increasing recently and may reflect an emerging group of vendors who have become concerned/ realistic about the price to be obtained at the auction.

The price obtained with a pre-auction sale will not necessarily be less than that obtained at an auction but it will certainly lower the tension of not receiving a bid at the auction and then negotiating with a single buyer. An example of such a sale was 23 Fawkner  St South Yarra. This was a spectacular renovation of a cottage in an indifferent street with an indicative quote of $3,000,000 – $ 4,000,000. Three bidders were interested at over $3,500,000 and it sold for over $3,600,000. A good result for Ross Savas, and his Kay & Burton team.

The second type of Vendor could be the person who likes the spectacle of the auction but is willing to listen to his agent and set a realistic reserve. A sale will often occur and all parties walk away with contented smiles on their faces. An example of such a sale today was 9 Glen Road, Toorak. Although the property was passed in after a vendor bid of $3,100,00 and a genuine bid of $3,125,000, subsequent negotiations with Andrew Hayne of Marshall White allowed a buyer to purchase at $3,300,000. This property was a well renovated art deco house, with some issues – but one with a polished renovation.

The third type of vendor could be the person who loves the theatre of the auction, but who believes he knows the market better than the market. The auction may or may not produce a bid – but it will always be less  than satisfactory to the vendor. Recently there have been more auctions of this type and a number of sales agents are increasingly talking about vendors getting ahead of themselves and the sales agent is spending an increasing time in managing expectations (downwards).

We saw some good results in Stonnington today on homes we covered: 23 Fawkner Street( as detailed above), 45 Bruce Street, Toorak was bought through Rae Tomlinson of Marshall White for $3,100,000 ( essentially land value at $4354 psm) and a Glen Eagles town house at 68 A Nicholson South Yarra bought through Dean Gilbert of Marshall White for $1,205,000. Another good result was the purchase of  a terrace on Inverness Street Armadale through Anthony Grimwade and Jeremy Fox of R.T. Edgar which was bought for a strong price at a  shade over $1,660,000.

However below gives a representation of 29% reported bought on 17 scheduled auctions.

With the majority passed in on a Vendor Bid we estimate Bidderman across South Yarra and Toorak auctions was 0.5. One of the lowest on record (including 2008)

Luxury apartment sales should see some activity in the coming weeks with three – four good properties being recently listed. They include 1/23 Washington Street, Toorak ( Tim Wilson of R. T. Edgar); 2/9 Heyington Place Toorak ( Warwick Anderson of R. T. Edgar and Geoffrey Wilson of Geoffrey Wilson) and 2/ 45 A St Georges Road Toorak (  Gary Ormrod of Kay & Burton and Carla Fetter of BenMac). These properties are generally purchased on a $ price per square metre – which is likely to be in the range of $10,000 – $15,000 – depending on location, convenience and quality of construction plus of course emotion.

Make Good Decisions

Andrew Hayne in a good mood as 3 bidders fought out South Yarra: 68A Nicholson for $1,205,000.

Toorak;21 Glyndebourne: Warwick Anderson took a bid at $3m and then closed on a vendor bid of $3.350m

Little to report on the $m+ front interest after a huge October for most Stonnington agents. Plenty of choice over the next 3 weeks with 24 and 29 Auctions $1m+ auctions planned for the last 2 weeks in November.

Private Sales
36 Heyington Place Toorak was sold by Tom Staughton and Mike Gibson of Kay and Burton. Assuming a complete rebuild the result put land value at $3800 per sq metre. A handful of other private sales over $1m during this time in Stonnington.

Post Auction Results for Gasgoine Estate Blues of 2 weeks ago
47 Finch Street – sold afterwards (John Morrisby of Marshall White) and 74 Central Park road – sold afterwards (James Redfern of Marshall White )

Some of Todays Auctions
6 Brookville Toorak – Passed in – one bidder
A genuine opening bid of $2.6m was quickly countered by a vendor bid of $2.8m. Auctioneer Andrew MacMillan remained cool as a cucumber in the sweltering heat, but the property passed in without attracting any further bids. Crowd of 50 people.

21 Glyndbourne Toorak – Passed in – three bidders
Crowd of 40 people and three bidders. Genuine opening bid of $3m. The property passed in at $3.35m. Warwick Anderson Auctioneer

16 Vincent St Glen Iris – sold before for just over $1.8m in a board room auction through Andrew Hayne of Marshalle White.

At 6pm Saturday, the James Auction $m+ Auction Clearance Rate stands at a strong-for-sellers 78% of the 23 auctions we attended today.

Today, four clear messages came out of the results:

• The market is very fickle at the moment – up one week and down the next.
• If the market perceives the property is good, there are multiple buyers and a good price will be paid.
• The market in Stonnington today was bordering on white-hot.
• Right now, the higher you go the stronger it is (ceteris paribus).

Let’s look at some results:

15-17 Irving Road – 950 sq metre of land with a bulldozer home.  It was a who’s who of selling agents (Jock Langley, Andrew Hayne, Justin Long and Richard Mackinnon), Toorak land identities (Peter Gibson and crew) and many interested onlookers. Auctioneer Warwick Anderson from RT Edgar “kind of” repeated the result of Jeremy Fox from RT Edgar (Oct 08 – 23 Irving Road – 860 sqm  - five bidders – $4.9 million), with 15 Irving selling for $4.6 million with four bidders. Talking with Richard Mackinnon from Bennison Mackinnon afterwards, he pointed out that both were bulldozable homes and Oct land was auction-valued at $5703 per sq metre, whereas today land was auction-valued at $4842 per sq metre. So, yes, the market seems to be hotting up in the ultra top-end (eg $2.5 million-plus); however, prices have still come off again since last year in a number of cases.

An hour later, 3a Irving Road was re-auctioned by Castran and Gilbert, having failed at auction last year at $3.3 million reserve and it was sold post-auction at a tad under last year’s reserve by Tim Brown.

Ordering in a coffee and then moving another few hundred metres, we saw 9 St James, a great little cul-de-sac property, attract a big crowd but some strange auction tactics with a low pass-in and eventual sale believed to be around $4 million or $4926 per sq metre; again, a strongish - but not as high as might have been expected – result. Rae Tomlinson was the managing agent and conducted a strong post-auction negotiation process.

Taking a breather and some lunch, I was able to ring around colleagues, some who were bidding and some who were watching, and the same comment rang true. If the market liked it, there was multiple bidding, including nine bidders at Field St McKinnon,  four bidders at Benson Street Richmond, five bidders at Tooronga Road Malvern, three bidders at Mernda Road Kooyong, five bidders at Kardinia Road Glen Iris and 78 bids from five bidders at 21 Lambeth Ave Armadale.

I finished the day witnessing a throwback to 2007 days with seven bidders “going crazy” and paying $1.655 million for 36 McKinley Malvern. I’m not saying the buyer was crazy, just the strength and depth of the bidding was very strong. This house did need a $500,000-plus renovation and, after the price paid, that makes this a $2.2 million home in McKinley, which is in excess of sales in previously stronger years of completed, fully renovated Victorians. Still, the sellers are extremely nice and decent people and deserved a break to go their way.

That was Stonnington and that was the upper end. Bayside and Boroondara didn’t have as many high-end auctions and, from what we could see buying homes in those areas, was slightly easier than Stonnington. So, is Toorak leading the charge back? Only a scallywag would say that but the past two weeks of slightly quieter results have been given a real jolt and we are now back in February 2009 days as far as strength is concerned.

Of course, stock levels and quality are still the key. What was good has now been bought and, with precious little coming on beyond next week with Passover and Easter, buyers will need to be patient for a month or so if they haven’t found their dream home.

Apartments are really making me think at the moment and we have completed a specialist article below on what is really happening at the top end of the apartment market.

Adam reviews a Nonda Katsalidis house in Balwyn North in his architecture spot and this week we put Hamish Tostevin of Marshall White under the microscope and hit him around with a wet flannel. Some of you have given feedback saying why not ask some hard questions about quoting and expressions of interest shenanigans. We will, and we already have agreement from some of the key agency directors in Melbourne to answer the tougher questions around the middle of this year – again unedited. However, our plan for the next few months is to continue to show what we think we all can learn from quality selling agents. While there are certain things all buyers must be careful of when dealing with selling agents, there is still solid information that selling agents can provide that is not related to a property they are representing the seller on.

Buy Well