oc | Wednesday 13th November

市场新闻

Young Homebuyers Issues & Solutions

年轻购房者的问题和解决方案

Young Homebuyers Issues & Solutions

James 市场总结

James Market Summary

* 在惯例的七月冬季,墨尔本房产市场拍卖数量刮起了一股下降之风。看一下右方我们拍卖房产的图表—-很多人正开始暂停拍卖。

* 竞标者数量今天有所下降,然而房产质量本月有明显松动。

* 流拍较我们近期看到的要多,这是房产质量征兆的一部分,这同样也反应了卖主预期与市场博弈的情况。

* 在我们参加的27场拍卖中,81%的拍卖有2-6位竞标者,只要市场按这个力度走,这是个非常非常坚实的结果。

* 总的来讲,我们今天看到的,不多。市场的成交在心理上受到了媒体讨论的影响(这并不是抱怨——我们需要有这种讨论),虽然过一个周末长假,房产质量有所降低,但还是有了坚实的结果。

* 另外,欢迎回到James市场新闻(本周与下周将是大专题)。欢迎年轻的购房者在下两周分享我们的专题文章,然后在7月份学校假期期间市场新闻会暂停,James购房中介仍对客户开放。

  • The Inner Melbourne Market is beginning its wind down into the traditional July Winter break. Look at our forward auction stock graphs to the right – most are beginning to shut up shop.
  • was down today, however stock quality has also noticeably eased this month.
  • More pass-ins than we have seen for a while, which is partially a symptom of stock quality, but equally a response to vendor expectation v market
  • Still 81% of the 27 Auctions we attended had 2-6 bidders – that is super, super solid as far as market strength goes.
  • Overall what do we read into today – not much. The market has been hammered psychologically by the media discussions (no blame there – we need to have these discussions) and has still produced solid results on lower stock quality after a long weekend.
  • By the way welcome back to James Market News (this week and next week are Bumper Issues). Enjoy our special on Young Homebuyers spread over the next two weeks. Then Marketnews breaks for July school holidays; James Buyer Advocates is still open for buying clients.

 

本周James内部新闻

Inside James this week

 

中介报价中的一颗小宝石。在今天涉及的一系列拍卖中,让我们关注卖价$2百万的部分,正如我们3月23日所制图表中展示的。

* 我们今天参加的三场$200万的拍卖,是Heidelberg (Grant Leonard),(Mark Wridgway) 和Clifton Hill(Roland Paterson)。一个是大房子,一个是较小房子,还有一个是联体别墅——都是不同的式样。

* 你或许有兴趣知道这些房产的最初报价分别为$130万以上,$150万以上和$150万以上。

* 每一个这样的拍卖,都出现了井喷现象(4位或以上的竞标者)

* 它们都达到了超过报价10%的“市场价”。

* 而最终结果分别到了$1,975,000,$2,170,000和刚高于$2,000,000(最后成交价未公开)。

是不是经纪人报低了价?按照法规,不会,这些市场价均在报价上浮10%左右的范围(消费者协会接受这种正常的偏差)。这是否让人吃惊?不一定。经纪人说,这就是市场,他们已尽力做好他们的工作——我们也同意。

A Little Gem on Agent Quoting. Involved in a number of auctions today, but lets focus on the $2m segment as it matches up to the graphic we produced below on March 23rd.

  • The three auctions we bid on at $2m today were, Heidelberg (Grant Leonard), Armadale (Mark Wridgway) and Clifton Hill (Roland Paterson). One was a big home, one a smaller home and the third a townhouse – all different home types.
  • You maybe interested to know that the quotes were $1.3m plus, $1.5m plus and $1.5m plus.
  • Each or these auctions were Volcanoes (4 or more bidders).
  • They we all “on the market” at around 10% over their quote.
  • However the final results finished up being $1,975,000, $2,170,000 and just over $2,000,000 (undisclosed).

Are the agents underquoting? Legally no, as they were all on the market around 10% over their quote (Consumer Affairs accepted standard deviation). Was this all a surprise? Not really. The agents would say that’s the market and they have done there job well – we would agree.

* 但一直高于报价33%至50%的结果难道不让人感到惊奇吗?

* 而当你将这些结果同我们在3月23日所制的James市场图表的情况比较,以及同今年早些时候,另三个不同代理,三个不同住宅区的结果相比,同样是高于经纪人报价的33%至50%,这种一致性难道不让你感到更加惊奇吗?

* 这些是随机抽选的我们竞标情况。6位经纪人——6个住宅区——6种房屋式样——2个不同的月份,是多么惊人的相似啊!!!

  • But isn’t it amazing that the results were consistently between 33% and 50% above the quote.
  • And isn’t it even more amazing when you compare these results to the James Market Graphic below we produced March 23rd with three different agents in three different suburbs, earlier in the year which were also consistently 33% to 50% above agent quote.
  • These were randomly selected that we were bidding on. 6 agents – 6 suburbs – 6 home types – 2 different months.
  • What an amazing coincidence hey!!!

一生中,我们被告之所有的东西都是不同的,——但一生中,这三样是确定的: 死亡,税收和经纪人的报价。

In life we are told everything is different – but in life there are three certainties. Death, Taxes and Agent Quoting.

较大的拍卖

Bigger auctions

15 Rowell Avenue,,(Glen Coutinho, RT Edgar).未公开成交价,拍卖后高于$5,251,000, 2位竞标者。

15 Rowell Avenue, Camberwell, (Glen Coutinho, RT Edgar), Undisclosed above $5,251,000, After auction, 2 bidders

39 Lambeth Avenue,Armadale,(Justin Long, Marshall white), $4,660,000,成交,4位竞标者。

39 Lambeth Avenue, Armadale, (Justin Long, Marshall White), $4,660,000, Under hammer, 4 bidders

27 Summerhill Road, Brighton East,(Rob Strickland, Marshall White), $3,980,000,成交,4位竞标者。

27 Summerhill Road, Brighton East, (Rob Strickland, Marshall White), $3,980,000, Under hammer, 4 bidders

竞标者热闹非凡

Bidder Buz

128 Hawdon Street, Heidelberg,(Gordon Hope, Nelson Alexander),$1,975,000,成交,6位竞标者。

128 Hawdon Street, Heidelberg, (Gordon Hope, Nelson Alexander), $1,975,000, Under hammer, 6 bidders

6 Lewes Drive, East,(Daniel Wheeler, Marshall White),$2,500,000,成交,5位竞标者。

6 Lewes Drive, Malvern East, (Daniel Wheeler, Marshall White), $2,500,000, Under hammer, 5 bidders

21 Rostrevor Parade, Mont Albert North,(Patrick Dennis, Jellis Craig),¥2,010,000,成交,4位竞标者。

21 Rostrevor Parade, Mont Albert North, (Patrick Dennis, Jellis Craig), $2,010,000, Under hammer, 4 bidders

较大的流拍

Bigger Pass Ins

43 Victoria Street,Sandringham,$3,550,000,流拍,1位竞标者。

43 Victoria Street, Sandringham, $3,550,000, Passed In, 1 bidder

4 Derril Avenue,Malvern,$3,480,000,流拍,2位竞标者。

4 Derril Avenue, Malvern, $3,480,000, Passed In, 2 bidders

302 Beaconsfield Parade, Middle Park,$2,900,000,流拍,没有竞标者。

302 Beaconsfield Parade, Middle Park, $2,900,000, Passed In, 0 bidders

年轻人的问题和解决方案

Issues and Solutions for Young People

今天的James市场内部消息是我们就墨尔本年轻购房者面临的问题及解决方案两部分中的第一部分,本周讲问题,

ok下周谈解决方案。

我们在此为年轻人专门设立了一个网站在James Hope上。

我们James已经在为年轻人做一些事,尽管我们已经间接地为年轻人做了很多年(通过他们父母购买——我们投资最大的部分)。

Today’s James Market Insight is the first of two parts on Issues and Solutions facing young homebuyers in Melbourne. This week we cover the issues. Next week we cover the solutions.

We have set up a website specifically for young people here at James Hope

We at James have started to do something about young people, although we have been acting for young people in an indirect manner for many years now (through parental purchasing – our largest investment segment)

 

年轻的房屋购买者

Young Home Buyers

年轻人可以买房子——这要有想法(及一些帮助)。

一些年轻(不是太年轻)的购房者,在前几周停止了寻找他们的梦想之家。

这对他们来讲可能不是一件好事,事实上将来他们想拥有自己的家,就应该有完全相反的行动。

我在1985年购买了第一所房子,从那以后我买过1000次房子,每一次我都无一不是倾其所有。

A number of young (and the not so young) homebuyers will have stopped looking for their dream home in the last few weeks.

This could be a bad situation (for them).

In fact it could well have been a completely counterproductive action if at any stage, in the future, they want to own a family home.

I bought my first home in 1985. Since then I have bought over a 1000 homes and never have I once purchased a home by not giving it my all.

 

等候绝不是办法

Waiting never works

我从未见过一个朋友或客户由于在市场之外长时间或短时间的等候,而使自己处于了一个更有利的位置。请不要把这个观点和避免购买错误的房子,然后再继续去寻找正确的房子的观点混淆。

对我们每个人来讲都会有好房子和不好的房子,不要着急(即使在现在),但是,你如果不寻找,你就不会找到好房子。

一些年轻购房者,由于媒介上的讨论,脸谱(Facebook)上的互动,以及工作中和家中的讨论,而对购房失去了信心。

有很多说法,现在房市存在泡沫,并暗示泡沫将破灭,房价将急剧下跌,便宜房子会奇迹般地出现。

我们James不这么认为,至少从长远来看,不会,除非人口急剧变化。因此,如果你将你的长期幸福系于家的状况,你,或者你和你的同伴决定自己的命运,也就是要住在自己家的话,停止、放弃和不再关注是一个错误的认识。

Never have I seen a friend or a client be in a better position by waiting out of the market for any length of time. Please don’t confuse this statement with passing on buying the wrong home and then continuing to look for the right one.

There are good and bad homes for each and every one of us. Don’t rush (there is no rush, even now). However you won’t find the good homes by not looking.

A number of younger buyers will have been turned off by media talk, Facebook interactions and discussions at work or home.

There is a lot of talk that we are in a bubble and by implication the bubble will burst, home prices will drop dramatically and will miraculously appear.

We at James do not see that – not over the longer term anyway, not unless the population changes dramatically.

To stop the home search, to give up, to lose focus is WRONG, an untruth , a false perception IF your longer term happiness is tied to being in a family situation where you, or you and your partner control your destiny – eg you live in your own home.

从长远来讲房产市场将继续上涨

Markets will continue to rise in the longer term

1、 房产市场不会为你松动到所能注意到的程度。我们确实看到了自2008年金融危机以来,最坏的金融市场得以调整的效果,房产市场已经复苏,并且已经超过了2007、2008和2009年,如果你以”一生”的时间来观察房产的话,会发现一些起伏,但长远来讲,房产还是很坚挺的。

No easing of the market will assist you to any noticeable degree. We did see the effects of the worst financial markets correction since the Great Depression in 2008, the market has bounced back and now much farther ahead than it was in 2007, 2008 or 2009. If you are viewing a home over a “lifetime” investment horizon, there will be bumps, but it will be a strong long term proposition.

2、 随着时间的流逝,只要人口在增长,房市就一定会上涨。这是简单的供求关系。澳大利亚基础设置(Infrastructure Australia)两周前提供了一份报告指出,在未来的15年里,布里斯班、悉尼、墨尔本和泊斯的人口将有45%的增长,如果这不是对持续的住房需求的保证,我不知道什么才是。

Over time the market will/must continue to rise whilst there is population growth. It’s simple and . Infrastructure Australia* released their report two weeks ago and in it they have projected a 45% increase in population in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth over the next 15 years.  If that isn’t reassurance of continuing , I don’t know what is.

3、 政府不能也不会“救”你,年轻的购房者。能“救”你,年轻购房者的只有你自己(或如果你很幸运——有好父母)。

The government cannot and will not “save” you, the young homebuyers. The only thing that will “save” you, the young homebuyer, is you (and if you are lucky – good parents).

所以Mr.Hockey先生的话虽然生硬,却很在理。

或许,我很大度,但是上周一份很有用的报告似乎很有争议。

如果你想买一个好房子,去找一份能获得好收入的工作。这从我看来,是上周几个很正确和有用的结论之一 ——如果买一个好房子是你优先选择的话。

但是,请注意,除了找一份好的工作外,还有很多要做。一些年轻的医生,他们拥有社会公认的很好的工作,可他们感觉他们没能力购买他们的第一个房屋。

作为一个年轻的购房者,请不要被一些细节或政治所困扰。

Mr.Hockey先生的观点是有用的,如果你理解他的意思:

Perhaps I am being generous, but one of the more helpful statements this last week seemed to be the most controversial.

If you want to buy a good home, get a job that pays. This, in my opinion, was one of the few accurate and helpful comments of this last week – if buying a good home is your main priority.

BUT please, there is more to this than getting a good job. A number of young doctors feel they can’t buy their first home and they have what society deems is a good job.

As a young home buyer, please don’t get caught up in the minutiae or the politics.

Mr Hockey’s statement is a helpful pointer if you take it as meaning:

 

  • 采取你自己的行动。

Take Action yourself

2、 获得你要购房的各种资源。

Get the Resources you need to get a home

作为一个年轻的购房者,你需要行动,以此来掌握你自己的命运。

You as young home buyers need to act and take it upon yourselves to control your own destiny.

理论并不能为你盖一个屋顶,实践才能解决问题。

Theories do not put a roof over your head – Practical Solutions Do

房子的合理价格是一个理论问题。

有效的房屋购买是一个实践的结果。

作为一个年轻的购房者,你是选择被讲究的晚宴上闲聊的问题所困扰,还是解决问题,为你的家庭成员头上盖上一个长久安全的屋顶重要。

首先是问题,然后我们把问题放在一边,讨论解决方案。

House Affordability is a theoretical problem.

Effective House Buying is a practical solution.

Your choice as a young homebuyer is to be caught up in the problems – good dinner party chatter or caught up in the solutions, which will put a roof over your family’s head and more importantly build long term security for your family.

First the problems and then we put the VIOLIN away and discuss solutions.

  • 负扣税者

Negative Gearers

作为一个年轻的购房者,你会面对负扣税者(和养老金,以及其他投资工具)。

如果你在看一个$80万的房子,并正在同一个负扣税者竞争,一个负扣税者可以按需要借足够多的钱,他可以有$200万以上的支付能力去买同样$80万的房子,他的支出仍比你的分期还贷要少,即使你付了20%的首付。

As a young home buyer you face negative gearers (AND super funds AND other investment vehicles as well).

If you are looking at an $800,000 home and you are competing against a negative gearer, then a negative gearer can borrow all the money they need and can pay well over $2,000,000 for that same $800,000 home and it will still COST LESS to service than what it would for you pay for your mortgage, even assuming you had a 20% deposit.

负扣税和养老金使得房租上涨的争论是真的,房租的上涨推动了房价的上涨,使得年轻的购房者买不起房子。

The argument that negative gearing and super funds increase rentals is true, but its also BALONEY for you because with SMART BABY BOOMER INVESTORS it increases rentals at the cost of young home buyers buying a home.

所以,让我们取消负扣税和养老金,好吗?

So lets get rid of negative gearing, super funds OK. 

也许,在还没有想通之前,请不要着急。

Maybe, but please not in a hurry, without thinking it through.

我们为许多父母买过房子,他们在过去十年间阅读过我们的博客。如果政府或反对派能取消负扣税,那么在很多情况下,他们所做的就是让海外购房者能更方便地买房产,这些房产原本是你们希望留给年轻人的。

我有十几岁的孩子,我也需要负扣税给我火力同海外购买者竞争来维护和购买房子,我代表很多家长,他们都需要负扣税的火力同海外投资者竞争,来维护和购买房子。

所以,你是真的认为政府正在疏远婴儿潮出生的人群,从理论上讲,是的。但实践中我吃不准。他们很可能稀释负扣税,然而正像从上述算术中看到的那样,稀释负扣税,效果有限,因为此间的间隙很巨大。

很多家长需要负扣税和养老金来同中国购买者和其他海外购买者竞争,并且现在正在做。我们知道因为我们正在为家长们买房。

如果政府取消负扣税、养老金,他们将可能受到很多人的强烈抵制,因为他们剥夺了很多人正为了他们的孩子们利用这一重要工具在购买墨尔本近郊房子的国际舞台上进行竞争。

We buy a number of homes for parents who have been reading our blogs for the last decade. If the government or the opposition got rid of negative gearing, then in many cases, all they would be doing, is making it easier for overseas buyers to purchase the stock that you are hoping will be freed up for younger people.

I have teenage children and I need the firepower negative gearing gives me to maintain and buy homes against overseas buyers. I represent many parents and they need the firepower negative gearing gives them to maintain and buy homes against overseas investors.

So do you really think the government is going to alienate the baby boomers. In theory yes, but in practice, I’m not so sure. They may water down negative gearing. However, as you can see from the above maths watering down will have limited effect, as the gap is so great.

Many parents need negative gearing or super funds to compete against Chinese buyers and other overseas buyers and are doing so right now. We know as we are buying for parents.

If the government removed negative gearing, super funds they could suffer a tremendous backlash from many people (with resources) because they would take away a significant tool in competing on the international stage for buying Inner Melbourne Homes for their children.

可能的解决方案之一:我们将在下周进行深入讨论——让你们的父母参加进来。

Possible Solution Number 1 – we will be discussing in depth next week – Get your parents involved NOW

如果我们同6年级的孩子谈论买房,我们能告诉他们的主要就是,让爸爸妈妈现在出去为你们寻找好的房子,把它租出去直到你30岁。当然,我还要加上一句,爸爸妈妈一定要知道为你购买好房子和坏房子的差别。

If we were talking to Grade 6’s about home buying, the main message we would be telling them is get Mum and Dad out there now looking for a good home for you to rent off them when you’re 30. Of course I would be adding in make sure Mum and Dad know the difference between a good and a bad family home to buy for you.

如果你不能打败他们,那就加入他们。也许不要憎恨负扣税,利用好它。

房产孤儿(没有父母帮助的购房者)也希望和需要负扣税,否则你就会被其他购房者打败。

这里有一些提示(但是请告诉我们你想买什么,大多数的公寓楼房是不可负扣税的)。

If you cant beat them, join them. Maybe DON’T hate negative gearing, USE IT.

PROPERTY ORPHANS (no helpful parents) STILL want and need negative gearing, otherwise you will get beaten up by OTHER BUYERS.

Here are some clues (but please talk to us about what to buy, most apartments ARE NOT the things to negative gear).

可能的解决方案之二:现在就买一个好房子,租出去进行负扣税,当你可以负担得起的时候,搬进去住。

Possible Solution Number Two: Buy a GOOD home NOW and negative gear with a tenant, then move in when you can afford it.

 

可能的解决方案之三:再冒大一点的风险——买一个好房子,并让你的朋友也买一个好房子,通过律师签一个正式或非正式的合同,互相住在对方的房子,使用负扣税。你的主要目的不是要避税,你主要的目的是能有一个栖身场所,一个负担得起的家。减少你的税收能使你同当地和海外的购房者进行竞争。万一需要,我仍会就此种安排进行法律咨询。

Possible Solution Number Three: Bit more adventurous – buy a GOOD home and get a friend to buy a GOOD home and use negative gearing, possibly with a solicitor and a formal/informal agreement to live in each other’s homes. Your main purpose is not to avoid tax; your main purpose is to provide shelter, to afford a home. The lessening of your tax allows you to compete against other local and overseas buyers. I would still get some legal advice on this type of set up, just in case.

但是,请注意,这并不是所有的解决方案,这只是你负责和获取负扣税方法的一部分,这有助于你,不会损害你。

有关这方面更多情况,请关注下周的James市场新闻。

BUT please this is not the whole solution in itself. This is part thereof, of you taking charge and getting negative gearing to help you, not hurt you.

More on this in next week’s James Market News.

 

  • 海外购房者

Overseas Buyers

如果不是中国购房者,那么印度的、巴西的或印度尼西亚的等等购房者也会对你想买的房子同你竞争。

海外购房不可能突然停下来,因为所有政党都希望人口增长,希望海外的有钱人来。

这是对还是错,不用我们去评论,但海外的竞标,尤其是来自中国的,影响了墨尔本近郊的房产市场,即使在墨尔本近郊的中国人没有竞标。

If not Chinese buyers, then Indian buyers, Brazilian buyers, and Indonesian buyers and so on will be competing on the homes you want to buy.

Overseas buying is unlikely to stop in a hurry as all political parties want population growth and they want it from rich overseas people.

Whether that is right or wrong is not for us to say – but Overseas bidding particularly from China dominates the Inner Melbourne Market – even where Chinese people are not bidding.

海外的购房者比你有钱去购买一幢$80万的房子,特别是当澳元像今天这样的汇率。

我们可以这样说,在2010年,作为一个年轻人决定存钱,付个首付,买一个$70万的房子你只要付$14万,而当下的问题,不仅是你原来$70万的房子现在变成了$80万或者$90万,而且澳元在国际市场上已经下跌了。

一对在北京的夫妇同样在2010年存钱付首付,但他们存的是美元,今天他们存的钱就相当于$21万澳元了,这样他们就可以简单的支付$100万澳元房产的首付了,这是因为汇率的变化。

在过去的5年里,澳元对美元下跌了50%,

因此,对那时值$70万现时值$80万的房子,海外的购房者可以用在2010年开始和你同样多的存款,出标$100万来购买了。

Overseas buyers have more money to spend on an $800,000 home than you, particularly while the A$ is as it is.

Lets say in 2010 you as a young person decided to save for a deposit on a then $700,000 home. You were looking to save $140,000 deposit. During this time the main issue IS NOT that your $700,000 has gone to $800,000 or $900,000 but that the Australian dollar has dropped and you are in an international market.

The couple in Beijing who were also saving in 2010, but were saving in US dollars have now effectively $210,000 AUS as a deposit and can fund a $1,000,000 purchase simply because of the exchange rate changes. A 50% drop in the AUS $ vs. US$ in the last 5 years.

So for that $700,000 home now worth $800,000 the overseas buyers could bid to $1,000,000 with the same savings since 2010 as you.

这只是等式的一部分,有很多中国和其他国家的家庭,他们不需要借钱,他们是$80万到$800万的现金购房者,就像我们最近说的,现中国有超过2,000,000拥有百万资产的家庭在找房子。

我们,James房产买方代理知道这些,因为我们代理当地和其他国家家庭的业务。

That’s only one part of the equation, there are many Chinese and other international families who don’t need to borrow – they are $800,000 to $8,000,000 cash buyers. As we said recently there are over 2,000,000 millionaire Chinese families looking for homes.

We at James Buyer Advocates know that because we act for local and international families.

停止海外购房者买我们孩子的房子成了很多晚餐聚会上的悄悄话题。

好,怎么停止呢?FIRB法案(有关限制海外投资者)就像航班安全法案一样有效——意思是只要人们想做,他们就会做——只要他们被允许跨过门槛。

除此之外,停止海外购房者购买,事实上对你在墨尔本近郊寻找离交通、商店、工作、朋友和学校都近的好房子有帮还是有损害呢?

考虑一下,海外购房有积极地一面。

2009年,中国购买挽救了墨尔本房地产大幅持久的衰退,而不像几乎所有其他国家所经历的那样。

你是不是真的想停止中国购房者买房?是不是你希望像日本那样,房地产市场20年平波不涨——人口零增长,移民为零?

这不仅仅是钱的问题——中国人家庭还向我们提供了很多他们古老和更加现代的文化。

也许,我们想象日本那样,关闭我们的国境,或像加拿大那样对中国的购买者进行了部分的关闭。

作为一个共同体,我们每个人都应通过我们的政治家来做出决定。

我不知道完全的限制是否是一条出路,或许聚焦某些区域是一个比较好的选择——或许不是——这需要讨论,然后行动。这比盲目行动要好。

海外,特别是来自中国的竞标,影响了墨尔本近郊的房市,即使在墨尔本近郊的中国人没有出标,这是真的。

然而,我们有中国人购房已经有40年了,只不过从来没有达到现在这种强度。

但是,你和你的孩子们能等吗?当讨论正在发生时,你的孩子们对房子的需求可能比讨论更快,他们已经从6岁到了16岁,从16岁到了26或从26到了36岁。

Let’s stop Overseas Buyers from taking our kids homes is the under the breath comment at many dinner parties.

OK how? The FIRB Act (designed to limit Overseas Investment) is as effective as Airline security – meaning if people want to do it, then they will do it – if they have been allowed to get to the threshold stage.

And besides that, will stopping overseas buyers actually help or hurt you in your quest for a good home in Inner Melbourne close to transport, shops, work, friends and schools?

Think about it, Overseas Buying has positives.

Chinese buying saved Melbourne property in 2009 from experiencing what almost every other country experienced – a significant and sustained property downturn.

Do you really want to stop Chinese buyers? Do you want a 20 year flattish property market like Japan – which has zero population growth and zero immigration?

And its not just the money – Chinese families have a lot to offer us through their older and more modern cultures.

Maybe we want to be like Japan and shut our borders or Canada who has partially shut them to Chinese buyers.

As a community we will all have to make that decision through our politicians.

I’m not so sure any total lockdown is the way to go. Perhaps a focus into regional areas may be a better alternative – maybe not – it needs discussion and then action, rather than knee jerk reactions.

What is true is Overseas bidding particularly from China dominates the Inner Melbourne Market – even where Chinese people are not bidding.

However we have had Chinese buying for 40 years, just never at this level of intensity.

But can you and your children wait? They may have gone from 6 to 16, or 16 to 26, or 26 to 36 while discussions are happening and your children need a home sooner than that.

  • 房产经纪人和购房代理商
  1. Real Estate Agents and Buyer Advocates

经纪人和代理商推高房价,毁了年轻人的希望。

好的卖方经纪人会推高房价,而坏的买方代理商由于不称职会损害年轻购房者,但是真正的事实是我们,经纪人或代理商没有那么大能耐——我们无法控制市场。

是供求关系在控制市场。

需求来自人口,富有的移民是主要驱动者,而大多数墨尔本近郊好的地段和地块的房子是非常有限的。

所以,当经纪人(鉴于自己的报价和一些技巧)成了他们自己最坏的敌人,年轻购房者不能买房居住的原因已不是他们。

如果我们停止一切

好!这么说,在你们最理想的世界里,我们去掉了中国购房者,取消了负扣税者,禁止了养老金购房,停止了移民等等,等等。

那就剩下你了,这是否意味你就能自动地、方便地买一处房子,不一定。

Agents and advocates are ruining it for young people by pushing the prices up.

Good selling agents do push prices up and bad buyer advocates can hurt young homebuyers with their incompetence. But the real truth is us agents/advocates are not that good – we can’t control markets.

It’s demand and supply that controls markets.

Demand is from population, with wealthy immigration being the main driver; and supply is very restricted on most Inner Melbourne Homes with good position and good land.

So while agents are often their own worst enemy (with regards to their quoting and some tactics), they are not the reason why young homebuyers can’t buy a home to live in.

If we stopped everything

Ok, so lets say in your perfect world we’ve got rid of the Chinese buyers, got rid of the Negative gearers, banned Super Funds from buying homes, stopped immigration and yada yada yada.

Where would that leave you – does that mean you can automatically buy a home much more easily?

Not necessarily.

  • 受伤的竞标失败者

Wounded Underbidders.

例如,你参加过墨尔本北区的房产拍卖会吗?——你知道那种需要装修的单面屋吧?——那种你几乎可以负担得起的。你是否正在和负扣税者,养老金买房者和来自亚洲的家庭竞争?肯定不是——但你同样正在和受伤的竞标失败者——那些在以前曾经投过标的购买者在进行竞争,他们来自原墨尔本本地人口出生的人群和墨尔本地区以外的澳大利亚境内的移民,那些富有的,想离学校、基础设施近一些的远郊购房者。

现在他们比你有更好的资源。所谓更好的资源我们的意思是:

1、 有一个明确的目标。

2、 有一个购房代理或其他房产专业人士。

3、 做了详细的调查研究,等等——例如:他们可能有更具竞争力的利率——每省一个澳元都是好的。

对年轻购房者问题的结论

如果政府或者军队或者媒体,或……能以某种方式:

* 停止海外购房者进入

* 停止负扣税和养老金买房,和……

* 停止其他的当地人同你竞争。

以及同时:

* 保持经济的繁荣。

* 以便你能保持一个好工作。

* 在经济不景气的情况下,让开发商建造更多的新房子。

你应该在哪里呢?

Have you been to auctions in the Inner North for instance – you know the single-fronters in need of a reno – the ones you can almost afford?

Are you just competing against negative gearers, super funders and families from Asia?

Well no – you are also competing against WOUNDED UNDERBIDDERS – that is other buyers who have bid before. They have come from Inner Melbourne organic population increases via Inner Melbourne births and Australian intra-migration from Outer Melbourne and Regional wealthier homebuyers wanting to be closer to schools and infrastructure that works.

NOW they are better resourced than you.  By better resourced we mean they:

  1. Have a clearer focus
  2. Have a buyer advocate or other property professional
  3. Have done greater research and so on – eg they may have a more competitive interest rate – every dollar counts!

CONCLUSION TO ISSUES for YOUNG HOMEBUYERS

If the government or the army or the media or …….. were somehow able to:

  • Stop the Overseas Buyers coming
  • Stop negative gearing and super funds and ….
  • Stop other locals competing against you

and all the while:

  • Kept the economy buoyant
  • So you can keep a job and
  • Kept the developers actually building new homes in a negative economic environment.

Where would you be?

 

你真的希望你买的第一所房子在向西,向西的西边?并居住在一个20年房地产市场像日本那样的国家?那种只有少数好房产流动,几乎使你没有希望的国家?如果要看到你最终居住在离学校附近,家在Hawthorn那种好房子,无非只有这样三个好的决定了。

我自己,为了我的孩子,我希望房市温和地上涨,我希望他们学习如何更好地利用上涨的墨尔本房市。

不要放弃——不要抱怨负扣税和中国购房者,学习如何同他们相处和进入人群混住的宅区。

但是请尽快进入人群混住的宅区,早进入比晚进入好。

因为一旦你进入,而你做了好的决定,买了个很好的房子,那市场对你就有利。

例:2000年我们在Albert Park用了$48万为家庭买了房,2005年又在Sandy转买了$88万的房子,2015年又在Bayside转买了$200万的房子,所有这些支出都是可以掌控的。看一下数字$48万——这不是你现在有的吗?

这就看你怎么做,怎样利用好这个房产市场!

Do you really want to buy you first home in Whoop Whoop West and live in a country with a 20 year property market like Japan – which gave you almost no hope of a few good property moves that saw you end up in Hawthorn – near schools in a nice home for not much else than three good decisions?

Me personally – I want a gently rising market for my children. And I want them to learn how to use The Rising Melbourne Market to their advantage.

Don’t give up – don’t whine about negative gearing and Chinese buyers, learn to deal with them and get into the property mix.

But please get into the property mix sooner rather than later.

Because once you are in, then if you make good decisions and buy well, the market will work for you.

Example: We have bought for families who have moved from $480,000 in in 2000 to $880,000 in Sandy in 2005 to $2,000,000 in in 2015 all with manageable changeover costs. Look at the number $480,000 – isn’t that what you have now?

How do you do that, how do you use this market to your advantage?

 

四个解决问题的关键

1、 好的计划。

2、 好的专业帮助——James购房代理或其他。

3、 好的程序。

4、 好的决定。

在下周的James房市新闻(Jamesmarketnews.com.au)和Jameshope.com.au上,我们将作更深入的调查,为年轻购房者提供切实可操作的解决方案。

下周我们将讨论。

1、 好的计划

2、 好的专业帮助——James购房代理

3、 好的程序

4、 好的决定

所有这些都是关于现在和长远,绝不是只顾现在。

The Four Solution Keys

  1. Good Plan
  2. Good Professional Assistance – James Buyer Advocates or others
  3. Good Processes
  4. Good Decisions

Next week at Jamesmarketnews.com.au and Jameshope.com.au we investigate in depth, real practical solutions for young people buying homes.

Next week we will discuss:

  1. Good Plan
  2. Good Professional Assistance – James Buyer Advocates
  3. Good Processes
  4. Good Decisions

Its all about NOW plus the LONGER TERM, not just the NOW.

 

James的经历

这篇文章对年轻人,我们的意思是所有45岁以下的人,可能缺少共鸣。但我可以说,我有十几岁的孩子,我完全完全理解有关房屋的负担的问题。但是……我想据我们的经历说一些我们正在关心的事与大家分享。

1、 我的家庭为了孩子们已经买了所需三所房子的两所,并且还正在进行分期付款,就像所有其他家庭一样。我们用了负扣税,我们需要用它。我们的孩子年龄分别为20岁,16岁了,和14岁。我们有很大的担忧,如果我们不朝这个目标努力,我们的孩子可能会有很大的住房问题,那将对他们的人生产生负面的影响(而这很可能发生)。

2、 自2006年汉诺威无房者租赁经纪项目(Hanover’s for the Homeless Private Rental Brokerage Programme)以来,我的家庭和James购房代理有了众多的支持者。汉诺威项目使我们看到了第一手的情况,成百上千的家庭,由于负担不起像样的房屋,每晚都睡不好。

3、 我是一个专业的买房代理,已经代理买过超过1000所房屋,看到现在的房屋负担情况影响的不仅仅是年轻的第一次购房者,还影响了很多其他的人。只有婴儿潮出生的这一代(我们这一代)才没有受此困扰。以我个人的唐突见解,我们作为一代人需要用一种有意义的方法做更多的来回馈和帮助那些继承我们的人;而不是当我们离开这个世界时,留给他们一些类似破烂的场景。

James Credentials

Now for young people and by that we mean anybody under say 45, this article may appear lacking in empathy. All I can say is I have teenage children and I totally, totally share the concerns re home affordability, BUT………… I share my/our credentials to be able to say what we are saying.

  1. My family has bought two of the needed three homes for our children and we are still paying off those mortgages, just as many other families are. We have used negative gearing. We needed it.
    Our children are 20,16 and 14. I/we have significant fears that if we had not been working towards this goal our children would have had significant housing problems that would impact negatively on their lives (and that still may happen).
  2. Our family and James Buyer Advocates has been substantial supporters since 2006 of Hanover’s for the Homeless Private Rental Brokerage programme. The work of Hanover has allowed us to see first hand the hundreds and hundreds of families who sleep rough every night because they cannot afford decent housing.
  3. I am a professional buyer advocate, have bought over a 1000 homes and see the current housing affordability situation affecting not only young first homebuyers, but many other people as well. The only generation that has done well from all this is the baby boomers (my generation). In my humble opinion, we as a generation, need to do a hellava lot more in giving back in a meaningful way to help those that follow us; rather than leave some sort of scorched landscape as we depart planet Earth (sorry about the soapbox)

 

专家们的话

Words from the expert

年轻经纪人调查。你对想进入房产市场的年轻购买者有什么长远的建议?

Younger Agent Survey: What is your longer term advice for younger buyers trying to get into this market?

Chris Hassall (Buxton, Bentleigh):对想进入市场买房的年轻购房者,最好的建议是考虑买楼花。我记得我第一次涉足房市,我在Elwood买了一个公寓房的楼花,我很难在拍卖现场买到,有很多竞标者,并且还要付额外的印花税,当我买楼花省去了印花税,并且知道了确定的价格,没有拍卖竞争那种把价格推向可笑的水平。还有,如果你按今天的价格买下,它还需要12-18个月的建造,到那时房屋价格就可能上去了。七年前我花了$42.5万买的,当建好以后,它已经值$60万了。这就帮助我提前了下一次购买的可能。

编者按:我们不删除经纪人的讨论,Chris是一个优秀的经纪人,然而我们James并不鼓励年轻人买楼花。

Rick Daniel (Nelson Alexander, Fitzroy):

我想和客户分享的建议同我自己采用的策略没有什么两样——关注有增值机会的土地。你的第一次房产很可能不会是你最终的,所以不要等候最完美的房屋,这有可能使你又一次在市场失去机会。要绝对关注位置,朝向和土地尺寸,而不是现有房子的样子,你要永远记住你的主要住宅是你最大的免税资产,因此,你要去发现一处你所能得到最多资金购买,能改进和建造的房产。如果你喜欢的是公寓房,联体别墅或单位房,把你的搜寻限于有增值可能的精品和小地块的老式房子。

Zali Reynolds (Marshall White, Hawthorn):

我感觉年轻的购房者对自己的负担能力有种趋于不现实的预期

总想推迟购买,直到他们发现“完美的房子”。没有“完美的房子”,因此,我们的建议是寻找那些你能负担得起的,最好地段的,有很好的筋骨和布局的房子,墙可以粉刷,瓦可以更换,地板可以抛光,地段是关键,寻找临近交通、学校、商店和绿地的。最好还要关注街上其他房子的状态、式样。如果你决定再卖掉房子,这会对其他购买者有吸引力。

Halli Moore (Buxton, Brighton):

我的建议是选择有增值潜力的地区,那些随着时间推移有增值潜力的房产,要确定不管你决定买什么样的房产,你要负担得起。利率不总是一样的,因此你需要能够面对“可能”的情况。如果利率开始上升,你能负担得起吗?如果房价下跌又会发生什么,会对你产生什么影响?寻求建议,做好准备。

Chris Hassall (Buxton, Bentleigh):

The best advice for young buyers trying to buy into the market is to consider off the plan. I remember when I first got into the market I bought an apartment in Elwood off the plan. I was finding it hard to buy at auction with all the competition and extra stamp duty payments. When I bought off the plan I saved stamp duty and also knew it was a fixed price; no auction competition that pushed up prices to silly levels. Also, if you buy at today’s prices, and it takes 12-18 months for the property to be build it may go up in that time. Seven years ago, I bought for $425K and it was worth $600K when it was finished. This helped me get ahead for the next purchase back then.

Editor Note: We do not edit or delete agent comments and Chris is an excellent agent. However we at James, do not support buying off the plan for young people. 

Rick Daniel (Nelson Alexander, Fitzroy):

The advice I share with clients is no different to the strategy I apply myself – focus on land with value adding opportunities. It’s unlikely that your first property is going to be your last, so don’t wait for the perfect home cause there’s every chance you’ll miss another market. Be strict on the position, orientation and size of the land rather than what the house looks like in its current form. One needs to always remember that your principle place of residence is your largest tax-free asset so try to find a property where you can improve and build as much capital as possible. If your preference is an apartment, townhouse or unit, limit your search to boutique/smaller blocks and older-style buildings where you can still add value.

 Zali Reynolds (Marshall White, Hawthorn):

I feel that younger buyers tend to have unrealistic expectations of what they can afford and tend to hold off buying until they find the ‘perfect house’. There is no ‘perfect house’ so my advice would be to look for the best location you can afford and something with great bones and a good floorplan. Walls can be painted, tiles replaced and floors polished. Location is key. Look for proximity to transport, schools, shops and parklands. It is also good to pay attention to the condition and style of other houses in the street. Other well-maintained or renovated homes in the street lift the overall feel of the location and will appeal to other buyers if you decide to resell down the track.

Halli Moore (Buxton, Brighton):

My advice is to select an area that offers good growth potential. Target properties that offer potential to value add over time. Make sure that whatever you decide to purchase, you can afford the repayments. Interest rates will not always be the same so you need to be able to factor the “what if”. Can you afford the repayments if rates start to increase? What happens if property prices go down, how will that impact on you? Seek advice and be prepared.

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