oc | Tuesday 21st January

The Market Roar – where and when


At 6.00 pm on Saturday we found the market, as we have found it all year; B and C Graders down – A-Graders mixed.

A-Grader, by our definition – right Position, right Property and right Price – good PPP‘s.

Overall, the market as we go into winter is still declining in its mood, interspersed with some strong results: such as 3 bidders to $4,855,000 at 143 Finch St, (John Bongiorno).

Overall, the prestige market still has robust longer term and fundamentals, with increasing population (), lots of people with cash () versus and infrastructure restrictions (supply).

All this points to longer-term price rises.

However right now, we are knee-deep in the middle of a cash and credit crunch, due to a significant decrease in the “new-money” supply from:

1) a cut back in Asian, in particular, Chinese money due to

  • China controls,
  • increased stamp duty on foreign buyers and
  • tighter bank lending to overseas buyers in Australia.

2) a significant tightening by the big 4 banks on credit to local buyers

  • restricted lending to buyers with high LVR’s (loan to ratios) at the $2-$3million+ point,
  • needing bridging finance (buy/sell risk) and/or
  • /interest only loans.

The market again, as it has over the last few weekends, spoke clearly.

The % in the last year, have moved from the hotter-than-hot 80’s to the middling 70’s, into the cool 60’s and are now nearing the freezing 50’s, the same as the weather this last week.

has halved from a year ago and on some weekends is now below 1 (a third of a year ago).

Both of the above are “GFC-like” stats and like post the GFC, it is relatively easy to deduce that the Inner Melbourne market will come roaring back at some stage, based on Melbourne’s current demand and supply characteristics.

That roaring back probably won’t be like a frog jumping into boiling water (say 2015); it will probably be more like a frog in water with the heat slowly rising, like 2009 to 2013.

Meaning as a buyer you may not get a jolt to say – hey wake up, buy now. You may actually miss this opportunity as the market passes you by. Hopefully, the above metaphor makes sense.

Nonetheless, the temperature will rise again for buyers and that will be our focus for the first James Market News in the second half of 2018 on July 28th – Go Pies v the Dees in the interim.

Special July 28th stories on:

1. Sell/Buyer Advocacy – on and off-market: We will cover the positive ways you can operate in the spring market – Buyer or Seller

2. Architecture – we do a lot of work with Architects for buyers/renovators and it’s so important to get the initial brief right. To borrow an American metaphor and twist it a bit – the fruit (budget and emotion) of a poisonous tree (bad process) is unacceptable if you don’t start right. You (with our help) can set the agenda (what you really want) and the expert Architect delivers the results (look, timing and budget).

3. Agent Selection – the market has changed and a number of agents simply do not have the skills or experiences to operate in their client’s best interests within this. Having said that a number do and we will outline what we think you need to look for.

4. If you have an A-Grader – how do you know and what to do if you don’t.

5. What the 2018 spring market holds for buyers and sellers.

All this and more in our first James Market News for the second half of 2018!



Yes, James Buyer Advocates is open throughout Winter.  9804 3133

Subscribe to our Market News Newsletter

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Be with James

Would you like to talk to us about finding or negotiating on your next home?
We buy 100 homes for our clients every year.
We buy Inner East and Bayside over $2m.
View more MasterClass Articles

Inside James Market News