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简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。

简而言之,今天超级星期六市场有点牵强。
这是个概括,一个超级星期六的概括。John Morrisby就 40 Britten, Glen Iris 达成了交易,成交价$2,415,000 有3位竞标者。 墨尔本近郊数据 竞标人数 2 拍卖水平 245 清盘率74 竞标人数 零竞标者 1位竞标者 2/3位竞标者 4位以上竞标者 2      19%       19%       46%           16% 我们今天主要着重于关注高端房产,因为它是金矿中的黄宝石。如果市场有变化的话, 你将最早在高端领域看到,因为目前的市场是一个受高端房产驱动的市场。从传统上来讲,高端领域房产价格最容易受到影响,因此能很好反映情况。 今天我们报导的38场拍卖中有33场是超过二百万澳元的,并且其中近乎一半超过三百万澳元。你可能认为以下一些评论也许比较中立——我们不是——我们报导我们所看到的.我们看到一些变化,但是我们知道今天是一个超级星期六,而且我们集中关注的是一个传统的最少竞标者参与的部分——墨尔本高端领域中的高端,市场仍然相对强劲。 James 市场总结 每年这个周末是对春季市场的一个测试;因此我们今天把拍卖记录员派到各种不同的拍卖现场,从而来确认或否决拍卖现场到底在发生什么,并且墨尔本近郊百万澳元以上房地产市场是怎样的。 简而言之,今天的市场有点牵强,它没有像过去那样消化吞食上市房产,没有像今年五月份那样。 然而总体来说,我们觉得市场仍然是强劲的,只是没有像五月份那样强。 在上周你可以感觉到媒体评论,麦考利(Macquarie)和Westpac对一些范围有影响—— B级和C级房产。 即使上周末的市场统计数据也表明竞标者人数是强的,平均在5位左右,清盘率在80%,所有这些都基于大量的房产。今天处于2位边界线,清盘率也是在边界线上,我们这里所说的边界线是指市场强和正常之间的边界,而不是指市场坚挺和虚弱之间的边界。 和我们交谈过的中介报告说买者对公开房屋展示的兴趣和买者急切性有所下降,这是同中春的市场,同几个月之前的五月份市场相比较而言的,至于中介,他们的意见我们还是尊重的,他们仍然觉得市场是有支撑力的,只是力量没有像冬季前的白热化市场那样强,这点我们同意。 我们是否认为本周市场同上一周市场一样强——不。当1位竞标者人数和2到3位竞标者人数的拍卖百分比保持不动,而井喷的竞标者人数却急剧下跌,并且零竞标者情况在增加。 我们是否认为本周的市场同五月的市场一样热——不,我们认为自早春以来,我们已经确认过数次了。 我们是否认为市场正在下跌——也许,但是我们认为我们最好押宝押在市场在趋于平稳。 从一些历史角度来看: 这是一个巨大的周末,下面是James过去五年超级星期六的标题。 2015:简言之,今天的超级星期六市场有点牵强:清盘率74%,竞标人数2.0 2014:今天对买者来说非常艰难(就像预期的那样):清盘率77%,竞标人数2.1 市场在2015年初的变化速度从高速到超音速。 2013:超级,超级星期六!清盘率73%,竞标人数2.3市场继续在上升。 2012:市场在变坏还是在变好?我们认为是在变好!清盘率71%,竞标人数1.8. 市场在当月转向,并在后六个月上升,事实上一直升到现在。 2011:超级星期六:有些变好,大多数变坏:清盘率43%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在后六个月下降。 2010:这个超级星期六发生了什么?清盘率55%,竞标人数1.3. 市场在之后六个月下降,这确实是2010后期,2011和2012早期的非常平均走势的 开始。   那么总的来讲,2015的超级星期六对我们来讲意味什么? 市场的闲聊正在对市场增长的速度产生抑制作用。 虽然同过去的几个周末相比,今天的数字是下降的,那很可能只是由于市场上房产数量太大的缘故以及我们片面的只针对高端房产进行报导.对我们来讲任何的市场转向,尚未定论,但是我们承认在上一周出现了一些松缓的气氛。 通过与三个在上升市场的超级星期六相比(2012年10月到现在)这个周末的结果仍在同样的数值范围之内.就竞标者人数和清盘率而言,今天的结果仍然是我们称之为强势的市场。   毫无疑问,在高端领域出现了更多的流拍,这在市场变化过程中是正常现象,是的,市场可能在变化。这在市场存量激增的情况下也是正常的,是的,很可能是市场提供量的关系。我们根据今天所看到的还不能排除其中任何一种情况.当墨尔本市场发生变化时,它存在两种节奏——A级的(好的PPP好的价格,房子和位置)继续闪耀,B级的显示出了混合的结果,而C级的(差的价格,房子和位置)简单来讲卖不掉。这种情况现在正在发生,因为有些卖家把他们的价格目标定得越来越高,而买家的目标已开始平稳,甚至下跌。   是否墨尔本近郊市场已经发生改变? 可能,我们的意见是上周市场在自信上确实受到了新的创伤,但如果说这将产生比自信心受到更严重的情况还是为时过早,因此,我们将等到11月份再来确认这周是否是: * 短暂的停顿 * 水平矫正 * 或是游戏改变 十一月份三个星期的竞标者人数连同清盘率无论如何将告诉我们答案。 大的拍卖 11 Hilda Crescent, Hawthorn (Sam Wilkinson, Kay & Burton), 成交, $6,030,000, 3位竞拍者 26 Thanet Street, Malvern (Justin Long, Marshall White), 成交, $5,105,000, 2位竞拍者 9 Scotsburn Street, Hawthorn (Antony Woodley, Marshall White), 成交, [...]
Big Stock, Big Crowds, Big Results – it continues on.

Big Stock, Big Crowds, Big Results – it continues on.

Big Stock, Big Crowds, Big Results – the first of back to back Super Saturdays shows that the Inner Melbourne market is still rolling on. Bidderman down a tad from last week, but on huge auction numbers this week and next week, that is not significant. Clearance Rates still a whopping 80+%. Lets just focus on Bidderman for one [...]
Low Stock Auctions today – but a huge fortnight ahead!

Low Stock Auctions today – but a huge fortnight ahead!

The market continues to rock along (increase in Bidderman to 2.8). Look at the volcanoes today and we are coming into two huge weekends of action. Bidderman is defying gravity, by actually rising in a stock increasing market. However, lets see how Bidderman the Superhero goes next week and Super Saturday the following week. Speaking of stock [...]
Understand the effect “Chinese Buyers” have on your market and learn strategies to deal with it

Understand the effect “Chinese Buyers” have on your market and learn strategies to deal with it

    The Chinese Phenomenon – Case Studies References: 1) Here is a link to a sample of 500 (Five hundred) homes we have bought recently – you decide if we are qualified to make the comments we are making http://www.james.net.au/homeratings/houses_bought.php?token=LJbnmFauW3 2) Here is a link to the 5000 (Five thousand) auctions we have reported on – you decide if we [...]
The Rise of the Duck

The Rise of the Duck

Hey, just when you started to think it was getting boring – you may, just may be in for a surprise over the next few weeks. So what happened this week? 1. Some buyers were still getting smashed by a strong Bidderman on the A-graders (Price, Property or Position) 2. Some buyers paid big numbers on some pass-ins – surely not [...]
The land was worth less with a nice home on it!

The land was worth less with a nice home on it!

James Market News Lite again. Talk of a quietening market, in a our opinion, is a little premature on what we saw today. Yes, clearance rates are down – but that is normal for this time of the year, as the real quality auction stock doesn’t come out in large numbers until either side of the [...]
The New Normal

The New Normal

James now Smartphone Optimised for easier reading – click horizontal bars in top left hand corner of  iPhone James Market Summary 6.00 pm Saturday May 23rd $M+ Clearance Rate 79% (29 auctions) Bidderman 2.4 Ducks 10% Lone Rangers 14% Norms 48% Volcanoes 28% $M+ Market remained very strong. Significant drop in Bidderman – Is today a statistical anomaly or market easing or indeed simply more buyers placing more [...]
It’s Easy to Throw in the Towel – Don’t.

It’s Easy to Throw in the Towel – Don’t.

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 93% on the 29 auctions we covered. The James Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement was at 3.2. Overall Summary of Melbourne’s Million Dollar-Plus Auctions: Ducks ($M+ auctions with no bidders) 7% Lone Rangers ($M+ auctions with one bidder) 11% Norms ($M+ auctions with 2 [...]
50% of the homes are still being bought by local buyers – there are solutions

50% of the homes are still being bought by local buyers – there are solutions

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 72% on the 18 auctions we covered. James Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement was 3.1. Market Summary – Market News Lite Version There have been auction interruptions all April due to three of the four Saturdays being attached to holidays – two past with Easter [...]
The Volume at the Top End is Mindboggling – On and Off Market

The Volume at the Top End is Mindboggling – On and Off Market

$3 million-plus market is now driving markets at the lower levels: The Higher the Asking Price the more Bidders. Our overall Inner Melbourne market is being driven by Overseas Interest (of course not on every home) – we all know that. But what is of further interest is the flow on effect to the lower parts [...]
Some Chinese buyers have worked out agent quoting, but many local buyers appear to have not.

Some Chinese buyers have worked out agent quoting, but many local buyers appear to have not.

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was 90% on the 30 auctions we covered. James Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement continues to be through the roof on big stock numbers at 2.9. Hello, did we write 90% on big auction numbers  and Bidderman nearly 3 – is this real? [...]
WOW – 50% of the auctions we covered today were Volcanoes.

WOW – 50% of the auctions we covered today were Volcanoes.

At 6.00 pm on Saturday, the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne’s $M+ property was another mind boggling 86% on the 29 auctions we covered. James Bidderman, our bidders per auction measurement was 3.0. These numbers are late 80’s or 2007 sorts of stats. Overall Summary of Melbourne’s Million Dollar-Plus Auctions: Ducks ($M+ auctions with no bidders) 15% Lone Rangers ($M+ [...]
Boroondara Weekly

Boroondara Weekly

Melbourne’s Land Influences Question: Which suburb in Melbourne is having the greatest influence on land values across all of Melbourne? Is it Toorak, Brighton, Hawthorn or is it Albert Park? These are very influential suburbs and more expensive than the suburb we think is Melbourne’s most influential land value suburb, but it is not any of these. No, Melbourne’s [...]
Boroondara Weekly

Boroondara Weekly

78-80 Mount Street, KEW BOUGHT* RANGE – $4,617,200 – $5,145,850 Auctioneer Steve Abbott is poolside. He notes the strong prices being paid in Kew and the unprecedented demand for the suburb’s schools. As he calls for bids the spa kicks in and gurgles loudly. Steve may have hoped the auction would bubble along accordingly, however, this was [...]
The Top of the Top End has begun with a Volcano Vapour Trail

The Top of the Top End has begun with a Volcano Vapour Trail

Welcome to 2015 $3m plus buyers. Wow what a start. The Top of the Top End has begun with a Volcano Vapour Trail – there is no other way to describe it. Check out the auction results below if you think we are exaggerating. 4 bidders in Middle Park over $5m, 3 bidders at $7m in [...]

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