Ringing the Bell: The Market Has Turned

Despite a surprisingly negative one-off set of stats today, we are making the call: We’re doing an Anthony Green. We’re ringing the bell. The Melbourne property market has turned. Its what we have felt all year and in markets, feelings count!

It actually turned in February, got trumped pre-Easter and then stumbled mid-year, burst back in spring. Now easing slightly into Christmas—that’s seasonal, not structural. The freefall is in our minds officially over. (check out our graphical interpretation below)

What’s Really Happening

Four clear up-markets in 2025. Not dramatic, but definitive. We’ve eased past neutral into first gear—moving forward, slowly, sometimes up.

This is a disciplined, discerning market. If you price well, you’ll get interest. If not, you won’t.

The Numbers

Today’s 55% clearance rate is misleading without context. Here’s what matters:

• No bidders = zero chance of selling

• One or more bidders = 75% chance of selling

The key details:

• 9 homes sold under hammer, average 3.3 bidders—that’s fire

• 18 homes didn’t sell, 12 bidders total—0.66 bidders each—freezing

Same day. Same buyer pool. Five times more competition for sold properties.

For buyers: Poor homes attract no interest—why buy them? Good homes require competition—unlike last year.

The Buyer Pool

Smart buyers are back, chasing value, prepared to compete.

Last year, bidding volcanoes were rarer than an eruption of Vesuvius. This year, there are quite a few Etnas.

This week at James Buyer Advocates: six serious inquiries over $5M, all verified, all engaging properly. Haven’t seen that since pre-2022.

What Now

The pre Christmas market will bring seasonal softening, due to stock increases of recent sells and nervous 2026 sellers bringing say an off market campaign forward. Normal.

If you price correctly, your chance of selling however still remains high. Ask above market and you’ll likely sit.

Buyers there is opportunity now and advice is why wait…..a bargain you say…….we think those days have past.

Compared to Christmas 2024: chalk and cheese. Then—struggle and pessimism. Now—conversation and movement.

Our Take on Reality

We’re not in a premium market. We’re in a better market.

Many sellers today priced at premium despite property issues. Wrong.

Some buyers thought they just needed to show up. Also wrong.

Price correctly, present well, you’re in the game. Miss the market, you’ll sit (buyer or seller).

The turn is real. The momentum is building. Melbourne’s top-end property market is back in business—albeit still nervous.