March 9, 2026
Last Thursday.
About $17 million worth of property.
Three very same but different (Aldi) lessons for buyers.
I’m Mal James.
This is James Buy Sell Advocates.
And today, Saturday March 7, we’re talking about real capital growth from the buyer’s point of view in top-end Melbourne.
Getting the right home selection can still be an 8% per annum compounding decision over your neighbour, even when headline growth may actually be closer to 4%.
And this doesn’t change whether you are:
- a first home buyer at $1.5m
- trading up at $3m
- or playing in the big leagues at $6m–$8m
The numbers work and the noise around the maths right now is deafening.
8% is still the number – even if real growth is only 4% – because that is 8% better than a home bought poorly, renovated badly and losing value at –4% per annum.
Yes, an increasing number of homes are deflating in value over the last five, and in some cases ten years.
That’s a new phenomenon for many.
One you should pay attention to if a higher proportion of your family wealth is tied up in your family home.
But today no theories. If you want those, read the past few Marketnews pieces.
Today is purely practical.
Growth from the buyer’s chair.
- Last Thursday. Three Buyer Stories.
Last Thursday James Buy Sell Advocacy was directly involved in 3 buys circa $17m.
They represent the full spectrum of today’s market.
- Armadale — a miss
- Eaglemont — a get
- Balwyn / Deepdene — a stall
Three suburbs.
Three price brackets.
Roughly $4m, $6m & $8m property levels.
Three very different lessons for buyers.
And a most dangerous story for buyers is Armadale. So, let’s start there.
- Armadale Volcano. Flying $1.3m Past Reserve
The Most Dangerous Sale For Buyers In A Long Time
Why?
- For agents longing for the golden days of rising prices…
- For sellers searching for a golden crumpet of hope…
- And for the real estate media always hungry for a golden headline…
37 Armadale Street (Oli Booth of Kay and Burton – quiet, respectful achiever – a real up and comer) delivered all three.
Late Thursday evening.
EOI brought forward in home auction.
A fiery bidding fight after we put it on the market above quote at $7m.
The result?
$1.3 million above reserve.
Cue the headlines.
“Armadale smashes the ceiling.”
“Explosive bidding.”
“Market back.”
And technically…
They could be right.
But for buyers? Mmmmm
- Most of the Above Gold… is Fool’s Gold.
Because this was a huge outlier.
And what happens after results like this is predictable.
Over the long weekend:
- sellers will talk about it at BBQs
- agents will quote it at Monday sales meetings
- comparable homes will suddenly claim they are “like Armadale”
And a whole wave of properties that have sat unloved for months will suddenly try to ride the noise.
Buyers will cross paths with those stories again and again.
Advocates will be suggested “secrets” at a million $ more than last week.
The volume of that noise will be loud.
But smart buyers should hear it, process it, then park it.
It was a big, no a huge result. We saw maybe 8, but not flying past like this did!
But below is the growth reality.
- The Growth Reality
Here are the numbers behind the story.
Previous sale
$4.685m in 2018
Sale price
$8.3m in 2026
Headline growth
7.41% per annum
But.
Estimated renovation
$1.5m minimum – possibly closer to $2m.
Let’s say $1.75m.
Adjusted base value
about $6.5m
Sale price
$8.3m
Real growth
3.1% compounding.
Yes — still a very good result in the 2026 market.
But in truth, this was an explosive auction, one of the strongest I’ve seen in a few years at this level.
The general consensus number beforehand was around $7m.
- We thought it.
- Another buyer thought it.
- The agent and vendor thought it.
At that number (7) the growth would have been less than 1% per annum.
In my opinion (yes not fact) that is the real story of this exceptional A-grader.
That final premium came from:
- the quality of the renovation
- the rarity of the asset
- competitive tension created by the campaign.
Yes, it was a volcano of drama with a third bidder literally running through the front door and joining the auction mid-way…..unannounced.
Bang. The price exploded.
But for buyers, our main constituency at James Buyer Advocates, this is simply what happens in any market with some A-graders and a great campaign.
It’s one in a hundred.
Not runaway market growth.
Look at the similar-quality home still unsold in the same street at 47.
Or the one in Glendearg Grove that remains unsold.
37 Armadale (see our video) was special and that distinction matters enormously for buyers.
Apologies to our clients – we gave advice to $8m – even we didn’t predict the amount of possible lava flowing from this volcano
- Eaglemont Better, One We Didn’t Lose
We stepped into the deal late.
There were three buyers circling.
- One weak.
- One strong.
- And us.
The home had previously been marketed too high and failed to sell.
But when the vendor adjusted the price slightly…
Competition appeared immediately. Liz Walker strong managing sale agent.
This is one of the key lessons in Melbourne right now.
Price right and buyers show up.
The deal completed just over $4m.
Again, the headline could read:
“Strong result above $4 million.”
True.
But the deeper story matters more.
Previous sale
$2.647m in 2017
Renovation estimate
$750k
Adjusted base
$3.4m
Nine years later the growth is 2% compounding p.a.
Solid. But far from spectacular.
- Balwyn / Deepdene - The Slow Oil Leak
The third story is the one many sellers don’t want to hear and perhaps some impatient buyers ditto.
It’s the story of inactivity due to price, seeping across the suburbs of growth, like a dastardly oil leak into a once pristine natural pond.
The property had been on the market a long time – it has many friends in this area in 2026.
Originally, the ambition on this one was $5.8m–$6m.
Reality intervened.
The property is now with us (buyers) and them (sellers) in a polite and respectful s…fight under $5.1m.
Previous sale of this home
$4.88m ten years ago
Renovation
none
Tired presentation.
That’s less than 1% annual growth if this deal consummates.
And here’s the kicker.
The vendor had previously received written offers of:
- $5.3m
- $5.4m
They declined them.
This is what happens when markets soften.
You say no to yesterday’s price.
The market eventually gives you tomorrow’s number.
In 2026, it’s often lower.
- Melbourne’s Top End Arctic Tundra
If you want a picture of Melbourne right now…
Imagine our wide brown land as an arctic tundra.
Across that frozen growth landscape sit hundreds of sellers.
Some have been stuck there for years.
You can see bits of them sticking out of the ice…
trying to move…
trying to twist…
faking a smile…
but unable to progress.
Because their expectations are nowhere near the market.
Life is standing still.
And for some…
Going backwards.
Of course, it is the same for many buyers …..its two to tango.
But there are winners who adapt to the new environment and release the shackles.
- The Buyer Lesson - 8 Still Matters
Despite the noise.
Despite the headlines.
Despite the frozen tundra.
The core principle remains.
Good property selection compounds at a better rate over time.
But achieving that requires discipline.
At James Buyer Advocates we focus on:
Property
Can the asset be improved through renovation or design — and at a cost far lower than most people assume?
Land
Does the block offer long-term scarcity?
Position
Is the street and location a genuine or gentrifying A-grade?
Price
With many homes having only one bidder – you – do you truly understand the market number when you have no social proof?
Timing
Are you entering the cycle in the right way? …….. off-market or attractive quote?
Asset allocation
Does the property fit your broader wealth strategy?
Modern wealth building isn’t about dramatic leaps.
It’s about 1% improvements.
Small advantages.
Repeated consistently.
Riding the rising tide…
while avoiding the oil spills.
If your $4m home grows by $2m in ten years, while your neighbour spends $2m renovating a stagnant asset, the maths becomes obvious.
You are effectively 8% compounding ahead.
Even if half that difference its still $200,000 per year ahead – tax-free.
Don’t abdicate growth thinking, like the masses did (maybe even me as well) when everything appeared to be running away.
In a stagnant market, smart decisions can create real wealth or just as important, protect it.
- The Real Ones
I’m Mal James.
For more than 25 years I’ve worked with buyers and sellers across Melbourne’s top end and been involved in property for over 40 years across multiple cycles.
If I can help you navigate this interest-rate shifting, AI-driven, geopolitically uncertain and psychologically complex market, my number is always open.
Behind every property headline…
there are real buyers and real sellers looking for real solutions.
And those are the only stories that matter.
The real ones.
Mal James
0408 107 988
mal@james.net.au
Footnote: After many weeks of hard-fought negotiations, the Deepdene property was secured today – the agent Helen Yan is one of the toughest cookies to come up against – all sweetness, niceness and shyness but bloody tough – working for the seller. Well done, Helen… only a few weeks in therapy and I will be ok.
Another enjoyable week or work with Kathy, Randall and Sim and thank you Luke and Dennis. Also thank you to L&K, J&K and M&G for your trust and support.
AI & Ratings Policy – Mal James
Our Philosophy on AI
At James, we are strong believers in the intelligent use of AI for analysis, automation, and expanding options.
AI formed a significant part of my face-to-face Masters completed at RMIT in 2024. Beyond real estate, we use AI within our Sub-Saharan Child Surgery Program, which employs many people and has now helped more than 1,400 children access life-changing surgery.
I have been an advocate for 25 years. The internet transformed our industry. Mobile phones accelerated it. AI is now doing the same.
Technology changes tools. It does not replace judgment.
Like the internet and mobile phones, AI has positives and negatives. Our responsibility is to use it with integrity, restraint, and clarity of purpose.
How We Use AI in Our Property Ratings
- Property Selection
Properties are chosen by us based on merit and client relevance.
If a client requests it, we will load up and share the rating we would have shown them privately.
We do not publish homes where we are actively representing a buyer. - Physical Inspection – No AI
I personally attend every property where you see a rating.
I have done so for 25 years.
Good advocacy still means going to the home.
I record a video on site.
No AI is used in the recording or in forming my opinion.
- Written Ratings – My Words
All opinions and concepts are mine.
AI is used only to:
- Transcribe the video.
- Structure and format my words.
- Create a thumbnail image.
- Assist in layout production.
The AI is restricted to:
- My spoken transcript.
- My Marketnews articles.
- My Property Ratings book.
- Our internal data.
It does not generate new opinions. It organises mine.
- Automation & Publishing
AI automation assembles the webpage draft.
Sim in our office reviews, checks, and approves all content before publication.
Human oversight remains essential.
- What We Publish
We are free to comment on any home published here.
Off-markets and properties where we have active buyer representation are not published.
Our Standard
AI supports our efficiency.
It does not replace inspection, judgment, independence, or advocacy.
We remain accountable for every rating you see.
AI & Marketnews Articles
All Marketnews concepts are mine.
I speak my thoughts – sometimes into one large language model, sometimes several. My preferred tools are Claude and ChatGPT. I ask them to produce a summary using only:
- My spoken concepts
- My previous Marketnews articles
- My established frameworks and ideas
I do not ask AI to create new opinions.
I ask it to organise mine.
Typically, several versions are produced. I then:
- Read them carefully
- Edit heavily
- Combine the strongest elements
- Refine the argument
- Adjust tone and clarity
- Spellcheck
- Approve and publish
What you read is my thinking.
AI simply helps structure it more clearly and, hopefully, more enjoyably for you.
Why We Do It This Way
Clarity matters.
For 25 years I have developed frameworks, philosophies, and pattern recognition about Melbourne property. AI helps me express those ideas with greater precision and efficiency but it does not replace lived experience, inspection, negotiation, or judgment.
AI improves readability.
It does not create belief.
The thinking remains human.
The responsibility remains mine.
An Open Invitation
If you ever feel an article lacks clarity, depth, or alignment with what you expect from me, I welcome the feedback.
Technology should enhance connection – not distance it.
Mal James
0408 107 988
James Home Ratings
Architectural Kathy
I rated some truly great homes this week. Bendigo Avenue in my Top 5 of all time.
- Click Address through to completed James Home Rating
- Older Ratings? - Google full street address to see if we have released one publicly
Trekking: As you get a little older, finding the right trekking companions gets more interesting — but the adventures don’t.
This July I’m heading to the Alta Via 2 (including the via ferratas) in the Dolomites, a week on the Kungsleden in Arctic Sweden, and the Laugavegur in Iceland all hut/refugio based.
I’m perfectly happy walking solo (you meet wonderful people in the huts), but I’m always open to a good companion or two/few. Next year I’m planning Alta Via 1 & 3, the Matterhorn Circuit with a ride in between on the Glacial Express to Zermatt – book my own stuff.
If you’ve got a few long treks under your belt or this seems a good idea *as long as you are fit they are not technical and easy peasy but a self-starter and fancy a coffee/wine, get in touch.
Mal 0408 107 988 mal@james.net.au
