Divergence
Saturday 4th of December 2021
Gina, Maddie, Phoebe, Sim, Kathy, Mal
Because of photos and homes. Marketnews always looks better on a desktop or tablet.
October Clearance Rates were in the 90’s.
December’s are in the 60’s.
Market change.
October Pass-in snapshot
December Pass-in snapshot
Our most recent insta posts show we have a heavy focus on buying right now. Our most recent (yesterday) 5 Banool Road Surrey Hills (Mark Rathgeber) before auction.
However, this week’s marketnews is about sale management via James Buy Sell multi-listing (multiple agents).
The homes our clients are offering are mostly off-market (not advertised anywhere else).
Also, yesterday in collaboration with our clients, James Buy Sell and Marshall White completed (under contract) the sale of 1 Willow Malvern within quote range. (Nicole French)
The market has changed.
Overall, there are fewer buyers per home than immediately post Lockdown 6.
Some say an easing of 5% in the last month - that is fair. (Michael Armstrong of Kay and Burton’s, Monday Morning Snap two weeks ago – good summary).
This easing is also to be expected.
Demand is down and Supply is up, so that means Price is ?
Yes, down.
Why?
No one reason, it’s a combination of things.
- More stock - And that feels the biggest reason and that occurs every November since Adam was a boy. And it’s not only more stock on-market – we are knee deep in off-markets or next year’s homes getting ready. Buyers can sense this and therefore they don’t feel the urgency of now now now they felt in October.
- Fatigue – as a city we are traumatised and many who didn’t buy or sell in October on the adrenalin rushes have now got to the had a gutful stage and they have put the cue in the rack until next year.
- As well the pundits, banks and predictors have started to tell their fiction stories again and the media with little to do are reporting these with the usual misguided reverence. The bedtime fables are seemingly largely negative of the future. Ok, they were last year as well - they got it wrong in 2020. They got it wrong in 2019 and 2018 and 2017 as well - chances are they may get the 50/50 coin toss right eventually and give themselves a pat on the back for a 20% correct fairy tale prediction rate.
We think a negative market right now is a generalization. We see things more as the normal ebb and flow and to give you some perspectives we have revisited our Lockdown Price Guide in Graph 1 below. What we are seeing may be no more than a flesh wound or the usual November itchy rash.
In Graph 2 with the REIV help we have given you the longer term bigger picture on the median movements of Toorak, Brighton, Albert Park and Hawthorn. It really does show strong surges since late 2019 – and you could be adding 20% onto those markets during Lockdown. BUT perhaps you are missing the mark to be adding 50% onto your home’s value over the last 5 years as you forgot about the Grand Canyon price drop of 2018.
The exciting thing about our industry, it’s like the horse races and the footy you never know for sure. We feel we will have to wait until Labour Day weekend 2022 to call it definitively one way or the other and our bet says the market will definitely……… (sorry, ran out of ink).
On the flip side, we bought an off market this week that broke records – well done Kathy Malcolm and Dave Oster. Marcus and Nicole also broke records in Rowland St Kew. Sarah Case and Warwick Anderson with no car parking got another huge East Melbourne number. And the ever-reliable Scott Patterson and Bec Edwards blew all expectations out of the water for a south facing, Grace Park home, when you consider the Hilda result only a few weeks before. Simon Gowling has done it again – another almost $10million auction in Albert Park. Andrew Hayne and Fiona Ansell Jones push the Wheatland Road Malvern record even higher halfway between $6.5m and $7.0m or near on $12,000 per improved sqm WOW. So yes, absolutely a number of sad sacks hanging around with no Christmas filler, but records are still being broken on the A-graders with interest.
Santa isn’t dead yet, a few of his reindeer are just a little tired and partially traumatised.
This week we suggest stay balanced if you want to buy and sell.
A-grade Top End is still alive and well, merely back to some sort of “normal”.
Suburbs with sales over $5million reported in the last month
Albert Park, Armadale, Ascot Vale, Balwyn North, Brighton, Canterbury, Carlton, Carlton North, Caulfield North, East Melbourne, Essendon, Hawthorn, Hawthorn East, Kew, Malvern, Middle Park, Malvern East, South Yarra, St Kilda West, Toorak and Wheelers Hill.
Lifestyle areas with sales over $5million reported in the last month
Fairhaven, Flinders, Glenlyon, Lysterfield, Merricks North, Red Hill, Safety Beach, Sorrento.
In 2022 and beyond many are looking to combine the new and the old – to combine space and size and sky with convenience to schools, friends, work and shops.
Timeless Big Spaces
In 2022 and beyond many are looking to combine the new and the old - to combine space and size and sky with convenience to schools, friends, work and shops.
To live a different way in a familiar place.
Many are looking to combine classic spaces that can be updated easily (at minimal cost) - refreshed at any time into the future, whilst still maintaining the exquisite light, flow and feel of a truly original design. Recycle. Reuse. Climate Respect.
Classical Spaces. Timeless.
It’s hard to believe this home is 20 years old – a testament to its design and its build. Live in as is – update to reflect your art, your world. From the moment you walk through the front door you are offered paths of real choice. Left formal, right informal, up private.
More and bigger choices. You could take the Ponderosa back to its minimalist roots or completely transform via a new kitchen, engineered floorboards, freshened stone. Whatever you choose it would be minimal time, cost and council permissions as the current footprint in relation to the sun, connection indoor/outdoor and proportions are perfect.
Our clients have chosen to change nought since they bought, except to acquire some rear land and make a paint change here or there.
On a summer’s morning this Russell Casper architectural family home is fresh and zings.
On a summer’s evening you just relax with friends and family by the pool in a Rick Eckersley garden - wow.
Home flow is effortless and uncrowded.
Moments from Anderson Park – but you don’t have to go - cricket – basketball – in the backyard - self-cleaning pool and trampoline - huge entertaining, seamless connections - all orientated to the north.
Big land size.
In fact, everything is big. The bedrooms are big - the living spaces are big - the garage is big - the lifestyle is big. You know when you get up in the morning and you want some freedom – yeah - well even the walk-in robe and ensuite are big.
The buyer may well be an art connoisseur……. but equally could be a family of Carey, Scotch or Bialik or Camberwell Girls or Boys, St Kevin’s, St Catherine’s or mixtures of both. All the local primary and secondary schools are easy access.
So, what’s wrong with this home? The current clients have been called interstate with a job opportunity and what they have found wrong with the home is………. they have to leave.
Private Light Alive Big Flowing Spaces
For appointment James Tostevin 0417 003333 Hamish Tostevin 0408 004 766
What does it all mean if you are buying or selling?
It means your focus really must become A-grade PPP‘s.
You either buy/sell A-grade Position or A-grade Property or both.
If neither is available then you only have A-grade Price left to transact well.
Albert Park
2016 Off-market: Bought $3,650,000
Renovated
2021 Auction Today: Sold $9,175,000
Ben Manolitsas (quality young agent)
Albert Park - The Millionaire Factory
These are the Top 5 auction sales in all of Inner Melbourne in the last 5 weeks.
Notice a Position connection?
Is there any doubt as to our city’s most expensive land per sqm?
Trophy Home South Yarra
SOI: $4,000,000 being updated
What James Buy Sell said when buying it:
A home of immense charm and class and not one that repeats itself on a regular basis.
Now selling through Marcus Chiminello 0411 411 271
Golden Mile Elwood
What James Buy Sell said when buying:
Elwood A class Position. A feeling of space as block width near on 7.5metres. The architecture on this home for the most part works and in particular the finishes and landscaping have had serious thought. Garaging via rear laneway is as good as it gets for inner city living. Rated 749 on buying.
Now selling through Kaine Lanyon 0411 875 478
Spot the difference - look closely
40 Vincent Street Glen Iris
Sold Christmas 2020
Sold Christmas 2021
Only one difference? $370,000 on the $3m sale prices
An inviting decked terrace offering views to the lights of the MCG and the city skyline
Lynden Park Precinct Camberwell
North facing rear, sits proud on the street, 849 sqm, 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms and pool.
contracts available. move-in now.
Helen Yan 0404 078 588
Mundy on Mentone
We recently sold 22 Milan Mentone and Mundy is a beautiful ¾ version of it.
Here we have reimagined with Christmas lights this quintessential, ready to move-in family home close to beach, transport, shops and key Mentone schools.
It goes to auction in February. However, contracts are ready and appointments are being made.
SOI: $2.7m – $2.8m. Contracts Available.
Romana Altman 0414 804 270
Mentone $5m
Glen Iris $3m
Brighton $6m
Hawthorn $7m
Malvern East $6m
Middle Park $7m
1204 sqm – Views – Transport – Schools – Move in Ready
Tennis Court Toorak
off-market 0411 411 271
Contracts available
SOI: $20m – $22m available
Clients looking for a home before Xmas
Sky View! Borders a national park. Sweeping views of the city, the bay and all surrounds. All up a driveway you almost need a four-wheel drive WOW. 40 minutes from the CBD. Home/office, artists residence, family retreat.
SOI: $1.19m-$1.29m and contracts available
Corinne Sukroo (0419 805 915)
2022 Forthcoming Auction in Armadale
James Buy Sell rated this 798/1000 when buying.
2022 Forthcoming Auction/EOI in South Yarra
10 bidders when James Buy Sell bought this.
“ How many agents do you know who have bought then sold a home for over $16m in Bayside, over $14m in Stonnington and over $13m in Boroondara this year?
That’s the market you are thinking? Well, those same three homes were all well above current sworn valuations, 40% above what 4 agents told the seller or 30% above the sale price of a very similar home, in the same street, on the market at the same time. Two were off market and one was public. All three have settled - they were real.
But who are they? You never saw their faces on the advertising, their names in the paper or possibly never made a phone call to them. I have worked with them on some of their grand deals and it’s hard to explain what they do, except to say it’s very calm behind the scenes.
It’s probably easier to explain what they don’t do. They don’t allow communication breakdowns, they don’t allow BS to the client or to the agent, they don’t allow restrictive thinking. They do provide left field strategies that can only come from knowing intimately how a buyer and seller think, how a great deal works.
You have heard of the horse whisperers, these two are more the house whisperers, level heads, grand expectations but with low profiles and follow through - continuing to go when for most, the going has got too tough. Stoic and consistent. They are respectful and patient.
They are a pleasure to work with and as they have recommended me at times, I too return the favour in a very genuine way. They do what we agents cannot – they work with us all or they work with one, whatever is in your best interests.
Happy to work with them. Happy to talk to you confidentially about them.”
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