February 17, 2026

Whether you’re buying or selling, the best decisions come from real information.

 

This entire article is on Growth. Hopefully you will grow, even if your home hasn’t to the level you wanted in the last decade.

 

This article is raw and confronting, but 100% factual. Of course property is 100% emotional – but I suggest read it and move forward with better decisions, whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

 

When you stop chasing yesterday and start working with today, life improves.

Passed In: Address: 33 Rosedale Road, Glen Iris Auctioneer: Mike Millington Crowd: 85 Opening Bid: $3,900,000 vendor bid Passed in: $4,000,000 Bidderman: 2. It felt the right money and thought the auctioneer Mike Millington did an excellent job in difficult circumstances.

Good morning. I’m going to lose some of you with this one. That’s disappointing but OK. I’ve been losing readers for 18 months.

 

At our peak 2016-2021, about 10,000 of you would open these articles. Now it’s closer to 8,000. Subscribers down 20%.

 

That’s negative growth, and if you can’t stomach hearing about mine, you’re definitely not going to enjoy what I have to say about yours.

 

Growth Is Addictive. Negative Growth Is Confronting.

Growth feeds ego.
Growth feeds business confidence.
Growth feeds economies.

 

Australia depends on growth. Businesses depend on growth. Our personal sense of momentum often depends on growth.

So when growth disappears – or worse, reverses – it’s uncomfortable.

 

I feel it too. But let’s cut to the chase.

I went to an auction yesterday. Murray Street, Prahran. Nice little auction, well run (Duncan Fraser-Smith), three bidders, sold at $1.68 million. Solid result. Then the buyer’s advocate Andrew Date – (great advocate), leans over and says, “Mate, that sold in the $1.7ms ten years ago.”

 

I know I said, my company bought it.

 

Ten years ago, my company purchased that property for a client. They tried to sell in 2023. Didn’t sell. Tried again now. Sold for less than what we helped them pay off market a decade ago. Negative growth over ten years. That’s not a typo.

 

Of course tough on the client. Embarrassing for me to admit publicly? Of course it is. Does it sting? Yes. My client didn’t make money, and I would have liked them to.

 

I looked up the Prahran median – at the peak in 2016-17 it was $1,525,000. Currently according to the REIV it’s $1,492,500. So the suburb itself has gone backwards – median price wise.

 

And I’m telling you this because nobody else will – even though I wasn’t involved in the sale, I was in the buy and it hurts my ego a little to admit that.

Under the hammer: Address: 29 Murray Street, Prahran Auctioneer: Duncan Fraser-Smith Crowd: 40 Opening Bid: $1,550,000 On the Market: $1,600,000 Under the Hammer: $1,680,000 Bidderman: 3  Well run ethical no BS auction. Duncan Fraser-Smith could well be a force in future auctioneering – well done!

Let me give you the real figures. These are the suburbs we work in, and these are the Land Victoria government and REIV stats on house price medians (not the be all and end all, but these are not some cherry-picked sales):

 

Brighton: $3,050,000 (2017) → $3,180,000 (now). That’s less than 1% growth per annum over the best part of a decade. Less than one percent. You’d have done better leaving your money in a savings account. Actually, you’d have done significantly better.

 

Toorak: $5.5 million at the 2017 peak → $4.86 million now. That’s not low growth. That’s negative growth. That’s your property losing real value while the cost of everything else went up.

 

Albert Park: Growing at 1.65% per annum. Not disastrous, but hardly the doubling-every-seven-years narrative that gets trotted out at dinner parties.

 

Hawthorn: 2.2% per annum. The strongest of the lot, partly driven by the Asian-Australian market. Still underwhelming compared to what people assume.

 

Now, if you looked at the Domain graph or the REIV data, you’d think Melbourne property has been romping along. And at certain price points and in certain pockets, it has.

 

Trouble is most times when they list the stunning performers I have never even heard of the suburbs – ie. In the Herald Sun’s Top 20 suburbs that doubled last year I have not heard of No1 and had bought or sold in only 2 of the 20 suburbs (ever).

 

YES First-home-buyer territory has been growing. But if you’re sitting in a $3 million to $20 million property in the inner south-east, the eastern suburbs, Bayside – the high end – the last decade has been, to put it bluntly, rubbish AND in the last 5 years the median has gone backwards… Growth has been negative.

 

We Are Not In One Melbourne Market

There isn’t “the Melbourne market.”

There are:

  • Different geographic markets
  • Different price-point markets
  • Different housing-type markets

 

And the higher end of Melbourne — particularly parts of Bayside, Stonnington and Boroondara — has underperformed historically over the last decade.

This graphic covers all of Greater Melbourne

This graphic covers Top End Melbourne

Passed In: Address: 15 Cavendish Place, Brighton Auctioneer: Jonty Wells Crowd: 20 Opening Bid: $1,975,000 vendor bid Passed in: $1,985,000 Bidderman: 1. Bright and breezy auction that would’ve been tricky to keep momentum. Jonty did a really good job!

I am standing here on a pulpit BUT I am not pointing at everyone else. My place in Brighton was worth mid-fours as a development site five years ago – Warleigh Grove. It’s probably worth high threes now. I don’t think I have done anything wrong.

 

BUT here’s what that means in practical terms: I want to help my kids into houses. If I sit around for another ten years waiting for $5 million, I could be waiting while the entry-level properties they need are climbing further away. The gap isn’t closing, it’s widening.

 

So I’ve made a decision. I’m selling. Moving to Mordialloc. Buying something modest near the beach. Wiping out debt. Removing the pressure of mortgage and tax payments from a couple of divorces and my own incompetencies and helping my kids into their homes without crippling interest rate pressure (1 down and 2 to go).

 

Does that mean I’ve given up? No. It means I’ve stopped kidding myself…..I’m still a few million better off.

 

The $2.7 Million Property We Sold for $2.1 Million

Over Christmas, we helped sell a property on the peninsula. We’d bought it for a client at $2.7 million. It sold for $2.1 million. That’s a $600,000 loss.

 

They were angry…….angry at me, themselves perhaps, the agents…..the world.

 

I feel sorry and yes it does affect you when you have been involved in a negative outcome. Sure I can list 100 positives ones and give you a gazillion antidotes about how we have shone in property transactions over the years right here now – but right now I don’t think that helps.

 

The clients needed to sell. The property needed to go. It wasn’t a good result and I feel for them. But they made the decision to face reality, and they moved on with their lives.

 

I could have buried that story. Many would. Most never tell you about their losses, only their wins. But right now in my opinion that is a huge problem for many – even the ones that have had incredible growth over the decades are stuck in their homes and not moving on because…..

If you’ve had your property on the market and it hasn’t sold, or you’ve pulled it off because the offers weren’t where you expected, perhaps this could help you:

 

You are not a special case. The market does not owe you the number in your head.

 

The reason your property hasn’t sold is almost certainly because your expectation is based on a graph that doesn’t represent your market.

 

The Domain median graph above tells one story. The reality of our graph James Buyer Advocates, high-end Melbourne tells another.

 

Those two stories haven’t lined up since part way through COVID.

 

If you bought a $5 million property in Brighton or Toorak in 2017, it probably is not worth $10 million today. It may have been in 2021. It might only be worth the $5 million you paid. That’s not a personal failing. That’s life.

 

Now, at this stage, most “smart” people start thinking: Well, why should we listen to Mal? Let’s go find someone who’ll bullshit us that our property is worth double. We’ll put it on the market, see what happens. Worst case, we can always drop the price later.

 

Have a look at the statistics. Life does not work like that.

 

Remember the numbers I’ve been publishing? After 16 weeks on market, 50% of properties hadn’t sold. Fifty percent. Failed. They haven’t got anywhere near the price they’re asking. Some haven’t received a single offer. And by going through that process, they’ve done three devastating things to themselves.

 

First, they’ve told the entire market what their property is not worth. Every buyer, every agent, every neighbour now has a data point that says “this property couldn’t sell at $X.” And that makes life incredibly difficult for the next couple of years. When you eventually do try again, you’re negotiating from a position of public failure. You’ll end up getting less than if you’d priced it right the first time. The statistics are showing exactly that.

 

Secondly and this is the one that really gets people, they’ve created an ego trap. They feel like they’ve failed. They feel like they’ve done something wrong. Their next step, whatever it is, becomes shrouded in negativity and second-guessing. They’re paralysed. And the whole time, the reality was simple: their property was only ever worth what it was worth.

 

And finally they’ve kissed good bye to $30,000 sometimes $100,000 in advertising and presentation costs that never had a chance of helping – but somebody’s name was still splashed around – somebody got benefit. 

 

The Ego Problem

Here’s what I’ve learned, and I’m including myself in this: ego and bad information are the two biggest obstacles to good property decisions ands results (just in front of lack of strategy)

Ego says: “I paid $X, so it must be worth more than $X.”

Ego says: “The neighbours got $Y, so I should get more than $Y.”

Ego says: “I’ll just wait. The market will come back.”

 

Maybe it will. Maybe in another ten years you’ll get your number. But what are you giving up in the meantime? What opportunities are you missing? What decisions are you not making?

 

Growth isn’t just financial. Growth is spiritual. It’s emotional. Sometimes the most financially painful decision is the one that sets you free.

 

What Actually Has Worked

I’m not saying everything is doom and gloom. We’ve been involved in some very strong transactions recently. Properties with good land, in great locations, with smart renovations — they’ve performed. We’ve just completed a substantial sale that took two years of work, and it was a good result for both buyer and seller.

 

The market isn’t dead. It’s selective. It rewards good decisions and punishes dumb ones. And the biggest dumb decision of all is refusing to accept where prices might actually be.

 

If you want to genuinely test where your property sits, or if you’re chasing that extra few percent, then seriously consider an off-market, multi-agent process. Go out and see if you can get extra and get on with your life.

 

Because there are plenty of great things in life beyond staring at a property listing that isn’t moving. I love property, but I also love travel. I love my kids. I love doing other things. I’m not going to sit here for the next five or ten years in a flat or negative market going “woe is me, my life’s negative.” No. And neither should you.

 

The Point of All This

I didn’t write this to be negative. I didn’t write it to hurt my seller advocacy part of my business, although it may. I wrote it because somebody needs to say it, and the people who should be saying it – the agents listing your property at inflated prices to win your business – never will.

 

This I am also saying for the buyer advocacy part of my business……there are a lot of great homes out there that we could buy, if you as a seller were within cooee of the market in 2026.

 

If you’re sitting on a property you need to sell, sell it. At the real price, not the fantasy price.

 

If you’re refusing to buy because you think the market’s about to crash, it doesn’t feel like it is. The upper end is over inflated yes….. so buy smartly. The lower end is still moving, and you’re falling further behind.

 

If you’re holding on because your ego won’t let you take a loss, ask yourself: what’s that ego actually costing you?

 

Thirty-three years I’ve been in my current home. I’m basically the last original person left in the whole area. Everyone else moved on years ago. It’s taken me this long to accept that it’s my turn.

 

If you need to move on, move on. Don’t let a number on a spreadsheet stop you from living your life.

Contributions also from Randall, Kathy and Sim…. the great James triumvirate who keep things all running so smoothly. Thank you Mal

AI & Ratings Policy – Mal James

 

Our Philosophy on AI

At James, we are strong believers in the intelligent use of AI for analysis, automation, and expanding options.

 

AI formed a significant part of my face-to-face Masters completed at RMIT in 2024. Beyond real estate, we use AI within our Sub-Saharan Child Surgery Program, which employs many people and has now helped more than 1,400 children access life-changing surgery.

 

I have been an advocate for 25 years. The internet transformed our industry. Mobile phones accelerated it. AI is now doing the same.

Technology changes tools. It does not replace judgment.

 

Like the internet and mobile phones, AI has positives and negatives. Our responsibility is to use it with integrity, restraint, and clarity of purpose.

 

How We Use AI in Our Property Ratings

  1. Property Selection
    Properties are chosen by us based on merit and client relevance.

    If a client requests it, we will load up and share the rating we would have shown them privately.

    We do not publish homes where we are actively representing a buyer.

  2. Physical Inspection – No AI
    I personally attend every property where you see a rating.
    I have done so for 25 years.

 

Good advocacy still means going to the home.

 

I record a video on site.
No AI is used in the recording or in forming my opinion.

  1. Written Ratings – My Words
    All opinions and concepts are mine.

 

AI is used only to:

  • Transcribe the video.
  • Structure and format my words.
  • Create a thumbnail image.
  • Assist in layout production.

 

The AI is restricted to:

  • My spoken transcript.
  • My Marketnews articles.
  • My Property Ratings book.
  • Our internal data.

 

It does not generate new opinions. It organises mine.

  1. Automation & Publishing
    AI automation assembles the webpage draft.
    Sim in our office reviews, checks, and approves all content before publication.


Human oversight remains essential.

  1. What We Publish
    We are free to comment on any home published here.
    Off-markets and properties where we have active buyer representation are not published.

 

Our Standard

AI supports our efficiency.
It does not replace inspection, judgment, independence, or advocacy.

We remain accountable for every rating you see.

 

AI & Marketnews Articles

All Marketnews concepts are mine.

 

I speak my thoughts – sometimes into one large language model, sometimes several. My preferred tools are Claude and ChatGPT. I ask them to produce a summary using only:

  • My spoken concepts
  • My previous Marketnews articles
  • My established frameworks and ideas

 

I do not ask AI to create new opinions.

 

I ask it to organise mine.

 

Typically, several versions are produced. I then:

  • Read them carefully
  • Edit heavily
  • Combine the strongest elements
  • Refine the argument
  • Adjust tone and clarity
  • Spellcheck
  • Approve and publish

 

What you read is my thinking.

AI simply helps structure it more clearly and, hopefully, more enjoyably for you.

 

Why We Do It This Way

Clarity matters.

For 25 years I have developed frameworks, philosophies, and pattern recognition about Melbourne property. AI helps me express those ideas with greater precision and efficiency but it does not replace lived experience, inspection, negotiation, or judgment.

 

AI improves readability.
It does not create belief.

The thinking remains human.
The responsibility remains mine.

 

An Open Invitation

If you ever feel an article lacks clarity, depth, or alignment with what you expect from me, I welcome the feedback.

Technology should enhance connection – not distance it.

 

Mal James

0408 107 988