March 21, 2026

Malvern East: 27 Anderson Road: Dean Gilbert and Susan McGlashan. Beaten today post auction @ $2.8m. $2.7m VB Pass-in. We offered $2.4m mid week.

Four auctions. Two weeks. Four misses.

And I wasn’t beaten by one person each time. I was beaten by two. On each one.

I could give you reasons. I could give you excuses. But at the end of the day – that’s on me.

Now hold that thought. Because here’s another number sitting right next to it.

By the time a top-end property hits six months on market, six months after the EOI, it has almost no chance of selling. Half are still unsold. The data is that blunt.

Homes are still being contested at auction when priced correctly. And homes are rotting on market for half a year when overpriced at an EOI.

How do both of those things exist at the same time?

Price. It is almost always price.

I’m Mal James, James Buyer Advocates.

And today is about how to actually move in this market.

Here’s another stat:

A dozen sales above $10 million in Boroondara and Stonnington over Christmas till today. Surprised?
$5 million sales at roughly two-thirds of the 2021 peak. The market isn’t gone, it’s just down.

But Sorrento and Portsea? In the toilet. 25% of COVID-peak volumes over the same Christmas period at the top end.

Unsold stock everywhere.

Even giving it away may not find a buyer, because there simply isn’t one.

Bayside is limping along under as lot of Top End stock but when you look at closely doing OK – possibly it was sans the Asian migration explosion of the last 2 decades and consequently hasn’t as far to fall.

Agents in Albert Park and Middle Park are still talking the high end up…. implying they are immune.

My stats show an actual drop off the COVID peak. I trust the stats.

And me personally? I just pulled my own home after an uninspiring off-market month. Not the agent’s fault. No buyers for what my home actually is, a less than perfect, obviously overpriced potential growth zone development site.

No point burning $30,000 on a public campaign to confirm what the market has already told me loudly.

Ready to move in, priced to sell, closer to the median of the precinct.

Selling

Highly priced, been to market and failed, needs renovation, development potential, quirky, lifestyle. Even at a giveaway price, sometimes there is simply no market.

Not Selling

Hampton: 76 Thomas Street Samuel McNeilage, Kate Strickland, Stephen Smith. On Market at $3m. Under the Hammer $3.08m. Didn’t get a bid in.

Under $1.5 million — still moving. Priced right, liveable, good agent. It sells.

$2 to $4 million — marshmallow. Soft, sticky, no firm ground. Sweet spots exist if the property is ready to go and the price is honest.

$4 million and above — thin. EOI clearance at 30%. One in three inside the campaign. Six months later, half still unsold.

These graphs are both right – the lower end on the left and the top end on the right.

Two forces built this market this millennium. One has disappeared.

In 2008, during the GFC, I watched buyers from Asia walk into Balwyn and Kew and reprice land on the fly. No hesitation. Bang, bang, bang. They didn’t just buy — they transformed the top end of Melbourne. That force, more than anything else, is why the graph went the way it went.

In 2016 — 30,000-plus FIRB requests. By 2021 — a trickle. Government taxes, public sentiment, China’s own property market retreating. Full on to full off in four years.

Right now in Balwyn – a dozen Georgian homes on market for a lot longer than three months. One has sold since we first reported it. our client bought it. The other fourteen? Still there.

Then COVID in 2020 and beyond turned the then retreating Asian supply-demand problem into a all in – all Aussie lifestyle speculative casino — temporarily disguising that the OS Asian buyer had already left the building.

Speculation entered.

Speculation exited. Real demand is what’s left. And today in 2026 real demand is considerably thinner at the higher end.

Three Agents. Thirty Seconds Each.

I asked Scott Patterson from Kay & Burton, Helen Yan from Ray White, and Andrew McCann from Jellis Craig the same questions. Short war or long? Top end outcome either way? Best advice right now?

The real pressure is in the $2 million to $7 million range. Those buyers are wealthy, but still rate-sensitive and confidence-sensitive. Above $7 million, fewer buyers—but some are opportunistic. His warning: quality still draws buyers, but vendors must not overreach.

Scott Patterson

This is not panic. It is delay. Buyers are still there, but they are slower. Campaigns stretch. Negotiations widen. Her point: focus on fundamentals, not headlines.

Helen Yan

Global instability may actually strengthen Melbourne’s long-term appeal. Safety. Lifestyle. Distance from conflict. His point: top-end Melbourne remains a global lifestyle asset over time.

Andrew McCann

Scott in full

• Do you see the war being short or long? Unfortunately, the unrest in the Middle East is likely to continue beyond the short term. This is creating global tension and uncertainty like nothing we have seen for a long, long time. The stakes are extremely high and the ramifications if things escalate are far reaching.
• If long, what happens to the Top End market? I think the middle market ($2m-$7m) will be affected the most by a long term war. It will not be great for the top-end market ($7m+) however buyers with bigger budgets may see it as an opportunity to upgrade whilst others are hesitating. Inflation is the big concern and the impact that will have economically. Over the years we have always seen buyers gravitate to quality listings no matter what the market conditions so I believe this will continue but Vendors have to be careful not to overreach with their price expectations.
• If short, what is the likely Top End outcome? Hopefully it will be a return to business as usual if the war is short term however I think the current crisis shows how quickly the local markets react and things can turn which exposes how vulnerable we really are to world events.
• And your best advice to buyers and sellers navigating disruption and uncertainty. Proceed with caution however don’t let this stop you from making decisions for the long term future for your family. Melbourne is poised for growth so once this disruption passes and we can get the economic management of Victoria back under control the only way is up for property values.

Helen in full

1. At this stage it is difficult to predict the exact duration. Geopolitical conflicts can evolve quickly, but they can also become prolonged depending on diplomatic developments. For property markets, the key impact tends to come from how the situation influences economic confidence, interest rates, and global financial stability rather than the conflict itself.

2. If the conflict becomes prolonged, high-end property markets may experience more cautious buyer behaviour. Wealthy buyers often delay major decisions during periods of global uncertainty. Historically, the top end of the market has tended to remain relatively resilient, as buyers in this segment are often less sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations. However, during periods of uncertainty, transaction activity may slow as buyers take a more cautious approach.

3. If the conflict resolves relatively quickly, market sentiment could stabilise and confidence may return. In that case, the top end of the market may continue its current trajectory, supported by limited supply, strong demand in desirable suburbs, and long-term lifestyle appeal.

4. For both buyers and sellers, the most important approach during uncertain periods is to remain focused on fundamentals. Buyers should assess long-term affordability and the quality of the asset rather than reacting to short-term headlines. Sellers should ensure pricing expectations are aligned with current market conditions and work with experienced professionals to manage the campaign effectively.

Best regards,

Helen

Andrew in full

• Do you see the war being short or long? I’m not really well qualified to say short or long.. but I would hope it’s short and have a personal view that it’s likely not long term.
• If long, what happens to the Top End market? I think the war/ and any global conflict only ever makes countries like Australia, and Cities like Melbourne more popular for overseas investment and the longer we have offshore conflict for, I believe the stronger our premium end of the market will be.
• If short, what is the likely Top End outcome? Long or short.. The fact we are seeing volatility in the middle east and other parts of the world will only continue to highlight how far removed we are from these situations and what wonderful lifestyle and security we offer here in Melbourne and Australia for the people who live here currently, the expat communities who start to reconsider options and those at the high end of the global market who would now consider Australia an incredible place to live and invest.
• And your best advice to buyers and sellers navigating disruption and uncertainty. We’ve experienced a lot of volatility since the COVID 19 Pandemic with war and international conflict, along with economic ups and downs and a roller coaster of an interest rate cycle. My advice to anyone who is looking to navigate a buying or selling decision is to remember the long term goal they have for their lifestyle and family needs and why they are currently “in the market” (whether that be an upsize, downsize or lifestyle and location change). Property is a long play and whilst an important investment to get right, the real goal with any sale or purchase should be to satisfy a better life and lifestyle so remain focused on the purpose and goal and think less about the volatility and things that are and will always be out of your control. Play the long game..

Fair. But first — what are you actually trying to achieve? Because you are one of three buyers right now.

The Speculator. First time in years you have genuine upper hand. This week I offered $2.4 million on 27 Anderson Street, Malvern East — guided at $2.7 to $2.95 million. It sold at auction for $2.8 million. My client saw value only in the land. The buyer saw value in the home. Both were right. Same property. Same day. $400,000 apart. That’s this market. Offer hard. Don’t apologise… It didn’t work this time but if you miss, go again… get your price and it may be a long way from the agents guide.

However please don’t buy rubbish to get a deal: A-grade position, strong land, long-term desirability. Get those wrong and you don’t just miss growth. You go backwards.

The Investor. Almost extinct. I am simply not getting these type of calls anymore. Why?

Property managers are haemorrhaging portfolios. If you must invest – go for cash flow, dual income, Airbnb yield, creative structure. Buy so well on price you create your own margin, your own long term capital growth. The market will not hand it to you.

The Family Upgrader. This is many of you. And this may be the best window in years, particularly if you’re a doctor, in finance, steady income, can actually or want to move.

A property that was $5 million may now be $4 million. Yours was $1.8 million, now maybe $2.2 million at a push. Your gap just compressed by $1.4 million.

That gap is what you trade when you upgrade. Selling at the resilient lower end. Buying at the falling top end. That’s leverage. That’s the whole game.

Don’t buy cheap. Buy well. Good street over great house in a bad street. Land content over new builds – a $10 million build may be worth $8 million today, let it owe you as little as possible.

Know the real market, not the advertised one. And know why you’re buying – lose that and you can get the price right and still make the wrong decision.

This week we have five new selling advocacy jobs – Camberwell, South Yarra twice, Balwyn, Hampton. The market is alive. But it is demanding something the good times never required.

Honesty. Precision. Patience.

Not what your property was worth in 2021. Not what the neighbour got eighteen months ago.

We can’t help you with that and in fact the stats are showing nobody can …..not even the greatest salespeople of all time (they will tell you who they are)

The market is not negotiating with wishful thinking but smart thinking is ok.

Realign – top-end growth over the last decade is closer to zero than any other number. We haven’t faced this since the GFC. And plenty of people bought well in the GFC. The two homes I’m trying to sell now were bought around the GFC.

Regulate – don’t pinball between panicked opinions. Stay steady on your plan.

Relocate rather than renovate – if your renovation is costing you $4 million for a $2 million rise in value, over three painful years, with kids getting older and a mortgage getting heavier – perhaps just don’t. Move sideways or slightly up. Better home. No blowout debt. And first class airfares with the family, school fees for free all for the next decade.

Reach – reach as hard and as far as you want to. I’ve missed four in a fortnight. I won’t miss them all the time. I don’t give up, I don’t even change much. The market is still full of quirks but it is falling and that means buying opportunities.

Why can’t you be in a better home for less money in this market?

That’s my genuine question to you.

I love this job. Even when it hurts a bit.

Sorry to my clients. Let’s learn and go again.

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AI & Ratings Policy – Mal James

Our Philosophy

At James we believe in the intelligent use of AI for analysis, automation and clarity.

AI formed part of my Masters completed at RMIT in 2024. Beyond real estate, we also use AI in our Sub-Saharan Child Surgery Program, which employs many people and has helped more than 1,400 children receive life-changing surgery.

I have worked as a property advocate for 25 years.

During that time: