March 16, 2026

The War on EOIs

Hundreds of Millions Sat Unsold via EOI in October 2025.

This week in Melbourne…
hundreds of millions of dollars more of top-end property is sitting unsold.

Not withdrawn.

Not passed in.

Just sitting.

In March 2026 Sellers Still Aren’t Listening and the results are worse.

Last week we looked at the buying side of the market. This week we return to the selling side.

And frankly, it feels a bit like a war report.

Because like wars… history is repeating itself. Sellers, once again, are not listening.

I’m Mal James.

This is James Buy Sell Advocates.

And today — Saturday March 14 — we’re revisiting one of the biggest issues in Melbourne property right now:

EOI campaigns that simply don’t work.

Last year we ran an analysis of Expressions of Interest campaigns across Melbourne. The results were confronting.

Only 29% had sold a week after close of EOI.

From February to now we conducted the same simple test.

We randomly selected 33 Expression of Interest campaigns closing now.

Different suburbs.

Different price points.

Different agents.

You can see them all listed above.

We waited – allowing an extra week for cooling off and argy-bargy, for results to work through, so as our clients could get an accurate clearance rate – just like an auction.

And this morning — March 14 — we checked again.

The results were clear.

Of the 33 properties:

Only 9 sold.

Which means the clearance rate wasn’t 40%. It wasn’t even the pathetic 29% of last Spring. It was 27%. Not higher than last year. Lower.

The Market Reality

February is traditionally one of Melbourne’s strongest selling months.

The market is fresh.

Buyers are active.

Momentum is high.

And yet.

Even in February.

Even in prime selling conditions.

EOI clearance sits at 27%.

Which raises a serious question.

Is it still the agents?

And this is where the story becomes uncomfortable.

Because at some point sellers have to ask a very simple question.

Why would you spend tens of thousands of dollars advertising your home… only to discover what it isn’t worth?

Why would you run a campaign designed to generate marketing…but not necessarily generate a sale?

History: For years, EOIs have been an easy campaign model.

They generate:

advertising
exposure
brand promotion for agents
vendor-paid marketing

But what they are not generating now is a sale.

Because unlike auction results, they are never properly tracked, the industry simply moves on from the EOI collateral damage.

But when you do track them…The picture becomes clear.

Is there a better way to sell than EOI?

During the exact period these EOI campaigns were failing — these properties, sale managed through a different approach, multi-agent on/off market did not sit unsold.

None remain unsold – yes some were tough deals but sold….

We’re now into the next wave. Off-market, multi-agent campaigns. $10m+ in Aspendale and East Melbourne. $3m+ in Kew, South Yarra, Balwyn, and Camberwell. Quietly.

Collaboratively. Minimal cost. Private one-on-one inspections.

And yes — some of these take time.

Here’s the part that should make you stop and think.

The only argument most selling agents make against this approach — besides "I don't want to do it because it's more work (one on one inspections) and I don't get my name in lights" — is that it takes longer.

Huh.

So let’s follow that logic.

An approach – which has a 100% sale rate (it won’t always but has during this period) – takes longer than a strategy where 27% of the properties sold…. so therefore we prefer to recommend EOIs to the clients and they pay the $30,000.

Say that again slowly.

We take longer to successfully sell at a lower cost, than a failed EOI takes to publicly fail at a higher cost….. AND

Sorry but that argument shouldn’t really survive contact with reality….. should it?

If you’re thinking about selling in May. Or in Spring.

At least consider a strategy that is actually working.

Instead of the usual routine. Ring one or two agents. Hear the same conversation. Stretch the carpet. Paint the wall. Add some mulch out the back. Spend $30,000 on advertising.

And then ask yourself one simple question. If 73% of EOI campaigns don't sell — how exactly is that advertising working?

At James Buy Sell we work with real agents using real strategies that deliver real results. Agents who collaborate. Agents who compete. Agents focused on selling the home — not marketing themselves.

You won’t see me on realestate.com.au.

But above are our results.

And if you think the numbers we’ve presented are wrong — call me out. Ask your agent to show you their data. Because shouting “not true” isn’t evidence.

In property, data matters.

Eg based on the above how would you handle an EOI where the agent asked you to offer above the quote…… when literally only 3% of results finished above the EOI quote. Data matters. Article on James Compass, Risk and Offer Navigation below

James AI – Ratings and Marketnews - click down for policy

AI & Ratings Policy – Mal James

Our Philosophy on AI

At James, we are strong believers in the intelligent use of AI for analysis, automation, and expanding options.

AI formed a significant part of my face-to-face Masters completed at RMIT in 2024. Beyond real estate, we use AI within our Sub-Saharan Child Surgery Program, which employs many people and has now helped more than 1,400 children access life-changing surgery.

I have been an advocate for 25 years. The internet transformed our industry. Mobile phones accelerated it. AI is now doing the same.

Technology changes tools. It does not replace judgment.

Like the internet and mobile phones, AI has positives and negatives. Our responsibility is to use it with integrity, restraint, and clarity of purpose.

How We Use AI in Our Property Ratings

Property Selection
Properties are chosen by us based on merit and client relevance.

If a client requests it, we will load up and share the rating we would have shown them privately.

We do not publish homes where we are actively representing a buyer.
Physical Inspection – No AI
I personally attend every property where you see a rating.
I have done so for 25 years.

Good advocacy still means going to the home.

I record a video on site.
No AI is used in the recording or in forming my opinion.

Written Ratings – My Words
All opinions and concepts are mine.

AI is used only to:

Transcribe the video.
Structure and format my words.
Create a thumbnail image.
Assist in layout production.

The AI is restricted to:

My spoken transcript.
My Marketnews articles.
My Property Ratings book.
Our internal data.

It does not generate new opinions. It organises mine.

Automation & Publishing
AI automation assembles the webpage draft.
Sim in our office reviews, checks, and approves all content before publication.

Human oversight remains essential.

What We Publish
We are free to comment on any home published here.
Off-markets and properties where we have active buyer representation are not published.

Our Standard

AI supports our efficiency.
It does not replace inspection, judgment, independence, or advocacy.

We remain accountable for every rating you see.

AI & Marketnews Articles

All Marketnews concepts are mine.

I speak my thoughts – sometimes into one large language model, sometimes several. My preferred tools are Claude and ChatGPT. I ask them to produce a summary using only:

My spoken concepts
My previous Marketnews articles
My established frameworks and ideas

I do not ask AI to create new opinions.

I ask it to organise mine.

Typically, several versions are produced. I then:

Read them carefully
Edit heavily
Combine the strongest elements
Refine the argument
Adjust tone and clarity
Spellcheck
Approve and publish

What you read is my thinking.

AI simply helps structure it more clearly and, hopefully, more enjoyably for you.

Why We Do It This Way

Clarity matters.

For 25 years I have developed frameworks, philosophies, and pattern recognition about Melbourne property. AI helps me express those ideas with greater precision and efficiency but it does not replace lived experience, inspection, negotiation, or judgment.

AI improves readability.
It does not create belief.

The thinking remains human.
The responsibility remains mine.

An Open Invitation

If you ever feel an article lacks clarity, depth, or alignment with what you expect from me, I welcome the feedback.

Technology should enhance connection – not distance it.

Mal James

0408 107 988

Anybody can miss a great home.

Anybody can pay too much.

In top-end Melbourne property, you don’t need experience to make a mistake.

That’s why we developed The James Buy Sell Navigation System – a structured way to guide both buyers and sellers through complex property decisions.

We’ve always had versions of it.

But this market which is unusually challenging combined with the rise of AI, has brought the system much more to the forefront of how we work.

The system has three instruments, each scored out of 1000.

Together, they help us interpret the market, rather than simply react to it.

The first instrument: James Ratings

Many of you already know this one – the system (ours) has been around for 20 years and its always been combined with foot-leather (hard work, we go to all the homes we rate); you can see the last few hundred below (public only, not off markets).

James Ratings assesses asset quality – the Position, Property and Price fundamentals of a home.

It helps determine whether a property is truly A-grade, average, or something in between, and it establishes a disciplined starting point for conversations around value.

The second instrument: James Compass

Compass assesses value – and therefore competition risk.

In simple terms, it helps answer one of the hardest questions in property:

How competitive will this campaign actually be?

Compass works a little like the MOSAIC risk-assessment model used in the United States to assess threats against judges.

It asks a series of structured questions over time, and those answers produce a competition risk score.

Take the above group of 33 homes offered via Expressions of Interest.

Only nine sold within the stated time frame.

But rather than focus on the negative, let’s look at the signals from the nine that did sell.

Every one of them was move-in ready — an increasingly important predictor in this market.

Five or six had limited competition, which aligns with what Bidderman would suggest in the current environment.

And only one exceeded the quote.

One.

That’s 3% of all EOIs (including the unsold ones) finishing above the quoted range.

Observations like these feed directly into Compass.

They help guide decisions on whether to move early, negotiate patiently, or step away entirely.

Which raises an interesting question.

Based on above how would you handle an EOI where the agent said he had real bidders and asked you to offer above the quote on a home needing renovation or for that matter even a move-in ready home…… when literally only 3% of results (and that was a special circumstance) finished above the EOI quote. Is this not a valuable use of Compass? Are you not talking thousands/millions of $s on the word of an agent, who by Victorian law must work in the best interests of your opponent, the other side?

The third instrument: James Horizon

Horizon looks at future wealth potential.

We don’t try to predict exact capital growth numbers.

Nobody can reliably do that over ten years.

For example, back in 2016, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted that many homes would show little, if any, capital growth over the following decade.

Like many people, I was riding the Asian immigration optimism wave and expecting strong continued growth.

But what Horizon can do is identify the characteristics that give a property the best relative chance of long-term capital growth.

Horizon compares a home’s long-term positioning against what we believe the future market norm will be.

In simple terms, it asks:

How well should this property perform relative to the rest of the market over time?

Together, Ratings, Compass and Horizon form the basis of the James Buy Sell Navigation System.

The exact questions inside each instrument remain ours, much like the craft of a skilled buyer or seller advocate. But the principle is simple.

First, assess asset quality.
Second, understand value and competition risk.
Third, consider long-term wealth potential.

Only then do we think a good buying or selling decision should be made.

Let me give you three recent examples from the past fortnight.

One home, north of $10 million, that we (clients) chose not to pursue.

And the salesman in me always pauses/misses a heartbeat when presenting negative evidence about a home you like… and the clients like….. but

While Ratings and Compass were reasonably supportive, Horizon pointed in a different direction, suggesting potential future value issues.

The client ultimately walked away.

And the property is still for sale. In fairness, I won’t name it.

The second home readers will know – Armadale Road.

It scored highly on Ratings and was off the charts on Compass for competition risk.

That’s why we moved early and aggressively.

But as predicted, the competition was strong.

And unfortunately we (clients) lost x 2.

The third example was a home in Balwyn.

Ratings was not overly complimentary.

Compass suggested limited competition.

Horizon was neutral long-term.

Which allowed us to adopt a patient strategy, gradually bringing the price down.

Ultimately, we bought.

There have also been some recent gains in how we approach both buying and selling.

AI (a subject I studied extensively during my Masters at RMIT) has become extremely helpful in analysing this type of data.

Particularly over the past 18 months, as agent (AI) behaviour and data quality have improved.

It’s now a key support in how we initially assess each agent (real estate), each property, and each scenario.

But in the end, it’s still humans making the decisions.

These are tools, but they are good tools, supporting logic, experience and intuition.

And it’s worth remembering something else.

The smartest agents should also be experimenting with AI…. And not just for spell-checking.

But for wargaming negotiation strategies with buyers and sellers, particularly in the high-end market, where the $ stakes are so high.

Which means our systems and our thinking at James, need to stay ahead of that too.

Hopefully next week will be a lot of fun.

We’ll go a little deeper into modern risk assessment in what is now clearly a very challenging market, particularly around value, offers and long-term growth, whether you’re buying or selling.

Next week in Marketnews — The War Edition…

Some of the best in the business share their thoughts on how to navigate this changing and uncertain market. Including insights from Andrew McCann of Jellis Craig and Helen Yan of Ray White, among others.

We’ll are also back looking at the market from the buyer’s chair.

I’ve been hearing more of: “Mal, buyer advocacy must be easy right now.”

Really, what are you smoking?

When 73% of EOI properties don’t attract a single bidder…
When negotiations can take months to move expectations by more than a million…
When the asking price is often nowhere near the true market value…

That’s not easy if you don’t want your client to pay too much, get a chance at growth and still buy if they want to.

Anybody can miss. Anybody can pay too much - no skill or experience needed.

That’s where real buyer advocacy actually begins.

Next week we’ll explore some truths.

Is your agent/advocate/family advisor telling you the market price truths?
Are they prepared to give you tough love if a price is miles off the mark?
Are they prepared to miss an easy fee by saying: “This isn’t where the market is on this.”

How do you do that –

and stay positive about a great home,
recognise that competition may still exist (a la last week – yes it was an outlier but….we missed)
and still negotiate over a few months if need be, the reality of the market AND get it.

Next week we’ll show you how the best buyers actually negotiate in this market… and how true market value is discovered.