Different Market. Different Opportunities.

While I’ve been gallivanting around Europe — Alta Via 2 in the Dolomites Italy, Kungsleden in Arctic Sweden, Laugavegur (Iceland) and most of the Swiss Tour de Matterhorn — Melbourne property has apparently become rather gloomy.

Interest rates. Taxes. Fewer buyers. Lower prices.

Yes.

We know. We’ve actually been talking about the change in Melbourne’s prestige market since around Cup Day 2021.

So rather than another article about what’s wrong, let’s talk about what you can do right.

Because changed markets create changed opportunities.

First, accept where we are

The Melbourne market that carried us for much of the past 30 years had some wonderful tailwinds

• wealthy immigration (much from Asia),
• economic confidence (Australia the miracle headlines),
• plentiful money supply (banks) and
• a very tax-friendly wealth culture around homes (negative gearing).

Those winds aren’t blowing like they used to, in fact they are not blowing at all.

And at the moment, broadly:

• Under $1.5m: plenty happening.
• $1.5m–$3m: more selective on price.
• $3m–$5m: challenging.
• $5m+: sometimes there’s a buyer but there appears to be no market.

Good or bad?

Neither.

It’s simply the terrain.

And after eight weeks and 750 kilometres walking mountains, I’ve become even less interested in arguing with terrain.

Work out where you are.
Work out where you want to go.
Then start with a guide, a map, a plan but start and watch the signposts along the way.

Buyers: this could be your moment

Particularly in the $3m–$5m range, I can’t remember buyers having this combination of choice, time and negotiating power for quite some time.

We completed a purchase this week.

Actually, we “completed” it for the third time this week.

Same house. Same buyer. Same seller.

We reached an agreed price. Our client wasn’t comfortable.

So we stopped.

Later, another agreement.

Lower.

Still not right.

So we stopped again.

Lower.

This week?

Agreement again.

Lower again.

The important point is that our client remained the best buyer and the seller still wanted to sell.

We remained calm enough to let the transaction find its level.

That’s good advocacy.

Not getting a deal done. Getting the right deal done.

But don’t confuse opportunity with cheap

Before leaving, we bought another property.

Quote around $3 million.

Purchase price?

>$4million.

Why?

Because it was special and there were competitors.

Scarce. Emotional. Difficult to replace.

That’s a market in two transactions.

One property comes down substantially.

Another flies $1 million above quote.

Contradiction?

Not really.

Property is individual.

Great buying isn’t paying less (although that is nice).

It’s understanding what something is worth to you, what your alternatives are and when to walk — or run towards it.

Buy better. Buy for longer.

This is where we think the opportunity becomes really positive.

Perhaps don’t use this market simply to buy a cheaper house (although thats perfectly ok). Perhaps use it to buy a better life.

Maybe think five or ten years rather than two.

Kids. Schools. Work. Garden. Bedrooms. Orientation. Land. Walkability. Family.

What are you actually going to need?

Changing homes is expensive, and we can no longer casually assume rising prices will cover every transaction cost or buying mistake.

If you only need something for two years, renting may be perfectly sensible.

But if you know roughly where you want to be and you’re flexible about exactly how that appears then there are some wonderful buying opportunities out there.