OOO

Saturday, March 29th, 2025

(Opinions. Options. Outcomes.)

Mal James

Buy Sell Advocate

0408 107 988

mal@james.net.au

Where to Begin?

A lot of what I felt in the market a month ago has turned out to be… less exciting.
A lot less exciting.

The air (and therefore the money) I thought might be pumping into the market has either stalled after the February pep, or quietly slipped away with the Trump bump.

Prices of many homes—not all, but a lot—have recently felt like they’re rolling along on half-flat tyres. Yes, there are more bidders—Bidderman is up from a limp 1.3 in Melbourne’s last market of 2024 to a slightly more respectable 1.6 in our first market of 2025—but it hasn’t delivered the impact I felt it might.

So where does that leave us?

If you’re a buyer, and the seller has met the market but you haven’t?
You’re unhoused. Someone else bought it.
If you’re a seller, and your price is still above the market?
You’re undealed… maybe even a little blamey or angry, watching others sell while you don’t.
If you’re an agent?
You might be flipping through your credible excuses phrasebook—trying to apologise, deflect, stay positive, and keep your job while your unsold vendors or unbought buyers ask, “So… what now?”

If you’re working with me?

Fair enough if I look a little less shiny right now.

Because the job people pay me for is the 3 O’s:

Opinions
Options
And ultimately… Outcomes

And while people want more, it’s not more opinions, or even more options. It’s more outcome.

And this March?
That’s been harder to deliver than I expected.

We came off a record February, into a difficult March—and our business has mirrored the market: volatile, sometimes unpredictable.

So… why?

And this is where I hope I earn my dollars.

Is “why” even the right question in Melbourne real estate right now?

Because when a seller asks why their home hasn’t sold, the quick, default response is:
“Your price is too high.”

And for buyers:
“Your offer’s too low.”

And yes, those may be true for some.

In fact, probably more true than my optimism from four weeks ago.

But does acting on that (lowering or increasing) automatically get you the deal or more importantly, the best deal?

Maybe something bigger is going on.

Maybe the market has undergone a structural shift since late 2021.

Some homes I expected to sell for $12M are now selling for $10M.

But if a home’s been held for decades, that drop is masked by the gain over time.

The reality is:
If two exchanges don’t happen recently then the 2021-2024 market price drop is largely invisible.

Since 2021, many, expected prices to rise again.
But across Melbourne’s Top End, that hasn’t happened—not in any sustained or uniform way.

A different decade

This 2016–2025 decade is nothing like:

2006–2015
1996–2005
Or even 1986–1995

Yes, we had the tearaway rises of 2016–17 and 2020–21.
And yes, we had sharp drops like 1997, 2008, and 2011, reflected now in 2023–24.

But this time—especially at the top end—we’ve had a longer, more sustained decline from Cup Day 2021 to now.

The only comparable period I can remember?

The 1990s.

So what’s really changed?

Has the Queen Mary of pricing turned her ship slowly since 2022?

Is she turning now?

Are we seeing a structural pause or even a different structure?

Or is it that Australia’s immigration policies, China’s relationship, and local dynamics have stopped pushing the top end into the stratosphere?

Or maybe the air is starting to return—slowly.
Not in a bang, but in a long, laboured breath.

What now – get angry, change course?

Whilst we have a number of clients who we have not sold for (yet) and a number of clients who ditto but on the other side (buying); we have also got over the line some exceptional above market prices and some hard to believe well below the price expected buys in this last year.

It’s just for some it took 6 months not 6 weeks and we had periods of off-markets testing, analysing, deciding before the desired on or off-market result.

So let’s end with some real options that might help you land better outcomes.

Options for Buyers & Sellers

Ask better questions.
Don’t just ask: “Why hasn’t it sold?”
Ask: “What actually matters now?”
The right question changes the direction of the deal.
Adjust your timing and demeanour.
If you’re above the market and haven’t sold—sure, you can drop your price.
But you also have the option of patience.
The buyer might not have shown up yet. Stay active, stay hopeful.

On the subject of changing agents – yes if you are not getting responsive communication and actions with real offers or real homes to look at but no, don’t change buyer or seller agents if it’s simply not yet the price you want – for in my experience (and including me), second agent in rarely delivers a better deal, price wise. The best deal came or would have come when you made that critical first buyer or seller agent selection decision.

Perhaps reframe your goals.
Great deals come from clear goals, solid values, and a good range of realistic options.

If your options are grounded in lived experience—not just data—then with time (and yes some luck), better outcomes can follow.

Sometimes, you need someone beside you who gently reminds you:

“Your timing does not have to be now, your map is not the only territory… and just your data is not the deal.”

We buy & sell commercial & residential properties for surgeons, doctors & specialists

and a whole lot of other professions as well!

James Buy Sell works across Melbourne’s top-end property market from Kew to Toorak to Albert Park to Brighton, supporting you with expert advice that helps you make smart decisions in a volatile market.