Early Spring
'Round the Auction Grounds
"Volcanic" Kerferd Road $750,000 over the top end of the agent quote
Today’s Biggest Auction was “Volcanic”: ALBERT PARK 102 Kerferd Road
Fast and furious was the action today at Albert Park with four bidders among a crowd of 150 people battling it out for the keys. Bidding started slowly with Warwick Gardiner of Jellis Craig opening at $5,200,000 with a vendor bid. It took a few minutes for the fire to catch but then three bidders drove the price forward. Called on the market at $5,800,000; the final sale price was $6,250,000. (Catherine)
Melbourne's Top End Markets
Overall
Spring 1st Week 2023
Bidderman
1.4
Stock
Low
Clearance
70%
Attended
37
Volcanoes
3
Ducks
5
This Week
Bidderman
1.5
Stock
Average
Clearance
67%
Attended
33
Volcanoes
7
Ducks
6
Quarterly
2024M1 Open
Bidderman
1.4
Stock
Average
Clearance
63%
2024M2 May
Bidderman
1.5
Stock
Average
Clearance
59%
2024M3 Spring
Bidderman
1.5
Stock
Average
Clearance
67%
Geographical
2024M3 By The Bay
Bidderman
1.6
Stock
Average
Clearance
66%
2024M3 Boroondara
Bidderman
1.4
Stock
Average
Clearance
64%
2024M3 Stonnington
Bidderman
1.7
Stock
Average
Clearance
77%
Mal James
Buy Sell Agent
0408 107 988
mal@james.net.au
Spring 1st Week
Today’s Market is pretty well a carbon copy of this time last year – started with some surprisingly ok numbers in Bidderman (1.5) and Clearances 67% – nothing special but better than what we have had since this time in Spring last year.
It’s also a tale of two markets—either you were hot (with some properties attracting significantly higher interest, volcanoes—due to correct pricing), or you were not (with almost one in five auctions resulting in a duck—no bids at all).
Pass-in City & Stale Rates
As an aside following up the pass-ins of the last auction week we covered in MayM22024: 8 of the 19 still remain unsold – eg the Stale Rate is significant @ 42% – 3 months after the auction. Evidence
At the Top of the Top End there are even more listings that simply have no interest. The market has been weakening not strengthening, and so doing the same ol same ol is not working on the theory of “if not now then later”. The insanity clause is relevant in today’s market – if you are doing the same thing, why expect a different result?
On the subject of last week’s Pass-In City article, we randomly covered 7 Top-End Auctions, all of which passed in, with 3 of the 7 selling later in the day. All 4 that did not sell, remain unsold today a week later, making the one-week stale rate 100%. This would not happen in a solid balanced or lifting market.
Oh, Mal, you are not helping the industry; you are so negative? Please read the story below, it’s not negative, its real and a great ending!
We review the movie, we don’t write the scripts.
Despite a bit of Early Spring Pep – 50% (16/33) of homes auctioned today had seemingly no competition – the old Blockbusters are gone, as people stream to the new Netflix.
The current movie theme is that if you are relying on the market to sell your home, you need to lower your price. So if you want a higher price, you need to sell your home smartly, and that may not involve auctioning with an ambitious ask.
Academy award performances from your agents at listing presentations are no longer getting academy awards on auction day – there needs to be substance.
Although the market is tricky and at the top end still falling sharply, opportunities are still there if you hire the right directors and actors and connect at the box office with the buyer on price (bottom layer of the sandwich) or sell their home in a way that maximises the popcorn and drinks side hustles (top layer of the sandwich).
The biggest brand on a house in 2024 is not your agent, marketing, photographer or fancy furniture……no…… the most prominent brand on the house is the asking price.
Taking things one week at a time, today Boroondara delivered a surprise. Despite two strong auctions, it fell off the podium, with Stonnington and Bayside posting better results in both clearance rates and bidder numbers—although the sample size was small.
It’s all about making your own assessment, so please enjoy our reviews of the 33 auctions we covered below. Next week, we’ll cover another 33, and then we’ll finish the 2024M3 Spring 100 Auction Test the following week.
Think differently - it works!. Be Patient - it works! Off market and multi-agent work!
Sometimes it’s tough being the bearer of difficult news, but other times, it’s uplifting. When we listed the home………
When we listed the home, our clients interviewed several agents before deciding to trust Zali and Shelter by the Bay. Despite their nervousness, we chose not to go with a low quote and hope the auction process would sell the home. We didn’t take that path because you need multiple buyers to push the price beyond the quote to achieve a good result.
Although it was a wonderful home, the location posed a challenge, and we believed relying on multiple buyers—at any quote—was a risk. If the auction failed after three weeks, the property could become stale, like the 42% of homes still unsold three months later, now weighed down by a public perception issue.
Instead, we ran an off-market campaign and invited other agents to bring buyers. In the end, Zali Reynolds (ranked 5th best agent in Victoria, male or female, and the top agent not in a corporate office) sold the home to the only repeat buyer, surpassing price indications given by other agents, at the level our clients wanted and were prepared to wait for.
The buyer was brought in through Zali’s social media campaign. We didn’t advertise on significant listing sites—only on Marketnews. There were quiet moments and tough negotiations off-market, but ultimately, we achieved a successful sale by matching the home, market conditions, and the right sales process to what our client wanted.
The buyers have secured a beautifully renovated home on a north-facing block.
Yes, homes can sell well at auction or via an expression of interest (EOI), if priced to attract.
The key questions are: What’s best for your home in this market, and what are your goals regarding price?
In this case, Zali wrote the movie script that aligned with our clients’ wishes.
2024 M2 May Market
Bidderman
0.9
Stock
Low
Clearance
45%
2024 M1 Opening Market
Bidderman
1.7
Stock
Average
Clearance
77%
Stonnington – Week 1
7 auctions
Clearance: 71%
Bidderman: 1.7
ARMADALE – Method change
MALVERN EAST, 5 Nyora Street
Agent: James Tomlinson – Marshall White
SOI: $2,700,000 – $2,900,000
Crowd: 80
Opening Bid: $2,600,000 VB
On the Market: $2,900,000
Under the Hammer: $3,220,000
Bidderman: 4
AAuctioneer James Tomlinson opened the bidding placing a Vendor Bid of $2,600,000. Three bidders joined the bidding placing $20,000 bids. The property was declared on the market at $2,900,000. The bidding continued with a fourth bidder entering the race. The fourth bidder purchased the property under the hammer for $3,220,000.
TOORAK, 4a Evelina Road
Agent: Fiona Counsel – Marshall White
SOI: $3,550,000 – $3,900,000
Crowd: 50
Opening Bid: $3,500,000 VB
On the Market: $3,900,000
Under the Hammer: $3,960,000
Bidderman: 2
Bidder one wasted no time placing their first bid after the opening Vendor Bid. Following a swift exchange between two bidders, and one quick break from our Auctioneer Justin Long, the property was sold under the hammer to the first bidder.
SOUTH YARRA, 33 Motherwell Street
Agent: Carla Fetter – Jellis Craig
SOI: $3,900,000 – $4,200,000
Crowd: 75
Opening Bid: $3,900,000 VB
On the Market: $4,290,000
Under the Hammer: $4,320,000
Bidderman: 2
Two bidders slowly inched the price higher until it was declared on the market at $4,290,000. They then took the reins and raced to the finish with Bidder one holding on until the end.
SOUTH YARRA, 98 Leopold Street
Agent: Oliver Bruce – Marshall White
SOI: $2,500,000 – $2,750,000
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,400,000 VB
On the Market: $2,800,000
Under the Hammer: $3,005,000
Bidderman: 2
After an initial hesitant start two side by side bidders quickly traded places as the leader. Bidder one held on to take the keys to a round of applause.
PRAHRAN, 98 Chomley Street
Agent: Matt Davis – Kay & Burton
SOI: $2,700,000 – $2,900,000
Crowd: 26
Opening Bid: $2,700,000 VB
Passed in: $2,900,000
Sold after: $undisc
Bidderman: 2
Initially slow to raise their hands, two bidders then rapidly bid to $2,900,000 when auctioneer Gowan Stubbings took a quick second break. Upon his return, Mr Stubbings announced that we were close but not yet on the market. With no further bidding, the property was passed in to the second bidder.
PRAHRAN, 1 and 3 Lorne Road
Agent: Tom McCarthy – Biggin & Scott
SOI: $2,300,000 – $2,530,000
Crowd: 24
Opening Bid: $2,300,000 VB
Passed in: $2,500,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
With no bids received from the quiet crowd, the property passed in to a second vendor bid.
2024 M2 May Market
Bidderman
0.7
Stock
Average
Clearance
46%
2024 M3 Opening Spring
Bidderman
1.6
Stock
Average
Clearance
66%
Bayside – Week 1
8 auctions
Clearance: 67%
Bidderman: 1.58
ALBERT PARK, 102 Kerferd Road
Agent: Warwick Gardiner – Jellis Craig
SOI: $5,000,000 – $5,500,000
Crowd: 150
Opening Bid: $5,200,000 VB
On the Market: $5,800,000
Under the Hammer: $6,250,000
Bidderman: 3
Fast and furious was the action today at Albert Park with four bidders among a crowd of 150 people battling it out for the keys. Bidding started slowly with Warrick Gardiner opening at $5,200,000 with a vendor bid. It took a few minutes for the fire to catch but then four bidders drove the price forward. Called on the market at $5,800,000; the final sale price was $6,250,000.
HAMPTON, 16 Hudson Street
Agent: Jenny Dwyer – Belle
SOI: $2,100,000 – $2,300,000
Crowd: 45
Opening Bid: $2,100,000
On the Market: $2,350,000
Under the Hammer: $2,575,000
Bidderman: 2
Bids opened at $2,100,000 for this award wining sustainable home in Hampton. 2 bidders went back and forth before the property sold for $2,575,000.
BRIGHTON EAST, 71 Baird Street
Agent: Nick Johnstone – Nick Johnstone
SOI: $2,950,000 – $3,245,000
Crowd: 80
Opening Bid: $3,000,000 VB
On the Market: $3,180,000
Under the Hammer: $3,210,000
Bidderman: 2
Mr Johnstone placed a $3,000,000 vendor bid to begin proceedings and soon after a $25,000 bid was placed. A second bidder entered the race and bids went back and forth. The initial bidder placed a final bid of $3,210,000 and the property was sold under the hammer.
BRIGHTON, 51 Brickwood Street
Agent: David Hart – Buxton
SOI: $4,250,000 – $4,600,000
Crowd: 80
Opening Bid: $4,150,000
On the Market: $4,400,000
Under the Hammer: $4,460,000
Bidderman: 3
Three bidders battle it out at Brickwood Street this afternoon once David Hart encourages the three starters with an opening vendor bid of $4,150,000. There’s a quick diversion inside and on the market at $4,400,000 and under the hammer the home is sold at $4,460,000.
HAMPTON, 71 Service Street
Agent: Jenny Dwyer – Belle
SOI: $2,000,000 – $2,200,000
Crowd: 50
Opening Bid: $1,950,000 VB
On the Market: $2,100,000
Under the Hammer: $2,110,000
Bidderman: 2
Auctioneer Andrew Solomon encouraged opening bids but with a slow start he placed a $1,950,000 vendor bid. Shortly after 2 parties entered the bidding and at $2,100,000 the property was on the markets. A final bid of $2,110,000 was placed and the property was sold under the Hammer.
SANDRINGHAM, 21 McLauchlin Street
Agent: Charlie Darlow – Buxton
SOI: $2,200,000 – $2,300,000
Crowd: 41
Opening Bid: $2,100,000
On the Market: $2,500,000
Under the Hammer: $2,590,000
Bidderman: 2
There was fast paced bidding from 2 interested parties. It was sold under the hammer for $2.590 after being declared on the market at $2.5m.
ST KILDA WEST, 42 York Street
Agent: Oliver Bruce – Marshall White
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,200,000
Crowd: 80
Opening Bid: $3,000,000
Passed in: $3,200,000
After auction: $undisc
Bidderman: 3
Oliver Bruce is pleased to receive an immediate opening bid of $3,000,000 for the home at 42 York Street, St Kilda West. A second bidder comes out to play but the home is passed in at $3,200,000 for further negotiation.
HAMPTON, 1 Favril Street
Agent: Nick Johnstone – Nick Johnstone
SOI: $2,600,000 – $2,800,000
Crowd :42
Opening Bid: $2,700,000 VB
Passed in: $2,705,000
After auction: $undisc
Bidderman: 1
A beautiful day failed to entice the bidders to raise their hands and the property was passed in with only one bid of $2,705,000 below the required reserve price. Sold after.
ST KILDA, 7 Burnett Street
Agent: $2,500,000 – $2,700,000
SOI: $2,500,000 – $2,700,000
Crowd: John Manning – Belle
Opening Bid: $2,500,000 VB
Passed in: $2,500,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
Just a small group gathered around the home for auction which opens for bidding with a vendor bid of $2,500,000 and closes at the same figure without any participation from the audience.
BEAUMARIS, 433b Beach Road
Agent: Bert Geraerts – Nick Johnstone
SOI: $4,700,000 – $4,950,000
Crowd: 20
Opening Bid: $4,500,000 VB
Passed in: $4,500,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
The property passed in on a vendor bid of $4.5m.
MIDDLE PARK, 92a Wright Street
Agent: Max Mercuri – Jellis Craig
SOI: $2,250,000 – $2,350,000
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,300,000 VB
Passed in: $2,300,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
The auction opened and closed with the vendor bid of $2,300,000.
BRIGHTON, 34 Durrant Street
Agent: Alex Schiavo – Kay & Burton
SOI: $2,950,000 – $3,245,000
Crowd: 26
Opening Bid: $3,095,000 VB
Passed in: $3,150,000
Bidderman: 1
The property at 34 Durrant street had a crowd of 26 attend the auction. Auctioneer Matthew Pillios placed a vendor bid and soon after one bidderman placed a bid of $3,150,000 the property was shortly after passed in.
2024 M2 May Market
Bidderman
2
Stock
Average
Clearance
60%
2024 M3 Spring Opening
Bidderman
1.4
Stock
Average
Clearance
64%
Boroondara – Week 1
14 auctions
Clearance: 64%
Bidderman: 1.42
HAWTHORN EAST, 37 Cole Street
Agent: Perry Zhou – Jellis Craig
SOI: $3,850,000 – $4,100,000
Before auction: $undisc
HAWTHORN, 8 St Columbs Street
Agent: Richard Winneke – Jellis Craig
SOI: $2,400,000 – $2,600,000
Crowd: 64
Opening Bid: $2,400,000 VB
On the Market: $2,625,000
Under the Hammer: $2,800,000
Bidderman: 3
Some action here with two bidders battling along until a whisker over $2,700,000. A third bidder offered $1,000 which was rounded to $2,710,000 by Bidder 1. Bidder 3 then offered a big upbid to $2,800,000 and the property was quickly knocked down.
CANTERBURY, 28 Irilbarra Road
Agent: Mark Josem – Jellis Craig
SOI: $4,000,000 – $4,400,000
Crowd: 75
Opening Bid: $4,000,000
On the Market: $4,500,000
Under the Hammer: $5,368,000
Bidderman: 5
The bidding was swift to commence with an opening bid of $4,000,000. The property reached the reserve price of $4,500,000 in a matter of moments with five bidders contending for the property placing bids of up to $100,000. The property sold under the hammer for $5,368,000.
SURREY HILLS, 14 Banool Road
Agent: David Smith – Marshall White
SOI: $2,400,000 – $2,600,000
Crowd: 50
Opening Bid: $2,400,000
On the Market: $2,660,000
Under the Hammer: $2,740,000
Bidderman: 3
An opening bid was placed at $2,400,000. The property was declared on the market at $2,660,000, as three bidders competed to become the new owners. The property was sold under the hammer to the first bidder for $2,740,000.
HAWTHORN, 19 Launder Street
Agent: Tim Mursell – Marshall White
SOI: $2,300,000 – $2,500,000
Crowd: 70
Opening Bid: $2,300,000 VB
On the Market: $2,605,000
Under the Hammer: $2,740,000
Bidderman: 2
A last-minute second bidder kept this one going. After much back-and-forth, the original bidder emerged victorious.
GLEN IRIS, 90 Great Valley Road
Agent: Tim Heavyside – Heavyside
SOI: $2,200,000 – $2,400,000
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $2,200,000
On the Market: $2,660,000
Under the Hammer: $2,730,000
Bidderman: 4
The pace was set by a genuine opening bid and the subsequent contest between three parties. at $2,660,000 the property was declared “well and truly on the market”. This enticed a fourth bidder, but Bidder 2 resolutely hung on to take the keys.
HAWTHORN EAST, 38 Hastings Road
Agent: Richard Winneke – Jellis Craig
SOI: $3,400,000 – $3,700,000
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $3,500,000 VB
Passed in: $3,600,000
Sold after: $3,838,000
Bidderman: 1
A regulation vendor bid opened the auction. A bidder offered to match it but was rejected and a further vendor bid at $3,550,000 was added on top. The bidder offered up $3,600,000 and secured pass in and negotiate rights.
GLEN IRIS, 42 Great Valley Road
Agent: Doug McLauchlan – Marshall White
SOI: $3,100,000 – $3,400,000
Crowd: 80
Opening Bid: $2,800,000
Passed in: $3,101,000
After auction: $undisc
Bidderman: 1
The bidding opened with a bid of $2,800,000. Mr McLauchlan placed a vendor bid of $3,100,000 before passing the property in to the sole bidder for $3,101,000. Sold after.
HAWTHORN EAST, 2 Victoria Grove
Agent: Mark Sproule – Kay & Burton
SOI: $2,450,000 – $2,650,000
Crowd: 50
SOI: $2,450,000 – $2,650,000
Opening Bid: $2,450,000 VB
Passed in: $2,475,000 VB
After auction: $undisc (under offer)
Bidderman: 0
Back-to-back vendor bids with no action from the crowd. Successful negotiation after auction, currently under offer.
HAWTHORN EAST, 1 Clive Road
Agent: Sam Christensen – Anton Zhouk
SOI: $4,500,000 – $4,950,000
Crowd: 65
Opening Bid: $4,500,000 VB
Passed in: $4,650,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
A quiet Saturday morning auction with a vendor bid to open and another to close proceedings.
HAWTHORN, 24 The Boulevard
Agent: Antony Woodley – Jellis Craig
SOI: $4,100,000 – $4,500,000
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $4,200,000 VB
Passed in: $4,200,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
After the opening vendor bid, the crowd remained silent and the property was passed in.
GLEN IRIS, 35 Pascoe Street
Agent: Manae McInnes – Shelter Real Estate
SOI: $2,700,000 – $2,900,000
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $2,800,000 VB
Passed in: $2,800,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
No bidding from those in attendance with a vendor bid opening and closing the auction.
KEW, 1223 Burke Road
SOI: $3,950,000 – $4,300,000
Passed-in
KEW, 31 Barry Street
Agent: Nick O’Halloran – Jellis Craig
SOI: $4,500,000 – $4,900,000
Crowd: 70
Opening Bid: $4,400,000 VB
Passed in: $4,500,000 VB
Bidderman: 0
A picturesque scene with people gathered around the landscaped garden. No bidding from those in attendance with a vendor bid opening and closing the auction.
NEW TO JAMES BUY SELL? WELCOME – THE JARGON OF 4 SEASONS and 100 AUCTION TESTS: 100 Auction Test is where we randomly select Top End homes before they go to auction and then we turn up and report on all results, so as you can get a true picture of the current Inner Melbourne Top End Market. We do it 4 times a year in the major markets.
Opening Market M1 usually sets a direction till Easter (sometimes the whole year)
May Market M2 post Easter leading into Winter trends – capricious market usually.
Spring Market M3 is Footy Finals and Pre-Cup – a major buy sell season. Can see a market turnaround either way, coming out of winter.
Christmas Market M4 is from November till Santa comes. Often the hardest market to sell in, due to oversupply relative to unsatisfied demand.
Demand – Bidderman. How many bidders per auction? A very accurate measurement of market depth when taken over a wide sample. Number of Bidders / Number of Auctions.
1 bidder average – Falling Market. 2 bidders – Rising Market. 3 bidder average – On Fire
Supply – Stock Levels. It’s a nuanced opinion measurement, more so than scientific, as there can be a flood of unrenovated homes, but the market wants ready to move in.
Clearance Price % – Many data points give exaggerated readings as agents choose to leave out the bad news (unsolds). We choose the sample before auction and track down every result. The higher the clearance rate, the more agreement between buyer and seller on price and if Bidderman is also strong this shows prices are rising.
Measurements: Under 60% falling. 60-70% some stability but easing if below 65% consistently. 70%-80% rising. 80%+ On fire.
GLOSSARY
PPP’s – All homes and all buyers have 3 characteristics. A good deal for a buyer is when their PPP’s match the homes PPP’s.
Position (land location) + Property (building) + Price = 3P’s. A buyer can adjust all three to get what they really, really want and to meet the market.
Whilst a home has 3 P’s, a seller has only 1 P they can adjust – Price. Although a good seller and agent can, prior to the sale, affect the P of Property through Presentation.
Overall there are 3P’s and Position is most often, the most important.
A-Graders – If the home’s PPP’s are desirable to many in the market we call that an A-Grader. However, it’s all the 3P’s that need to be desirable. You can have a great location, great building and be overpriced in which case you have only 2 desirable P’s – we call that a B-Grader. C-Graders have 1 or no desirable PPP’s and the only usual desirable P is Price – a weak one – this is why C-Graders are poor investments.
Volcanoes – When the market is hot you see increasing numbers of 4 or more bidders on homes. We call that a volcano. 1 or no bidders we call a duck.
Wounded Underbidders – Buyers who miss, go harder (more money) next time to avoid the hurt of missing out again. When there are multiple unhappy buyers, who have missed multiple times (wounded underbidders), the market rises quickly.
Cautious Buyers – Non-Bidders – Potential buyers who see lots of pass-ins, tend to not want to bid because their fear of overpaying is greater than their desire to buy and get out of the market.
Stales – Number and length of time a property remains unsold. The older the stale, the weaker the price (as a general rule). The more stales, the weaker the market as they clog up the market creating an oversupply.
Off-market – Homes that are for sale but are not advertised in the mainstream media like realestate.com.au. Over say $5 million there are considerably more homes off market than on market. More than ½ the homes we buy and sell are off-market.
Pre-market – Homes that some agents say are Off-market. Pre-market homes are homes coming to market but are not yet advertised and are often not really for sale at the moment.
On-market – usually refers to homes sold with major advertising say on Domain or realestate.com.au
Not for sale (and the 4 ducks) – there are many homes that are also said to be Off-market or Pre-market homes that are not really for sale. Why? Seller is testing the market. Agent is testing the market. Agent has no work. Seller wants a free valuation or some company.
For a home to be really for sale off-market, it needs to pass the 4 Duck Test.
- Agent Authority 2. Contract of Sale 3. Asking Price 4. Easy Access.
Good ól Boring Process – When you are cooking a cake – do you get your best results by making up the ingredients, the amounts and throwing them into together, hoping for the best? If you do great, but I’m not hungry. A good recipe is a good process. And in property a good recipe is 3 Questions starting with what do I really really want? If you can’t work that out, then engage a good agent. When you answer that question, you go to the 2nd and 3rd questions and make good decisions. Good decisions lead to good outcomes – for you.
Market Prices – Every price is supposedly a market price. It’s a lazy concept.
Market price is a living organism – lets imagine it’s like a human. The market is the blood, the circulatory system. The PPP’s are the bones, the skin, the main organs and we agents and agent marketing are the lipstick, perfume, clothes. All 3 – blood, bones and lipstick make up a price and its attractiveness, it’s not just the market.
Market Values – Values are opinions. All opinions have vested interests and biases. What the council, the bank, the agent, the buyer, the seller values a home at will all be different.
Last year two valuers came to a home I was looking to refinance – $4m home – 3 weeks apart the valuations were approx. $700,000 different – that’s qualified valuers – same criteria.
Market Value v Market Price – One is an opinion before the deal and one is the actual result after the deal.
Quote Range: It is thought to be an agent estimate of final price – it is not. See Quoting
Under the Hammer: is when a home is sold to a buyer under the auctioneer’s hammer that is on the street or in the home in front of crowd when we says sold – it can be just clapping his hands together – under the hammer refers to the old gavel now only sometimes used.
On the market: (different from on-market) is a colloquial term that an agent or auctioneer uses to state we are now at a level that it will be sold (now) even if there is no more bidding.
What affects markets?
Demand and Supply – yes sir re – that is what really affects markets.
Some Key Supply Variants
- Government restrictions
- Lag Times in supply of demand changes
- Builders and materials
Some Key Demand Variants
- Money – Bank credit and community wealth
- Overseas Buyers, Interstate Buyers, Migration
- Stock Markets and World Events
Predicting the Future
Economists, banking leaders and other market predictors are like horse race “experts” – entertaining but of little long-term value. In 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 the pundits on where the market was going got it wrong, dead wrong 4 from 4. A coin toss should have got at least 2 from 4. The only pundit we listen to with respect, is the one that says they don’t really know.
Rising / Falling / Easing – Humans are herd animals.
When there are a number of pass-ins the market eases. When combined with increasing stock coming on and more stales, the market falls more sharply.
Increasing numbers of wounded underbidders and less stock the market edges up – when wounded underbidders combine with loose bank lending and tight stock and increasing migration, then market prices begin to run away.
A home can easily be 5% more or less in a week (1 bidder drops away) and parts of the market can change by 5% in a month. A property can change by 10% during the length of an auction campaign. It is very similar to the ASX in terms of its variability – it’s just not as transparent.
Individual property prices are very fluid, they are far from fixed as many think and claim.
Market Conundrum – often the best time to buy or sell is when everybody else doesn’t want to – eg counter to the markets.
Buy or sell timing maxims we live by? Assuming it’s an A-grader. If you really, really like it, buy now. If you really, really like it never sell.
Which brings us back to Doe. Doe is dear, a female deer. This is why 10,000 people read Marketnews.com.au. It’s the only property thing that makes no sense (smiley face).
