Volatility Continues

Saturday, May 6th, 2023

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Small sample but confirms our claims of volatility. In a quieter week for May we had two auctions today.

 

Both family homes. Both circa $3m. Both two bidders. Both in Boroondara.

 

Victoria Road with Mark Josem and Mike Beardsley we missed at $500,000 over the top of the range and Prosper Road with Andrew Mackintosh we bought within the range.

 

THAT’S VOLATILITY

Next Weekend 2023 M2 - The May Market begins

TREND

 

The Reserve Bank surprise this week has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons. Yes/No?

 

2023M1 (February Opening) was our first up-market since 2021M3 (Spring) and to be transparent February’s positivity was mainly restricted to the Inner East, and mainly due to the momentum building amongst Asian Aussies, reentering the housing-near-schools’-market.

 

It was a welcome respite from the downward trend of the previous 5 markets.

 

TIGHT

 

Apart from 2015/16 the last decade has been a tight stock market, so tight is normal.

 

However right now, agents and buyers feel it is below the usual “tight stock” line, and so with supply restricted and demand seemingly on the up as evidenced by 2023M1, it was looking like the May market would be a shoo-in for being a red and positive one, albeit individual results volatile.

 

VOLATILE

 

Enter Tuesday’s rate announcement and suddenly this May market is now an even more volatile one.

 

May is going to be compelling watching, like a Magpies last quarter, and will likely set the tone for Early Spring and pre-Xmas markets in 2023.

 

The 2023M2 May market sentiment has gone from a bit of a dawdle to pivotal for the immediate residential property markets future.

All @ Xmas 2022

Bidderman

1.2

Stock

LOW

Clearance

63%

Stonnington 2023

Bidderman

1.1

Stock

LOW

Clearance

52%

Bayside 2023

Bidderman

1.2

Stock

LOW

Clearance

56%

Boroondara 2023

Bidderman

2

Stock

LOW

Clearance

81%

In the short bursts that I run into Kate, nobody is a more bubbly and fun-to-be-with agent. 

 

This week’s podcast is how to spread Kate’s news that infectious enthusiasm and positivity are good ways to help each other get through the tougher times and then go on and kick some goals when the good times return. 

 

Please enjoy the full on Kate Strickland and her suggestions for being and getting a mentor.

Volatility

The Link

Welcome to the second effort of the link = where we link two seemingly very different headlines that we feel relate to the same issue. Last week it was money up and immigration up and the link we felt, was to look at the longer-term, bigger picture. 

 

This week – and wow a week is a long time in property – this week, we think these two headlines link to confirm market volatility. 

 

On the left, buyers are worried, that their actions will be less predictable, and on the right sellers are worried because they see volatile results and are looking for other alternatives, making their market actions also less predictable.

Volatility doesn’t just happen on the way down – it also happens on the way up!

 

When a market is changing, by logic it is volatile, as it’s moving from one phase to another.

 

Are we moving gears back to our 2016, 2021 powerhouse markets – not sure – one thing I am sure of though, we are moving direction.

 

Things will begin to happen that are “unexpected” – pass-ins on good homes, huge prices on others….. with some buyers and some sellers missing out completely….. that’s what volatile means – a significant increase in the unexpected.

 

In 2023M1, the opening market, we did see dramatic change, albeit on low stock and mainly in one council only – Boroondara.

 

But that council is one that matters and from here recent history has shown that Melbourne will follow it’s lead – Boroondara is not the canary in the goldmine – Boroondara is the goldmine, and the canaries are Aussie-Asian bidding and they’re flapping their feathers.

 

Momentum has swung around from 5 down markets in a row to a flat market by the Bay and a rising market in the East. The market in M1 was a lot stronger.

 

Stock Post Easter – stock feels incredibly low for this time of the year and that will definitely add to the volatility, as some home types will have wounded underbidders and other home types no interest at all – new players will find that hard to fathom.

 

Off-markets will flounder – unless their 4 Duck off-market Test waddles, looks and quacks like a duck. Authority to sell, clear price, contracts and access – are your Ducks lined up and must be present or else you are losing buyers as a seller and wasting your time as a buyer –  and that is before either of you start to try and negotiate price. We discuss in detail I next weeks off-market podcast.

 

Buyers – are back in numbers (for the right PPP’s) – they were MINA (missing in no action) in 2022M3 and 2022M4 – but in 2023M1 they returned – the market god flicked the switch – welcome back or simply for many just welcome.

 

Family homes are not the same as investments (even though good ones are investments) – they are not driven by the money and stock markets all the time – granted in late 2022 they were. But in 2023 the $2m to $6m market where there are two transactions, a buy and a sell and a money juggle feels like it will be both challenging and profitable for those that get it right and the opposite for those that don’t.

Play Video

Mal and Gina, so we know you as buyer agents – what’s the “off-market selling” you do?

 

In a buy sell, on the sell, we manage the whole process. Our focus is price, strategy, presentation, agent selection, execution, and extras, all of which are largely ignored in many off-markets, big mistake.

 

Price: The most abused tool in your toolkit. Get it right and it’s off to the races, get it wrong and you’re mucking out the stables. Why is so little testing done on price prior to going to market? Why is your decision made on who tells you the highest number or who sounds the most credible, when neither of those is consistently the best strategy to get the best price.

 

Strategy: When the average bidders at auctions in this market is 1, why is the only strategy suggested by the agent quote ‘em low and watch ’em fly at auction. Don’t worry about the sales pitch of somebody else’s miracle auction, give me the logic on why 1 bidder auctions, quoted low, are a plus for you. They are not, they are efficient for the agent and good for the buyer.

 

Presentation: Why is there an unwritten law that if you are selling your home off-market: it’s ok to look less than its best? Some of our strongest arguments with our off market selling clients are about spending money on presentation. You need to do it, even if the agent says oh, she’ll be right. That’s total BS. Why would we go out on a limb if we didn’t know it makes a difference – why does an agent not push as hard as we do: turnover and lack of time.

 

Agent selection: You really wonder about some sellers when they say I am going with such and such, as I know her, or he is a mate, or he has been ringing me a lot for a long time (why isn’t he or she ringing buyers for existing selling clients). WTF. Would that cut it at work?

 

Does Ross Lyon or Brad Scott make their selections on mates or who is best for the job? The coaches they replaced have been hailed as hardly done by nice guys – but Ross and Brad are very different – a clear plan, good support and they don’t select their mate or who rings them up all the time – they select who is best for the job, after they have been through a series of tests.

 

Why narrow the field in your first act. Wouldn’t it make more sense to have more agents, bringing more buyers and wouldn’t it make sense to keep more agents on your side?

 

How do you feel when you are rejected? Pissed off and angry at who rejected you? Probably – so what do you think agents who didn’t get your job are saying to a buyer when asked about your home? Let them have a chance to sell it if they have the best buyer.

 

It doesn’t feel like rocket science, there is so much history and self interest in how some currently sell.

 

Competing: What do you want agents to compete on – promises or results. Huh? Why make your final selection on glossy brochures and a slick sales presentation – it’s a pointer for sure – but when all are slick and glossy (all look so similar) doesn’t it just become a case of mine is bigger than his, choose me.

 

What about bring me the offers – from multiple agents? Why not test credentials in an off-market competition? Agents tell you it’s all about competition to get you the best, well get them to compete. We compete all the time.

 

But be careful – if you can’t manage the public narrative, then multiple agents instead of a better deal, become a fight to the bottom.

 

Execution: For all the not so nice things you can say about agents – there is one huge plus – their ability to focus on cutting a deal. It’s brilliant. But what happens if that deal is not in your best interests right this second? There seems to be no pause and reflect button on our agent friends at times. We encourage pause and reflect and then accept or keep going.

 

Extras: How can your agent take the time to give you something extra when they have 6 to 10 campaigns running this week – sorry I can’t see you at this time or this time or this time, but I can see you at 10.57 in my office for 3 minutes – and you’re the client. The buyers must be getting less.  Catch 22 – if they are not full on, then do you want them?

 

Solution: Let them do what they do best – call and call and call and combine them with someone who can bring strategies to the table like a mexican wave, another buyer, another agent and advice to hold until we get a competing buyer and more.

 

Real Life: This week the off-market above was a multi-agent home where we ran a mexican wave in Marketnews over the Easter weeks and sold in the low $4m’s having been bought in the high $2m’s during Covid – nothing done to it. It’s a great home.

 

Multi-agent Off-market began Feb 4 with a welcome meeting:

  1. Selling client was a reader of marketnews – unhappy with agent advice she had received.
  2. She rang us. We made a presentation to be open and look at all angles.
  3. We were given an authority, organised a contract, produced an SOI and gave access. The 4 off-market ducks.
  4. Gina replaced the styling with a new style.
  5. We selected to go off-market with a multi-agent strategy.
  6. We replaced the photography.
  7. We ran a mexican wave in Marketnews
  8. Solid interest in Week 1 from 1 buyer, via an agent.
  9. We at marketnews produced buyer 2 with solid interest in Week 3
  10. Selling client and agent and James Buy Sell meeting: strategy to make it happen as we now had 2 solid and understood buyers.
  11. An auction (we do love them when the ingredients are there) was organised over the phone and strong competition from mid $3m’s and on the market to over $4m. Agent did a great job. The buyer bought well.
  12. The buyer came from a marketnews mexican wave and looked at a beautifully presented off-market home and competed against another buyer from another agent – the brilliance of multi-agent.
  13. The total cost to our client was less than $10,000 for furniture, touch-ups, photos, contracts etc. and total agent fee was no more @ 2.2% split 50/50 with winning agent.
  14. Job done: Buyer bought a rare home well and the seller got what she wanted.
  15. Money: James Buy Sell Multi-Agent increase was $1.25 million or 45%.
    Melbourne Median increase during the same time was 7.1% (reiv)
    Aspendale Median increase during the same time was 9.5% (reiv)
    Increase taking local agent opinion of value and not the result was: 21% (SOI)
    The price in this volatile market was a record for area property type.
    This graph above shows this and is to scale.

April 25 2023

 

“If you’re thinking of selling don’t look past Gina and Mal for exceptional results. It’s their business to know how to stage a house and garden, know the best time of the year to sell in different areas, and they will know the key selling points of your house (and they can arrange for all of this to happen for you).  They know how to negotiate and more importantly, how to time negotiations.  They know the real estate agents and know who will be the right one for you.  You’re in really safe hands and most importantly they’re honest – they will advise to not sell if the offer isn’t right.  They’re truly ‘on your side’ and advise you on how to get the best outcome for you.  My advice: at the very least meet with them – you won’t be disappointed.”  

 

Our Buy Sell Client on this Aspendale home

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