Mal James
Buy Sell Agent
0408 107 988
mal@james.net.au
Volcano @ $18m Grace Park ShootOut
At the Top End, we observed the overall market trending slightly upwards in terms of prices following the conclusion of our third and final week of the 100 Auction Test (2024M1 – Opening).
Typically, the market in February starts off with some momentum post-Christmas break. This year, the results were mixed, with performance varying significantly across different homes, areas, and weeks, indicating that the market is better recognizing A-graders with more volcanoes, while continuing to penalize pricing errors with 1 in 4 or 25% of auctions being ducks.
A positive note is that, although the Bidderman rate remained steady at 1.4 bidders per auction, the clearance rate increased by 5 percentage points. This improvement occurred despite a significant increase in market inventory, suggesting deeper demand than what was observed in December 2023 (2023M4). The more we delved into this opening market, the better the results generally were – the first week was a shock – in terms of statistics and in our expectations of what those statistics would be.
Below, we provide the 2024M1 Opening Market’s numbers, with the segment splits, so you can make more informed buying and selling decisions going forward. Additionally, we recap this week’s activities, including an account of an intense bidding war at Mary Street, Grace Park, on Monday, where the bids soared past $14 million, $16 million, and $18 million on the fly.
We have been involved in four deals over $16 million in recent times, and not one has been in Toorak.
This isn’t to say Toorak has lost its allure; rather, areas like Hawthorn, Kew, and parts of the Bay are catching up and more regularly seeing sales in the vicinity of $20 million.
Melbourne’s real estate landscape is evolving, with Toorak no longer monopolizing the highest price tags. Emerging precincts like Hawthorn and Kew, and the re-emerging Brighton, are asserting some prominence. Brighton is still 40% cheaper due to limited migration, but it offers the same facilities, schools, plus the beach and minus the traffic. There is so much upside for the same home on the same land size in Brighton compared to Toorak (see 6 Menzies $18 million vs. $11 million below).
But this Is All About Mary: 37 Mary. It may be our highest-rated home ever, and while my favorite remains 9 Towers in Toorak, this home is on the podium. It was flawless in terms of Price, Positional, and Property Provenance, attracting bidders from far and wide to a “gunfight at the OK Corral” orchestrated by Sheriff Scott Patterson, with the able assistance of Deputy Sam Wilkinson.
Although we, as one of the combatants, got the price right and the tactics were sound, we were beaten by Quick Draw McGraw, a local competitor who annoyingly had deeper pockets and maintained composure under immense time pressure.
But it wasn’t really about those deepest pockets; it was about the smarts of the seller’s selection, the agent, and the home quality.
Writing this is, in part, therapy as I hate losing, enjoy.
Let’s take a step back regarding Mary. The wagons were circling a week before last Monday, despite the advertised reckoning (EOI close) still being some weeks off. Sheriff Patterson had adeptly been distracting and delaying any attempt to start a battle, allowing all players to build their armor and armory to fight harder and longer.
When there is the making and noise of a real contest, Scott is a master at building trust by giving time and calming words to many, which, in turn, allows the warriors, such as on Mary, to raise their value bars by removing the enemy of price greatness—doubt.
Scott is living proof of why skill, decency, and calmness in your agent can make such a difference to your result when selling a volcano.
Many who are thinking about selling are out there listening to and comparing false promises from price liars or hiring the cheapest commission agent or going with who they think is their friend (just because they ring them regularly) and they are leaving a lot of money on the table because they just don’t get it.
Buyers want respect, buyers are not stupid, and buyers know the agent you are thinking of hiring is full of BS (remember what you thought when you were a buyer). Selling a home well needs strategy, good process to match the number of buyers, and some street smarts. Many a sale is lost before it has even begun. Ethics, demeanor under pressure, experience all matter, often more so than numbers!
Now, Scott is not your best bet on every home (sometimes I love it when I see he is on the job and it’s not a volcano, as it’s not one size fits all), but here on Mary, he was my “enemy,” my client’s “enemy,” the perfect choice (for the seller).
Why? Trying to convince my clients to go a week earlier was unsuccessful, in part as our relationship was new and lacked the full trust that history can cement, in part on the fear of overpaying above the agent’s quote, and in part on the back of the calming “take your time” words of Scott to them, which turned out to be spot-on for his client (the seller) and unhelpful for them (my clients).
Why unhelpful? While the enemy of price greatness is buyer doubt, the friend to the brave bidder can be boldness and surprise, and on Mary, in the end, there was none.
But I digress, back to the actual battle on Mary.
At noon last Monday, one flighty gunslinger could wait no longer and delivered the first salvo at $14.75 million. Another would-be combatant returned fire in a heartbeat—$16.25 million—smashing to smithereens the agent’s quote of $14 million to $15 million. Two more joined in the fray, at such pace and with such fury, the home was on the market, records were ablaze, and mobiles scorched until shortly before the dinner bell, when the losers began to leave to heal their wounds.
The fight was over at $18.2 million, well past the previous Grace Park record.
However, this was a crown jewel; the record was not a fluke or an outlier in sanity.
It was a great buy—well done to the winner.
As our above pre-sale rating pricing suggests, the final value of $18.2 million wasn’t entirely unexpected given the fierce competition that ensued. Nonetheless, surpassing the quote and independent professional valuation by $4 million underscores the enduring appeal of great provenance (which 37 Mary exemplified) and defies the notion of a directionless Top End when it comes to A-Graders—this cohort is still rising when sold well.
'Round the Auction Grounds This Week
2024 M1 Week 1
Bidderman
1.2
Stock
Average
Clearance
59%
Auctions Attended
34
Volcanoes
3%
Ducks
25%
2024 M1 Week 2
Bidderman
1.6
Stock
Average
Clearance
59%
Auctions Attended
37
Volcanoes
16%
Ducks
27%
2024 M1 Week 3
Bidderman
1.5
Stock
Average
Clearance
72%
Auctions Attended
29
Volcanoes
14%
Ducks
21%
Difference in TOP END Quarterly Markets
Bidderman has improved, despite the stats saying otherwise as stock has increased, but bidder numbers have remained constant.
2023M3 Spring
Bidderman
1.4
Stock
LOW
Clearance
65%
2023M4 Xmas
Bidderman
1.4
Stock
LOW
Clearance
58%
2024M1 Open
Bidderman
1.4
Stock
GOOD
Clearance
63%
Difference in TOP END Geographical Markets
Inner East has returned to be the strongest market
STONNINGTON
WEEK 3 – 6 auctions
Clearance rate: 100%
Bidderman: 2.66
Stonnington overall – 28 auctions
Clearance rate: 64%
Bidderman: 1.28
PRAHRAN, 7 Irene Place
SOI: $2,300,000 – $2,500,000
Sales Agent: Carla Fetter – Jellis Craig
Before auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
MALVERN, 9 Ewart Street
SOI: $3,100,000 – $3,400,000
Sales Agent: Will Bennison – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $3,200,000
On market: $3,400,000
Under hammer: $3,475,000
Bidders: 4
Two bidders quickly entered the race. After a brief break the bid was at $3,305,000. Auctioneer Lachie Fraser-Smith returned with a $50,000 vendor bid. Two more bidders entered and the property was shortly after sold at $3,440,000.
MALVERN, 4 Hornsby Street
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,200,000
Sales Agent: Will Bennison – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $3,100,000
On market: $3,220,000
Under hammer: $3,460,000
Bidders: 3
3 keen bidders jumped in from the start. An initial bid of $3,200,000 was placed and made its way to $3,220,000 before auctioneer Ian Carmichael took a short break. Then bidding then quickly continued with two bidders going back and forth in $5,000 and $10,000 increase with the property finally selling under the hammer at $3,460,000.
GLEN IRIS (Stonnington), 159 Finch Street
SOI: $3,800,000 – $4,000,000
Sales Agent: Robert Ding – Belle Property
Crowd: 67
Opening Bid: $3,800,000 VB
On market: $4,140,000
Under hammer: $4,480,000
Bidders: 4
The multi lingual talents of Robert Ding were on full display as three bidders slowly traded bids. At $4,140,000 the property was on the market and the bidding heated up accordingly. Bidder 4 swept in at the end to take the keys to the property to a round of applause.
SOUTH YARRA, 62 Tivoli Road
SOI: $4,400,000 – $4,800,000
Sales Agent: Walter Dodich – Kay & Burton
Crowd: 28
Opening Bid: $4,400,000 VB
On market: $4,860,000
Under hammer: $5,006,000
Bidders: 2
After opening on a vendor bid, two bidders slowly traded bids until the property was declared on the market. At this point the pace quickened and, after a final flurry, bidder 1 was victorious.
ARMADALE, 30 Barkly Avenue
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Oliver Booth – Kay & Burton
Crowd: 50
Opening Bid: $3,150,000 VB
On market: $3,360,000
Under hammer: $3,380,000
Bidders: 2
With a vendor bid of $3,150,00 to kick off proceedings, two keen bidders went head to head. After a short break the property was announced ‘on the market’ at $3,360,000 two more bids were made and quickly after the home was announced sold under the hammer for $3,380,000.
BY THE BAY - BAYSIDE & PORT PHILLIP
The Bayside market has definitely lifted since December
WEEK 3 – Bayside/Port Phillip – 11 auctions
Clearance: 64%
Bidderman: 0.9
Bayside/Port Phillip overall – 36 auctions
Clearance: 64%
Bidderman: 1.16
BRIGHTON EAST, 30 Baird Street
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Kate Strickland – Marshall White
Before auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
SANDRINGHAM, 23 Edward Street
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Scott Hamilton – Buxton
Before auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
ALBERT PARK, 82 Kerferd Road
SOI: $2,900,000 – $3,100,000
Sales Agent: Warwick Gardiner – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 54
Opening Bid: $2,900,000 VB
On market: $3,300,000
Under hammer: $3,750,000
Bidders: 2
An opening vendor bid of $2.9 million started things off before 2 interested parties battled it out. The Kerferd road property was sold for $3.75 million
HAMPTON, 28 Imbros Street
SOI: $2,400,000 – $2,550,000
Sales Agent: Leanne Potter – Buxton
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $2,400,000 VB
Passed in: $2,450,000
After auction: $2,491,000
Bidders: 1
David Hart from Buxton opens proceedings with a vendor bid of $2,400,000. One bidder advances, but the home is passed in at $2,450,000 for further negotiations and the crowd of about 60 people wander away in the sunshine.
ALBERT PARK, 93 Richardson Street
SOI: $5,200,000 – $5,700,000
Sales Agent: Nicholas Hoo – Marshall White
Crowd: 65
Opening Bid: $5,200,000 VB
Passed in: $5,650,000
After auction: $undisc
Bidders: 3
The renovated Victorian home drew a large crowd and with a vendor bid to open the auction things were off and running. 3 interested parties raised their hand but the reserve could not be reached. The property was formally passed in for further negotiations. Sold after.
BRIGHTON, 85 Well Street
SOI: $2,400,000 – $2,600,000
Sales Agent: Stephen Smith – Marshall White
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,400,000 VB
Passed in: $2,450,000
After auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
Auctioneer Stephen Smith was in a commanding position on the front steps above a quiet crowd. The property was passed into the sole bidder and negotiations moved inside. Sold after.
ELWOOD, 38 Addison Street
SOI: $3,200,000 – $3,400,000
Sales Agent: Ben Manolitsas – Marshall White
Crowd: 55
Opening Bid: $3,200,000 VB
Passed in: $3,250,000
After auction: $3,505,000
Bidders: 1
Auctioneer Kaine Lanyon passed the property in to the lone bidder and negotiations moved inside.
ALBERT PARK, 158 Kerferd Road
SOI: $8,500,000 – $9,000,000
Sales Agent: Simon Gowling
Crowd: 150
Opening Bid: $8,500,000 VB
Passed in: $8,700,000 VB
Bidders: 0
Auctioneer Simon Gowling opened proceedings with a vendor bid prior to the property being passed in on a second vendor bid of 8.7million.
BRIGHTON, 3 Peacock Street
SOI: $3,800,000 – $3,950,000
Sales Agent: John Clarkson – Buxton
Crowd: 25
Opening Bid: $3,700,000 VB
Passed in: $3,700,000 VB
Bidders: 0
Johnny Clarkson opens and closes the bidding in Peacock street with just a vendor bid of $3,700,000.
BRIGHTON, 852 Hampton Street
SOI: $2,900,000 – $3,100,000
Sales Agent: Will Maxted – Kay & Burton
Crowd: 20
Opening Bid: $2,850,000 VB
Passed in: $2,850,000 VB
Bidders: 0
Opening and closing with a vendor bid of $2,850,000.
HAMPTON, 40 Orlando Street
SOI: $2,650,000 – $2,850,000
Sales Agent: Jenny Dwyer – Belle Property
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,650,000 VB
Passed in: $2,650,000 VB
Bidders: 0
The home is offered with a starting bid of $2,650,000 but with no bids from the crowd the home passed in at that figure.
BOROONDARA
The Inner East market has definitely lifted since December
WEEK 3 – 12 auctions
Clearance rate: 67%
Bidderman: 1.5
Boroondara overall – 36 Auction
Clearance rate: 61%
Bidderman: 1.8
CAMBERWELL, 24 Outlook Drive
SOI: $3,300,000 – $3,600,000
Sales Agent: Peter Vigano – Jellis Craig
Before auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
CAMBERWELL, 3 Bethela Street
SOI: $2,400,000 – $2,600,000
Sales Agent: Mark Pezzin – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 52
Opening Bid: $2,400,000
On market: $2,675,000
Under hammer: $2,860,000
Bidders: 2
A two-way race with steady rises exchanged. One bidder paused then returned for a final push, falling short a couple of bids later.
KEW, 44 Malin Street
SOI: $5,000,000 – $5,500,000
Sales Agent: Sam Wilkinson – Kay & Burton
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $5,700,000
On market: $5,800,000
Under hammer: $6,350,000
Bidders: 3
A strong opening bid of $5,700,000 resulted in three people separately asking if it was on the market. It wasn’t quite, but soon was as two battled on with another making a brief cameo in the low $6 million range. The opening bidder held off the competition to take the prize.
SURREY HILLS, 9 Amiens Street
SOI: $2,750,000 – $2,900,000
Sales Agent: Geordie Dixon – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 30
Opening Bid: $2,644,000
On market: $3,000,000
Under hammer: $undisc
Bidders: 4
From the opening bid of $2,644,000, rapid fire bidding between four parties took the price to $3,000,000 where it was declared on the market, with the hammer falling not long after.
GLEN IRIS, 69 Rowen Street
SOI: $2,500,000 – $2,700,000
Sales Agent: Daniel Wheeler – Marshall White
Crowd: 67
Opening Bid: $2,500,000 VB
On market: $2,680,000
Under hammer: $3,200,000
Bidders: 4
An auction with plenty of contested bidding activity which became somewhat drawn out when bidding increments broke down to $1000 and $2000 amounts.
CAMBERWELL, 40 Moorhead Street
SOI: $2,600,000 – $2,800,000
Sales Agent: Duane Wolowiec – Marshall White
Crowd: 38
Opening Bid: $2,600,000 VB
Passed in: $2,605,000
After auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
One bidder waited until the final moments before upping the vendor bid with a $5000 rise. A quiet street and a quiet crowd.
HAWTHORN, 43 Henrietta Street
SOI: $2,800,000 – $3,000,000
Sales Agent: Judy Balloch – Kay & Burton
Crowd: 35
Opening Bid: $2,800,000 VB
Passed in: $2,820,000
After auction: $2,935,000
Bidders: 1
A lone bidder from the crowd won the right to exclusively deal with the vendor post auction. Sold after.
HAWTHORN EAST, 17 Caroline Street
SOI: $3,400,000 – $3,600,000
Sales Agent: Anthony Smith – Marshall White
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $3,500,000 VB
Passed in: $3,525,000
After auction: $3,580,000
Bidders: 1
Auctioneer Anthony Smith opened with a $3,500,000 vendor bid, however this only encouraged one offer from one bidder, resulting in a pass-in at $3,525,000.
DEEPDENE, 7 Crest Avenue
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,200,000
Sales Agent: Jeff Phillips – RT Edgar
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,900,000 VB
Passed in: $2,950,000
Bidders: 1
Only one bidder spoke up after the initial vendor bid of $2,900,000, therefore the property was passed in at $2,950,000.
KEW, 15 Highbury Grove
SOI: $2,800,000 – $2,950,000
Sales Agent: Tim Mursell – Marshall White
Crowd: 20
Opening Bid: $2,850,000 VB
Passed in: $2,850,000 VB
Bidders: 0
Auctioneer Tim Mursell commenced with a vendor bid – to a silent crowd; which remained that way till the property was passed in at $2,850,000 (vendor bid).
CAMBERWELL, 6 Kirkwood Drive
SOI: $2,900,000 – $3,100,000
Sales Agent: Mark Josem – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 20
Opening Bid: $2,700,000 VB
Passed in: $2,750,000 VB
Bidders: 0
Silence from the crowd, the property was passed in
SURREY HILLS, 49 Florence Road
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Mark Read – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 30
Opening Bid: $3,000,000 VB
Passed in: $3,200,000 VB
Bidders: 0
A thorough preamble and three vendor bids placed by the auctioneer could not stir the crowd to action.
Cleverly zoned and incredibly private sanctuary in the prestigious Sackville Ward.
Paul Richards of Bekdon Richards 0414 503 324 or Mal James James Buy Sell 0408 107 988. SOI $5.5m – $6.0m
