Egg on Face?
by Gina Kantzas and Mal James
Bang Hawthorn: 3 Bidders circa $8million
On the eve of M3 – the Spring market – we feel change is in the air.
Right now, the direction of the Top End market on A-graders is strong and possibly up.
Market change began in November 2021 – circa 10% – reported a full 6 months ahead of the mainstream property media and followed on from the inaccurate bank economists doom and gloom coverage of 2020 and 2019 and again the false predicting of a market rising in 2018.
Why do The Age, the AFR and the economists they highlight, keep making the same mistakes season in and season out, and why does anybody still read them?
Well, like the football media – it’s entertaining, even if they pretend to be thoughtful.
The property media and ivory tower economists who make us laugh with great regularity ….. who in 2022/23 are predicting big – serious buyers and sellers don’t take mainstream “property economics” coverage seriously …… although one day they have to be right betting on black every time….
Why not be balanced and say it may….. but it also may not……
Because the big impending fall may be over just as they are reporting its start.
Spring 2022 feels like change – it may not be, and like any predictors we may have egg all over our face in a month (could be some early Pep and it fizzles, but it is there now) – however, it does feel like the winds of change are blowing and they feel a lot warmer, than at any other time in 2022.
If I was selling now and many of our clients are, then I would not be running scared unless I had a home that needed major work and I wasn’t discounting substantially to reflect that; or it was an over-priced B/C grader.
If I was buying now and I had to have it, then I would have a strategy for competition (if priced well) and a secondary one of patience, as stock coming into the market pre Xmas may have some competition from stales and that may soften prices compared to now.
Next weekend we start the M3 2022 100 Auction Test and it runs for 3 weeks. The results will be factual not speculative.
As a precursor – this is what we have seen this weekend.
Above: Hawthorn Grove Hawthorn (Richard Winneke) – sold under the hammer at close enough to $8m. 3 bidders under the hammer. Great home on my visit two weeks ago.
Bang Camberwell: 3 Bidders circa $4.5million
Kasouka Street Camberwell (Richard Earle) – 3 Bidders under the hammer $4,545,000. Good home and plenty through when we attended an OFI a while back.
Brighton: Under Offer - above $8million
Stanley St Brighton (Stefan Whiting) – already under offer $8m circa after only 2 weeks. Has had more sellers over recent journeys than Tiger premierships and looks like it has gone again. Strong numbers through on the open we attended.
Beach Road Black Rock (Matthew Pillios) – This is our photo from our first weekend out – we said strong OFI numbers. And the auction this weekend
Volcano Black Rock: circa $4.5million
Thank you so much Gina. 5 bidders. Opened up the bidding at $3.9M. Spirited bidding to $4.6m and sold under the hammer. Over five hundred people.
500 Matt?
Ok 150, but there was a helluva lot!
Huge numbers through Camberwell @ $6million
And check out this walk thru video we did for an overseas client on Chistowel St Camberwell (Scott Patterson) which was hard to do as a lot of people in attendance. The quote is $5.5m to $6m – the video I said $5m to $5.5m. We have now have no skin in this game selling or buying, but we can see a result past the quote – is $7m out of it? – may be if it’s all hot and sweaty come game time. Bang! This is a ripper, and the market will surely confirm that!!
Next week some may have egg on their faces! Again!
Right now, if you continue to take your information from the mainstream media and your advice from banking economists, then as buyers you will continue to miss on A-graders and as sellers you may leave on the table $500k on an unexplored price quote.
Take your advice for property from a local agent you can trust. Early days but….
2022 M3 – the Spring 100 Auction Test may make either the banking economists or us at James Buy Sell……..look right royal puddings……again
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