How Much is Toorak Worth?
May (2025M2) at marketnews.com.au – James Buy Sell Advocacy is publishing Melbourne Home, Land & Renovation Market Values
Mal James
Buy Sell Advocate
0408 107 988
mal@james.net.au
This Week in Melbourne Real Estate – A Market in Motion?
It’s been a busier week across Melbourne. A lot of new stock hit the market, both publicly and quietly. So I thought I’d take you behind the scenes into a fairly typical (and full) week: covering early auctions to gauge sentiment, inspecting post-holiday new listings, rating homes for buyers, preparing revised strategies for sellers, and as promised, touching on where land and build values currently sit. Let’s start with Toorak — reportedly down over 25% in 2024 (according to last week’s press).
Compared to the holding pattern of the past month — where few deals were getting over the line — this week felt more positive. Not dramatically so, but enough to notice. More conversations are happening. A few more deals are progressing.
Last week I outlined just how much the market has dropped — particularly over the last 12 months — and significantly. (Statistically, you know the bottom of the price burger). Many homes aren’t selling. Many buyers aren’t committing. Why? Expectations have been in many cases too far apart.
Deals happen when buyers and sellers are on the same page — ideally the same chapter. When they’re in different libraries, very little moves… until someone jumps: the buyer, under pressure or driven by desire; or the seller, adjusting price or getting a little lucky.
This part of the cycle is always tense — especially when expectations collide.
From a seller’s lens: Frustration builds when a home doesn’t sell. It’s worse when advice to “hold firm” comes from people who aren’t mentioning the other unsold homes they’re also backing. That kind of advice feels supportive — but it can keep owners stuck, both emotionally and financially.
From a buyer’s lens: Confusion sets in when there’s suddenly “strong competition” for a home — especially after ten others you’ve seen were completely quiet. It can feel like a game. But the truth is, homes with strong Position, Property, and Price — the A-Graders — still attract interest. The others? They’re sitting for a reason.
So yes, A-Graders are still selling. And if we get a little more political stability, a bit more decency in discourse, and maybe even an interest rate cut or two — we could be in for a stronger second half.
That is… if you already own a home. If you don’t — well, that’s another story entirely. So spare a thought for our young and some older women.
Round the Grounds Today
Not a lot happening on the auction front this weekend — but we still got out to a few. Next week is the first real test of the 2025M2 May market and the first post-election week — so we’ll get a read on whether political certainty is giving us a lift or not
No Bids - Armadale
No Bids - Brighton
Volcano in Camberwell
No Bids - Albert Park
Let’s Talk Market Reality. Understanding Toorak!
Understanding Value – The Price vs Value Conversation
Whether I’m working as a buyer advocate or seller advocate, valuing a property is one of my favourite parts of the job. It’s also one of the key reasons I’m engaged — to help make sense of the numbers and apply them to real homes.
So how do I value a property — and in particular, how do I approach the value of an A-grade Toorak home in 2025?
Let’s start with a few basic guidelines.
Price and value are not the same thing.
- Value is what we think something is worth.
- Price is what it actually sells for.
Think of the recent election: we all had a view on the value of the Liberal Party. But the real price wasn’t revealed until the votes were in.
Or think about suits.
You could buy a bespoke Huntsman suit on Savile Row for $10,000, a Hugo Boss suit online for $1,200, or a Peter Jackson off-the-rack for $600. All are made from wool. All roughly the same size. But they’re not interchangeable — and more importantly, the buyers for each aren’t browsing the same rack. So what’s the real market value of a suit?
Same goes for homes.
If you’re in the market for a $10 million home in Toorak, you’re not comparing it to a $3 million home in Malvern. And vice versa. They sit in different segments — and come with different expectations and definitions of value, depending on who you are.
Legally speaking, the value of a home (in a court case) is defined as: what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller, assuming both are reasonable people with full knowledge of the market. That last part — full knowledge — almost never exists. But let’s move on.
In many markets — cars, shares — price is often aligned to value. There’s a sticker, or a live trading feed. In real estate? Especially Melbourne’s top end? There is no live chart, no uniform rule book. Just interpretation, negotiation, and gut instinct — guided by experience.
The Price Burger Model
To work through value, I use a framework I call the Price Burger Model.
There are three core ingredients:
- Market forces (supply, demand, sentiment)
- The fundamentals of the home — Position + Property + Price (or Land + Building + Emotion)
- The individual circumstances — method of sale, agent, urgency, likelihood of competition, etc.
This isn’t a rigid formula — it’s a model that helps make sense of the moving parts.
From here, I typically come up with a value range as a starting point.
Then comes peer review, in three forms:
- First, internal conversations — with my team or trusted agents.
- Second, comparables — recent sales or current listings. Not because this is exact (it’s not), but because that’s how others are looking too.
- Third, market testing — either by making an offer (as a buyer advocate) or running an off-market campaign (as a seller advocate).
That’s the theory — and yes, there are many variations out there.
In Real Life…
When people say “it’s market forces,” what they usually mean is:
- What the buyer thinks it’s worth
- What the highest other competing buyer thinks it’s worth (if one exists)
- What the seller thinks it’s worth
Yes, the bank’s view or Aunt Mary’s opinion might matter — but at deal time, the top three perspectives are the only ones that count.
And if they’re not aligned, nothing happens. You can debate it — and many do — but at some point, you need to put a number on it and choose to engage.
Otherwise, you’re just two people shooting the breeze — a bit like a political party last weekend, a bit like me eyeing off a Savile Row suit, and maybe a bit like you, staring down a Toorak home wondering what it’s really worth.
Toorak Values – Have They Really Dropped 25%?
So, how is the Toorak market really performing? Has it actually dropped 25%, as reported a fortnight ago based on CoreLogic figures?
If you’re wondering whether your $10,000 per sqm block is now worth $7,500 per sqm — the short answer is: no.
The Toorak market is still functioning reasonably well. But yes, it’s on lower volumes, and prices are generally softer than they were at the 2022 peak.
Let’s look at the numbers (also available on the spreadsheet download — desktop viewing recommended for number nerds).
- 2021: ~135 sales above $5M
- 2024: ~100 sales above $5M
That’s a ~35% drop in $5M+ transaction volume over three years.
Now look at total dollar turnover (for all recorded sales above $5M):
- 2021: ~$2.1 billion
- 2022: ~$2.2 billion
- 2023: ~$2.2 billion (surprisingly stable)
- 2024: ~$1.8 billion
- 2024/2025 YTD: ~$1.4 billion (but some sales will not yet be recorded)
So while price per sqm isn’t collapsing, the liquidity in the market has fallen substantially — fewer buyers, fewer sellers, and less competition per property.
Median values from this dataset also show a clear downward shift:
- ~$9M in 2023
- ~$7.3M in 2024
A drop of over 20% in median pricing
What Does It Mean?
The Toorak market isn’t broken — it’s recalibrated.
- If you’re a seller, expecting $15,000 per sqm today because you got a bank valuation @ 10,000 per sqm in 2021? Probably not going to happen — unless you have an absolute A-grader.
- If you’re a buyer, assuming every $10,000 per sqm block is now suddenly worth $7,500 per sqm just because you read a headline? You won’t be buying anytime soon.
The key insight: The market has weakened, yes — but not collapsed. And that matters when I’m advising clients — whether they’re buying or selling — on what their land or home is likely worth in today’s market.
Why Does It Matter?
Understanding market trends matters — whether you’re buying or selling — because it helps you avoid costly assumptions.
If you’re a seller:
Market trends help frame your asking price strategy. When the buyer pool is smaller and the number of bidders is lower, it’s risky to assume you’ll end up with a “volcano auction” (where multiple buyers erupt into aggressive bidding).
So you face a choice:
- Price low to attract more eyeballs and try to create auction momentum
OR - Price high knowing you may only get one bidder — and that you’ll need to engage deeply and negotiate well to reach a good outcome
Both strategies have merit — but each suits a different type of home and market mood. Knowing the broader market helps you pick the right one.
If you’re a buyer:
Your thinking almost reverses:
- Is this asking price low to create competition?
- Or is it high and soft, leaving room to negotiate?
- Should I move fast, or wait the seller out?
- And when the agent tells me there are “three other interested parties”… is that statistically likely, or just a negotiation tactic?
Understanding current buyer demand, seller motivation, and historical context helps you make sharper calls — and avoid bidding emotionally or hesitating unnecessarily.
Footnote:
Looking at the figures in the excel download above — just pause and consider how much the top end of the Toorak market has shifted from 2015/2016 to 2022/2023.
That’s market theory meeting market reality. WOW
Next week, we start our May (2025M2) 100 Auction Test — let’s begin putting all this into practice:
values, pricing, appraisals — whatever term you prefer — applied to real homes, real buyers, and real outcomes.
Toorak to Malvern - New Stock I looked at this week
24–26 Mayfield Avenue, Malvern; Inspected: May 7
Position: North rear. Top of cul-de-sac. Elevated. Toorak-border feel.
Home Type: Grodski-designed architectural – 18 years old but feels timeless.
This home really surprised me – in a good way. I wasn’t expecting to find this level of quality, proportion, and feel. Quoted $7.2m–$7.6m by Darren Lewenberg, who I rate as a solid operator. This home is well-priced for the right buyer, particularly those who value quiet parkside positioning, big land (914sqm), and proper architecture – not fashion, not fluff, but substance.
Also Buyer Ratings available to discuss - Mal inspected this week
• 322 Walsh St South Yarra - agent Ada Taylor quoting $14.5m to $15.5m
Interesting townhouse with all the bells and whistles
• 5B Yarradale Road Toorak - agent Nicole Gleeson quoting $3.25m to $3.5m
Older townhouse at a good price for it has some land – steps?
• 7 Blackfriars Close Toorak - agent Nicole French quoting $6m to $6.6m
Quirky townhouse / type house – that could be a shell for something better
• 1 Vincent St Glen Iris - agent Fiona Ansell-Jones
“The agent is quoting $3.5m to $3.85m, and it’s on a great land size with rear access. This home is a project, but potentially a relatively simple one, with clear value-add opportunities. It suits a range of buyers — from builders to downsizers to families willing to work for a good home.”
• 150 Finch Street Glen Iris - agent Fiona Council quoting $6m to $6.6m
Big land in a great locationwith a home that has its challenges and a readjusting price – may be falling into the buy zone soon
• 205 Walsh Street South Yarra - agent Antoinette Nido quoting $10.5m to $11.5m
The location is hard to overcapitalise on – feels likes there could be a project here – garaging needs some thought
• 67 Sutherland Road Armadale
Agent Grant Samuel is quoting $6m–$6.6m for this 935sqm block in Malvern – and says there’s no Heritage Overlay.
From my inspection on May 1, the existing home has real potential — not for everyone, but for someone with imagination, trade access, and some spare capital, this could be more than just a block.
But if you don’t see value in retaining and rejuvenating what’s there, then you’re asking the rebuild question. And if capitalisation matters, then the next logical step is this:
At what all-in number does this actually make sense?
This is not a boring offering — it has shape, it has depth, and it has challenge.
It’s also relatively rare.
As are buyers right now with the stomach to make this kind of project work.
Full Buyer Ratings and Values available.
• 12 Yarradale Road Toorak - agent Darren Lewenberg quoting $17.5m to $18.5m
Not big land at 720 sqm – but clearly, this home has struck a chord.
When I inspected, there was a herd of people going through, so it’s attracting attention.
The key questions for any serious buyer now become:
What do you pay for a home like this?
What’s the real opportunity cost if you’re thinking of building new instead?
And just how many others share your view enough to compete in an EOI process?
If you want it – are you prepared to fight for it?
• 43 Chatsworth Road Prahran - agent Carla Fetter is quoting $2.2m to $2.4m
Declaration: I have a financial interest in this home as I’m managing the sale process. That said — it’s attracting genuine interest.
43 Chatsworth Road, Prahran It is now live online and saw 34 groups through last weekend alone, a strong early indicator of market engagement.
If you’re considering this home, the key questions remain:
What do you value in this pocket — land, architecture, potential, or lifestyle?
What’s the replacement cost or opportunity cost of missing it?
And how much do others value what you’re seeing?
Early interest suggests competition — and the right buyer could act with confidence.
Inner East - New Stock I covered this week
37 Linda Crescent, Hawthorn
Inspected May 8th — by Mal James
This is a very rare bird indeed, especially if you’re looking to stay in — or move into — Grace Park, one of Melbourne’s premier residential pockets.
What makes it so rare? It’s a modern townhouse nestled within a heritage overlay precinct — a place typically defined by period homes, not contemporary architecture. But this isn’t just any townhouse.
This one is special —
Classy in design
Seamlessly connected to its leafy, historic surroundings
Genuinely private
And while not brand new, it remains crisp, considered, and low-maintenance
It’s a home that speaks to those who want refinement without the upkeep of an older property.
For a full breakdown of flow, feel, and liveability, check out my walkthrough video.
Mal James
James Buyer Advocates
Also Buyer Ratings available to discuss - Mal inspected this week
• 22 Anderson Street Hawthorn East - agent James Tostevin quoting $5m to $5.5m
Big rambling house on a big rambling block – some recent on and off market sales are pointers top where this may go.
• 18 Coleridge Street Kew - agent James Tostevin quoting $7.3m to $7.8m
Been to market a number of times over the years and presents some interesting considerations — both for and against.
• 20 Carson Street Kew - agent Sophie Su is quoting $3.6m to $3.96m
Also presents some interesting considerations — both for and against.
• 40 Carramar Avenue Camberwell - agent Sam Wilkinson quoting $7m to $7.7m
Bayside and Port Phillip - out and about mid week
• 2 Milliara Grove Brighton East - agent Michael Hingston is quoting $3.7m to $4m
Want to see how Hollywood was, come and check out this Art Deco Blast from the Past – you will not see another like this ever!
• 10 Farleigh Grove Brighton - agent Michael Hingston is quoting $11m to $12m
At first, it felt like I had walked into The Good Guys, not one of Brighton’s incredible new homes — you can never have too many TVs!
I like architect’s Pleysier Perkins’ work. I’ve been involved in buying and selling their homes before, and this one is no exception — it’s a testament to their quality.
Beyond the abundance of screens, this home is brilliantly located in a Brighton cul-de-sac and is, quite simply, an architectural statement.
A Base Reference for Better Decisions
Through May and into winter, we’ll be outlining how the market is currently valuing the core ingredients of your property — land, building, and renovation — across inner Melbourne, select outer areas, and key regional centres.
It’s not a forecast.
It’s not a pitch.
It’s a base reference. A structured lens.
You could call it a kind of Melbourne Property Bible — not to dictate decisions, but to support clearer thinking. To provide context. To give you a grounded sense of where the general market sits.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or renovating, it’s about knowing how your property stacks up — not in theory, but in the eyes of today’s buyers and sellers.
The Melbourne Land, Building and Renovation Values Book
James Buy Sell Advocates – 2025 M² Edition
Because in uncertain times, a well-calibrated baseline is one of the most valuable tools you can have.
