REIV or Marketnews Stats - marketnews.com.au

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Is REIV or Marketnews Advice Credible? It Matters

We are proud members of the REIV, and we don’t mind a bit of spin ourselves – but frankly the often-quoted REIV results vs Marketnews results are causing angst with buyers and sellers alike.

The angst is because on the REIV Clearance Rate stats of 80% this week you would think

the market hasn’t changed and we disagree it has changed
the market is in boom and we disagree it is not
the market is rising and we disagree it is actually easing.

On an individual basis this dichotomy hurts agents and advocates, sellers and buyers. When sellers ask why my property has not sold or why do I need to lower my price expectations, for the REIV results say the market is booming and Marketnews says the opposite.

Stats Don't Lie?

Ok, how can the REIV and Marketnews both be right?

We at Marketnews say the clearance rates are in the 60’s maybe low 70’s at times – price is balanced to easing
The REIV says this weekend in the 80’s – booming prices

Could it be with the method behind the reporting of Clearance Rates?

We at Marketnews choose and physically cover 100 Auctions and we report on 100% of the results over 3 weeks. We do it 4 times a year – the same 4 times (Opening, May, Early Spring and Pre Xmas). It’s a lot smaller sample than the REIV – but it’s a complete sample.

The REIV has a much bigger sample but relies on agents to voluntarily report their results and they do it every week.

This week far less than 50% of their chosen sample have reported results. Reported 724 and unreported hidden away down the bottom was 941. So, it’s a lot bigger and wider sample but it’s not even 50% complete and has a potentially significant bias error.

Bias? I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t rush to put up my pass-ins publicly by 6pm – I would be focusing on negotiating with buyers or strategic thinking of next steps or even drowning sorrows with others and hoping it sorts.

Now not all the unreported ones will be pass-ins but…………we at Marketnews say the overall market is balanced to easing and yet the REIV says it is booming.

We can’t all be right!