Week 2 – A Lot Better
by James Buy Sell Top End Melbourne
GLEN IRIS, 30 Howard Street SOI: $4,300,000 – $4,700,000 Sales Agent: Jason Brinkworth – Marshall White Crowd: 110 Opening Bid: $4,300,000 VB On the Market: $4,700,000 Under the Hammer: $4,715,000
Bidders: 4 Non-stop action with plenty of watchers-on. 4 bidders and two vendor referrals, bought under the hammer with a clutch $5,000 bid
1. MACRO MARKET
SPRING 2021 M3
2.5
LOW
90%
MAY 2022 M2
1.4
LOW
68%
SPRING 2022 M3
1.4
LOW
65%
AUGUST 27
1.2
LOW
55%
SEP 3
1.7
LOW
76%
As better stock was on show today, so the market results were better. There was a clearance/agreement rate on price between buyers and sellers of 76%, on the 30 auctions we covered, in the 2nd week of 2022’s 3rd major.
It is a lot better than the 55% on the 30 Top End auctions we covered last week.
Overall, on the 61 auctions covered in the last fortnight, clearances are at 65%.
We see 2022M3 as line ball, between a still cooling market and a stabilizing market.
Even with today’s improvement, 1 in 2 auctions was a Woody or a Loner (0 or 1 bidder) – that’s a lot of non-auctions, but better than the 75% of non-auctions of last week.
Surely these consistent numbers ask the thinking seller – is auction always the way to go?
Yes, it’s the easiest for the agent, but is it the best for you? Granted Off-markets and EOIs are not flying out the door either.
Today, more sold afterward than they did last week – a reflection on stock and more sellers accepting the evidence in front of them.
What does this all mean?
On very low Supply – due to many potential sellers still being fearful of going to market – we have seen a market appearing to be levelling out but…….. 2 big factors
Demand: Bidderrers (new name for Bidderman) @ 1.7 today and over the two weeks @ 1.4 bidders per auction, shows a real lack of across-the-board depth AND ………
……we can’t stress enough, that this is all on a very, very low base of stock (seasonally adjusted). The jury is well and truly out, on the market state, if stock levels increase noticeably.
So, let’s not get carried away (only 2 Volcanoes today). We are not saying the market is firing, but it is far from completely dead either – if you get price right, then there are deals to be had.
Quoting: We have talked a lot about price recently. If you are a buyer, (with very few exceptions) you don’t need to be flying past the quote on any initial offers and if you are a seller and you choose a lazy agent who quotes low, then you will surely be leaving money on the table.
Underquoting makes little sense for sellers and buyers most times, but in this market, for sellers, it’s downright idiotic – only 4 Volcanoes in 61 Auctions – that’s the point of a lying underquote (to get a false volcano) and Volcanoes are only running at a 7% success rate.
In this market (cooling – levelling maybe), even A-Graders must be sensitive to market – if not, then they are not an A-Grader, as they will not sell due to price. One in 3 homes are not selling.
Good Pricing from a Great Storyteller
The Glen Iris home (Jason Brinkworth), featured above, is an example of smart quoting.
Quoted either side of mid $4m’s – a big number for its location. However, having been through it during the campaign, we can confirm this renovated federation home, with its own heritage overlay, was worth that sort of record freight.
No doubt many of you got the stories through the week of it struggling big time (we didn’t believe it) – but it was successful in attracting a crowd.
Today Howard Street was squeezed (2 seller referrals) onto the market at $4.7m (the top of the quote) and came to a thudding halt only $15,000 later – despite there being a volcanic element to the auction – 4 bidders.
The sellers would have wanted $5m at the start (our opinion) but even A-graders (and this is one) must be priced right, as the auction proved, to sell. It also proved what an A-Grader agent does to manage buyers, sellers and price in this market. Well done Jason!
Next week is the last of our Spring Auction 100 test and so far, it’s been a mixed showbag!
Happy Father’s Day – aren’t we are a wonderful contribution to the human race – just ask our children and our spouses and ex-wives on any other day. More importantly Go Pies!
- The consensus amongst agents is that the market has fallen around 10% in price expectations (more for reno’s and B/C Graders and less for A-graders) since the Cup Day 2021 last peak.
- We have had 3 falling markets – 2021M4, 2022M1 and 2022M2
- Currently the falls feel like they are abating somewhat, but on very low stock levels, and this is our key Spring analysis focus – to confirm or deny the seemingly positive mood swing coming out of Winter and leading into 2022M3 Spring.
More on Supply and Demand Levels coming out of Winter and into 2022M3 Spring:
- Stock Levels / Supply: Currently it is low compared to previous years (non-pandemic)
- Bidderers (formerly Bidderman but we have gone pc) / Demand: Currently low
- Clearance: Price – shows buyer and seller agreement on price. Currently low, except for the Top of the Top End and true A-Graders.
In a word, today’s Auction market was poor, BUT there wasn’t a lot of exciting stuff to bid on. In fact, we found it hard to find enough auctions to cover, BUT overall, the market was disappointing and negative compared to the last few weeks.
Bidderers (Bidders per auction) was a paltry 1.2 and only two volcanoes. In the isolation of today it implies weakness; 2 in every 3 auctions were a Woody (0 bidders) or a Loner (1 bidder) – and if this remains consistent over the 3 weeks, it will show a lack of depth.
Poor depth means few wounded underbidders, meaning further falls – meaning:
- Sellers need to be smarter than normal and explore your auction alternatives such as Off-market, EOI’s and even Hold.
- Buyers there are A-Grade opportunities now, but they may well dry up if future sellers see weakness and don’t bring their homes to market, this side of Christmas.
- Buy & Sellers – it’s about risk and risk management and process is a key to an extra $500,000 on a $5,000,000 deal. Sell first and know what $ you have but see the new homes you want dry up or you must compete like crazy – look at 8 Rockingham today – volcano and 50%, yes 50% above the on the market price. Buy first and risk a haircut or even an anchor, if you go to auction and not sell, like 45% of the market did today.
Today’s summary – not a great start, however
- The stock was not exciting today. But when it was, it still flew – read our Boroondara analysis on 2 A-Graders.
- Stock is very low and that can distort stats.
- Was today a blip – it felt different from even last week? In market trends there are speed humps and potholes – today was a pothole, despite the fact there were still a lot of people at some opens.
The next two weeks are important for 2022 M3 Spring: and before I admit to being poached by any economists’ eggs (I have given them a shellacking haven’t I) or confirm the potholes are turning into something more, our best practical advice is and has been:
- prior to starting a Buy or Sell or a Buy & Sell, one should have an eye on a Plan B, not just assume a smooth-running Plan A, and even better would be to have a pre-plan of testing multiple options to confirm Plan A or Plan B or even a Plan C, unless a better result doesn’t matter to you.
- Buying or selling don’t stick your head in the sand and hope, for in this market it may get stuck there!
- A good sale or buy price is not just about the Macro market – there are two other markets to consider (Micro PPP and Individual).
2. MICRO MARKETS - POSITION
BAYSIDE PORT PHILLIP
1.2
LOW
62%
BOROONDARA
1.7
LOW
65%
STONNINGTON
1.4
LOW
71%
MICRO MARKETS PROPERTY
MICRO MARKETS PRICE
3. INDIVIDUAL MARKETS
Bayside & Port Phillip Live!
by Gina Kantzas and Mal James
Albert Park Brighton Brighton East Elsternwick Elwood Hampton Middle Park
ALBERT PARK, 22 Madden Street SOI: $2,650,000 – $2,900,000 Sales Agent: Oliver Bruce – Marshall White Crowd: 80 Opening Bid: $2,800,000 VB On the Market: $3,090,000 Under the Hammer: $3,275,000 Bidders: 3 Photo: Sim
HAMPTON – Withdrawn/Changed Method
BRIGHTON EAST, 30 Letchworth Avenue
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: James Paynter – James Paytner Real Estate
Before Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
HAMPTON EAST, 47 Lonsdale Avenue
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Matthew Pillios – Marshall White
Crowd: 35
Opening Bid: $3,000,000 VB
Passed in: $3,000,000
Bidders: 0
No bids from the quiet crowd in Lonsdale St this morning.
ALBERT PARK, 22 Madden Street
SOI: $2,650,000 – $2,900,000
Sales Agent: Oliver Bruce – Marshall White
Crowd: 80
Opening Bid: $2,800,000 VB
On the Market: $3,090,000
Under the Hammer: $3,275,000
Bidders: 3
3 bidders fought it out in front of a large crowd before the home was knocked down to Bidder 3.
ST KILDA WEST, 19 Park Lane
SOI: $2,350,000 – $2,550,000
Sales Agent: Sarah Wood – Marshall White
Crowd: 25
Opening Bid: $2,350,000 VB
Passed in: $2,510,000
After Auction: $2,610,000
Bidders: 2
After a quiet start, two bidders stepped forward. The property passed in and later sold to the first bidder.
BEAUMARIS, 25 Haldane Street
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Michael Cooney – Hodges
Crowd: 50
Opening Bid: $3,200,000
On the Market: $3,460,000
Under the Hammer: $3,505,000
Bidders: 3
Bidder 1 was in it to win it, opening the bidding $3,200,000 and beating 2 other bidders before the home was knocked down at $3,505,000
BRIGHTON EAST, 184 Dendy Street
SOI: $2,450,000 – $2,650,000
Sales Agent: Barb Gregory – Marshall White
Crowd: 34
Opening Bid: $2,450,000
Passed in: $2,460,000
After Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
Even the sunshine couldn’t bring out the buyers today. After an opening vendor bid only one crowd member put up their hand before the property was passed in.
ALBERT PARK, 3 Hambleton Street
SOI: $2,800,000 – $2,900,000
Sales Agent: Simon Gowling – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 44
Opening Bid: $2,800,000 VB
Passed in: $2,800,000 VB
Bidders: 0
Arms stayed folded in Hambleton Street this afternoon. The property opened and passed in on the vendor bid of $2,800,000.
ALBERT PARK, 100 Page Street
SOI: $2,400,000 – $2,640,000
Sales Agent: Simon Carruthers – Cayzer
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,400,000
On the Market: $2,605,000
Under the Hammer: $2,640,000
Bidders: 3
Two bidders swiftly brought the property onto the market. After a short break, Bidder three swooped in at the end to take the prize. Sold under the hammer at the top of the quote range.
Boroondara Live!
by Gina Kantzas and Mal James
Camberwell Canterbury Glen Iris Hawthorn Hawthorn East Kew
HAWTHORN EAST, 1 Hastings Road SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000 Sales Agent: Desiree Wakim – Marshall White Crowd: 65 Opening Bid: $3,000,000 VB Passed in: $3,100,000 After Auction: $undisc Bidders: 3 Photo – Kieran
KEW, 13 Mountain Grove
SOI: $5,400,000 – $5,800,000
Sales Agent: Judy Balloch – Kay & Burton
Before Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
HAWTHORN EAST, 9 Leura Grove
SOI: $4,400,000 – $4,800,000
Sales Agent: Michael Armstrong – Kay & Burton
Before Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
GLEN IRIS, 30 Howard Street
SOI: $4,300,000 – $4,700,000
Sales Agent: Jason Brinkworth – Marshall White
Crowd: 110
Opening Bid: $4,300,000 VB
On the Market: $4,700,000
Under the Hammer: $4,715,000
Bidders: 4
Non-stop action with plenty of watchers-on. 4 bidders and two vendor referrals, bought under the hammer with a clutch $5,000 bid.
CANTERBURY, 25 Maysia Street
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Peter Varellas – Nelson Alexander
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $3,000,000 VB
On the Market: $3,330,000
Under the Hammer: $3,500,000
Bidders: 3
Large crowd with majority families and international buyers, Vendor opening bid at $3,000,000. Bidding battle between three families before selling under the hammer at $3,500,000.
CANTERBURY, 4 Willandra Avenue
SOI: $4,500,000 – $4,950,000
Sales Agent: Stephen Gough – Marshall White
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $4,500,000 VB
Passed in: $4,500,000 VB
Bidders: 0
The opening bid went unanswered and the auction ended on a vendor pass.
HAWTHORN EAST, 45 Rathmines Road
SOI: $3,500,000 – $3,800,000
Sales Agent: Anton Zhouk – Anton Zhouk Real Estate
Crowd: 20
Opening Bid: $3,400,000
Passed in: $3,740,000
After Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 2
The auction commenced with an opening bid of $3,400,000. With the participation of the two bidders, the property was formally passed in at $3,740,000. Sold after.
SURREY HILLS, 40 Suffolk Road
SOI: $3,250,000 – $3,575,000
Sales Agent: Ross Stryker – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $3,250,000
On the Market: $3,550,000
Under the Hammer: $3,650,000
Bidders: 2
Rapid-fire bids between two parties brought the property on the market, Bidder 1 holding on to the high bid to buy under the hammer.
HAWTHORN EAST, 8 Stanley Avenue
SOI: $2,500,000 – $2,750,000
Sales Agent: Mark Josem – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 55
Opening Bid: $2,500,000
On the Market: $2,660,000
Under the Hammer: $2,770,000
Bidders: 3
Fast pace bidding battle between 3 families, starting off with an opening bid of $2,500,000 from the audience the race was on! Sold under the hammer at $2,770,000.
CAMBERWELL, 8 Radnor Street
SOI: $2,500,000 – $2,750,000
Sales Agent: Mike Beardsley – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,500,000
On the Market: $2,695,000
Under the Hammer: $2,745,000
Bidders: 2
A Vendor Bid of $2,500,000 kick off the auction. Two parties battle it out, eventuating in Bidder 2 claiming victory and purchasing the property for $2,745,000.
CAMBERWELL, 51 Lansell Crescent
SOI: $2,280,000 – $2,400,000
Sales Agent: Chloe Quinn – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 50
Opening Bid: $2,210,000 VB
Passed in: $2,210,000 VB
Bidders: 0
Quiet crowd consisting of couples and neighbours, vendor opening bid of $2,210,000. With no bids the home was passed in at $2,210,000.
HAWTHORN EAST, 1 Hastings Road
SOI: $3,000,000 – $3,300,000
Sales Agent: Desiree Wakim – Marshall White
Crowd: 65
Opening Bid: $3,000,000 VB
Passed in: $3,100,000
After Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 3
A late $10,000 from a third bidder was not enough to shake Bidder 1 from securing the first right to negotiate.
HAWTHORN, 4 Berkeley Street
SOI: $4,700,000 – $5,100,000
Sales Agent: Chris Barrett – Marshall White
Crowd: 30
Opening Bid: $4,700,000 VB
Passed in: $4,7000,000 VB
Bidders: 0
The opening vendor bid, met with silence, resulted in a vendor pass.
Stonnington Live!
by Gina Kantzas and Mal James
Armadale Malvern Malvern East Prahran Richmond South Yarra Toorak
SOUTH YARRA, 41 Motherwell Street SOI: $2,850,000 – $3,100,000 Sales Agent: Andrew Hayne – Marshall White Crowd: 100 Opening Bid: $2,800,000 VB On the Market: $3,200,000 Under the Hammer: $4,040,000 Bidders: 5 Photo: Jo
ARMADALE, 14 Mount Pleasant Grove
SOI: $2,900,000 – $3,100,000
Sales Agent: Carla Fetter – Jellis Craig
Before Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
MALVERN EAST, 6 Brunel Street
SOI: $1,900,000 – $2,090,000
Sales Agent: David Volpato – Marshall White
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $1,900,000 VB
On the Market: $2,100,000
Under the Hammer: $2,215,000
Bidders: 2
After a slow start and a vendor bid the sun warmed up the crowd to see 2 bidders battle it out to purchase this home.
SOUTH YARRA, 41 Motherwell Street
SOI: $2,850,000 – $3,100,000
Sales Agent: Andrew Hayne – Marshall White
Crowd: 100
Opening Bid: $2,800,000 VB
On the Market: $3,200,000
Under the Hammer: $4,040,000
Bidders: 5
Andrew Hayne opened with a $2,800,000 vendor bid, which gave rise to frenzied bidding activity between 5 parties – the property was announced to be on the market at $3,200,000, then it cracked the $4,000,000 mark, then resulted in an eventual price of $4,040,000.
MALVERN, 11 Fraser Street
SOI: $3,850,000 – $4,200,000
Sales Agent: Tim Bennison – Jellis Craig
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $3,850,000 VB
Passed in: $3,950,000 VB
Bidders: 0
The auction commenced with an opening Vendor Bid of $3,850,000. With a further Vendor Bid of $3,950,000 and silence from the crowd, the home was formally passed in.
MALVERN, 4-6 Robinson Street
SOI: $4,000,000 – $4,400,000
Sales Agent: Rae Tomlinson – Marshall White
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $4,000,000 VB
On the Market: $4,500,000
Under the Hammer: $4,580,000
Bidders: 3
After auctioneer Justin Long opened with a $4,000,000 vendor bid, three parties escalated the bidding to $4,500,000 when the property was declared on the market; soon afterwards, the hammer fell at $4,580,000.
GLEN IRIS (STONNINGTON), 37 Dorrington Avenue
SOI: $3,600,000 – $3,900,000
Sales Agent: Daniel Wheeler – Marshall White
Crowd: 58
Opening Bid: $3,600,000
Passed in: $3,600,000
After Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
After a quick opening crowd bid the pace came to an abrupt halt prior to the property being passed in.
MALVERN EAST, 76 Kerferd Street
SOI: $2,600,000 – $2,700,000
Sales Agent: Karl Fitch – Fitch Partners
Crowd: 40
Opening Bid: $2,500,000 VB
Passed in: $2,700,000
After Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 2
After auctioneer Karl Fitch opened with a $2,500,000 vendor bid, two bidders’ offers weren’t enough to reach the reserve, resulting the property being passed in.
ARMADALE, 393 Dandenong Road
SOI: $2,050,000 – $2,250,000
Sales Agent: David Volpato – Marshall White
Crowd: 10
Opening Bid: $2,100,000 VB
On the Market: $2,350,000
Under the Hammer: $2,380,000
Bidders: 3
Initially it appeared that this would be a quiet, quick auction, then three bidders entered, taking the price to a hammer-falling $2,380,000.
MALVERN, 2C Thanet Street
SOI: $2,000,000 – $2,200,000
Sales Agent: Nicholas Brooks – – Marshall White
Crowd: 60
Opening Bid: $1,950,000 VB
Passed in: $1,970,000
After Auction: $undisc
Bidders: 1
The auction commenced with an opening bid of $1,950,000. After a bid was placed of $1,970,000 and a half time break, the property was formally passed in.
Three Cheers for Kay and Burton - No Watermark
Is it just us or do you find it annoying and distracting to see an agent logo watermarked on a classic shot of a home you are selling or buying? Now we love self-promotion more than almost anybody else, but we do not put watermarks on the pictures of the homes we sell at James Buy Sell and neither does Kay & Burton.
It takes your eye away from the singular power focus of a great shot. It’s wrong.
If it gets up your goat as much as it does ours – insist the agency DOES NOT put their logo all over your wonderful home visuals. After all, it’s about your home, not us agents and you are paying for the photos!
There you go, another bit of self-promotion with our moniker all over it!!!
In tougher markets, you need to be innovative. We offered $15k out of our fee to any agent who could get the number our client wanted. Will Maxted – stepped up to the plate, job done and additional incentive paid, to the commission Max would normally receive.
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