91 percent

by Gina Kantzas, Mal James, Simone Clarke, Kathy Russell, Phoebe James, Randall Smith

Saturday, February 20th, 2021

Market in a Minute

Market fast start

The title says it all – no need for adjectives or lily gilding – 91, the number says it all.

Of the 32 auctions we covered today, 29 sold before, under the hammer or immediately after – that is a clearance rate of 91%.

Over 50% sold were in excess of the agent quote with:

4 selling $300,000 over the top end of the quote
3 selling $500,000 over the top end of the quote
2 selling $600,000 over the top end of the quote

Bidder numbers were incredibly strong and more on that next week.

Huge crowds
Many young couples never seen before, were out
Wounded underbidders aplenty

Market beginning to feel like 2016. Heat has increased since October Lockdown ended.

These results feel they will continue for the next few weeks at least, as there is simply way too much urgent buyer sentiment in the market right now, for things to cool quickly.

Stock levels are a big factor and whilst more stock or world events may ease things after Easter, right now the market is on fire if the home is:

A PPP A-Grader
Quoted to attract
Publicly listed rather than off-market

Demand – last year what the predicting economists and bank leaders said was absolute BS (with little basis in modern history or logic), but it did hold some buyers back.

In early 2021 those and a new crop of cashed-up buyers are not waiting and the pile-in, particularly in the $2m to $6m range, is causing a major demand/supply imbalance, leading to significant price increases.

Prices must continue to rise and sharply whilst the current sentiment prevails in the $2m to $6m range. Are we up 5% in a month – yes! Are we up 10% since October – probably!

The Top of the Top End is really the only $ segment we are unclear on. However, with a few big sales and two over $20,000,000 this week, all markets may be in for a strong, pre-Easter period.

Market Strength

Market Statement

Today’s market was an unequivocal statement on living in Melbourne.

Tree change, state of mind change, sea change, economic change, Covid change.

Some people are saying and doing change.

However, many, many more are stating their unending love for Melbourne and Melburnians.

They are saying Melbourne is the place I want to be, and Melbourne is the place I want my family to grow up in.

Many spoke loudly, very loudly today on how proud they are of this great city.

And how strongly they are prepared to fight to join or to continue to be a part of.

Vive la Melbourne and Vive la Melburnians in all languages!!!

Market Test

Methodology: Four times a year (Early, May, Spring and pre Xmas) we at James Buy Sell measure the auction markets over a 3 week period, by covering 100 Top End auctions. We randomly choose the auctions before the weekend and we cover or chase down every result, so the measurements are accurate.

Here are the first 32 auctions, next week a similar number and then the week after the March long weekend we will complete 100 Auctions. This will tell all where the markets are truly at and how they compare to previous years.

Suburb	Address	SOI	Result
GLEN IRIS (Stonnington)	9 Dorrington Avenue	$4,000,000- $4,250,000	SOLD HAMMER
GLEN IRIS (Stonnington)	47 Aintree Road	$2,400,000- $2,600,000	Sold – Before Auction
PRAHRAN	21 Airlie Avenue	$3,000,000- $3,300,000	Sold – Before Auction
MALVERN	2 Hunter Street	$2,800,000- $2,900,000	SOLD HAMMER
MALVERN	16 Alice Street	$2,400,000- $2,600,000	PASSED IN
MALVERN EAST	2 Wynyeh Street	$2,600,000- $2,800,000	Sold – Before Auction
SOUTH YARRA	27 Hope Street	$2,500,000- $2,750,000	SOLD
MALVERN EAST	33 Ardrie Road	$2,000,000- $2,200,000	SOLD
PRAHRAN	48 Larnook Street	$3,500,000- $3,850,000	SOLD
MALVERN EAST	17 Nott Street	$2,000,000- $2,200,000	SOLD
HAMPTON	8 Kerferd Street	$2,300,000- $2,400,000	SOLD
BRIGHTON	10 Hartley Street	$3,000,000- $3,300,000	SOLD
MIDDLE PARK	109 Wright Street	$3,300,000- $3,500,000	SOLD AFTER
BRIGHTON	26 St Ninians Road	$8,000,000- $8,800,000	SOLD AFTER
ELWOOD	25 Spray Street	$2,800,000- $3,000,000	SOLD
BRIGHTON	27 Were Street	$3,800,000- $4,180,000	SOLD AFTER
ALBERT PARK	17 Kerferd Place	$2,400,000- $2,600,000	Sold – Before Auction
ALBERT PARK	5 Boyd Street	$2,900,000- $3,100,000	SOLD
BRIGHTON EAST	49 Marriage Road	$2,400,000- $2,600,000	SOLD
HAMPTON	66 Littlewood Street	$2,100,000- $2,200,000	SOLD
GLEN IRIS	63 Great Valley Road	$2,200,000- $2,420,000	Sold – Before Auction
KEW	3 Wimba Avenue	$2,400,000- $2,600,000	SOLD
HAWTHORN	46 Illawarra Road	$4,840,000- $5,300,000	PASSED IN
CAMBERWELL	35 Donna Buang Street	$3,250,000- $3,575,000	SOLD
GLEN IRIS	19 Bourne Road	$2,800,000- $3,000,000	SOLD
HAWTHORN	24 Lyndhurst Crescent	$3,200,000- $3,500,000	Sold – Before Auction
CANTERBURY	1 Griotte Street	$2,300,000- $2,500,000	SOLD
CAMBERWELL	92 Cooloongatta Road	$1,900,000- $2,090,000	PASSED IN
CAMBERWELL	41 Pine Avenue	$2,700,000- $2,970,000	SOLD
HAWTHORN EAST	16 Airedale Avenue	$2,700,000- $2,900,000	SOLD HAMMER
KEW	10 Belmont Avenue	$4,100,000- $4,500,000	Sold – Before Auction
HAWTHORN	19 Gardiner Road	$3,600,000- $3,950,000	SOLD Hammer

Market Balance

Please: We are not trying to imply that the Melbourne family home markets will not have hiccups in the near and medium-term or that you should be financially impulsive on any home. All markets involving human emotion are prone to rises and falls and good and bad decision making.

However, the longer-term fundamentals of demand increases (returning ex-pats, new wealthy migrants and increased local wealth) combined with limited supply (good homes on good land at good prices – PPP), mean Melbourne with its world-class features of education and politics and pollution and safety and…. will continue to be a far more attractive investment proposition, than what was stated in some parts of the general financial media last year.

So today all we are reporting is Melbourne has great long-term property fundamentals and has started 2021 very fast and strong and for now price, is heading upwards at some pace.

Malvern

2 Hunter Street, Malvern
Auctioneer: Daniel Wheeler
Open: $2,700,000 (vendor bid)
On market: $2,980,000
Under Hammer: $3,060,000
Bidders: 2
Crowd: 50

‘Get your weekends back. No more dealing with agents’, it was good to see auctioneer Daniel Wheeler’s sense of humour intact. It was to be a fairly quick affair played out between two bidders. Both were comfortable trading swift bids up to $2,900,000 before moving in 20s to the ‘on market’ price. A few more bids followed before the hammer came down.

Glen Iris

9 Dorrington Avenue, Glen Iris
Auctioneer: Andrew McCann
Open: $3,900,000
On market: $4,325,000
Under Hammer: $4,860,000
Bidders: 6
Crowd: 50

Six bidders had a go with several entering at their own trigger points as the price climbed. Plenty of action played out beyond the on-market call when Bidder 5 stepped in at $4,420,000 and Bidder 6 at $4,550,000. It was to be the earlier entrant, Bidder 2, who locked horns with the latecomers. A call and response battle of bids ensued when $10,000s were answered with $1000s, Bidder 2 eventually holding on for the win.

Hawthorn

46 Illawarra Road, Hawthorn
Auctioneer: James Tostevin
Open: $4,900,000 (vendor bid)
Passed in: $4,900,000 (vendor bid)
Bidders: 0
Crowd: 52

The rain comes as the auction commences but the weather-hardened Melburnians are prepared with umbrellas. Otherwise, it is a very quiet event with one vendor bid the sum of it.

Hawthorn East

16 Airedale Avenue, Hawthorn East
Auctioneer: Lloyd Lawton
Open: $2,600,000
On market: $2,950,000
Under Hammer: $3,236,000
Bidders: 3
Crowd: 60

The three-year-old auction attendee’s t-shirt reads ‘I do all my own stunts’. Auctioneer Lloyd Lawton is doing his own too. He fronts the rough and tumble of the back and forth of late bids, big bids and small. There are no half-time breaks. The auction chugs along steadily enough to surpass the reserve figure where two keen bidders in particular battle out until a confirmed bid of $3,236,000 by Bidder 3 takes the key.

Brighton

27 Were Street, Brighton

Auctioneer: Stephen Smith

Crowd: 75

OB: $3,800,000 (vendor bid)

Result: Sold After

Bidders: 2

Bidding was not quite so energetic, more a slow start and a gentle simmer. When no initial bids were forthcoming, Stephen Smith opened with a vendor bid of $3,800,000. Eventually two bidders carried the bidding to $4,020,000 where the property was passed into Bidder 1. Negotiations moved inside and the property was later sold to bidder 1 for an undisclosed amount.

Brighton

26 St Ninians Road, Brighton

Auctioneer: Matthew Pillios

Crowd: 35-40

OB: $7,850,000 vendor bid

OM: did not reach reserve

No. Bidders: 1

Result: Sold After

Matthew Pillios started off with a vendor bid of $7,850,000. The crowd remained still and quiet and the rain began to fall. After much effort, and no bids, Matthew announced he would take a quick break. At this point a bidder offered a bid of $7,500,000. The auctioneer stepped inside to consult the vendor. Upon his return, a bid of $7,500,000 was accepted and with no further bids.

Elsternwick

21 Long Street, Elsternwick

Auctioneer: Bill Stavrakis

Crowd: 97

Opening Bid: $2,450,000

On the Market: $2,800,000

Result: Sold $3,000,000. Hammer

Bidders: 4

It was hot. It was steamy. It was busy. As soon as Bill called for bids Bidder one boomed “$2,450,000”. Promptly bidders 2, 3 and then 4 joined in and the price swiftly climbed to $2,800,000. The auctioneer stepped inside to consult the vendors. Upon his return, the property was declared on the market. Bidder one was standing front and centre, clip board in hand, witty retorts at the ready and a counter bid in an odd number against all competition. That is, until the final bid. Bidder 2 purchased the property to a round of applause.