July 1, 2022
GLEN IRIS (STONNINGTON), 11 Wandeen Road
SOI: $3,500,000 – $3,850,000
ELWOOD, 4 Heaton Avenue
SOI: $3,950,000 – $4,200,000
SANDRINGHAM, 7 Le Fevre Street
SOI: $3,200,000 – $3,350,000
MALVERN EAST, 6 Wilmot Street
SOI: $2,200,000 – $2,400,000
ARMADALE, 36 Barkly Avenue
SOI: $2,350,000 – $2,550,000
TOORAK, 658 Orrong Road
SOI: $6,100,000 – $6,600,000
BRIGHTON EAST, 142 South Road
SOI: $2,300,000 – $2,500,000
MONT ALBERT, 8 Earle Close
SOI: $2,500,000 – $2,750,000
CAMBERWELL, 15 Donna Buang Street
SOI: $3,400,000 – $3,600,000
This weekend at Inner Melbourne auctions, if you got the quote right there was bidding, mostly lacklustre, and often it started and finished on or around the agent quote – a far cry from 6 months ago.
With one Volcano, yes only one from the 33 auctions we reported on or 3% and with Ducks at 1 in 4 or 27% of auctions covered, there were clear statistical signs of continuing market weakness.
For all the BS market commentary from those who are yet to acknowledge the market change, that has been occurring since November 2021 and this last week are now talking about balance or rebalancing, we say:
When you are on a chair having too many drinks and then you find yourself on the floor – you haven’t rebalanced, you have fallen.
GLEN IRIS 17 Watson Street. SOI: $2,000,000 – $2,200,000. Steve Burke. Crowd: 50
Opening: $2,000,000. On Market: $2,210,000. Under Hammer: $2,345,000. Bidders: 2
Welcome to the 100 Auction Test for Top End Inner Melbourne – second week of 5 weeks of reporting on the 2nd of 4 majors for 2022 – the May Season.
Each major goes for 5 weeks with pregame, 3 weeks of reporting and then post game.
Week 2 (this weekend) we are specifically looking at bidders, where they are and where they are not – for without them this is no market to report on, no property sport.
Those new to marketnews and not up to speed on the lingo, please look at the bottom of the scoreboard for explanations and meanings.
Today we are focusing on Bidderman or for the pc’s Bidderman and Bidderwoman or Bidderperson – but let’s go with Bidderman and generic to man or woman.
Bidderman is a measurement of bidders and is the most dynamic measurement of the health of a market – more so than clearance rates or median price movements. It’s also the most accurate short term predictor and a stat that can be broken down the easiest and still mean a lot, on many different PPPs or Price, Property Type and Positional segments.
We luv ya Bidderman and Bidderwoman!
CAMBERWELL 9 Fairfield Avenue. SOI: $3,900,000 – $4,290,000. Sophie Su.
Crowd: 30. Opening Bid: $3,900,000. Bidders: 4. After Auction: $undisc
Bidderman truly tells you the state of the market when portrayed accurately. Invented in 2008 when bidder numbers were not even counted and now it’s the gold standard of market measurement. Like anything good in real estate, it’s copied and sometimes distorted.
In its correct form on a good sample size, Bidderman is the amount of bidders / amount of auctions. You get a quotient usually between 1 and 3 eg between an average of 1 bidder per auction and 3 bidders per auction. Our sample is 100 auctions over 3 weeks, same 4 seasonal times each year.
At Melbourne’s Top End, anything below mid 1’s is a falling market. In the GFC it was 0.8. Anything mid 1’s to high 1’s is somewhat a balanced market. Around 2 is a rising price market and towards 3 and above is on fire, as we had in 2015/16 and much of Lockdowns 3-6.
Our additional suggestions are to compare the stat to the previous measurement period and to consider stock levels in your thoughts – very low stock can distort Bidderman a bit and of course the actual quotient itself – two measurement periods of 0.8 or 3 are not balancing markets, but two measurement periods of say 1.8 are.
BRIGHTON 14 Lorac Avenue. SOI: $3,100,000. Chris Hassall. Crowd: 80.
Opening: $3,050,000. On Market: $3,200,000. Under Hammer: $3,750,000. Bidders: 3
Bidderman is the logical predictor for buy and sells in the immediate future – the underbidders who didn’t buy, the wounded underbidders who are hurt, will go and get more $ to prevent that feeling again. Therefore, knowledge or measurements of them are very useful. The higher the Bidderman number, the more wounded underbidders AND by human nature, the more push on price in the immediate future.
And yes, the reverse is true – the more who watch and don’t bid, then the lower Bidderman. “The timids” who see no sales (stales), are less likely to go hard in the future, as their modus operandi is also about hurt and fear – but not the fear of missing out or fomo – it’s the fear of being laughed at or fobla for supposedly paying too much.
Bidderman is a momentum measurement, and as we know, the future ups and downs of property cycles are all about momentums. (last week’s marketnews on Melbourne property cycles)
MALVERN 24 Glendearg Grove. SOI: $3,300,000 – $3,500,000. Carla Fetter. Crowd: 50. Opening: $3,200,000 VB. On the Market: $3,400,000. Hammer: $3,400,000. Bidders: 2
Currently the market cycle momentum is down or falling. A week of bullshit or spin commentary from the property experts who described the market as balanced or rebalancing when they never acknowledged a 5% – 10% fall in prices from early November to now is pathetic.
Please, when the market drops down a few rungs on the price ladder, when median prices are less, when clearance rates are in the low 60’s, this is not a balanced market THIS IS A FALLING MARKET.
As we said at the top, when you are on a chair having too many drinks and then you find yourself on the floor – you haven’t rebalanced, you have fallen.
The market moves from falling to balanced when the numbers stabilize – when Bidderman moves upwards, towards 2, on a regular basis and real (proper samples) clearance rates get back into the 70’s regularly.
Why do we think it is important to acknowledge?
Acknowledge a falling market – remove the doubt and then get on with it. It’s not the falling that hinders a market, it’s the doubt that surrounds it. Reduce the doubt and denial and minds tend to stabilize more quickly from that point and then we all get on with it and its only increased transactions and productivity that will improve the market, improve our standards of living and make it more fun again.
CAMBERWELL 38 Moorhouse Street. $2,700,000 – $2,970,000. Stephen Gough.
Crowd: 80. Opening: $2,900,000. On Market: $2,995,000. Hammer: $3,015,000. Bidders: 3
Now the contradiction. We may have already stabilized.
- Prices have already fallen a fair way.
- Low Stock – words out that the market has been falling and discretionary sellers have not been entering the May market in as higher numbers as times passed. Less stock affects the number of options some buyers have and so that tends to lift Bidderman – especially on the A-Graders, as non-discretionary buyers don’t disappear – they are simply less active on B and C Graders – but they still have to buy, as their children don’t stop growing – this will eventually be reflected in an improved Bidderman and as Bidderman improves so do prices.
- We had a serious amount of activity immediately before and after Lockdown 6 and sometimes the future is dragged forward and then when you hit that future, many buyers have been satisfied and so you create a temporary hole. We may be in one.
- There are interest rate increases – but right now they are yet to bight, they are not scary for many doctors, lawyers, professional homebuyers. Their jobs markets are healthy = few professionals are seemingly fearing losing their jobs and therefore perhaps still happy to plunge into mortgage homebuying, maybe watching and waiting for now, but not for long, or maybe that wait is over.
- The foreigners, expats, migrants, rest of the world will likely be coming in the next few years, and the market knows it. Now, may simply be a blip (a good blip for buyers) – and of course, it may not, it may be several seasons and still further to go – in part world events have some sway.
So this weekend overall, the market was weak.
Bidderman will reveal all in the May Season (May 14, May 28 and June 4) after the election.
See you then, the 28th. Mal, Gina, Sim, Phoebe, Maddie, Catherine and Kathy of the reporting team at James Buy Sell and a special welcome to Rowena. Great job everybody!