May 17, 2026

Market Today – Post Budget – Real Auctions

Around the grounds in real life with Marshall White Strategies, Auction Discussions, Post Budget on the Streets of Melbourne Property

This week, six buyers told us everything you need to know about Melbourne’s market right now.

Three we bought.

Three our clients walked away from, even though we got to the altar, we didn’t exchange rings.

Not because they couldn’t afford the homes.

Not because they didn’t love the homes.

But because in today’s market, buyers are making one/two decisions above all others:

“Do I trust the price – and do I trust the agent in the process?” That is the market in 2026.

This week gave us a perfect real-world cross-section of what is actually happening across Melbourne right now – from the still-competitive $1 million to $2 million A+B Grader market, to the fragile $3 million to $5 million range, through to the near standstill above $7 million.

Last week we spoke about the confronting statistic: Only 1 in 23 homes that failed to sell during their original Feb/March campaign had subsequently sold within their quoted range – the rest haven’t sold, have been withdrawn or sold below the first quoted range.

One in twenty-three. That’s around 4%. Source Data here.

This week, we again saw exactly why.

Buyers today are incredibly price sensitive.
And on top of that, importantly, they are confidence sensitive.

If confidence disappears, so does the buyer.

Camberwell circa $4-5m

Bought Before James Buy Sell

South Yarra circa $4-5m

Bought After James Buy Sell

Surrey Hills circa $3-4m

Bought Under Hammer James Buy Sell

Three Bought. Three Didn’t.

We successfully purchased three homes for clients in the $3 million to $5 million market. And we failed to buy three others.

Interestingly, the successful transactions involved Marshall White. The unsuccessful ones did not.

And that feels like it was not accidental.

There has been a very noticeable shift in strategy, communication and professionalism. Training?

Not pressure. Not noise. Not theatre.

Just smart deal-making.

At a time when some agents are still seemingly adjusting to a softer market (like how many years do some of you need), the Marshall White teams involved understood something critical:

Today’s buyers need the price but they also need clarity, momentum and confidence.

Without those things, many deals collapse.

And we lived both types of outcomes: successful and unsuccessful in real time this week.

Let’s focus on the positive. Lets focus on the good news.

On the three actual auction deals we bought.

One before, one during and one after. One below, one in and one above the range.

We have already covered in Highfield Road Camberwell (James Tostevin and Rob Le) – bought before.

Secondly 18 Thornton Street, Surrey Hills

knocked down to us under the hammer today.

Auctioneer David Smith (good auctioneering today) with agents Nikki Van Gulik and Nicholas Franzmann (good buyer management).

We tried to buy this property before auction.

The response was clear:

“We believe there’s competition Mal. If you want it, you’ll need to compete.”

And they were right.

We competed strongly at auction, on the market at the top of the range (ethical) and we purchased the property only marginally above the underbidder.

Importantly, the price paid was not unreasonable.

This wasn’t a runaway market result – the quote was price sensitive – it was well-priced to the genuine demand.

For our clients P&E (3^rd time together and 2^nd time this cycle bidding), this deal was not just won on auction day.

It was won two weeks earlier, sitting in the client’s home for nearly two hours, discussing something much bigger than real estate.

Life.

For months we had been circling around possibilities: renovate, don’t renovate, stay, move, compromise, wait.

Eventually, the conversation became simple.

“You don’t actually want a renovation project anymore. Your children are at a different stage. Your life is at a different stage. You want a home you can move into and enjoy now.”

And if you want that then you have to pay a price – if you don’t want to pay then stay here. Yes your home has to be sold but……

This is the big deal statement in todays market – super important.

If you don’t want to then don’t, but if you do want to then you have to act, to spend – you still have to make it happen.

Once that clarity arrived, the buying decision became much easier.

That’s often what happens in this market.

The hardest part isn’t bidding.

It’s clarity.

Once buyers genuinely understand what they want, they can act decisively.

And in this market, decisive buyers still win good homes.

That was Part 1 in buying this home. Part 2 was a very difficult conversation we had on Thursday, very difficult even borderline unpleasant.

Yes you only want to spend this, yes there are more interest rate increases on the way, yes we just had a budget and…….. but P&E with what you are giving us you will not be the buyer…….we know these things.

We got $70,000 more and we went from not being the buyer to scraping home to be the buyer.

Part 3 was a particular auction bidding strategy we employed today.

Absolutely thrilled and beyond words! Thank you Mal, Sim, Kathy, and the A-team. What a day. Truly special trusting you with such significant life stages, and this place is really perfect for our family. Thanks for putting up with our wavering decision-making!! We truly couldn't have done it without you. You guys are the absolute best and we are so lucky to have you in our lives
xx E&P

I think P knows I absolutely love E and that I like him a lot as well. You do occasionally have a fav in this business - today I had 3 fav's - the other P below as well. In both cases Sim and I were engaged to buy something they really wanted first and price second. In all three cases price dominated some of the discussion and if it wasn't right, then in all 3 cases our clients would have walked away, as our other 3 did. However it was not a price that was ultimately purchased, it was in each case a beautiful family home that to use the words of P ..... spoke to her, that was purchased. Children remember their family home growing up fondly or otherwise and it affects you and your spousal relationship more than a spreadsheet...life is short and life can be good..... of course if you act....but not crazy!!

7 Hawksburn Road, South Yarra

Auctioneer the great Jack Bongiorno. Agent Abby Innes with James McCormack and the indomitable Richard Mackinnon.

P our client we’ve represented many times over many years.

She had fallen in love with the home immediately she walked into the back room.

One extraordinary rear living room – the sort of space that is genuinely difficult to replicate or find again. Personally I loved it also.

Now, our opinion on value differed somewhat from the quoted range.

And so what followed was a respectful but firm negotiation process before auction, during auction and after auction.

No theatrics. No chest beating. No rudeness or disrespect.

Just two sides working carefully through a difficult negotiation.

And that’s worth mentioning.

Because in softer markets, there’s a misconception that successful negotiations need aggression.

They don’t. 2 of the 3 buyers we worked for this week, walked away due to aggression on price and the tone.

Good negotiation in this market, not always BUT more often than not, is about understanding, timing, manners and reality.

Marshall White handled the process well. Our client believes we handled the buying strategy well.

And in the end, both parties achieved a very good outcome: an exchange!!!

That’s how good deals should happen.

Today especially with Abby and Jack the focus was on our buyer, even though it was not everything their seller wanted, it was not on another buyer who was not there, or some fictitious other who had not yet offered. I thought today was one of the more classy strategies and negotiations I have seen in many years from Marshall White - before, during and post auction. They were under the pump, but they remained impressive, as they made a very difficult deal happen. Well done to all.

In a nutshell, in a very low new stock environment there is a flattening of the fall, but we are still falling and time is on no-ones side – for buyers good stock is drying up and for sellers good buyers are only there for good value (price) and good agents (process).

What We’re Seeing Across The Market – Post budget

The market today is not one market. It’s three very different markets operating simultaneously.

$1 million to $2 million

Still highly competitive.

A and B Grader homes continue to attract multiple bidders, particularly family homes and quality turnkey stock.

$3 million to say $6 million

This is currently the most price-sensitive market in Melbourne.

Buyers are active.

But they are cautious.

Deals happen only when pricing, presentation and negotiation strategy are aligned.

Above say $7 million

Very thin.

Buyers exist, but urgency largely doesn’t.

Negotiations are elongated.

Decision-making is slower.
And failed campaigns are becoming increasingly difficult to recover.

Investors, Developers, Overseas and Expats, Chinese Aussies – these very distinct markets are going to take a lot longer to see any post budget effects as most had already “left the building” some time ago.