March 23, 2026

Malvern East: 27 Anderson Road: Dean Gilbert and Susan McGlashan. Beaten today post auction @ $2.8m. $2.7m VB Pass-in. Our clients had offered $2.4m mid week. Randall

Four auctions. Two weeks. Four misses.

Have missed at auction repeatedly in the last 2 weeks, and I wasn’t beaten by one person each time – beaten by two others on each one.

I could give you reasons. I could give you excuses. But at the end of the day – that’s on me.

Why is this important? For buyers to know that you still need to compete when the home is priced correctly.

Three finished above the quote under the hammer, one was passed in on no bids, and others emerged post-auction.

Now hold that feeling. Because here’s another fact sitting right next to it.

More than 70% of EOIs are not selling at close, and this has been consistent for 6 months. To the same point, six months after an EOI, a home has almost no chance of selling – and half are still unsold.

It’s very simple.

Homes are still being contested at auction when priced correctly and not when they are over market. Some agency clearance rates today were abysmal.

And homes are rotting on market for half a year when overpriced at an EOI or, for that matter, overpriced at auction. There are still lots of stale auction properties as well. It’s not so much about EOI as it is price. But EOI seems to be symptomatic of overpricing.

However seemingly, an EOI is suggested by an agent when he or she feels the seller’s ask is too high and the stats confirm that. It’s not about auctions are for lower-priced homes and EOIs not… nope. It’s about the agent reckoning the seller’s ask is not near market so let’s EOI and I will work on them – well it’s not working for seller or buyer or agent – because all it is doing is kicking the harder conversations can down the road and by then the buyers have already made their decision.

I used to think an Abercromby’s private auction was a joke… but in 2026, I increasingly feel it could work better than EOIs. It could offer superior transparency and be more conducive to trust and a deal. However, I still believe a buyer needs representation, as still too many “coulds.” If I wanted something real, I’d choose a private auction over an EOI. EOIs are dying for now and that’s on all of us smarties.

Whilst bidder numbers have eased a tad, especially due to more and more stock coming on, what is more important is as a group they are morphing, like balsamic in oil – congregating on good prices and missing from action on the poorly priced ones.

How do both of those things exist at the same time?

Seller’s ask. The market is price sensitive and if your ask is too high….. like if your barista said $8.00 please….. then you may have the best coffee in the world….but I’m not drinking it. If you say it’s $4,00 then I am, even if I think there may be better.

G’day Mal James and we are James Buyer Advocates.

Today, Saturday March 21, is about how to move in this market.

Price drops after a failed campaign or simply re-market with different agent same-same, as strategies, have little cut-thru except at an extreme discount – the stats don’t lie.

Here’s another stat:

A dozen sales above $10 million in Boroondara and Stonnington over Christmas till today. Surprised? I was a little.

$5 million sales at roughly two-thirds of the 2021 peak.

Nobody said the market is gone, it’s just down and continuing to fall.

That’s the “normal homes” – what about lifestyle ones like Sorrento and Portsea and the country properties flying during Covid?

That market is in the toilet. Unsold stock everywhere. Even giving it away may not find a buyer, because there simply isn’t one.

25% of COVID-peak volumes over the same Christmas period at the top end – in some area zero sales for some time. Taxes, taxes and more taxes, interest rates and the novelty has warn off – have all combined to send the lifestyle market into the freezer.

Highly priced, been to market and failed, needs renovation, development potential, quirky. Lifestyle homes even at a giveaway price still there, sometimes there is simply no market.
Not Selling

Further up and still along the bay, Brighton is limping along under a lot of Top End stock, but when you look at closely it’s actually doing OK compared to Covid 21 – possibly due to being sans the Asian migration explosion of the last 2 decades and consequently hasn’t as far to fall.

Agents in Albert Park and Middle Park are talking the high end up…. implying they are immune. My stats show an actual drop off the COVID peak- down by ½ to 2/3. Good stories, not supported by fact.

And me personally? I just pulled my own home after an uninspiring off-market month. Not the agent’s fault. No buyers for what my home actually is, a less than perfect, obviously overpriced potential growth zone development site.

Off market test worked. No point burning $30,000 on a public campaign and embarrassingly myself further, to confirm what the market has already told me loudly.

Ready to move in, priced to sell, closer to the median of the precinct.
Selling

Hampton: 76 Thomas Street Samuel McNeilage, Kate Strickland, Stephen Smith. On Market at $3m. Under the Hammer $3.08m. Didn’t get a bid in. Kathy

Under $1.5 million — still moving. Priced right, liveable, good agent. It sells strongly. That’s houses, apartments a different story and that report by a well known property advisory firm implying apartments had room to move…..mmmmm very select use of data and opinions I reckon. The investor market feels shot to pieces for now.

$2 to $4 million — meringue like. Some firm ground, but largely soft and sticky. Sweet spots exist if the property is ready to move-in and the price is competition creating.

$4 million and above — here on Everest from Base camp to the Summit the air is thin. EOI clearance at 30%. Six months later, half still unsold.

These graphs are both right below, even though they are totally different – the lower end ($1.5m) on the left and the top end ($4m plus) on the right.

Two forces built the Top End market this millennium. One has disappeared and one is thinking about it.

In 2008, during the GFC, we all watched buyers from Asia walk into Balwyn and Kew and reprice land on the fly. No hesitation. Bang, bang, bang. They didn’t just buy – they transformed the top end of Melbourne. That force, more than anything else, is why we missed the GFC here in Melbourne and capital growth roared ahead of almost all other countries.

In 2016 there were 30,000-plus FIRB requests from China alone. By 2021 a trickle.

Government taxes, public sentiment, China’s own property market retreating. Full on to full off in four years.

Right now in Balwyn – a dozen Georgian homes on market for a lot longer than three months. One has sold since we first reported it. Our clients bought it. The other fourteen? Still there.

Then came COVID in 2020 and disguised a retreating Asian demand problem into an all in Aussie lifestyle speculative casino - temporarily hiding that the OS Asian buyer had already left the building.

Speculation entered.

Speculation exited.

Many of the remaining local buyers at the Top End started to ask questions from Cup day 2021 – the turn.

Real demand is what’s left.

And today in 2026 real demand is considerably thinner at the higher end.

What was the other force?… you, the local market….buoyed by American technology investments, lower interest rates, controlled inflation and good business….you’re still here……..but you’ve had a few kicks in the guts lately…..Queensland looks attractive (OMG an attractive Queenslander) ….and now the world is becoming an unhappy place for some big boys……what’s next?

Let’s see what Scott, Helen and Andrew say.

Three Agents. Thirty Seconds Each.

I asked Scott Patterson from Kay & Burton, Helen Yan from Ray White, and Andrew McCann from Jellis Craig the same questions. Short war or long? Top end outcome either way? Best advice right now?

The real pressure is in the $2 million to $7 million range. Those buyers are wealthy, but still rate-sensitive and confidence-sensitive. Above $7 million, fewer buyers—but some are opportunistic. His warning: quality still draws buyers, but vendors must not overreach.
Scott Patterson

This is not panic. It is delay. Buyers are still there, but they are slower. Campaigns stretch. Negotiations widen. Her point: focus on fundamentals, not headlines.
Helen Yan

Global instability may actually strengthen Melbourne’s long-term appeal. Safety. Lifestyle. Distance from conflict. His point: top-end Melbourne remains a global lifestyle asset over time.
Andrew McCann

Scott in full

• Do you see the war being short or long? Unfortunately, the unrest in the Middle East is likely to continue beyond the short term. This is creating global tension and uncertainty like nothing we have seen for a long, long time. The stakes are extremely high and the ramifications if things escalate are far reaching.
• If long, what happens to the Top End market? I think the middle market ($2m-$7m) will be affected the most by a long term war. It will not be great for the top-end market ($7m+) however buyers with bigger budgets may see it as an opportunity to upgrade whilst others are hesitating. Inflation is the big concern and the impact that will have economically. Over the years we have always seen buyers gravitate to quality listings no matter what the market conditions so I believe this will continue but Vendors have to be careful not to overreach with their price expectations.
• If short, what is the likely Top End outcome? Hopefully it will be a return to business as usual if the war is short term however I think the current crisis shows how quickly the local markets react and things can turn which exposes how vulnerable we really are to world events.
• And your best advice to buyers and sellers navigating disruption and uncertainty. Proceed with caution however don’t let this stop you from making decisions for the long term future for your family. Melbourne is poised for growth so once this disruption passes and we can get the economic management of Victoria back under control the only way is up for property values.

Helen in full

1. At this stage it is difficult to predict the exact duration. Geopolitical conflicts can evolve quickly, but they can also become prolonged depending on diplomatic developments. For property markets, the key impact tends to come from how the situation influences economic confidence, interest rates, and global financial stability rather than the conflict itself.

2. If the conflict becomes prolonged, high-end property markets may experience more cautious buyer behaviour. Wealthy buyers often delay major decisions during periods of global uncertainty. Historically, the top end of the market has tended to remain relatively resilient, as buyers in this segment are often less sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations. However, during periods of uncertainty, transaction activity may slow as buyers take a more cautious approach.

3. If the conflict resolves relatively quickly, market sentiment could stabilise and confidence may return. In that case, the top end of the market may continue its current trajectory, supported by limited supply, strong demand in desirable suburbs, and long-term lifestyle appeal.

4. For both buyers and sellers, the most important approach during uncertain periods is to remain focused on fundamentals. Buyers should assess long-term affordability and the quality of the asset rather than reacting to short-term headlines. Sellers should ensure pricing expectations are aligned with current market conditions and work with experienced professionals to manage the campaign effectively.

Best regards,

Helen

Andrew in full

• Do you see the war being short or long? I’m not really well qualified to say short or long.. but I would hope it’s short and have a personal view that it’s likely not long term.
• If long, what happens to the Top End market? I think the war/ and any global conflict only ever makes countries like Australia, and Cities like Melbourne more popular for overseas investment and the longer we have offshore conflict for, I believe the stronger our premium end of the market will be.
• If short, what is the likely Top End outcome? Long or short.. The fact we are seeing volatility in the middle east and other parts of the world will only continue to highlight how far removed we are from these situations and what wonderful lifestyle and security we offer here in Melbourne and Australia for the people who live here currently, the expat communities who start to reconsider options and those at the high end of the global market who would now consider Australia an incredible place to live and invest.
• And your best advice to buyers and sellers navigating disruption and uncertainty. We’ve experienced a lot of volatility since the COVID 19 Pandemic with war and international conflict, along with economic ups and downs and a roller coaster of an interest rate cycle. My advice to anyone who is looking to navigate a buying or selling decision is to remember the long term goal they have for their lifestyle and family needs and why they are currently “in the market” (whether that be an upsize, downsize or lifestyle and location change). Property is a long play and whilst an important investment to get right, the real goal with any sale or purchase should be to satisfy a better life and lifestyle so remain focused on the purpose and goal and think less about the volatility and things that are and will always be out of your control. Play the long game..

Fair. But first as a doctor, a finance professional, or anyone with a good steady job and kids who are coming, growing, or leaving – what are you actually trying to achieve?

Which one are you?

The Speculator.

For the first time in years, you have the genuine upper hand and it feels like it may stay that way for some time.

This week we offered $2.4 million on 27 Anderson Street, Malvern East, guided at $2.7 to $2.95 million. It sold at auction for $2.8 million. Our client saw value only in the land, for a new home. The ultimate buyer saw value in both the home and the land. Both were right. Same property. Same day. $400,000 apart. That’s this market.

Offer hard. Don't apologise. And if you miss…. go again. Get your price, and it may be a long way from the agent's guide.

We share this not to highlight any incompetence in our pricing or our judgment, we don’t think either is true. We share it to show you that this is a market for speculators and bargain hunters. You may suffer some flesh wounds along the way. Keep going.

And do not buy rubbish just to get a deal. A-grade position, strong land, long-term desirability. Number 27 was B-grade, slope, no front crossover, but with no heritage overlay it had genuine potential. It also had a price limit. Get those limits wrong and you don’t just miss growth. You go backwards.

The Investor.

Almost extinct. We are simply not getting these calls from you anymore.

Property managers are haemorrhaging portfolios as their clients leave in droves saying sell, sell, sell.

The last decade has seen tax upon tax upon tax. In the past, capital growth covered all those evils. But flat growth for a decade, trickier tenancy laws, and a performing share market have made residential property particularly unattractive for investors right now.

If you do want to invest go for cash flow, dual income, Airbnb yield, creative structure.

And buy so well on price that you create your own margin, your own long-term capital growth. The market will not hand it to you.

The Family Upgrader.

This is many of you – our true client base.

And this genuinely may be the best window in years, particularly if you’re a medical specialist, in finance, on a steady income, or a parent who can actually move and wants to.

A property that was $5 million may now be $4 million. Yours was $1.8 million, now maybe $2.2 million at a push. Your trade-up gap just compressed by $1.4 million. That gap is what you trade when you upgrade. Selling at the resilient lower end. Buying at the falling top end.

That’s leverage. That’s the whole game.

Buy well. Good street over great house in a bad street. Land content over new builds – let it owe you as little as possible. Know the real market, not the advertised one. And know why you’re buying – lose that and you can get the price right and still make the wrong decision.

Get an expert. Get an advocate - if not us, then someone else genuinely professional. Not the people-pleaser. No, the one who has bought and sold many times, and made money and happiness for many people. Sorry I digressed into self.

This week we have five new buy-sell advocacy jobs lined up – Camberwell, South Yarra twice, Balwyn, Hampton. The market is breathing. But it is demanding something the good times never required.

Precision. Patience. And smarter, alternative ways to sell!

Not what your property was worth in 2021. Not what the neighbour got eighteen months ago. We can’t help you with that and frankly, the stats are showing nobody can. Not even the greatest salespeople of all time, though they’ll happily tell you who they are.

That’s the deal right now, up and down, all rolled into one. Sell solidly. Buy very well. The 2026 winning combination and it is very possible.

The market is not negotiating with wishful thinking. But smart thinking is working just fine.

Realign – top-end growth over the last decade is closer to zero than any other number.

Meaning price is critical to your result – if you are buying $1million above market because you are the only one at that level, then like a slow air leak you will find out in the future you have a big problem on resale.

Regulate – don’t pinball between panicked opinions. Stay steady on your plan…a good one…or get help getting a good plan…..one that will look after your family via a good buy rather than people please the agent and buy a shocker nobody else wanted.

Relocate rather than renovate – if your renovation is costing you $4 million for a $2 million rise in value, over three painful years, with kids getting older and a mortgage getting heavier – perhaps just don’t. Move sideways or slightly up. Better home. No blowout debt. And spend the savings on first class airfares with/without the kids, school fees for free, for all for the next decade.

Renovate rather than Relocate – if your renovation is costing you $750,000 for a $2 million rise in value, over six months and you love where you live…. then do it baby and save the moving costs (at least 10%) and be happy….but do it……those girls need space when they hit their teens and hey, so do you!!! Don’t let the world stop you.

Reach – reach as hard and as far as you want to. I’ve missed four in a fortnight. I won’t miss them all the time. I don’t give up, I don’t even change much….just a review, a learning if it’s there and then go again.

The market is still full of quirks but it is falling and that means buying opportunities.

Why can’t you be in a better home for less money in this market?

That’s my genuine question to you.

We love this job. Let’s go.

I was speaking with a veteran agent this week, and she said government rules are destroying auctions. I nearly fell over. We’re being more regulated because, as an industry, we cannot self-regulate a perfectly decent and transparent transactional system. No, it’s not about them, folks. It’s about us. Look inward, not outward. We’ve been sabotaging our own workplace for years, with no overall benefit to anyone. Quoting rules and 7-day reserves need serious consideration and probably our support, because too many of us are still trying to “game” the system, to the detriment of buyers, sellers, and ourselves.

James AI Policy – Ratings and Marketnews - click down for policy

AI & Ratings Policy – Mal James

Our Philosophy

At James we believe in the intelligent use of AI for analysis, automation and clarity.

AI formed part of my Masters completed at RMIT in 2024. Beyond real estate, we also use AI in our Sub-Saharan Child Surgery Program, which employs many people and has helped more than 1,400 children receive life-changing surgery.

I have worked as a property advocate for 25 years.

During that time: